UK Projections
Anne Misra
15th May 2012, Bern
What’s in this presentation
 Overview of UK Projections
 Underlying models
oUK Emissions Inventory
oDECC Energy Model
Overview of UK Projections 1
The work is funded by Defra, DECC and Devolved Administrations
Pollutant
Gothenburg
NECD
Emissions
Emissions in
Protocol target in ceiling target in
2010 (kt)
2010 (kt)
2010 (kt)
NOx
SO2
NMVOCs
NH3
1,106
406
789
284
1,181
625
1,200
297
1,167
585
1,200
297
Methodology:
Eproj = (A2010 * AD) * EFproj
Where E = emission, A = activity, AD = activity driver and EF = emission factor
Overview of UK Projections 2
 GENERAL ASSUMPTIONS: THE “WITH MEASURES”
PROJECTIONS SCENARIO
o Only consider firm and funded polices
o All operators comply with new legislation
o New abatement is applied to sources in order to meet the limits imposed by
new regulations or in response to the impacts of trading mechanisms
Overview of UK Projections 3
Data sources:
oUK National Atmospheric Emission Inventory (NAEI)
oThe Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) Updated
Energy Projections
oThe Department for Transport (DfT) 2011 traffic forecasts, COPERT
IV emission factors for NOx and NH3 and Transport Research
Laboratory (TRL), Transport for London (TfL)
oupdated projections of livestock numbers and fertiliser use to 2030
using data derived from the FAPRI agricultural model by Queens
University Belfast on behalf of Defra
UK Emissions Inventory 1
AMEC, Aether, SKM
Enviros
http://naei.defra.gov.uk/
http://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/reports/cat07/1203221052_UK_IIR_2012_final.pdf
UK Emissions Inventory 2
Methods and data source
o
•
•
•
UK Statistics
Process operators or trade associations (ETS EU)
Estimated Activity data
o
•
•
•
For activity data:
For emission factors:
Operator emissions data
UK-specific methodology based emission factors
Estimated emission factors
(http://naei.defra.gov.uk/data_warehouse.php)
The DECC Energy & Emissions Projections Model
 Developed by the UK Department for Climate Change
 Core analytical and modelling tool for total UK CO2 projections
 Model of the whole UK energy market, providing conditional
forecasts of future energy use and associated CO2 emissions
 Single Market Equilibrium Model
o A mathematical representation of the UK energy market in equilibrium (
UK energy demand = UK energy supply)
 Mostly top-down rather than bottom up equations
o top-down models represent aggregate demand
http://www.decc.gov.uk/assets/decc/11/about-us/economics-social-research/3134updated-energy-and-emissions-projections-october.pdf
Planned Improvements
Task
Further Embedding of Technology Infrastructure for Projection
Scenarios into the NAEI.
Aim
To update the current projections database to include technology and
policy and measure level details for a number of key sectors (Power
Stations, Cement & Lime, Domestic and Road Transport) and to
develop a framework/methodology for including all others sectors over
a period of time as funds allow at a later date.
The focus is on the NECD pollutants and PM.
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