NEWS RELEASE
Public Views on the NDP Leadership, April 2015
MANITOBANS THINK NDP WILL LOSE WITH SELINGER
Two-In-Five (40%) Think NDP Erred By Keeping Selinger as Leader;
Similar Number (42%) Believe NDP Now Less Likely to Win in 2016
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Winnipeg – A significant number of Manitobans are questioning the collective wisdom
of New Democratic Party members, as a new Probe Research Inc. survey conducted
for the Winnipeg Free Press shows that two-in-five Manitoba adults think the NDP made
the wrong decision by keeping Greg Selinger as party leader and premier.
Forty percent of those surveyed indicated that party members made the wrong choice
by sticking with Mr. Selinger, with 33 percent stating that they think the party made the
correct decision by confirming Mr. Selinger’s leadership last month. Seven percent said
the party’s choice of leader makes no difference, while one-in-five (20%) had no
opinion or refused to say whether NDP members made the right decision.
Even though Manitobans were most likely to think the NDP made a mistake by keeping
Mr. Selinger, the majority of Manitobans who currently support the NDP believe that
their preferred party made the right decision (58%, versus 27% of NDP supporters who
think keeping Selinger was the wrong choice).
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When those who voted for the NDP in 2011 are factored in, however, the results are
mixed: 41 percent of those who voted NDP in 2011 think the NDP made the right
choice, compared to 40 percent who think the party erred by keeping Mr. Selinger.
Public Views on the NDP Leadership Choice
NDP2. “Do you think the NDP made the right choice or the wrong choice by keeping Premier Greg Selinger as
party leader?”
Total
100%
NDP supporters - March 2015
Voted NDP in last election
80%
58%
60%
40%
41%
40%
40%
33%
27%
20%
20%
12%
7%
2%
15%
3%
0%
Wrong choice
Right choice
Depends/
doesn't matter
Unsure
Base: Manitoba Residents
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Assessing The NDP’s Chances With Mr. Selinger In 2016
Meanwhile, 42 percent of Manitobans also believe that the NDP is less likely to win the
next election with Mr. Selinger as leader. A slightly smaller proportion of those surveyed
(37%) indicated that the party’s choice of leader makes no difference in terms of the
NDP’s likelihood of winning the next election. Only one-in-ten (11%) believe the NDP are
more likely to defeat the Progressive Conservatives and Liberals in the next election with
Mr. Selinger at the helm. Ten percent were unsure or did not respond.
Current NDP supporters were slightly more optimistic about their party’s chances of
winning the 2016 provincial election with Mr. Selinger at the helm (19% versus 11%
province-wide). However, more than four-in-ten NDP supporters said that their choice of
leader makes no difference (42%), with 33 percent indicating that they are less likely to
win with Mr. Selinger as their party’s chief.
NDP Chances of Re-Election
NDP1. “Recently, members of Manitoba’s New Democratic Party voted to keep Greg Selinger as the leader of
their party and premier of Manitoba. Mr. Selinger will now lead the party in the next provincial election.
Regardless of which party you may end up supporting, do you think that by choosing Greg Selinger to stay on as
party leader the NDP is more likely to win the next provincial election, less likely to win or does it not make a
difference?” (n=1,005)
Makes no
difference,
37%
Less likely to
win, 42%
Unsure, 10%
More likely to
win, 11%
Base: Manitoba Residents
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Other highlights of the survey included:

Not surprisingly, more than one-half of PC supporters think the New Democrats
made a mistake by confirming Selinger’s leadership (54%, compared to 26% who
think they made the right choice). Liberal supporters were also more likely to
think keeping Mr. Selinger as NDP leader was the wrong decision (44% versus 29%
who thought keeping Mr. Selinger as leader was the correct call).

Similarly, PC supporters were less likely to think the NDP can win the next election
with Mr. Selinger (55% versus 29% who think it makes no difference and just 7%
who think they are more likely to win with Mr. Selinger at the helm).

Interestingly, First Nations and Métis Manitobans were more likely to say the party
made the right choice by keeping Mr. Selinger as leader (44% versus 32% among
non-indigenous Manitobans).

Those who were more likely to think the New Democrats made the wrong
decision by keeping Mr. Selinger included:

o
Adults over the age of 35 years (48% each among those aged 35-54 and
those aged 55 years and over versus 25% among those aged 18-34 years).
o
Those in higher-income households (52% among those earning more than
$100,000/year versus 33% among those earning less than $30,000
annually).
o
Those with a university or college degree (45% versus 33% among those
with a high school diploma or less).
Similarly, those who were more likely to think the NDP has a diminished chance of
winning the next election with Mr. Selinger as leader included:
o
Older adults (51% of those aged 55 years and over and 48% of those
aged 35-54 years versus 28% among those aged 18-34 years).
o
Those from higher-income households (52% of those earning more than
$100,000/year versus 29% among those earning less than $30,000
annually).
o
Non-indigenous Manitobans (43% versus 29% among First Nations and
Métis citziens).
o
Those living in southwest Winnipeg (56% versus 30% among those living in
the city’s Core area).
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This province-wide survey was designed and conducted by Probe Research Inc. via telephone
interviews conducted between March 17th and April 1st, 2015 among a random and representative
sampling of 1,005 Manitoba adults. With a sample of 1,005, one can say with 95 percent certainty
that the results are within +/- 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult
population of Manitoba had been interviewed. The margin-of-error is higher within each of the
survey’s population sub-groups. Modified random-digit dialing was used to ensure that all Manitoba
adults would have an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey. Minor statistical
weighting has been applied to this sample to ensure that the age and gender balance correspond
with the province as a whole.
For more information on this survey, please contact:
Curtis Brown,
Vice-President,
Probe Research Inc.
Suite 850-125 Garry Street,
Winnipeg, Manitoba R3C 3P2
Tel.: (204) 926-6563
Cell: (204) 250-7410
E-mail: [email protected]
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