November 2005
Creativity in Policy-making:
A Case for Context in Foresight
Gordon J. Pace
(joint work with Jennifer Cassingena Harper)
Exchange of Foresight Relevant Experiences among
Small European Enlargement Countries (2001-3)
The eFORESEE Project was a two-year foresight
project funded by the European Union’s Fifth
Framework (FP5) STRATA Programme involving
three accession countries Malta, Cyprus and
Estonia.
eFORESEE explores the potential role of foresight in
innovation policy-development within a small country
context.
The Malta eFORESEE project presents a creative
fusion of innovation and socio-cultural foresight –
highlighting the potential for harnessing the
impact of context for optimum effect.
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Traditional Definition
“Foresight is a systematic, participatory,
future intelligence-gathering and
medium-to-long-term vision-building
process aimed at present-day decisions and
mobilising joint actions.
Foresight arises from a convergence of trends
underlying recent developments in the fields
of ‘policy analysis’, ‘strategic planning’ and
‘future studies’. It brings together key agents
of change and various sources of knowledge in
order to develop strategic visions and
anticipatory intelligence”. (EU FOREN Guide)
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Overview of methods: Focus on Creativity
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Redefining Foresight
1. A set of tools to survey systematically
chances for development and open
options for actions at present to
determine alternative future outcomes.
2. A process – a systematic, participatory,
future intelligence-gathering and
medium-to-long-term vision-building
process.
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Redefining Foresight (2)
3. A group of actors actively and creatively
exploring potential future scenarios to
build a unified vision of alternative
futures.
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Actor-based Foresight
1. A philosophy/approach to life separating
the proactive from the reactive, the pathdependant from the path-breakers.
2. The capacity to contemplate on,
anticipate and cope with the future – a
set of skills which can be taught, but
presumes a mindset open to creative,
proactive and exploratory thinking.
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Actor-based Foresight
1. A philosophy/approach to life separating
2.
Foresight
is
in
the
the proactive from the reactive, the pathdependant
from of
the the
path-breakers.
mindset
actors,
The capacity
to
contemplate
on,
not
of
the
tools
and
anticipate and cope with the future – a
process.
set of skills which
can be taught, but
presumes a mindset open to creative,
proactive and exploratory thinking.
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Context in Foresight
The process happens in a context which
is itself under analysis and its future
evolution explored.
The actors’ mindset is a context which
determines the tools used, and their
effectiveness.
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Context in Foresight
The process happens in a context which
is itself under analysis and its future
evolution explored.
The actors’ mindset is a context which
Explicit socio-economic
determines the tools used, and their
context, traditionally explored
effectiveness.
in Foresight – it is the topic of
the exercise.
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Context in Foresight
The process happens in a context which
is itself under analysis and its future
evolution explored.
The actors’ mindset is a context which
Thistools
context
may
determines the
used,
anddetermine
their
effectiveness. which tools to adopted.
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Context in Foresight
This implicit cultural context
tools may
The processdetermines
happens in how
a context
which
have
to
be
adapted
,
even
reis itself under analysis and its future
thought.
evolution explored.
The actors’ mindset is a context which
determines the tools used, and their
effectiveness.
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Policy Context in Foresight
Foresight’s rationale, tools and approaches have evolved in
response to an advanced large country context with an
existing tradition for rational approaches to innovation and
technology policy.
In Malta, foresight meets an altogether different context: a
small country in transition with very limited resources and no
rational approaches to policy. Policy is not only shaped by
context – it is context-driven. Foresight has a critical role to
play here in breaking path-dependency in policy by liberating
mind-sets and virtuous circles.
Ideally foresight is not merely adapted to the new context but is rather completely re-thought! Hence the case for
creativity in foresight.
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Transition to the EU Context:
Membership Challenge
Opportunities
The (economic, political, military…) security
afforded through membership.
Opportunity to escape from constraints of context
and path-dependency
Faster transition to the knowledge society
Threats
Loss of socio-cultural identity and values
Impact on marginalised groups
Heavy burden of compliance with EU Acquis
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Transition to the EU Context:
Membership Challenge
Opportunities
The (economic, political, military..) security
afforded through membership.
Malta’s
small
size
can
proveof both
Opportunity
to escape
from
constraints
context
and path-dependency
a
threat
and
an
opportunity!
Faster transition to the knowledge society
Threats
Loss of socio-cultural identity and values
Impact on marginalised groups
Heavy burden of compliance with EU Acquis
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The Local Context
Island state, island culture
Small size, small population
Mediterranean, British, Catholic influences
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The Foresight Process Reviewed
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The Foresight Process Reviewed
synthesis
divergence
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The Foresight Process Reviewed
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Foresight’s Role in Policy …
Foresight (Virtuous
Circle)
Systematic approaches to
policy (Rational)
Recording the process
Consensus-building
Long-term vision
Open processes of
governance
Processes for organising
expert and non-expert inputs
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… meets the Maltese Context
Foresight (Virtuous
Circle)
Malta (Vicious circle)
Systematic approaches to
policy (Rational)
Weak tradition of systematic
approaches (Chaos)
Recording the process
Verbal rather than written
Consensus-building
Divisive and individualistic
Long-term vision
Short-term, reactive
Open processes of
governance
Closed systems, clientelism
Processes for organising
Blurring of expert/non-expert
expert and non-expert inputs divide
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Creativity in Foresight:
Creating Strengths in Malta’s Context
Foresight as a tool for achieving turn-around
from vicious to virtuous circles in policy
development
Fusing innovation and socio-cultural foresight
Effective use of macro-scenarios and ICT
Bringing implementation into design
Foresight as timeless ‘live’ dialogue – fusing
with ongoing strategic conversations
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Malta eFORESEE Definition
“The
foresight process involves intense iterative
phases
of
open
reflection,
networking,
consultation, and discussion leading to the joint
refining of future visions and the common
ownership of strategies, with the aim of
exploiting long-term opportunities opened up
through the impact of STI on society …. It is the
discovery of a common space for open
thinking on the future and the incubation of
strategic approaches … in this sense the
foresight process has no beginning or end, since it
builds on previous and ongoing conversations and
consultations and sets in motion learning curves
and other intangible spin-offs which are not
easily captured in short timeframes…”
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Foresight encourages rising above
the accepted norm, and not to
limit the thought process by the
context.
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Foresight encourages rising above
the accepted norm, and not to
limit the thought process by the
context.
However, Foresight is applied
within a socio-economic, cultural
context.
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One way of rising above the
restraining context is by
redesigning thinking tools to
that same context.
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For more information
Websites
http://www.eforesee.info
http://www.mcst.org.mt
Contacts
 [email protected]
 [email protected]
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