Kyle J. Heppenstall
31 - October - 2014
Ebola: The Scariest Stories Are Always Non-Fiction
It was the year 2014...
The World Health Organization (WHO) issues this frightening statement, "In a post-antibiotic era in which common
infections and minor injuries can kill - far from being an apocalyptic fantasy, is instead a very real possibility for the 21st
Century."
Drug development slows. The approval of antibiotics and antivirals have been been cut by two-thirds during the period from
1980 to 2009. Infectious disease experts maintain overuse has led to super-bugs and want to restrict their use. Drug
manufacturers don't profit when a newly developed vaccine, antiviral or antibiotic sits on the shelf in a "break only in the
case of emergency" situation.
A two headed dragon surfaces, antibiotic failure rates have simultaneously been rising. Professor Craig Currie of the U.K.,
explains how failure rates have risen by 12% in his September 2014 research paper. And so a vicious cycle is born.
Professor Currie's Paper:
www.bmj.com/content/349/bmj.g5493
Enter the Great Ebola Outbreak of 2014.
Some say the virus originated in primates, others said bats infected with the virus bit unsuspecting humans.
However, we do know that a machine first identified the threat, in fact over a week before any governmental agency
recognized the early warning signals, HealthMap used Twitter, Facebook, Google Alerts and other forms of social media to
However, we do know that a machine first identified the threat, in fact over a week before any governmental agency
recognized the early warning signals, HealthMap used Twitter, Facebook, Google Alerts and other forms of social media to
identify a "mystery hemorrhagic fever" in Africa.
HealthMap's Case by Case Trend Spotting:
www.techrepublic.com/article/how-an-algorithm-detected-the-ebola-outbreak-a-week-early-and-what-it-could-do-next/
In the U.S. the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) was already reeling from a series of mis-steps.
In June 2014, 60-to-80 people were exposed to deadly anthrax spores at the CDC's
headquarters in Atlanta.
In July 2014, two vials from the year 1954 were discovered after improperly being stored,
with the live smallpox virus still intact.
Again in July, the CDC accidentally contaminated a benign flu sample with the much more
dangerous H5N1 bird flu virus, then shipped it unknowingly to an Agriculture Department
lab.
Slow to react, the CDC decided against implementing travel bans and mandatory quarantine periods for high risk
individuals. And then the inevitable occurred, on September 30, 2014 the first confirmed case of Ebola arrived on U.S.
shores from an infected African national.
The CDC was caught off guard, but projections and warnings from as early as 2006 showed the serious consequences.
In 2006, MIT partnered with the New England Complex Systems Institute to model how a pathogen could spread with
devastating speed in a world where plane travel can extend deadly diseases which have historically been killed off when
isolated populations die.
See the video model:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNaQUlIa5_E
The CDC struggled to maintain the right balance of accurate preventative information and calm.
When the CDC and Doctors Without Borders conducted a mock Ebola treatment center, testing the recommended use of
personal protective equipment (PPE), nearly every trainee had breaches of protocol, said the CDC's Michael Jhung.
And the nightmare continued...
The deaths mounted. The computers modeled and predicted, then re-modeled and re-predicted.
The variables were impossible to pin down. What kind of response would other nations send to Africa? How would modern
travel speed the spread? Were the infected afraid to report their symptoms? Were health specialist properly trained to pick
up on early symptoms and distinguish these from malaria, or the common flu?
On October 14, 2014 the CDC and WHO predicted a worst case scenario of 1.4 million Ebola related deaths by January
2015.
See the CDC's Worst Case Prediction here:
www.nytimes.com/2014/10/15/world/africa/ebola-epidemic-who-west-africa.html
What chance did the average person have if Dr. Thomas Frieden (Director of the CDC) couldn't even protect health care
providers let alone the average citizen?
And then just when the darkness seems to hang like a heavy fog across the countries of our world, there is a glimmer of
light and hope.
What if.....
Think tank task forces were launched across the world with the ultimate goal of delinking volume from value in the
antibiotic and antiviral markets. The U.S.'s Chatham House and President's Council of Advisors on Science and
Technology, Europe's DRIVE-AB started working towards the cause.
DRIVE-AB's antibiotic objectives:
drive-ab.eu/workstreams-view/wp1c-antibiotic-valuation/ 
What if.....
Commonsensical travel bans were implemented.
Personal Protection Equipment (PPE) were deployed and used correctly.
High risk individuals were quarantined and closely monitored by governmental authorities.
What if.....
New diagnostic testing kits were deployed in the field. The new kits didn't require diagnostic labs to run the samples, losing
valuable hours. Infections were reported in minutes not days, the infected could be rapidly treated and quarantined.
News on new testing kits:
time.com/3544024/ebola-tests-fast-tracked-by-fda/
www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/10/03/this-test-could-stop-ebola-s-spread.html
And finally, What if.....
Researchers developed vaccines and the FDA sped up approvals.
Then the end to our spooky nightmare scenario - the virus gradually slowed as some patients died, but others who lived
became more immune. The bugs died, and the humans survived to live another Halloween.
P.S. The scariest non-fiction book I've ever read, "The Hot Zone" by Richard Preston, published in 1995. Preston's book
documents viral hemorrhagic fevers. The author Steven King said of the book, "one of the most horrifying things I've read
in my whole life". Apparently Ridley Scott has plans for a movie.
Next Post: Health Sector Logs Big Gains in 2014 -- Four Predictions for 2015 »
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