cinve
Centro de Investigaciones Económicas
Latin American Research Network
The Elasticity of Substitution in Demand
for Non-tradable Goods in Latin America
Registration Form
1.
Name of institution: Centro de Investigaciones Económicas (CINVE – Uruguay)
2.
Name of the participants:
• Project Director: Fernando Lorenzo
• Researcher 1:
Diego Aboal
• Researcher 2:
Rosa Osimani
3.
Name, title, phone number and e-mail of the person responsible for signing the
letter of agreement
with the Bank:
• Name:Fernando Lorenzo
• Title: Director de CINVE
• Phone Number: 598 2 900 3051
• Fax: 598 2 908 4743
• E-mail: [email protected]
4.
Does the proposal include…? (Please check in the appropriate space):
Description of the Data to be used in the study [maximum 3 pages] X
Demonstration of the data availability for different methodologies (see section III)
[maximum 2 pages] X
Detail Description of the proposed empirical methodology [4-5 pages].X
Previous studies available in the country on similar topics [1 page] X
CVs of the research team, emphasizing previous relevant experience [maximum 2
pages per researcher]. X
A budget (on a separate annex) indicating the time and resources that will be used
within the context of a research work plan. X
18 de julio 1324 piso 6
11100 Montevideo, Uruguay
Teléfonos: (598 2) 900 30 51 ; 908 1 5 33
Fax: (598 2) 908 47 43; E-Mail: [email protected]
cinve
Centro de Investigaciones Económicas
PLEASE EMAIL ALL REQUESTED INFORMATION TO [email protected]
The Elasticity of Substitution in Demand for
Non-tradable goods: the case of Uruguay
Proposal for the Inter-American Development Bank
Centro de Investigaciones Económicas (cinve - Uruguay)
Fernando Lorenzo (Research Coordinator)
Diego Aboal
Rosa Osimani
18 de julio 1324 piso 6
11100 Montevideo, Uruguay
Teléfonos: (598 2) 900 30 51 ; 908 1 5 33
Fax: (598 2) 908 47 43; E-Mail: [email protected]
cinve
Centro de Investigaciones Económicas
Montevideo, May 2003
18 de julio 1324 piso 6
11100 Montevideo, Uruguay
Teléfonos: (598 2) 900 30 51 ; 908 1 5 33
Fax: (598 2) 908 47 43; E-Mail: [email protected]
cinve
I.
Justification of the study for Uruguay
Why Uruguay? The most obvious reason is that Uruguay has enough data. This allows
producing the three different measures of the variables proposed in the terms of reference.
In the second place, the researchers at cinve have a great experience in related topics. In
particular, the estimation of price indexes of tradable and non-tradable goods from the
breakdown of the consumer price index has been done for the period 1986.1-2002.1 (Aboal,
2003).
Graph 1. Real Exchange Rate (RER=PT/PN).
110
100
90
80
70
60
Ene-87
Jul-87
Ene-88
Jul-88
Ene-89
Jul-89
Ene-90
Jul-90
Ene-91
Jul-91
Ene-92
Jul-92
Ene-93
Jul-93
Ene-94
Jul-94
Ene-95
Jul-95
Ene-96
Jul-96
Ene-97
Jul-97
Ene-98
Jul-98
Ene-99
Jul-99
Ene-00
Jul-00
Ene-01
Jul-01
Ene-02
50
Source: Aboal (2003).
In the third place, and related with the last argument, the proof of the non constancy of the
RER in Uruguay through most of the period that this research intends to analyze (1983.12002.4). This makes Uruguay an interesting case to observe the counterpart (or the effects)
of this evolution on the ratio of consumption of non-tradable and tradable goods.
Finally, the macrodevaluation of the Uruguayan peso in the second quarter of 2002 and the
associated important change in relative prices is a very interesting episode to analyze the
predictive properties of the econometric model and the robustness of the inference. In other
words, it is an interesting test to the hypothesis of constancy of the elasticity of substitution
in a very demanding environment.
1
cinve
II.
Objectives
This project has two basic objectives. The first one is to create a database in line with the
parameters established in the terms of reference of the project. The second objective is the
estimation of the elasticity of substitution of non-tradable goods, with especial attention to
empirical problems related to time-varying parameters, endogeneity, missing regressors and
model misspecification.
III.
Description of the data to be used in the study
The methodologies to be used require a huge set of data. Therefore, the adequate gathering
and organization of the necessary information is an important step in the research. In this
part of the proposal the National statistics are presented and described.
The period that will be considered in the econometric estimation is 1983-2002, which is
considered appropriate, given the specific evolution of the Uruguayan economy.
Additionally, national accounts were completely revised from 1983 onwards, and the series
since then are not compatible with the previous years. Quarterly data for all the variables
will be used in order to have a sufficiently large number of observations.
i)
National Accounts Statistics
The National Accounts statistics are carried out by the Banco Central del Uruguay (BCU)
and are available in the Statistical Bulletin with a quarterly and annual frequency. The base
year for the series at constant prices is 1983. The main characteristics of the information set
are presented in Tables 1 through 3. The decomposition of GDP by sectors is consistent
with the requirements of the project.
2
cinve
Table 1. National accounts data
Data
Coverage
Annual Frequency
National Income, Savings
and Investment
Final Demand and Supply
Investment by institutional
sector and type of goods
GDP by sector
Gross production by sector
Quarterly Frequency
National Income, Savings
and Investment
Final Demand and Supply
Periods Current
prices
1955-2002 48
Yes
Yes
BCU
1955-2002 48
1983-2002 20
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
BCU
BCU
1983-2002 20
1983-2002 20
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
BCU
BCU
1983-2002 80
Since
2001
Since
2001
Since
2001
Since
2001
----
Yes
BCU
Yes
BCU
Yes
BCU
Yes
BCU
Yes
BCU
1983-2002 80
Investment by institutional 1983-2002 80
sector and type of goods
GDP by sector
1983-2002 80
Production quantity index 1983-2002 80
by sector
ii)
Constant Source
prices
Price Indexes
In order to elaborate quarterly price indexes for each sector, the following price indexes are
available (Tables 2 and 3) and will be used:
Table 2. Price Indexes
General Indexes:
Producer price index of domestic goods IPPN
Wholesale price index of domestic goods IPM
Consumer price index IPC
Import CIF price index IPIM
Export FOB price index IPE
Domestic price index of imports
Average wage index (private and public) IMS
3
Coverage
1983-2002
1983-2002
1983-2002
1994-2002
1994-2002
1983-2002
1983-2002
Frequency
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Quarterly
Quarterly
Monthly
Monthly
Source
INE
INE
INE
BCU
BCU
INE
INE
cinve
Table 3. Specific price indexes to be used for creating sectoral price series
Breakdown that will be used
To
create
Original
price series
Aggregate
for sector:
Index
IPM
Crops price index
A
IPM
Livestock price index
A
IPM
Domestic agricultural products price index
A
IPM
Aggregate price index of fishing products and services
A
IPM
Mining and quarrying price index
M
IPM
Manufacturing products price index
MF
IPM
Manufacturing products (excluding fuels) price index
MF
IPM
Fuels domestic price index
MF
IPC
Electricity price index (residential and non residential)
U
IPC
Gas price index
U
IPC
Water price index
U
IPC
Telephone price index
U
IPCT
Construction cost index
C
IPMO
Labor cost index
C
IPC
Restaurants price index
S
IPC
Bus ticket (local) price index
S
IPC
Bus ticket (suburban) price index
S
IPC
Bus ticket (long distance) price index
S
IPC
Taxis price index
S
Freight price index
S
IPC
Rented housing price index
S
IPC
Education price index
S
IPC
Health care price index
S
IPC
Home services price index
S
Note: Sectors of economic activity: Agriculture (A), Mining (M), Construction (C), Manufacturing (MF),
Utilities (U), Services (S).
iii)
Trade flows
Merchandise trade flows data are available by sector on a quarterly basis. In the case of
trade in services, the data available is contained in the Balance of Payments elaborated by
the BCU, on a quarterly basis. In both cases, the coverage is for the whole period.
IV. Data availability and creation of needed series for different methodologies
The variables that will be used for the econometric estimation of the substitution elasticity
are as follows: private consumption of tradables (CT) and non tradables (CN), at constant
and current prices, implicit deflator of tradables consumption (PT) and implicit deflator of
non tradables consumption (PN).
4
cinve
The available data allows the construction of the series by the three methods described in
the terms of reference, with different degrees of difficulty. In what follows, the procedures
for obtaining the series required for each of the three methods are presented.
IV.1
National Accounts procedure
In the first method, based on the data from National Accounts, the nine sectors must be
classified in tradables and non tradables. With that purpose, the ratios of total trade to gross
output will be considered for each sector.
As the final objective of this classification is the elaboration of the variables for the
econometric model, it is not convenient that the sectors change from one group to the other
in different years.1 Therefore, weighted averages of the numerator and denominator values
through the period under study will be considered. Then the sectors will be ranked,
classifying them in tradable when TTYi is > z. The three different thresholds suggested will
be used (z= 0,01; z = 0,05; z= 0,1; with a larger z value meaning a higher requirement for
being classified as tradable). The resulting classifications will be compared in order to
choose the one that is more representative of the differences between tradables and non
tradables.
The next step consist of the estimation of consumption for tradable and non tradable
sectors. The data only allows the estimation of apparent consumption (or availability) as a
proxy for private consumption:
Ci = Yi + IMi – Xi
As it was said above, in the case of Uruguay, the series of gross production for each sector
at current prices are available for the whole period with an annual frequency. It is necessary
to create the series with a quarterly frequency and at constant prices. In order to create a
constant price series for gross production by sector, the quarterly quantity index for each
sector will be applied to the base year values.
The annual data for gross production at current prices will be used to obtain the quarterly
series at current prices. The interpolation by regression method suggested by Chow and Lin
(1971) will be used.2
1
In the case of manufacturing, previous studies carried out at CINVE indicate that most non-tradable
manufacturing sectors became tradables by the end of the nineties. In manufacturing “a very few sectors
remain in the Low Trade Group, due to the effect of the opening and integration process” (Osimani and
Laens, 2000).
2
An alternative method is to create the quarterly series starting from the constant price series, by applying the
appropriate price index for each sector. To create the proper price index for each sector the variation of a
weighted average of the price of the main products in each sector will be considered. This estimation implies
the use of the price indexes described above. This procedure is similar to the one used by the BCU to estimate
the quarterly implicit price index of GDP by sector since 2001 (BCU, IPIT). The result will then be checked
against the annual gross production data at current prices.
5
cinve
In the case of imports and exports, the data from National Accounts is not available by
sector, so this source must be complemented with quarterly data from foreign trade
statistics. To create the merchandise export series at current prices for each sector, the
foreign trade statistics will be converted to local currency using the average exchange rate
for each quarter. In the case of merchandise imports, the same conversion will be done and
an “internalization” margin will be added (including tariffs and other duties). The BCU has
information on this margin obtained through a survey to importers.
For trade in services, it is necessary to use Balance of Payments data elaborated by the
BCU. The disaggregation of the data is quite insufficient: i) transportation, ii) travel and iii)
other services. To decompose these aggregates according to the sectors needed, the
assumptions and methodology used before at CINVE to update the input-output table will
be used (CINVE, 1999). The average exchange rate for each quarter will be used to convert
these data into local currency.
The merchandise trade series at constant prices will be obtained by deflating the current
dollar price series with the specific export or import price index for each sector. To build
this index a weighted average of the main exported or imported goods will be considered.
Then the series in constant dollars will be converted into local currency using the exchange
rate of the base year. For trade in services there are no specific price indexes, so the global
import or export price index for merchandise trade will be used to deflate the current price
series.
IV.2
Simplified National Accounts or Expenditure Survey Procedure
i. Service consumption series
From the National Accounts procedure described in the previous section we obtain the
estimation of this series.
ii. Durable goods consumption series
An estimate of durable goods consumption series (imported and domestically produced) is
available from Kamil and Lorenzo (1998) for the period 1975.1-1993.4.
In the case of imported durable goods consumption the updating of the series will used the
data for durable goods imports at current dollar prices and the import price index available
from the BCU for the period 1994-2002 on a quarterly basis.
In the case of domestic produced durable goods the series can be updated with the same
methodology used by Kamil and Lorenzo, which is briefly summarized in Box 1.
6
cinve
Box 1. Creation of series of indicators of domestic durable goods consumption
Following the classification of the National Accounting System, the activities that generate
durable goods were identified: 3832, 3833, 3843, 3844 and 3320 (Furniture and accesories
industries). Using the updated Input-Output Table, the share of those industries destined to
domestic consumption was determined. This share was applied to the gross production data
of those industries in the base year. Then, the constant price series of consumption was
created, averaging the quantity indexes for each industry using the gross production in the
base year as weights.
The gross production series at current prices for those industries are available from the
Manufacturing Survey carried out by the INE. The same ratio of domestic consumption to
gross production will be applied. Then, the annual data will be disaggregated in quarterly
series using the method of Chow and Lin (1971).
IV.3
CPI procedure
We will breakdown the CPI into tradable and non-tradable, taking into account the series
and its weights that come from the National Institute of Statistics (INE) and the
methodology presented in Cancelo et al. (1995) and Fernández and Lorenzo (2001).
Specifically, the tradable series will include the following components of the CPI:
Food and Beverages, except the meals outside of the home and fresh milk (because
it has an administered price)
Apparel and Footware, except repair services
Funiture and Accesories, except repair and cleaning services and home services
Medicines
Toys and other entertainment goods
Books and other education material
Personal care articles (except hair dresser services), tobacco and cigarettes
The non tradable series will include the following components of the CPI:
Housing (rent, utilities and other services), except construction material
Health and medical care, excluding medicines
Transportation and communications
Entertainment services, except entertainment goods (toys, cassettes, etc.)
Education services, except books and education material
Other services
V. Econometric Methodology
The econometric methodology will be based on the estimation of multivariate time series
models with event specific dummies. Following Hendry (1995), we will pay special attention
in obtaining a congruent unrestricted representation of the data, in order to investigate if the
variables can be modeled in a multivariate linear process (typically a VAR). Often the
inclusion of qualitative intervention variables can easily solve these problems (Box and Tiao
7
cinve
1975). Considering k lags for a vector of n variables xt, h deterministic variables qt and 3
seasonal dummies d, the corresponding multivariate model can be written as:
k
(9) xt = ∑ A j xt − j + Zqt + Sd + ε t , ε t ~ IN n (0, Σ) ,
j =1
where A j is an n × n matrix of autoregressive coefficients, Z is an n × h matrix of coefficients
of the h deterministic variables, S is an n × 3 matrix of coefficients of the 3 seasonal dummies
and εt is a vector of 2 unobserved normally distributed error terms with zero mean and a
constant covariance matrix Σ.
If the variables in the model are non stationary (integrated of order 1), we will investigate the
existence of cointegrating realationships between the set of endogenous variables. In this case
equation (9) can be written as (see Johansen, 1988):
k −1
(10) ∆xt = ∑ Γ j ∆xt − j + αβ ′xt −1 + Zqt + Sd + ε t ,
j =1
where Γ j = −∑i = j +1 Ai , and α and β are n × r matrices of rank r such that
k
αβ ′ = − I N − ∑i =1 Ai .
k
The output of this kind of methodology would be a short and long run elasticity of
substitution and the velocity of convergence from short run to long run equilibrium. Special
tests will be carried out to identify possible structural breakdowns in parametric structure,
and especially the effects of macrodevaluations will be investigated.
These types of models could be simplified in the case of two variables. In this particular
case the VAR model could be represented as an ADL model. We consider the empirical
problem in a more general way because we cannot disregard a priori the possibility of
including other variables in the estimation, for example wealth, if the final theoretical
framework allow it.
The econometric strategy will be especially devoted to test the parametric constancy over
time. The diagnosis of changes in the parametric structure of the models will be evaluated
applying constancy tests (see Brown et al. (1975)). To model time varying parameters we
will follow the methodology proposed by Granger and Lee (1991). This framework has
been applied in the econometric analysis of Uruguayan macroeconomic time series in Noya
et. al (1999) and CINVE (2000).
VI. Previous Studies
In Uruguay we do not have any study that covers exactly the objective of the present
project. As far as we know, the only study that estimates the elasticity of the demand for
tradable and non-tradable goods with respect to RER is Rama (1986b), but he does not
attempt to estimate the elasticity of substitution.
8
cinve
On the other hand we have a series of related studies in which the global price index is
broken down into tradable and non-tradable indexes. Additionally, other studies intend to
classify the production of particular sectors into tradable and non-tradable.
cinve has a long tradition in research works related to the topic that this project addresses.
Researchers of cinve have conducted seven of the nine works listed in Table 4 or at least
have participated in the research.
Table 4. Related Previous Studies in Uruguay
Authors
Relationship with the project
Rama (1986a)
Classifies the industry output into tradable and nontradable.
Rama (1986b)
Estimates the response of tradable and non-tradable goods
demand and supply to various determinants. One of them
was the real exchange rate (RER).
Cancelo et al. (1994)
The decompose the consumer price index (CPI) into
tradable and non-tradable price indexes.
Bergara et al. (1995)
They breakdown CPI into non-tradable, regional tradable
and internationally tradable price indexes.
Echenique (1995)
Investigates the determinants of consumption in Uruguay.
Kamil and Lorenzo (1998) They estimate a series of durable consumption. This series
was disaggregated into imported and domestic durable
consumption.
Noya, Lorenzo and Grau They analyze the determinants of domestic savings in
(1999)
Uruguay.
Fernandez and Lorenzo They make explicit the methodology that cinve used to
(2001)
breakdown the CPI into Tradable and Non-Tradable Price
Indexes with the objective of short run macroeconomic
analysis.
Aboal (2003)
Estimates equilibrium RER using a NATREX theoretical
approach and a VEC empirical model. To construct a
RER series the author updated the series originally
constructed for Cancelo et al. (1994).
9
cinve
VII.
Bibliography
Aboal, D. (2003), Tipo de cambio real de equilibrio en Uruguay: fundamentos e implicaciones
de política, forthcoming in Revista de Economía del Banco Central del Uruguay,
noviembre.
Asea, P.K. and E.G. Mendoza (1994), The Balassa-Samuelson model: a general-equilibrium
appraisal, Review of International Economics, 2(3) 244-267.
BCU (2001), Indice de Precios Implícitos Trimestral del Producto Interno Bruto (IPIT).
Bergara, M.; Dominioni, D. and J. Licandro (1995), Un modelo para comprender la
enfermedad uruguaya. Revista de Economía del Banco Central del Uruguay, Segunda
época, 2(2), noviembre.
Box, G. and G. Tiao (1975), Intervetion analysis with applications to economic ans
environmental problems, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 70:70-79.
Brown, R., J. Durbin and J. Evans (1975), Techniques for testing the constancy of regression
coefficients over time, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 37:149-192.
Calvo, G, A. Izquierdo and E. Talvi (2002), Sudden stops, the real exchange rate and fiscal
sustainability: Argentina’s lessons, Research Department, IADB.
Cancelo, J.R., Fernández, A., Grosskoff, R., Selves, R. y G. Villamonte (1994), Precios de
transables y no transables. Un enfoque ARIMA-IA”, paper presented at IX Jornadas de
Economía del Banco Central del Uruguay.
Chow, G., A. Lin (1971). “Best linear unbiased interpolation, distribution and extrapolation of
time series by related time series.” Review of Economics and Statistics (53).
CINVE (1999). Matriz de insumo producto y contabilidad social para la economía Uruguaya.
Año 1995. Documento Nº3.
CINVE (2000). Comercio, régimen cambiario y volatilidad: la experiencia uruguaya con los
socios del Mercosur. Mimeo.
Dornbusch, R. (1983), “Real interest rates, home goods, and optimal external borrowing,”
Journal of Political Economy, 91:141-53.
Echenique, F. (1995), La teoría del consumo: un análisis empírico de los datos uruguayos,
mimeo, Universidad de la República del Uruguay.
Engel, R. and C. Granger (1987), Cointegration and error correction: representation,
estimation and testing. Econometrica, 55:251-276
Engel, C. and K. Keltzer (1989), “Saving and investment in an open economy with nontraded goods,” International Economic Review, 30:735-52.
Fernandez, A., F. Lorenzo (2001), Aportes metodológicos para el diseño de un informe de
inflación en Uruguay. Paper presented at the Foro de Política Económica y
Objetivos de Inflación, Universidad ORT (Uruguay) and CINVE. (Mimeo).
Granger, C. And H. Lee (1991), An introduction to time-varying parameter cointegration,
in Hackl, P. And A. Westkind, Economic Structural Change: Analysis and
Forecasting, Vandenhoeck Und Ruprecht.
Hendry, D. (1995), Dynamic Econometrics, Oxford.
Johansen, S. (1988), Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors, Journal of Economic
Dynamics and Control, 12: 231-254.
Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in gaussian
vector autoregressive models, Econometrica, 59:1551-1580.
10
cinve
Johansen, S. (1995), Likelihood-based inference in cointegrated vector auto-regressive
models, Oxford Press.
Kamil, H. and F. Lorenzo (1998), Caracterización de las fluctuaciones cíclicas en la
economía uruguaya, Revista de Economía del Banco Central del Uruguay, Segunda
época, 5(1), mayo.
Lim, G. and J. Stein (1997), The dynamics of the real exchange rate and current account in
a small economy: Australia, in Stein, J., P. Allen eds., Fundamental determinants of
exchange rates, Claredon Press, Oxford.
Mendoza, E. (1995), The terms of trade, the real exchange rate and economic fluctuations,
International Economic Review, 36(1):101-37.
Noya, N., F. Lorenzo, C. Grau (1999), Determinats of domestic saving in uruguay, in Carmen
Reinhart (compilation), Accounting for saving, Latin American Research Nerwork,
IADB.
Obstfeld, M. and K. Rogooff (1996), Fundations of international macroeconomics, MIT
Press.
Osimani, R. and Laens, S. (2000), Trade patterns, export performance and intra-industry
trade: the case of Uruguay in the nineties, mimeo, CINVE.
Rama, M. (1986a), Comercializables y no comercializables. Una desagregación sectorial
del producto industrial. Revista Suma 1:138-141.
Rama, M. (1986b), Recesión y reactivación: ¿Problemas de oferta o insuficiencia de
demanda? Revista Suma 1(1):97-128.
Sims, C. (1980). Macroeconomics and reality. Econometrica, 48:1-48.
Stein, J., P. Allen eds. (1997), Fundamental determinants of exchange rates, Claredon
Press, Oxford.
11
cinve
VIII. Research team
The research team will be coordinated by Fernando Lorenzo (Director of CINVE), who will
devote 3 months to the project. He has conducted research in applied macroeconomics
(inflation, growth, fiscal and monetary policies, etc.) and has extensive expertise in
dynamic macroeconometric modelling. Diego Aboal (Researcher 1) and Rosa Osimani
(Researcher 2) will devote also three months each. Diego Aboal has background in
macroeconomics and political economy. Rosa Osimani has experience in research dealing
with microeconomics, industrial analysis and national accounts.
12
cinve
Fernando LORENZO ESTEFAN
Date of birth:
Place of birth:
Office address:
Phones:
Fax:
E-mail:
I.
EDUCATIONAL BACKGROUND
1991-97
1984-85
1978-84
II.
January 31, 1960
Montevideo, Uruguay
Centro de Investigaciones Económicas (CINVE - Uruguay)
18 de Julio 1324. Piso 6, 11100 Montevideo, Uruguay
(598 2) 900 3051
(598 2) 908 4743
[email protected]
Ph. D in Economics, Universidad Carlos III, Madrid, Spain.
D.E.A. (Diplome d'Etudes Approfondies) en Economie et Finances
Internationales. Université de Paris IX - Dauphine. Paris, France.
Economist. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Administración. Universidad
de la República. Montevideo, Uruguay.
Research
Since 1997
Director, Centro de Investigaciones Económicas (CINVE), Montevideo,
Uruguay.
Since 1995
Senior Researcher at CINVE, with participation in the following research
projects (selected):
2002-2003
“Monetary regimes for an open dollarized small economy”, supported by the
CSIC, Universidad de la República, Uruguay (with Diego Aboal).
2002-2003
“Macroeconomic Coordination in Mercosur”, MERCOSUR: Economic
Research and Integration. Phase II. Supported by the International Development
Research Centre (IDRC - Canada). Mercosur Research Network. Head researcher.
2002-2003
“The Mercosur and the Creation of the Free Trade Area of the Americas”,
Mercosur Research Network. Supported by the Tinker Foundation (New York). Head
researcher with Marcel Vaillant.
1999-2000
“Trade, the exchange rate regime and volatility. Macroeconomic policy
coordination in the Mercosur.” Mercosur Research Network. Supported by IDRC.
Head researcher.
1998-99
“Impact of trade opening of MERCOSUR on the Uruguayan Labor Market”.
Programa de Fortalecimiento del Área Social (FAS). Head Researcher.
1997-98
“Finance, competitiveness and changing trade patterns”. Supported by IDRC.
1996 "Determinants of savings in Latin America: the Uruguayan case". IV Round of IADB
Research Centers Network.
1993-1996
Member of the research team of the Laboratory of Prediction and
Macroeconomic Analysis, Universidad Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
13
cinve
III.
PUBLISHED WORK (selected)
2003 “La inflación como objetivo en Uruguay. Consideraciones sobre los mecanismos de
transmisión de la política monetaria y cambiaria”. Revista de Economía, BCU (with
D. Aboal and N. Noya). Forthcoming.
2002 “Tipos de cambio reales bilaterales y volatilidad: La experiencia uruguaya con los
socios del Mercosur”, in Fanelli, J.M. (Comp.) Coordinación de políticas
macroeconómicas en el MERCOSUR, Madrid, Siglo XXI - Argentina Editores and
Mercosur Research Network (joint with N. Noya and C. Daude)
2001 “Aportes metodológicos para el diseño de un informe de inflación en Uruguay”.
Paper presented at the Foro de Política Económica y Objetivos de Inflación,
Universidad ORT (Uruguay) and CINVE. (Mimeo). (joint with A. Fernández)
2001 “Decentralization and Fiscal Discipline in Subnational Governments: The Bailout
Problem. The Case of Uruguay”, Working Paper CINVE (with F. Filgueira, A. Rius, J.
A. Moraes, and H. Kamil)
2000 “Tipos de cambio reales bilaterales y volatilidad: La experiencia uruguaya con los
socios del Mercosur”, XV Jornadas de Economía del BCU (with N. Noya and C.
Daude)
1999 “Determinants of Domestic Savings in Uruguay”, in Carmen Reinhardt (comp.)
Accounting for Saving, Financial Liberalization, Capital Flows and Growth in Latin
America and Europe, (Chapter 7), Washington DC, IADB. (with N. Noya and C.
Grau).
1999 “Modeling Inflation: Experience with US and Spanish Data”, presented in the
European Meeting of the Econometric Society, Santiago de Compostela, Spain. (with
A. Espasa, P. Poncela and E. Senra)
1999 “The relationship between inflation and relative price variability under stabilization:
The experience of the Uruguayan economy”. XVIIth Latin-American Meeting of the
Econometric Society and LACEA – 1999 Meeting. (with C. Daude)
IV.
Teaching
Since 2002
Since 2001
Since 1999
Since 1998
Since 1998
1998
Since 1998
Since 1996
Professor Applied Econometrics. Economics degree. Univ. ORT, Montevideo.
Professor “Time Series”, Graduate course in Economics. Universidad de la
República (Uruguay).
Associate Professor “Econometric Techniques for Long Run Analysis”,
Graduate course of Economic History, Universidad de la República (Uruguay).
Professor, Workshop of Statistical Methods for Finance, Finance Degree,
Graduate Course, Universidad ORT, Montevideo.
Professor, Econometrics I, Economics degree. Univ. ORT, Montevideo.
Professor, Econometrics II, Economics degree. Universidad ORT, Montevideo.
Professor, Econometrics Topics, Graduate course in International Economics,
Facultad de Ciencias Sociales. Universidad de la República (Uruguay).
Associate Professor, Applied Macroeconomics, Department of Economics,
Universidad de la República (Uruguay).
14
cinve
DIEGO OMAR ABOALError! Bookmark not defined. REBOLLO
Date of birth:
Place of birth:
Office address:
Phones:
Fax:
E-mail:
August 7, 1974
Rivera, Uruguay
Centro de Investigaciones Económicas (CINVE - Uruguay)
18 de Julio 1324. Piso 6, 11100 Montevideo, Uruguay
(598 2) 900 3051
(598 2) 908 4743
[email protected]
1. EDUCATIONAL BACKGROUND
2002
Master in Economics. Economic Sciences and Management School. Universidad de
la República. Two courses and thesis left to complete the requirements to obtain the
degree.
2000 Degree in Economics (Licenciado en Economía). Plan 1990. Economic Sciences
and Management School. Universidad de la República.
2. PROFESSIONAL BACKGROUND
A) Positions held recently
Current-2001 Associate Researcher at the Center for Economic Research (CINVE).
2002-2001
Advisor for Macroeconomics and Financial affairs of the Minister of
Economics and Finance of Uruguay.
B) Actual teaching positions
Since 2002
Assistant Professor of Economic Policy, University of the Republic of
Uruguay. Graduate course.
Assistant Professor of Advanced Macroeconomics I, University of the
Republic of Uruguay.
Assistant Professor of Advanced Macroeconomics II, University of the
Republic of Uruguay. Graduate course..
15
cinve
Since 2000
Assistant Professor of Economic Policy, University ORT, Uruguay.
Since 1999
Assistant professor of Economics II (Macroeconomics), University of the
Republic of Uruguay.
3. RELEVANT AND RECENT RESEARCHS AND PUBLICATIONS
A) In Progress
Optimal monetary rule for Uruguay (with Fernando Lorenzo).
B) Finished
2003
Political Economy in Uruguay. Politics and Institutions in the Economic Process.
CINVE-ICP-DECON-TILCE (with financial support of IADB and UNDP). Coeditor Juan Andrés Moraes, forthcoming.
“Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Uruguay: Fundamentals and Policy
Implications”, in Revista de Economía del BCU, forthcoming.
“Inflation Targeting in Uruguay: An Analysis of the Transmission Channels of the
Economic Policy”, (co-authors Fernando Lorenzo and Nelson Noya) in Revista de
Economía del BCU, forthcoming.
“Is the Exchange Rate Politically Manipulated Around Elections? The Evidence
From Uruguay”, (co-authors Andrés Rius and Fernando Lorenzo), Chapter 2 in
Aboal y Moraes eds. Political Economy in Uruguay. Politics and Institutions in the
Economic Process, CINVE-ICP-DECON-TRILCE, forthcoming.
2002
“On the Determinants of the Imported Consumption Goods”, Ministry of
Economy and Finance (MEF) Working Paper.
“The Elasticity of Gasoline Demand in Uruguay: An Application of Error
Correction Models”, MEF Working Paper.
16
cinve
ROSA OSIMANI
I.
PERSONAL DATA
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
II.
Date of birth:
Office address:
Phone:
Fax:
E-mail:
April 29, 1959
18 de Julio 1324/piso 6, 11100 Montevideo
(598 2) 900 30 51, 908 15 33
(598 2) 908 47 43
[email protected]
EDUCATIONAL BACKGROUND
1982
Degree in economics. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Administración
(FCEA), Universidad de la República.
Master in Economics. Universidade Estadual de Campinas, UNICAMP
(Brazil). Thesis director: Dr. Mario Luiz Possas.
III.
1.
PROFESSIONAL BACKGROUND
RESEARCH
Since 1987
1981-1987
2.
Senior researcher at Centro de Investigaciones Económicas (CINVE).
Junior researcher at CINVE.
TEACHING
2000/2001
Associate professor of Advanced Microeconomics at the FCEA, Universidad
de la República
Since 1998
Professor of Microeconomics for the Business Management degree at the
Universidad ORT, Uruguay.
IV.
SELECTED RESEARCH OR CONSULTANCY WORKS
2002-3 “Trade indicators and analysis”. Part of the project on the Impact of the FTAA on the
Mercosur countries. Mercosur Research Network. Supported by the Tinker
Foundation. Research coordinators: F. Lorenzo and M. Vaillant.
2001 “Perspectives of the Mercosur external relations”. Mercosur Research Network with
support from IADB. Research coordinators: J. M. Fanelli and D. Chudnovsky.
2000
“Trade, exchange regimes and volatility. Macroeconomic coordination in the
Mercosur.” Mercosur Research Network with support from International Development
Reserch Centre (IDRC – Canadá). Research coordinator: F. Lorenzo.
17
cinve
2000 “Savings options for low income families”. Supported by ECLAC. With F. Lorenzo.
1999
“Impact of the subregional integration process of the Mercosur on the growth pattern
of the chemical industry and the footwear industry.” Supported by INTAL (IADB).
Comparative study with Argentina and Brazil.
1999 “Updating of the Input-Output Table to the year 1995”. Part of the study on the
“Impact of trade opening of the Mercosur on the Uruguayan labor market.” Supported
by the Programa de Fortalecimiento de las Areas Sociales (FAS), Oficina de
Planeamiento y Presupuesto.
1998 “Evolution and perspectives of the Painting industry”, supported by Banco
Sudameris.
V.
SELECTED PUBLICATIONS
2001 “Dos frentes para la negociación externa del Mercosur: el ALCA y el Acuerdo con la
Unión Europea”. In: El desafío de integrarse para crecer: Balance y perspectivas del
Mercosur en su primera década, Madrid, Siglo XXI – Argentina and Mercosur
Research Network. With Silvia Laens.
2001 “Alternativas de política para fortalecer el ahorro de los hogares de menores ingresos:
el caso de Uruguay”. Serie “Financiamiento del Desarrollo”. Santiago, ECLAC. With
Fernando Lorenzo.
2001 “El impacto sectorial del proceso de integración regional en el Mercosur: sector
calzado y farmacéutico.” Buenos Aires, INTAL-IADB. With researchers of CINVE,
CENES (Argentina) and Funcex (Brazil).
2000 “Metalmecánico y plástico para el sector automotor”. Montevideo, Cámara de
Industrias del Uruguay. With Nelson Noya and Fernando Lorenzo.
1995 “Determinantes da competitividade. Notas sobre o caso dos setores industriais no
Uruguai". Tesis de maestría aprobada por la Universidad de Campinas
(UNICAMP). Montevideo, CINVE. Working Paper Nº 33.
1993 "Macroeconomic conditions and trade liberalization: the case of Uruguay". In:
Canitrot, A.; Junco, S. (ed) Macroeconomic conditions and trade liberalization.
Washington D.C., IADB. (with Silvia Laens).
1992 "Determinantes sectoriales del desempeño comercial". Suma 7(12), Montevideo,
CINVE.
1990 "Patrón de uso de recursos y estructuras de demanda". Suma 5(9), Montevideo,
CINVE.
1988 "Enfoques para el estudio de la estructura industrial" Suma 3(5), Montevideo, CINVE.
18