Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Anderson, Sweeney, Williams, Camm, Cochran © 2018 Cengage Learning © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 1 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Chapter 8 Interval Estimation Population Mean: s Known Population Mean: s Unknown Determining the Sample Size Population Proportion Big data and Interval estimation © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 2 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Margin of Error and the Interval Estimate A point estimator cannot be expected to provide the exact value of the population parameter. An interval estimate can be computed by adding and subtracting a margin of error to the point estimate. Point Estimate +/- Margin of Error The purpose of an interval estimate is to provide information about how close the point estimate is to the value of the parameter. © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 3 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Margin of Error and the Interval Estimate The general form of an interval estimate of a population mean is 𝑥 + Margin of Error © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 4 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Interval Estimate of a Population Mean: s Known In order to develop an interval estimate of a population mean, the margin of error must be computed using either: • the population standard deviation s , or • the sample standard deviation s s is rarely known exactly, but often a good estimate can be obtained based on historical data or other information. We refer to such cases as the s known case. © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 5 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Interval Estimate of a Population Mean: s Known There is a 1 - probability that the value of a sample mean will provide a margin of error of 𝑧𝛼/2 𝜎𝑥 or less. /2 /2 © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 6 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Interval Estimate of a Population Mean: s Known © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 7 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Interval Estimate of a Population Mean: s Known Interval Estimate of m 𝑥 ± 𝑧𝛼/2 where: 𝜎 𝑛 𝑥 is the sample mean 1 - is the confidence coefficient z/2 is the z value providing an area of /2 in the upper tail of the standard normal probability distribution s is the population standard deviation n is the sample size © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 8 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Interval Estimate of a Population Mean: s Known Values of z/2 for the Most Commonly Used Confidence Levels Confidence level /2 Look-up Area z/2 90% .1 .05 .9500 1.645 95% .05 .025 .9750 1.960 99% .01 .005 .9950 2.576 © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 9 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Meaning of Confidence Because 90% of all the intervals constructed using 𝑥 + 1.645𝜎𝑥 will contain the population mean, we say we are 90% confident that the interval 𝑥 + 1.645𝜎𝑥 includes the population mean m. We say that this interval has been established at the 90% confidence level. The value .90 is referred to as the confidence coefficient. © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 10 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Interval Estimate of a Population Mean: s Known Example: Lloyds Department store Each week Lloyds department store selects a simple random sample of 100 customers in order to learn about the amount spent per shopping trip. The historical data indicates that the population follows a normal distribution. During most recent week, Lloyd’s surveyed 100 customers (n = 100) and obtained a sample mean of 𝑥 = $82. Based on historical data, Lloyd’s now assumes a known value of 𝜎 = $20. The confidence coefficient to be used in the interval estimate is .95. © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 11 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Interval Estimate of a Population Mean: s Known Example: Lloyds Department store 95% of the sample means that can be observed are within + 1.96 𝜎𝑥 of the population mean m. The margin of error is: 𝑧𝛼/2 𝜎 = 1.96 𝑛 20 100 = 3.92 © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 12 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Interval Estimate of a Population Mean: s Known Example: Lloyds Department store Interval estimate of m is: $82 + $ 3.92 or $78.08 to $85.29 We are 95% confident that the interval contains the population mean. © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 13 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Using Excel to construct a confidence interval - s Known Excel Formula Worksheet Note: Rows 18-99 are not shown. © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 14 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Using Excel to construct a confidence interval - s Known Excel Value Worksheet Note: Rows 18-99 are not shown. © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 15 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Interval Estimate of a Population Mean: s Known Example: Lloyds Department store Confidence level Margin of Error Interval estimate 90% 3.92 78.08 – 85.92 95% 3.29 78.71 – 85.29 99% 5.15 76.85 – 87.15 In order to have a higher degree of confidence, the margin of error and thus the width of the confidence interval must be larger. © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 16 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Interval Estimate of a Population Mean: s Known Adequate Sample Size In most applications, a sample size of n ≥ 30 is adequate. If the population distribution is highly skewed or contains outliers, a sample size of 50 or more is recommended. If the population is not normally distributed but is roughly symmetric, a sample size as small as 15 will suffice. If the population is believed to be at least approximately normal, a sample size of less than 15 can be used. © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 17 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Interval Estimate of a Population Mean: s Unknown If an estimate of the population standard deviation s cannot be developed prior to sampling, we use the sample standard deviation s to estimate s . This is the s unknown case. In this case, the interval estimate for m is based on the t distribution. (We’ll assume for now that the population is normally distributed.) © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 18 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) t Distribution William Gosset, writing under the name “Student”, is the founder of the t distribution. Gosset was an Oxford graduate in mathematics and worked for the Guinness Brewery in Dublin. He developed the t distribution while working on small-scale materials and temperature experiments. © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 19 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) t Distribution The t distribution is a family of similar probability distributions. A specific t distribution depends on a parameter known as the degrees of freedom. Degrees of freedom refer to the number of independent pieces of information that go into the computation of s. © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 20 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) t Distribution A t distribution with more degrees of freedom has less dispersion. As the degrees of freedom increase, the difference between the t distribution and the standard normal probability distribution becomes smaller and smaller. © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 21 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) t Distribution Comparison of the standard normal distribution with t distributions having 10 and 20 degrees of freedom. © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 22 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) t Distribution For more than 100 degrees of freedom, the standard normal z value provides a good approximation to the t value. The standard normal z values can be found in the infinite degrees row (labeled ∞ ) of the t distribution table. © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 23 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) t Distribution Selected values from the t distribution table © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 24 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Interval Estimate of a Population Mean: s Unknown 𝑥 ± 𝑡𝛼/2 where: 𝑠 𝑛 𝑥 = the sample mean 1 - = the confidence coefficient t/2 = the t value providing an area of /2 in the upper tail of a t distribution with n - 1 degrees of freedom s = the sample standard deviation n = the sample size © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 25 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Interval Estimate of a Population Mean: s Unknown Example: Credit card debt for the population of US households The credit card balances of a sample of 70 households provided a mean credit card debt of $9312 with a sample standard deviation of $4007. Let us provide a 95% confidence interval estimate of the mean credit card debt for the population of US households. We will assume this population to be normally distributed. © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 26 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Interval Estimate of a Population Mean: s Unknown At 95% confidence, = .05, and /2 = .025. t.025 is based on n - 1 = 70 - 1 = 69 degrees of freedom. © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 27 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Interval Estimate of a Population Mean: s Unknown Example: Credit card debt for the population of US households 𝑥 ± 𝑡.025 9312 4007 + 1.995 70 𝑠 𝑛 = 9312 + 955 We are 95% confident that the mean credit card debt for the population of US households is between $8357 and $10267. © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 28 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Using Excel’s Descriptive Statistics Tool Steps Step 1: Click the Data tab on the Ribbon Step 2: In the Analysis group click Data Analysis Step 3: Choose Descriptive Statistics from the list of Analysis tools © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 29 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Using Excel’s Descriptive Statistics Tool Step 4: When the Descriptive statistics dialog box appears • Enter Input Range • Select Grouped by columns • Select Labels in the first row • Select Output range: • Enter C1 in the output range box • Select summary statistics • Select confidence level for mean • Enter 95 in the confidence level for mean box • Click OK © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 30 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Using Excel’s Descriptive Statistics Tool Excel Worksheets 95% confidence interval for credit card balances. © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 31 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Interval Estimate of a Population Mean: s Unknown Adequate Sample Size Usually, a sample size of n ≥ 30 is adequate when using the expression 𝑥 ± 𝑡𝛼/2 𝑠/ 𝑛 to develop an interval estimate of a population mean. If the population distribution is highly skewed or contains outliers, a sample size of 50 or more is recommended. If the population is not normally distributed but is roughly symmetric, a sample size as small as 15 will suffice. If the population is believed to be at least approximately normal, a sample size of less than 15 can be used. © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 32 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Summary of Interval Estimation Procedures for a Population Mean © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 33 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Sample Size for an Interval Estimate of a Population Mean Let E = the desired margin of error. E is the amount added to and subtracted from the point estimate to obtain an interval estimate. If a desired margin of error is selected prior to sampling, the sample size necessary to satisfy the margin of error can be determined. © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 34 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Sample Size for an Interval Estimate of a Population Mean Margin of Error 𝐸 = 𝑧𝛼/2 𝜎 𝑛 Necessary Sample Size n= (𝑧𝛼/2 )2 𝜎 2 𝐸2 © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 35 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Sample Size for an Interval Estimate of a Population Mean The Necessary Sample Size equation requires a value for the population standard deviation s . If s is unknown, a preliminary or planning value for s can be used in the equation. 1. Use the estimate of the population standard deviation computed in a previous study. 2. Use a pilot study to select a preliminary study and use the sample standard deviation from the study. 3. Use judgment or a “best guess” for the value of s . © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 36 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Sample Size for an Interval Estimate of a Population Mean Example: Cost of renting Automobiles in United States A previous study that investigated the cost of renting automobiles in the United States found a mean cost of approximately $55 per day for renting a midsize automobile with a standard deviation of $9.65. Suppose the project director wants an estimate of the population mean daily rental cost such that there is a .95 probability that the sampling error is $2 or less. How large a sample size is needed to meet the required precision? © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 37 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Sample Size for an Interval Estimate of a Population Mean Example: Cost of renting Automobiles in United States 𝐸 = 𝑧𝛼/2 𝜎 =2 𝑛 At 95% confidence, z.025 = 1.96. Recall that s = 9.65. 𝑛= (1.96)2 (9.65)2 (2)2 = 89.43 ⋍ 90 The sample size needs to be at least 90 mid size automobile rentals in order to satisfy the project director’s $2 margin-of-error requirement. © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 38 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Interval Estimate of a Population Proportion The general form of an interval estimate of a population proportion is: 𝑝 + Margin of Error © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 39 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Interval Estimate of a Population Proportion The sampling distribution of 𝑝 plays a key role in computing the margin of error for this interval estimate. The sampling distribution of 𝑝 can be approximated by a normal distribution whenever np > 5 and n(1 – p) > 5. © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 40 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Interval Estimate of a Population Proportion Normal Approximation of Sampling Distribution of 𝑝 © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 41 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Interval Estimate of a Population Proportion 𝑝 ± 𝑧𝛼/2 𝑝(1 − 𝑝) 𝑛 where: 1 - is the confidence coefficient, z/2 is the z value providing an area of /2 in the upper tail of the standard normal probability distribution, and 𝑝 is the sample proportion © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 42 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Interval Estimate of a Population Proportion Example: Survey of women golfers A national survey of 900 women golfers was conducted to learn how women golfers view their treatment at golf courses in United States. The survey found that 396 of the women golfers were satisfied with the availability of tee times. Suppose one wants to develop a 95% confidence interval estimate for the proportion of the population of women golfers satisfied with the availability of tee times. © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 43 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Interval Estimate of a Population Proportion Example: Survey of women golfers 𝑝 ± 𝑧𝛼/2 𝑝(1 − 𝑝) 𝑛 where: n = 900, 𝑝 = 396/900 = .44, z/2 = 1.96 . 44 ±1.96 .44(1−.44) 900 = .44 ± .0324 Survey results enable us to state with 95% confidence that between 40.76% and 47.24% of all women golfers are satisfied with the availability of tee times. © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 44 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Using Excel to construct a confidence interval Excel Formula and Value Worksheet © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 45 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Sample Size for an Interval Estimate of a Population Proportion Margin of Error 𝑝(1−𝑝) 𝑛 E = 𝑧𝛼/2 Solving for the necessary sample size n, we get 2 𝑧𝛼/2 𝑝 1 − 𝑝 𝑛= 𝐸2 However, 𝑝 will not be known until after we have selected the sample. We will use the planning value p* for 𝑝. © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 46 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Sample Size for an Interval Estimate of a Population Proportion Necessary Sample Size 𝑛= 𝑧𝛼/2 2 ∗ 𝑝 1 − 𝑝∗ 𝐸2 The planning value p* can be chosen by: 1. Using the sample proportion from a previous sample of the same or similar units, or 2. Selecting a preliminary sample and using the sample proportion from this sample. 3. Using judgment or a “best guess” for a p* value. 4. Otherwise, using .50 as the p* value. © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 47 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Sample Size for an Interval Estimate of a Population Proportion Example: Survey of women golfers Suppose the survey director wants to estimate the population proportion with a margin of error of .025 at 95% confidence. How large a sample size is needed to meet the required precision? (A previous sample of similar units yielded .44 for the sample proportion.) © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 48 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Sample Size for an Interval Estimate of a Population Proportion Example: Survey of women golfers E = 𝑧𝛼/2 𝑝∗ (1−𝑝∗ ) 𝑛 = .025 At 95% confidence, z.0125 = 1.96. Recall that p* = .44. 2 ∗ 𝑝 1 − 𝑝∗ 1.96 2 (.44) .56 𝑛= = = 1514.5 2 2 𝐸 (.025) A sample of size 1515 is needed to reach a desired precision of + .025 at 95% confidence. 𝑧𝛼/2 © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 49 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Sample Size for an Interval Estimate of a Population Proportion Note: We used .44 as the best estimate of p in the preceding expression. If no information is available about p, then .5 is often assumed because it provides the highest possible sample size. If we had used p = .5, the recommended n would have been 1537. © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 50 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) Implications of Big Data As the sample size becomes extremely large, the margin of error becomes extremely small and resulting confidence intervals become extremely narrow. No interval estimate will accurately reflect the parameter being estimated unless the sample is relatively free of nonsampling error. Statistical inference along with information collected from other sources can help in making the most informed decision. © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 51 Essentials of Modern Business Statistics (7e) End of Chapter 8 © 2018 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 52
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