Reaching Cournot-Walras Equilibrium S. D. Flåm and K. Gramstad Reaching Cournot-Walras Equilibrium S. D. Flåm and K. Gramstad March 2, 2015 Abstract. Considered here are Cournot oligopolists who exchange some production factors - say, pollution permits. On one hand, as a producer, each player is construed as foresighted, swift, and strategic in exploiting his market power. On the other hand, as factor owner, the same agent is viewed as somewhat shortsighted, slow and non-strategic in adapting his holdings. Thus, production and imperfect competition become parts of an exchange economy. The disparate features of the composed economy motivate a solution concept which blends Cournot equilibrium with that of Walras. The novelty is to show that integrated equilibrium may obtain by repeated play along two totally di¤erent time scales: a rapid one for quick attainment of (contingent) Cournot outcomes, and a slow one for stepwise emergence of factor prices. The only vehicle is bilateral exchange of factor endowments. Key words: Cournot oligopoly, Walras equilibrium, coupling constraints, repeated play. JEL Classi…cation: C72, D51, L13 1. Introduction Various notions of equilibrium are chief concepts in economic theory. For good reasons, a quali…ed outcome is seen as a steady state - a con…guration from which no concerned party wants to deviate. Ex post, if equilibrium already prevails, it appears natural to view its intrinsic stability in the said manner. Ex ante, one wonders though, how might equilibrium be attained?1 Motivated by that question, this paper considers instances that reside at the intersection of game and market theory. Serving since long there are the models of Cournot and Walras. In the sequel, these are linked as follows. On top of a Cournot oligopoly for commodity outputs is imposed a Walrasian exchange economy for factor inputs. Accordingly, equilibrium acquires two disparate features. One is that producers, conditioned by their factor holdings, choose a Cournot-Nash strategy pro…le. The other is that, having chosen such a pro…le, all agents should value the said holdings in the same manner. That is, they should see equal factor prices. Economics Department, University of Bergen. Flåm thanks: Finansmarkedsfondet, The Arne Ryde Foundation, and the NILS program for partial support - and Professor M. A. López at the University of Alicante for great hospitality. 1 Game theorists have long wrestled with this pressing question; see Fudenberg (1998), Hart & Mas-Collel (2013), Peyton Young (1998, 2004). Most studies deal with …nite-strategy noncooperative games. It seems fair to say that there are no unifying results on learning to play Nah equilibrium. 1 Reaching Cournot-Walras Equilibrium 2 Equilibrium of this sort can hardly be brought down by a single shot. Agents need time; they must learn to play - and to do so without assistance of any director. Moreover, as long as factor holdings change, so does the stage game as well. It’s presumed here that producers be so competent and experienced as to …nd Cournot equilibrium quickly. Also by presumption, each player values diverse production factors on line, always using personal bid-ask prices. Repeatedly, two random players meet - or are matched - to contemplate exchange of production factors. If their valuations di¤er, they make a direct deal, most often facilitated by side payments. Eventually, when valuations coincide across players, the factor market settles. Will full equilibrium …nally obtain? That question is explored below. In doing so, this paper di¤ers from many others studies on learning of strategic behavior (Hart and Mas-Colell 2013), (Peyton Young 2004). Notably, it goes beyond …nitestrategy instances, and it allows coupling constraints. Neither …ctitious play nor regret matching is an issue. No player needs know his rivals or their actions - present or past. And nobody must form forecasts or statistics. Instead, it su¢ ces that everyone be driven by own margins. Broadly, an oligopolist should adapt until he sees zero net margins for products and common margins for inputs. Other studies also emphasize the chief role of margins in pushing adjustments of play. Rosen’s (1965) paper is closest to ours in that players are guided by …rstorder di¤erential data. Here, however, classical di¤erentiability is not needed. And most important: exchange makes coordination super‡uous. At every stage, players maintain feasibility by themselves. The paper is planned as follows. Setting the frames, Section 2 recalls games with coupling constraints. It characterizes what is called a normalized equilibrium and inquires about its stability. Section 3 specializes the said constraints to be purely additive. Motivated by environmental games, many of which feature exchange and externalities, that section de…nes a solution concept which integrates Cournot-Nash equilibrium with that of Walras. To prepare for repeated play, Section 4 deals with just one exchange between just two agents. Section 5 models play as a discrete-time process driven by di¤erences in agents valuations of factor inputs. Section 6 provides numerical illustrations by considering workhorse oligopolies. Section 7 concludes by relating to the literature. 2. Games with Coupling Constraints This section …xes the frames and the notation. It also recalls some material concerned with description and stability of solutions. Henceforth accommodate a …xed …nite ensemble I of noncooperative economic agents. Member i 2 I makes a choice xi ; codi…ed as a vector in some Euclidean space Xi . When facing the pro…le x i := (xj )j6=i of his rivals, he gets pecuniary payo¤ i (xi ; x i ). Choice is subject to coupling constraints in that each pro…le x = (xi ) must belong 3 Reaching Cournot-Walras Equilibrium to a non-rectangular subset X of the product space X := i2I Xi .2 That is, X is a strict subset of the box i2I fxi : (xi ; x i ) 2 X for some x i g : Since payo¤s are transferable, the bivariate function X x^; x 2 X 7! (^ x; x) := xi ; x i ) i (^ i2I records aggregate payo¤. De…nition. Declare x = (xi ) 2 X a Nash normalized equilibrium i¤ ( ) X (x; x) = max xi ; x i ) : x^ 2 X : i (^ i2I Such an equilibrium tends to select among ordinary Nash outcomes. Proposition 2.1 (Existence of normalized equilibrium [10], [33]). Suppose the constraint set X is non-empty compact convex. Also suppose aggregate payo¤ (^ x; x) is concave in x^, jointly upper semicontinuous in (^ x; x), and separately lower semicontinuous in x: Then there exists a normalized equilibrium. The hypotheses of Proposition 2.1 are henceforth in vigor. We shall need a differential characterization of normalized equilibrium. Recall that X is a Euclidean space, with some inner product h ; i : A vector x 2 X is called a supergradient of a function f : X ! R[ f 1g at x; if f (x) is …nite and f (^ x) f (x) + hx ; x^ To signal this, write x 2 @f (x) or x 2 X X has a normal cone N (x; X) := fx 2 X : hx ; xi for all x^ 2 X. @ f (x). @x xi At any point x 2 X, the subset 0 for each 2 Xg ; composed of all vectors which point right out of X there. It’s convenient to refer to members of the partial superdi¤erentials Mi (x) := @ @ x^i xi ; x i ) jx^i =xi i (^ and M (x) := @ (^ x; x) jx^=x = @ x^ i2I Mi (x) as margins. Members of the set di¤erence M (x) N (x; X) are called essential margins. In the spirit of neoclassical economics, all essential margins should be nil in normalized equilibrium. For succinct statement of this fact, let PC [ ] denote the orthogonal projection onto a non-empty closed convex subset C of a Euclidean space 2 Few non-cooperative games are modelled with coupling constraints. Debreu (1952) is an important exception. Reaching Cournot-Walras Equilibrium 4 Proposition 2.2 (Characterizing normalized equilibrium [16]). x is a normalized equilibrium i¤ the following three equivalent statements hold for one and the same margin m 2 M (x) : The margin is nil or normal, meaning m 2 N (x; X): For each deviation, individual or joint, along any feasible direction d in the cone D(x; X) := R+ (X x) clR+ (X x) =: T (x; X); (1) the margin indicates an overall loss. That is, hm; di 0: The orthogonal projection PT (x) [ ] onto the tangent cone T (x; X) (1) yields (2) 0 = PT (x;X) [m] : Equilibrium condition (2) immediately invites use of the di¤erential system dx(t) =: x_ 2 PT (x;X) [M (x)] ; dt x(0) 2 X; (3) as an idealized model of continuous-time out-of-equilibrium play. In view of such dynamics, a normalized equilibrium x is declared asymptotically stable if x 2 X & x 6= x =) hm; x xi < 0 for each margin m 2 M (x): (4) Proposition 2.3 (Uniqueness and asymptotic stability of normalized equilibrium [11], [16]). Suppose x is asymptotically stable (4). Normalized equilibrium is then unique and globally attractive for system (3).3 Its stability notwithstanding, system (3) can hardly depict practical play. The main reasons are two. First, real agents make discrete steps in discrete time. Accordingly, as brought out in Section 5, their moves will be depicted in such manner. Second, for implementation - and for the narrative - it’s essential that behavior be agent-based, directed by no outsider or extra agent. On precisely this point, as model of noncoordinated interaction, (3) appears self-defeating. To wit, who makes the projection PT (x;X) [ ] if any? To circumvent this hurdle, we ask: can players, by themselves, dispense with joint projection? It turns out that indeed, they can. Speci…cally, the subsequent sections address instances which render it super‡uous. 3. Games with Additive Coupling This section specializes the joint constraints to have additive form, and it de…nes a solution concept which blends Cournot-Nash equilibrium with that of Walras. Henceforth the strategy xi = (yi ; zi ) of any player i 2 I has two quite di¤erent components. The …rst, yi ; is seen as a production plan, chosen without any concern for 3 Proposition 2.3 adds to the pioneering paper of Rosen’s (1965). Related studies, all using various forms of monotonicity, include [10], [11] and [13]. 5 Reaching Cournot-Walras Equilibrium overall e¢ ciency or cooperation. In contrast, the second component, zi ; is construed as a perfectly transferable commodity bundle, contingent claim, or resource vector. Alternatively, it de…nes user rights to natural resources.4 While purely additive, the coupling constraint a¤ects only the transferable items zi . Speci…cally, players act in the domain ) ( X X X := x = (xi ) : xi = (yi ; zi ) 2 Yi Zi & zi ei : i2I i2I Throughout Yi ; Zi are non-empty compact convex subsets of Euclidean spaces Yi ; Z respectively. Agent i holds an endowment ei 2 Zi Z. The ambient endowment space Z is common and ordered in the customary componentwise manner. By assumption, transferable items create no externalities in that i (x) = i (y; z) = i (y; zi ) = Further, by assumption, P Pat least one agent i has5 the equality i2I zi = i2I ei will always hold. i (yi ; y i ; zi ): i (yi ; y i ; zi ) increasing in zi : Hence As announced, the solution concept is a mixed one. It embodies features found in the equilibria of Cournot, Nash and Walras: De…nition (Cournot-Nash-Walras equilibrium). A pro…le x = (xi ) 2 X; alongside a price vector p 2 Z; constitutes an equilibrium if nobody regrets his choice. That is, given factor price p; i (yi ; y i ; zi ) hp; zi i = max f i (^ yi ; y i ; z^i ) Further, all factor markets clear in so far as p 0; X zi i2I X ei ; i2I and hp; z^i i : y^i 2 Yi ; z^i 2 Zi g 8i: * p; X i2I ei X i2I zi + = 0: (5) (6) In principle, equilibrium is easily recognized. It prevails when agents’essential margins are nil or equal to common prices. Indeed, it follows directly from (5): Proposition 3.1 (Characterizing equilibrium). Let Xi := Yi alongside a price p 0 is an equilibrium i¤ (6) holds and (0; p) 2 @ @xi i (x) N (xi ; Xi ) for each i: Zi . A pro…le x 2 X (7) 4 Important instances comprise transfers of …sh quotas, production allowances, pollution permits, or rights to water usage. In either case, reallocation of initial endowments may improve payo¤s and entail partial e¢ ciency. P P 5 Alternatively, absent such monotonicity, one may require that Pi2I zi = i2I ei in the de…nition of X: In either case, i might depend on the aggregate holding i2I zi : Since the latter sum is constant, it has no e¤ect on behavior or welfare. Reaching Cournot-Walras Equilibrium 6 The above de…nition of equilibrium would comply with the preceding one on normalized instances if some extra (exogenous and …ctitious) player chooses p 0 so as to minimize the value of excess supply. In that optic, under reasonable assumptions, existence of a solution is guaranteed; see [16]. We shall side-step the attending mathematical issues and rather ask right to the point: could the agents themselves by way or repeated exchanges - make a clearing price vector p emerge endogenously? The subsequent two sections provide constructive and positive answers. 4. Bilateral Exchange For preparation of the main model of play, this section isolates a recurrent episode in which two agents - by themselves and between themselves - exchange production factors.6 Their direct deal is driven only by di¤erences in their local and personal valuations of marginal transfers. For that reason, exchange is moderate and somewhat myopic. Recall that each factor bundle belongs to a common Euclidean space Z, endowed with inner product h ; i and associated norm k k : Fix two agents i; j who hold respective factor bundles zi 2 Zi and zj 2 Zj . Suppose a vector 2 Z be transferred to i from j: In case is non-zero; it de…nes a unit direction d := = k k, and step-size s := k k along that direction. Consequently, with no loss of generality, a transfer = sd yields updated holdings zi+1 := zi + sd 2 Zi and zj+1 := zj sd 2 Zj (8) where s kdk > 0 =) kdk = 1: The …rst inclusion in (8) implies that d belongs to the cone Di (zi ) := fr(^ zi zi ) : r 2 R+ & z^i 2 Zi g =: R+ (Zi zi ) composed of all feasible directions for agent i at zi : Quite similarly, the second inclusion tells that d 2 Dj (zj ): Hence, for the feasibility of exchange, it’s necessary that d 2 Dij (zi ; zj ) := Di (zi ) \ Dj (zj ): Which directions in Dij (zi ; zj ) are desirable? To address that question, call pi = gi ni with gi 2 @ @zi i (y; zi ) and ni 2 N (zi ; Zi ) (9) an essential margin or personal factor price as it applies for agent i at (y; zi ). Since y is …xed here, it simpli…es notation to write i (zi ) := i (y; zi ) and j (zj ) := j (y; zj ). Proposition 4.1 (On bilateral exchange). When agents i; j own respectively zi 2 Zi and zj 2 Zj , they cannot make a proper trade in case the cone of feasible directions is degenerate, meaning Dij (zi ; zj ) = f0g. Moreover, they ought not make any trade 6 In a seminal paper Feldman (1973) modelled bilateral exchange as the solution of a cooperative two-person game. Our approach, being less stringent, allows that interlocutors contend with betterments. 7 Reaching Cournot-Walras Equilibrium if some personal prices pi and pj coincide. The reason is that (8) and (9) then yield +1 +1 i (zi ) + j (zj ) i (zi ) + j (zj ): Proof. For the second statement, suppose partial supergradients gi 2 @ gj 2 @ j (zj ) and normals ni 2 N (zi ; Zi ), nj 2 N (zj ; Zj ) satisfy pi = gi Since i ni = gj i (zi ); nj = pj : is concave, zi+1 = zi + d and d 2 Di (zi ) imply +1 i (zi ) i (zi ) + hgi ; di Quite likewise, zj+1 = zj + ( d) and +1 j (zj ) + hgi ; di hni ; di : d 2 Dj (zj ) imply hgj ; di j (zj ) i (zi ) j (zj ) hgj ; di + hnj ; di : Adding theses inequalities yields +1 i (zi ) + +1 j (zj ) i (zi ) + j (zj ) + hgi ni ; di hgj nj ; di = i (zi ) + j (zj ): This completes the proof. The upshot is that i and j ought trade only when they see some leeway but no common prices - that is, when Dij (zi ; zj ) 6= f0g & @ @zi i (y; zi ) N (zi ; Zi ) \ @ @zj j (y; zj ) N (zj ; Zj ) = ;: (10) On such an occasion, it appears reasonable that a transfer, to i from j; be aligned with a direction pi pj d= , (11) kpi pj k which features the di¤erence in personal prices pi and pj (9). To argue in supplementary manner for format (11), note that the joint payo¤ i + j has steepest slope Sij (zi ; zj ) := sup 0 i (zi ; d) 0 j (zj ; + d) : d 2 Dij (zi ; zj ) & kdk 1 ; (12) 0 i (zi ; d) denoting the standard directional derivative. Let Pij be the orthogonal projection (in the factor endowment space Z) onto the closed convex tangent cone Tij (zi ; zj ) := clDij (zi ; zj ): That operation links (11) to (12) - as is clari…ed next: Proposition 4.2 (On steepest slopes and minimal deviations of margins [17]). The steepest slope (12) equals Sij (zi ; zj ) = min fkPij [gi = min fkpi gj ]k : gi 2 @ i (zi ); gj 2 @ j (zj )g pj k : pi ; pj being personal prices (9)g : Reaching Cournot-Walras Equilibrium 8 Thus, a best direction (11) obtains when personal prices pi ; pj minimize the last expression. The steepest slope partly justi…es players’use of format (11). It also serves to identify how and when trade might bene…t both parties: Proposition 4.3 (On bene…cial barters [17]). For any factor 'ij 2 (0; 1), whenever (zi ; zj ) 2 Zi Zj and Sij (zi ; zj ) > 0; there are updates (8) which solve the strict inequalities +1 i (zi ) + +1 j (zj ) i (zi ) j (zj ) 'ij sSij (zi ; zj ) > 0 and +1 i (zi ) + i with monetary side-payments > i; i (zi ) j and +1 j (zj ) + j > j (zj ) that sum to zero. Together, Propositions 4.2&3 open up for manifold modes of direct exchange at any stage. Trade could unfold in parallel or asynchronously, be guided by steepest slopes, and be governed by diverse protocols on who will meets next whom. For more on this, see [17]. However, from here onwards, to accommodate humanlike players, nobody are compelled to compute steepest slopes. 5. Repeated Play Using bilateral exchange as vehicle and workhorse, this section casts repeated play as a discrete-time process. Time ‡ows on two di¤erent clocks. One ticks after attainment of Cournot type equilibrium; the other ticks after completion of a bilateral exchange. The two clocks are put in separate motion because condition (5), as it applies to agent i; involves two choices, namely: yi and zi : For motivation, suppose (the oligopolistic variable) yi already be chosen, and that zi be (re)considered thereafter. More precisely, prior to any (re)consideration of zi ; let yi ; y i ; zi ) : y^i 2 Yi g for all i: (13) i (yi ; y i ; zi ) = max f i (^ (13) …xes a crucial feature of repeated play as modelled here. Speci…cally, by hypothesis, given any endowment pro…le (zi ), the agents need negligible time to …nd a Cournot-Nash equilibrium (13). The latter is contingent and partial, however, being restricted to (yi ) and depending on (zi ): In contrast, while still out of full-‡edged equilibrium, players adapt their factor holdings stepwise - with notable caution and moderation. To capture this behavioral feature, suppose agents i; j; meet - or are matched - on some platform, at some stage. On that occasion, they hold respective factor endowments zi , zj and personal prices (9): @ @ N (zi ; Zi ) and pj 2 N (zj ; Zj ): (14) pi 2 i (y; zi ) j (y; zj ) @zi @zj If pi = pj ; inclusions (14) and Proposition 4.1 rationalize their actual holdings. That is, no direct exchange is worth their while. Otherwise, if (10) holds, a transfer to 9 Reaching Cournot-Walras Equilibrium i from j appears justi…able. Moreover, let the transfer be aligned with the price di¤erence pi pj ; see (11). To appreciate this suggestion, consider an instance where zi 2 intZi and zj 2 intZi . Then, both normal cones N (zi ; Zi ); N (zj ; Zj) in (14) reduce to f0g : If moreover, di¤erentiability be granted, the price di¤erence equals @ @zi i (y; zi ) @ @zj j (y; zj ) When zi resides at the boundary of Zi , agent i wants to suppress normal components of @z@ i i (y; zi ), if any, these pointing right out of Zi at zi .7 In short, d is aligned with the di¤erence in (partial but) essential margins. Proposition 4.2 provides more detail about a best direction d of transfer. And Proposition 4.3 clari…es that side payments may lubricate the exchange mechanism. The essence is that the net recipient of a factor is the one who appreciates it most. Synthesizing these aspects, we cast repeated play as a discrete-time process: P PStart at any allocation i 7! zi 2 Zi of the transferable goods such that i2I zi = i2I ei For example, let zi = ei : Find a contingent Cournot equilibrium in y = (yi ) (13), depending on the actual allocation z = (zi ): Randomly select two agents i; j with uniform probabilities. Actually, these agents hold transferable endowments zi 2 Zi and zj 2 Zj respectively. Given y = (yi ); update their holdings by (8), using a step-size s 0 and a direction d = pi pj with pi ; pj satisfying (14). Return to …nd a contingent equilibrium (13). Continue until convergence. Out of equilibrium, during repeated play, instead of (7), it always holds (0; pi ) 2 @ @xi i (x) N (xi ; Xi ) (15) with personal prices pi which do not all coincide. At each stage, since yi is conditionally optimal, each agent i sees a partial margin @y@ i i which is normal to Yi at yi - or it’s nil; that is @ 02 N (yi ; Yi ): i (x) @yi Simultaneously, in terms of factors, he has an essential margin pi 2 7 @ @zi i (y; zi ) N (zi ; Zi ): In geometric terms, regarding zi as his actual origin or point of reference, agent i would project @ any candidate gradient gi 2 @z i (y; zi ) onto Zi : i Reaching Cournot-Walras Equilibrium 10 It’s tacitly understood that together these partial margins margins satisfy (15). This requirement is super‡uous when i is di¤erentiable xi . Theorem 5.1 (Convergence of non-coordinated play [16]). Suppose repeated play, as modelled above, proceeds at discrete stages k = 0; 1; ::: with step-sizes sk 0; chosen by the agents themselves, which satisfy 1 X sk = +1 and k=0 1 X s2k < +1. (16) k=0 Then, under asymptotic stability (4), the generated sequence (xk ) converges to the unique normalized equilibrium. Corollary 5.2 (On common factor pricing). Besides the hypotheses in Theorem 5.1 suppose equilibrium x = (y; z) is such that some agent i has zi 2 intZi and i (y; ) Gâteaux di¤erentiable at zi : Then there is a unique equilibrium price in the factor market. Proof. Since the particular agent i has N (zi ; Zi ) = f0g ; posit p := @ @zi i (y; zi ) N (zi ; Zi ): From Proposition 4.2 follows that Sij (zi ; zj ) = 0 i¤ p equals some personal price pj of agent i that all Sij (zi ; zj ) = 0. Consequently, the intersection h j: Proposition 4.3 implies \j @z@ j j (y; zj ) N (zj ; Zj ) reduces to a singleton, namely p: 6. A Cournot Oligopoly For illustration, this section considers multi-output, multi-input Cournot oligopolies which feature transferable production factors. Firm i 2 I produces marketable output yi , using factor bundle zi ; at cost ci (yi ; zi ); to get payo¤ i (yi ; y i ; zi ) := hP (yI ); yi i ci (yi ; zi ): P All spaces Yi coincide, yI := i2I yi denotes total supply, and h ; i is the standard inner product. The ”inverse demand curve” yI 7! P (yI ) reports the price vector at which output markets clear. If factor bundles were traded at price p; a price-taking …rm i would take home overall pro…t i (yi ; y i ; zi ) + hp; ei zi i : For existence of equilibrium, note that rectangular domains of the type Yi = [0; yi ] Y and Zi = [0; eI ] Z are compact convex. PThe vector yi 0 denotes here the production capacity of …rm i, whereas eI := i2I ei 0 is the aggregate endowment. For the other hypotheses in Proposition 2.1, let cost ci (yi ; zi ) be jointly convex, and output pricing P ( ) be concave and di¤erentiable with P 0 + P 0T negative Reaching Cournot-Walras Equilibrium 11 semide…nite. Under these conditions, i (yi ; y i ; zi ) becomes concave in xi = (yi ; zi ); see [33] or Lemma 7.5 in [18]. For a case with joint transportation, see [12]. As one might expect, cost sharing becomes (conditionally) e¢ cient - as in Montgomery (1972): Proposition 6.1 (E¢ cient sharing). In equilibrium x = (xi ) factors are e¢ ciently allocated. That is, the factor price regime p satis…es @ ci (yi ; zi ) 2 @zi p 8i: Ni (zi ; Zi ) Cournot and CO2 emissions. Simplifying further, let there be just one marketable product and one transferable factor. For additional simplicity, presume di¤erentiable data and interior solutions. In equilibrium, there is P P 9 market balance: = i2I zi = i2I ei ; optimal output from each producer: P (yI ) + P 0 (yI )yi = @y@ i ci (yi ; zi ); (17) ; @ and common factor pricing: c (y ; z ) = p. @zi i i i While still out-of-equilibrium, the …rst two conditions in (17) hold, but factor pricing isn’t uniform. Therefore, at any stage, two agents i; j, for which := @ cj (yj ; zj ) @zj @ ci (yi ; zi ) 6= 0; @zi undertake an exchange (8) with step-size s 0 and transfer direction 8 if zi ; zj > 0 > > < minf ; 0g if zi > 0; zj = 0 d := maxf ; 0g if zi = 0; zj > 0 > > : 0 otherwise: A suitable step-size takes the form s := min fsk ; s^g with s^ := zi =d if d < 0 zj =d if d > 0 In line with the arguments above, for any feasible factor allocation z = (zi ); players easily …nd Cournot equilibrium (13). Some numerical simulations. Let Cournot oligopolist i 2 I = f1; 2; 3g put out yi 2 R+ , using input zi 2 R+ , at cost ci (yi ; zi ) = i yi 1 + zi : 12 Reaching Cournot-Walras Equilibrium P The inverse demand curve for products is linear: P (yI ) = 1 yI where yI = i2I yi . To ensure interior solutions, let each i 1=3. Firms come immediately up with Cournot output levels ! X 1 i j 1 3 + : yi (zi ; z i ) = 4 1 + zi 1 + z j j6=i Example 1 (Identical costs). Choose cost parameters (3; 0; 0); and step-sizes sk = 200=k; to get i 1 2 3 Table i = 1=4, endowments (ei ) = zi yi p 1.000 0.2187 0.0205 1.000 0.2187 0.0205 1.000 0.2187 0.0205 1 Results for Example 1. 0.5 y1 0.4 y2 y3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 5 10 15 20 Iterations 25 30 35 40 3 z1 z2 2 z3 1 0 0 5 10 15 20 Iterations 25 30 35 40 Figure 1. Evolution of holdings for Example 1. Example 2 (Asymmetric costs). Choose cost parameters ( i ) = (1=3; 1=4; 1=5), endowments ei = 1, and step-sizes sk = 200=k to get i 1 2 3 Table zi 1.1446 0.9990 0.8565 2 Results yi p 0.1916 0.0208 0.2220 0.0208 0.2393 0.0208 for Example 2. 13 Reaching Cournot-Walras Equilibrium 0.4 y1 0.3 y2 y3 0.2 0.1 0 0 5 10 15 20 Iterations 25 30 35 40 2 z1 1.5 z2 z3 1 0.5 0 0 5 10 15 20 Iterations 25 30 35 40 Figure 2 Evolution of holdings for Example 2. Examples 1 and 2 con…rm the emergence of equilibria with symmetric and asymmetric agents. 7. Links to Literature This paper ties oligopolies for …nal products to exchange of production factors. A particular feature is that experienced producers adapt their outputs swiftly, at the spur of the moment, but adjust their factor use slowly and stepwise. Nonetheless, granted monotone margins (4), overall equilibrium may eventually obtain. Such monotonicity holds in some workhorse models of industrial organization, notably in Cournot oligopolies. The paper relates to a large literature. Regarding production strategies, there is room for more generality than indicated above. Partial equilibrium (13) could come à la Cournot, Bertrand, Stackelberg, Arrow-Debreu (1954), Gabszewicz-Vial (1972), or Shapley-Shubik (1977). It imports in each case that the production component of equilibrium be stable. While adapting their factor use, agents move slowly, driven by di¤erences in personal valuations. Bilateral exchange is the only vehicle. It’s agent-based, decentralized, and non-coordinated. This optic has several consequences: The Shapley-Shubik (1977) market game, in which players put payments and quantities on diverse tables, is a one-shot, strategic-form episode. Hence it doesn’t …t our emphasis on repeated, small-size trades. Hahn (1984) and Westskog (1996) consider an oligopoly, surrounded by a pricetaking fringe which generates a price curve. Identifying that curve might require more knowledge than the oligopolists have [24]. Further, it’s intricate to discern or Reaching Cournot-Walras Equilibrium 14 predict who comes forward as oligopolist and who will not [35]. The Cournot-Walras setting - as modelled by Codognato and Gabszewicz (1991) presumes that some scarce goods be owned by just a few agents. Whence only the latter act as oligopolists. Such is not our setting. To good approximation, endowments are widely held. For that reason, factor owners are already ”in the game”. Entry or exit becomes less of an issue, hence not modelled here [29]. Admittedly, owners of scarce rights may game the situation - say, by destructing, withholding, or misrepresenting endowments [2], [34], [32]. Whatever be the moves which precede the game proper, including maybe reallocation of endowments [25], property rights are here construed as reliable and well de…ned. The factor market, modelled above, is essentially Walrasian, like in Montgomery (1972).8 However, during trade, no player is a price-taker. There are no prices to take; they are all personal - and not necessarily posted. Moreover, quantities are bounded. Consequently, trade may evolve as in double auctions or order markets [4]. Despite decentralization, equilibrium is apt to emerge all the same. Attainment of equilibrium in exchange economies has long been studied; see [7], [8], [9], [14], [15] and references therein. A novelty here is that exchange is superimposed on non-cooperative production. There are some similarities to [12], but two major di¤erences: …rst, the aggregate endowment is …xed; second, out-of-equilibrium behavior is explicitly modelled. Since the product market is imperfect, Pareto e¢ ciency is rare, and overall payo¤ is apt to evolve in non-monotone (non-potential) manner. These features are at variance with transferable-utility pure exchange models [7], [8], [9], [14], [15]. Also noteworthy is that individual constraints can be general and criteria non-smooth. 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