Territorial Scenarios and Visions for Europe (ET2050)
ET2050
SURVEY ON LIKELY TRENDS FOR BASELINE - RESULTS
Purpose: Reporting results of the Survey held with the Scientific
Community attending at the Aalborg ESPON Open Seminar (June 2012)
Version: 2
Date: 8 January 2013
Author: Valérie Biot
Revision: LP
Status: Final
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Territorial Scenarios and Visions for Europe (ET2050)
ESPON Open Seminar / Aalborg, 13th-14th June 2012: Scientific workshop
During Aalborg ET2050 scientific workshop, a survey on perceptions on present state and
baseline trends for EU territory was distributed to participants to ESPON seminar. The
answers to this survey were analysed both in a quantitative and qualitative ways. It is
interesting to compare the answers, as the qualitative way allows a much more nuanced
understanding and fine tuning of the opinion of the respondents. E;g., most importantly, in
several cases, the ‘disagreement’ was more about a different understanding of the survey,
which was about baseline trends: the respondents wanted to disagree with the values which
were presented, and wanted to propose other paths to avoid those dramatic trends, but they did
not disagree that the trends presented were actually the baseline trends. Having this in mind,
in future, there could be a box also for potential proposal to ‘escape the baseline’, making
more clear what the ‘business as usual is’, and what could change it.
1. I respond the questionnaire with my first impressions as a Policy-analyst [ ] / Expert [ ]
2. I work in the Public Administration [ 21 ], University [ 22] or Consultant [ 3 ]
Name (optional) ………….…………………………………………………………………..
Email address (optional) ….………………………………………………………………….
Qualitative:
27 respondents, 12 from public administration ‘PA’, 15 from University ‘U’/consultant
Quantitative:
46 respondents: 21 from public administration ‘PA’ , 25 from University ‘U’/consultant
Towards multiple-speed
Europe
Increasing Urbanisation
Growing disparities
Decarbonisation only in
the very long term
No economic structural
transformations
0%
20%
40%
Agree
60%
80%
100%
Disagree
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Territorial Scenarios and Visions for Europe (ET2050)
QUESTION 1
1) European national economies will not be able to adjust to structural transformations in the
short term
The current economic crisis will still last for a number of years, increasing the gap between more
and less developed regions in Europe, and reducing the level of trade between European countries
while increasing the trade of each Member State with the rest of the World.
I absolutely agree [ ]
Comments:
I mostly agree [ ]
I rather disagree [ ]
I strongly disagree [ ]
Level of agreement with stated trend:
Qualitative comments:
Respondents ‘PA’
Quite extensively, respondent mostly agree with the first part of the sentence ‘curent
economic crisis will last for a number of years, increasing the gap between more and less
developped regions in Europe, especially taking in mind increasing gap between nat/reg
GDPs. (a solution ?: slower growth and less ambitous objectives ?). One comment is a bit
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Territorial Scenarios and Visions for Europe (ET2050)
more optimistic, and hope that ‘improved, more realistic and oriented results cohesion
policies’ could contribute to moderate the mentioned trends.
One comment is a bit different : this should not be named ‘crisis’ anymore, Eu will be on
going through necessary structural adjustment and transformation, and it could be the
opportunity to move towards another type of development (see also question 2), more
innovative, with different indicators of success (see question 3).
Almost all desagree with the second part of the sentence : they do not think that this will
reduce the level of trade between European countries.
The third part of the sentence : increase ‘bilateral’ trade of each MS with rest of the world
could become a reality (in particular with BRIC), as nationalist trends develop instead of
european solidarity and policies. Nevertheless, in this case, strong divergence could exist
between MS, due to their level of development. Also, energy scarcity could limit this trend.
Respondents ‘U’
9 respondents rather agree that national egoisms will dominate the scene. European cohesion
policy lack strong instrument, and sectoral policies are still territorially blind. As PA
respondents, they nevertheless differentiate the three sections of the phrase: they do not think
that the level of trade between MS will reduce. Concerning relations with the rest of the
world, they will any way increase, but in different way according the MS level of
development, ao level of public investments which in general will have a ‘cost cutting’ trend.
Also, the word ‘Europe’ is ambiguous as the diagnostic could be true for EU, but not for the
neighbouring countries. Furthermore, the crisis is not only economic, but also demographic,
and related to environment and energy.
6 respondents do not agree with the assumptions:
- the impact of the current crisis will not be the main driving forces of economic
performance in the future, but other factors, like demography;
- the economic crisis will last, but it will rather decrease the absolute gap values of GDp
per inhabitant between regions (eg, some catching up regions actually benefit in
relative terms);
- eliminating distance and barriers will increase amount of interregional trade;
- growing disparities could develop, but it could imply increase of trade between MS in
a more multi directed manner.
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Territorial Scenarios and Visions for Europe (ET2050)
QUESTION 2
2) Europe will become decarbonised only in the very long term
Decarbonisation will be a slow process lasting for a number of decades. Renewable sources and
more efficiency on the distribution and use of energy will reduce the energy-intensity and carbonintensity of the economy, but fossil fuels will still be the most important energy source in the coming
decades and the energetic dependency of European countries will still increase. Continuous
increases of energy prices are expected.
I absolutely agree [ ]
Comments:
I mostly agree [ ]
I rather disagree [ ]
I strongly disagree [ ]
Level of agreement with stated trend:
Qualitative comments:
Respondents PA:
8 respondents agree with the assumption, and complement it with the following comments:
- environmental policies could mild bad effects, but they are to weak and too slow;
- a strong gap between MS could also be demonstrated with respect to dependency to
fossil fuels (less developed-poor/ innovative-rich);
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Territorial Scenarios and Visions for Europe (ET2050)
-
a solution through nuclear power has too many negative aspect;
a solution ?: slower growth and more realistic objectives to reduce NRJ consumption
and give more time to find alternative solution.
4 respondents disagree:
- decarbonisation will still be slow in the next ten years, but then there will be a real
development of renewable NRJ sources due to current innovation. This trend will be
reinforced by the substantial increase of fuel prices
- there could be a gap between MS which have economic room of manoeuvre for
investment, and the rest. In this respect, one respondent underlined the importance of
moving away from fossil fuel for climate change, but also for economic, social and
environmental reasons.
Respondents U:
All respondents agree with the assumptions and add the following comments:
- gaz (and nuclear) lobby(ies) could block efforts to decarbonised and use new
innovative technology;
- the impact of public investment cost cutting will have a negative effect on innovative
/alternative technology research and use, and important difference (gap) between MS ,
but also between different types of territories inside MS (urban, rural) will also
develop in this respect;
- territories which will target renewable NRJ and efficiency through coherent policy
decision could escape the future NRJ trap (increase of NRJ price). This could be a new
basis for regional competitiveness;
- transport network should also be enhanced.
3 add some nuances:
- to decarbonise in the next 10-20 will be difficult, but by then the peak oil will increase
the price so much that there will be a collapse of consumptions, may be associated
with local grids of NRJ;
- dependance on fossil fuel could decrease more rapidly if constraining NRJ policies
and high cost of NRJ are combine. Also, nuclear power could be use by some MS in a
transition period;
- whatever the type of NRJ, the price will raise.
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Territorial Scenarios and Visions for Europe (ET2050)
QUESTION 3
3) Growing disparities in Europe
Disparities will grow in Europe. Social inequalities at local or regional level will become larger.
Public support to less developed regions and neighbourhoods will become scarcer and will produce
limited, sometimes even contradictory, effects.
I absolutely agree [ ]
Comments:
I mostly agree [ ]
I rather disagree [ ]
I strongly disagree [ ]
Level of agreement with stated trend:
Qualitative comments
General comment: most of the respondent do not understand what ‘contradictory effects of
limited public support’s mean.
Respondents PA
8 respondents agree with the assumptions, and add the following comments:
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Territorial Scenarios and Visions for Europe (ET2050)
-
as long as the success and progress of Eu strategies will be measured by GDP as the
main focus, social, human and natural capital will decline;
inequalities and disparities are growing at all level. To provide services in regions
loosing inhabitants is becoming more an more expensive.
4 respondents do not agree:
- socio-eco inequalities will diminish, but tensions between groups will grow;
- disparities may slowly decrease, it also depend strongly on the way they are measured;
- increasing the role of knowledge and innovation should be very influent to stop
disparities growth.
Respondents U
13 respondents agree, and add the following comments:
- Current neoliberal trends will dramatically increase disparities;
- the process will not be equal in all countries, peripheral areas and external Eu
countries could suffer more. Accessibility might become a key factor to determine the
extent of disparities;
- public support will lower in general;
- disparities will become greater between south and North, and diminish between West
and East (East is managing better to get out of the crisis, and is more stable for
investment);
- disparities will also grow between people everywhere, with a strong diminution of Eu
middle class, and growth of uneven distribution of wealth;
- the main driver here is (again) more demographic than economic. Regions unable to
keep and/or attract young workers will quickly decline, despite good economic
performance at present time.
One respondent ‘disagrees’ (with no further explanation), but agrees that Eu is at a crossraod,
and if right decision are not taken, the assumptions could become reality.
Another respondent disagrees, and focuses on intelligent policy decisions which could be
taken to avoid this assumptions to become true. Disparities could reduce if: there is a focus on
welfare instead of GDP to identify disparities, then to focus on a checklist of those disparities
to be eliminated, and eventually, a mechanism of disparities survey should be elaborated in
time and space.
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Territorial Scenarios and Visions for Europe (ET2050)
QUESTION 4
4) Increasing urbanization in Europe
Territorial patterns will be heterogeneous and diverse in a general tendency towards more relaxed
land regulations, especially in less developed regions. Increasing land occupation and increasingly
mixed urban and rural uses.
I absolutely agree [ ]
Comments:
I mostly agree [ ]
I rather disagree [ ]
I strongly disagree [ ]
Level of agreement with stated trend:
Qualitative comments
there is a general misunderstanding on the wording in this question:
the word ’urbanisation’ which is in the title could be mostly understood as concentration and
densification on urban agglomerations. Another wording should be develop to address the
type of ‘rurbanisation’ and sprawl process which are expressed in the text of the assumptions,
and could be understood as contradictory with ‘urbanization’.
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Territorial Scenarios and Visions for Europe (ET2050)
So even those who ticked ‘agree’ are not all agreeing with the assumption, some agree with
the title understood as to be in contradiction with the assumption. In the same line, it is not
clear what those who ticked ‘disagree’ meant really.
Respondents PA
Some respondents agree with the assumptions, and add the following comments:
- this trend (rurbanisation, sprawl) is already at work in some countries (Italy,
Netherlands,’less developed regions’ …a.o to facilitate quick and easy implementation
of (foreign) investments);
- policies must be introduced to stop this trends, also in relation with resource efficiency
strategy.
Several respondents agree with the title, but not with the assumptions:
- ‘urbanization’ will increase, through a densification and concentration in urban areas:
urbanization as trends towards agglomeration – not rurbanisation and sprawl- will continue.
Impact of the crisis could help in this sense, reverting a trend of more relaxed land
regulations.
Respondents U
As it is pointless to indicate here if they agree or not, due to the potential contradiction
between the title and the assumptions, we only quote the comments:
-
-
Urbanisation of some areas will intensify, but also segments of population will prefer
to live in ‘communities’, self sustainable, rural urban, local production and
consumptions;
more urbanisation will also come with more polarisation;
the size of the cities have a strong impact on quality of life and competitiveness;
liberalisation and decline of land use rules will be strong in coastal areas, in contrary,
in NWE rules will remains, and cities will become more compact.
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Territorial Scenarios and Visions for Europe (ET2050)
QUESTION 5
5) Towards a multiple speed Europe
There will not be a deep reform of European governance structures towards federalism, but limited
adjustments. There will be a general move towards different levels of political integration between
countries in a multiple speed Europe.
I absolutely agree [ ]
Comments:
I mostly agree [ ]
I rather disagree [ ]
I strongly disagree [ ]
Level of agreement with stated trend:
Qualitative comments
Respondents PA
8 agree respondents agree, and add the following comments:
- there is no political will to go further than the present type of collaboration, but this is
seen as sufficient by some respondent, and
as leading to a disaster by others
- also, the multiple speed Europe is understood as positive by some respondents in the
sense of ‘place based’ adapted approach, but still with the need of a certain Eu unity.
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Territorial Scenarios and Visions for Europe (ET2050)
Within the 4 respondents ticking ‘disagree’, 2 do actually agree that the assumption is correct,
but disagree with the idea of the assumptions, and call for political will to change this trend.
The other 2 ‘disagree’ comments underline:
- that all the element of the assumptions are not necessary connected,
- that the current trend to multiple speed Europe could be stopped because of widening
globalisation process
Respondents U:
15 respondents agree, and add the following comments:
- social effects will be terrible,
- a long term process,
- Eu may collapse,
- some hope on a bank European system, really integrated, but still at the same time
multiple and diverse Eu will continue. New Eu members will need new support and
source of growth (potential partnership with neighbouring countries?);
- State sovereignty will remain a key driver;
- rich and ‘old’ MS from North will try to break the Eu area to gather the ‘competitive
part’; but this could be a mistake in the long term, as South countries which will
develop relations with neighbouring countries, could be the most competitive after a
20 years period of difficulty;
- governance is a key issue for the future of Europe, but a common understanding of
what is governance, a.o. federalism, should be clarified.
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