World System, Varieties of Capitalism, or Variegated Capitalism? Implications for the Study of Asian Political Economy Bob Jessop Lancaster University Outline • What is capitalism? • • • • • • • • World system theory Varieties of capitalism: rival approaches Variegated capitalism World market and variegated capitalism Eurocentrism and/or Amerocentrism Variegated Capitalism in Asia Pathological (in)compossibility? Conclusions Analytical Strategies . Empirical observation of actual cases, aims to be complete, and Taxonomic includes horizontal and vertical ordering of taxa. Different bases of Classification classification produce different taxonomies but each taxon is pure. Heuristic Typologies Construction of theoretically-guided ideal types. Number of types constructed varies with aim. Different heuristic purposes produce different typologies. Accepts impurity and hybridity of cases Statistical Induction Induction from statistical analysis of a population or a purposive sample of cases to identify more or less distinct clusters, their relative proximity, and their nesting in given property space. Theoretically Theoretically-guided reconstruction of actual cases; concepts may well be modified in course of analysis. Number of types depends on -Informed Comparison concreteness-complexity of given research object. CAPITALISM Rational Capitalism Political Capitalism Traditional commercial capitalism Mode #1 Mode #2 Mode #3 Mode #4 Mode #5 Mode #6 Trade in free markets & capitalist production Capitalist speculation and finance Predatory political profits Profit on market from force and domination Profit from ‘unusual’ deals with political authority Traditional types of trade or money deals Weber’s Typology of Capitalism (Based on Swedberg 1998) Weber versus VoC Literature • Weber distinguishes six types of capitalism • Recent VoC studies mostly examine variation within the two sub-types of ‘rational capitalism’: – trade in free markets and capitalist production – capitalist speculation and finance • So these studies ignore Weber’s three sub-types of political capitalism + traditional commercial capitalism – former have key role in global economy – commercial capitalism is also significant Marx and Capitalism • Marx’s account of capitalist mode of production is mostly concerned with rational capitalism too – he wants to show that modern capitalism rests on profitoriented, market-mediated accumulation – in which exploitation takes the form of exchange • But he does study role of political capitalism in primitive accumulation (and colonialism) and in specific contexts (e.g., Bonapartist France) • He also contrasts merchant capital with logic of industrial capitalism based on machinofacture Marx on the World Market - I The most developed mode of existence of the integration of abstract labour with the value form is the world market, a place in which production is posited as a totality together with all its moments, but within which, at the same time, all contradictions come into play (Grundrisse: 227) Wallerstein on Modern World System • Single logic of capital based on economic and military competition among capitalist powers to capture surplus, however generated • Exploitation occurs at world scale – based on division of world into centre, semiperiphery, and periphery • Mobility in world system is shaped by competitive logic of system plus players’ strategies WS Approach to Capitalism • AG Frank and Wallerstein study rise of modern world system based on expansion of traditional commercial/mercantile capitalism from Europe • Arrighi studies successive hegemonies based on territorial expansion (political capitalism) or on capital flows (commercial/rational capitalism) and is sensitive to financialization and its crisis-tendencies • All three highlight world system logic but Arrighi views this logic more dialectically and is more concerned with multiple aspects of hegemony Marx on the World Market - II The movement of capital, though much accelerated, still remained, however, relatively slow. The splitting up of the world market into separate parts, each of which was exploited by a particular nation, the exclusion of competition among themselves on the part of the nations, the clumsiness of production itself and the fact that finance was only evolving from its early stages, greatly impeded circulation’ (Marx and Engels, German Ideology) This lack of integration informs study of varieties of capitalism Varieties of Capitalism (VoC) • Pluralistic logic based on VoC, each with its own dynamic • Path-dependent ensembles of institutional complementarities that efficiently solve critical coordination problems of capitalist production • Global dynamic reflects institutional as well as profitoriented, market-mediated competition among VoC Some Limits to VoC Analysis - I • Most recent VoC approach is firm-centred and focuses on organization of firms qua “productive capital”; has fewer concepts for analyzing capitalist speculation and finance • Adopts rational choice (or Coasian) analysis and historical institutionalism, studies co-selection of efficient (extra-) economic institutions for macro-economic performance and global competitiveness in specific sectors • It assumes separation of economic and political institutions, analyses state as one institutional complex among others, and regards political regime change as exogenous (e.g., rise of neo-liberalism) rather than aspect of economic strategies of some fractions Some Limits to VoC Analysis - II • VoC work views private and public banks chiefly as intermediaries in allocating capital to profitable nonfinancial activities, sees financial innovation in this light • Hence ill-equipped to study autonomization of financial capital and its diverse effects on firms’ performance • Latest VoC approach evolved during “great moderation” (benign conditions in advanced capitalist economies): so crisis, stagnation, inflation were off VoC research horizon • But great moderation can be seen as first stage in Minsky super-cycle (financial tranquillity, fragility, vulnerability), with so-called “global financial crisis” as its culmination Some Limits to VoC Analysis - III • Historical institutionalism in VOC helps distinguish stages of capitalism and also facilitates comparative research • Analysis of institutional complementarities and microfoundations helps explain relative stability of some VoCs • Institutional analyses ignore capitalism’s generic features and the abstract potential for crisis in its incompressible contradictions. Limits capacity to explain impermanence of any spatio-temporal fix, whether linked to VoC or not • Mid-range analyses also neglect self-organizing dynamic of profit-oriented, market-mediated capitalism and its ecological dominance, promoting completion of world market and helping to realize all of its contradictions Regulationist Approaches to VoC • RA based on basic contradictions of capital relation, not efficient institutional solutions to coordination problems • Accumulation regime: a complementary pattern of production and consumption that is reproducible over a long period despite contradictions and crisis-tendencies • Mode of regulation: emergent ensemble of norms, institutions, organizational forms, social networks, and patterns of conduct that can temporarily stabilize an accumulation regime despite the conflictual and antagonistic character of capitalist social relations • Mode of development: AR + MoR + societal paradigm A Marxist View of “Capitalism” • Wealth appears as immense accumulation of commodities • Commodity form generalized to labour-power (which is a fictitious commodity but treated as if it were a commodity) • Duality of labour-power as concrete labour and labour time • A political economy of time (note especially the constant rebasing of abstract time treadmill effects) • Key role of money as social relation in mediating profit-oriented, market-mediated accumulation process • Essential role of competition in dynamic of capitalism • Market mechanism cannot secure all conditions of capitalist reproduction (even ignoring labour process) Some Foundational Contradictions Form Value Aspect Material Aspect Commodity Exchange-value Use-value Labour-power Abstract labour Concrete skills Wage Cost of production Source of demand Money Interest-bearing capital International currency Measure of value National money Productive capital Abstract value in motion Stock of specific assets Knowledge Intellectual property Intellectual commons “Nature” Absolute + differential rent Spaceship earth State “Ideal collective capitalist” Factor of social cohesion The Significance of Contradictions • These (and other) contradictions are incompressible but weight varies across stages and “varieties” of capitalism • Contradictions dilemmas (does State treat wages, including social wage, mainly as source of demand – Keynesian welfare; as cost of [international] production – neoliberal retrenchment; or both – as in flexicurity?). • Handling of these contradictions shapes later crises (e.g., Keynesian welfare state is weakened as wage qua cost, money qua currency, get more significant, limiting crisismanagement capacities, damaging social compromise) • This does not determine forms of next spatio-temporal fix(es), these depend on path-shaping initiatives and the new challenges to accumulation at different scales Form Focus of VoC Neglected in VoC Commodity Asset specificity of use-value and price Exchange-value, price formation in formation of particular commodities relation to OCC and average profit rate Wage relation Individual and social wage; pay design; Determinants of real pay, labour power industrial relations; role of supervisors as fictitious commodity, surplus value, and managers in technical efficiency management as powers of capital Labour Power Skill and skill formation; vocational training; education; human capital Firm Core competencies and assets, nexus Capitalist enterprise and node in circuit of contracts, firm size & market power; of capital; market dominance and clusters, networks, value chains, etc monopoly profit; place in world market; Capital Assets to be valorized in given timeplace, profits available to invest Capital in general available to allocate to any (un)productive purposes Knowledge Human capital, R&D, tech transfer, incremental or radical innovation Abstract labour; general intellect; IPR as fictitious commodity State Efficient solution to coordination problems; focus of stakeholder pressure to enhance competitiveness Separation of market and state is problem for accumulation, ditto, single world market vs plurality of states Abstract labour; value theory of labour; socially necessary labour time Regulation Approach Concepts • Generally analyzed in terms of five dimensions: – Wage relation (including capital-labour compromise, social as well as individual wage) – Enterprise form and competition (including source of profits, relations among sectors, corporate governance) – Money and credit forms (hierarchies, national monies, international currencies, currency pyramids, etc) – State (institutionalized compromise, forms of governance) – International regimes and modes of adhesion • These structural forms are hierarchically ordered. They could be complementary (stability) or one form could dissolve coherence, produce crisis, or effect a transition Structural Form Main Features Impact on Mode of Regulation Impact on Accum. Regime Forms of competition Acute competition among numerous and various entities (firms, provinces, localities) Tendency to constantly declining production costs and prices Driving force of accumulation Wage-labour nexus • Dual status (rural/urban) • Balkanized and serialized • Absence of own collective organization Strong influence of the large pool of rural workers on competitive wage formation Unbalanced income distribution: low and declining wage share MonetaryDialectic between large-scale credit regime decentralization and need for control at macro-economic level Fine-tuning in reaction to quickly evolving domestic/international economy Tool to sustain and manage a high growth regime State/ economy nexus • Pragmatic and anticipatory central state • Multi-level complex governance High reactivity to emerging disequilibria Periodic reconfiguration of institutional forms International regime Selective insertion: • Constraints on FDI • Control of external current account • Specific domestic norms Exchange rate is a key political variable, plus domestic credit, in smoothing external shocks Trade surplus is result of domestic imbalances in production/ Demand Other Analyses of Asian Capitalism Analysing Growth Regimes • Regimes have different patterns of economic forms: each form can be a principal or secondary site of institutional and spatio-temporal fixes; primary and secondary aspects change between regime en régulation and regime in crisis • One way to use regulation approach is to consider how different hierarchies of structural forms are formed, what are the specific features of particular forms, whether the dominant form is basis of complementarities with other forms, or has decomposition effects. • Adopting RA (including Amsterdam as well as Parisian variants) points to modes of adhesion in world market Institutional fixes • Institutional fix: complementary set of institutions that, via institutional design, imitation, imposition, or chance evolution , offers provisional, partial, and relatively stable solution to co-ordination problems involved in economic, political, or social order (e.g., an accumulation regime) • Historical institutionalism often proposed as suitable for analysing genesis of institutional fixes and their effects • From a strategic-relational perspective, institutions are not neutral but involve specific biases, favouring some actors, alliances, identities, interests, projects, spatiotemporal horizons, etc Spatio-Temporal Fix • An institutional fix that offers provisional, partial, and relatively stable solution (in given parametric limits) to coordination problems of economic, political, or social order • It sets spatial and temporal boundaries in which structural coherence (and, so, institutional complementarities) of a given order (here, an accumulation regime) are secured • It externalizes material and social costs of securing coherence beyond spatial, temporal, and social boundaries of this STF fix by displacing and/or deferring them • Even within these boundaries, some social forces forces are marginalized, excluded, or subject to coercion social and political blowback “at home” as well as “abroad” Variegated Capitalism in World Market • Break with pre-given logic of world system and study its more open-ended logic, which changes as modes of integration of world system change • Break with the parsimony of Hall/Soskice approach and consider other varieties plus their interaction with other (sub-)types of capitalism and the mutual, often asymmetrical, constraints that this imposes on each • One way to do this is via analysis of variegated capitalism in emergent, changing world market that may exist in shadow of a dominant “variety” Variation versus Variegation Varieties of Capitalism Variegated Capitalism Distinct (families of) local, regional, national models seen as rivals on same scale or terrain for same stakes Possible complementarities (or not) in wider division of labour in a tendentially singular, global but variegated capitalism Describe the forms of internal coherence of distinct VoC on false assumption that they can and do exist in relative isolation from each other Zones of relative stability linked to instability in or beyond national spaces in a complex ecology of accumulation regimes, modes of regulation, spatio-temporal fixes Varieties of Capitalism Variegated Capitalism Study temporal rhythms and horizons of VoC as internal, specific, short- or mediumterm, unrelated to long-term global dynamic of capital Analyse costs imposed on other spaces and/or future generations by uneven capacities to displace or defer contradictions, conflicts, and crisis-tendencies, All varieties are equal and, if one is more “productive” or “progressive”, it could and should be copied, exported, or even imposed elsewhere Some varieties are more equal than others, with neo-liberalism tending to ecological dominance. Not all economic formations can adopt the dominant model. The German Model • For VoC, Germany is the exemplar of Rhenish capitalism (Albert) or coordinated market economy (Hall/Soskice) – Limited role of financial markets compared to Hausbanken – Emphasis on coordination through sectoral and regional associations and networks of firms – Ordoliberal social market economy rather than neoliberal market economy – Multiple stakeholders rather than emphasis on delivering shareholder value – Less flexible labour markets, more emphasis on reskilling “Das Modell Deutschland” • Virtuous circle of economic (growth, competitiveness), social (social integration, low unemployment), and political (crisis management) factors • Facilitated by export-oriented, neo-mercantilist German growth model, i.e., its insertion into European and world markets, based on specialization in high quality diversified production, capital goods, and, especially, capital goods for producing capital goods • Related to hierarchy and core-periphery relations in international division of labour Space-Time Fixes and World Market • World market is not seamlessly integrated through trade but develops in uneven and combined manner • It is marked by temporary zones of relative stability and instability linked to unequal capacities to displace or defer basic contradictions, crisis-tendencies, and conflicts • Associated STFs have mutually reinforcing set of structural, institutional, and organizational forms, are key aspects of competitiveness, and shape spatio-temporal rhythms • Yet uneven development also disrupts established spatiotemporal fixes and associated identities, subjectivities, modes of calculation, spatio-temporal horizons of action Interim Summary - I Neither world system nor VoC but ‘variegated capitalism’ – incomplete, provisional, and unstable, economic order based on the co-existence, structural coupling, asymmetrical influences, and co-evolution of diverse, but dynamically compossible, accumulation regimes and modes of regulation as these exist in timeplace and/or in spatial flows Interim Summary - II • Coupling does is does not entail a singular logic with unique directionality at the global level– it excludes it! • Explore VarCap as a global ecology evolving in the shadow of one (or more) dominant ‘VoC’ with a distinctive logic • Can also be applied fractally to sub-global spaces (e.g.,, North Atlantic, East Asia, EU) but note world market as wider context Global Shadow of Neo-Liberalism Shadow results from the greater influence of finance-dominated accumulation in neo-liberal economies, from the ‘ecological dominance’ of such economies in world market, from general place of finance in global circuits, from rolling out of specific forms of competition law based on neoliberal view of market, and from other, more geopolitical factors The Shadow of Neo-Liberalism • The shadow cast by neo-liberal market coordination results from relative predominance of finance-led accumulation in neo-liberal economies in world market and from place of financial capital more generally in global circuits of capital • Growing separation of financial from productive capital due to pursuit of neo-liberalism on a global scale • Dominance of financial capital reflects hyper-development of factors linked to overall ecological dominance of capital • But financial capital can’t escape constraints imposed by the continued primacy of production within the overall circuit of capital (to believe otherwise leads to financial fetishism) EU in Shadow of Neo-Mercantilism Shadow results from relative weight of export-led growth in the “Modell Deutschland”, from ‘ecological dominance’ of German economic Grossraum in European Economic Space, esp. Eurozone, from institutional flaws in design of Euro (cf. those in Bretton Woods), and from Germany’s hegemonic position in EU and wider EES What about China as Number 2? • Ecological dominance involves asymmetric interdependence with negative and positive effects. • Catastrophic symbiosis of US and PRC economies: US over-consumption, Chinese overproduction. • Cheap labour and cheap currency were initial basis of Chinese export-led growth; moving from catch-up to innovation-led growth. • China’s trade-investment regime and inter-regional competition leads TNCs to over-invest in China relative to local/global absorption capacity Chimerica • Largest economic space in the world economy is Chimerica, i.e., the structurally coupled, co-evolving interdependence between neo-liberal US economy and competition-led multi-spatial state corporatism of PRC • Some have seen this as mutually beneficial benign but it could also be seen as site of pathological codependence • An interesting question is how long this relation can be sustained before it becomes incompossible • Similar analyses are possible for other international or transnational relations (e.g., Chindia, Eurozone, CanadaUSA-Mexico, North East Asian regional integration) And what, pray, is incompossibility...? • Compossibility and incompossibility are key principles in natural theology and critical realism alike: Not everything that is possible is compossible • Compossibility: different (sets of) social relations do or could co-exist for a time in the same spatio-temporal matrix • Incompossibility: (sets of) social relations that may exist independently of each other in different spatio-temporal matrices (based on theoretical first principles and/or on empirical observation) cannot co-exist in the same matrix • Both concepts must be studied relationally and over time: allow for super- and subordination, complementarities, zones of indifference, compensating cycles within larger periods..... Modalities of Relational Compossibility Impossible as Element Incompossible as set member Benign/Neutral Compossibility (sustainable) Possible as Element Compossible as set member Incompossible as set member Pathological Compossibility (unsustainable) Latent Incompossibility How to interpret this figure • Not everything that is possible is compossible • A set of elements that are individually possible viewed in isolation and can be combined in a single possible world in a given spatio-temporal matrix are compossible in this regard (e.g., actually co-existing, relatively durable VoCs) • A set of such elements that can’t be combined in a single possible world in a given spatio-temporal matrix are incompossible in this regard (empty cells in VoC grid) • Some compossible sets comprise mainly complementary elements and are stable/adaptive; others include major contradictory elements that are destabilizing in long run Variegated world market in crisis. The integration of the world market generalizes capital’s contradictions Conclusions • Global crisis in variegated capitalism in world market organized in shadow of neo-liberalism, with many variations that are remaking uneven development • In the EU, we are seeing a crisis of variegated capitalism organized in the shadow of Modell Deutschland (which is not a classic instance of neo-liberalism) but nonetheless dependent for growth dynamic of world market • There is pathological co-dependency of US and PRC in world market (but no formal framework or regime); and pathological compossibility of German model and Club Med economies inside non-adaptive EU regime References Bryan, D. and Rafferty, M. (2006) Capitalism with Derivatives: a Political Economy of Financial Derivatives, Capital and Class. Basingstoke: PalgraveMacmillan Crotty, J. (1985) ‘The centrality of money, credit and financial intermediation in Marx's crisis theory: an interpretation of Marx's methodology’, pp 4582, in S. Resnick and R. Wolff, eds, Rethinking Marx, Brooklyn: Autonomia Minsky, H.P. (1986) Stabilizing an Unstable Economy, New Haven: Yale University Press Palley, T.I. (2009) A Theory of Minsky Super-Cycles and Financial Crises, IMK Working Paper no. 11, Düsseldorf: Hans-Böckler Stiftung Perez, C. (2002) Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital. The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages, Cheltenham: Elgar. Rasmus, J. (2010) Epic Recession, London: Pluto Reinart, C. and Rogoff, K. (2008) This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton: Princeton University Press The Chimera • An animal with two or more different populations of genetically distinct cells that originated in different zygotes; each cell population keeps its own nature and the resulting animal is a mixture of tissues. • In Greek mythology, a chimera is a fire-breathing shemonster usually represented as a composite of a lion, goat, and serpent. • More generally, an imaginary monster made up of grotesquely disparate parts • This can be seen as a metaphor for variegated capitalism in the world market
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