UNECE Workshop on Short-Term Statistics (STS)
and Seasonal Adjustment
14 – 17 March 2011, Astana, Kazakhstan
General Recommendations on
STS
Carsten Boldsen Hansen
Economic Statistics Section, UNECE
Overview
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General guidelines and quality
Sources for methodology guidelines
Response burden
STS vs. SBS
Time series
Release Practices
Metadata
User consultation
March 2011
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 2
“The use by statistical agencies in each
country of international concepts,
classifications and methods promotes
the consistency and efficiency of
statistical systems at all official levels.”
The ninth principle of The Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics
in the Region of the Economic Commission for Europe, UNECE
March 2011
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 3
General Guidelines
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The Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics (UN)
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/dnss/gp/fundprinciples.aspx
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Quality of Statistics
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Data Quality Assessment Framework (IMF)
http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/dsbb/2003/eng/dqaf.htm
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ESS quality framework (EC)
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/quality/introduction
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OECD quality framework (OECD)
http://www.oecd.org/document/43/0,3343,en_2649_33715_21571947_1_1_1_1,00.html
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Handbook of Statistical Organization,
The Operation and Organization of a Statistical Agency, 2003
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/dnss/hb/default.aspx
March 2011
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 4
The Fundamental Principles
1. indispensable for a democratic society
2. statistical agencies decide methods and
procedures
3. present data according to scientific
standards
4. comment on erroneous interpretation
5. statistical agencies choose the data
sources with regard to quality, timeliness,
costs and burden
March 2011
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 5
The Fundamental Principles
6. strictly confidentiality of individual data and use
exclusively for statistical purposes
7. statistical laws, regulations and measures to be
made public
8. coordination among statistical agencies within
countries
9. use of international concepts, classifications and
methods
10. bilateral and multilateral cooperation
March 2011
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 6
Respondent Burden
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Minimizing respondent burden should be an
important objective vs. cut-off sampling
Coordination of data collections would help
reducing response burden and to divide it more
evenly among respondents
Existing sources of information should be used
to the largest extent possible
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Administrative registers
Commercial datasets
Data collected by other organizations
March 2011
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 7
Coherence
= Degree to which data is logically connected
and mutually consistent
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Coherence within a data set
• Coherence across data sets
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common concepts, definitions, valuation principles,
classifications and co-operation
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Coherence over time
• Coherence across countries
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Extent to which the recommendations have been
adopted
Link to national accounts important
March 2011
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 8
STS vs Structural Statistics (SBS)
STS = measures economic developments
SBS = a snapshot describing structure & detail
 STS and SBS have different data sources,
definitions, statistical methods, timing and
coverage (fiscal/calendar)
 Treatment of changes in the population
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SBS: the population in the reference year as it is
STS: makes different time periods comparable
(by correcting for mergers and splits etc)
Further improvement of coherence needed!
March 2011
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 9
List of Methodology Guidelines
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Methodology of Short-Term Business Statistics (EC), 2006
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/ramon/statmanuals/files/KS-BG-06-001-EN.pdf
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International Recommendations for the Index of Industrial Production (UN), 2010
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/statcom/doc10/BG-IndustrialStats.pdf
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Use of Administrative Sources for Business Statistics Purposes (EC), 1999
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/ramon/statmanuals/files/CA-24-99-897-__-N-EN.pdf
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International Recommendations for Distributive Trade Statistics (UN), 2009
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/ramon/statmanuals/files/Inter_Rec_for_Distribut_Trade_Stat.pdf
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Methodological guide for Producer Price Indices for Services, (EC) 2005
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/ramon/statmanuals/files/KS-BG-06-003-EN.pdf
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Evolution of Service Statistics, proceedings of a seminar, (EC) 2002
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/ramon/statmanuals/files/KS-BG-02-001-__-N-EN.pdf
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Consumer Price Index Manual, Theory and Practice, 2004 (ILO)
http://www.ilo.org/public/english/bureau/stat/guides/cpi/index.htm
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Practical Guide to Producing Consumer Price Indices, 2009 (UNECE/ILO)
http://www.unece.org/stats/publications/Practical_Guide_to_Producing_CPI.pdf
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Producer Price Index Manual, Theory and Practice, 2004 (IMF)
http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/tegppi/index.htm
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Export and Import Price Manual, 2008 (IMF)
http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/tegeipi/index.htm
March 2011
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 10
Time Series Recommendations
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Fixed base indices and/or absolute values for
discrete periods to be provided
New series should be linked to the old series to
produce continuous series
Cumulative statistics should be published only as
additional information
If seasonality influences the indicator, seasonally
adjusted and trend series to be published
Reference period should be a year and be
updated when the weights are updated
March 2011
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 11
Importance of Long Time Series (1)
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Long and consistent time series important for
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International comparison
Analysis
Appraisal of business cycles
Current practices of countries vary significantly
Currently no international standards on:
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March 2011
Length of time series
Methods for backcasting
Implementing changes of classifications
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 12
Importance of Long Time Series (2)
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STS regulation (EC) requires time series from
2000, Eurostat recommends much longer series
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Methodology of Short-Term Business Statistics:
“To carry out statistical analysis such as seasonal
adjustment it is generally considered necessary to have
observations for a minimum of 5 years…
…for example, in the search for turning points it is important
to be able to have data available for several complete
cycles.”
March 2011
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 13
Dissemination
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Data should be released as soon as possible
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Trade off between timeliness and quality
Data to be released according to a set timetable
Confidentiality to be secured
Data made available to all users at the same time
Data to be revised as new information is available
Data to be accompanied by explanations
Contact details of relevant statisticians to be given
Source: Index of Industrial Production (UN)
March 2011
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 14
Reference Period
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Some guidelines by IMF and Eurostat:
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Prices, output and sales
Monthly
(GDP), labour variables at least
Quarterly (un/employment monthly)
March 2011
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 15
Timeliness Guidelines
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Some guidelines by IMF and Eurostat
Indicator
output
prices
new orders
sales / turnover
persons employed
hours worked
wages and salaries
March 2011
Days
Eurostat IMF
40
30-45
50
60
60
90
90
UNECE Statistical Division
45
30
60
90
Slide 16
Metadata and Dissemination Guides
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UN
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The Common Metadata Framework
Making Data Meaningful 1 and 2
Guidelines for Statistical Metadata on the Internet
Terminology on Statistical Metadata
OECD
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Data and Metadata Reporting and Presentation
Glossary of Statistical Terms
• Publishing Standards for Datasets and Data Tables
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IMF
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Guide to the Data Dissemination Standards
March 2011
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 17
Metadata Management
“data about data”
 Identify users and provide only valuable metadata
 Ensure metadata is easily available
 Reuse metadata for integration and efficiency
 Preserve history (old versions) of metadata
 Document variations from standards
 Make metadata work an integral part of production
 Create a coherent system for metadata
 Ensure that the metadata for users reflects the real
production process
March 2011
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 18
Contents of Metadata
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Purpose and main uses of the statistics
Definitions of the underlying economic concepts
Reference to the respective legislation
Data coverage, periodicity and timeliness
Self assessment of data quality
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revision history and accuracy of concepts
availability, comparability and coherence
limitations in the use of statistics
Descriptions of the methodologies used
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Index formula, weighting and frequency of revising
Frequency of re-basing and linking methods
Treatment of changes in commodities or quality
Source: Index of industrial production (UN) & some NSO’s recommendations
March 2011
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 19
User Consultation
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Create mechanisms to obtain users’ views on
regular basis in order to
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identify priority areas for improvement
ensure responding to user needs
provide users with advice on the strengths and
weaknesses of your statistics
Important with key indicators (CPI, IPI, GDP...)
Engaging users should be an integral part of the
work in the NSO
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Mutual understanding and exchange of information
(=transparency) builds trust
Decisions will be made independently by the NSO
Source: Practical Guide to Producing CPI (UN)
March 2011
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 20