The Transportation Revenue Estimator
and Needs Determination System (TRENDS) Model
Developed by the Texas Transportation Institute
and the
Texas Department of Transportation
Jessica Castiglione, P.E.
Texas Department of Transportation
Project Supervisor
David R. Ellis, Ph.D.
Texas Transportation Institute
Research Scientist
The TRENDS Model is designed to provide transportation planners, policy makers and
the public with a tool to forecast revenues and expenses for the Texas Department of
Transportation (TxDOT) for the period 2010 through 2035. The User, through
interactive windows, can control a number of variables related to assumptions regarding
statewide transportation needs, population growth rates, fuel efficiency, inflation rates,
taxes, fees and other elements. The output is a set of tables and graphs showing a
forecast of revenues, expenditures and fund balances for each year of the analysis
period.
TRENDS will be updated on a monthly basis to include the latest cash forecasts and
letting schedules from TxDOT. In addition, as updates regarding population forecasts,
inflation rates, fuel efficiency, and other variables become available, they will be
incorporated into the model.
This paper will take the User through the model and its basic calculations by describing
each of the tabs at the bottom of the Excel spreadsheet. Then, there will be a brief
description of the calculations on each tab and a description of the “Data Input and
Summary” tab where the results are presented.
2
Table of Contents
Accessing the Model....................................................................................................................3
TRENDS Model Input
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
2.10
2.11
2.12
2.13
2.14
2.15
New Capacity ............................................................................................................... 4
State Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Variables ................................................................. 4
Federal Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Variables ............................................................ 7
Indexing the Motor Fuels Tax .................................................................................... 8
Vehicle Registration Fee Variables ............................................................................ 9
Percent of Revenue Dedicated to Transportation ................................................... 9
VMT Tax Variables .................................................................................................... 10
Fuel Efficiency Variables .......................................................................................... 10
Fund 006 Allocations................................................................................................. 13
Maintenance Variables .............................................................................................. 14
Expense Variables ...................................................................................................... 15
Bond Finance Variables ............................................................................................ 19
Population Option ..................................................................................................... 22
Local Options ............................................................................................................. 23
Output Option............................................................................................................ 26
TRENDS Model Output
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
Summary of Variables Chosen for Analysis .......................................................... 28
Summary of Revenues and Expenses by Year ...................................................... 28
Revenues minus Expenses by Year Graph............................................................. 29
Cumulative Revenues minus Expenses by Year Graph ....................................... 30
Revenue/Expense Statement 2009-2030................................................................. 30
Revenue/Expense Statement 2009-2035................................................................. 31
Revenue Statement for Local Options Selected 2010-2030 .................................. 32
Revenue Statement for Local Options Selected 2010-2035 .................................. 32
Appendices
Appendix A .................................................... How Population Projections were Estimated
Appendix B .............................................. Definition of Commercial and Personal Vehicles
3
1. ACCESSING THE MODEL
The TRENDS is available on the web at http://trends-tti.tamu.edu. Click on the
“Proceed” button to begin the analysis.
The TRENDS model will take you through all of the parameters that must be considered
in order to produce a result. Once you click on the “Proceed” button on the first page of
the model, the following screen will appear:
4
2. TRENDS MODEL INPUT
This chapter offers a step-by-step guide on how to interpret the questions asked in the
TRENDS model. Each section in this User’s Guide is ordered according to how each
section appears in the TRENDS model.
2.1 New Capacity
The first question you will be asked is: “Would you like to invest additional state funds in
increased transportation capacity?” (Yes or No). The default answer is “No”. If you
answer “Yes”, additional questions appear. You will be asked how much additional
capacity (in dollars) you would like to provide (in billions of dollars), in what year you
would like the improvements to begin, and the year in which you would like the
improvements to be completed. (see below)
2.2 State Gasoline and Diesel Tax Variables
Once you have entered the amount of new capacity that is desired as well as the years
in which the improvements are to be done, the TRENDS Model will now ask you a
series of questions regarding tax rates. Prior to beginning the analysis, the screen
looks as follows:
5
As you can see, the first question you will be asked relates to the state gasoline tax.
The current state gasoline tax rate is 20 cents per gallon. The TRENDS Model asks if
you would like to increase the gasoline tax rate. The default answer is “No.” If you
change the answer to “Yes”, TRENDS will ask the amount of the increase and the fiscal
year in which you would like the increase to become effective. For cent values less than
1, you will need to enter a leading 0 first. For example, 1/10th of a cent increase would
need to be typed as 0.1. (see below)
Once you have entered this information, you will notice that TRENDS will ask if you
would like to increase the gasoline tax again. Again, the default answer is “No”. If you
change answer to “Yes”, the model again asks for the amount of the increase and the
fiscal year in which the increase is to become effective. (see below)
6
The next set of questions pertains to the state diesel fuel tax. This section of the model
operates exactly like the gasoline tax section. As can be seen in the screen shot above,
the TRENDS Model asks if you would like to increase the state diesel fuel tax. Again,
the default answer is “No”. If you would like to increase the state diesel fuel tax, simply
change the answer to “Yes”. When the answer to the question is changed to “Yes”, like
in the gasoline tax section, an expanded menu becomes visible. (see below)
7
You are then asked to enter the amount of the increase in cents per gallon and the year
in which you would like the increase to become effective. You also have the option of
increasing the diesel fuel tax again by entering the amount of the second increase and
the fiscal year it is to become effective. For cent values less than 1, you will need to
enter a leading zero first. For example, 1/10th of a cent increase would need to be typed
as 0.1.
2.3 Federal Gasoline and Diesel Tax Variables
The TRENDS Model also allows you to assess the estimated impact of an increase in
federal fuel taxes. This section of the model works identically to the state fuel tax
section.
As you can see in the screen shot below, the first question you will be asked relates to
the federal gasoline tax. The current federal gasoline tax rate is 20 cents per gallon.
The TRENDS Model asks if you would like to increase the federal gasoline tax rate.
The default answer is “No.” (see below)
As in the state fuel tax section, if you change the answer to “Yes”, TRENDS will ask the
amount of the increase and the fiscal year in which you would like the increase to
become effective. For cent values less than 1, you will need to enter a leading zero first.
For example, 1/10th of a cent increase would need to be typed as 0.1.
As with the state motor fuels taxes, you also have the option to increase the federal
gasoline tax a second time. The same procedure is followed for the federal diesel fuel
tax.
8
The last line of this section asks “Total federal reimbursement as a percent of federal
fuel tax revenue.” This space allows you to enter the amount that will be reimbursed to
you from total federal fuel tax revenue collected. The default answer is 85 percent. For
cent values less than 1, you will need to enter a leading 0 first. For example, 1/10th of a
cent increase would need to be typed as 0.1. (see below)
2.4 Indexing the Motor Fuels Tax
The next section of the TRENDS Model relates to the question of indexing the motor
fuels tax. There are two options for indexing the state motor fuels tax: the tax can be
indexed to the state Highway Cost Index or it can be indexed to the Consumer Price
Index. The default answer to both indexing options is “No”. If you wish to index the
state fuel tax, simple change the default answer to “Yes”. (NOTE: Only one of the
indexing options can be used. The model will not allow you to answer “Yes” to both
options.) If you decide to index the state motor fuels tax, then enter the fiscal year in
which you want indexing to begin. (see below)
9
2.5 Percent Revenue dedicated to Transportation
Under provisions of the Texas Constitution, three-quarters of state motor fuel taxes are
dedicated to transportation with one-quarter dedicated to public education.
Approximately one percent is retained by the Comptroller of Public Accounts. The
TRENDS model provides you with the option to change the percentage allocation of the
increase in state motor fuel taxes you have entered. (This entry DOES NOT change the
distribution of the existing 20 cent per gallon fuel tax. It only changes the allocation of
the INCREASE in state motor fuels taxes.) The default answer is 74 percent.
2.6 Vehicle Registration Fee Variables
The next set of questions relates to vehicle registration fees. First, the TRENDS Model
asks if you would like to increase vehicle registration fees. Again, the default answer is
“No”. (see below)
If you would like to increase vehicle registration fees, change the answer to “Yes”.
Once the option is changed, an additional set of questions appears. (see below)
10
The TRENDS Model asks you to enter the PERCENT increase in vehicle registration
fees and the fiscal year in which you want the increase to become effective. (For
example, if you would like to double vehicle registration fees, enter 100 percent.) As
with the fuel tax options, you have ability to increase registration fees again and set the
effective data of the second increase.
2.7 Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Tax
The next section of the model relates to imposing a state vehicle miles traveled tax, or
VMT tax). Again, the default answer is “No”. (see below)
If you would like to impose a VMT fee, change the answer to “Yes”. Once the answer is
changed to “Yes”, a new set of options appear.
You are asked to enter the rate (in cents per mile) of the VMT tax on personal vehicles
as well as the rate (again, in cents per mile) of the VMT tax on commercial vehicles.
11
(See appendix for criteria used to differentiate between personal and commercial
vehicles). Next, you are asked to enter the effective date of the tax. Finally, if you wish
to stop collecting the state gasoline tax and/or the state diesel fuel tax you have that
option by entering the last year in which the fuel tax will be collected. If you want to
continue collecting the fuel tax in addition to the VMT tax, set the value to 2035. For
decimal values less than one, you will need to enter a preceding zero first. (see below)
2.8 Fuel Efficiency Variables
Projections of fuel economy, along with projections of the future population, are key
elements of projecting future revenues. In late 2006, TxDOT contracted with
Cambridge Systematics to forecast future levels of fuel efficiency for personal and
commercial vehicles. The Cambridge Systematics analysis included alternative
assumptions regarding the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles. This analysis was then
adjusted to account for the proportional contribution to total vehicle miles traveled of
each vehicle type in Texas. Low, medium and high fuel efficiency scenarios were
produced. These alternative fuel efficiency scenarios are presented below. (See
appendix for criteria used in this model to differentiate between personal and
commercial vehicles).
12
Year
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
3035
Low MPG Scenario
Personal Commercial
Vehicles
Vehicles
18.3657
6.0057
19.0761
6.0183
19.8017
6.0322
20.5429
6.0476
21.3000
6.0647
22.0687
6.0882
22.4190
6.1089
22.7793
6.1311
23.1505
6.1548
23.5334
6.1802
23.9288
6.2075
24.3378
6.2368
24.7616
6.2684
25.2014
6.3026
25.6587
6.3395
26.1351
6.3796
26.6324
6.4230
27.1529
6.4704
27.6988
6.5220
28.2728
6.5784
28.8782
6.6401
29.5184
6.7079
30.1977
6.7825
30.9207
6.8648
31.6932
6.9559
32.0659
6.9889
32.4429
7.0222
32.8245
7.0555
33.2104
7.0891
33.6010
7.1228
High MPG Scenario
Personal Commercial
Vehicles
Vehicles
18.3657
6.0057
19.0857
6.0192
19.8412
6.0357
20.6534
6.0570
21.5627
6.0864
22.5354
6.1338
23.1374
6.1749
23.7531
6.2203
24.4243
6.2706
25.1604
6.3264
25.9733
6.3885
26.8773
6.4579
27.8910
6.5356
29.0376
6.6230
30.3475
6.7216
31.8604
6.8334
33.6301
6.9605
35.7302
7.1059
38.2651
7.2732
41.3873
7.4667
44.9660
7.6704
49.1075
7.8851
53.9533
8.1117
59.6970
8.3513
66.6102
8.6049
70.5898
8.7097
74.8073
8.8158
79.2767
8.9232
84.0132
9.0319
89.0326
9.1419
Average MPG Scenario
Personal Commercial
Vehicles
Vehicles
18.3657
6.0057
19.0809
6.0188
19.8215
6.0340
20.5981
6.0523
21.4313
6.0755
22.3021
6.1110
22.7782
6.1419
23.2662
6.1757
23.7874
6.2127
24.3469
6.2533
24.9510
6.2980
25.6076
6.3474
26.3263
6.4020
27.1195
6.4628
28.0031
6.5306
28.9977
6.6065
30.1313
6.6918
31.4415
6.7882
32.9819
6.8976
34.8300
7.0225
36.9221
7.1553
39.3129
7.2965
42.0755
7.4471
45.3088
7.6080
49.1517
7.7804
51.3279
7.8493
53.6251
7.9190
56.0506
7.9894
58.6118
8.0605
61.3168
8.1324
The TRENDS model allows the user to enter the assumption regarding fuel efficiency
for both personal and commercial vehicles to be used in calculating the amount of fuel
used and, in turn, the amount of fuel tax revenues derived from the fuel that is
consumed. The fuel efficiency option is selected under the heading “Fuel Efficiency
Variables”. The default selection is the “Average” scenario. (see below)
13
2.9 Fund 006 Allocations to other Agencies
Several allocations are made from Fund 006 (“The Highway Fund”) to other state
agencies. Over the years, as the State has sought new sources of general revenue, the
number of agencies who receive transfers from Fund 006 has grown. Currently,
agencies who receive revenues from Fund 006 include the Texas Department of Public
Safety, the Office of the Attorney General, State Health and Human Services
Commission, the Texas Department of Corrections and others. These expenditures
account for 13.8 percent of total outflow from Fund 006.1 (Click here for more
information regarding Fund 6 allocation.)
Therefore, this section asks if you wish to eliminate some or all of the fund 006
allocations to other state agencies. The default answer for this question is “No”. If you
would like to eliminate some or all of the fund 006 allocations to other agencies, change
the answer to “Yes”. Once the answer is changed to “Yes”, a new set of options
appear. (see below)
1
Legislative Budget Board. Overview of the State Highway Fund 0006 Revenues and Allocations, the Texas Mobility
Fund, and the Texas Rail Relocation and Improvement Fund. Austin: April 2008.
14
You are first asked to enter the percent of fund 006 allocations to other agencies that
you wish to be eliminated. Next, you are asked to enter in the year in which you want
fund 006 allocations to other agencies to be eliminated. Note that model will not allow
you to enter any year greater than 2035.
2.10 Maintenance Variables
This section deals with the different funding scenarios outlined by the 2030 Committee
report that could exist with estimated preventative maintenance and rehabilitative needs
for the current road infrastructure maintained by TxDOT.
Each year, ride quality and pavement condition is measured to determine pavement
scores on Texas roadways. Low levels of distress such as rutting, cracking and a good
ride quality result in a high score. Pavement Condition Scores that are from 100 – 90
are categorized as ‘Very Good’; 89 – 70 are ‘Good’; 69 – 50 are ‘Fair’; 49 – 35 are
‘Poor’ and 34 and below are ‘Very Poor.’ The percentage of roads in “Good” or better
condition consists of the percentage of total pavement in Texas with a pavement
condition score of 70 or above.2
This section first asks the user whether they want to use the current TxDOT
maintenance scenario. By selecting “Yes,” you are assuming that the existing 191
thousand on-system lane-miles will be funded the current budgeted levels over the
course of the analysis period. This level of funding results in an estimated 20 percent or
less of pavements in “Good” or better condition by 2030.
Alternatively, by selecting “No,” a new set of options appear. The TRENDS model then
asks, “To the right are three alternative selections representing the percent of pavement
in “Good” or better condition. Select one of the 2030 Committee pavement
maintenance recommendations:” The Committee estimated that in order to achieve 80
percent “Good” better roads in Texas by 2030, $64 billion will be required to treat 204
2
2030 Committee. 2030 Committee Texas Transportation Needs Report. Austin. February 2009. (pp. 25-26)
15
thousand miles of roadway (191 thousand existing miles plus additional lane-miles
added). For 87 percent, the Committee predicted $73 billion would be required to treat
204 thousand miles of roadway. Finally, for 90 percent, $77 billion would be needed to
treat 204 thousand miles of Texas roadway by 2030.3 (see below) A detailed description
of roadway maintenance projections can be found here.
Note: The 2030 Committee recommended that in order to “preserve asset value” of the
current transportation infrastructure in Texas, roads should be maintained at 90 percent
“Good or Better” pavement condition.4
2.11 Expense Variables
The first question in this section asks, “Use default values for category expense
increases? (Currently 0 percent)” (Yes or No.)” The default answer is “Yes”. (see below)
3
4
2030 Committee. 2030 Committee Texas Transportation Needs Report. Austin. February 2009. (p. 18)
2030 Committee. 2030 Committee Texas Transportation Needs Report. Austin. February 2009. (p. 19)
16
If you select “No,” an new set of options appear. Next, the TRENDS model will ask you
for the increases in expenses that you anticipate for select TxDOT expense categories.
(For a detailed summary of each of these expense categories, click here and scroll to
page 3)
First, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in Category 5 CMAQ
(Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality) expenses from 2020-2035. This category deals
with federal funds directed toward addressing attainment of air quality standards within
non-attainment areas. Enter the percent increase in Category 5 expenses that you
anticipate here.
Next, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in Category 7 STP Metro
Mobility and Maintenance expenses (2020-2035). This category addresses
transportation needs by Metropolitan Planning Organizations in population regions with
200,000 or greater. These funds are allocated directly from the FHWA. Enter the
percent increase in Category 7 expenses that you anticipate here.
Next, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in Category 8 Federal
Safety expenses (2020-2035). This category deals with federal funds directed toward
installation of railroad crossing guards and other safety improvement projects. Enter the
percent increase in Category 8 expenses that you anticipate here.
Next, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in Category 9 Federal
Enhancement expenses (2020-2035). This category deals with funding toward roadway
rest areas and roadway enhancement projects. Enter the percent increase in Category
9 expenses that you anticipate here.
Next, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in Category 10
Congressional Earmarks TPWD expenses (2020-2035). This category deals with
federal funds allocated toward enhancing state park roads, railroad grade crossing
repairs, the Coordinated Border Infrastructure Program and Congressional High Priority
Districts. Enter the percent increase in Category 10 expenses that you anticipate here.
17
Next, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in Category 11 District
Discretionary funding (2020-2035). This category deals with transportation projects
selected at the discretion of the TxDOT district. Enter the percent increase in Category
11 expenses that you anticipate here.5 (see below)
The next question in this sections asks, “Use default values for other expense
increases? (Currently 5 percent). (Yes or No.)” The 5 percent is calculated based on the
normal projected increase in inflation and the normal increase for other goods and
services from 2020-2035. The default answer to this question is “Yes”. (see below)
5
Texas State Senate. Senate Finance Committee and Senate Transportation and Homeland Security Committee,
Allocations of State Transportation Resources Hearing. Austin. March 1, 2006.
18
If you anticipate expenses to increase at a different rate than 5 percent per year, select
No. Now, a new set of options appear. Next, the TRENDS model will ask you for the
increases in expenses that you anticipate. You will notice that the default answer for
these choices is 5 percent.
First, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in engineering,
administration, and research expenses between 2020 and 2035. Enter the percent
increase in these expenses that you anticipate here.
Next, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in Right of Way expenses.
Enter the percent increase in these expenses that you anticipate here.
Next, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in Pavement Maintenance
and Construction expenses between 2020 and 2035. Enter the percent increase that
you anticipate here.
Next, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in Gulf Intracoastal
Waterway (GIWW) Operations expenses between 2020 and 2035. One of TxDOT’s
main responsibilities is to provide lands, easements, realignments and relocations
required during construction and maintenance.6 (Click here to find more information
about TxDOT funding of the GIWW.) Enter the percent increase that you anticipate
here.
6
Texas Department of Transportation. Gulf Intracoastal Waterway 2005-2006 Legislative Report. Austin. 2005.
19
Next, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in Travel/Traffic expenses
between 2020 and 2035. Enter the percent increase that you anticipate here.
Next, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in vehicle registration
expenses between 2020 and 2035. Enter the percent increase that you anticipate here.
Next, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in Automobile Burglary and
Theft Prevention Authority Assessment (ABTPA) expenses between 2020 and 2035.
This authority is intended to support statewide law enforcement through public
awareness, education, and auto theft reduction initiatives.7 Enter the percent increase
in ABTPA expenses that you anticipate here.
Next, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in cost of other agencies
funded by TxDOT between 2020 and 2035. Enter the percent increase that you
anticipate here.
Finally, the model will ask if you anticipate an annual increase in contributions from
TxDOT to Comptroller and Retirement between 2020 and 2035. Enter the percent
increase that you anticipate here. (see below)
7
Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts web site. Texas Taxes - Texas Automobile Burglary and Theft Prevention
Authority Assessment, Accessed 28 March 2010. <http://www.window.state.tx.us/taxinfo/insurance/atp.html>
20
2.12 Bond Finance Variables
The first question in this sections asks, “Do you want to issue Proposition 12 bonds?
(Yes or No.)” The default answer is “No”. Proposition 12 bonds were authorized to give
up to$5 billion in general obligation bonds (bonds supported using general revenue
rather than fuel tax revenues) to be spent for transportation projects.8 (see below
(Detailed information about Proposition 12 bonds can be found by clicking here.)
If you select “Yes,” a new set of options appear. Next, the TRENDS model will then ask
you the Proposition 12 amount in billions of dollars you wish to issue. For decimal
values less than 1, you will need to enter a preceding “0”. Next, the model will ask for
the number of years in which you expect to receive Proposition 12 proceeds. The
smallest number of years you can enter for this question is 3. Finally, the TRENDS
model will ask you for the first year in which you wish to receive Proposition 12
proceeds. (see below)
8
Texas Department of Transportation web site. Proposition 12 Fact sheet, Accessed 28 March 2010.
< http://www.dot.state.tx.us/project_information/prop12/facts.htm>
21
The TRENDS model then will ask “Do you want is issue Proposition 14 Bonds? (Yes or
No).” The default answer is “No.” Proposition 14 bonds can be issued by state
transportation agencies to fund transportation-related projects. These bonds are short
term and are secured by the state highway fund. These bonds are intended to help
address short-term cash flow shortfalls for TxDOT and to accelerate transportation
project financing.9 (see below) A detailed description about Proposition 14 bonds can
be found by clicking here.
If you select “Yes,” a new set of options appear. Next, the TRENDS model will then ask
you the Proposition 14 bond amount in billions of dollars you wish to issue. For decimal
values less than 1, you will need to enter a preceding “0”. Next, the model will ask for
the number of years in which you expect to receive Proposition 14 proceeds. The
smallest number of years you can enter in this space is 3. The TRENDS model will
then ask you for the first year in which you wish to receive Proposition 14 proceeds.
Finally, you will be asked for the year in which you expect to begin paying back
Proposition 14 bonds. (see below)
9
House Research Organization. Proposition 14: Allowing borrowing by the Texas Transportation Commission.
Austin. 2008. <http://www.hro.house.state.tx.us/focus/prop78-14.pdf>
22
After you are finished filling out the responses on this page, click on “Continue” to move
to the next set of questions.
2.13 Population Option
The TRENDS model presents four options for population projections from 2010 to 2030.
The first option suggests that migration rates will be one-half those experienced from
1990 to 2000 in Texas. This is the most conservative option, or the “low” scenario. The
next option suggests that migration rates will be equal to those experienced from 2000
to 2004. This choice is the default option, or the “medium” scenario. The next option
suggests that migration rates will be equal to those experienced from 2000 to 2007.
This is the “medium-high” growth scenario. The last choice suggests that population
growth will be equal to what was experienced in Texas from 1990 to 2000. This forecast
is the “high” population scenario. Click on the corresponding radio button that you wish
to use. A detailed list of population projections used in this model is provided below.
You may also consult the appendix chapter of this User’s Guide for a detailed
explanation on how these population projections were generated.
23
Population Growth Assumptions for Texas
Year
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
"Low"
Scenario
20,851,820
21,183,522
21,519,983
21,860,876
22,206,348
22,556,046
22,907,223
23,259,904
23,614,497
23,971,472
24,330,646
24,692,181
25,056,041
25,421,596
25,788,871
26,156,723
26,525,342
26,894,510
27,264,173
27,634,725
28,005,740
28,379,265
28,755,407
29,133,905
29,514,719
29,897,410
30,281,758
30,667,584
31,054,394
31,442,197
31,830,575
"Medium"
Scenario
20,851,820
21,229,706
21,619,331
22,020,139
22,432,435
22,856,008
23,287,920
23,728,511
24,178,199
24,637,293
25,105,642
25,583,279
26,070,062
26,565,652
27,069,509
27,581,160
28,100,268
28,626,864
29,160,936
29,702,821
30,252,566
30,812,404
31,382,805
31,963,803
32,555,500
33,158,037
33,771,210
34,395,216
35,029,975
35,675,788
36,332,892
"Med-High"
Scenario
20,851,820
21,250,706
21,662,156
22,086,390
22,523,650
22,973,810
23,433,853
23,903,779
24,383,647
24,873,773
25,373,947
25,883,999
26,403,743
26,932,619
27,470,110
28,015,550
28,568,732
29,129,530
29,697,950
30,274,269
30,858,449
31,452,815
32,057,766
32,673,327
33,299,749
33,936,986
34,584,918
35,243,768
35,913,396
36,593,880
37,285,486
"High"
Scenario
20,851,820
21,306,644
21,776,330
22,260,876
22,761,149
23,276,607
23,805,208
24,347,002
24,902,640
25,473,249
26,058,595
26,659,069
27,275,174
27,906,493
28,553,044
29,213,840
29,889,182
30,578,869
31,283,094
32,002,430
32,736,716
33,488,495
34,258,659
35,047,389
35,855,312
36,682,200
37,528,671
38,395,244
39,281,907
40,189,388
41,117,631
2.14 Local Options
At present, local options for funding the transportation network are limited to revenue
bonds (and tolls), general obligation bonds, a portion of vehicle registration fees, plus
local sales and property taxes. This section of the model allows the user to assess the
impact of local fuel taxes, a local VMT fee and local vehicle registration fees if such
enabling legislation allowing their use were to be adopted by the Texas Legislature. For
the purpose of assessing hypothetical scenarios, the level of analysis built into the
model is the Metropolitan Planning Organization.
2.14-1 Local Revenue Options
The first question in this section asks, “Do you want to do a local option revenue
analysis? (Yes or No.)” The default answer is “No.” By clicking “Yes,” a new set of
options appear. This section allows you to select local revenue projections for
Metropolitain Planning Organizations in Texas. This will allow you to view a statement
of revenue for a specific MPO that you select as well as compare multiple MPO’s in one
24
statement. Click all the MPO’s that you would like to include in the data output here.
(see below)
2.14-2 Local Fuel Tax
The next set of questions relates to local fuel taxes. First, the TRENDS Model asks if
you would like to change the local fuel tax rate. The default answer is “No”.
By selecting “Yes,” a new set of options appear. The TRENDS model then asks, “How
much would you increase the local gasoline tax?” The model requires you to enter the
amount of cents per gallon you wish to increase the local gasoline tax. (For decimal
values less than 1, enter a preceding 0 first). The model then asks, “In which year
would you like the increase to become effective?” Enter the year in which you would like
the tax increase to take effect. Follow the same process for the local diesel tax section.
(see below)
25
2.14-3 Local VMT Tax
The next set of questions relates to local vehicle miles traveled (VMT) tax. The
TRENDS Model first asks if you would like to change the local VMT tax. The default
answer is “No”.
By selecting “Yes,” a new set of options appear. The TRENDS model then asks, “How
much would you like to change the local personal VMT?” The model requires you to
enter the amount of cents per gallon you wish to increase the local personal VMT tax.
Next, the model asks, “How much do you want to change the local commercial VMT?”
(For decimal values less than 1, enter a preceding 0 first). The model then asks, “In
which year would you like the increase to become effective?” Enter the year in which
you would like the tax increase to take effect. (see below)
2.14-4 Local Vehicle Registration Fee
26
The next set of questions relates to local vehicle registration fees. The TRENDS Model
first asks if you would like to change the local vehicle registration Fee. The default
answer is “No”. (see below)
By selecting “Yes,” a new set of options appear. The TRENDS model then asks, “How
much would you like to change the local vehicle passenger fee for vehicles less than
6000 lbs.?” (For decimal values less than 1, enter a preceding 0 first). Next, the model
asks, “How much do you want to change the local passenger vehicle fee for vehicles
greater than 6000 lbs.?” Follow the same process for the local truck fee and local
motorcycle fee questions that follow. The model then asks, “In which year would you
like the increase to become effective?” Enter the year in which you would like the fee
increases to take effect. (see below)
2.14-5 Local Fuel Efficiency
The next set of questions relates to local fuel efficiency. This might be useful if you feel
that your locality has a higher or lower number of fuel efficient vehicles relative to other
areas in Texas. The TRENDS Model first asks if you would like to change the local
Vehicle Registration Fee. The default answer is “No”. (see below)
By selecting “Yes,” a new set of options appear. The TRENDS model then asks you to
select the fuel efficiency for local commercial vehicles. You are provided three options:
low fuel efficiency, average fuel efficiency, and high fuel efficiency. (You may consult
the fuel efficiency discussion at the end of the User’s Guide for a detailed description on
fuel efficiency projections). Follow the same process for selecting the fuel efficiency
assumption for local personal vehicles. (see below)
27
2.15 Output Option
In this section, you are given options that allow you to manipulate how you want your
output to be presented. This section will ask you to check what you want to be
generated in the output. Click all that apply. (see below)
28
Finally, after you enter all your variables into the TRENDS model, you may click
“Submit.”
29
3. TRENDS MODEL OUTPUT
This section provides an explanation of each output view generated from the TRENDS
model. Depending on what you selected in the Output Option section in the model
input, some of the views provided below will not appear in your final output.
3.1 “Variables I have Chosen for this Analysis” Output Window
This page gives you a brief overview of the selections that you provided in the input
section of the TRENDS model. Note that by clicking the “Get PDF format report here” in
the upper left-hand corner, you can generate the page to appear in printable PDF
format. (An example output is provided below)
3.2 “Summary of Revenues and Expenses by Year” Output
This view shows the Projected Revenue and Expenditures (in millions) from 2009 to
2035. Columns include the Fiscal Year, Total Revenues, Maintenance and Operating
Expenditures, New Capacity Expenditures, Annual Balance of Funds, and Cumulative
Balance. Note that by clicking the “Get PDF format report here” in the upper left-hand
corner, you can generate the page to appear in printable PDF format. (An example
output is provided below)
30
3.3 “Graph of Revenues minus Expenses by Year” View
This is a graphical representation of the Annual Balance of Funds (in millions) from
2009 to 2035. This graph displays the year on the X Axis with the revenues on the Y
Axis. Make careful note on the difference between the positive numbers and negative
dollar amounts provided. Negative amounts below the X axis represent budget
shortfalls for that fiscal year. (An example output is provided below).
31
3.4 “Graph of Cumulative Revenues minus Expenses by Year” Output Window
This is a graphical representation of the Cumulative Balance of Funds (in millions) from
2009 to 2035. This graph displays the year on the X Axis with balance of funds along
the Y Axis. Make careful note on the difference between the positive numbers and
negative dollar amounts provided. Negative amounts below the X axis represent
budget shortfalls for that fiscal year. (An example output is provided below)
3.5 “Revenue and Expense Statement for the period 2009-2030” Output Window
This view shows the Revenues and Expenses projected from 2009-2030. Revenue
categories include State Revenues, Federal Reimbursements, and total revenues.
Expense categories include the 12 expense categories as determined by TxDOT, costs
for each of the five major TxDOT operations strategies, TxDOT financing functions, and
costs for new capacity. The final green column provides you with the overall balance
projection (in millions) from 2009-2030. (An example output is provided below)
32
3.6 “Revenue and Expense Statement for the period 2009-2035” Output Window
This view shows the Revenues and Expenses projected from 2009-2030. Revenue
categories include State Revenues, Federal Reimbursements, and total revenues.
Expense categories include the 12 expense categories as determined by TxDOT, costs
for each of the five major TxDOT operations strategies, TxDOT financing functions, and
costs for new capacity. The final green column provides you with the overall balance
projection (in millions) from 2009-2035. (An example output is provided below)
33
3.7 “Statement of Revenue for the local options selected to 2030” Output Window
Depending on the MPO selected in the Local Revenue Options section of the TRENDS
model input, the output will provide you with a local revenue statement from 2010-2030.
Each column provides the fiscal year in which the revenue is earned. Each row shows
revenue earned from each taxing category. These include: Local Option Gasoline Tax
Revenues, Local Option Diesel Tax Revenues, Local Option Vehicle Miles Traveled
(VMT) Fee Revenues, and Local Option Vehicle Registration Revenues. The fifth row is
a total of all these revenues earned for each fiscal year. The last row is a total of all
revenues earned from each taxing category from 2010-2030. (An example comparison
of the Houston/Galveston MPO with Capital Area MPO is provided below)
3.8 “Statement of Revenue for the local options selected to 2035” Output Window
Depending on the MPO selected in the Local Revenue Options section of the TRENDS
model input, the output will provide you with a local revenue statement from 2010-2035.
The columns provide the fiscal year that the revenue is earned. Each row shows
revenue earned from each taxing category. These include: Local Option Gasoline Tax
Revenues, Local Option Diesel Tax Revenues, Local Option Vehicle Miles Traveled
(VMT) Fee Revenues, and Local Option Vehicle Registration Revenues. The fifth row is
a total of all these revenues earned for each fiscal year. The last column is a total of all
revenues earned from each taxing category from 2010-2030. (An example comparing
the Houston/Galveston MPO with Capital Area MPO is provided below)
34
35
APPENDIX A – ESTIMATION OF POPULATION
This model employs four alternative population projection scenarios, titled the 1.0, 0.5
and 04 scenario. The 1.0 scenario assumes that population migration rates are equal to
those experienced in Texas from 1990 to 2000. The 0.5 Scenario assumes population
migration rates one-half the rates experienced from 1990 to 2000. The 04 Scenario
assumes migration rates estimated for the period 2000 to 2004. The 07 Scenario
assumes migration rates estimated for the period 2000 to 2007. Under these alternative
assumptions, the 1.0 Scenario produces the largest population, the 0.5 Scenario
produces the smallest future population and the 04 Scenario produces a population that
is roughly a mid-range between the 1.0 and 0.5 Scenarios. Alternative projections of
future Texas population were secured from the Texas State Data Center website at the
following web address: http://txsdc.utsa.edu/.
Details of the results of the alternative population forecasts are presented below.
YEAR
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Alternative Migration Scenarios
0.5
2000-2004 2000-2007
23,614,468 24,178,180 24,383,647
23,971,476 24,637,254 24,873,773
24,330,612 25,105,646 25,373,947
24,692,184 25,583,249 25,883,999
25,056,035 26,070,099 26,403,743
25,421,611 26,565,655 26,932,619
25,788,872 27,069,526 27,470,110
26,156,715 27,581,188 28,015,550
26,525,347 28,100,315 28,568,732
26,894,510 28,626,868 29,129,530
27,264,177 29,160,863 29,697,950
27,634,735 29,702,803 30,274,269
28,005,788 30,252,539 30,858,449
28,379,252 30,812,396 31,452,815
28,755,425 31,382,834 32,057,766
29,133,913 31,963,803 32,673,327
29,514,739 32,555,481 33,299,749
29,897,443 33,158,042 33,936,986
30,281,749 33,771,203 34,584,918
30,667,562 34,395,189 35,243,768
31,054,431 35,029,972 35,913,396
31,442,217 35,675,768 36,593,880
31,830,589 36,332,880 37,285,486
32,220,722 37,002,633 37,989,546
32,611,793 37,684,240 38,705,621
33,003,541 38,377,918 39,433,732
33,396,336 39,084,191 40,174,225
33,789,668 39,802,939 40,927,000
1.0
24,902,639
25,473,256
26,058,565
26,659,084
27,275,196
27,906,499
28,553,097
29,213,801
29,889,143
30,578,924
31,283,092
32,002,432
32,736,693
33,488,562
34,258,696
35,047,393
35,855,249
36,682,163
37,528,722
38,395,221
39,281,924
40,189,363
41,117,624
42,068,727
43,042,653
44,039,653
45,060,720
46,105,933
36
Year
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
Low MPG Scenario
High MPG Scenario
Average MPG
Scenario
Personal Commercial
Vehicles
Vehicles
18.3657
6.0057
19.0761
6.0183
19.8017
6.0322
20.5429
6.0476
21.3000
6.0647
22.0687
6.0882
22.4190
6.1089
22.7793
6.1311
23.1505
6.1548
23.5334
6.1802
23.9288
6.2075
24.3378
6.2368
24.7616
6.2684
25.2014
6.3026
25.6587
6.3395
26.1351
6.3796
26.6324
6.4230
27.1529
6.4704
27.6988
6.5220
28.2728
6.5784
28.8782
6.6401
29.5184
6.7079
30.1977
6.7825
30.9207
6.8648
31.6932
6.9559
32.5129
7.0548
33.3782
7.1608
34.2879
7.2734
35.2408
7.3921
36.2366
7.5164
37.2746
7.6460
38.3547
7.7806
39.4771
7.9199
40.6417
8.0638
41.8490
8.2122
Personal Commercial
Vehicles
Vehicles
18.3657
6.0057
19.0857
6.0192
19.8412
6.0357
20.6534
6.0570
21.5627
6.0864
22.5354
6.1338
23.1374
6.1749
23.7531
6.2203
24.4243
6.2706
25.1604
6.3264
25.9733
6.3885
26.8773
6.4579
27.8910
6.5356
29.0376
6.6230
30.3475
6.7216
31.8604
6.8334
33.6301
6.9605
35.7302
7.1059
38.2651
7.2732
41.3873
7.4667
44.9660
7.6704
49.1075
7.8851
53.9533
8.1117
59.6970
8.3513
66.6102
8.6049
71.2729
8.8669
75.5492
9.1370
79.3267
9.4153
82.4998
9.7020
84.9748
9.9975
86.6742
10.3021
87.9744
10.6159
88.8541
10.9392
89.6982
11.2724
90.5459
11.6157
Personal Commercial
Vehicles
Vehicles
18.3657
6.0057
19.0809
6.0188
19.8215
6.0340
20.5981
6.0523
21.4313
6.0755
22.3021
6.1110
22.7782
6.1419
23.2662
6.1757
23.7874
6.2127
24.3469
6.2533
24.9510
6.2980
25.6076
6.3474
26.3263
6.4020
27.1195
6.4628
28.0031
6.5306
28.9977
6.6065
30.1313
6.6918
31.4415
6.7882
32.9819
6.8976
34.8300
7.0225
36.9221
7.1553
39.3129
7.2965
42.0755
7.4471
45.3088
7.6080
49.1517
7.7804
51.8929
7.9608
54.4637
8.1489
56.8073
8.3443
58.8703
8.5471
60.6057
8.7570
61.9744
8.9740
63.1646
9.1982
64.1656
9.4296
65.1700
9.6681
66.1974
9.9140
37
APPENDIX B – COMMERCIAL & PERSONAL VEHICLES
This model employs the use of personal and commercial vehicle fuel efficiency
averages when determining fuel efficiency factors as well as vehicle registration. The
amount of revenue earned from commercial and personal vehicles is fairly easy to
differentiate because 98 percent of commercial vehicles burn diesel fuel and 97 percent
of personal vehicles burn gasoline.
According to the Texas Transportation Code Section 501.241, a commercial motor
vehicle is defined as:





A vehicle (or combination of vehicles) with a gross weight, registered weight, or
gross weight rating exceeding 26,000 pounds, that is designed or used for
transportation of cargo in furtherance of any commercial enterprise
For-hire vehicle used to transport household goods, regardless of gross weight
rating
Vehicle, including a bus, designed or used to transport more than 15 passengers,
including the driver
Vehicle defined by 49 CFR §390.5, owned or controlled by someone domiciled
in, or a citizen of, a country other than the United States
Any other vehicle used in the transport of intrastate or interstate commercial
goods
According to the Texas Transportation Code Section 501.241, a passenger motor
vehicle is defined as:



A passenger car used to transport persons and designed to accommodate 10 or
fewer passengers, including the operator.
A truck, including a pickup truck, panel delivery truck, or carryall truck, that has a
manufacturer's rated carrying capacity of 2,000 pounds or less.
A motor vehicle, other than a tractor, that is equipped with a rider's saddle and
designed to have when propelled not more than three wheels on the ground.