Part 4
Demand and Supply
Population growth is the principal driver
for the demand for rural residential land
and housing. The supply of rural
residential land and housing is driven
largely by planning decisions and
provisions in response to this demand.
Sound planning practice seeks to supply
or release land for this style of living in
response to demand, aiming to achieve a
reasonable equilibrium between both. A
balanced release of land reduces the
opportunity for speculation and artificial
influences on land values and permits
infrastructure to be planned and provided
in a timely and cost effective manner.
Overall Demand
Council presently has in place the Rural
Residential Strategy 1999, which applies
to the entire City with the exclusion of the
northern part (Corindi and Red Rock). The
purpose of the 1999 Strategy is stated as:
This Strategy will identify preferred
rural residential release areas based on
a catchment planning approach having
regard to physical, social and servicing
capacity.
The 1999 Strategy was in part a response
to the requirement under the North Coast
Regional Environmental Plan 1988 to
prepare a rural land release strategy prior
to any rezoning permitting rural
residential or small holding development.
The Strategy provided as its first objective:
To manage the supply of rural
residential lots in conjunction with
Council’s Urban Development Strategy;
within identified carrying capacity of
catchments (based on physical,
servicing and social criteria); and, based
on an analysis of genuine demand.
In establishing the demand for rural
residential allotments, the Strategy came
to the following conclusions:
ƒ
About 5% of the residents of Coffs
Harbour live in rural residential zones;
ƒ
Estate agents believe this is less than
the number that would prefer to live
in such areas;
ƒ
From 1994 to 1998 an average of 31
allotments were created;
ƒ
Rural residential allotments generally
sell for between $40,000 and
$80,000;
ƒ
These prices are beyond the capacity
of the average potential purchaser and
indicate a supply constraint;
ƒ
If more allotments were available
prices would fall and more allotments
would be taken up; and
ƒ
That about 184 allotments (three four years of land supply) was
available for rural residential
development as at 1999.
The Strategy also forecast a demand for
rural residential allotments, of some 45-50
allotments per annum.
Coffs Harbour City Rural Residential Strategy 2009
29
The supply of rural residential land within
the Coffs Harbour LGA has always been
limited by planning provisions. Given that
an unlimited supply of land has not been
available, it has not been possible to
gauge the market demand in an
unconstrained rural residential land stock
market.
As previously stated, the North Coast REP
requires that any rural residential strategy
calculate demand based on the average
number of allotments needed annually to
meet genuine demand. Furthermore, it
provides that this number is not to exceed
130% of the average number of building
approvals granted for the erection of
dwellings on rural residential land in the
area, in each of the preceding five years.
Locational supply has implications
regarding the ability to satisfy the demand
for rural residential land. Having regard
to the area of land remaining to be
developed within the four areas
mentioned above, the following is of
particular note:
ƒ
the majority of land available for
further development is located in the
Central area;
ƒ
the Western area contains an
adequate supply of land for the
foreseeable future given that no
allotments recently zoned for rural
residential purposes have been
registered; and
ƒ
a very limited supply of land remains
available for further development in
both the Northern and Southern areas.
Locality Demand
Discussions with real estate agents
indicate that potential purchasers of a
rural residential allotment are greatly
influenced by location, and that generally
speaking, demand is area specific. For
example, a person seeking an allotment in
the north of the LGA may not be
interested in an allotment in the southern
part of the LGA.
The LGA has land zoned for rural
residential purposes located in the
following manner:
30
ƒ
Northern
Country Club Estate.
ƒ
Central
Emerald Heights,
Avocado Heights, Korora
Basin, Heritage Park
Estate and Forest Glen
Estate.
ƒ
Southern Middle Boambee, Braford
Park Estate and Bonville
Park Estate.
ƒ
Western
Nana Glen-Bucca and
Coramba.
Coffs Harbour City Rural Residential Strategy 2009
Take Up Rates
Both the number of allotments created
and the number of dwellings approved
can give a guide as to the take up of rural
residential allotments The number of
allotments created is somewhat indicative
of the development industry’s take on
demand, as developers seek to make land
available when there is a demand for the
land, in order to maximise sale price.
Generally, allotments are not created (i.e.
registered) through subdivisions unless
there is an expectation that these will be
purchased; subdivisions generally do not
proceed unless there is an expectation
that there is a demand in the market.
Therefore, the number of allotments
registered in any given year is only
indicative of the take-up rate of rural
residential allotments, and is a reflection,
albeit limited, of the demand for these
types of allotments. A review of this
information is useful insofar as it provides
for an historical review of the take-up rate
of rural residential allotments.
Indeed the 1999 Strategy stated that a
supply constraint was apparent, on the
basis of land prices exceeding the amount
an average potential buyer could afford,
and that if allotments in the Korora Basin
were available, an increase in the take-up
rate (by virtue of an increase in supply)
would likely follow.
Table 2 shows the number of rural
residential allotments that were created on
an area by area basis, from 1985 up to
2007. Table 2 shows 855 allotments
registered between 1985 and 2007;
equating to an average of 37 allotments
per annum. This is similar to the 1999
Strategy’s forecast of a medium term
demand for 45-50 allotments, and reflects
what might be considered to be a slight
under supply of rural residential land (i.e.
supply is less than demand).
Table Notes: The majority of allotments
within this area were created between:
1 1972 and 1982;
2 1986 and 1993;
3 1990 and 2003;
4 1990 and 1993.
Table 2
Allotments Registered from 1985-2007 (as at December 2007)
Years
Country
Club1
Emerald
Heights2
Avocado
Hts/
Heritage
Park
Forest
Glen3
Korora
Basin
1985
Middle
Boambee
Braford
Park4
Bonville
Park
Nana
Glen,
Bucca,
Coramba
Total
Lots
50
50
33
1986
28
5
1987
8
2
1
11
1988
1
21
6
2
30
1989
2
21
4
9
36
14
3
1
3
2
11
17
1990
20
3
19
21
45
10
21
23
67
1
1
19
4
3
16
32
6
57
6
1
4
14
27
2
1
30
1
4
4
4
13
8
24
1
1999
8
2
1
6
4
21
2000
2
26
14
4
2
49
2001
4
17
2002
3
14
1
10
3
31
2003
35
32
1
7
75
2004
7
2
9
1991
1
1992
1993
2
1994
1995
3
1996
1997
1998
2005
1
1
46
26
112
28
72
34
2
4
1
23
1
1
8
2006
14
6
1
2
23
2007
2
8
1
1
12
Coffs Harbour City Rural Residential Strategy 2009
31
As is apparent from Table 2, there is
substantial variability in the number of
allotments registered in any given year.
For example in 1990 some 112 allotments
were registered, while more recently, in
2005 only three allotments were
registered. Moreover, in 2003 some 75
allotments were registered, while only nine
were registered the following year.
Table 3
Number of Dwellings Approved on Rural
1B Zoned Land
Number of dwellings approved on
land zoned Rural 1B Living Area
There also appears to be no apparent
trend in the number of allotments
registered over time, with the exception
that for the period 1985 to 2004 the
average number of allotments registered
was noticeably more than that from 1995
to the present.
The number of dwellings approved on
rural residential land is considered a more
accurate representation of demand, given
that the approval of a dwelling
demonstrates someone’s willingness to
reside on the allotment; it is uncommon
for developers to construct dwellings on
allotments prior to their sale. In addition,
this approach is consistent with that
required by the North Coast REP and
Settlement Guidelines.
Table 3 includes data setting out the
number of dwellings approved on rural
residential allotments for the period 2000
– 2008. On average, 42 dwellings are
approved each year (excluding the
unfinished year of 2008); for the
preceding five years (i.e. 2003 -2007) this
demand would be 40.
32
Coffs Harbour City Rural Residential Strategy 2009
Year
Number
2000
23
2001
60
2002
55
2003
81
2004
35
2005
26
2006
27
2007
27
Note: Average number of dwellings approved
each year for the period 2000-2007 is 42.
Anecdotal evidence from Council suggests
that in the Korora Basin, the largest bank
of undeveloped rural residential land, a
variety of factors have contributed to its
limited development for rural residential
purposes to date. These factors include:
ƒ
overcoming difficult and costly
upgrades to public roads to give
access to sites;
ƒ
satisfying bushfire related
requirements, including providing
satisfactory asset protection zones and
satisfactory access (construction and
gradient related); and
ƒ
potential purchasers not finding the
land attractive given the difficult road
network to be negotiated to reach
some areas, and also the ongoing
maintenance burden posed by sloping
(steep) allotments.
Latent Demand
The City contains numerous allotments
zoned for rural purposes (not rural
residential purposes) of sizes comparable
to the present two hectare and less rural
residential allotments available. It is an
option for persons looking for a rural
residential allotment to instead purchase a
small property zoned for rural purposes as
an alternative. Rural residential land is
generally created from land zoned for
rural purposes, and located in areas zoned
for mostly for general rural activities.
Consequently, these smaller rural zoned
allotments are likely to ‘take up’ some of
the demand for rural residential
allotments that would otherwise be
directed to areas zoned for this particular
purpose.
Given the LEP’s minimum lot size
restrictions for the general rural zone (i.e.
currently 40 hectares), it is unlikely that
further lots of sizes of two hectares or less
will be produced in the general rural zone.
Therefore, over time, these types of
allotments will become scarcer, with the
result that people looking to own a rural
residential allotment will increasingly be
limited to buying allotments actually
zoned for rural residential purposes. The
effect of this will be that the demand for
rural residential living in the longer term
will be more accurately reflected in the
take-up of allotments zoned for rural
residential purposes.
Table 4 shows the number of dwellings
approved on land zoned for general rural
purposes within the City. On average 37
dwellings are approved on general rural
land each year.
Table 4
Number of Dwellings Approved on Rural
1A Zoned Land
Number dwellings approved on
land zoned Rural 1A Agriculture
Year
Number
2000
27
2001
50
2002
51
2003
38
2004
42
2005
32
2006
29
2007
24
While the data in Table 4 is for only a
limited number of years, there does
appear to be a slight decrease in the
number of dwellings approved each year.
This decrease may be commensurate with
the view expressed above that the number
of vacant rural allotments is decreasing
over time as a result of the difficulties
faced in creating new (vacant) allotments.
Overall Supply
The City has approximately 1,859 hectares
of land identified for rural residential
purposes, which is spread throughout the
eastern part of the City. Figure 4 shows
the location of rural residential land
throughout the City.
In the northern part of the City (Country
Club Estate and Pullen Street), there is
little potential for further subdivision. In
the central areas of Emerald Heights,
Avocado Heights and Forest Glen Estate,
there is also little potential for further
subdivision. However, in the central areas
of the Heritage Park Estate and Korora
Basin, significant areas remain to be
developed.
Coffs Harbour City Rural Residential Strategy 2009
33
1B Zoned Land
Figure 4
This map compiled by
Coffs Harbour City Council
GIS Section~LRM
September 2008
Existing Rural
Residential Land
0
´
Note: Locational and exclusionary
criteria as detailed in Community
Information Fact Sheet No. 1,
yet to be applied.
4
8
KM
In the southern areas of Middle Boambee,
Braford Park Estate and Bonville Park
Estate, there is little further potential for
further subdivision. In the western areas
of Nana Glen -Bucca and Coramba,
significant areas remain for further
subdivision.
Locality Supply
An analysis of existing land zoned for
rural residential purposes reveals that
there is the capacity for approximately a
further 707 allotment to be created.
Table 5 below shows this capacity on a
locality by locality basis.
Table 5
Existing Zoned Areas Capacity
Potential Allotments
Locality
Country Club Estate
2
Emerald Heights
Estate
55
Heritage Park
Estate/Forest Glen
Estate
81
Middle Boambee
34
Potential Lots
4
Boambee (Lindsays
Road)
27
Bonville Park
22
Nana Glen
47
Coramba
32
Korora Basin
437
Total available
potential allotments
707
Coffs Harbour City Rural Residential Strategy 2009
Future Demand and Supply
Based on building approvals issued for
dwellings on rural residential land, the
demand for an average of 42 allotments
per year and allowing for some demand
being satisfied by the take-up of rural
zoned allotments, it is considered that a
demand for a further eight allotments per
annum within the City is likely for the
foreseeable future. This demand is
expected to be strongest in the southern
parts of the City, given:
ƒ
the very limited supply of land in
these areas; and
ƒ
the proximity of this area to
Sawtell/Toormina and Coffs Harbour –
centres which contain the majority of
services within the LGA.
As stated above, a total of 707 potential
allotments may be created from land
presently zoned for rural residential
purposes.
Given the average demand is for 42
dwellings per annum a genuine demand
for 55 rural residential allotments per
annum (i.e. 42 x 130% = 54.6) under the
provisions of the REP.; this should take
into account the diminishing latent
demand over time. If the take-up rate of
55 allotments is applied per annum to the
undeveloped land zoned for rural
residential purposes, then all land will
have been developed in just over 12 years
time. The graph over reflects this
information.
Notably, the calculations shown in the
graph below assume that land will be
subdivided to the minimum allotment size
so as to yield the maximum number of
allotments (i.e. one hectare throughout
the majority of areas with the exception
of two hectare minimum allotments sizes
in parts of the Korora Basin, Nana Glen
and Coramba). On this basis, it is more
likely that all land will have been
developed slightly earlier than the year
2020 shown, and probably somewhere
between 2016 and 2017.
^2020
^2019
^2018
^2017
^2016
^2015
^2014
^2013
^2012
^2011
^2010
^2009
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
^2008
Number of Potential Lots
Rural Residential Land Projected Annual Take Up
Year
Later sections of this Strategy use a
number of constraints to identify what
land might be appropriate for rural
residential development. The constraints
used for this purpose include:
ƒ
land identified in the OLC Settlement
Strategy for urban purposes;
ƒ
land mapped as regionally significant
farmland;
ƒ
land within the 1 in 100 year flood
extent;
ƒ
land mapped as Class 1 and 2 acid
sulphate soils;
ƒ
land on the prominent ridgelines of
Korora;
ƒ
land of ecological significance; and
ƒ
land with a slope in excess of 20%.
These constraints will also affect, in part,
the lands currently zoned for rural
residential purposes. Given this and the
long lead times for rezoning and
development of land to occur, land will
need to be released prior to 2016-2017 if
the balance between supply and demand
is to be maintained.
Coffs Harbour City Rural Residential Strategy 2009
35
Snapshots
Under the North Coast REP any land that is released is to be based on the ‘genuine’
demand for rural residential housing; genuine demand is the average number of building
approvals granted for the erection of rural residential dwellings in each preceding five
years, multiplied by 130%.
From 2000 to 2007 the average annual number of building approvals issued for dwellings
on rural residential land was 42; this represents a genuine demand for 55 rural residential
allotments per annum (i.e. 42 x 130% = 54.6).
There is a total of 707 potential lots to be developed on land currently zoned for rural
residential purposes; based on the genuine demand, a rural residential land stock supply
for the next 11 years (i.e. until the year 2020 is currently available).
Little land is available in the northern and southern areas of the City for rural residential
development, while the central (Korora Basin) and western areas (Coramba) have ample
supply.
36
Coffs Harbour City Rural Residential Strategy 2009