SPICOSA Training Support Pack
The essence of SPICOSA
Science-Policy Interface –
Putting the SAF elements together =
Model-generated scenarios from
Design/Formulation/Appraisal step
Output
Other elements from Design step
When science meets with policy:
What are we talking about?
Material produced by
Anne Mette [email protected] and Audun Sandberg [email protected]
SPICOSA Training Support Pack
SPICOSA Science-Policy Interface
Some essential questions to think about:
Is real life confronting scientists’ models ?
Are scientific concepts shaping our ideas of real life ?
Are scientists’ models confronting policy-makers ideas?
Do scientists know the truth more than stakeholders do?
Are scientists one (or more) of the stakeholders ?
Are scientists neutral helpers who empower
stakeholders?
Are scientists most eager to empower themselves?
The SPICOSA approach shall provide more knowledge
based policy decisions (cfr. Lisboa strategy)?
Material produced by
Anne Mette [email protected] and Audun Sandberg [email protected]
Policy making process:
No final solution
Deliberations over
system output scenario
with stakeholders and
policy makers
+ Social science
analysis of stakeholder
interests and policy
compatibility
Science based
modelling of
Ecological-SocialEconomic relations
and dynamics in
Coastal Zone System
(SAF)
Policy decisions and
policy changes as
experiments in complex
systems.
Outcomes of policies as
consequences for
ecosystems, enterprises
and communities
SPICOSA Training Support Pack
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The essence of SPICOSA
To get a good Science-Policy Interface
It is crucial that the scientific information will be
presented in such a way that:
 the context and the variety of perspectives are made
clear, and
 the scientific information appear in a language and
interpretation understandable for different stakeholders
and policy makers.
 In addition to this, knowledge must be shared:
about the methodology - and about the limits of
modelling and of working with scenarios.
Material produced by
Anne Mette [email protected] and Audun Sandberg [email protected]
SPICOSA Training Support Pack
OUTPUT:
the point of departure when entering the main step of
science-policy consultation/ communication /
confrontation/ dialogue/ deliberation
In the SPICOSA process we have so far undergone the
following steps together with a key group of
stakeholders:
- deliberating and deciding on a policy issue to be tackled
- creation of a Conceptual Model for all interlinkages
- making of a system based model comprising social,
economic and environmental components
- calibrating and validating this model
- developing scenarios based on different policy options for
the underlying policy issue
NOW these results of this entire process, including the
model simulations, shall be brought together and
presented to a larger stakeholder audience
Material produced by
Anne Mette [email protected] and
Audun Sandberg [email protected]
SPICOSA Training Support Pack
Scenario Definition for Science-Policy Communication
“A scenario is a story that describes a possible future.
It identifies some significant events, the main actors
and their motivations, and it conveys how the world
functions…….
Scenarios are based on intuition, but crafted as
analytical structures… They do not provide a
consensus view of the future, nor are they predictions:
they describe a context and how it may change, but
they do not describe the implications of the scenarios
for potential users nor dictate how they must
respond…. Scenarios are intended to form the basis
for a strategic conversation – they are a method for
considering potential implications of and possible
responses to different events”
Shell International 2003. Exploring the Future. Scenarios: An Explorer’s Guide, Shell Centre, London
Material produced by
Anne Mette [email protected] and Audun Sandberg [email protected]
SPICOSA Training Support Pack
Communicating Science is not without its challenges:
You do not want this
to happen to you when
presenting complex scientific
interrelations to a mixed
stakeholder audience!
Beware that the level
of participative communication
and deliberation
cannot be modeled!
Material produced by
Anne Mette [email protected] and Audun Sandberg [email protected]
SPICOSA Training Support Pack
Communicating Science :
Presenting the Scenarios based on the Model Simulations
to a Coastal Audience
It is crucial to translate the scientific language to targetgroup oriented language, i.e. for non-modeller and nonscientist clientele.
This does not imply that the audience is not educated!
They are very knowledgeable people, often highly
specialized, but they all work in different fields.
Such audiences can handle coastal complexity well,
but will usually have differing opinions of what are the
important interrelations in the whole system
Always consider the time factor! Coastal people lead
busy lives and get easily bored…..
Material produced by
Anne Mette [email protected] and Audun Sandberg [email protected]
SPICOSA Training Support Pack
Communicating Science:
Presenting the Scenarios based on the Model
Simulations to a Coastal Audience
• Policy-making in Coastal Systems is all about
handling complexity and cross-sectoral links:
• To effectively portray the results of the system
approach framework, it is therefore imperative that
we present our findings in such a way that they are:
a) Able to catch the whole complexity of the coastal system
b) Not made so complicated that the audience cannot
understand them or reject them as useless
c) Not made so simple that the audience feel patronised by
them and interpret them as disrespect of their stakes
d) Comprehensive enough to permit the audience to
understand fully the scenarios and make informed
decisions / go informed into deliberation process
Material produced by
Anne Mette [email protected] and Audun Sandberg [email protected]
SPICOSA Training Support Pack
How to structure a Scenario Presentation:
I.
An opening and introduction part where the
objectives of the meeting are explained, the
process of the prior steps is briefly recapitulated,
the usefulness (and limits) of working with
scenarios are explained, and a general
explanation of uncertainties and assumptions is
given.
! Remember that the whole process that has been
undergone with stakeholder groups and their
members must be kept transparent at all times!
Material produced by
Anne Mette [email protected] and Audun Sandberg [email protected]
SPICOSA Training Support Pack
How to structure a Scenario Presentation:
II. The presentation of the scenarios which
includes:
a) The description of the policy issue/ option on
which the scenario is based
b) The explanation of the assumptions on which the
scenario and the different parts of the model are
based
c) A sequence of presenting the modelling results
(cfr. Forthcoming Output step guidelines)
III. A summarizing comparison of the presented
scenarios will then lead to a wrap-up of the
presentation before the deliberation or policy
consultation starts
Material produced by
Anne Mette [email protected] and Audun Sandberg [email protected]
SPICOSA Training Support Pack
Further important things to keep in mind
-It is advisable to have a professional facilitator or
science communication expert on the team before and
during such meetings
- and it is desirable to involve social scientists to
attend these output encounters with the stakeholders
and policy makers to better understand “what is going
on here”
-Keep in mind that the science – policy integration
process is an ongoing loop…........…
-And that the outcome of such a process is
fundamentally uncertain – the future is open !
Material produced by
Anne Mette [email protected] and Audun Sandberg [email protected]
SPICOSA Training Support Pack
Finally, keep this in mind:
Working with scenarios implies to work with possible or likely - futures
 still, there are no certainties about those futures,
there are no final solutions!
Scientist support to policy makers and policy-making
processes by sharing their current knowledge, (SPICOSA)
- but they do not “know” how
the future will look like !
Neither does this fellow:
Material produced by
Anne Mette [email protected] and
Audun Sandberg [email protected]
WEDNESDAY MOCK-UP SESSION
Pick one of your models, i.e. one SSA scenario
In very understandable and few words explain:
a) what is the policy issue ?
b) what is the policy option underlying the scenario?
c) what are the assumptions and uncertainties?
d) what are the results/outcomes with regard to the
issue and option and with regard to THE LIVES
of the stakeholders and policy makers
You can of course also pick two scenarios and
compare them.
Or try to do it for two different stakeholder groups:
e.g. fishermen and environmental manager or a
tourist and a sewage plant owner or or or....
The text shall not be more than 1 page.
It can include some bar chart or other visualization.