Alternatives Overview Real Estate and Private Assets Update Presented by: Rodney Lumpkin Portfolio Manager Alternative Investment Strategies Group Alternative Investments Overview Alternative investments offer a diversified source of alpha Return Enhancement Alternatives Public Markets Private Equity Special Situations Structured Credit Hedge Funds Real Estate Commodities Real Assets US Large Cap Equity US Small Cap Equity Non-US Equity Low Volatility Equity US High Yield Bonds Non-US Bonds REITs Risk Reduction Money Market Short and Intermediate Gov’t Bonds Core Fixed Income GNMA Bonds Laddered Bonds (Customized) Long Duration Bonds Inflation Protection Assets Derivatives FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 3 How we create probability distributions and what they mean About Capital Market Assumptions • SEI Investment Management Corporation develops forward-looking, long-term capital market assumptions for risk, return, and correlations for a variety of global asset classes, currencies, interest rates, and inflation. • These assumptions are created using a combination of historical analysis, future market environment expectations and by applying our own judgment. In certain cases, alpha and tracking error estimates for a particular asset class are also factored into the assumptions. • We believe this approach is less biased than using pure historical data, which may be affected by unsustainable trends or permanent material shifts in market conditions. • The probability distribution graphs and / or tables that follow are meant to provide an overview of the range of possible outcomes for a given variable (e.g., returns, pension contributions, expense) for a given asset allocation. • The probability distributions are generated using SEI’s proprietary modeling tool and simulated capital market behavior. • Capital market behavior is simulated for 1,000 possible scenarios based on expected performance of each asset class and reflecting current economic conditions. Capital market assumptions such as return, standard deviation and covariances are inputs into this process, combining with model parameters to create market scenarios. • We use these 1,000 capital market scenarios to create 1,000 output scenarios for each variable being considered. • A 90% confidence interval should be interpreted as 90% of the projected output variables, falling between the 5% and 95% results, based on SEI Capital Market Assumptions. • This projection is hypothetical in nature, does not reflect actual investment results and is not a guarantee of future results. FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 4 Performance characteristics of alternatives compared to traditional investments Traditional Alternatives 80% 68.7% 60% POTENTIAL O U T C OM E S 44.7% 48.4% 47.2% 24.5% 21.4% 2.9% 8.5% 8.0% 9.2% 8.9% 9.4% 3.8% 4.5% -6.4% -7.6% -20% 75th Percentile 16.8% 7.7% 2.7% Good Scenarios (95th Percentile) 25.9% 25.4% 14.0% 0% 48.4% 43.4% 29.5% 20% -15.0% -14.1% -10.4% -18.6% -18.7% -20.9% 7.3% 10.9% 9.0% -8.6% -17.2% -19.4% 6.1% Median (50th Percentile) -7.3% 25th Percentile Poor Scenarios (5th Percentile) -20.0% Core Property Structured Credit Private Equity Special Situations Hedge FoF Emerging Markets Equity Dev'l Int'l Equity Small Mid Cap Disciplined Equity Emerging Markets Debt High Yield Long Corporate Long Duration -29.1% -40% Core Fixed Income RETURN (%) 50.9% 40% Individual weightings are available on request.. Illustrations shown are based on capital market assumptions December 2012; see disclosure at end of presentation for additional detail. *Gross of Fees FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 5 Expected Return Adding alternatives may improve expected portfolio efficiency Expected Risk (Standard Deviation) Global Portfolio with Traditional Investments Global Portfolio with 10% Alternative Strategies I Global Portfolio with 15% Alternative Strategies II Global Portfolio with 20% Alternative Strategies III SEI’s Global Portfolio is comprised of a mixture of major domestic and foreign stock and bond asset classes ranging from 40% equity/60% bond to 100% equity/0% bond. With the addition of the Alternatives Strategies, the allocation to the SEI Global Portfolio is decreased proportionately. Alternatives Strategy I is comprised of 100% SEI Opportunity Fund; Alternatives Strategy II is comprised of 60% Opportunity Fund, 40% Special Situations; and Alternatives Strategy III is comprised of 45% Opportunity Fund, 30% Special Situations and 25% Global Private Assets. Expected return and expected risk values are based on SEI’s Capital Market Assumptions as of 6/18/2014. Please see the Important Information slides for additional information. FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 6 Liquidity analysis 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Portfolio #1 Moderate Return/Risk Low Alts Daily Liquidity Portfolio #2 Higher Return Moderate Alts Quarterly Liquidity Two Year Lock-Up Portfolio #3 Reduced Risk Higher Alts Greater than Two Year Lock-Up Portfolio #1 Moderate Return/Risk Low Alts Portfolio #2 Higher Return Moderate Alts Portfolio #3 Reduced Risk Higher Alts Daily Liquidity 90% 85% 75% Quarterly Liquidity 5% 5% 8% Two Year Lock-Up 5% 10% 12% Greater than Two Year Lock-Up 0% 0% 5% Liquidity Analysis FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 7 SEI alternative assets strategy set Return & Risk + Global Tactical Asset Allocation Long Short Equity Credit Hedging Convertible Bond Hedging Fixed Income Global Macro Multi-Strategy Event Driven PERE – Core + MBS Long/Short Corporate Sector – Stressed Credit Direct Lending Distressed Debt Consumer Sector – BS / ABS Long Short Whole Loan Mortgages Government Sponsored Programs Structured Credit + PE – Venture Capital PE – Buyouts PE – Debt PERE – Value-Added PERE – Opportunistic Real Assets/Infrastructure PE = Private Equity PERE = Private Equity Real Estate High Need for liquidity/diversification benefits Low Proposed allocations, subject to change at manager’s discretion. FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 8 Features of SEI alternative fund offerings SEI Opportunity Fund Expected Risk & Return • Long-term targeted return of 5.0% over cash • 7% standard deviation • • Primary Goal Opportunity Set SEI Special Situations Fund SEI Private Assets Fund SEI U.S. Core Property Fund • Long-term Targeted Return of 7.0% over cash • Long-term targeted return of 12% • Long-term targeted return of 7.00% • 11-12%+ standard deviation • 20% standard deviation • 9% standard deviation Low correlation to public markets • Return enhancement vs. traditional assets • Return enhancement vs. traditional assets • Low correlation to public markets The Fund focuses on managers operating in the following strategies: Equity Hedge, Tactical/Directional, Relative Value and Event Driven, among others. Additionally, there is an emphasis on alpha with limited betas to equity, duration and credit. • The Fund focuses on managers operating in the following strategies: Equity Hedge, Tactical/Directional, Relative Value and Event Driven, among others. Compared to our Opportunity Fund, The Special Situations Fund targets more concentrated directional exposures within a broader opportunity set, including less liquid strategies. • Emphasis on exploiting the market inefficiencies that become available through longer term investment strategies. • The Fund allocates its assets among a variety of real estate managers, is primarily focused on low-leveraged, wellleased, incomeproducing properties in the US, and is designed to generate a current income with reduced correlation to the conventional stock and bond markets. FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 9 SEI Core Property Fund (SEI CPF) First Quarter 2014 Core Property defined Basic sectors • Multi-family – Duplexes, triplexes, multi-unit complexes, etc. • Office – Central business district locations, suburban locations, multi-tenant, single-tenant, etc. • Industrial – Warehouses, distribution centers, manufacturing, research and development centers, etc. • Retail – Traditional malls, strip malls, neighborhood centers, specialty centers, etc. • Other – Specialty sectors, such as self storage, hotels, and land, may be present in relatively small allocations, but are not traditionally classified as core Low leverage • To qualify as a core property, debt levels must be minimal; and typically range from 0% to 40% High occupancy • Core properties are stabilized assets that are fully leased (>85%) at market rates to a diversified mix of high quality tenants with solid credit ratings Quality assets • To maintain occupancy goals, core properties must typically meet competitive standards, such as Class A ranked office buildings and assets that are energy star and/or Leadership in Energy and Environment Design (LEED) certified FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 11 Not all real estate strategies are the same Typically private strategies Expected Return High Public REITs or private strategies Low • • • • • • Stabilized properties Income producing Well-leased Primary markets Lower leverage (0% -40%) Longer holding period (7+ years) • Minimal capital expense requirements (primarily maintenance) Core Low • • • • • • • • Lower occupancy rates Repositioning opportunities Buy and renovate strategies Ownership restructuring / recapitalization Primary and secondary markets Increased leverage (40%70%) Minimal construction Shorter holding period (3-7 years) Value-Added • Distressed owners and / or properties and capital structures • Debt investments • All international and emerging markets • Development / construction • Secondaries • Increased leverage (50%80%) • Shorter holding period (1-5 years) Opportunistic Projected Volatility High For illustrative purposes only. FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 12 Owning core real estate may offer several advantages Potential Benefits Considerations Diversification enhancer Less liquid than public securities / REITs Current income-driven returns Investment experience is location specific Historical inflation hedge Assets have some degree of obsolescence Relatively low risk profile Sensitive to both national and local economies Real / tangible asset vs. financial asset Leverage Correlation Matrix* Return Asset Class Characteristics* 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% NAREIT NPI NPI S&P 500 CPI 0% Barclay’s US Aggregate 5% 10% 15% 20% CPI S&P 500 Barclays US Aggregate NPI 1.00 CPI 0.39 1.00 S&P 500 0.13 0.09 1.00 Barclays US Aggregate -0.15 -0.14 0.18 1.00 NAREIT 0.12 0.16 0.48 0.15 NAREIT 1.00 Volatility *Asset class characteristics and correlation matrix are based on the actual return history of the specific indices from 1978-Q1 to 2013-Q4. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: NCREIF Market Indices Spreadsheet – 4Q13. FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 13 Key differences between private real estate and REITs Private Real Estate REITs Direct ownership in physical property Indirect ownership in property-based securities Low to zero correlation to public markets Moderate to high correlation to public markets Quarterly liquidity, subject to restrictions Daily liquidity Appraisal-based valuations Market based pricing Single source of revenue (rents) Various sources of revenue (rent, development fees, property management fees) Transact at NAV Transact at premium / discount to NAV Limited impact from short-term risk on / risk off stock market fluctuations Distinct impact from short-term risk on / risk off stock market fluctuations Limited public disclosure Detailed public disclosure required FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 14 U.S. property market landscape NCREIF ODCE Vacancy Rate NPI Net Operating Income Growth 8% 12% 6% 11% 4% 10% 2% 9% 0% 7% -4% 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 -2% 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 8% NPI Price Index Current Pricing Environment 8% 7% 6% Transaction Cap Rates 1Q14 4Q13 3Q13 2Q13 1Q13 4Q12 3Q12 2Q12 1Q12 4Q11 3Q11 2Q11 1Q11 4Q10 3Q10 2Q10 1Q10 4Q09 3Q09 2Q09 5% 425 400 375 350 325 300 275 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 9% Current Value Cap Rates Sources: NCREIF ODCE Vacancy Rate is from the NCREIF ODCE Details spreadsheet and is calculated as 1 minus the Occupancy rate; NPI Net Operating Income Growth, Transaction Cap Rates, Current Value cap Rates, and NPI Price Index are from the NCREIF Trends Report and the Index figures are 4-quarter rolling averages. FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 15 Core Property Fund: Positioning and actions Positioning • The Fund currently maintains overweights to the multi- SEI CPF Geographic Allocation family, industrial, and other sectors at the expense of office and retail East 33.0% • Fund-level leverage is at 24.7%, and occupancy is at 93.2% for the quarter, both higher than the corresponding ODCE figures by 330 and 170 basis points, respectively Midwest 9.8% • The Fund remains well diversified through its eight West 36.4% South 20.8% managers, which in total provide exposure to more than 600 individual properties Actions • The Fund received additional commitments of over $85 million for April 1 and instituted a queue that is expected to be drawn over the next three to six months • Current assets under management are just under $1.2 billion • To continue building the Fund and accommodate future inflows, additional commitments were made to several of the existing managers SEI CPF Sector Allocation Multi-Family Office Industrial Retail SEI CPF NPI Other 0% 10% 20% 30% Percent Allocation (%) 40% Sources: SEI, NPI. Based on actual invested position of money drawn by managers and excluding cash; “Other” includes predominantly self-storage, hotel and land. As of 3/31/14. FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 16 Private Assets Fund Defining terms: What are private assets? Private Assets • Long-term investments typically in non-publicly traded companies • Private equity managers take an active and strategic role in the management and oversight of the company in an effort to increase its financial and operational value • Five major sub-asset classes – Venture Capital – Funding for entrepreneurs and the growth of emerging companies – Buyouts – Funding for acquisition or re-capitalization of growth or established companies – Debt – Partnerships that lend to (or purchase the debt of) underlying portfolio companies, rather than purchasing equity for an ownership interest – Real Estate – Active, direct ownership in real estate properties through debt or equity – Real Assets/Infrastructure – Tangible, real property interests in such items as power plants, copper mines, windmills, and toll roads and airports, among other things Challenges • Duration of diversified private asset fund of funds presents challenges to many clients • The asset class entails a relatively long-term lock-up compared to other asset classes • Private assets are often characterized by an exacerbated investment phase whereby capital is called and negative returns persist for the first few years before gains are seen and distributions begin FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 18 Why invest in private assets? Enhanced risk/return • Private assets have out-performed traditional stock and bond investments over the longterm time periods of 10, 15, and 20 years • Adding private assets to a well-diversified portfolio may enhance returns without adding disproportionate risks Diversification • First, the investments targeted are non-public and typically not available through public market investment strategies, thus giving exposure to differentiated areas that often move separately from public markets • Second, in instances where the valuations of non-public, private assets investments are derived from public market inputs and correlation does exist, the quarterly valuation cycle of private assets results in a lagged correlation of approximately six to 18 months, thus giving investors an indirect diversification benefit by smoothing returns – This diversification benefit can also be viewed as accounting/actuarial diversification FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 19 Private assets have a favorable long-term return 1 year 3 year 5 year 10 year 15 year 20 year Cambridge Buyout & Growth 16.4% 14.1% 9.8% 14.3% 12.2% 13.4% Cambridge Venture Capital 15.1% 14.4% 7.5% 8.6% 26.1% 30.1% S&P 500 19.2% 16.2% 11.0% 7.9% 6.3% 7.2% Russell 3000 21.5% 16.6% 11.5% 8.4% 6.8% 7.6% MSCI EAFE 23.7% 8.4% 7.0% 6.3% 5.0% 4.9% Sources: Cambridge Associates, Frank Russell Company, MSCI Inc., Standard & Poor’s, and Thomson Reuters Datastream. Information as of 9/30/2013. FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 20 The “J” curve: An illustration Investment Stage Distribution Stage Investment Stage • Early in the fund’s life, capital is called to invest in portfolio companies and pay expenses. Cash flow is negative during this stage. Some distributions may be made as early opportunities are identified to liquidate holdings. These distributions typically only partially offset capital calls. Distribution Stage • Given time for the underlying investment companies to increase their value and begin liquidity events, the fund’s returns and cash distributions may start to rise quite steeply. Note: These are not actual transactions, but are used for illustrative purposes only. Actual investments and results will vary. FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 21 Cash flow-oriented private assets fund of funds GPA III Fund Overview • Cash-flow oriented private assets fund of funds targeting 10-12 managers and / or co-investments Investments • Approach centers around managers that offer secondary-market buyout, venture, debt and real estate and possibly real assets / infrastructure exposure, as well as venture and buyouts co-investment opportunities • Complementing these funds would be a selection of short-duration debt strategies that typically have two year investment periods followed by three to five years to harvest returns Cash Flow Profile • The expected cash-flow profile of this approach is a faster pace of investment than is typical of most private assets funds of funds: quicker realizations and almost immediate income, earlier than normal distributions, and a very shallow and short j-curve Commitment • Thus, while the stated term of GPA III likely be in excess of 8 years to accommodate the secondary funds, these cash-flow oriented strategies and shorter-term debt and co-investment strategies are expected to result in the bulk of investment activity occurring in 5-7 years All GPA III data and terms are estimated and preliminary as specific terms will only be known upon completion of manager selection. FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 22 SEI GPA III: Illustrative characteristics* Strategy Allocations Sub-Class Allocations Real Estate, 23% Debt, 10% Real Assets/ Infrastructure, 10% Dedicated VC, 25% Debt, 23% Buyouts, 22% RE - NonCore, 5% Secondaries, 60% Venture, 22% ⃰ The percentage allocations serve only as a sample targeted allocation. The Investment Manager may, in its sole discretion, modify such allocations in response to market developments. FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 23 Important Information This presentation is provided by SEI Investments Management Corporation (SIMC), a registered investment adviser and wholly owned subsidiary of SEI Investments Company. The material included herein is based on the views of SIMC. Statements that are not factual in nature, including opinions, projections and estimates, assume certain economic conditions and industry developments and constitute only current opinions that are subject to change without notice. Nothing herein is intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. This presentation should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice (unless SIMC has otherwise separately entered into a written agreement for the provision of investment advice). There are risks involved with investing including loss of principal. There is no assurance that the objectives of any strategy or fund will be achieved or will be successful. No investment strategy, including diversification, can protect against market risk or loss. Current and future portfolio holdings are subject to risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Certain economic and market information contained herein has been obtained from published sources prepared by other parties, which in certain cases have not been updated through the date hereof. While such sources are believed to be reliable, neither SEI nor its affiliates assumes any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information and such information has not been independently verified by SEI. Index returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual fund performance. Index performance returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. SIMC develops forward-looking, long-term capital market assumptions for risk, return, and correlations for a variety of global asset classes, interest rates, and inflation. These assumptions are created using a combination of historical analysis, current market environment assessment and by applying our own judgment. In certain cases, alpha and tracking error estimates for a particular asset class are also factored into the assumptions. We believe this approach is less biased than using pure historical data, which is often biased by a particular time period or event. The asset class assumptions are aggregated into a diversified portfolio, so that each portfolio can then be simulated through time using a monte-carlo simulation approach. This approach enables us to develop scenarios across a wide variety of market environments so that we can educate our clients with regard to the potential impact of market variability over time. Ultimately, the value of these assumptions is not in their accuracy as point estimates, but in their ability to capture relevant relationships and changes in those relationships as a function of economic and market influences. FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 24 Important Information The projections or other scenarios in this presentation are purely hypothetical and do not represent all possible outcomes. They do not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. All opinions and estimates provided herein, including forecast of returns, reflect our judgment on the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. These opinions and analyses involve a number of assumptions which may not prove valid. The performance numbers are not necessarily indicative of the results you would obtain as a client of SIMC. We believe our approach enables our clients to make more informed decisions related to the selection of their investment strategies. For more information on how SIMC develops capital market assumptions, please refer to the SEI paper entitled “Executive Summary: Developing Capital Market Assumptions for Asset Allocation Modeling.” If you would like further information on the actual assumptions utilized, you may request them from your SEI representative. The information contained in this material should be treated as confidential and proprietary to SEI. Distribution of the material(s) or information contained in the material(s) to any person other than the person to whom this material was originally presented to or delivered and those persons retained to advise him or her with respect to SEI is unauthorized, and any reproduction of this material, in whole or in part, or the divulgence of any of its contents, without the prior consent of SEI is prohibited. SIMC is the adviser to the SEI Alternative Funds, for which SEI Investments Distribution Co. (SIDCO), SIMC’s affiliate, serves as placement agent. SIMC and SIDCO are wholly owned subsidiaries of SEI Investments Company. SEI Alternative Funds, with the exception of its structured credit product, are “fund-of-funds”, which means that the fund invests in underlying third party funds. The strategies that the underlying hedge funds pursue may increase the risk of loss. There is no assurance that the objectives of any SEI Alternative Fund will be achieved or that the strategies described herein or implemented in any SEI Alternative Fund will be successful. Alternative investments by their nature involve a substantial degree of risk, including the risk of complete loss of capital and are only appropriate for parties who can bear that high degree of risk and the highly illiquid nature of an investment. Specifically, SEI Alternative Funds, and the funds they invest in, often engage in leveraging and other speculative investment practices that may increase the risk of investment loss, are not required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information to investors, involve complex tax structures and delays in distributing important tax information, are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds, and often charge higher fees. In addition to the normal risks associated with investing, narrowly focused investments typically exhibit higher volatility. Real estate investments are subject to changes in economic conditions, credit risk, and interest rate fluctuations. FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 25 Important Information No person has been authorized to give any information or to make any representation, warranty, statement or assurance not contained in the Memorandum relating to an SEI Alternative Fund and, if given or made, such other information or representation, warranty, statement or assurance may not be relied on. The offering of any SEI Alternative Fund described herein will be made in reliance upon an exemption from registration under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, for offers and sales of securities that do not involve a public offering. No public or other market will develop for the interests. The interests are generally not transferable without the consent of the applicable SEI Alternative Fund and the satisfaction of certain other conditions, including compliance with Federal and state securities laws. Prepared for use at the SEI 2014 Nonprofit Client Symposium, June 19-20, 2014. FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION. 26
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