Turkish State Meteorological Service
Analysis of Sand and Dust Storms (SDS)
between the years 2003 and 2016
in the Middle East
Assist. Prof. Dr. Mustafa COŞKUN
Turkish State Meteorological Service
Head of Research Department
International Conference on Combating Sand and Dust Storms
3-5 July 2017, Tehran
Sand and Dust Storms (SDS)
Dust transport is very important issue for the world ecosystem. Desert dusts could be
transported for a long distances, by transferring the upper layers of the atmosphere.
SAHARA
Main dust source areas in Middle East and North Africa are known as Sahara,
Sahel, Arabian Peninsula and Iran.
International Conference on Combating Sand and Dust Storms
3-5 July 2017, Tehran
SDS Source Areas
Spatial variability of the annual dust emission potential in ME.
Gherboudj, I., Beegum, S. N., & Ghedira, H. (2016). Identifying natural dust source regions over the
Middle-East and North-Africa: Estimation of dust emission potential. Earth-Science Reviews.
International Conference on Combating Sand and Dust Storms
3-5 July 2017, Tehran
Sand and Dust Storms (SDS)
IPCC accepts mineral dust as a very important component of atmospheric aerosols,
one of the main climate variables. According to the IPCC's latest climate predictions,
it is expected that sand and dust storms will be more intense as the frequency and
severity of the drought has increased.
BAN Ki-Moon, “Global Assessment of
Sand and Dust Storms, UNEP, WMO,
UNCCD (2016) ”.
Editor: Gemma Shepherd, UNEP
There is considerable uncertainty about
whether SDS are increasing in intensity
and frequency and how much is due to
human causes. There is also need for
greater clarity on the role that climate
change is playing and how changes in
Global Dust Potential Map.
dust emissions due to land use.
Source: DTF (2013).
International Conference on Combating Sand and Dust Storms
3-5 July 2017, Tehran
Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD)
Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) provides
important information about the
concentration, size distribution, and
variability of aerosols (desert dust, sea salt,
haze, and smoke particles) in the atmosphere.
It is a dimensionless number related to the
amount of aerosol distributed within the
vertical column of atmosphere over the
March 10, 2009 - Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
observation location. AOD provides a
quantitative measure of the extinction of
solar radiation due to aerosol scattering and
absorption. Heavy dust regions are defined by
AOD higher than 0.3. Around deserts, AOD
values are above 1.0 and usually below 3.0.
International Conference on Combating Sand and Dust Storms
3-5 July 2017, Tehran
Angstrom Exponent (AE)
The Angstrom Exponent (AE) is an exponent that provides additional information
on the particle size, aerosol phase function and the relative magnitude of aerosol
radiances at different wavelengths.
It is inversely related to
the average size of the
particles in the aerosol:
the smaller the particle
size, the larger the
Angstrom Exponent is.
Therefore, low AE values
indicate strong presence
of coarse aerosols relating
to the dust events.
International Conference on Combating Sand and Dust Storms
3-5 July 2017, Tehran
SDS Analysis over Middle East
Mean AOD of the period 20032016 illustrates high AOD values
reaching up to 0.5 over east of
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain,
Qatar, Iraq and Persian Gulf.
Low AE values are observed over
Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Syria and
lowest ones over Persian Gulf.
Those areas with low AE and high
AOD point out dust storms.
International Conference on Combating Sand and Dust Storms
3-5 July 2017, Tehran
Spatial AOD and AE Variaton in ME
Moving northward along 20-38N, AOD values decrease while AE values show an
increase. In the southern part of the Middle East, this behavior can be closely related
to more strong and frequent dust storms characterized by high AOD and low AE.
International Conference on Combating Sand and Dust Storms
3-5 July 2017, Tehran
Annual AOD Trends in Middle East
Annual AOD values of the Central Middle East almost follow the averaged values of
the Middle East Region as expected, while higher values of AOD are observed in the
Southern ME.
International Conference on Combating Sand and Dust Storms
3-5 July 2017, Tehran
Seasonal AOD Variation in Middle East
Seasonal variation of AOD in the Central Middle East is similar to averaged AOD
values of the Middle East which has a maximum in April. On the other hand, the
Southern Middle East exhibits a different seasonal pattern with a maximum AOD
value in July. AOD values have a maximum in spring and low AOD values are
observed during winter season for both Northern and Central ME.
International Conference on Combating Sand and Dust Storms
3-5 July 2017, Tehran
Extreme and Strong Aerosol Events
By using threshold values of AOD,
extreme and strong aerosol events
were calculated (Gkikas et al 2009).
Extreme aerosol events point out
dust storms while strong aerosol
events are linked to sea salt, forest
fires and anthropogenic activities.
In the southern region, high number of SDS
occurs compared to the northern region
throughout 14 years.
High values of monthly dust events shift to
summer when we move southward in the
Middle East.
International Conference on Combating Sand and Dust Storms
3-5 July 2017, Tehran
Annual AOD Trends in Middle East
For the last 4 years (2013-2016), annual
mean AOD is comparably lower than the
previous period due to the 3 different
satellite measurements.
The values are the highest between
2008 and 2012.
International Conference on Combating Sand and Dust Storms
3-5 July 2017, Tehran
Turkish State Meteorological Service
SDS Studies at TSMS
International Conference on Combating Sand and Dust Storms
3-5 July 2017, Tehran
SDS Forecasts at TSMS
The BSC-DREAM8b SDS Forecast model has been established at TSMS in cooperation
with Spanish Met. Service under the EU TAIEX Small Grants Program.
The operational forecasts by BSC-DREAM8b have been started in June 2010.
Forecasts are published at TSMS website.
International Conference on Combating Sand and Dust Storms
3-5 July 2017, Tehran
WDCC - Weather, Dust and Climate Center
www.wdcc.mgm.gov.tr
International Conference on Combating Sand and Dust Storms
3-5 July 2017, Tehran
Virtual SDS Forecasting Center
Turkey hosts the Virtual SDS
Forecasting Center for the
Middle East countries in
accordance with the “Action
Plan on the Cooperation on the
Environment and Meteorology”
agreed by Turkey, Iran, Iraq,
Syria and Qatar.
Operational SDS Forecasts have
been produced and published
for the countries in Middle East
and North Africa through this
center since November 2012.
International Conference on Combating Sand and Dust Storms
3-5 July 2017, Tehran
SDS Training Activities
22-26 Feb. 2011, Istanbul
21-25 Nov. 2011, Antalya
26-28 Nov. 2012, Ankara
28-31 Oct. 2013, Istanbul
04-07 Oct. 2016, Istanbul
International Conference on Combating Sand and Dust Storms
3-5 July 2017, Tehran
Turkish State Meteorological Service
THANK YOU FOR YOUR
KIND ATTENTION
Assist. Prof. Dr. Mustafa COŞKUN
Turkish State Meteorological Service
Head of Research Department
International Conference on Combating Sand and Dust Storms
3-5 July 2017, Tehran
Turkish State Meteorological Service
International Conference on Combating Sand and Dust Storms
3-5 July 2017, Tehran
AOD Trends, 2000 - 2009
Zhang and Reid (2010) analyzed MODIS and MISR AOD data for the period 2000-2009
over the ocean both global and regional scale. They haven’t found significant trend
in global (0.003/decade).
On a regional scale the Bay of Bengal (0.07/decade), Asia's eastern coast (0.06/
decade) and on the Arabian Sea (0.06/decade), significant increases were observed.
- 0.013
0.058
0.062
0.069
- 0.016
Zhang, J., & Reid, J. S. (2010). A decadal regional and global trend analysis of the aerosol
optical depth using a data-assimilation grade over-water MODIS and Level 2 MISR aerosol
products. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10(22), 10949-10963.
International Conference on Combating Sand and Dust Storms
3-5 July 2017, Tehran
AOD Trends, 2000 - 2009
Hsu et al.: Aerosol optical depth over land and ocean.
Comparisons of global and regional annual trends based upon deseasonalised monthly
anomaly of SeaWiFS AOD at 550 nm from January 1998 to December 2010. Units are AODyr−1.
Red bars represent regions with AOD trend statistically significant (exceeding 90% confidence),
while blue bars indicate regions where statistically significant trend are not found.
International Conference on Combating Sand and Dust Storms
3-5 July 2017, Tehran
AOD Trends, 2000 - 2009
Hsu et al., Global and regional trends of AOD over land and
ocean using SeaWiFS measurements from 1997 to 2010.
The resulting trend analyses based upon the SeaWiFS data from 1998 to
2010 show that the global annual trend of AOD during this period,
although weakly positive (i.e. 0.00078 ± 0.00019 yr−1) and statistically
significant at 95% level.
For the mineral dust-dominated parts of the world, strong positive trends
are detected over the Arabian Peninsula and the adjacent waters. In
contrast, a negative tendency is observed in the emission and export of
Saharan dust over the western North Africa and the North Atlantic.
Hsu, N. C., Gautam, R., Sayer, A. M., Bettenhausen, C., Li, C., Jeong, M. J., Tsay, S.-C., and
Holben, B. N.: Global and regional trends of aerosol optical depth over land and ocean using
SeaWiFS measurements from 1997 to 2010, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 8037-8053,
doi:10.5194/acp-12-8037-2012, 2012.
International Conference on Combating Sand and Dust Storms
3-5 July 2017, Tehran