Mathematics and Social
Research in the Scottish
Government
Clare Leadbetter
Research Officer
[email protected]
My Background
• Mature Student
• BSc in Mathematics and Computing Science
• MSc in Social Research Methods
• Health informatics researcher – Cancer Care Research
Centre University of Stirling
• Quantitative researcher – Commonwealth Games Legacy
Team, Communities Analytical Services
Applications of mathematics in my
job
• Analysing human behaviour through a predictive
modelling tool (regression techniques)
• Analysing the domains that make up the physical
activity measurement
• Looking at trends/patterns in the data
• Statistically significant differences
• evidence being used to inform policy
Statistical Software
Compute ad10hwk=-5.
IF (housewrk=2 or hwrklist=2 or hevyhwrk=2)ad10hwk=0.
IF (range(heavyday,1,28) AND range(hwtim,10,800))
ad10hwk=heavyday.
IF range (hwtim,0,9) ad10hwk=0.
IF any(-9,HrsHhw,Minhhw)|any(-8,HrsHhw,Minhhw)
ad10hwk=-8.
IF any(-9,housewrk, hwrklist, hevyhwrk, heavyday, hwtim)
ad10hwk=-9.
IF any(-8,housewrk, hwrklist, hevyhwrk, heavyday, hwtim)
ad10hwk=-8.
IF range(age,0,15) ad10hwk=-2.
Recode ad10hwk (1 thru 3 =1) (4 thru 11=2) (12 thru 19=3)
(20 thru hi=4) (else=copy)
INTO ad10hwk2.
variable label ad10hwk '(D) Adults: Days 10+min heavy
housework'.
variable label ad10hwk2 '(D) Adults: Days 10+min heavy
housework (grouped)'.
value labels ad10hwk -8 "don't know"
-9"not answered"
-2"schedule not applicable"
-1"item not applicable".
value labels ad10hwk2
-8 "don't know"
-9"not answered"
-2 "schedule not applicable"
-1"item not applicable"
0 'None'
1 '1 to 3 days'
2 '4 to 11 days'
3 '12 to 19 days'
4 '20 days or more'.
format ad10hwk2 ad10hwk (f8.0).
proc surveymeans data=work.shesTemp12;
where age>=16 and hrsman10>=0;
var hrsman10 ;
domain ag16g10;
strata strata;
cluster psu;
weight int12wt;
format sex sex.;
title "Mean hours spent per week on manual work";
run;
SAS
SPSS
Excel
Q1: Does engaging in cultural activities or
participating in sport increase the likelihood of
good health and high life satisfaction?
Odds Ratio Relationship
OR=1
means no
difference
between the
groups
Example – Reporting good health
Same:
Age
economic status
income
area deprivation
education
qualification
disability/ illness
smoking
Yes
Twice more likely to
report good health
Participated in
sport
No
Q2: Is sport the largest section that
makes up Physical Activity?
WOMEN
MEN
Average number of hours per a week doing each activity
Scottish Health Survey 2011
Q3: When do children become
less active?
Percentage of boys meeting the
Physical Activity guidelines
Percentage of children aged 2-15 who participated in
sports and exercise in the previous week, 1998-2012, by
sex
Scottish Health Survey 2012
Percentage of girls meeting the
Physical Activity guidelines
Scottish Health Survey 1998-2012
Scottish Health Survey 2012
Q4: Has there been a change in sport
participation and physical activity?
Are sustained changes in physical
activity and sports participation
evident among particular groups?
Scottish Household Survey 2012
Sports participation in the last four
weeks
Scottish Household Survey 2012
Q5: Has there been a change in
cultural engagement?
Are sustained changes in
cultural engagement
evident among particular
groups?
Scottish Household Survey 2012
Scottish Household Survey 2012
Q6: What type of person is more likely to
attend/engage in the Commonwealth Games?
• Predict behaviour based on questions on the Olympic Games
Do you Intend to follow / Have you been following /
Did you follow the London 2012 Olympic or
Paralympic games in any of the following ways?
Scottish Household Survey 2012
Scottish Household Survey 2012
Commonwealth Games
Questions
•
Is there evidence for a 'demonstration effect' among those already, or recently,
physically active?
•
Is there evidence of a 'festival effect' among those who are currently sedentary?
•
Have legacy investments and programmes which aim to increase physical activity
contributed to change? What can we learn for the future?
•
What change is observed over time in key outcomes e.g. (physical activity,
neighbourhood experience, cultural engagement, volunteering)?
•
Have there been changes in the physical, social and retail environment over time?
•
Has there been a change in civic pride among particular groups?
•
What aspects of international reputation have changed over time?
References
•
Roma Maguire, Julie Cowie, Clare Leadbetter, Kathryn McCall, Kevin Swingler, Lisa McCann,
and Nora Kearney ‘The development of a side effect risk assessment tool (ASyMS©-SERAT)
for use in patients with breast cancer undergoing adjuvant chemotherapy’ Journal of
Research in Nursing January 2009 14: 27-40
•
Clare Leadbetter and Niamh O’Connor ‘Healthy attendance? The impact of cultural
engagement and Sports participation on health and Satisfaction with life in Scotland’
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0043/00430649.pdf
•
An Evaluation of the Commonwealth Games 2014 Legacy for Scotland Report 1: Questions,
Methods and Baseline http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0040/00408160.pdf
•
Scottish Household Survey
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/16002/PublicationAnnual
•
Scottish Health Survey http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Health/scottishhealth-survey/Publications#a1