Work of the Task Force on
the post-2020 Census
Strategy: potential
scenarios for the long-term
collection of European
population and housing
statistics
Item 7 of the revised draft agenda
Working Group on Population and
Housing Censuses
Luxembourg, 18-19 September 2014
Overview
• European statistics on population and housing
beyond 2020: extrapolating ongoing changes
• Origin and mandate of the Task Force
• Initial discussion and activities
• Considerations
• Two model scenarios
• Questions for discussion by the Working Group
2
A revolution in census-taking
• In 2011, around half of European countries used
'non-traditional' census methods
• Growing use of administrative data sources
• Population registers
• Building / address registers
• Other administrative records
• and sample survey data
• Existing surveys
• Ad hoc / census-specific surveys
3
Reflecting national-level changes
Great differences exist between countries in terms of the
types and extent of change in census methods – but
some common themes can be seen
• Data sources
• Combinations of new and different data sources
• Greater use of internet-based data collection
• More frequent data – a moving image not a detailed
•
•
snapshot
More flexible, user defined, outputs
Greater geographical detail – 1km² grid
4
A need to redesign European
census-type statistics
• A long process – we need to think ahead around
10 years
• Need to take into account current situation and
likely developments over 10 years:
- methodological and data sources changes
- continuing differences between countries
- new needs for statistics
- changing political, social, technological and
financial environment
5
Task Force on the post-2020
Census Strategy
• - Census experts nominated by
• Denmark, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, Latvia,
Sweden and the UK
• - Key Commission users of the statistics
• Reporting to the Directors of Social Statistics
• Meetings in February and June 2014
• Next meeting in October
6
Questionnaire on plans for censustype statistics beyond 2020
• Developed by the Task Force as a way of better
understanding likely future data availability:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Data sources
Availability of current census topics
Ability to follow current harmonised definitions
Level of disaggregation
Cross-tabulations
Frequency of data collection
1 km² grid data
7
Questionnaire results - highlights
• 27 replies
• Several 'refusals' – "too early to give a meaningful
reply"
• 19 countries will use administrative sources
• 13 of these combined with other data sources
• At least some data available annually from 16
countries
• Particularly for person topics
• Some 1km² grid data possible in majority of
countries
• Confidentiality problems cited
8
Looking to the future
• We are looking at least 10 years ahead – this
presents opportunities as well as challenges
• What will be feasible in the future?
New methods and data sources, changing economic,
legal and policy environment
• What will be needed in the future?
User needs and priorities will change. How to ensure
that the statistics remain relevant?
9
Looking to the future - 2
• Need for an open and flexible approach
• Defining a meaningful data collection that will be
feasible, even if
• a substantial lead time is needed to prepare a
census
• it is not yet immediately possible
• some additional development will be needed
• Maintain close contacts with users – trying to
define likely core data requirements for the
future
10
Considering the burden on NSIs
Balancing needs for statistics against
burden/resource requirements
• Overlap with existing data collections
• Some existing data requirements may be replaced
by a future census data collection – particularly if
this were annual
• A more permanent or continuous data collection
can result in greater efficiency and reduced costs
• Need for short-term support?
11
Two scenarios for population and
housing statistics beyond 2020
• Providing a framework for complex and interrelated issues…
• two model scenarios for discussion
• agreed by the Task Force
• Different aspects of the scenarios based on the
results of the questionnaire
• For example, a majority of countries expected that
at least some annual data would be available
12
Scenario A
• Two parts:
• i) Annual collection of population data, starting in
around 2024, limited to a small number of key
topics with little or no cross-tabulation.
• Topics 'place of usual residence', 'age' and 'sex'
would be geo-referenced to a 1km² grid.
13
Scenario A (cont.)
• ii) A full census-type data collection for 2031.
• The topics, disaggregations, cross-tabulations
would be relatively detailed.
• Data would be produced at both national and
regional levels, and could also include some
additional topics for which information would be
collected at 1km² grid level.
14
Scenario B
• Beginning in or after 2024, an annual collection
of data based on a 1km² grid. Initial focus on a
limited number of key variables
• Gradual increase in the number of variables
collected annually (although many not to a 1km²
grid)
• By 2031, there would be an annual data
collection largely equivalent to the existing full
data collection
15
Common issues for both scenarios
• Disclosure control issues for 1km grid data must
be taken into account in both scenarios
• To be based on experience and best practice in
different Member States
• Building on 2021 experience
• If sample data need to be used, the use of small
area estimation techniques will need to be
developed - for detailed geographical areas or for
a 1km² grid.
16
Questions for discussion…
• What are the administrative data sources available in your
country that could potentially be used for population
statistics purposes - in about 10 years from now? Do these
sources cover the whole territory of the country or are some
sources only available in certain regions?
• Are administrative sources also available that allow for the
production of statistics relating to households and their
composition?
• What are the types of barriers that may make the statistical
use of these administrative sources difficult?
• What changes in the availability of data sources can be
foreseen between now and 2024? For example, are there
expected (or desired) to be legislative changes granting
easier access to administrative data?
17
• To what extent do the proposed scenarios meet user needs
as currently understood at national level? Are there ways of
minimising the risks that changing needs will reduce the
relevance of the future census? – possibly by ensuring that
the approaches adopted are flexible enough to evolve over
time.
• With regard to the timeliness of the data collection, what
deadlines for the supply of data to Eurostat would be
feasible? Could annual data be supplied within 12-18
months?
• It is possible that Eurostat could establish a grants
programme to assist Member States in areas such as
methodological development or the evaluation of potential
data sources. Would these grants help with the
implementation of either of these scenarios? How could the
grants be used?
18
With regard to the 1km² grid data
• What are the problems and difficulties (legal,
technical, lack of expertise) associated with geocoding
basic person topic information to a 1 km² grid?
• Does your NSI have good ongoing cooperation with
the national mapping and cadastral authorities?
• There can be particular confidentiality issues
associated with 1km² grid-reference data. What
disclosure control measures do you use (or would you
consider) to protect these data? (Record swapping
has been used successfully in several Member States)
19
1.
2.
3.
4.
Administrative sources in 10 yrs. – availability, coverage
Admin sources relating to households (composition)?
Barriers restricting use of admin sources
Changes foreseen or expected up to 2024 in administrative data
availability
5. Scenarios' flexibility - meeting national needs & risks related to
changes
6. Could annual data be supplied within 12-18 months?
7. Grants for MS: applicability, areas (methodology, data source
evaluation), usage, new data sources
8. What are the problems and difficulties with 1 km² grid?
9. Co-operation with the national mapping and cadastral
authorities?
10. Confidentiality issues with 1km² grid - disclosure control
methods?
20