4/26/2016
Independence and Interdependence in collective
decision making: an agent-based model of nest-site
choice by honeybee swarms
By: Gunnar Schack and Matthew Horve
Condorcet’s Jury Theorem
“if each member of a jury has an equal and independent chance better than
random, but worse than perfect, of making a correct judgement on whether a
defendant is guilty, the majority of jurors is more likely to be correct than each
individual juror.”
If you would like us to explain how bees pick a new hive location, speak now, or
we’ll assume you get it by now.
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4/26/2016
Simulation
- Nests can be found either by random chance or by looking at bees dancing
for the site.
- The weighting of the terms is determined by the interdependence between the bees
- Bees can dance for a site based of what they saw or by mimicking another
bee
Variables changed:
- Interdependence
- Independance of bees
- Accuracy of dances
Hypothesis
“First, that individual bees are neither very reliable nor completely unreliable, and
second, that the bees' waggle dances have a significant but not exclusive influence
on other bees' decisions to investigate potential nest sites.”
+
Individualists
=
Collectivists
bees
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4/26/2016
By the numbers
Cascading Information effect-a human example
Consider the scenario of choosing a restaurant
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