SHORT LIST Welcome to your Small & Mid Caps universe JANUARY 2016 2 Moving in / Moving off the short list 3 Actia Group: embedded future growth at a good price 4 Esker*: a 25% increase in turnover for the fourth quarter and 90% increase for the operating result 5 Fleury Michon*: on a good trend 6 Thermador Groupe*: Positive external growth factors 7 Trigano*: still a very favourable commercial drive * PEA-PME eligibility (under the French share savings plan to finance SMEs). 8 Publishing schedule 9 Performances 10 Operating guidelines 11 Disclaimer 12 Contacts Moving in / Moving off the short list + Actia Esker Thermador Trigano 5th January 2016 Actia Esker Fleury Michon Thermador Trigano ATI ALESK FLE THEP TRI 5.19 31.00 63.56 87.97 61.81 Chargeurs – Buy (1), last objective set €11.0 - There are no short-term catalysts for this security GTT– Increase stake (2), last objective set €54.0 No new information in January after confirmation of annual guidelines; this sector is under pressure High Co – Hold (3) vs. Buy (1), last objective set €8.9 The sharp increase of this security leads us to be more cautious in the short run Le Noble Age – Buy(1), last objective set €28.0 No catalyst identified in January Short list - January 2016 Page 2 THERMADOR GROUPE Positive external growth factors Activity is expected to improve during the fourth quarter We are expecting a 53.4 M€ turnover for the fourth quarter (up 16.3%, and 0.4% at constant prices) owing to: 1. A build-up of the group's international development (with a planned fourth quarter turnover of 4.5M€ for Thermador International, up 17.6%); 2. A favourable baseline effect (turnover for fourth quarter of 2014 was 45.9M€, down 4.8%): 3. A positive 7.3M€ contribution resulting from the consolidation of Mecafer and Nuair France companies after the 1st of July 2015; 4. Note: this is despite mild weather conditions which should have adverse effects on sales of heating equipment. The governmeent measures aiming to improve the construction market in France (particularly the recent zero percent rate housing loan) ought to have positive effects during the ongoing financial year (it should be underlined that this group is currently doing well in difficult market conditions). Profitability is expected to improve Along with an expected increase of turnover in 2015 of 7.9% (+ 1.7% at constant prices) up to 221.8 M€, the results should improve (EBIT at 32.6 M€ vs. 31.1 M€ the year before) with 1 / improved profitability for Thermador International, 2 / an accretive contribution coming from Mecafer 3/ despite currency effects concerning purchases and investments carried out. The upside potential has not yet been entirely used Although the price is at its peak and the valuation now includes some of the potential increase (P/E16 17.4x, EV/ EBIT16 10.1x), the increase in activity and yield (~ 4%) should act as catalysts for this security. Price objective: 97.5€ per share vs. present price of 87.97€, Increase stake (2). PEA-PME eligibility - Valuation multiples: P/E15 18.8x EV/EBIT15 10.7x. /TO Short list - January 2016 Page 6 Publishing schedule ACTIA GROUP - Turnover for fourth quarter published on 11/02/2016 ESKER - Turnover for 2015 published on 19/01/2016 FLEURY MICHON - Turnover for fourth quarter published on 28/01/2016 THERMADOR GROUP - Turnover for fourth quarter published on 15/01/2016 TRIGANO - Turnover for second quarter published on 22/03/2016 Short list - January 2016 Page 8 Performance since January 2009 Short list CAC Mid & Small Caps Selection for Dec. 2015 +3.5% +0.1% Since Jan. 2015 +98.6% +18.81% Since Jan. 2014 +172.5% +25.18% Since Jan. 2013 +241.1% +55.17% Since Jan. 2012 +466.6% +87.9% Since Jan. 2011 +414.6% +49.05% Since Jan. 2010 +787.3% +73.53% Since Jan. 2009 +1019.2% +137.14% 1000 950 900 850 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 2009 2010 2011 2012 Portzamparc selection Short list - January 2016 Page 9 2013 CAC Mid&Small Caps 2014 2015 Operating guidelines 1 2 The 5 securities were chosen according to a couple of complementary approach methods: excellent fundamentals and short-term market potential Cash position: cash available > 10 M€ 3 The performance indicated is calculated using the closing price of the day preceding the publication. It is provided for indicative purposes only and does not constitute a performance information (securities average purchase/sale price, stamp duty, coupon) 4 Weighting: 20% for each security 5 Moving in / Moving off the short list: every month 6 No longer belonging to the short list does not mean that any particular security has been downgraded. Its short-term market value is simply considered as now being less attractive than those of the 5 other securities Short list - January 2016 Page 10 Disclaimer All disclaimers concerning Portzamparc research (transparency commitments, conflict of interest management policy, recommendation system, breakdown per recommendation) are found on: http://www.midcaps.portzamparc.fr/ (institutional clients) or can be provided by your regular advisor (private clients). Without any specific criteria set by legislative or regulatory means, the Portzamparc Group establishes PEA-PME share eligibility, according to its own understanding of the basic meaning of the French Finance Bill. In doing so, Portzamparc Group's can't be held liable if it makes a wrong assessment. Personal interest of the analyst Conflict of interest between Portzamparc and Issuer Financial interest between Portzamparc and Issuer Liquidity agreement Investment Other conflict services of interest Actia Group NO NO NO YES YES NO Esker NO NO NO YES YES NO Fleury Michon NO NO NO NO NO NO Thermador Group NO NO NO NO YES NO Trigano NO NO NO YES NO NO Short list - January 2016 Page 11 Contacts Institutional sales François Bredoux, Head of institutional sales, +33 (0)2 40 44 95 21, [email protected] Henri Tasso, Institutional sales, +33 (0)2 40 44 95 41, [email protected] Henrique Cristino, Institutional sales, +33 (0)2 40 44 95 31, [email protected] Nitin Khednah, Institutional sales, +33 (0)2 40 44 95 11, [email protected] Franck Jaunet, Sales trading manager, +33 (0)2 40 44 95 26, [email protected] Reine Haslay, Risk and performance analyst, +33 (0)2 40 44 95 40, [email protected] Arnaud Guérin, Head of financial analytics, +33 (0)2 40 44 94 42, [email protected] Nicolas Royot, CFA, Financial analyst, +33 (0)1 40 17 50 43, [email protected] Romain Freismuth, CFA, Financial analyst, +33 (0)2 40 44 94 54, [email protected] Maxence Dhoury, Financial analyst, +33 (0)2 40 44 94 12, [email protected] Thomas Oillic, Financial analyst, +33 (0)2 40 44 94 52, [email protected] Short list - January 2016
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