The Future Of Social Networks
Charlene Li
Vice President & Principal Analyst
Co-author of Groundswell
Forrester Research
March 4, 2008
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They are online with their social networks
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Theme
Social networks
will be like air.
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Components of social networks
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Profile
Universal identity
Relationships
A single social graph
Activities
Social context for activities
Business model
Social influence defines
marketing value
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My multiple identities
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Universal identity
[email protected]
[email protected]
Mobile number
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Universal identity foundations
• Federation (OpenID approach)
• A few major players will serve as major federation
focal points
» Yahoo!, Microsoft, Google, Plaxo, etc.
• All players must realize that they can grow the
market faster/better by working together
» Data Portability Group is the beginning
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Bill of Rights for Users of the Social Web
“We publicly assert that all users of the social web are entitled to
certain fundamental rights, specifically:
• Ownership of their own personal information, including:
» their own profile data
» the list of people they are connected to
» the activity stream of content they create;
• Control of whether and how such personal information is shared
with others; and
• Freedom to grant persistent access to their personal information to
trusted external sites.”
- Authored by Joseph Smarr, Marc Canter, Robert Scoble,
and Michael Arrington
http://blog.broadbandmechanics.com/2007/09/a-bill-of-rights-for-users-of-the-social-web
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My Facebook social graph
Missing
Colleagues
Parents
Extended family
School parents
Neighbors
Babysitter
Walking group
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My real social graph is much more complex
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Let’s end the insanity
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Relationships today are explicit – and a pain
Twitter
Facebook
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LinkedIn
Plaxo
New “entrants” will challenge the incumbents
Millions of regular users
Search & deep content
Ad and content networks
Relationship maps
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Relationship mapping will be automatic and
permission-based
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What people do today on social networks
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Dave has a nice book review on Facebook
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But it would be more helpful on Amazon
“See friends’ reviews”
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How Yahoo! could incorporate social networks
Search based on what
my friends finds relevant
Elevate stories tagged
by friends – anywhere
Compare daily portfolio
performance to friends’
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See which of my friends
owns a Focus – and
what they think of it
The under-rated value of networks
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Endorsement value depends on your network
• Your authority on the
specific topic
• Your network’s
interest and authority
on the topic
• The trust level among
your network on the
topic
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The future business model for social networks
• Marketers will pay to reach and influence valuable
• Each person will have their own “personal CPM”*
• Social networks will compete to have the best
experience for high-influence individuals
* From Marian Salzman, JWT
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Evolution of open platforms
Ubiquitous
social networks
Walled garden
services
Search
freedom
1993
1999
2003
2008-9
Data
portability
Portal
aggregators
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2013
Recommendations
• Create linkages between services based on
individually-controlled identity federation
• Compete on creating the most compelling social
experience, not social graph lock-in
• Develop social applications that have meaning
• Integrate social networks into existing activities
• Design business models that reflect the value
created by people’s social networks
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Thank you
Charlene Li
+1 650.581.3833
[email protected]
www.forrester.com
groundswell.forrester.com
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