Fish farming, water and climate
in northern Thailand:
insurance and water management
as potential risk mitigation options
Manoj Potapohn, Ph.D
Lecturer at Faculty of Economics Chiang Mai University
and activity leader of economics & institution component in
aquadapt research project
Context of the study
Red tilapia
(Pla Tabtim
Cage
Nile tilapia
(Pla Nin)
x
x
Pond
Cage in a pond
w/ aeration
system
Red tilapia
Current climate, 2 main types of fish with 3 production techniques
Nile tilapia
•
x
• Characteristics of the systems
• Different characteristics
red tilapia
Nile tilapia
• fishUndesirable exit isCage:
driven
by two typesPond:
of ish:
market &
67
3
Intensity (fish/cu.m)
climate
80-100 (in 3x3x1.5m pond)
Dr Niwoot of Mae Jo University
Input sources (feed and
animal health care)
Field study
Purchased from contract
farming partners
More flexible with self
production possibility (feed
via plankton)
hypothesis of the study
• Two types of risk: market & climate
– Possibly, the market risk is borne or shared within chosen form
of production organization: contract farming, independent &
farmers cooperatives
• Stress under current climate
– variations in water quantity and quality
• Two possible interventions:
– insurance ~ to replace current compensation under
disasters risk management
– water management ~ make water allocation responsive to
fish farming water demand/ water quality monitoring
Thailand’s rivers: Chao Phaya and Nan
Study area for
cage fish
farming
Sirikit
dam
Uttaradit
Nam-Rid project
Klongtron
reservoir
Kwae Noi dam
Naraesuan dam
Phayaman wier
Phitsanuloke
Phichit
Nakorn sawan
Water infrastructure in the study area (cage fish farming)
Mae ngad dam
Ping
wang
yom
Nan
Sirikit dam
Naresuan dam
Kiew lom dam
อุตรดิตถ์
พิษณุโลก
พิจิตร
Bhumibhol dam
สะแกกรัง
นครสวรรค์
Chao phraya dam
แม่น ้ำเจ้ ำพระยำ
Kwaenoi dam
Pasak cholasit dam
Flood risk: Cross section map of rivers in the north
Width of the channel(meters)
Amount of water 1995
200
180
3,800
2,243 2,276
1,140
1,5111,295
160
140
80
40
0
40
80
120
100
80
60
40
800
20
0
-20
0
100
200
2,200 1,250 520
300
400
300 400
500
600
-40
700
-60
-80
-100
-120
-140
-160
-180
-200
height (meter above sea level)
Capacity of the river channel (cum/sec)
Phayao
300.00
280.00
260.00
240.00
220.00
200.00
180.00
160.00
140.00
120.00
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
Shore level
River level
phrae
sukhothai
phitsanuloke
phichit
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
distance (kilometers)
450
500
550
600
650
700
Seasonal pattern of the water demand by cageการเลี
fish farmers
้ ยงปลาในกระชัง
1 during the dry season (Dec-April.)
water release for crop farming at central
region, fish farmers are unaffected
2.End of rainy season (aug-nov.)
retain water in the reservoir to
prevent flood in central region
causing reduction in the flow and
Hence a problem with fish farming
Water level in the nan river 2009
water quality
monitoring &
testing by a
farmer in
Phitsanuloke
Mae suai
dam
Meuang
District
6L 14 R
3L 14 R
4L 14 R
5L 14 R
น ้ำแม่ กรณ์
ห้ วยแม่ สำด
1L
14R
เหมื องหลว ง
2L
นำ้ แม่ ลำว
Study area for pond fish
farming: Phan district,
Chiang Rai & Phayao
province
14R
14R
ห้ วยแม่ต๊ ำ ก
ห้ วยแม่ ขำว
10R
ห้ วยแม่ ม อญ
Chiang rai
ห้ วยแม่ กรณ์
Mae Lao
นำ้ แม่ ลำว
district
8R
7R
6R
ห้ วยแม่ ผง
ห้ วยแม่ ส้ำ นใหญ่
9R
5R
4R
คลองส่ ง นำ้ สำยใหญ่ ฝ่ ั งซ้ ำ ย
นำ้ แม่ ลำว
1R – 14R
12R
11R
3R
ห้ วยแม่ ส้ำ นน้ อย
1R
2R
1L
2L
ฝำยแม่ ลำว
Phan
1R-2L
ห้ วยร่องธ ำร
3L
ห้ วยไร่
คลองส่ ง นำ้ สำยใหญ่ ฝ่ ั งขวำ
ห้ วยแม่ ห นำด
แม่น ้ำ คำว
1R 8L
9L
น ้ำแม่ ซ่ำน
1L 8L
ห้ วยร่องบอน
8L
ห้ วยน ้ำ ดั ง
ห้ วยร่องขุ่ น
2R
ห้ วยโทกธำร 10L
ห้ วยเตำ ปูน 11L
ห้ วยบ้ ำนสัน
12L
ห้ วยฝั่ งตื ้น
3R 4L
2R 4L
7L
8L
ห้ วยแม่ ซำ่ น
1R 4L
ห้ วยร่องลึ ก
ห้ วยแห้ ง
น ้ำแม่ ฮ่ำง
น ้ำแม่ คำว
4L
5L
6L
ห้ วยแม่ปอ น
ห้ วยเตย
ห้ ว ยตำท บ
13L
14L
ห้ วยร่องคต
ห้ วยแม่ เย็น
15L
ห้ วยป่ ำแฝก
16L
Mae Jai
ห้ วยสัdistrict
น ต้ นม่ วง
17L
18L
19L
ห้ วยเกี๋ ยง
ห้ วยเหมื องหลวง
น ้ำแม่ ใจ
20L
21L
22L
Phayao
Tilapia in a
Phayao farm
water
infrastructure
near the farm
Tilapia farming in
2nd Phayao farm
mountain
water piped
into the 2nd
farm
Cage in the pond
with aeration
system
Theoretical framework
• David Feeny’s notion of supply of institutional arrangement, to the
reduce the damage (demand) brought about by climate change
– David Feeny, The Demand for and Supply of Institutional Arrangements, in RETHINKING
INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS AND DEVELOPMENT: Issues, Alternative and Choice 159 (Vincent
Ostrom et al. eds., 1988).
• Insight from Agrawala and Fankhauser (2008) in (a) decentralized
nature of adaptation decisions in comparison to mitigation of GHG
– “[A]daptation is a decentralised process, there is the question whether, and if so how,
economic agents need to be incentivised to adapt. This is a question for public policy.”
Agrawala, Shardul and Samuel Fankhauser (ed) (2008) Economic Aspects of Adaptation to Climate Change,
Costs, benefits and Policy Instruments, OECD
• Insurance could condition payment on prescribed private avoidance
activities
– Public support needs not be in the form of subsidies but from public information (e.g.
monitoring on water quality)
Methods
• Iterative process of investigations
– validation with stakeholders: farmers/ irrigation
authority/ water resource dept/ local government
• After Christopher Udry (AER paper on field work) and
EcoHealth approach
• Empirical based model building & fieldworks
– Bayesian Belief Network model on farmers
decision to cope with climate & production risk &
then insurance demand
– Water accounting, and a hydroeconomic type of
river basin model
Preliminary finding
• Estimated size of the ‘fish farming water economy’
(after Van de Hield 1903, Water economy of siam)
Cage farming in
Uttaradit &
Phitsanuloke
Pond farming in Phan
district
Output
8440 cages from Uttaradit
(4900) Ta Takien (40)
Bang Ka Toom(3500)
15mt/d
Gross revenue
729.2 million baht
328.5 million baht
(8,440x900x0.8x0.6x80x2.5)
Estimated value
added
218.7 million baht (30% of 131.4 million baht (40% of
gross revenue)
gross revenue)
Water demand
100cum/sec or
~8.68mcm/d
?
Preliminary Findings
• Cycle in price & production of Nile Tilapia
– Currently, it is a good time, price increases to Baht 60/kg from
Baht40/kg a year ago.
• Supply is down because fish ponds are taken out of production and switching
away to paddy crop farming due to government purchase
• Media attention to loss by farmers
– Frequent loss is a recent phenomena emerged in only about 3 years’
time, according to an irrigation official
• Fish water demand is left out in the process water allocation
decision; agricultural interest is based solely on crop irrigation
– Local authority & reservoir managers do respond to farmers demand
for water (de facto aquaculture water right). But decision making is
centralized after the 2011 flood; the new regime is untested.
• Private sector plays important role in industry development
Thank you for your attention
• Acknowledgement:
• Royal Irrigation Department, Region 3
• Sirikit dam
• Mae Suai & Mae Lao Irrigation Office
•
•
•
•
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IDRC Canada
SEI Bangkok Office
National University of Singapore
Mae Jo University
Chiang Mai University
(Faculty of Economics & Unit of Social and Environmental Research, USER)