Greater Manchester Strategic
Housing Market Assessment
Update Report
May 2010
1.
Introduction
3.
2.
Setting the Context
6.
3.
Population
Employment
Income
6.
8.
15.
Current Housing Market
18.
National Housing Market
Current Housing Market in Greater Manchester
18.
20.
4.
Housing Stock Assessment
36.
5.
Future Housing Market
49.
6.
Review of Findings
57.
7.
Review of Recommendations
57.
2
1. Introduction
1.1 This report provides an update of the original Strategic Housing Market Assessment1 (SHMA)
undertaken in Greater Manchester in December 2008 by Deloitte and GVA Grimleys. It attempts to
document the changes that have been recorded nationally and in Greater Manchester since the
original report in light of the economic downturn, the impact of the downturn on housing and
planning objectives and identifies issues for consideration by policy makers in Greater
Manchester.
1.2 Strategic Housing Market Assessments were established by Government Guidance: Planning
Policy Statement 3: Housing (November 2006) (PPS3) and detailed Practice Guidance (Strategic
Housing Market Assessment Practice Guidance) was published in March 2007 (revised slightly in
August 2007). The aims of a Strategic Housing Market Assessment are to provide clear evidence
as to what is going on in the housing market and what the future prospects for the market may be.
1.3 PPS3 sets out a requirement for local authorities and Regional Planning Bodies to have regard
to housing market areas in developing spatial plans. Housing market areas are defined in PPS3 as
geographical areas identified by household demand and preferences for housing which reflect the
key functional linkages between places where people live and work.
1.4 A Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) was originally published for Greater
Manchester in December 2008 based on the latest data available at that time. This SHMA robustly
examined the local housing market in accordance with the Strategic Housing Market Assessment
Practice Guidance of August 2007. It considered four Housing Market Areas (HMAs) and included
a review of the current local situation, an understanding of the housing market dynamics and
recommendations as to the appropriate action in Greater Manchester.
1.5 The original documents findings included: • A growing population and falling household size significantly boosting the demand for
housing, a greater proportion of which is in the private rented sector;
• Changes in the structure of the economy, a shift by both sector and occupation towards the
service sector;
• A considerable reduction in the number of vacant properties within the social rented sector
further reinforcing the demand for this sector;
• Markets for housing emerging in new locations and for different types of product meaning
choice had increased but supply did not meet demand;
• The regional centre had witnessed rapid expansion in its residential supply and there is an
onus on policy to encourage a greater mix of use;
• Supply of new housing was uneven across the HMAs (increased households in Central
HMA and completions increased (apartments). High levels of completions in the North
Western HMA reflected more of a balance in terms of type;
• House prices increased significantly across every part of the conurbation, but these
increases hid a number of underlying structural problems. Evidence suggests that much of
the price growth has been driven by speculator and investor activity rather than owner
occupied purchase thus glossing over issues around sustainable communities, deprivation
and social exclusion;
• The threat of the credit crunch gave rise to a range of housing market impacts. Most
commentators anticipated a short to medium term correction and a return to business as
usual in the longer term;
1
Available from the AGMA website http://www.agma.gov.uk/planning_housing_commission/index.html
3
•
•
•
•
•
•
There was a potential issue identified which would dampen market demand with fewer
people having less access to finance coupled with the increased tightening of lending;
The credit crunch was identified as having significant short-term impacts on a number of
market segments in the regional and town centres in relation to investors and first time
buyers. Investor purchases would be more exposed to wide market fluctuations. As a result
it was identified that first time buyers may have increased choice of property but limited
choice of mortgages and lending – so demand in private rented would still be high;
There were large affordability gaps between owning and renting a property across GM,
especially in the Southern HMA;
Demand for social rented stock remained high and in particular for family accommodation.
Supply was not meeting this, however, and waiting lists peaked in 2006 especially in
Manchester and Bolton;
GMFM identified strong service sector driven economic growth, pop increases and
household size reductions;
A forecasted growth in Central and Southern HMAs and a shift in the level of terraced and
semi-detached houses towards flats.
1.6 From the findings in the original report six delivery implications were identified. Two of these
were short to medium term challenges and included responding to the credit crunch and the
regional and town centre markets. The report recognised that if the effects of the credit crunch
were here to stay then it would be worth taking interventionary action – but if transitory then short
to medium term action or “sitting out” the wave of downturn would probably be the best policy.
1.7 The report recognised a temptation to react to what the authors considered to be the likely
short term effects of the credit crunch when the aim should be the long-term requirements of town
and regional centres – focussing on quality housing, diversity and community infrastructure. This
long-term approach recognises the continued demand for flatted properties (in line with single
person households) especially in the centre of the conurbation. Longer term challenges were in
meeting the need for additional housing, housing as an important component of regeneration,
meeting the needs of specific groups such as the elderly and students and bridging the
affordability gap.
1.8 Other issues highlighted in the original report included the viable balance between residential
and commercial uses, further research on an ageing population and migrants and Oldham and
Rochdale tackling pervading ethnic, social and economic polarisation.
1.9 Although it would typically be argued that an SHMA would have currency of more than two
years; due to the notable change in market conditions since the publication of the initial report it is
advisable to re-assess its findings. This update report therefore seeks to complement the existing
study, by reviewing the outputs where more recent data is available. This update report will use
the most recent secondary data to assess the local impact and the appropriate policy response
within the altered market conditions. This is done by direct examination of the secondary data and
by applying the changes recorded to the data provided by the planning and housing departments
to assess housing demand and supply. Main secondary data sources include Office for National
Statistics (ONS), Departments of Communities and Local Government (CLG), the Land Registry
and CACI.
1.10 As with the original SHMA this research is not intended to be a strategy document or to
replace more detailed analysis at district level but more to contribute to the evidence base as a
whole.
4
1.11 As in the previous SHMA, where data is only available at district level, the following
definitions of the Housing Market Areas (HMAs) will be used.
• Central (Manchester, Salford and Trafford);
• Southern (Manchester, Stockport and Trafford);
• North Eastern (Tameside, Oldham, Rochdale
• North Western (Bolton, Bury, Salford and Wigan)
It must be taken into account when interpreting these figures that this does involve some double
counting (most notably in Manchester) where data is not available below local authority level.
Figure 1.1 The Housing Market Areas (HMAs) of Greater Manchester
1.12 This update report is structured in a similar way to the original SHMA and includes:
• Examining the latest data to set the context including a profile of the labour market and the
resident population;
• Analysing the changes that have occurred to the local housing market;
• Considering the current financial capacity of households and their ability to afford market
housing; ;
• Updated outputs of current and future housing supply; and
• The recommendations and policy implications of these findings.
5
2 Setting the Context
2.1 Two main drivers of the housing market are the resident population and the local labour
market. They affect the nature of housing demand including household formation rates and
household investment in housing. This chapter documents the changes that have occurred to the
socio-economic profile in Greater Manchester since the original report was written. The information
presented compares the circumstances within GM as well as to the regional and national situation
where possible.
2.2 The original SHMA report described the nature of the population in Greater Manchester using
the latest information available at the time, principally the 2007 population estimates and the 2001
Census. A range of data has been published subsequently that informs how the population has
changed.
Population
2.3 The Office of National Statistics (ONS) revised population estimates were published in May
2010. These provide an annual estimate of the population in each authority up to 2008.
2.4 Figure 2.1 illustrates the change in population recorded in Greater Manchester, the North West
and the United Kingdom. It shows that over the last fifteen years the population of the UK has
increased at a faster rate than for both Greater Manchester and the North West. Since 2006 the
rate of increase of Greater Manchester has been higher than that for the North West region. The
population estimates suggest that the population of Greater Manchester in 2008 is 2,579,974 and
that since the last SHMA (2007) the population has increased by 0.6% (less than the change
experienced nationally at 0.7%)
Figure 2.1 Population Change 1994 to 2008
108
UK
NW
GM
106
104
102
100
98
96
94
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: ONS mid year population estimates
2.5 The midyear estimates also indicate that GM contains a slightly higher proportion of the
population that are working age than is found nationally and regionally. Figure 2 shows that this
has been the case since 2000. There has been a decrease in the working age population since the
previous SHMA. In Greater Manchester 62.9% of the population were of working age in 2008
compared to 61.6% regionally and 62.0% nationally.
6
Figure 2.2 Working age population change in Greater Manchester (1993-2008)
Working Population: Total Population (%)
63.5
63.0
UK
NW
GM
62.5
62.0
61.5
61.0
60.5
60.0
59.5
59.0
58.5
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
Source: ONS mid year population estimates
Level of migration
2.6 Associated with the mid-year population figures, the ONS provides estimates of the scale of
migration into and out of each authority in England and Wales. This source indicates that by mid2008 migration flows between GM and other parts of the country resulted in a net decrease in
population of 4,900 people, with almost half of this outflow being in Manchester. In terms of net
international migration Greater Manchester had a net inflow of 6,880 almost all of this inflow being
in Manchester.
2.7 In terms of registrations of overseas nationals entering the UK, all areas experienced a
decrease in registrations between 2007/08 and 2008/09. This also reflects the national trend when
registrations reached a peak in the year 2007/08
Table 2.1 NINO registrations to adult overseas nationals entering the UK (Thousands)
Local Authority
Bolton
Bury
Manchester
Oldham
Rochdale
Salford
Stockport
Tameside
Trafford
Wigan
UK
2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06
1.12
1.26
1.70
1.97
0.46
0.45
0.61
1.11
5.90
6.68
7.19
10.81
0.90
0.82
0.83
1.33
0.67
0.68
0.68
1.18
1.11
1.23
1.65
2.90
0.54
0.62
0.63
0.88
0.44
0.51
0.48
0.90
0.88
0.85
1.08
1.66
0.42
0.48
0.66
0.94
346.23
373.50
435.35
663.06
Source National Insurance Recording System
7
2006/07
2.00
1.25
11.30
1.32
1.37
3.21
1.04
1.02
1.72
1.12
705.84
2007/08 2008/09
2.20
2.05
1.10
0.87
11.23
10.53
1.35
1.19
1.37
1.07
3.18
2.84
1.01
0.83
0.99
0.72
1.59
1.32
1.24
1.05
733.09
686.11
Number of households
2.8 The latest data from the Greater Manchester Forecasting Model (GMFM) suggests that the
number of resident households in Greater Manchester is increasing at a faster rate than that of the
population. The data indicates that between 2006 and 2009 the number of people in GM increased
by 1.1%, whilst the number of households increased by 1.9%. This shows that the average size of
households in GM is declining which will increased the demand for housing.
Table 2.2 Change in average household size in Greater Manchester 2006 to 2009
2006
Total Population
2,553.7
Households
1,091.8
Average Household Size
2.34
Source: GMFM Baseline scenario 2009
2007
2,562.1
1,098.3
2.33
2008
2,572.1
1,105.1
2.33
2009
2,582.8
1,112.2
2.32
Employment in Greater Manchester
2.9 NOMIS data on 'job density' (a measure of the number of jobs per person of working age) for
2008 shows that there are 1.07 jobs per person of working age in Manchester. This is a relatively
high ratio and compares with 0.8 for GM and the North West region and 0.83 jobs for England as a
whole. This reflects that Manchester is a sub-regional employment hub and employs more working
age people than are resident in the city. Other districts above the county average include Trafford,
Salford and Stockport as highlighted in the table below.
Table 2.3 Job Density in Greater Manchester
Area
2008
Bolton
Bury
Manchester
Oldham
Rochdale
Salford
Stockport
Tameside
Trafford
Wigan
Greater Manchester
0.75
0.63
1.07
0.66
0.66
0.90
0.86
0.58
1.01
0.58
0.80
North West
0.80
England
0.83
Source: NOMIS
2.10 Data is also available from NOMIS about the number of VAT registered businesses in the
area and how this has changed over time. This can provide a good indication of the state of the
economy as an increase in VAT registered business would suggest either new companies moving
to the area or an increase in local entrepreneurship and is consistent with data used in the original
SHMA.
2.11 NOMIS indicates that the number of VAT registered businesses at the end of 2007 in GM
was 70,805, this is an increase of 17.7% over the ten years since 1997 and an increase of 2.8%
from 2006. Nationally, however, the increase since 1997 has been 21% and 2.9 % since 2006.
The region as a whole has also experienced more registrations over these periods at 3.2% and
19.7% respectively.
8
Table 2.4 Business Registrations and De-registrations 1997 to 2007
1997
2006
2007
6,160
4,480
11,755
4,330
4,245
4,655
7,935
4,285
6,730
5,565
6,965
5,050
12,205
5,125
4,790
5,810
9,165
4,955
8,155
6,610
7,055
5,175
12,525
5,220
4,940
5,980
9,435
5,110
8,445
6,920
60,140
68,830
70,805
162,685
188,735
194,695
1,676,065
1,973,220
2,031,145
Area
Bolton
Bury
Manchester
Oldham
Rochdale
Salford
Stockport
Tameside
Trafford
Wigan
GM
NW
UK
Source: NOMIS
% Change % Change
2006/2007 1997/2007
1.3
14.5
2.5
15.5
2.6
6.6
1.9
20.6
3.1
16.4
2.9
28.5
2.9
18.9
3.1
19.3
3.6
25.5
4.7
24.3
2.9
17.7
3.2
19.7
2.9
21.2
2.12 Measured by the most recent Annual Business Inquiry (ABI) there were 1,161,801 employee
jobs in Greater Manchester in 2008. This shows some decline since 2007 from a figure of
1,170,318 (-0.7%) but not as much decline as that for the region at –1.2%. Nationally, however,
the number of employee jobs has increased between 2007 and 2008 (0.3%) This is displayed in
the chart below (Figure 2.3). The figure also indicates that, apart from this last 12 months, the
increase in the number of employee jobs in Greater Manchester has been consistently higher than
both the region or nationally.
Figure 2.3 Change in Employment jobs 1998 to2008 (1998 Index=100)
112
110
108
Index (1998)
106
104
102
100
GB
98
NW
GM
96
94
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Year
Source: ONS Annual Business Inquiry Employee Analysis
9
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Figure 2.4 Economic Growth Summary – 1999 to 2009
PRODUCTIVITY
NORTH WESTERN HMA
NORTH EASTERN HMA
SOUTHERN HMA
CENTRAL HMA
EMPLOYMENT
NORTH WEST
GREATER MANCHESTER
GVA
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
1.8%
CAGR (%) - 1999 - 2009
Source GMFM
2.13 The chart above shows economic growth in terms of productivity, employment and Gross
Value Added (GVA), which is a combination of employment, and productivity. In terms of
productivity Greater Manchester increased by 0.9% and in employment terms by 0.3% per annum
over the 10-year period. These figures reflect the economic downturn compared to the original
SHMA for Greater Manchester, which showed average productivity growth of 1.6% and
employment growth of 0.9% between 1997 and 2007.
2.14 The distribution of growth in the HMAs has remained consistent to the previous SHMA with
the Southern and Central HMAs growing at a higher rate than the Northern HMAs. Similarly, the
employment structure of Greater Manchester highlighted in the chart below (Figure 2.5) still shows
high concentrations of employment in services. This growth has been particularly pronounced in
Other Public Sector Services and Business Services but Retail and Distribution did experience
some decline between 1999 and 2009 falling back to 1989 proportions.
10
Figure 2.5 Changing Industrial Structure in GM 1999 to 2009
EXTRACTION
UTILITIES
AGRICULTURE
COMMUNICATIONS
FINANCIAL SERVICES
2009
TRANSPORT
1999
HOTELS AND CATERING
1989
CONSTRUCTION
MANUFACTURING
RETAIL AND DISTRIBUTION
BUSINESS SERVICES
OTHER (PUBLIC SECTOR) SERVICES
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
PROPORTION OF ALL EMPLOYMENT IN GREATER MANCHESTER (%)
Source GMFM
2.15 The chart below (Figure 2.6) details the sectors responsible for GVA growth in Greater
Manchester between 1999 and 2009. The blue bars represent compound annual growth of GVA
whilst the purple bars break down total cumulative GVA into those industries providing the
additional GVA (known as GVA contribution analysis). In standard growth terms at the broad
industrial level it is still evident that growth has been almost entirely concentrated in service-based
sectors, mirroring the UK and other urban areas.
2.16 In terms of the contribution to GVA the figure is also dependent on the level of resources
deployed in the sector. So whilst Other Public Services realised lower GVA growth than most
sectors its contribution was the highest of any individual sector. Although the manufacturing sector
declined over this period its contribution to overall GVA is still significant.
11
Figure 2.6 Components of GVA in GM 1999 to 2009 (GMFM)
OTHER (PUBLIC SECTOR) SERVICES
RETAIL AND DISTRIBUTION
BUSINESS SERVICES
MANUFACTURING
CONSTRUCTION
HOTELS AND CATERING
TRANSPORT
FINANCIAL SERVICES
COMMUNICATIONS
AGRICULTURE
UTILITIES
EXTRACTION
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
%
GVA GROWTH (%, CAGR), 1999-2009
CONTRIBUTION TO TOTAL CUMULATIVE GVA (%), 1999-2009
2.17 The occupational structure has also changed significantly as highlighted in the chart below.
Results are presented below in terms of elementary, manual, low end and high end services. It is
in the high end service occupations such as managerial and professional activities where growth
has occurred and now accounts for 40% of all occupations in Greater Manchester
Figure 2.7 Changing Occupational Structures 1989 to 2009 (GMFM)
ELEMENTARY
OCCUPATIONS
1989
MAINLY MANUAL
OCCUPATIONS
1999
2009
MEDIUM / LOW-END
SERVICE OCCUPATIONS
HIGH-END SERVICE
OCCUPATIONS
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Source GMFM
12
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
Employment profile of residents
2.18 Although the overall economic performance of Greater Manchester provides important
context, an understanding of the affect of the economic downturn on the resident population is
more crucial to this study.
2.19 The ONS publishes the number of people claiming job seekers allowance on a monthly basis.
This provides a very up to date measure of the level of unemployment of residents in an area.
Figure 3 shows the change in the proportion of the working age population claiming job seekers
allowance since January 2006. The rate of unemployment in Greater Manchester has shown a
notable increase since mid-2008, mirroring the national and regional trends. Overall the number of
people claiming job seekers allowance in Greater Manchester currently stands at 5.0% of
residents, slightly down on the previous two months having reached a peak in January 2010 of
5.3%. Greater Manchester and the North West have consistently been higher than the national
average but during the economic downturn Greater Manchester unemployment rate is now
significantly higher than the regional average (5.0% as opposed to 4.5%) compared to a national
average of 4.1%
Figure 2.8 Level of unemployment in Greater Manchester (Jan 2006 to Apr 2010)
6.0
UK
NW
GM
Unemployment Rate (%)
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
Ja
n0
M 6
ar
M 06
ay
-0
Ju 6
lSe 06
pN 06
ov
-0
Ja 6
n0
M 7
ar
-0
M 7
ay
-0
Ju 7
lSe 07
pN 07
ov
-0
Ja 7
n0
M 8
ar
M 08
ay
-0
Ju 8
l-0
Se 8
pN 08
ov
-0
Ja 8
n0
M 9
ar
M 09
ay
-0
Ju 9
l-0
Se 9
pN 09
ov
-0
Ja 9
n1
M 0
ar
-1
0
0.0
Month
Source: ONS Claimant count via NOMIS
13
Table 2.5 JSA Claimant Count April 2010
JSA Claimants
Area
Number
Monthly
Annual
Rate
Change (%) Change (%)
8,036
-2.5
4,540
-3.0
Manchester
18,210
-1.0
Oldham
7,186
-2.5
Rochdale
7,479
-1.4
Salford
7,681
-2.4
Stockport
6,339
-3.5
Tameside
6,802
-1.7
Trafford
4,684
-2.1
Wigan
9,522
-3.6
Greater Manchester
80,479
-2.2
North West
191,828
-2.9
United Kingdom
1,568,128
-2.9
Source: ONS Claimant count via NOMIS
Bolton
Bury
3.0
-0.4
6.0
3.8
2.7
8.0
0.9
5.2
3.6
-2.7
3.3
-1.7
0.7
5.0
4.0
5.7
5.4
5.9
5.4
3.7
5.1
3.6
5.0
5.0
4.5
4.1
2.20 The number of JSA claimants in Greater Manchester fell over the month by 1,821 (-2.2%) to
80,479 in April 2010, a 5.0% claimant rate. Comparatively, the North West (4.5%) and UK (4.1%)
experienced lower claimant rates. The highest JSA claimant rate continued to be in Rochdale
(5.9%). All local authorities experienced a monthly decrease in JSA claimants, with Wigan
experiencing the greatest reduction (-3.6%). The monthly reduction in Greater Manchester (-2.2%)
was less than for the North West and UK (both –2.9%). The claimant rates are around twice as
high as they were 2 years ago but since April 2009 the claimant count in GM has increased by
3.3%
Table 2.6 Long-term JSA claimants (over 6 months) April 2010
Area
Number
Monthly
Change (%)
3,490
3.1
Bury
1,720
1.2
Manchester
7,425
3.3
Oldham
2,985
0.7
Rochdale
3,305
-0.9
Salford
3,140
2.1
Stockport
2,690
-0.4
Tameside
2,840
0.9
Trafford
1,690
3.7
Wigan
4,130
-0.7
Greater Manchester
33,410
1.4
North West
73,420
0.7
United Kingdom
603,730
1.6
Source: ONS Claimant count via NOMIS
Bolton
Annual
% of total
Change (%) JSA
83.7
81.1
62.8
85.4
85.7
85.8
95.6
83.8
94.3
68.6
78.3
49.4
60.6
43.4
37.9
40.8
41.5
44.2
40.9
42.4
41.8
36.1
43.4
41.5
38.3
38.5
2.21 The long-term (over 6 months) JSA claimant count stood at 33,410 in GM in April 2010
(41.5% of the total JSA claimant level). This was higher than the North West (38.3%) and UK
(38.5%) proportions. Rochdale had the highest proportion of long-term claimants at 44.2%. All
areas experienced substantial annual increase in long term claimants with Greater Manchester
increasing by 78.3% over the year.
14
Figure 2.9 Ratio of JCP notified vacancies to JSA claimants by area, April 2008 to April 2010
RATIO OF JCP VACANCIES TO JSA CLAIMANTS
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
April 2008
October 2008
April 2009
GB
NW
October 2009
GM
April 2010
Source: JCP Vacancies, DWP, 2010
2.23 Figure 2.9 shows trends in the number of vacancies relative to the number of claimants. The
total number of vacancies in GM stood at 16,561 – a vacancy to job ratio of 0.21. Similar ratios in
April 2010 exist for the North West and nationally. For GM this represents a decrease of -9.5%
since last month.
2.24 Signs of recovery in the UK economy are reflected in the fact that the UK has recently
recorded slight increases in growth in the economy, although was one of the last European
countries to emerge out of recession conditions. The longer-term effects of the economic downturn
will be analysed later in this report in the Future Housing Market chapter.
Income
2.25 Income has a crucial affect on the level of choice a household has when determining their
future accommodation. Table 27 shows that according to modelled CACI data published in 2010
the mean earned household income in Greater Manchester is £33,092; this is lower than both the
North West (at £33,263) and nationally (at £35,294). This income figure for Greater Manchester
represents a notable increase (2.9%) from the figure of £32,141 from 2007 recorded in the original
SHMA report. The distribution of income throughout the districts remains consistent with Trafford
and Stockport having the highest income levels and Manchester the only district with an average
household income figure below £30,000.
15
Table 2.7 Household Income 2010
Bolton
Bury
Manchester
Oldham
Rochdale
Salford
Stockport
Tameside
Trafford
Wigan
Total
Households
112,794
78,989
212,145
91,203
87,052
100,703
124,264
95,891
94,513
134,086
Mean
Household
income (£)
32,918
35,748
29,278
31,680
31,413
31,343
37,709
32,324
39,548
32,789
Greater Manchester
North West
United Kingdom
1,131,640
3,018,040
26,857,270
33,092
33,263
35,294
Source CACI (2010)
2.26 In terms of change of income over time ONS figures of hours and earnings shows the change
in the mean income of residents in Greater Manchester, the North West and England since 2002.
Greater Manchester has recorded a greater income increase since 2002 (at 25%) than the North
West but less than nationally (26.7%). The districts of Manchester and Rochdale showed the
greatest increase in income over this period and Tameside and Wigan the least.
Table 2.8 Change in mean annual gross income of full-time employed residents 2002-2008
2002
2009
Bolton
18,610
Bury
20,708
Manchester
17,853
Oldham
17,275
Rochdale
18,262
Salford
18,407
Stockport
20,249
Tameside
18,503
Trafford
21,733
Wigan
18,655
Greater Manchester
19,008
North West
19,281
United Kingdom
20,376
Source: ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings
16
% Change
23,164
26,056
23,054
21,497
23,754
22,954
25,973
22,814
27,745
23,152
23,763
24,000
25,816
24.5
25.8
29.1
24.4
30.1
24.7
28.3
23.3
27.7
24.1
25.0
24.5
26.7
In Summary:
• Population levels in Greater Manchester have increased since the last SHMA by
0.6%;
• Greater Manchester contains a higher proportion of the population of working age
than nationally or regionally;
• Registrations of overseas nationals has decreased since 2007/8 both nationally and
in all districts of Greater Manchester;
• The average size of households in Greater Manchester is decreasing and thus
increasing the demand for housing;
• The density of jobs in Greater Manchester reflects the importance of Manchester as a
sub-regional employment hub;
• Unemployment has increased rapidly during 2009 and this is reflected in the large
increases in the long term unemployed;
• Job vacancies reached their lowest point in January 2009 and again in January 2010
but there has been some stability in the months up to April 2010;
• Greater Manchester recorded greater income increases than the North West but less
than that nationally since 2002.
17
3. Current Housing Market
3.1 This chapter describes the downturn in the housing market that has been recorded nationally
before examining the extent of the downturn in Greater Manchester and specifically its effects on
the housing market. Subsequently it re-assesses the entry-level costs of housing to document how
this has changed since the original SHMA report. A comparison of the cost of different tenures will
be used to identify the housing market gaps that exist - enabling the viability of products within
these gaps to be assessed.
The National Housing Market Downturn
3.2 Due to the historic rise in house prices since the beginning of the century, many experts had
been expecting a crash in house prices for some time. The market downturn was principally
triggered by the realisation of the scale of the bad debt that banks had which caused banks to be
much more cautious toward lending to one another as there was a greater risk of not being repaid.
It was this coupled with the wider economic influences and recession conditions, which lasted
longer than anticipated, which exacerbated this housing market downturn.
3.3 The tightening of lending has meant that the multiples of income that a mortgage was offered
on were reduced and a greater proportion of the value of the home was required as a deposit. This
particularly affected first-time buyers, who had less access to capital. The result was that in 2008,
194,000 home loans were granted to first-time buyers in England compared with 357,800 in 2007,
while the average deposit put down by a new entrant to the market rose to 22% the highest level
since 1974. The average multiple of income that first-time buyers borrowed in 2008 was 3.1 times
their earnings compared with 3.4 times in 2007. The reduction in first-time buyers had implications
for the overall buoyancy of the market. The absence of new entrants to the market, reduced
activity further up the housing ladder with the number of home mover loans dropping from 658,000
in 2007 to 322,200 in 2008 (Source The Council of Mortgage Lenders, 2009).
Figure 3.1 House Price Index January 1995 to February 2010
350
Index (Jan 95 based)
300
GM
NW
England & Wales
250
200
150
100
50
Month
Source: Land Registry House Price Index
18
Feb-10
Jul-09
Dec-08
May-
Oct-07
Mar-07
Aug-
Jan-06
Jun-05
Nov-04
Apr-04
Sep-03
Feb-03
Jul-02
Dec-01
May-
Oct-00
Mar-00
Aug-
Jan-99
Jun-98
Nov-97
Apr-97
Sep-96
Feb-96
Jul-95
0
3.4 Whilst the decline in property prices had been relatively modest until the summer 2008, the
speculation of the total extent of the reduction of the value of housing that would occur in this
downturn has also put off potential buyers concerned by the prospect of a continued fall in prices
leaving them in negative equity. It is difficult to predict future market trends with any degree of
certainty but there is evidence of an upturn in house prices as illustrated in the graph above
(Figure 3.10).
3.5 The current housing market representing a risk allied to the difficulty of getting a mortgage is
likely to see the recent housing market trends continue. As outlined below interest rates are at an
all time low and have remained static since April 2009. At the time of writing, with signs of an
upturn in inflation, there is speculation that mortgage rates will begin to rise again. Overall, the
market recovery could continue in the light of more stable unemployment rates highlighted in the
previous chapter and be reflected with a possible rise in interest rates. A full market recovery will
not occur until credit availability issues for first-time buyers are resolved.
Figure 3.2 Change in the UK Bank of England Base Rates December 2007 to April 2010
6.00%
5.00%
Rate (%)
4.00%
3.00%
2.00%
1.00%
Ja
nFe 0 8
bM 08
ar
Ap 08
r-0
M 8
ay
Ju 08
n0
Ju 8
l- 0
Au 8
gSe 08
pO 08
ct
N 08
ov
D 08
ec
Ja 0 8
nFe 0 9
bM 09
ar
Ap 09
r-0
M 9
ay
Ju 09
n0
Ju 9
l- 0
Au 9
gSe 09
pO 09
ct
N 09
ov
D 09
ec
-0
Ja 9
nFe 1 0
bM 10
ar
Ap 10
r-1
0
0.00%
Month
3.6 Although the most recent data shows uplift, the recession has had a significant impact on both
house prices and the number of sales for Greater Manchester, the North West and England &
Wales. With concerns about access to finance affecting both householders and the development
industry, the depth and longevity of the recession’s impact on housing markets remain uncertain.
Table 3.1 UK Mortgages in arrears and taken into possession 2005 to 2009
Mortgages 12
months
Mortgages 6-12
Properties taken
UK
months in arrears
or more in arrears
into possession
at end of period
at end of period
during period
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
2005
38,600
0.33
2006
34,900
0.30
2007
40,500
0.34
2008
72,000
0.62
2009
88,700
0.81
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders 2010
15,000
15,700
15,300
29,500
65,300
19
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.25
0.60
14,600
20,900
26,200
40,000
46,000
0.13
0.18
0.22
0.34
0.42
3.7 Recently released statistics from the Council of Mortgage Lenders shows that over the year to
2009 there has been a significant increase in the number or mortgages falling into arrears and
also in the number of properties being taken into possession. In the UK as a whole over 65,000
mortgages were arrears by over 12 months in 2009 compared to 29,500 in 2008. There were
6,000 more properties repossessed in 2009 than in 2008.
Table 3.2 Landlord possession claims (per 1,000 households*)
2003
2004
Bolton
6.4
5.8
Bury
8.7
7.9
Manchester
16.3
16.5
Oldham
11.9
10.8
Rochdale
11.1
12.6
Salford
10.7
9.2
Stockport
5.2
6.4
Tameside
8.1
7.4
Trafford
5.8
4.6
Wigan
8.2
7.5
Greater Manchester
9.7
North West
7.7
England and Wales
7.8
*2006 mid year estimates Source Ministry of Justice
9.4
7.5
7.7
2005
6.4
6.0
15.2
10.8
11.9
5.5
8.1
8.5
6.7
6.5
2006
6.3
5.5
14.8
10.5
9.5
7.3
7.4
9.2
7.2
6.8
2007
5.0
5.6
10.4
10.4
7.8
8.7
6.4
8.1
5.2
7.3
2008
5.2
6.0
13.6
9.9
8.3
8.7
6.1
8.2
6.4
5.5
9.1
7.4
7.3
9.0
7.1
7.0
7.7
6.6
6.5
8.2
6.8
6.5
3.8 The table above illustrates the number of landlord possession claims to county courts per
1,000 households as a result of rent arrears. Greater Manchester, the North West and England
and Wales showed annual decreases in possession claims between 2003 and 2007. There was
an increase in possession claims in the year to 2008. In Greater Manchester 8 households per
1000 had a landlord possession claim compared to 6.5 nationally. In the districts of Greater
Manchester Manchester had the highest level of landlord possession at 13.6 and Bolton the least
at 5.3 per 1,000 households.
3.9 The figures of mortgage arrears and mortgage and landlord possessions highlighted above
reflects how fragile the housing market is at present in terms of the affordability both mortgaged
and rented properties.
Current Housing Market in Greater Manchester
3.10 The past 10 years have seen extraordinary changes in the Greater Manchester housing
market. As highlighted earlier population has grown and is expected to rise further and household
size is projected to fall. Although recently slowing there have been high increases in the number of
those of working age largely due to economic migrants. Such factors have led to significant
increases in housing demand, at a time when the recession has meant that the market is less able
and less willing to respond.
3.11 Within Greater Manchester aggregated house price paid data from the Land Registry shows
that from a peak of £158,381 in quarter 3 2007, average prices fell to £136,072 in quarter 1 2009,
before recovering slightly to £142,284 in quarter 22. The number of sales between January and
March 2009 was 3,922, compared to 9,138 in the same period for 2008. Sales increased
marginally to 5,390 between April and June 2009.
2
HM Land Registry
20
3.12 Figure 3.3 shows the number of sales recorded in Greater Manchester for each quarter since
quarter three of 2000 to the third quarter of 2009 (Please note the figures for this quarter could
change due to late registrations with the Land Registry). The chart shows that whilst property sales
levels have been subject to seasonal variation there has been a marked decrease in sales
recorded since quarter three of 2007. The chart also shows the change in average property prices
over this period and illustrates the lag between the decline in property sales and the decline in
property prices.
Figure 3.3 House Prices and Sales in Greater Manchester 3rd Quarters 2000 to 2009
House Price (£)
No.of Sales
18000
£160,000
16000
£140,000
14000
Average House Price (£)
£180,000
12000
£100,000
10000
£80,000
8000
£60,000
6000
£40,000
4000
£20,000
2000
0
20
00
20 Q
00 3
20 Q
01 4
20 Q
01 1
20 Q
01 2
20 Q
01 3
20 Q
02 4
20 Q
02 1
20 Q
02 2
20 Q
02 3
20 Q
03 4
20 Q
03 1
20 Q
03 2
20 Q
03 3
20 Q
04 4
20 Q
04 1
20 Q
04 2
20 Q
04 3
20 Q
05 4
20 Q
05 1
20 Q
05 2
20 Q
05 3
20 Q
06 4
20 Q
06 1
20 Q
06 2
20 Q
06 3
20 Q
07 4
20 Q
07 1
20 Q
07 2
20 Q
07 3
20 Q
08 4
20 Q
08 1
20 Q
08 2
20 Q
08 3
20 Q
09 4
20 Q
09 1
20 Q
09 2
Q
3
£0
Number of Sales
£120,000
Quarter
Source Land Registry
Please note all the data contained in Figures 3.3 to 3.15 and Tables 3.3 and 3.5 are
produced from the Price Paid dataset purchased by AGMA from H M Land Registry.
This postcode data is aggregated to the various geographies including district and HMA to
give an average sales price and total number of sales. It is important to stress that these
figures are averages of prices paid and that the data could change as new sales are
reported to the Land Registry (particularly within the last quarter).
HM Land Registry uses a more sophisticated methodology to calculate the average prices
of properties at local authority level and above, including specific steps that the AGMA
cannot fully replicate when analysing the address level price paid dataset. Such steps
include seasonal adjustments and the matching of individual addresses and their sales
prices over time to measure real change (repeat sales regression). The methodology used
in this report is one of simple averages of house prices paid in each postcode and also
includes number of sales per postcode. This aggregated data of average prices, therefore
will not correlate with district level figures produced officially by the Land Registry every
month.
3.13 Looking at the Land Registry data in more detail the following table illustrates the average
house price paid of all residential property in the districts and HMAs of Greater Manchester.
21
Table 3.3 House Prices in Greater Manchester – 3rd Quarter 2009
Quarter
Bolton
Bury
Manchester
Oldham
Rochdale
Salford
Stockport
Tameside
Trafford
Wigan
Overall
Average No. Sales
£143,484
610
£148,552
400
£146,035
1,146
£122,147
453
£120,459
392
£124,531
561
£186,409
832
£122,259
485
£231,437
623
£123,212
634
Greater Manchester
Central HMA
Southern HMA
North Eastern HMA
North Western HMA
£150,505
£167,334
£187,960
£121,622
£134,945
6,136
2,330
2,601
1,330
2,205
Source Land Registry Price Paid data
3.14 The table above shows the average house prices across Greater Manchester as of the 3rd
quarter 2009. In terms of the Housing Market Areas the Southern HMA has both the highest prices
and sales and the North Eastern HMA the least at £121,622.
3.15 From the aggregated price paid postcode data from the Land Registry it is clear that the peak
in House Prices in Greater Manchester across all house types was in Quarter 3 of 2007. Further
analysis of change over time is highlighted below.
Figure 3.4 Average House Prices by Housing Market Area 2007 – 2009
£250,000
GM
Southern HMA
North Western HMA
Central HMA
North Eastern HMA
Price (£)
£200,000
£150,000
£100,000
£50,000
£0
2007 Q3
2008 Q3
2009 Q3
Quarter
Source Land Registry House Price Paid data
22
Figure 3.5 Change in HMA House Prices 2007 to 2009
0.0
GM
Central HMA
Southern
HMA
North
Eastern HMA
% Change Q3 2007 - Q3 2009
-2.0
North
Western
HMA
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0
-10.0
-12.0
Source Land Registry House Price Paid data
3.16 There has evidently been a significant downturn in house prices across all the Greater
Manchester Housing Market Areas between Q3 2007 and Q3 2009. The Southern HMA remains
the area with the highest values despite a decrease of over 8%. The central HMA, having
experienced the greatest increase in house prices in the original GMSHMA has now experienced
the greatest decrease in prices between 2007 and 2009 at –10.4%. This clearly reflects the
fragility of the housing market in this area in its reaction to the economic downturn.
3.17 It is interesting to analyse how the different house type prices have reacted to the recession
since their peak in 2007. The charts below represent house prices and sales in Greater
Manchester by house type between the housing peak in Quarter 3 2007 to Quarter 3 2009.
Figure 3.6 House Prices in Greater Manchester Quarter 3 2007 to Quarter 3 2009
110
105
100
Index
95
90
85
80
75
70
Overall
Detached
Semi
Terraced
Flat
New Build
65
60
2007 Q3
2007 Q4
2008 Q1
2008 Q2
2008 Q3
Quarter
Source Land Registry Price Paid data
23
2008 Q4
2009 Q1
2009 Q2
2009 Q3
3.18 The chart above shows that in terms of house prices it is Flats that have suffered the most
from the peak in the housing market in quarter 3 of 2007. In particular this decrease in house
prices occurred in the period Quarter 3 and 4 of 2008. in line with a sharp decline in New Build
properties. Although all types have recovered in value it is the Semi-detached and Terraced
property types which have returned most to their levels in Q3 2007.
Figure 3.7 Number of Sales by House Type in GM Quarters 3 2007 to 2009
120
Overall
Semi
Flat
100
Detached
Terraced
New Build
Index
80
60
40
20
0
2007 Q3
2007 Q4
2008 Q1
2008 Q2
2008 Q3
2008 Q4
2009 Q1
2009 Q2
2009 Q3
Quarter
Source Land Registry Price Paid data
3.19 The chart above represents the changes in the number of sales by house type in Greater
Manchester between selected quarters of 2007 to 2009. All house types clearly show a decline in
sales up to the beginning of 2009 although the decline in flat sales and new build did not begin
until quarter 4 of 2007. New build sales also fluctuated throughout this period.
3.20 Detached and semi-detached properties have seen the quickest recovery in terms of number
of sales. This reflects the limited supply of this type of property and a higher demand for those
properties available. Although sales of flats and terraced properties have increased to some extent
they are still significantly lower than 2007 levels.
3.21 The data clearly points to the fragility of the flatted new build market in its reaction to the
economic downturn such as in Manchester city centre where the development of new flats has
been so prevalent. This also helps to explain why the Central HMA has suffered the most during
this period of economic uncertainty.
3.22 The data below sets out average prices of all residential property transactions on a local
authority wide basis over a longer period than previously (Q3 2005 and Q3 2009) to give an
indication of the differences and long term changes experienced by the local authorities of Greater
Manchester.
24
Figure 3.8 Average House Prices by Authority 2005-2009
£300,000
2005 Q3
2008 Q3
2006 Q3
2009 Q3
2007 Q3
£250,000
Price (£)
£200,000
£150,000
£100,000
£50,000
W
ig
an
d
ffo
r
Tr
a
e
es
id
Ta
m
St
oc
kp
or
t
Sa
lfo
rd
e
R
oc
hd
al
ha
m
O
ld
st
er
ch
e
M
an
Bu
ry
Bo
lto
n
£0
District
Source Land Registry Price Paid data
3.23 The chart above illustrates the pattern of growth in each local authority in selected quarters
between 2005 and 2009. Trafford consistently posts the highest average values, whilst Oldham
and Rochdale see consistently low values by comparison.
3.24 The figure below sets out the average prices of detached properties in the local authorities of
Greater Manchester for selected quarters.
Figure 3.9 Average Detached House Prices by Authority 2005-2009
£600,000
2005 Q3
2008 Q3
2006 Q3
2009 Q3
2007 Q3
House Price Paid (%)
£500,000
£400,000
£300,000
£200,000
£100,000
£0
Bolt on
Bury
M anchest er
Oldham
Rochdale
Salf ord
District
Source Land Registry Price Paid data
25
Stpckport
Tameside
Traff ord
Wigan
3.25 In terms of detached property, Trafford again sets the highest average value reaching over
£555,000 in Q3 2005. By the third quarter of 2009 the average value of detached properties in
Trafford had decreased to just over £440,000. Bolton was the only district to experience year on
year price increases in this house type – rising by 24% between 2005 and 2009. Wigan
consistently has the lowest average house prices for detached properties.
Figure 3.10 Average Semi Detached Prices by Authority
£250,000
House Price Paid (£)
2005 Q3
2006 Q3
2007 Q3
2008 Q3
2009 Q3
£200,000
£150,000
£100,000
£50,000
ig
an
W
d
Tr
af
fo
r
id
e
es
m
Ta
kp
or
t
St
oc
Sa
lfo
rd
e
R
oc
hd
al
O
ld
ha
m
er
st
an
ch
e
M
Bu
ry
Bo
lto
n
£0
District
Source Land Registry Price Paid data
3.26 Whilst Trafford again shows a price premium for semi-detached properties it is more closely
followed by Stockport and Manchester. Significantly, the districts of Bury, Oldham, Tameside and
Wigan have lower semi detached property prices in Q3 2009 than they did in Q3 2005.
Figure 3.11 Average Terraced House Prices by Authority 2005-2009
£200,000
2005 Q 3
2008 Q 3
£180,000
2006 Q3
2009 Q3
2007 Q 3
£160,000
House Price Paid (£)
£140,000
£120,000
£100,000
£80,000
£60,000
£40,000
£20,000
£0
Bolton
Bury
Manchester
O ldham
Rochdale
Salford
District
Source Land Registry Price Paid data
26
Stockport
Tam eside
Trafford
W igan
3.27 In terms of terraced properties, the table above indicates a similar trend to that evidenced for
semi-detached with Trafford having the highest prices followed by Stockport. The districts of
Tameside and Bury now have slightly lower terraced property prices in Q3 2009 than they did for
the same period of 2005. Most districts experienced their highest terraced property price in Q3
2007 and this then decreased over the next two years in this quarter.
Figure 3.12 Average Flat/Apartment Prices by Authority 2005 - 2009
250,000
2005 Q3
2006 Q3
2007 Q3
2008 Q3
2009 Q3
House Price Paid (£)
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
ig
an
W
d
Tr
af
fo
r
id
e
es
t
or
oc
kp
Ta
m
R
St
Sa
lfo
rd
al
hd
oc
ld
h
O
e
am
er
M
an
ch
e
st
Bu
ry
Bo
lto
n
0
District
Source Land Registry Price Paid data
3.28 Of all the districts of Greater Manchester only Bury and Trafford have higher flat prices in
2009 than they did in the same period for 2005. Bury’s increase shows a flat price of over
£137,000 now as compared to just under £127,000 in 2005. Salford on the other hand had an
average flat price of over £131,000 in Q3 2005 but this has now reduced to just over £111,000 in
Q3 2009.
Figure 3.13 New Build Property Prices by Authority 2005 to 2009
£350,000
2005 Q3
2008 Q3
£300,000
2006 Q3
2009 Q3
2007 Q3
House Price Paid (£)
£250,000
£200,000
£150,000
£100,000
£50,000
£0
Bolton
Bury
Manchester
Oldham
Rochdale
District
Source Land Registry House Price paid data
27
Salford
Stockport
Tameside
Trafford
Wigan
3.29 New Build property prices as highlighted above reached a peak in most districts in Q3 2008
followed by a decrease to quarter 3 of 2009. Rochdale and Tameside have experienced an
increase in New Build property price between 2008 and 2009 leading to Tameside having its
highest new build prices in this 5-year period. Oldham and Wigan also have a higher new build
property price in 2009 than they did in 2005.
Figure 3.14 Unit Sales by Authority 2005 to 2009
3500
3000
Number of sales
2500
2005 Q3
2006 Q3
2008 Q3
2009 Q3
2007 Q3
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Bolton
Bury
Manchester
Oldham
Rochdale
Salford
Stpckport
Tamesoide
Trafford
Wigan
District
Source Land Registry House Price Paid data
3.30 The chart above dramatically illustrates the drop in sales from peaks of Q3 2006 and 2007 to
the low levels experienced in 2008 and 2009. Manchester, for example, went from a sales figure of
over 3,300 in Q3 2006 to just over 1,100 in Q3 2009 – a decrease in the 5 year period of 60%. The
only districts to experience any increase in sales between q3 2008 and q3 2009 were Trafford and
Stockport.
Figure 3.15 Component Unit Sales by Authority – 3rd Quarter 2009
100%
8.4
2.2
6.0
6.6
9.7
4.7
6.2
12.7
14.1
28.6
37.3
80%
34.0
Percentage sales
30.9
23.1
24.2
39.5
53.2
44.1
43.9
34.4
60%
36.3
26.7
45.1
39.8
40%
48.5
32.8
35.5
28.3
29.4
19.3
22.1
20.3
12.1
14.0
Oldham
Rochdale
7.7
5.7
0%
Bolton
Detached
Bury
37.3
37.5
32.5
20%
Manchester
45.6
Salford
District
Semi-Detached
Source Land Registry House Price Paid data
28
Stpckport
Terraced
12.2
14.6
Tameside
Trafford
18.8
Wigan
Flats
14.2
Average
3.31 There is clearly a changeable picture across the authorities reflecting the different breakdown
in stock profiles. The market in Oldham is dominated by terraced properties with over 50% of its
sales being in this house type, as does Tameside, Rochdale and Bolton. Unsurprisingly,
Manchester and Salfords stock sales are significantly made up of sales of flats. This distribution of
stock sales in terms of house type has changed little since the original GMSHMA was produced.
Lower Quartile House Prices 1996 to 2008
3.32 The DCLG records the lower quartile house prices for each authority across the UK. These
properties represent the lower level of the housing market and are considered to be those most
likely to be able to be purchased for households on lower incomes or households entering the
market for the first time. From the graph below it is clearly evident that lower-quartile house prices
have increased significantly over this period 1996 to 2008, with a particular large increase from
2001 to 2007. In 2008 all districts experienced a decrease, which potentially means that properties
are more affordable – if finance was more accessible.
Figure 3.16 Lower Quartile House Prices 1996-2008
160,000
Bolton
Salford
140,000
Bury
Stockport
Manchester
Tameside
1998
2000
Oldham
Trafford
Rochdale
Wigan
House price (£)
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
1996
1997
1999
2001
2002
Year
Source DCLG
29
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Table 3.4 Lower Quartile House Prices 2007 to 2008
Bolton
Bury
Manchester
Oldham
Rochdale
Salford
Stockport
Tameside
Trafford
Wigan
GM
Central HMA
Southern HMA
North Eastern HMA
North Western HMA
Source DCLG
2007
90,000
102,079
105,000
85,000
87,500
98,000
124,999
100,000
145,000
92,000
2008 % Change
87,000
-3.3
98,000
-4.0
95,000
-9.5
85,000
0.0
85,000
-2.9
94,300
-3.8
120,000
-4.0
95,000
-5.0
135,000
-6.9
88,500
-3.8
100,000
116,000
125,000
90,833
95,520
95,000
108,100
116,667
88,333
91,950
-5.0
-6.8
-6.7
-2.8
-3.7
Figure 3.17 Lower Quartile House Prices 1996-2008
140,000
Lower Quartile House Price (£)
120,000
GM
Central HMA
100,000
Southern HMA
North Eastern HMA
80,000
North Western HMA
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Year
Source: DCLG Housing Live Tables
3.33 Table 3.5 below shows the house price to income levels across Greater Manchester using
modelled income data from CACI (2010) and house price data from the Land Registry (3rd quarter
2009). The districts of Wigan, Tameside, Rochdale and Oldham all have house prices less than
four times that of income levels. Manchesters’ house prices are 5 times that of income and
Trafford almost 6. The average for Greater Manchester is income levels being four and a half
times that of house prices.
30
Table 3.5 Household affordability in Greater Manchester
Bolton
Bury
Manchester
Oldham
Rochdale
Salford
Stockport
Tameside
Trafford
Wigan
Greater Manchester
Mean Household
income (£) 2010
£32,918
£35,748
£29,278
£31,680
£31,413
£31,343
£37,709
£32,324
£39,548
£32,789
Affordability Ratio
House Prices (3rd (Income to House
Quarter 2009)
Price)
£143,484
4.4
£148,552
4.2
£146,035
5.0
£122,147
3.9
£120,459
3.8
£124,531
4.0
£186,409
4.9
£122,259
3.8
£231,437
5.9
£123,212
3.8
£33,092
£150,505
4.5
Source CACI Paycheck and Land Registry Price Paid data
Figure 3.18 Household income distribution – Greater Manchester
160,000
GM
Number of Households
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
Household Income
Source CACI
3.32 The chart above shows household income spread across Greater Manchester clearly
illustrating the concentration of households with incomes between £15,000 and £25,000. There
are also a significant number of households with very low incomes (below £10,000).
3.33 Although the reduction in the property prices, documented previously in the report, and
reduction and stability of interest rates theoretically make it easier for a household to enter the
31
owner-occupied sector, the change in the availability of credit and concerns as to the future
direction of the housing market has meant that this may not be experienced in reality.
3.34 For example, a few months ago the Nationwide Building Society, one of the two biggest
mortgage lenders in the country, was only offering first-time buyers a mortgage if they had a
deposit of at least 15% and the income to price ratio has also been reduced. This change in loan
to value criteria is therefore likely to have a dramatic affect on the ability of potential first-time
buyers to purchase a home.
3.35 The maps overleaf show the distribution of house prices at postcode level across Greater
Manchester and the level of annual change. There are clear concentrations of upper-bracket
values evident within the southern and south eastern areas. There are also indications of pockets
of high house prices in some rural areas and lower values being achieved in surburban areas
towards the east of Manchester.
32
Figure 3.19 Average House Prices in 2009 by Postcode
Average House Price 2009
£390,000 to £3,150,000
£190,000 to £390,000
£100,000 to £190,000
£70,000 to £100,000
£10,000 to £70,000
Figure 3.20 Change in Average House Prices 2008 to 2009
% Change in House Prices
2008-2009
Over 10%
0% to 10%
-10% to 0%
-30% to -10%
Over -30%
33
In Summary
• House prices have shown similar broad trends over time in Greater Manchester, the North
West and England & Wales. Rising rapidly up to the end of 2007 then declining to the end
of 2008;
• Most recent data shows some uplift in both house prices and sales;
• Reductions in house prices have been counter-balanced in affordability terms by tightening
of lending criteria;
• Properties in mortgage arrears and those and being taken into possession by the mortgage
company or private landlords have increased over the last 12 months;
• All HMAs have shown significant downturn in house prices between 2007 and 2009. The
Central HMA having experienced the most increase in house prices and sales in the
original SHMA now experienced the most decrease – reflecting the fragility of the housing
market in this area in its reaction to the economic downturn;
• Flat prices have declined the most from a peak in quarter 3 2007. This was in line with a
sharp decline in new build properties;
• Detached properties have experienced the most recovery in terms of sales
• There is an imbalance in the stock on offer in Greater Manchester represented by semidetached and terraced properties. Terraced properties are dominant in Oldham, Rochdale
and Bolton;
• A full market recovery will not occur until credit availability issues for first time buyers are
resolved.
34
4. Housing Stock Assessment
4.1 The aim of this section is to provide a comprehensive picture of the current housing market in
Greater Manchester and the characteristics and differences in the four constituent Housing Market
Areas. The analysis provides a solid platform to progress the assessment of future housing market
demand and needs.
4.2 The mix of housing stock within a market is a key component regarding its housing ‘offer’ and
its ability to meet current and future housing demand and need. Core distinctions can be made
regarding the relative distribution of an areas stock profile by the key elements of type and tenure.
Table 4.1 Housing Stock breakdown by tenure April 2008
LA
RSL
'Other'
public
Private
Total
Bolton
Bury
Manchester
Oldham
Rochdale
Salford
Stockport
Tameside
Trafford
Wigan
15.3
10.4
13.2
15.4
15.6
24.3
10.2
0.0
0.0
16.6
6.1
5.2
20.5
6.2
8.2
5.5
4.2
23.1
16.3
2.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
78.6
84.4
66.1
78.4
76.2
70.2
85.6
76.9
83.7
81.3
119,254
80,898
213,965
92,639
90,056
104,325
125,049
97,885
95,815
137,788
Greater Manchester
Central HMA
Southern HMA
North Eastern HMA
North Western HMA
12.5
13.0
9.4
10.1
17.0
10.4
15.7
14.9
12.7
4.5
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
77.1
71.2
75.6
77.2
78.5
1,157,674
414,105
434,829
280,580
442,265
4.9
8.0
13.5
9.6
0.1
0.3
81.5
82.0
3,132,543
22,696,246
North West
England
Source HSSA
Figure 4.1 Housing Stock breakdown by tenure and HMA April 2008
90.0
80.0
Greater Manchester
Central HMA
Southern HMA
North Eastern HMA
North Western HMA
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
LA
RSL
'Other' public
Ho use T enur e
Source HSSA 2008
35
Private
4.3 As in the original SHMA it is apparent that the stock profile of Greater Manchester is
dominated at present by private stock (owner occupied and private rented). At 77.1% this dwarfs
the proportion of social-rented at 12.5% and RSL stock representing a further 10.4% (compared
to 9.3% in the original SHMA). Compared to national figures for England more stock is owned
privately (82%) and less held by local authorities (8%) and RSLs (9.6%) compared to Greater
Manchester. The North West is nearer to the England average than Greater Manchester.
4.4 At the HMA spatial scale the chart above indicates that the Central HMA has the lowest level
of private stock but the highest level of RSL stock. The North Western HMA has the highest
proportion of LA owed stock in Greater Manchester yet has the lowest level of RSL ownership than
in the other HMAs. Since the previous SHMA (using data for 2006/7) the North Western HMA is
the only area to increase its share of private sector housing. The Southern HMA decreased its
proportion of private stock from 78.8% in 2006/7 (when it had the highest proportion of all HMAs)
to 75.6% in April 2008.
4.5 Of significance at the local authority level is the high level of social rented stock within
Manchester and Salford (at 33.7% and 29.8% respectively) this is consistent with the previous
SHMA.
Table 4.2 Housing Type in Greater Manchester 2008
Bolton
Bury
Manchester
Oldham
Rochdale
Salford
Stockport
Tameside
Trafford
Wigan
GM
Central HMA
Southern HMA
North Eastern HMA
North Western HMA
Total
Households
113,443
79,041
206,306
91,733
88,311
99,027
123,820
95,129
94,036
133,609
Detached Semi Detached
(%)
(%) Terraced (%)
16.0
35.3
37.1
18.2
38.8
31.0
4.3
32.2
36.0
11.5
33.6
41.9
14.9
33.3
38.6
8.6
37.0
32.5
21.4
42.2
22.2
11.1
38.6
37.1
15.4
44.8
22.3
16.6
46.5
29.2
Flat, Maisonette
or Apartment
11.4
11.8
26.6
12.8
13.0
21.6
14.0
12.8
17.2
7.5
1,124,455
13.8
38.2
32.8
14.9
399,369
424,162
275,173
425,120
9.4
13.7
12.5
14.8
38.0
39.8
35.2
39.4
30.3
26.8
39.2
32.5
21.8
19.2
12.9
13.1
Source: Community Insights 2008, CACI
4.6 The table above indicates that there is an imbalance between the stock types offered in
Greater Manchester represented by semi detached (38.2%) and terraced accommodation (32.8%)
compared to a lower number of detached properties (13.8%) and flats (14.9%). At the local
authority level there is high proportion of terraced stock in Oldham (41.9%) and Rochdale (38.6%).
4.7 Although the data above is not available aggregated to regional or national levels, looking at
Census 2001 figures as a guide the UK as a whole had 28% of terraced stock and 21% Detached
stock highlighting the higher stock imbalance in Greater Manchester.
36
Figure 4.3 Housing Type by HMA 2008
45.0
GM
North Eastern HMA
Central HMA
North Western HMA
Southern HMA
40.0
35.0
Stock (%)
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Detached
Semi Detached
Terraced
House Type
Flat, Maisonette or
Apartment
Source: Community Insights 2008, CACI
4.8 At the HMA scale the chart above illustrates that semi-detached stock is particularly well
represented in both the Southern and North Western HMAs, almost 40% of all stock in these
areas.
4.9 As also highlighted in the original SHMA and through Making Housing Count (2007, Ecotec)
there is a real need in Greater Manchester to ensure a more balanced housing offer to capture
household and employment growth.
Table 4.3 Housing Size in Greater Manchester 2008
Bolton
Bury
Manchester
Oldham
Rochdale
Salford
Stockport
Tameside
Trafford
Wigan
GM
Central HMA
Southern HMA
North Eastern HMA
North Western HMA
1-2 Rooms* (%)
2.1
1.8
5.6
2.1
2.5
2.7
2.1
2.1
2.5
1.6
3-4 Rooms*(%)
32.7
29.1
32.7
36.9
34.6
32.2
24.8
34.5
22.7
26.1
5-6 Rooms* (%)
49.7
50.6
51.2
48.9
48.6
52.6
52.0
51.9
51.1
58.4
7+ Rooms* (%)
15.5
18.5
10.5
12.1
14.3
12.5
21.1
11.6
23.7
14.0
2.5
3.6
3.4
2.2
2.1
30.6
29.2
26.7
35.3
30.0
51.5
51.6
51.4
49.8
52.8
15.4
15.6
18.4
12.7
15.1
* Rooms refers to ‘all rooms’ not just ‘number of bedrooms’
Source Community Insights 2008 (CACI)
4.10 The table above suggests that a significant amount of stock located in Greater Manchester is
of a medium size with over 50% of homes containing 5-6 rooms and on average very few homes
have only 1-2 rooms (2.5%). Significantly, by comparison Manchester has 5.6% of properties with
37
1-2 rooms reflecting the unique property, economic and amenity-based ‘offer’ of the city centre
market. the Southern HMA holds the largest proportion of large 7+ rooms at 18.4%.
Figure 4.4 Housing Size by HMA 2008
60.0
GM
North Eastern HMA
Central HMA
North Western HMA
Southern HMA
50.0
Stock (%)
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
1-2 Rooms
3-4 Rooms
5-6 Rooms
7+ Rooms
Source Community Insights, 2008
4.11 At the local authority level Bury, Stockport and Trafford all have proportions of larger
properties higher than the average for Greater Manchester. As highlighted in the original SHMA
using Census data for 2001 certain types of stock and tenures are often spatially concentrated
within localised areas impacting on the ‘feel’ of neighbourhoods. For example, there are strong
concentrations of terraced properties in East Manchester, urban areas of Oldham and Rochdale
and in the inner areas of Salford.
Housing Stock Change
4.12 A number of factors affect the overall mix of housing including the construction of new
properties, demolitions and change of tenure for example though Right to Buy schemes, although
given the numbers involved the impact on the overall stock profile is relatively limited. Although
conversions also affect the mix to some extent it is the three elements mentioned here that are
concentrated on in this analysis.
4.13 The table below illustrates the change in housing tenure since the last SHMA, which used
data for 2007 and compares this to the latest data for tenure in 2008.
4.14 Although the volume of social stock decreased between 2001 and 2007 as highlighted in the
original SHMA the latest data for 2008 highlights that social stock has increased by 1% over the
year to 2008 (an increase of 2,505 in actual terms). This increase at the county level represents
increases at district level in Manchester, Tameside, Stockport and Trafford. Salford on the other
hand decreased their level of social stock by –3.6% over this period.
4.15 The only authority to decrease its total stock between 2007 and 2008 is Oldham (-0.3%) and
Manchester and Salford increased their total stock by 2.7%. In terms of HMAs the Southern HMA
increased its share of social stock by 2.9%. The North Western HMA was the only HMA to show
any decrease in social housing stock. The charts below illustrate these changes at HMA and local
authority level due to Right to Buy as well as demolition.
38
4.16 Overall the result of these shifts and the development of new stock have resulted in an overall
increase in the number of houses across Greater Manchester of over 13,000 units between 2007
and 2008.
Table 4.4 Housing Tenure Change 2007-2008
2007
Social
Stock
2008
Social
Total Stock Stock
Private
Stock
Private
Stock
Absolute Change 2007-2008 % Change 2007-2008
Social
Private Total
Social
Private
Total
Stock
Stock
Stock
Stock
Stock
Stock
Total
Stock
Bolton
25,544 92,323
117,867 25,505 93,749 119,254
-39
1,426
1,387
-0.2
1.5
1.2
Bury
12,672 67,554
80,226 12,639 68,259 80,898
-33
705
672
-0.3
1.0
0.8
Manchester
70,624 137,671
208,295 72,509 141,456 213,965
1,885
3,785
5,670
2.7
2.7
2.7
Oldham
20,238 72,687
92,925 20,036 72,603 92,639
-202
-84
-286
-1.0
-0.1
-0.3
Rochdale
22,047 67,622
89,669 21,435 68,621 90,056
-612
999
387
-2.8
1.5
0.4
Salford
32,252 69,339
101,591 31,107 73,218 104,325
-1145
3,879
2,734
-3.6
5.6
2.7
Stockport
17,415 107,331
124,746 18,045 107,004 125,049
630
-327
303
3.6
-0.3
0.2
Tameside
20,833 76,377
97,210 22,574 75,311 97,885
1,741
-1,066
675
8.4
-1.4
0.7
Trafford
15,103 80,225
95,328 15,592 80,223 95,815
489
-2
487
3.2
0.0
0.5
Wigan
26,011 109,937
135,948 25,802 111,986 137,788
-209
2,049
1,840
-0.8
1.9
1.4
GM
262,739 881,066 1,143,805 265244 892430 1157674
2505 11,364 13,869
1.0
1.3
1.2
CHMA
117,979 287,235
405,214 119208 294897 414105
1229
7,662
8,891
1.0
2.7
2.2
SHMA
103,142 325,227
428,369 106146 328683 434829
3004
3,456
6,460
2.9
1.1
1.5
NE HMA
63,118 216,686
279,804
64045 216535 280580
927
-151
776
1.5
-0.1
0.3
NW HMA
96,479 339,153
435,632
95053 347212 442265
-1426
8,059
6,633
-1.5
2.4
1.5
Source HSSA
Figure 4.5 Housing Tenure Change 2007 to 2008 in Greater Manchester by District
10.0
8.0
S oc ial S toc k
P rivate S toc k
% Change (2007-2008)
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
Bolton
Bur y
Manc hes ter
Oldham
Roc hdale
Salf or d
- 2.0
- 4.0
- 6.0
Dis tr ict
39
Stoc kpor t
Tames ide
Tr af f ord
W igan
Figure 4.6 Housing Tenure Change 2007 to 2008 in Greater Manchester by HMA
Greater Manchester
16000
Central HMA
14000
Southern HMA
North Eastern HMA
Absolute change (2007-2008)
12000
North Western HMA
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
-2000
Social Stock
Private Stock
-4000
Total Stock
House Tenure
4.17 The table below illustrates the total number of completions between 2003 and 2009. The net
completions figures are total completions with deductions for demolitions and losses from change
of use.
4.18 During the last year 2008/9 there has been a significant decrease of over -45% in the number
of housing completions across Greater Manchester. This represents in actual terms a decrease
from 13,645 in 2007/8 to a completion figure of 7,468 in 2008/9. Manchester Bolton and Wigans
number of completions declined the most in this period. Only Oldham showed any increase in net
completions over the year to 2009.
Table 4.5 Total Net Completions – 2003 to 2009
2003/4
388
372
2004/5
426
723
2005/6
761
909
Manchester
Oldham
Rochdale
Salford
Stockport
Tameside
Trafford
Wigan
2,281
270
119
821
333
515
597
680
2,693
135
58
853
405
383
746
775
2,929
132
350
453
489
684
689
923
Greater Manchester
6,376
7,197
8,319
Bolton
Bury
2006/7 2007/8
927 1,222
346
384
4,697
315
129
1,718
741
563
509
955
Source: Local Authorities
40
Average
%
completion Change
rate 07/08 to
2008/9 2003-09 08/09
584
718
-52.2
273
501
-28.9
5,187
399
418
2,606
632
790
366
1,641
2,108
401
382
1,553
395
652
344
776
3,316
275
243
1,334
499
598
542
958
-59.4
0.5
-8.6
-40.4
-37.5
-17.5
-6.0
-52.7
10,900 13,645
7,468
8,984
-45.3
Figure 4.7 Number of Completed Units (net) in Greater Manchester 2003 to 2009
16,000
14,000
Greater Manchester
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2003/4
2004/5
2005/6
2006/7
2007/8
2008/9
Source Local Authorities
Figure 4.8 Average net completion rate in Greater Manchester between 2003 and 2009.
3500
3000
2500
Completed Units
Average net completion rate 2003-09
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Bolton
Bury
Manchester
Oldham
Rochdale
Salford
Stockport
Tameside
Trafford
Wigan
Source Local Authorities
4.19 Using HSSA records assessment the original SHMA looked at the level of affordable housing
stock built between 1997 and 2007. It is now possible to look at the change in the affordable
housing completions stock from 2006/7 to 2007/8 as highlighted in the table below.
41
Table 4.6 Affordable Housing Completions 2006/7 to 2007/8
2006/07
2007/08
Absolute
Change
06/07 to 07/08
(Units)
Bolton
Bury
Manchester
Oldham
Rochdale
Salford
Stockport
Tameside
Trafford
Wigan
115
33
288
57
12
24
55
49
100
2
180
29
259
65
49
276
65
54
85
20
65
-4
-29
8
37
252
10
5
-15
18
Greater Manchester
Central HMA
Southern HMA
North Eastern HMA
North Western HMA
735
412
443
118
174
1,082
620
409
168
505
347
208
-34
50
331
Source: HSSA
4.20 The highest recorded affordable completion figure in the original SHMA was in the year
1997/98 with a figure of 1,825 this then decreased to a low in 2003/4 of just 553 affordable
completed units. From 2006/7 to 2007/8 there has been and increase of from 735 units to 1,082
completed affordable units. The chart below illustrates the difference over this period at local
authority level. Salford increased its levels of affordable housing the most over the year by 252
units.
Figure 4.9 Affordable Housing Completions by district 2006/7 to 2007/8
350
Affordable Units Completed
2006/07
2007/08
300
250
200
150
100
50
District
Source HSSA
42
an
W
ig
d
ffo
r
Tr
a
e
es
id
Ta
m
St
oc
kp
or
t
Sa
lfo
rd
e
R
oc
hd
al
ha
m
O
ld
st
er
ch
e
M
an
Bu
ry
Bo
lto
n
0
Table 4.7 Estimated numbers of private sector properties cleared
2003/4
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
Bolton
Bury
Manchester
Oldham
Rochdale
Salford
Stockport
Tameside
Trafford
Wigan
7
15
339
46
34
319
0
12
4
9
3
5
413
0
22
260
0
0
2
11
3
0
291
8
10
500
0
24
0
10
0
27
560
42
3
387
0
38
0
10
Greater Manchester
Central HMA
Southern HMA
North Eastern HMA
North Western HMA
785
662
343
92
350
716
675
415
22
279
846
791
291
42
513
1067
947
560
83
424
2007/08 Average 2003/4
to 2007/8
3
3
95
28
174
355
140
47
1
14
165
326
0
0
33
21
0
1
17
11
628
339
174
174
280
808
683
357
83
369
Source HSSA
Figure 4.10 Estimated numbers of properties cleared by HMA 2003/4 to 2007/8
Greater Manchester
North Eastern HMA
1200
Central HMA
North Western HMA
Southern HMA
Demolitions (Units)
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2003/4
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
Year
Source HSSA 2008
4.21 At the Greater Manchester level it is apparent from the table and chart above that the annual
number of private sector properties demolished has increased over the period 2003/4 to 2006/7
from 785 to 1,067 properties. Significantly, in 2007/8 the number of properties cleared decreased
in Greater Manchester to 628 properties. The number of clearances in Manchester and Salford
decreased the most over this period and Oldham and Bury increased the most. This would reflect
the Housing Market Renewal programmes in these areas – Manchester and Salford coming to the
end of their clearance programmes and Oldham and Rochdale implementing theirs. At the HMA
scale the chart above indicates that, on average, the highest number of annual demolitions
occurred within the Central HMA reaching a peak of clearance activity of 947 cleared properties in
2006/7.
43
4.22 CLG record the levels of Right to Buy at a local authority level as highlighted in the table
below. Whilst the absolute levels of Right to Buy provide a clear indication of the scale of the
impact on the stock as a whole it is important to assess this in relation to the overall levels of
stock. Using the HSSA data the second table relates the levels of Right to Buy to the total stock
within each authority.
Table 4.8 Levels of Right to Buy
1998/99 1999/2000 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 Total
1999-08
Bolton
Bury
Manchester
Oldham
Rochdale
Salford
Stockport
Tameside
Trafford
Wigan
138
59
492
104
103
114
88
211
106
125
150
104
291
98
175
175
102
192
147
249
231
92
695
153
224
152
161
240
133
771
215
299
168
199
347
166
1,018
218
397
328
320
654
243
1,261
467
568
880
438
616
188
1,398
378
384
746
262
413
78
1,282
151
285
572
135
300
65
783
184
307
501
105
186
44
347
146
222
204
59
172
294
207
334
275
409
302
780
254
688
436
264
207
3,275
1,172
8,338
2,114
2,964
3,840
1,869
403
1,463
3,786
Greater Manchester
Central HMA
Southern HMA
North Eastern HMA
North Western HMA
Source HSSA
1,540
712
686
418
436
1,683
613
540
465
678
2,174
1,019
1,028
377
769
2,566
1,146
1,177
514
875
3,478
1,621
1,613
615
1,250
5,593
2,443
2,001
1,035
2,557
4,914
2,398
1,914
762
2,238
3,352
1,854
1,417
436
1,499
2,509
1,284
888
491
1,130
1,415
551
406
368
641
29,224
13,641
11,670
5,481
12,073
Table 4.9 Proportion of Social Stock sold in Greater Manchester
Bolton
Bury
Manchester
Oldham
Rochdale
Salford
Stockport
Tameside
Trafford
Wigan
Greater Manchester
Central HMA
Southern HMA
North Eastern HMA
North Western HMA
Social Stock Right to Buy Sales
Proportion of
2000/01
2001-2008 2000/01 stock sold
27,985
2,987
11%
13,385
1,009
8%
80,026
7,555
9%
24,534
1,912
8%
25,485
2,686
11%
36,566
3,551
10%
19,509
1,679
9%
23,879
0
0
17,048
1,210
7%
29,775
3,412
11%
298,192
133,640
116,583
73,898
107,711
26,001
12,316
10,444
4,598
10,959
9%
9%
9%
6%
10%
Source HSSA
4.23 Analysis of the data in the tables above indicates that absolute Right to Buy sales of social
stock increased across Greater Manchester from 1,540 in 1989/99 to a peak of 5,593 in 2003/4.
From this point there has been a year on year decrease, which continued in 2007/8 with 1,415
44
Right to Buy properties sold. This could be due to the fact that the most attractive properties have
already been sold or that a cap has been placed on the discount available this restricting the
affordability.
4.24 At the HMA spatial scale Right to Buy sales have been the highest within the Central HMA
(13,641 units) and the lowest in the North Eastern HMA (5,481) across the period 19898/99 to
2007/8. Manchester, Salford and Wigan sold the highest volume of stock over the period.
4.25 Long-term vacancy represents an important indicator when examining the relative quality of
stock and the demand of housing in certain areas.
4.26 Over the period highlighted in the original SHMA (2001 to 2007) there had been a 6%
reduction in the total number of vacant housing units in Greater Manchester. Of those vacant,
there had been a reduction of 12% in units that had been vacant in excess of 6 months (classed
as long term). The table below shows that there had been a rise of 4.1% in total vacant stock in
Greater Manchester between 2007 and 2008 although vacant social stock had reduced by –8.6%.
Of this vacant stock in Greater Manchester 57.9% had been vacant for over 6 months. Oldham,
Salford and Trafford had considerable increases in their long-term vacant property levels.
4.27 At the HMA level the level of social vacant stock decreased the most in the North Eastern
HMA at –19.8%. This HMA also decreased its levels of private sector vacant properties by –5.9% .
Private sector vacant properties increased the most in the Central HMA at 13.8%. Of this vacant
stock in the HMAs over 90% in the North Eastern HMA and 87% in the Central HMA had been
vacant for over 6 months.
Table 4.10 Proportion of Vacant Units 2007-2008
2007
2008
Total
Stock
Social Private
Vacant
Stock sector Total >6mths
Bolton
Bury
Manchester
Oldham
Rochdale
Salford
Stockport
Tameside
Trafford
Wigan
Greater
Manchester
Central HMA
Southern HMA
North Eastern
HMA
North Western
HMA
392
323
2,748
729
598
912
262
542
276
468
2,409 2,801
2,665 2,988
9,752 12,500
4,585 5,314
2,657 3,255
4,352 5,264
3,985 4,247
4,456 4,998
2,209 2,485
4,135 4,603
7,250 41,205 48,455
3,936 16,313 20,249
3,286 15,946 19,232
Percentage Change 2007-2008
Total
Total
Stock
Stock Social Private
Vacant
Social Private
Vacant Stock sector Total
>6mths
Stock sector Total >6mths (%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
1,227
424 2,407 2,831
1,353
265 3,250 3,515
4,986 2,591 10,660 13,251
487
906 4,454 5,360
1,539
239 3,008 3,247
554
898 4,890 5,788
2,198
242 3,833 4,075
1,497
354 3,540 3,894
903
265 3,009 3,274
2,338
439 4,759 5,198
1,348
1,357
7,179
3,273
1,811
2,664
2,403
1,755
2,266
2,914
8.2
-18.0
-5.7
24.3
-60.0
-1.5
-7.6
-34.7
-4.0
-6.2
-0.1
22.0
9.3
-2.9
13.2
12.4
-3.8
-20.6
36.2
15.1
1.1
17.6
6.0
0.9
-0.2
10.0
-4.0
-22.1
31.8
12.9
9.9
0.3
44.0
572.1
17.7
380.9
9.3
17.2
150.9
24.6
17,082 6,623 43,810 50,433 26,970
6,443 3,754 18,559 22,313 12,109
8,087 3,098 17,502 20,600 11,848
-8.6
-4.6
-5.7
6.3
13.8
9.8
4.1
10.2
7.1
57.9
87.9
46.5
1,869 11,698 13,567
3,523 1,499 11,002 12,501
6,839
-19.8
-5.9
-7.9
94.1
2,095 13,561 15,656
5,472 2,026 15,306 17,332
8,283
-3.3
12.9
10.7
51.4
Source HSSA, 2008
45
Figure 4.11 Proportion of Vacant Units 2007-2008 by HMA
100.0
80.0
60.0
Greater Manchester
Central HMA
Southern HMA
North Eastern HMA
% Change
North Western HMA
40.0
20.0
0.0
Social Stock (%)
Private sector (%)
Total (%)
-20.0
-40.0
Tenure
Source HSSA 2008
46
Total Stock Vacant
>6mths (%)
In Summary
• Social stock decreased between 2001 and 2007 in Greater Manchester but increased
slightly between 2007 and 2008;
• There is an inbalance between the stock types in Greater Manchester, particularly with
terraced properties in Oldham and Rochdale;
• During 2008/9 there has been a significant decrease in the number of housing completions
particularly in Manchester, Bolton and Wigan;
• There has been a rise in the level of total vacant stock in Greater Manchester and in
particular in long-term vacant stock. This is compared to a decrease in during the period
2001 to 2007;
• In 2007/8 the number of properties cleared decreased in Greater Manchester. The number
of clearances in Manchester and Salford decreased the most over this period and Oldham
and Bury increased the most. This would reflect the Housing Market Renewal programmes
in these areas – Manchester and Salford coming to the end of their clearance programmes
and Oldham and Rochdale implementing theirs.
47
5. Future Housing Market
5.1 The aim of this section is to assess the future housing market and the issues that will face the
housing market in the short and long term. The forecasts later in this section rely heavily on the
Greater Manchester Forecasting Model (GMFM).
Table 5.1 Extant planning permissions
Bolton
Bury
Manchester
Oldham
Rochdale
Salford
Stockport
Tameside
Trafford
Wigan
2007/8
5,028
3,337
22,265
3,565
3,786
17,250
2,387
6,057
3,593
5,433
2008/9
4,660
3,062
24,297
2,984
4,274
13,963
2,119
5,756
3,857
4,103
Greater Manchester
72,701
69,075
Source Local Authority Planning Departments
5.2 Extant planning permissions, as set out in the table above, are an important indication of the
potential future supply of housing. Although a proportion of permissions will never reach the
development stage the numbers do represent a future component of supply which policy is unable
to direct. The number of extant planning permissions in Greater Manchester decreased by 3,358
from a figure of 70,314 in 2007/8. This could either be because these permissions have been
taken forward or that fewer new permissions have actually been sought. Manchester, Rochdale
and Trafford experienced an increase in the number of extant planning permissions over this
period.
Table 5.2 Densities of New Dwellings Built
2001-2004
Bolton
Bury
Manchester
Oldham
Rochdale
Salford
Stockport
Tameside
Trafford
Wigan
Greater Manchester
Central HMA
Southern HMA
North Eastern HMA
North Western HMA
Source: DCLG, Housing tables.
Dwellings per hectare
2005-2008
% Change
32
47
46.9
38
49
28.9
79
106
34.2
28
47
67.9
25
46
84.0
63
108
71.4
37
39
5.4
42
50
19.0
42
46
9.5
31
45
45.2
42
61
53
32
41
58
87
64
48
62
48
39.8
41.3
20.9
50.5
51.8
Figure 5.1 Densities of New Dwellings Built by HMA
100
90
Density per Ha
80
70
Greater Manchester
Central HMA
Southern HMA
North Eastern HMA
North Western HMA
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2001-2004
Year
2005-2008
5.3 Analysis of the table above indicates that the density of new dwellings within Greater
Manchester has increased significantly between the two time periods in question – almost 40%
increase in density of dwellings by 2008, although this is a result of an explicit change in policy to
increase densities. The largest increase was in Rochdale at 84%.
5.4 At the HMA spatial scale both the North Western and North Eastern HMAs experienced
increases of over 50% in dwelling density however, the Central HMAC still had the highest density
of new dwellings per hectare at 87.
5.5 Similar increases were identified in the original GMSHMA with the introduction of large
numbers of flatted properties being identified as the key driver of this change. However, also
highlighted were new innovative schemes which have emerged over the years which deliver highdensity quality family accommodation. These density figures are important considerations for
future housing demand when considering land capacity.
5.6 The issues drawn out in this report have highlighted the affect of the recession on the housing
market and certainly in the short term it is important to recognise that a large proportion of this
future supply may not be realised over the next few years. The fall in land values and decline in
purchaser confidence leaves the development market particularly vulnerable making the potential
supply picture decidedly uncertain.
Economic growth scenarios
5.7 The Greater Manchester Forecasting Model (GMFM) was developed by Oxford Economics
(OE) and is now managed by New Economy on behalf of AGMA. It provides a useful base for the
assessment of future economic growth and housing requirements.
5.8 As OE note, however, the model should be viewed as one piece of evidence in making policy
decisions and tracking economic, demographic and household change. As with all models it is
subject to margins of error which increase as the level of geographical detail becomes smaller.
5.9 There are three key assumptions that underpin the base forecasts:
ƒ Macroeconomic conditions (e.g. oil prices, inflation, exchange rates, world demand,
government spending, consumer spending)
49
ƒ
Past Trends: Inherent supply side factors underpin performance – i.e. the model
assumes that supply side pressures exert the same level of influence that they have
done previously
ƒ
Basic economic relationships: this includes relationships such as people and jobs,
spending and jobs, economic growth and migration etc
5.10 Since the original SHMA there have been annual updates of the GMFM and this update
reflects this. In particular, the model has been updated in light of the economic downturn and the
baseline scenario is used in this analysis to some up the changes. Some headline outputs from
the model are as follows in light of the recession experienced since the last SHMA
Short-term:
5.11 Over the 2008-2011 period, Greater Manchester GVA is expected to decrease by £410.8m to
£42.0bn, a fall of 1.0%. Between 2008 and 2009, GVA is expected to fall in Greater Manchester by
4.8% - lower than the regional annual decrease of 5.0% but higher than the national decrease of
4.5%.
5.12 Greater Manchester is expected to weather the storm of the economic recession better than
the North West. It is expected to experience a smaller decrease in GVA between 2008 and 2009,
followed by a sharper upturn in GVA in 2010 – a 1.3% increase in GM against a 1.1% increase
regionally.
5.13 The return to growth is also expected to be stronger in the short term in GM in comparison
with the UK. Despite experiencing a more significant fall in GVA up to 2009, GM is expected to
experience a growth in 2009-2010 of 1.3% - more than twice that of the UK’s expected 0.6%
growth.
5.14 The recession is expected to have a significant impact on employment in the short-term.
Between 2008 and 2009, the number of jobs is expected to fall by 2.8% (over 36,000) – lower than
the North West (3.0% fall) but higher than the UK (a 2.6% fall). This is forecast to slow between
2009 and 2010 but still result in a further reduction of over 16,200 jobs.
Long-term:
5.15 Across a longer timeframe, Greater Manchester is expected to return to economic growth by
2010 across all districts, and to return to the 2008 level of GVA by 2012. Between 2011 and 2032,
the average annual growth in GVA is expected to be around 2.4%, compared to 2.2% in the North
West and 2.6% in the UK.
5.16 Employment is expected to return to the 2008 level much slower than GVA. A return to
employment growth is expected by 2011, with a long-term annual average growth rate of 0.6% per
annum between 2011 and 2032. Even with this rate of growth, employment won’t reach the 2008
pre-recession level until 2015.
50
5.17 As a result of this, the long-term increase in productivity is expected to be higher between
2011 and 2032 than between 2001 and 2008. Greater Manchester is expected to see a return to
increasing productivity by 2010, at a rate of around 1.8% per annum – higher than the 1.1% per
annum growth between 2001 and 2008. Simultaneously, the North West and the UK are also
expected to experience growth rates in productivity along similar lines (1.8% and 1.9% per annum
respectively).
5.18 Population increases are expected to continue to be unaffected by the recession. One risk of
the recession comes from significant shifts in migration patterns, which may affect these forecasts.
However, Greater Manchester is still expected to experience an annual growth of around 0.4% in
population between 2011 and 2032 driven by the high rate of natural increase.
5.19 The structure of the economy will not change significantly, with Financial and Professional
Services driving employment and GVA growth in the city region. The resilience of the professional
service sector is an important factor in this forecast – if it is merely deferring its contraction there
could be a larger correction in employment in the City Region than currently forecast.
Manufacturing services will continue to see a reduced level of employment but will show increased
productivity and higher GVA, as the industry moves towards high-tech and capital-intensive
production.
5.20 The recession is expected to have important and long-lasting effects on the economy into the
next decade. The recession is much more severe than was expected this time last year, and as
such the updated model shows a much more significant fall in GVA, as well as more prolonged
effects on employment and productivity. This filters down into other areas of the model, and is
reflected in the decreasing importance of certain sectors in the GM economy, as well as forecast
reductions in demand for employment land, the demand for occupations across the board and
changes in domestic and international migration. Important to the state of the economy is how
soon different indicators return to pre-recession levels. The table below highlights when Greater
Manchester, the North West and the UK return to the 2008 level for a range of indicators.
Table 5.3 Dates when respective indicators return to 2008 pre-recession levels
AREA
Bolton
Bury
Manchester
Oldham
Rochdale
Salford
Stockport
Tameside
Trafford
Wigan
Greater Manchester
North West
United Kingdom
EMPLOYMENT
GROSS VALUE
ADDED
PRODUCTIVITY
Post 2032
2017
2013
2028
2023
2015
2017
Post 2032
2015
2017
2012
2012
2011
2013
2012
2012
2012
2013
2012
2012
2011
2011
2010
2011
2011
2010
2010
2011
2010
2011
2015
2019
2016
2012
2012
2012
2010
2010
2010
Source: GMFM
51
5.21 As can be seen from the table above, across Greater Manchester, the level of employment is
expected to return to 2008 levels by 2015, ahead of both the North West (2019) and the UK (2016)
showing the relatively quick return to form for the GM economy.
5.22 GVA is also expected to return to pre-recession levels quite soon. Greater Manchester GVA
is expected to return to 2008 levels by 2012, mirroring both the North West and UK.
5.23 Due to the changing nature of employment and GVA, productivity is expected to return to prerecession levels sooner – as early as 2010. This will also be accompanied by expected higher
average annual increases in productivity in the long-term.
5.24 In terms of employment there is a marked difference as to how the individual districts will
return to pre recession levels. In Bolton and Tameside, for example it is predicted by the model
that it will be post 2032 until employment returns to the employment levels it had before the
recession.
5.25 The tables below reflect the main outputs from the current Baseline GMFM for 2009 that are
useful to this study up to the year 2030
Figure 5.2 Baseline Economic Outcomes, 2009-2030
PRODUCTIVITY
NORTH WESTERN HMA
NORTH EASTERN HMA
SOUTHERN HMA
EMPLOYMENT
CENTRAL HMA
NORTH WEST
GREATER MANCHESTER
GVA
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%
2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0%
CAGR (%) - 2009 - 2030
Source GMFM
5.26 The chart above shows that Productivity growth is more equal than that of employment
growth between the North West and GM and between the different HMAs. Employment growth is
expected to be highest in Greater Manchester than the North West as a whole. This is similar to
that in the original SHMA but the growth is not as high as in other areas. The North Eastern HMA
has the lowest employment growth in this period and the Central HMA the highest levels of growth
that is then reflected in overall GVA levels.
52
5.27 In the baseline case future growth to 2030 continues to be dominated by the service industry
and particularly by Business Services and Other Public Sector Services.
Figure 5.3 Baseline Employment Growth, 2009-2030
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
OTHER (PUBLIC SECTOR) SERVICES
RETAIL AND DISTRIBUTION
BUSINESS SERVICES
MANUFACTURING
CONSTRUCTION
HOTELS AND CATERING
TRANSPORT
FINANCIAL SERVICES
COMMUNICATIONS
AGRICULTURE
UTILITIES
EXTRACTION
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
BASELINE EMPLOYMENT CHANGE (% CAGR), 2009-2030
BASELINE EMPLOYMENT CHANGE (000s), 2009-2030
Source GMFM
Figure 5.4 Baseline Occupational Growth, 2009-2030
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
HIGH-END SERVICE OCCUPATIONS
MEDIUM / LOW-END SERVICE
OCCUPATIONS
MAINLY MANUAL OCCUPATIONS
ELEMENTARY OCCUPATIONS
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
BASELINE EMPLOYMENT CHANGE (% CAGR), 2009-2030
BASELINE EMPLOYMENT CHANGE (000s), 2009-2030
Source GMFM
5.28 The trends identified previously in this report regarding growth in the high-end service sector
will continue as highlighted above. Elementary occupations are also expected to grow over the
period 2009 to 2030 in spite of a contraction in such occupations over recent times. As in the
53
previous SHMA this raises the prospect of increasing polarisation within Greater Manchester –
with more people employed in higher-end occupations and also more employed in elementary
occupations. This polarisation will be reflected between the different HMAs based on the
occupational breakdown of these areas.
Figure 5.5 Baseline Household Growth in Greater Manchester
Population
Households
Average Household Size*
2009
2,582,786
1,112,204
2.32
Average
Absolute
2030 Change p.a.
2,816,859
11,146
1,306,268
9,241
2.16
-0.17*
*absolute change not per annum
Source: GMFM Baseline scenario 2009
5.29 In terms of household growth between 2009 and 2030 using the baseline GMFM model the
annual average change in population is estimated at 11,146 and households 9,241. This gives a
household size figure of 2.16 by 2030. The household size figure which has been documented as
decreasing over recent years, therefore is predicted to continue to decrease.
There are significant risks to the forecasts, particularly in light of the economic downturn, most
prominently on the downside:
• Migration flows: It is extremely difficult to predict how sensitive migration will be to the
overall economy. With little prosperity anywhere in Europe there may not be the outflow
expected as jobs are lost (and rising unemployment would support this). Changes in EU
law and differential pace of recovery across countries may well exert an influence.
Migration flows may be weaker than Oxford Economics forecast;
• Public finances: The state of public finances is perilous. An aggressive cull in the public
sector, or even wage cuts, plus aggressive taxation increases, could exert downward
pressures on demand;
• Regulation: Though it appears regulation post credit crunch may remain relatively light,
the possibility of making the UK a less attractive FDI location for professional services
remains;
• Global demand and protectionism: Job loss has been severe across the globe (the US
for example has lost something in the order of 6-8 million net jobs) and recovery may be
slow. In addition there is likely to be if not explicit then certainly implicit protectionism to
try to solve domestic job problems, which will impact on job opportunities;
• Oil prices: Should oil prices spike up again to $90 or above there will be a knock-on
effect on global demand and thus the GM economy;
• Banking failures: The worst of the financial crisis appears over, but there is still
uncertainty. Banking failures across Europe could derail a fragile recovery.
In general, Oxford Economics’ policy advice remains as last year – greater flexibility in strategies
will be required. Land-use, skills, and infrastructure issues are all less certain than pre-recession.
In addition there is a need to understand the job loss problem and the skills sets / financial issues
of those out of work, while job creation will be back at the top of the policy agenda. Therefore the
‘fire fighting’ and recession response will be the overarching policy challenge for the year ahead
whilst not losing sight of long term strategic aims;
54
In Summary
• The number of extant planning permissions in Greater Manchester decreased between
2007/8 and 2008/9. Manchester, Rochdale and Trafford, however, experienced an
increase in the number of extant planning permissions over this period;
• The density of new dwellings within Greater Manchester has increased significantly from
2000 – almost 40% increase in density of dwellings by 2008. The largest increase was in
Rochdale at 84%;
• In the short term, due to the recession, it is important to recognise that a large proportion of
the future supply may not be realised over the next few years;
• The fall in land values and decline in purchaser confidence leaves the development market
particularly vulnerable making the potential supply picture decidedly uncertain;
• In the short term Greater Manchester is expected to weather the storm of the economic
recession better than the North West and the return to growth is also expected to be
stronger in the short term in GM in comparison with the UK;
• Across a longer timeframe, Greater Manchester is expected to return to economic growth
by 2010 across all districts, and to return to the 2008 level of GVA by 2012
• In terms of employment there is a marked difference as to how the individual districts will
return to pre recession levels.
• In the baseline case future growth to 2030 continues to be dominated by the service
industry and particularly by Business Services and Other Public Sector Services.;
• There is a prospect of increasing polarisation within Greater Manchester – with more
people employed in higher-end occupations and also more employed in elementary
occupations;
• The household size figure which has been documented as decreasing over recent year is
set to continue to decrease;
• Recession response will be the overarching policy challenge for the year ahead but the
long term strategic goals must not be lost.
55
6. Review of findings
6.1 As highlighted in the introduction the SHMA report produced in 2008 set out a number of
findings. This section reviews these findings and highlights where these still hold true and
where they need to be revised in the light of updated information.
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A growing population and falling household size is still significantly boosting the demand for
housing, a greater proportion of which is in the private rented sector;
Similarly, the structure of the economy continues to shift by both sector, occupation and
skill level towards the service sector, again having an impact on the future demand profile
for housing;
The original SHMA report identified a considerable reduction in the number of vacant
properties within the social rented sector further reinforcing the demand for this sector.
More recent data shows that this trend has continued and intensified with a further
reduction of –8.6% in the number of vacant social units between 2007 and 2008. However,
overall vacancy rates have risen by 4.1%;
There is a continued need to diversify the housing offer available, particularly in city and
town centre markets. However, this is increasingly difficult in the current climate as
developers are reluctant to bring forward sites, particularly in higher risk locations;
Supply of new housing continues to be uneven across the HMAs. Household numbers are
increasing most quickly in Central HMA but the housing supply in this area is dominated by
apartments. Completions in the North Western HMA are more balanced in terms of
property type;
Average house prices and the number of sales have decreased across the conurbation.
Central HMA has seen the most significant decreases, which supports the assertion in the
previous SHMA that price growth was being driven by speculator and investor activity
rather than owner occupied purchase;
The impact of the credit crunch is worse than expected as highlighted by the depth of
house price reduction and sales as well as GMFM recovery predictions on production.
There has been tightening of lending as predicted, which has dampened market demand
despite lower affordability ratios as buyers struggle to raise the necessary deposits and
secure finance;
Demand for social rented stock remains high and in particular for family accommodation.
Supply is not meeting this demand however.
7. Review of recommendations
7.1 The original SHMA set out a series of recommendations for policy development. This section
reviews these recommendations in the light of the new analysis produced in this report.
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In the light of the likely short-term nature of the credit crunch it was felt that the policy
options available at a local level to significantly alter market conditions were limited and
that it was better for Greater Manchester to “sit out” the credit crunch. National policy
measures, such as the stamp duty payment holiday, the Mortgage Rescue Scheme and
Income Support for mortgage interest do appear to have cushioned the housing market
from some of the potentially more extreme effects of the recession. Bringing forward
spending to encourage the development of social housing appears to have had limited
impact in addressing increased demand for affordable housing, but at this stage it is
difficult to identify what more GM policy makers could have done to bring forward
development. The recent Local Investment Plan, developed in partnership with the HCA,
and the associated £30 million additional NAHP funding will go some way to addressing
this issue, and it is suggested that that investment should be targeted in areas where
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demand for social housing is at it’s highest i.e. in areas of most significant deprivation, or in
areas where affordability ratios are highest.
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The original SHMA report identified that despite the credit crunch, in the long-term, demand
for housing would increase and it was recommended that AGMA need to put in place
delivery models to maximise the number of new housing completions. In addition, new
development needed to diversify the offer across the conurbation but particularly in the city
and town centres. The updated analysis shows that this recommendation holds true, whilst
recognising that in the short-term at least market conditions are not conducive to delivery of
AGMA’s housing growth ambitions. The second Local Investment Plan, to be developed in
partnership with the HCA, will set out a strategic approach to housing growth in Greater
Manchester to maximise the impact of what will undoubtedly be reduced funding streams
and will seek to identify new delivery models, options to make the most of public sector
land assets, and interventions to encourage investment and more effective management of
the growing private rented sector.
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Such an approach will also strengthen AGMA’s position in relation to housing and
regeneration. The original report identified a need to be clear about regeneration priorities
to maximise the impact of limited funding, and to put in place strong mechanisms for
engaging the private sector. The report recommended that AGMA should hold firm in it’s
policy approach, rather than relaxing conditions to attract investment, and this is again
suggested to be the most appropriate approach. As with growth, the current and second
Local Investment Plan will provide AGMA with a coherent approach to identifying
regeneration and investment priorities, and such a coherent approach will provide a firm
platform from which to engage the private sector in the achievement of AGMA’s
regeneration ambitions.
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Bridging the affordability gap should remain as a priority for Greater Manchester. Despite
significant falls in average house prices, the lack of accessible finance means that in
practice housing remains unaffordable for many. AGMA needs to work closely with lenders
to explore options for overcoming challenges to mortgage accessibility. The second Local
Investment Plan will pursue options for Local Authority mortgages and open a dialogue
with key mortgage lenders (facilitated by CLG and HCA) to discuss options for moving
forwards
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