CV: PROFESSOR MIKE OAKSFORD, PhD, DSc, FBPsS, FAPS Date of Birth 27th February, 1956 Address Department of Psychological Sciences Birkbeck College University of London Malet Street London, WCIE 7HX UNITED KINGDOM E-mail [email protected] Telephone +44 (0) 020 7079 0879 PREVIOUS APPOINTMENTS 2005Professor of Psychology, Head of Department, Department of Psychological Sciences, Birkbeck College, University of London 1996-2005 Professor of Experimental Psychology, School of Psychology, Cardiff University 1994-1996 Senior Lecturer, Department of Psychology, University of Warwick 1989-1994 Lecturer (B), Department of Psychology, University of Wales, Bangor 1988-1989 Post-Doctoral Research Fellow, Centre for Cognitive Science, University of Edinburgh QUALIFICATIONS DSc. Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Edinburgh, 2001 Ph.D. Centre for Cognitive Science, Faculty of Science, University of Edinburgh, 1989 BA(Hons.) Philosophy and Psychology, St. Cuthbert’s Society, University of Durham, (First), 1985 DISTINCTIONS, AWARDS AND HONOURS 2012 Fellowship of the Association for Psychological Science (FAPS) for “sustained and outstanding distinguished contributions to Psychological Science.” 2001 Doctor of Science (DSc.), University of Edinburgh, for the publication of the book Rationality in an Uncertain World, Psychology Press. 1999 (March) Invited Visiting Professor at the Department of Experimental Psychology, University of Leuven, Belgium. 1999 Fellowship of the British Psychological Society (FBPsS) for “making an outstanding contribution to psychological knowledge.” 1997 (June) Invited Visiting Professor at the Max-Planck Institute for Psychological Research, Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition, Munich, Germany. 1996-2004 Honorary Fellow of the Psychology Department, University of Warwick. 1995 Spearman Medal of the British Psychological Society, for making an outstanding contribution to psychological knowledge during the first 10 years since gaining an undergraduate degree in psychology. 1995 Cognitive Section Award of the British Psychological Society, for the best cognitive psychology journal article of 1994. PROFESSIONAL SERVICES Editing/Editorial Boards 2005 Consulting Editor for Psychological Review (American Psychological Association, USA). 2004 - 2007 Consulting Editor for Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, & Cognition (American Psychological Association, USA). 2002 - 2008 Consulting Editor for Memory and Cognition (Psychonomic Society, USA). 2001 - 2005 Associate Editor for the Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology (A) (Experimental Psychology Society, UK). 1997 Editorial board of Thinking and Reasoning (Psychology Press, UK). Journal Reviews I have reviewed papers for: Acta Psychologica; Applied Logic; Behavioral & Brain Sciences; British Journal of Psychology; Cahiers de Psychologie Cognitive; Canadian Journal of Experimental Psychology; Cognition & Emotion; Cognitive Science; Developmental Science; Erkenntnis; Evolution and Human Behavior; Experimental Psychology; Human Brain Mapping; Journal of the Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers; International Journal of Human Computer Studies; Journal of Child Language; Journal of Decision Making; Journal of Experimental Child Psychology; Journal of Experimental Psychology: General; Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception & Performance; Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory & Cognition; Journal of Language, Logic and Information; Journal of Memory & Language; Linguistics & Philosophy; Memory & Cognition; Mind & Language; Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B; Psychological Bulletin; Psychological Review; Psychological Research; Psychological Science; Psychonomic Bulletin & Review; Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology; Social Studies of Science; Synthese; The Psychologist; Theory & Psychology; Thinking & Reasoning; Trends in Cognitive Sciences Grant Reviewing I have reviewed grants for: National Science Foundation of the USA; The Austrian Science Foundation; The Dutch Fund for Scientific Research; Swiss National Science Foundation; Joint Research Councils Initiative on Cognitive Science and Human Computer Interaction; The Leverhulme Trust; The Economic and Social Research Council (UK); The Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (UK); The Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (UK): Arts and Humanities Research Council (UK). Book Proposals I have reviewed book proposals for: Academic Press, Cambridge University Press, McGraw-Hill, McMillan Press, MIT Press, Oxford University Press, and the Psychology Press. Advisory Roles 1999 Consultant on mood induction procedures for Unilever Research, Colworth Laboratory. 2002 Specialist Advisor for the London School of Economics, Promotions Committee. 2004 External Advisor on Professorial Appointment Panel for Warwick University. 2005 External Assessor on Promotion to Professor for Warwick University. 2005 Consultant on decision making and information search for Qinetiq Research. 2009 International Advisor to the Irish Research Council for Humanities and Social Sciences Advanced Fellowships and Fellowships Scheme. 2009 External Advisor to the University of Kent RAE2008 Review Panel to review the performance of the Department of Psychology. 2010 Member of the ESRC Advanced Quantitative Methods (AQM) Assessment Panel. 2010 Member of the European Science Foundation Pool of Peer Reviewers. 2010 Consultant HoD to the RCUK/AHPD/EPS/BPS Benchmarking Review of UK Psychology. 2010 Consultant on Cognition and Perception to the RCUK/AHPD/EPS/BPS Benchmarking Review of UK Psychology. 2011 International Advisor to the Irish Research Council for Humanities and Social Sciences Advanced Fellowships and Fellowships Scheme. 2011 Member of the ESRC Advanced Quantitative Methods (AQM) Assessment Panel. 2012 External Advisor to the University of Sussex, Psychology Department Periodic Review. 2012 External Advisor to the Royal Holloway, University of London, Psychology Department Periodic Review. 2012 External Advisor on Professorial Appointment Panel for Cardiff University. 2013 International Advisor to the Irish Research Council for Humanities and Social Sciences Advanced Fellowships and Fellowships Scheme. External Examining 1998-2000 External examiner for undergraduate degree programmes for the Department of Experimental Psychology, University of Sussex. Ph.Ds I have been the external examiner for 5 Ph.Ds: Dr. Aureliu Lavric (University of Warwick); Dr. Emanuel Pothos (University of Oxford); Dr. Ivaylo Vlaev (University of Oxford); Dr. Carolyn Rice (Birkbeck College London); Dr. Stelios Lelis (University of Manchester). Conference Organization 2013 London Reasoning Workshop7 2013. 2012 7th International Conference on Thinking (Local Organiser and Conference Committee Chair). Plenary Speakers: Professors Maya BarHillel (Hebrew University, Israel), Jonathan Evans (University of Plymouth, UK), Chris Frith FRS (UCL, UK), Keith Holyoak (UCLA, USA), Phil Johnson-Laird FRS (Princeton, USA), Dan Sperber (Central European University, Budapest), Josh Tenenbaum (MIT, USA). 2011 London Reasoning Workshop6 2011. 2010 London Reasoning Workshop5 2010. 2009 London Reasoning Workshop4 2009. 2008 London Reasoning Workshop3 2008: Festschrift for Jonathan St.B T Evans. 2007 London Reasoning Workshop2 2007: The Psychology of Conditionals. Invited speakers: Professors David O’Brien (New York), Henry Markovits (Montreal), and Valerie Thompson (Saskatchewan). 2006 London Reasoning Workshop1 2006: Festschrift for David Over. Joint organizer with Prof. J. St.B T. Evans (Plymouth). 2006 The Probabilistic Mind: Prospects for Rational Models of Cognition. (Gatsby Centre for Computational Neuroscience, UCL). Invited speakers: Professors Gerd Gigerenzer (Max Planck, Berlin), Josh Tenenbaum (MIT), John Anderson (Carnegie Mellon), and Klaus Fiedler (Heidelberg). (Joint organizer with Prof. Nick Chater [UCL]). 1996 Rational Models of Cognition (University of Warwick). Invited speakers: Professors John R. Anderson (Carnegie Mellon), Richard M. Shiffrin (Indiana), James L. McClelland (Carnegie Mellon) and Robert M. Nosofsky (Indiana). 1992 Neural Computation and Psychology Workshop: Neurodynamics and Psychology (University of Wales, Bangor). Invited speakers: Professors Jean-Pierre Changeux (Institut Pasteur, Paris), Tim Shallice (UCL), Marc Richelle (Liege) and John Taylor (King’s College, London). (Joint organizer with Prof. Gordon D. A. Brown [Warwick]). This was the first in a series of NCPW workshops which still occur biannually. Conference Committees 2001 Conference Program Committee Member for the Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, Edinburgh, Scotland 2002 Conference Program Committee Member for the Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, Fairfax, Virginia, USA. 2007 Conference Program Committee Member for the European Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, Delphi, Greece. 2011 Conference Program Committee Member for the European Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, Sophia, Bulgaria. 2011 2012 2013 Conference Program Committee Member for Formal Epistemology Meets Experimental Philosophy, University of Tilburg, The Netherlands. Conference Program Committee Member for the Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, Sapporo, Japan. Conference Program Committee Member for the Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. ADMINISTRATION University Level 2007 – 2010 Member of the Clerical, Craft, Technical and Related Staff Joint Committee, Birkbeck College, University of London. Oversees HR policy jointly with the Trades Unions. 2006 – 2011 Member of the Nominations Committee, Birkbeck College, University of London. Recommends appointments to College Committees and Co-opted Lay Governors to the Board of Governors. 2006 – 2011 Member of the Finance and General Purposes Committee, Birkbeck College, University of London 2005 – 2011 Academic Governor, Birkbeck College, University of London 2004 – 2005 Chair of the Cardiff University Research Ethics Committee (Only non Pro-VC to chair a University Committee). This committee oversees the work of School RECs across the newly merged institution. 1999 – 2004 Member of the University Personnel Committee, Cardiff University. The committee oversees all human resource issues across the University. 1999 – 2004 Member of the Technicians Re-grading Panel, Cardiff University. Together with Trades Union representatives, this panel assesses applications for re-grading on a yearly basis. Department/School Level 2005 – Head of Department (Birkbeck College London) Chair of the Staff Committee Chair of the Management Committee Chair of the Research Committee (Member of the RAE2008 and REF2014 Working Groups) 1996 – 2004 Chair of the Psychology School Research Ethics Committee (Cardiff University) 1996 – 2005 Chair of the Participant Panel Committee (Cardiff University) 1996 – 2005 Member of the Resources Board (Cardiff University) 1996 – 2005 Member of the Research Committee (Cardiff University) 1996 – 2005 Member of the Professors Committee (Cardiff University) 1997 – 2005 Member of the Promotions Committee (Cardiff University) 1997 – 2005 School Examinations Officer (Cardiff University) RESEARCH STUDENT SUPERVISION Frances Morris Andrea Mumford Simon Moore Joselyn Sellen Nick Perham Adam Corner Stephen Jones Germaine Symons James Vance Chris Brand Ph.D. (1997), The Psychology of Information Selection and Reasoning. Psychology Department, University of Wales, Bangor. Ph.D. (1997), A Mathematical Study of Non-Target Interference Effects in Selective Prehension. Psychology Department, University of Warwick, I was first Supervisor with Prof. Ian Stewart (Maths, Warwick) and with the assistance of Prof. Steve Tipper (Bangor). Ph.D. (2000), The Emotional Modulation of Human Categorization Processes. School of Psychology, Cardiff University. Ph.D. (2002), Schizotypy, Reasoning, and Semantic Memory. School of Psychology, Cardiff University. Ph.D. (2003), The Effects of Anticipated and Experienced Emotion on Deontic Reasoning. School of Psychology, Cardiff University. Ph.D. (2008), A Bayesian Approach to the Slippery Slope Argument. School of Psychology, Cardiff University, Joint with Prof. Ulrike Hahn. Ph.D., (2007-current), Transactions and the Temporal and Probabilistic Discounting of Costs. Department of Psychological Science¸ Birkbeck College London. Ph.D., (2008-current), Bayes Net Models of Source Reliability and Children’s Scientific Reasoning. Department of Psychological Science¸ Birkbeck College London. Ph.D., (2009-current), Negations and Reasoning in Natural Discourse. Department of Psychological Science¸ Birkbeck College London. Ph.D., (2011-current), Causal possibility and Moral Reasoning. Department of Psychological Science¸ Birkbeck College London. RESEARCH GRANTS A theoretical and experimental investigation of human conditional reasoning. (ESRC, £34,000, 10/88 - 10-90). Mike Oaksford, Keith Stenning (Edinburgh). A Bayesian model of human hypothesis testing in Wason’s selection task. (British Academy, £2,300, 9/93 - 3/94) Mike Oaksford, Nick Chater (Edinburgh). Reasoning and Frontal Lobe Dysfunction (University of Wales, Bangor, Research Committee Grant, £2,100, 9/93 - 3/94) Mike Oaksford Negations: Reasoning and representation. (British Academy, £2,300, 3/94 - 9/94) Mike Oaksford Negations: Reasoning and representation. (Leverhulme Trust, £42,885, 7/95 - 6/97) Mike Oaksford Probabilistic models of reasoning: The case of conditional inference. (ESRC, £28,850, 7/95 - 6/96) Mike Oaksford, Dr. Nick Chater (Oxford). Personality disorder, information processing, and social problem solving in offenders (NHS National Programme on Forensic Mental Health R&D, £140,000, 4/04 – 4/07) Mary McMurran, Mike Oaksford, and Jo Sellen (University of Wales Institute, Cardiff). INVITED TALKS Invited Speaker 12/95 Spearman Medal Award Lecture, British Psychological Society, London Conference. 7/96 International Congress of Psychology, McGill University, Montreal, Canada (Invited Symposiast, Organiser: Professor Keith Holyoak). 10/96 International Conference on Thinking, University College London (Invited Symposiast in two Symposia, Organisers: Professor Nick Chater and Professor Keith Stenning). 11/96 ESRC Economic Beliefs and Behaviour Programme. One day workshop on The Odd-One-Out Phenomenon, St. Catherine’s College, University of Oxford. (Organised by Professor Mike Bacharach, Bounded Rationality in Economic Behaviour Unit, Institute of Economics and Statistics, University of Oxford). 2/98 Vancouver Cognitive Science Conference on Commonsense, Reasoning, and Rationality. 1/99 ESRC conference on Decision Making and Reasoning, at the London Guildhall University. 3/99 Workshop on Decision Processes and Individual Differences in Reasoning, University of Plymouth. 7/00 Symposium on The Psychology of Human Reasoning: The States of its Various Arts, BPS Centenary Conference, Glasgow 3/02 Mind & Language Conference on Conditionals, Birkbeck College London. 5/04 Workshop on Conditionals, University of Plymouth. 10/10 Workshop on Bayesian Argumentation, University of Lund, Sweden. 3/12 Keynote Speaker at the 9th Oxford Brain Day on The Thinking Brain, University of Oxford. 9/12 Keynote Speaker at the Biannual Conference of the German Cognitive Science Society, Bamberg, Germany. 9/13 The 8th A. R. Jonckheere Lecture, University College London: “An Integrative Theory of Human Reasoning: Modelling the Physical and Social Worlds”. Invited Seminar Talks (from 1996) 1/96 Chaucer Club, Medical Research Council Applied Psychology Unit, Cambridge. 2/96 Psychology Department, University of Leicester. 10/96 10/96 11/96 2/97 11/98 2/99 3/02 1/03 12/03 12/03 1/08 2/09 1/10 2/11 2/11 10/11 5/12 Psychology Department, University of Reading. Psychology Department, University of Warwick. Psychology Department, University of Sussex. Psychology Department, University of Edinburgh. Department of Experimental Psychology, University of Sussex. Department of Psychology, Birkbeck College, London. Department of Psychology, University of Reading. Department of Psychology, University of Warwick Department of Psychology, University of Manchester Department of Psychology, University of Exeter Human Communication Research Centre, University of Edinburgh Department of Psychology, University of Glasgow Department of Psychology, University of Essex Department of Psychology, University of Kent Department of Psychology, University of Uppsala, Sweden Department of Psychology, University of Durham COGS Seminar, University of Sussex PUBLICATIONS In Preparation Oaksford, M., & Chater, N. (in prep.). Syllogistic reasoning with generalized quantifiers. Harris, A., Hahn, U., & Oaksford, M. (in prep.) Oaksford, M. (in prep.). Psychological theories of deductive reasoning: An introduction. London: Palgrave-Macmillan. In Submission Oaksford, M. (in sub.). Dual processes in explicit and enthymematic conditional reasoning: Its probabilities all the way up. In Press Hahn, U., & Oaksford, M. (in press). The fallacies explained. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Oaksford, M. (in press). Integrative models of reasoning. Thinking and Reasoning. Oaksford, M. (in press). Probabilities and mental models in reflection and simulation in tri-process theory. Thinking and Reasoning. Oaksford, M. (2013). Bayesian argumentation and the pragmatic approach: Comment on Darmstadter. Thinking and Reasoning. 2013 Chater, N., & Oaksford, M. (2013). Programs as causal models: Speculations on mental programs and mental representation. Cognitive Science. doi: 10.1111/cogs.12062 Oaksford, M., & Chater, N. (2013). Dynamic inference and everyday conditional reasoning in the new paradigm. Thinking and Reasoning. doi:10.1080/13546783.2013.808163 Quraishi, S., & Oaksford, M. (2013). Emotion as an argumentative strategy: How induced mood affects the evaluation of neutral and inflammatory slippery slope arguments. In I. Blanchette (Ed.). Reasoning and emotion (pp. 95-118). Hove, Sussex: Psychology Press. Hahn, U., Oaksford, M., & Harris, A. J. L. (2013). Testimony and argument: A Bayesian perspective. In F. Zenker (Ed.). Bayesian argumentation (pp. 15-38). Dordrecht: Springer. Oaksford, M., & Hahn, U. (2013). Why are we convinced by the ad hominem argument?: Bayesian source reliability and pragma-dialectical discussion rules. In F. Zenker (Ed.). Bayesian argumentation (pp. 39-59). Dordrecht: Springer. Hahn, U., Harris, A.J.L., & Oaksford, M. (2013): Rational argument, rational inference. Argument and Computation, 4, 21-35. Oaksford, M. (2013). Quantum probability, intuition, and human rationality. Behavioral & Brain Sciences, 36, 303. 2012 Oaksford, M., Chater, N., & Stewart, N. (2012). Reasoning and decision making. In Frankish, K., & Ramsey, W. (Eds.), The Cambridge handbook of cognitive science (pp. 131-150). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Chater, N., & Oaksford, M. (2012). Normative systems: Logic, probability, and rational choice. In K. Holyoak, & R. Morrison (Eds.), The Oxford handbook of thinking and reasoning (pp. 11-21). Oxford: Oxford University Press. Hahn, U., & Oaksford, M. (2012). Rational argument. In K. Holyoak, & R. Morrison (Eds.), The Oxford handbook of thinking and reasoning (pp. 277-299). Oxford: Oxford University Press. Oaksford, M., & Chater, N. (2012). Dual processes, probabilities, and cognitive architecture. Mind and Society, 11, 15-26. Oaksford, M. (2012). Reasoning. In N. Braisby & A. Gellatly (Eds.), Cognitive psychology (2nd ed.) (pp. 366-392). Oxford: Oxford University Press. 2011 Jones, S., & Oaksford, M. (2011b). Preferences show greater stability for transactions than for gambles in cost discounting. Frontiers in Psychology, 2, 293. doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2011.00293 Oaksford, M., & Chater, N. (2011). The “is-ought fallacy” fallacy. Behavioral & Brain Sciences, 34, 262-263. Chater, N., Goodman, N., Griffiths, T., Kemp, C., Oaksford, M., & Tenenbaum, J. (2011). The imaginary fundamentalists: The unshocking truth about Bayesian cognitive science. Behavioral & Brain Sciences, 34, 194-196. Jones, S., & Oaksford, M. (2011a). Transactional problem content in cost discounting: Parallel effects for probability and delay. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, & Cognition, 37, 739-747. Ali, N., Chater, N., & Oaksford, M. (2011). The mental representation of causal conditional inference: Causal models or mental models. Cognition, 119, 403-418. Oaksford, M. (2011). Putting reasoning and judgement in their proper argumentative place. Behavioral & Brain Sciences, 34, 84-85. Corner, A., Hahn. U., & Oaksford, M. (2011). The psychological mechanism of the slippery slope argument. Journal of Memory and Language, 64, 133-152. Oaksford, M., & Chater, N. (2011). Dual systems and dual processes but a single function. In K. I. Manktelow, D. E. Over, & S. Elqayam (Eds.), The science of reason: A Festschrift for Jonathan St.B. T. Evans (pp. 339-351). Hove, Sussex: Psychology Press. Chater, N., Oaksford, M., Heit, E., & Hahn, U. (2011). Inductive logic and empirical psychology. In D. Gabbay, S. Hartmann, & J. Woods (Eds.), The Handbook of the History of Logic: Inductive Logic (Volume 10) (pp. 553-624), Amsterdam: North Holland. 2010 Chater, N., Oaksford, M., Heit, E., & Hahn, U. (2010). Bayesian models of cognition. WIREs Cognitive Science, 1, 811-823. McMurran, M., Oaksford, M., & Christopher, G. (2010). Does social problem solving mediate the relationship between personality traits and personality disorders? An exploratory study with a sample of male prisoners. Personality and Mental Health, 3, 180-192. Oaksford, M., & Chater, N. (2010). Causation and conditionals in the cognitive science of human reasoning. Open Psychology Journal, 3, 105-118. (Special issue on Causal learning beyond causal judgment, Edited by J. C. Perales, & D. R. Shanks). Oaksford, M., & Chater, N. (Eds.) (2010). Cognition and conditionals: Probability and logic in human thinking. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Oaksford, M., & Chater, N. (2010). Cognition and conditionals: An introduction. In M. Oaksford & N. Chater (Eds.), Cognition and conditionals: Probability and logic in human thinking (pp. 3-36). Oxford: Oxford University Press. Oaksford, M., & Chater, N. (2010). Conditionals and constraint satisfaction: Reconciling mental models and the probabilistic approach? In M. Oaksford & N. Chater (Eds.), Cognition and conditionals: Probability and logic in human thinking (pp. 309-334). Oxford: Oxford University Press. Ali, N, Schlottmann, A., Shaw, C., Chater, N., & Oaksford, M., (2010). Conditionals and causal discounting in children. In M. Oaksford & N. Chater (Eds.), Cognition and conditionals: Probability and logic in human thinking (pp. 117-134). Oxford: Oxford University Press. Chater, N., & Oaksford, M. (2010). Epilogue: Open issues in the cognitive science of conditionals. In M. Oaksford & N. Chater (Eds.), Cognition and conditionals: Probability and logic in human thinking (pp. 389-402). Oxford: Oxford University Press. 2009 Chater, N., & Oaksford, M. (2009). Local and global inferential relations: Response to Over (2009). Thinking and Reasoning, 15, 439-446. Oaksford, M., & Chater, N. (2009a). The uncertain reasoner: Bayes, logic and rationality. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 32, 105-120. Oaksford, M., & Chater, N. (2009b). Precis of “Bayesian rationality: The probabilistic approach to human reasoning.” Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 32, 69-84. 2008 Oaksford, M. (2008). Stimulus equivalence and the origins of reasoning, language, and working memory. Cognitive Studies, 15, 392-407. Oberauer, K., & Oaksford, M. (2008). Still in search of a good theory of reasoning: Rejoinder to Barrioullet, Gauffroy, and Lecas (2008). Psychological Review, 115, 778. Oberauer, K., & Oaksford, M. (2008). What must a psychological theory of reasoning explain? Comment on Barrioullet, Gauffroy, and Lecas (2008). Psychological Review, 115, 773-778. Oaksford, K., Oaksford, M., Ashraf, M., & Fitzgibbon, G. (2008). Comparing neuropsychological function before and during haemodialysis: A habituating selective deficit for prose recall. British Journal of Health Psychology, 13, 273289. Oaksford, M., Chater, N., & Hahn, U. (2008). Human reasoning and argumentation: The probabilistic approach. In J. Adler & L. Rips (Eds.), Reasoning: Studies of human inference and its foundations (pp. 383-413). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Chater, N., & Oaksford, M. (Eds.) (2008). The probabilistic mind: Prospects for Bayesian cognitive science. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Hahn, U., & Oaksford, M. (2008). Inference from absence in language and thought. In N. Chater & M. Oaksford (Eds.), The probabilistic mind: Prospects for Bayesian cognitive science (pp. 121-142). Oxford: Oxford University Press. Oaksford, M., & Chater, N. (2008). Probability logic and the Modus Ponens-Modus Tollens asymmetry in conditional inference. In N. Chater, & M. Oaksford (Eds.), The probabilistic mind: Prospects for Bayesian cognitive science (pp. 97-120). Oxford: Oxford University Press. Chater, N., & Oaksford, M. (2008). The probabilistic mind: Prospects for a Bayesian cognitive science. In N. Chater, & M. Oaksford (Eds.), The probabilistic mind: Prospects for Bayesian cognitive science (pp. 3-31). Oxford: Oxford University Press. Chater, N., & Oaksford, M. (2008). The probabilistic mind: Where next? In N. Chater, & M. Oaksford (Eds.), The probabilistic mind: Prospects for Bayesian cognitive science (pp. 497-510). Oxford: Oxford University Press. 2007 Hahn, U., & Oaksford, M. (2007). The burden of proof and its role in argumentation. Argumentation, 21, 39-61. Hattori, M., & Oaksford, M. (2007). Adaptive non-interventional heuristics for covariation detection in causal induction: Model comparison and rational analysis. Cognitive Science, 31, 765-814. Hahn, U., & Oaksford, M. (2007). The rationality of informal argumentation: A Bayesian approach to reasoning fallacies. Psychological Review, 114, 704-732. Oaksford, M., & Hahn, U. (2007). Induction, deduction and argument strength in human reasoning and argumentation. In A. Feeney, & E. Heit (Eds.), Inductive reasoning (pp. 269-301). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Oaksford, M., & Chater, N. (2007). Bayesian rationality: The probabilistic approach to human reasoning. Oxford: Oxford University Press. 2006 Hahn, U., & Oaksford, M. (2006). A normative theory of argument strength. Informal Logic, 26, 1-22. Oaksford, M., & Hahn, U. (2006). Non-monotonicity and informal reasoning: Comment on Ferguson. Argumentation, 20, 245-251. Hahn, U., & Oaksford, M. (2006). A Bayesian approach to informal argument fallacies. Synthese, 152, 207-236. Oaksford, M. (2006). Making connections in conditional inference [Review of If]. American Journal of Psychology, 119, 161-167. Chater, N., & Oaksford, M. (2006). Mental mechanisms. In K. Fiedler, & P. Juslin (Eds.), Information sampling and adaptive cognition (pp. 210-236). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 2005 Perham, N. R., & Oaksford, M. (2005). Deontic reasoning with emotional content: Evolutionary psychology or decision theory? Cognitive Science, 29, 681-718. Hahn, U., Oaksford, M., & Bayindir, H. (2005). How convinced should we be by negative evidence? In B. Bara, L. Barsalou, and M. Bucciarelli (Eds.), Proceedings of the 27th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, (pp. 887-892), Mahwah, N.J.: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. Hahn, U., Oaksford, M., & Corner, A. (2005). Circular arguments, begging the question and the formalization of argument strength. In A. Russell, T. Honkela, K. Lagus, and M. Pöllä, (Eds.), Proceedings of AMKLC'05, International Symposium on Adaptive Models of Knowledge, Language and Cognition, (pp. 34-40), Espoo, Finland, June 2005. Sellen, J., Oaksford, M., & Gray, N. (2005). Schizotypy and conditional inference. Schizophrenia Bulletin, 31, 105-116. Chater, N., Heit, E., & Oaksford, M. (2005). Reasoning. In K. Lamberts & R. Goldstone (Eds.), The Handbook of Cognition (pp. 297-320). London: Sage Publications. 2004 Oaksford, M., Carlile, J., & Moore, S. C. (2004). Effects of reasoning, prior mood, and personality on emotion. Psychologia, 47, 250-263. Oaksford, M. (2004). Reasoning. In N. Braisby & A. Gellatly (Eds.), Cognitive Psychology (pp. 418-455). Oxford: Oxford University Press. Chater, N., & Oaksford, M. (2004). Rationality, rational analysis and human reasoning. In K. Manktelow & M. C. Chung (Eds.), Psychology of reasoning: Theoretical and historical perspectives (pp. 43-74). Hove, Sussex: Psychology Press. Oaksford, M., & Moussakowski, M. (2004). Negations and natural sampling in data selection: Ecological vs. heuristic explanations of matching bias. Memory & Cognition, 32, 570-581. Oaksford, M., & Hahn, U. (2004). A Bayesian analysis of the argument from ignorance. Canadian Journal of Experimental Psychology, 58, 75-85. 2003 Oaksford, M., & Chater, N. (2003). Optimal data selection: Revision, review and reevaluation. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 10, 289-318. Oaksford, M., & Chater, N. (2003). Conditional probability and the cognitive science of conditional reasoning. Mind & Language, 18, 359-379. Chater, N., Oaksford, M., Nakisa, R. & Redington, M. (2003). Fast, frugal and rational: How rational norms explain behavior. Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes, 90, 63-86. Oaksford, M., & Chater, N. (2003). Probabilities and pragmatics in conditional inference: Suppression and order effects. In D. Hardman & L. Macchi (Eds.), Thinking: Psychological perspectives on reasoning, judgment and decision making (pp. 95122). Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Oaksford, M., & Chater, N. (2003). Modeling probabilistic effects in conditional inference: Validating search or conditional probability? Revista Psychologica, 32, 217-242. Oaksford, M., & Wakefield, M. (2003). Data selection and natural sampling: Probabilities do matter. Memory & Cognition, 31, 143-154. Oaksford, M., & Chater, N. (2003). Computational levels and conditional reasoning. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory & Cognition, 29, 150156. Oaksford, M. (2003). Reasoning. In L. Nadel (Ed.), Encyclopedia of cognitive science, Vol. 3 (pp. 863–869). London: Nature Publishing Group. Chater, N., & Oaksford, M. (2003). Rational models of cognition. In L. Nadel (Ed.), Encyclopedia of cognitive science, Vol. 3 (pp. 826–829). London: Nature Publishing Group. 2002 Chater, N., & Oaksford, M., (2002). The rational analysis of human cognition. In J. L. Bermúdez & A. Millar (Eds.), Reason and nature: Essays in the theory of rationality (pp. 135-174). Oxford: Oxford University Press. Moore, S. C., & Oaksford, M. (2002). Some long-term effects of emotion on cognition. British Journal of Psychology, 93, 383-395. Oaksford, M. (2002). Predicting the results of reasoning experiments: Reply to Feeney and Handley. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 55A, 793-798. Moore, S. C., & Oaksford, M. (Eds.) (2002). Emotional cognition. Amsterdam: John Benjamins. Moore, S. C., & Oaksford, M. (2002). An informational value for mood: Negative mood biases attention to global information in a probabilistic classification task. In S. C. Moore & M. Oaksford (Eds.), Emotional cognition (pp. 221-243). Amsterdam: John Benjamins. Moore, S. C., & Oaksford, M. (2002). Emotional cognition: An introduction. In S. C. Moore & M. Oaksford (Eds.), Emotional cognition (pp. 1-8). Amsterdam: John Benjamins. Oaksford, M. (2002). 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