ANNUAL REPORT, 2015-16
Eric J. Miller, Ph.D.
James Vaughan, h.Bsc.
Monika Nasterska, B.A.Sc., M.Eng.CEM
March, 2016
Annual Report 2015-16
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page No.
Table of Contents
Lit of Tables
1
1
1.
INTRODUCTION
2
2.
2015-16 BUDGET & RESOURCES
2
3.
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
3.10
3.11
3.12
3.13
3.14
3.15
3.16
3.17
3.18
3.19
2015-16 PROJECTS & ACTIVITIES
GTAModel V4.0
Multi-Class Auto Assignment
HOV Network Coding Validation
Future Year “Base” Network Development
Updating the TMG 3-Step Freight Model
Truck Route Restrictions in the Base 2012 Network
Surface Transit Speed Updating
Multi-Class, Congested Transit Assignment
XTMF Core 1.1
Improved NWS Destination Choice Models
Active Transportation Mode Choice Modelling
Auto-Passenger Rail Access/Egress Station Choice Model
Economic Impact Analysis Tools
Visualization Tools for Travel Demand Analysis
Student-Based Research Projects
Documentation of Software & Models
TMG Toolbox Improvements
Outreach & Training
Committee Meetings
2
3
4
4
4
5
5
5
5
6
6
6
7
7
7
7
8
8
8
8
4.
SUMMARY OF 2015-16 ACCOMPLISHMENTS
9
REFERENCES
10
LIST OF TABLES
2.1: 2015-16 Expenditures
2.2: 2015-16 Revenues
3.1: 2015-16 Workplan
4.1: TMG Accomplishments 2015-16
2
3
3
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Annual Report 2015-16
1.
INTRODUCTION
This document describes the activities of the Travel Modelling Group (TMG) during its fifth
year of operation, 2015-16 (April 1, 2015 through March 31, 2016).
This past year has been a particularly challenging one for TMG given the significant effort
required to complete the GTAModel V4.0 calibration and validation so that it could be brought
into operational use within the City of Toronto SmartTrack Ridership project. And, as noted in
the next section, TMG also under-went a staff change during the year, which left it temporarily
under-staffed. Despite these challenges, however, we managed to meet all our planned
deliverables to varying degrees, which we feel is excellent performance given the circumstances.
Section 2 describes the budget and resources of the TMG during the reporting period. Section 3
then provides an overview of TMG activities with a comparison to the proposed workplan for the
year. Finally, Section 4 summarizes TMG accomplishments in 2015-16.
2.
2015-16 BUDGET & REVENUES
Tables 2 1 and 2 2 provide the 2015-16 TMG expenditures and revenues, respectively. This
budget supported two full-time technical staff persons. The TMG staff for 2015-16 consisted of:
 One full-time network analyst/modeller. David King held this position until he resigned
as of November 30, 2015 to take a position at Metrolinx. He was replaced by Monika
Nasterska, who took over the position on February 1, 2016. Thus this position was
vacant for two months, which impacted the workplan slightly.
 One full-time software programmer/designer (James Vaughan).
3.
2015-16 PROJECTS & ACTIVITIES
Table 3 1 presents that 2015-16 workplan as approved by the TMG Steering Committee. As
indicated in this figure, the workplan tasks divided into 19 primary tasks. TMG activities in each
of these areas are discussed in the following sub-sections.
Table 2.1: 2015-16 Expenditures
Expenses
Salaries
Supplies, Misc. Expenses
Emme Licence Maintenance
Contingency
Overhead (@40%)
Total Expenses
Amount
$127,112.90
$250.00
$3,000.00
$13,879.95
$57,697.14
$201,940.00
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Annual Report 2015-16
Table 2.2: 2015-16 Revenues
Member Contributions
Metrolinx
MTO
City of Toronto
City of Hamilton
Region of Durham
Region of Halton
Region of Peel
Region of York
City of Mississauga
City of Brampton
Total Member Contributions
Amount
$54,200.00
$27,200.00
$27,200.00
$16,500.00
$16,500.00
$16,500.00
$16,500.00
$16,500.00
$5,420.00
$5,420.00
$201,940.00
University of Toronto In-Kind Contributions
Principal Investigator Time
$45,000.00
Office Space & telephones
$6,194.26
Total
$51,194.26
This excludes many other in-kind contributions by UofT to TMG that are very difficult to quantify. These include:
Data Management Group support of TMG
Internet access
University of Toronto library access
Administrative support
TMG computers & software
Table 3.1: 2015-16 Workplan
TMG 2015-16 Work Plan
MONTH
TASK
Apr
May
1. GTAModel V4.0 on-going validation & application
2. Multi-class auto assignment
3. HOV network coding validation
4. Future year base network DBMS
5. Updating current TMG 3-step freight model
6. Truck route restrictions added to base network
7. Surface transit speed updating
8. Multi-class, congested, transit assignment
9. XTMF Core 1.1 finalization, implementation & documentation
10. Improved NWS destination choice models
11. Improved active transportation mode choice model
12. Auto-passenger rail access/egress station choice model
13. Economic impact analysis tools & documentation
14. Visualization tools for travel demand analysis & documentation
15. Student-based research projects
16. Documentation of Software & Models
17. TMG Toolbox Improvements
18. Outreach & Training (3 workshops)
19. Meetings: TMGSC (2) & TMGTAC (5)
TAC
June
July
W1
TAC
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
W2
TAC
SC
TAC
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
TAC
SC
W3
3.1
GTAModel V4.0
The single greatest TMG accomplishment during the 2015-16 year was the completion of the
calibration and validation of GTAModel V4.0 and the introduction of this travel demand model
system into operational practice within both the City of Toronto and the City of Mississauga.
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Annual Report 2015-16
This work was expedited by project support from the City of Toronto outside of the regular TMG
budget, which was reduced on a one-time basis to reflect the “buy-out” of TMG staff to work on
this accelerated model development project. GTAModel V4.0 has been peer reviewed by an
international panel of experts. It is fully documented (see the TMG web site) and is available for
use by any member agency wishing to make use of it.
GTAModel V4.0 is a fully agent-based microsimulation model of GTHA activity and travel. It
is activity-based, tour-based and household-based. It is currently the only 24-hour travel demand
modelling system operational for the GTHA. It incorporates many novel features, with a
particular emphasis on state-of-the-art transit assignment modelling. It provides a
comprehensive, operational base for GTHA model component development and testing. It is
also available for operational use by any member agency wishing to adopt it as their model
system. It is open source software available for download from GitHub under the GPLv3
licence.
3.2
Multi-Class Auto Assignment
Emme’s multi-class auto assignment procedure was tested and an XTMF module was developed
to facilitate its use. This work positions TMG or others to test the incorporation of multi-class
auto assignment in future auto assignment models within regional travel demand model systems.
This is an essential element for incorporation of either HOV or truck assignments within a travel
demand model system.
3.3
HOV Network Coding Validation
The coding of HOV lanes in the 2012 base network was validated and testing of current road
assignment procedures was undertaken to ensure that HOV is being properly modelled within the
current base networks. Long term use of the HOV lanes will require an adjustment to the NCS11
standard, as assignment of single occupancy vehicles to the mode ‘c’ cannot be done if HOV
lanes are to be used as intended. Instead, SOV will need to be assigned a different mode, and
HOV will be further assigned a different mode. No demand, from either SOV or HOV can be
assigned to mode ‘c’. Further documentation can be found in Rosenfield (2015). This task is an
essential first step towards developing improved models of HOV travel demand.
3.4
Future Year “Base” Network Development
The intention of this task was to develop a “repository” or network “database management
system” for storing and documenting alternative components (e.g., proposed transit lines or
highways) that might be included in future year network scenarios. After considerable
investigation of this idea, it became clear that this was overly ambitious in scope, with no clear
method for actual implementation within Emme. It had been hoped that a solution for this would
come out of the SmartTrack project work, but the solution adopted in the end was simply to
construct a “master” network of all transit lines under consideration within the project and then
“turn off/on” individual lines (essentially by “zeroing out” their frequencies) as needed in a given
network scenario. This does not represent a useful general solution for the general GTHA
“repository” problem.
It is now proposed that this work be carried forward into the 2016-17 workplan in a much less
ambitious manner involving simply trying to construct an agreed-upon “base” network of
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Annual Report 2015-16
approved/committed road and transit upgrades for the 2031 forecast year. If this can be
successfully accomplished then this work could extend to doing the same thing for 2041. It
should be stressed that this task will require the active cooperation of member agencies to share
plans with one another.
3.5
Updating the TMG 3-Step Freight Model
It has always been the intention of TMG to deal with freight (urban goods movement) modelling
in addition to person trip-making. Prior to 2015, resource constraints did not permit this issue to
be addressed. In this year’s work we took the first step in addressing this discrepancy by
implementing a rudimentary 3-step urban freight model within XTMF (and, as required, the
TMG Emme Toolbox). This model consists of a simplified GTA freight model developed by
Prof. Roorda that is similar to the current GGH Model freight model component. This first
freight model implementation provides a simple freight forecasting capability for any agency
who wishes to use it. It also provides the basis for the development of improved freight
modelling components in future years’ work.
3.6
Truck Route Restrictions in the Base 2012 Network
As a precursor to the development of improved freight models for the region, the truck route
restrictions coded into the base 2012 network were reviewed and updated. All truck route
restrictions for the region have been verified and are considered up to date.
3.7
Surface Transit Speed Updating
An important element of transit assignment modelling that TMG has not previously addressed
(and, arguably, has been underdeveloped generally within regional demand models) is the
updating of surface transit speeds as a function of roadway congestion. This is potentially a
quite important feature in the correct determination of surface transit travel times, which, in turn,
can affect the quality of both transit route choice and overall model choice. In particular, failure
to account for shared right-of-way (SROW) congestion effects on transit speed and times may
bias model assignments in favour of SROW routes relative to exclusive right-of-way (EROW)
routes.
As a first step towards developing improved surface transit speed updating procedures for the
GTHA a literature review of the topic was conducted. The combination of time over-runs on the
GTAModel V4.0 validation work and the loss of our Network Modeller for two months resulted
in TMG not being able to undertake a serious testing program of alternative surface transit speed
updating procedures. This is a non-trivial task, since updating of transit speeds will feedback
through mode choice calculations as well as transit route assignment, potentially leading to
model system instabilities if not carefully modelled. TMG sees this as a substantial R&D project
that requires sufficient time and resources to be usefully addressed. Therefore, it has been
carried forward to the 2016-17 workplan, within which these resources can be appropriately
allocated.
3.8
Multi-Class, Congested Transit Assignment
Considerable experience was gained over the past year during the GTAModel V4.0 calibration
and validation process with respect to congested transit assignment modelling. It is very clear
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Annual Report 2015-16
that transit route choice is sensitive to onboard congestion effects, and careful calibration of the
congested transit assignment model was required to get optimal model results.
Implementation of a multi-class assignment procedure is also clearly important, particularly in a
fare-based transit assignment procedure such as has been implemented in GTAModel V4.0.
That is, different classes of transit users (worker by occupation type, students, etc.) can be
expected to have different values of time and, hence, evaluate the fares paid on different transit
routes/services differently. Emme now supports a multi-class version of congested transit
assignment. In this year’s work we have begun the process of testing this procedure for possible
use within the GTHA. The work undertaken to date involves accumulating the data required to
test multi-class transit assignment from the 2011 TTS database, construction of a multi-class,
congested transit assignment within the TMG Emme Toolbox and XTMF, and preliminary
multi-class assignments using current GTAModel V4.0 mode choice model values of time to
both test the assignment module and to get a preliminary sense of the performance of the multiclass assignment procedure. This work will continue into the 2016-17 work year.
3.9
XTMF Core 1.1
Since TMG’s inception, XTMF has undergone continuing development, refining and
restructuring to improve its efficiency, flexibility and to ensure that future improvements can be
implemented far faster, with greater confidence, and superior maintainability. XTMF Core 1.1
was fully implemented into operational practice during the past year, providing an advanced
software environment for travel demand model system and modelling tool development and
applications. It is fully documented on the TMG web site. It is open source software available
for download from GitHub under the GPLv3 licence.
3.10 Improved NWS Destination Choice Models
The question of non-work/school (NWS) destination choice models continues to be investigated
by UofT graduate student researchers but has not yet lead to implementable new models. In the
GTAModel V4.0 development and validation work the issue of NWS destination choice received
considerable attention. A logit NWS destination choice model has been developed and
implemented with the model system. This is a “prism-based” procedure, in which the choice set
for a given NWS trip is defined based on traffic zones that can be feasibly accessed given the
locations of the activity episodes occurring immediately prior to and after the given NWS
activity episode being scheduled, as well as the expected duration of this episode.
3.11 Active Transportation Mode Choice Modelling
Similarly, active transportation (walking and biking) has received very little attention to date
within TMG activities. Active transportation modes are explicitly included in the various
GTAModel implementations undertaken by TMG to date (the Durham Model and GTAModel
V2.0 conversions and GTAModel V4.0), but it is recognized that active transportation is not well
modelled in these implementations.
Considerable graduate-student-based work is currently underway within the University of
Toronto investigating various aspects of active transportation modelling. In particular, the
MASc thesis by Yunfei Zhang developed a set of GIS-based land use measures (e.g., land use
mix) and active transportation network measures (sidewalks, bicycle lanes, etc.) and re-estimated
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Annual Report 2015-16
the GTAModel V4.0 mode choice model with these new variables included in walk and bicycle
utility functions. The results obtained were encouraging, although they did not result in dramatic
increases in overall model fit (Zhang, 2015). Further research is required, building on Zhang’s
work before significantly improved models of walk and bicycle mode choice are likely to able to
be included in large regional travel demand models such as GTAModel. In particular,
operational models of bicycle and pedestrian route choice appear to be required in order to
generate improved modal utility function variables. Graduate theses investigating both of these
topics are currently underway.
3.12 Auto-Passenger Rail Access/Egress Station Choice Model
GTAModel V4.0 has a novel tour-based model of auto-drive access/egress to/from transit
stations (park & ride). It does not, however, model auto-passenger access/egress transit choice
model. TMG has developed a prototype auto-passenger transit access/egress model, which will
continue to be tested for eventual implementation in a “V4.1” model system.
3.13 Economic Impact Analysis Tools
Modules to extract a large number of performance measures from travel demand model system
runs were developed as part of the City of Toronto SmartTrack project. These include
accessibility measures, travel times by mode, transit ridership by line, transit station boardings
and alightings, screenline counts, VKT, daily transit revenues by transit agency, etc. A
transportation GHG emissions module was also developed as a student-based project (Nikolov,
2014). A formal benefit-cost evaluation tool was not constructed as part of the study, but most
of the elements needed to develop such a tool are now in place.
3.14 Visualization Tools for Travel Demand Analysis
A very important class of analysis and display tools (both for model output and base data
analysis and display) are various methods of data visualization. These range from routine graphs
and plots to complex mapping of network (link/node), zonal and O-D (flows, times, etc.) data.
Numerous visualization tools were developed during the City of Toronto SmartTrack project. In
developing these tools emphasis was placed on using the visualization capabilities within Emme,
both for network-based displays and mapping through the interface to ArcGIS. These tools have
been added to the TMG Emme Toolbox.
3.15 Student-Based Research Projects
TMG support student-based research through providing access to:
 The Emme software system.
 Base Emme networks.
 XTMF, GTAModel V4.0 and TMG Toolbox.
 TTS data.
TMG staff also provides guidance and assistance to students with respect to their own coding of
Emme models, etc. and their analysis and modelling research tasks.
At the TMGTAC meeting on November 4, 2015, TMG reported on six student projects of
potential interest to our member agencies that had been supported by TMG in a variety of ways
and that might provide inputs into future TMG R&D activities. These are:
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Annual Report 2015-16






Yunfei Zhang (MASc thesis): Active Transportation Mode Choice Modelling
Trajce Nikolov (BASc thesis): Emissions Modelling
Adam Rosenfield (BASc thesis): HOV Modelling
Luna Xi (Undergraduate summer research project): Subway Station Catchment Areas
Kathryn Grond (MASc thesis): Bike Route Choice Modelling
Qingyi Wang; Leo Chen; He He (Wang, undergraduate summer research project; Chen &
He, BASc theses): School Trip Modelling
3.16 Documentation of Software & Models
Up-to-date documentation of GTAModel V4.0, along with all new XTMF and EMME Toolbox
modules created as part of the V4.0 development work is available on the TMG web site.
3.17 TMG Toolbox Improvements
A primary rationale for the TMG is to develop standard tools, procedures and templates for
general use by member agencies. These tools are primarily of two types: XTMF-based modules
and Emme/4 Modeller procedures. Tool development occurs in two primary ways. First, TMG
staff constantly refine/extend existing tools and develop new tools through the course of their ongoing model system development, network coding and testing and other work tasks. Second,
recommendations for tool development are regularly generated by the TMGTAC on an on-going
basis.
3.18 Outreach & Training
A critical component of TMG activities in all phases of its work must be training, technology
transfer and outreach. In order to succeed, TMG must be responsive to its collaborating
partners’ needs. It must also get the tools that it is developing into the hands of its partners for
their use. The TMG’s role is intended to be one of tool developer, not to be the user of these
tools on behalf of its partners in operational applications (except perhaps in special cases). 201516 activities in this area included:
 On-going updating and elaboration of the TMG web site.
 Documentation of all procedures, etc. developed by the TMG.
 Five meetings were held with TMGTAC to discuss work in progress, next steps in the
workplan and to disseminate workplan results.
 Two training sessions/workshop were held, both dealing with GTAModel V4.0:
o October 7/15: “Introduction to GTAModel V4.0”
o January 27/16: “Calibration of GTAModel V4.0 Through XTMF”.
Both workshops were open to local consultants as well as TMG member agencies.
3.19 Committee Meetings
In addition to the TMGTAC meetings discussed in Section 3.18, one meeting with the TMG
Steering Committee was held to discuss workplan progress, budget, overall TMG directions for
work and other administrative and supervisory matters.
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Annual Report 2015-16
4.
SUMMARY OF 2015-16 ACCOMPLISHMENTS
Table 4 1 summarizes the key accomplishments by the TMG during 2015-16.
Table 4.1: TMG Accomplishments 2015-16
Task Deliverable
1 GTAModel V4.0 fully operational, validated & documented
2 Multi-class auto assignment module developed, tested & documented
3 Validated base 2012 HOV network coding; NCS11 updated (as needed)
4 Future year base network DBMS implemented & documented; user manual prepared
5 Updated TMG 3-step freight model tested & documented
6 Truck route restrictions added to 2012 base network; NCS11 updated (as needed)
7 Surface transit speed updating procedure developed, tested, documented
8 Multi-class, congested, transit assignment preliminary tests
9 XTMF Core 1.1 finished, tested, documented
10 Improved NWS destination choice models developed, tested, documented
11 Prototype active transportation mode choice model developed, tested, documented
12 Auto-passenger rail access/egress station choice model developed, tested, documented
13 Economic impact analysis modules developed, tested, documented
14 Visualization tools for travel demand analysis developed, tested, documented
15 Student-based research project reports
16 Documentation of Software & Models
17 TDM Toolbox improvements with documentation
18 Outreach & Training
19 Meetings
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Date
December 15, 2015
June 30, 2015
June 30, 2015
Sept. 30, 2015
Sept. 30, 2015
Sept. 30, 2015
Deferred to 2016-17
March 31, 2016
September 30, 2015
December 31, 2015
December 31, 2015
March 31, 2016
December 31, 2015
December 31, 2015
November 30, 2015
On-going
On-going
Various dates
Various dates
Annual Report 2015-16
REFERENCES
Nikolov, T. (2014) A Greenhouse Gas Emissions Model for GTAModel V4, BASc thesis,
Toronto: Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto.
Rosenfield, A. (2015) High Occupancy Vehicle Lanes and Social Welfare: Insights through
Activity-Based Microsimulation, BASc thesis, Toronto: Department of Civil Engineering,
University of Toronto.
Zhang, Y. (2015) Microsimulating Active Transportation Mode Choice Using
Smartphone0Based Travel Survey and Transportation Tomorrow Survey Data, MASc thesis,
Toronto: Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto.
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