Wyoming Insight
WYOGOV
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DIVISION • JUNE 2017
Energy index: natural gas and crude oil prices, rig counts, and oil & gas employment.1,3,8
$12
($ per MMBtu)
($ per bbl.)
Opal Hub
W. Texas Int.
$9
$120
$90
$6
60
( Rigs)
Oil & Gas Jobs
Oil Rigs
Gas Rigs
CBM Rigs
(000s Jobs)
25
48
20
36
15
24
10
12
5
$60
$3
$30
$0
2014
2015
2016
$0
2017
 The Opal Hub natural gas price averaged $2.63 per MMBtu in June, a decrease of 5.4% compared to May but $0.25 per MMBtu higher than a year ago. WTI crude oil price decreased by 6.9% in June (compared to May) and was $3.62 per bbl. lower in a year‐over‐year comparison.
NATURAL GAS
Historical Spot Prices 1
Apr 2017
Opal Hub
Cheyenne Hub
Henry Hub
$2.76
$2.74
$3.08
Futures 2 (As of 06.28.17)
NYMEX ‐ Henry Hub
Jan 2017 CREG 5
3
2016
0
2017
 Oil & gas jobs numbered 11,400 in May, 1,700 more when compared to a year ago. Active oil rigs were 10 in May while the conventional gas rig count was 10. Note: Oil & gas jobs includes both the NAICS 211 (oil and gas extraction) and NAICS 213 (support activities for mining) subsectors.
CRUDE OIL
[ $/bbl. ]
May 2017
Apr 2017
$2.78
$2.76
$3.12
$2.63
$2.58
$2.93
WY Sour
WY Sweet
W.Texas Int.
$37.99
$47.47
$51.06
$40.13
$44.81
$48.50
$36.76
$41.44
$45.13
Aug 2017
Sep 2017
Oct 2017
Futures 2 (As of 06.28.17)
Aug 2017
Sep 2017
Oct 2017
$3.08
$3.07
$3.10
NYMEX ‐ WTI
$44.82
$45.06
$45.31
CY 2016
CY 2017‐18
$3.00‐$3.10
CY 2019‐22
$3.10‐$3.25
Jan 2017 CREG 5
CY 2016
CY 2017‐18
CY 2019‐22
Mar 17/16
Apr 17/16
May 17/16
Oil Rigs
Conventional Gas Rigs
Oil APDs
Conventional Gas APDs
9/4
9/5
896/421
108/33
10/3
9/5
500/553
22/41
12/2
12/5
590/508
126/30
3,448
397
YTD May 2016
YTD May 2017
Oil APDs
$36.00
$45.00
$50.00
Apr 2017
May 2017
Jun 2017 TD
WY Sour vs. WTI
WY Sweet vs. WTI
($13.07)
($3.59)
($8.37)
($3.69)
($8.37)
($3.69)
Differential $/bbl.
COAL ‐ PRB*
Historical Spot Prices 1
233
Jun 2017 TD
3
CREG ‐ All Oil
WY APDs
2,456
YTD May 2017
2015
Historical Spot Prices 1
RIGS & APDs*
YTD May 2016
2014
Jun 2017 TD
$2.50
CREG ‐ All Gas ($ per Mcf)
[ $/MMBtu ]
May 2017
0
Apr 2017
[ $/ton ]
May 2017
Jun 2017 TD
PRB* 8800 Btu
$11.61
$11.64
$11.55
Jan 2017 CREG 5
CY 2016
CY 2017‐18
CY 2019‐22
0
10
CREG Surface Coal
$13.25
$13.25
$13.25
YTD May 2016
YTD May 2017
WY Coal Production 11
Mar 17/16
Apr 17/16
May 17/16
Millions of Tons
24.9/20.9
23.7/17.9
24.7/19.7
Gas APDs
CBM APDs
*Active conventional drilling rigs and applications for permits to drill (APDs).
*Powder River Basin
Business indicators: cost of living, unemployment rates, per capita and quarterly personal income, and ag price index.
COST OF LIVING
Wyoming
U.S. CPI8
6
4Q‐2015
2Q‐2016
4Q‐2016
QUARTERLY PI9
3Q‐2016
4Q‐2016
1Q‐2017
0.5%
0.7%
‐0.6%
1.0%
0.6%
2.1%
Wyoming
Rocky Mountain Region
U.S.
‐0.5%
1.4%
1.1%
‐0.6%
0.4%
0.3%
1.1%
1.1%
1.0%
Cost of living measured as the percent change from the preceding year.
JOBLESS RATES8
Mar 2017
Apr 2017
May 2017
Wyoming ‐ Seasonally Adj.
4.5%
4.5%
4.3%
4.4%
4.1%
4.3%
PERSONAL INCOME9
Wyoming
Rocky Mtn
U.S.
Year 2016 ‐ Per Capita
$55,212
$46,635
$49,571
U.S. ‐ Seasonally Adj.
Personal income measured as the percent change from the preceding quarter.
AG PRICE INDEX12
Feb 17/16
Mar 17/16
Apr 17/16
U.S. ‐ All Production
U.S. ‐ Crop Production
U.S. ‐ Livestock Production
92/93
87/84
96/99
95/93
87/82
101/100
97/93
93/86
100/97
Prices received indexes; 2011 base.
Preliminary personal income estimates released on March 28, 2017.
Energy benchmarks: for fiscal and calendar years to date.
SPOT PRICES [ As of June 28, 2017 ]
. . . . . . . . . . .
Opal Hub ($/MMBtu)
Cheyenne Hub ($/MMBtu) . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . .
Henry Hub ($/MMBtu)
. . . . . . . . . . .
W. Texas Int. ($/bbl.)
Powder River Coal ($/ton) . . . . . . . . . . .
Uranium ($/lb.)4
. . . . . . . . . . .
FY 2017 TD
CY 2017 TD
$2.78
$2.71
$2.97
$48.46
$10.25
$22.04
$2.74
$2.72
$3.02
$49.96
$11.54
$22.21
Data sources: 1Bloomberg, 2NYMEX, 3WY Oil & Gas Conservation Commission, 4Ux Consult. Co., 5January 2017 CREG Forecast, 6WY Dept. of Admin. & Info.'s Economic Analysis Division, 7WY Dept. of Revenue, 8U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 9U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 10U.S. Bureau of Census, 11Energy Information Administration, and EAD
12USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service.
WYOMING DEPARTMENT OF ADMINISTRATION & INFORMATION
01
Wyoming Insight
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DIVISION • JUNE 2017
7  State & local shares of 4% sales and use tax collections. [ Growth by County: cumulative change, fiscal year‐to‐date, over the year ]
0.0%
‐7.7%
‐21.8%
‐8.1%
‐20.1%
3.3%
‐8.2%
‐3.5%
‐12.6%
‐10.5%
‐4.3%
‐3.1%
‐9.6%
‐4.3%
‐4.1%
‐6.8%
‐6.7%
‐17.8%
‐10.6%
5.9%
‐6.1%
0.2%
‐36.2%
Albany (4%)
Big Horn (1%)
Campbell (14%)
Carbon (3%)
Converse (4%)
Crook (1%)
Fremont (4%)
Goshen (1%)
Hot Springs (1%)
Johnson (1%)
Laramie (14%)
Lincoln (3%)
Natrona (12%)
Niobrara (1%)
Park (5%)
Platte (1%)
Sheridan (4%)
Sublette (4%)
Sweetwater (9%)
Teton (10%)
Uinta (2%)
Washakie (1%)
Weston (1%)
 After eleven months of fiscal 2017 (July 1, 2016 through May 31, 2017), sales and use tax collections lagged fiscal 2016 by $57.2 million or 9.6 percent. Only Teton, Crook, and Washakie counties were able to generate gains in collections compared to a year ago.
$0.0
‐$0.5
‐$21.2
‐$1.2
‐$5.6
$0.2
‐$2.0
‐$0.2
‐$0.5
‐$0.9
‐$3.3
‐$0.5
‐$6.9
‐$0.1
‐$1.1
‐$0.5
‐$1.4
‐$5.2
‐$6.0
$2.8
‐$0.8
$0.0
‐$2.3
Note: Value in parentheses represents share of total collections.
7
 State & local shares of 4% sales and use tax collections. [ Growth by Industry Sector: cumulative change, fiscal year‐to‐date, over the year ]
‐23.7%
Mining & Logging (12%)
‐31.5%
‐$20.5
Construction (2%)
‐13.4%
‐$5.7
Manufacturing (3%)
‐17.2%
‐4.0%
4.2%
‐8.5%
‐$2.5
Wholesale Trade (7%)
‐$8.2
Retail Trade (34%)
‐$7.6
$1.4
Transport. & Utilities (6%)
‐$1.1
Information (2%)
‐27.5%
‐$7.4
Financial Activities (4%)
‐1.7%
Prof. & Bus. Services (1%)
‐0.5%
Leisure & Hospitality (13%)
‐3.3%
‐$0.1
‐$0.3
‐$2.0
Public Administration (11%)
‐12.2%
 Transportation & utilities was the only industry to report a gain in collections when compared to a year ago showing improvement at 4.2 percent. The mining sector recorded the largest loss in collections (‐$20.5 million) followed by wholesale trade (‐$8.2 million).
Note: Value in parentheses represents share of total collections.
‐$3.2
Educ., Health, & Other (4%)
 Nonfarm wage and salary employment.8 [ Growth by Industry Sector: Year‐over‐year by percent and jobs; seasonally adjusted ]
8.6%
‐4.7%
Mining & Logging (7%)
1,600
Construction (7%)
0.0%
‐10.5%
‐1,000
Manufacturing (3%)
0
Wholesale Trade (3%)
‐2.0%
‐900
Retail Trade (11%)
‐1.4%
‐600
Transp. & Utilities (5%)
0.0%
Information (1%)
0.0%
Financial Activities (4%)
‐5.6%
‐200
0
0
Prof. & Bus. Services (6%)
‐0.4%
‐1,000
Education & Health (10%)
‐1.1%
‐100
Leisure & Hospitality (13%)
0.0%
0.0%
‐2.0%
‐400
Other Services (4%)
0
Federal Govt. (3%)
State & Local Govt. (23%)
 Overall, Wyoming had 3,900 fewer jobs in May compared to a year ago, a decline of 1.4 percent. Industries associated with goods production added 600 jobs, while service‐providing jobs declined by 4,500, both in comparison to a year ago. The private sector decreased at a 1.2 percent rate, resulting in a reduction of 2,600 jobs while government jobs decreased by 1,300 from a year ago.
0
Note: Value in parentheses represents share of total jobs.
‐1,300
 Residential building permits.10 [ Comparisons: Year‐to‐date total, single family, and multifamily units ]
704
702
623
622
82
YTD May 2016
YTD May 2017
Total
YTD May 2016
YTD May 2017
Single Family
79
YTD May 2016
 The number of total housing units permitted through the end of May 2017 decreased by 0.3 percent compared to 2016. Single family units were ahead of last year's pace by 0.2 percent. The number of multifamily units declined by 3.2 percent or 3 units during the same period compared to 2016.
YTD May 2017
Multifamily
 CONTACT: Jim Robinson, Principal Economist, Economic Analysis Division, Dept. of Admin. & Info., WY State Government.

QUESTIONS? Phone: 307.777.7221 E‐mail: [email protected] Website: http://ai.wyo.gov/economic‐analysis
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