Panarchy
Dr. Green
Complex Systems
• Change is episodic
– Slow accumulation with sudden release
– Cycles on different time scales
• Naturally lumpy world
– Patchy and discontinuous world
– Nonlinear processes are operative in scales
• Multiple states
• Systems are uncertain and unpredictable
Stability
• Engineering resilience
– Efficiency
– Control
– Constancy
– Predictability
• Mechanistic systems ontology
• Stability near equilibrium
– Resistance to disturbance
Engineering Resilience
• Variability of natural systems can be
controlled
• Consequences are predictable
• Sustained maximum production is the goal
• Single objective=only one equilibrium
• Other states can be avoided by proper
controls
Stability
• Ecological resilience
– Adaptiveness
– Variability
– Unpredictability
• Complex systems ontology
• Far from equilibrium
– Instabilities can flip system into another stable
configuration
• Multiple stable states
Nature as Flat
• A ball balanced at the top of a hill
– No stability
– Random processes
– Destabilizing forces are primary
Nature as Balanced
• A ball at the bottom of a cup
– Equilibrium
– Negative feedback returns to equilibrium
– Static world
Nature as Resilient
• A ball poised between multiple hills and
valleys
– Discontinuous events
– Nonlinear processes
Nature as Evolving
• Nature is a raft
– Add weight, it oscillates and returns to
another stable state
– Too much weight under the raft, the raft sinks
– Too much weight on top of raft, it will flip
• Loss of stability
Myths of Nature
• Nature is flat or anarchic
– Strong stabilizing forces
• Nature is balanced
– Strong destabilizing forces
• Nature as resilient
– Can maintain a maladaptive state
• Nature as a complex adaptive system
– Conserve the ability to adapt
Complex Systems
• Oscillation between accumulation and
release of potential
• Oscillation between stability and instability
• Oscillation between vulnerability and
persistencer
Complex Systems
• Potential available for change, gives range
of options
• Degree of internal connectedness
• Resilience or vulnerability to unexpected
shocks
Adaptive Cycle
• Exploitation Stage—rapid colonization or
recently disturbed areas
– Extensive dispersal abilities
– Rapid growth
– Scramble competition—the first to the prize
wins
– Entrepreneurial stage
Adaptive Cycle
• Conservation—slow accumulation and
storage of energy and material
– Slower growth
– Content competition—resources divided and
sequestered
– bureaucracy
Adaptive Cycle
• Release
– Overconnectedness leads to fragility
– Fragility leads to rigidity and collapse
• Reorganization
– Innovation and restructuring
– Pioneer species
Adaptive Cycle
• Basic resources eliminated then system
exists in a degraded state
• With sufficient carryover, the system goes
through another cycle of development
Novelty
• Reorganization
– Low connectedness and high resilience
• Novel combinations and low risk of systemic failure
– Leakiness
– Greatest uncertainty
• Renewal
• crises
r to K
• Exploiting opportunities in a variability
environment
• Connectedness is low so external variability is
important
• Winners expand and grow
• Relationships develop that reinforce their own
expansion
• Emphasis on control of variability
• Long time period
• Growth and stability phase
K to Omega
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Structural vulnerability
Connections broken
Regulatory controls weakened
Strong destabilizing positive feedback
Omega to Alpha
• Sudden increase in uncertainty
• Unpredictable associations
• Maximizes invention and reassortment