Projecting Yields and Discounted
Value of Enhanced Genetic Stands
from Early Rotation Measurements
Harold E. Burkhart
Department of Forestry
Virginia
Vi i i Tech
T h
Valuing and Establishing Tomorrow’s
Tomorrow s Advanced Pine Plantations Today
Charlotte, North Carolina – July 22, 2009
Outline
• Need for growth and yield models
• Types
T
off models
d l available
il bl
• Incorporating genetic information into
growth and yield models
• Using growth and yield models for
performing financial analyses
Informed decision making requires estimates
of wood volume by product classes over time
For traditional products, value per tree
closely related to size
Value
None
Low
Medium
High
Plantation Management
•
•
•
•
Genetic improvement
Vegetation control
F tili
Fertilizer
applications
li ti
Thinning treatments
Must determine
What management treatments to apply
att what
h t levels
l l and
d att what
h t ti
time
Modeling
g Approach
pp
is Required
q
Models of forest stand development are
essential for integrating and synthesizing
research results from diverse sources
and
d for
f informed
i f
dd
decision
i i making
ki
Growth and Yield Models for
Even-Aged Stands
1. Whole-stand models
a) Overall values
b) Size-class information
2 Individual-tree
2.
Individual tree models
a) Distance independent
b) Distance dependent
Stand development
p
considered a function of age,
g ,
site quality, density, and management treatments.
Site quality assessed as height of
dominant canopy at index age
(site index)
Forest Stand Development Simulator (PTAEDA)
with Multiple Silvicultural Options
Size, distance
and frequency of
neighboring
i hb i
trees
Site index
age
DBH
DBH
Growth
Thinning
Crown
Ratio
Competition
Height
Growth
Fertilization
Hardwood
Competition level
Mortality
Total
Height
Tree-Growth Components
p
Stand-Level Components
Tabular Information on Forest Development
Stand Age = 10 years
DBH
Class
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Total
Number Average
Trees
Height
25.0
92.5
170.0
217.5
150.0
97.5
2.5
755.0
12.8
18.1
22.0
24.5
25.8
26.8
27.6
Basal
Area
0.2
2.1
8.6
19.2
20.8
18.4
0.6
69.7
Total
Volume
o.b.
5.9
34.8
118.8
256.7
273.4
244.0
8.1
941.7
Volume
o.b.
To 4.in
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
176.5
190.1
6.8
373.5
Volume
i.b.
To 0in
0.0
6.0
56.7
160.5
191.7
180.3
6.1
601.4
Tabular Information on Forest Development
Stand Age = 10 years
DBH
Class
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Total
Number Average
Trees
Height
25.0
92.5
170.0
217.5
150.0
97.5
2.5
755.0
12.8
18.1
22.0
24.5
25.8
26.8
27.6
Basal
Area
0.2
2.1
8.6
19.2
20.8
18.4
0.6
69.7
Total
Volume
o.b.
5.9
34.8
118.8
256.7
273.4
244.0
8.1
941.7
Volume
o.b.
To 4.in
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
176.5
190.1
6.8
373.5
Volume
i.b.
To 0in
0.0
6.0
56.7
160.5
191.7
180.3
6.1
601.4
Stand Age = 30 years
DBH
Class
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Total
Number Average
Trees
Height
7.5
20
30
77 5
77.5
92.5
95
100
65
40
5
2.5
535
31.1
37.1
42.5
46 8
46.8
50.5
52.2
53.9
55.2
58.3
63.5
65.4
Basal
Area
0.2
1
2.7
10 8
10.8
18.4
25.1
35.3
28.2
20.8
3.1
1.8
147.5
Total
Volume
o.b.
4.4
21.2
58.1
246 9
246.9
442.6
618.9
891.1
728
562.6
92.1
54.9
3720.9
Volume
o.b.
To 4.in
0
0
0
160 7
160.7
352.4
537.1
815.3
682.8
536
88.8
53.3
3226.5
Volume
i.b.
To 0in
1.8
12.8
41.2
187 8
187.8
348.4
495.8
723.2
595
462.5
76.1
45.5
2990.1
Visualization Forest Development
In addition to response to silvicultural
treatments, need estimates of stand
development for different genotypes
Genetic selection is expected to increase
mean tree size and decrease variability
Genotypes
Open Pollinated
Mass Control
Pollinated
Clonal
Study of Genetically Improved Loblolly Pine
Buford and Burkhart.
Burkhart 1987.
1987 Forest Science 33:707-724
Shape of height/age (site index) relationship related to site;
level related to genetic stock
Seed source study
Open-pollinated families
Genetic effects not significant for other tree or stand variables.
Bottomline:
To predict growth and yield
of p
plantations established
with varying seed sources or
open-pollinated families, it is
necessary (and sufficient) to
correctly specify site index.
How will p
planting
g ggenetically-identical
y
individuals affect
•
•
•
Site index?
Unit area values?
Wood quality?
Height/Age
for loblolly pine in clonal
screening trial
H i ht Growth
Height
G
th Curves
C
for
f allll the
th Clones
Cl
80.0
70.0
Heigh t (ft)
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
0
5
10
Age (yrs)
15
AA110
AA060
AA050
AA070
AA099
AA065
AA082
AA104
AA112
AA119
AA076
AA005
AA021
AA006
AA093
AA003
AA022
AA116
AA062
AA055
Seed source study
Height/Age
for Loblolly Pine
Height Growth Curves for all the Clones
80.0
70.0
Heigh
ht (ft)
60.0
50.0
40 0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
0
5
10
Age (yrs)
Clonal
Open-pollinated families
15
AA110
AA060
AA050
AA070
AA099
AA065
AA082
AA104
AA112
AA119
AA076
AA005
AA021
AA006
AA093
AA003
AA022
AA116
AA062
AA055
Model fit usingg all data
Predicting Height Development of New Clones Using
Measured heights and ages 2 and 5
Data from block plantings of clones
Impacts of site resource management on
varietal performance
F
re
q
u
e
n
c
y
60
Clone 93
50
Control
40
30
20
10
F
re
q
u
e
n
c
y
0
60
50
Raked
40
30
20
10
F
re
q
u
e
n
c
y
0
60
50
1X Litter
40
30
20
10
F
re
q
u
e
n
c
y
0
60
50
1X Mulch
40
30
20
10
F
re
q
u
e
n
c
y
0
60
50
2X Mulch
40
30
20
10
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Height Class (ft)
Courtesy USFS
10
11
12
13
14
Layout of OP, MCP, and Clonal Block
plantings at Haven & Jericho Locations
OP
CLONE
WV3
AA32
MCP
CLONE
WV3 x WV5
AA93
100 Trees planted in each plot; Survival was 85 to 99 trees;
Spacing: 9x9 at Haven and 12x9 at Jericho; Bedding at Jericho
Center for Advanced Forestry Systems
Comparison Between Using
Open-Pollinated Genetically-Improved
St k and
Stock
dV
Varietal
i t lS
Seedlings
dli
Exhibited
Site Index
Cost/1,000
Seedlings
Genetically
Improved
75 (ft.)
$60
Varietal
95 (ft.)
$420
1200
10000
8000
6000
600
4000
300
2000
0
0
0
10
20
30
40
Years
Dollars at 5%
Yield (cu. ft./ac)
50
Yield (cu. fft./ac)
Dollars (att 5%)
900
Establishment Cost
Pl t 500 trees/acre
Plant
t
/
Site Preparation
Seedlings
Total
Genetically
Improved
Varietal
$150/ac.
$150/ac.
$30/ac.
$210/ac.
$180/ac.
$
$360/ac.
$
$568
$778
Rotation age 22 years
Pulpwood $8/ton
Chip n saw $22/ton
Chip-n-saw
Sawtimber $40/ton
NPV
(Discount rate 5%)
Net Present Value
Genetically
Improved
Varietal
No thinning
Clearcut at age 22
$568
$778
One thinning at age 15
Clearcut at age 25
$742
$1 014
$1,014
Silvicultural Regime
Money
does not
grow on
trees,
but . . .
you can
make
money
growing
trees.
However…
There are a host of factors
involved and thorough
analyses are required.
Thank you!
Questions?