Russian Industrial Enterprises under
the Conditions of Uncertainty and Risk:
Empirical Investigation in 2005-2007
Roman M. Kachalov
Central Economics and Mathematics Institute
RAS
THE FUTURE OF EUROPE IN A WORLD OF UNCERTAINTIES
39th CMTEA - Romania, Iaşi, September 25-27th, 2008
Russian Industrial Enterprises under Conditions of Uncertainty and Risk:
Empirical Investigation in 2005-2007
The source of a risk is uncertainty.
The economic risk is a characteristic of
purposeful activities in the conditions of
uncertainty.
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Russian Industrial Enterprises under Conditions of Uncertainty and Risk:
Empirical Investigation in 2005-2007
Definition:
Economic risk is a specific general economic
category which, taken in its entirety, reflects
«the measure of reality of an undesirable
deviation» from the purpose of the economic
activities and the size of losses caused by
such a deviation.
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Russian Industrial Enterprises under Conditions of Uncertainty and Risk:
Empirical Investigation in 2005-2007
Risk management standards:
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A Risk Management Standard (2002) – FERMA;
Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) - Integrated
Framework (2004) – COSO, Treadway
Commission;
Australian/New Zealand Risk Management
standard (AS/NZS 4360, 2004);
ISO/IEC Guide 73 Risk Management –
Vocabulary – Guidelines for use in standards.
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Russian Industrial Enterprises under Conditions of Uncertainty and
Risk: Empirical Investigation in 2005-2007
Our investigation based on:
 the methodology of system-integration theory of
enterprise (Georgy Kleyner),
 the operational approach to risk analysis.
These concepts is developed in The Central Economics
and Mathematics Institute of the Russian Academy
of Sciences
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Russian Industrial Enterprises under Conditions of Uncertainty and Risk:
Empirical Investigation in 2005-2007
The questionnaire includes 24 questions in four sections:
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«Estimation by respondents of the current risk
level»,
«Estimation of the level of organizational and
methodological support of works on risk analysis at
the responding enterprise»,
«Estimation of importance of works on risk analysis
and risk management for the responding
enterprise» and
«General information about the responding
enterprise».
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Russian Industrial Enterprises under Conditions of Uncertainty and
Risk: Empirical Investigation in 2005-2007
Distribution respondents in according to their risk level
Рис. 1. Распределение предприятий по степени риска их хозяйственной деятельности
100%
16,2
10,0
7,2
65,3
74,2
78,4
90%
Доли в выборке, %
80%
70%
Затрудняюсь ответить
60%
Все хозяйственные решения нашего предприятия
рискованные
50%
Некоторые хозяйственные решения связаны с
риском
40%
Нет, не связана
30%
20%
10%
0%
2005 г.
2006 г.
2007 г.
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Russian Industrial Enterprises under Conditions of Uncertainty and
Risk: Empirical Investigation in 2005-2007
Managers attitude to risk management
Рис. 2. Отношение к внедрению функции управления риском
80
70
Доля ответа в выборке, %
60
50
Функция УР отсутствует
40
Внедрение функции УР не планируется
Не видят необходимости управлять риском
30
20
10
0
2005 г.
2006 г.
2007 г.
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Russian Industrial Enterprises under Conditions of Uncertainty and Risk:
Empirical Investigation in 2005-2007
Why there is an negative attitude to risk management?
Respondents see the main reason:
 Absence of traditions,
 Absence the special educations of domestic managers
(43,8 %, 60 % and 57,7 %),
 Absence or inaccessibility of distinct methodical
recommendations (on the average about 60 %).
 Inaccessibility of knowledge about positive results of risk
management at other enterprises.
 Not-economic methods of interaction prevail in Russia,
 Unwillingness of heads of the enterprises to go on
additional expenses and to make organizational efforts for
introduction of risk management.
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Russian Industrial Enterprises under Conditions of Uncertainty and Risk:
Empirical Investigation in 2005-2007
Distribution by the degree of decrease of the
importance:
 RF in the sphere of realization of
production,
 RF in the supply sphere,
 RF due to errors of the personnel and
infringement of industrial discipline, and
 RF in the enterprise management system.
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Russian Industrial Enterprises under Conditions of Uncertainty and
Risk: Empirical Investigation in 2005-2007
Methods of risk management
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
Методы уклонения от риска
50%
Методы локализации риска
40%
Методы диссипации риска
30%
Методы компенсации риска
20%
10%
0%
2005
2006
2007
Годы
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Russian Industrial Enterprises under Conditions of Uncertainty and Risk:
Empirical Investigation in 2005-2007
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Main conclusions:
The managers of the Russian enterprises is
understanding major problems of risk management
and adequate perception by them of the conceptual
instruments of the operational theory of economic
risk management.
The institutional environment of risk management
has not been formed so far in Russia.
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Russian Industrial Enterprises under Conditions of Uncertainty and Risk:
Empirical Investigation in 2005-2007
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Main conclusions:
For the three years, the attitude of Russian
managers to risk management has not undergone
essential changes
The respondents seem to be more anxious about
external risk factors in contrast to internal ones.
The enterprises set up a special division, work to
specific schedule, make the one of top managers
responsible for realization of the risk management
function, etc.
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Russian Industrial Enterprises under Conditions of Uncertainty and Risk:
Empirical Investigation in 2005-2007
FIN
Thanks for your attention!
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