Confidential
GAS SALES, PEAK,
AND CUSTOMER
FORECAST:
1995
CONDFIDENTIAL
BALTIMORE GAS AND ELECTRIC COMPANY
Please address any questions or comments concerning this Forecast to Mark D. Case (291-4543)
or Ronald T. Jennings (291-4548). This forecast supersedes the 1994 Sales, Peak, and Customer
Forecast: Gas.
Confidential
Confidential
Table of Contents
User Notes ................................................................................................................................... ii
I. FORECAST OVERVIEW........................................................................................................ 1
A. INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 3
B. REFERENCE CASE OVERVIEW ............................................................................... 3
C. HIGH AND LOW CASE OVERVIEW ........................................................................ 6
II. REFERENCE CASE ............................................................................................................... 9
A. REFERENCE FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ................................................................ 11
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Residential Analysis ........................................................................................... 16
Commercial and Industrial Analysis ................................................................... 18
Bethlehem Steel Analysis ................................................................................... 19
Interruptible Gas Sales ........................................................................................ 20
Design Day/Peak Day Analyses.......................................................................... 21
Gas Conservation and New Gas Technologies ................................................... 23
B. REFERENCE CASE METHODOLOGY ................................................................... 25
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Firm Sales ........................................................................................................... 25
Automatic Interruptible Gas Service (Schedule AIS) ......................................... 28
Interruptible Gas Service (Schedule IS).............................................................. 28
Bethlehem Steel .................................................................................................. 28
Design Day Requirements .................................................................................. 29
a. Design Day Weather Criteria .................................................................... 29
b. Design Day Sendout Methodology ........................................................... 30
III. FORECAST RANGE........................................................................................................... 33
A. OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................ 35
B. FORECAST METHODOLOGY ................................................................................. 44
1. Residential Forecast ............................................................................................ 44
2. Firm Commercial and Industrial Forecast .......................................................... 46
3. Interruptible Forecast .......................................................................................... 47
4. Bethlehem Steel Forecast.................................................................................... 49
5. Design Day Forecast ........................................................................................... 50
IV. GAS APPENDICES ............................................................................................................ 51
Appendix A: Historical Annual Gas Sales, Customers and Sendout by Rate Class,
1985-1994 ..................................................................................................... 53
Appendix B: Historical Winter Gas Sales by Rate Class 1985-1995 ..................... 55
Appendix C: Historical Winter Heating Degree Hours, 1984-1995 ....................... 56
Appendix D: Distributed Normal Temperatures .................................................... 57
Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
i
Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department
Confidential
User Notes
1. This forecast supersedes the Baltimore Gas and Electric Company's 1994 Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: Gas.
2. All historical volumes and sendout reflect actual weather and actual days of service
interruption.
3. All forecast sales, peaks, and gas sendout assume normal weather conditions.
4. All forecast sales and sendout are stated on a calendar year basis. Historical sales prior to
1991 are on a billing month basis.
5. Sales and customer projections for the first five years of the forecast period are reviewed and
revised (if appropriate) at least quarterly.
6. Gas used the Company's electric generation and corporate gas supply facilities is not included
in this forecast.
7. This document is included as Exhibit A of the Company's 1995 Gas Purchase and
Conservation Plan filed November 1, 1995 with the Maryland Public Service
Commission.
Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
ii
Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department
Confidential
I. FORECAST OVERVIEW
Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
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Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department
Confidential
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Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
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Confidential
A. INTRODUCTION
The Baltimore Gas and Electric Company's Gas Sales, Peak, and Customer Forecast: 1995
projects annual gas sales and delivery service volumes and number of gas customers served for
the period 1995-2006.* In addition, this forecast includes projections of peak day and of design
day gas sendout levels for each forecast year.
The 1995 long term gas forecast presents three gas demand scenarios,Reference, High, and Low
Cases, with the Reference Case representing the "most likely" future scenario. The High and
Low Cases delineate a range of possible gas demand scenarios and incorporate differing
assumptions about demand-influencing factors such as: the rate of household growth, the
adoption of new gas-using technologies, and quantity of fuel-switching by Bethlehem Steel and
other interruptible customers.
B. REFERENCE CASE OVERVIEW
For the 1996-2000 period analyzed in the Gas Purchase and Conservation Plan, on average:
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Total gas sales and delivery service volumes grow 1.4% or approximately 1,598 MDth
annually;
Residential gas sales increase 1.9% or approximately 829 MDth annually;
Commercial and industrial volumes including Bethlehem Steel (both firm and
interruptible sales and delivery service volumes) increase 1.1% or
approximately 769 MDth annually;
Interruptible sales and delivery service volumes excluding Bethlehem Steel increase
0.5% or approximately 124 MDth annually;
Bethlehem Steel sales and delivery service volumes (both firm and interruptible) grow
0.2% or approximately 43 Mdth annually. Steel output is assumed to be 3.6
million tons annually;
Total Customers served increase by approximately 14,700 per year including average
annual residential customer growth of 14,300 households;
A Design Day firm sendout requirement for the winter of 1995-96 of 790 MDth, increasing
over the next four winters by approximately 20 MDth per year, reaching 870 MDth in
the winter of 1999-2000.
The residential gas sales and customer forecast assumes an increasing gas market penetration
among newly-constructed housing units. In 1994, approximately 62% of new residential units
built in the Company's service territory installed gas heat. This percentage is expected to
increase to approximately 80% in 2000. In addition, the forecast currently projects 5,500 annual
gas conversions.
The development of new gas-using technologies together with efforts to promote gas
conservation through demand side management will have offsetting effects on the demand for
natural gas. This year, the forecast incorporates gas conservation programs targeted at residential
*
Gas used by the Company's own electric generation and corporate gas supply facilities is not included in this
forecast.
Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
3
Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department
Confidential
Gas Summary
Reference Case
(Thousands of Dekatherms)
Total
Firm
Interruptible Delivery Peak Day Design Day
Year
Volume
Volume
Volume
Service
Sendout
Sendout
(1), (2)
(1)
(1)
(2)
1985
96,882
65,091
31,790
30,592
677
1986
97,376
67,200
30,176
31,552 (5) 625
1987
102,941
66,369
36,572
40,118 (5) 636
1988
109,529
69,214
40,315
40,827 (5) 669
1989
110,694
68,637
42,060
45,230 (5) 663
1990
102,631
63,715
38,916
40,239 (5) 654
(3) 1991
101,488
69,212
37,276
40,673 (5) 610
1992
108,574
72,101
36,472
40,741 (5) 609
1993
107,975
74,507
33,467
38,818 (5) 658
1994
108,728
75,418
33,309
40,327 (5) 762
(4) 1995
110,449
71,762
38,687
42,871 (5) 706
1996
112,955
75,017
37,938
41,587
693
790
1997
114,695
76,439
38,256
42,399
707
810
1998
116,221
77,862
38,359
42,819
721
830
1999
117,914
79,293
38,621
43,098
736
850
2000
119,346
80,741
38,606
43,189
751
870
2001
120,722
82,131
38,591
43,214
765
890
2002
122,250
83,525
38,725
43,384
780
910
2003
123,741
84,880
38,860
43,553
794
935
2004
125,151
86,136
39,015
43,738
807
955
2005
126,548
87,415
39,133
43,890
821
975
2006
127,939
88,669
39,270
43,820
835
995
Notes: (1) Includes delivery service volumes.
(2) Reflects actual weather and interruptions through June 1995; 30
year normal weather and forecast days of interruption assumed for
the forecast period
(3) All sales prior to 1991 are on a billing month basis; 1991 and
subsequent years are on a calendar month basis.
(4) Actual data through June 1995.
(5) Includes interruptible volumes.
Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
4
Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department
Confidential
Gas Summary
(Thousands of Dekatherms)
High Case
Year
1994
(4) 1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Total
Volume
(1), (2)
108,728
112,134
116,634
119,055
121,292
123,724
125,885
127,983
130,251
132,499
134,670
136,849
139,033
Firm
Interruptible
Volume
Volume
(1)
(1)
75,418
33,309
71,868
40,266
75,769
40,864
77,785
41,270
79,845
41,447
81,929
41,795
84,034
41,851
86,074
41,910
88,129
42,122
90,163
42,336
92,096
42,574
94,079
42,770
96,044
42,989
Delivery
Service
40,327
44,371
44,405
45,321
45,834
46,216
46,386
46,503
46,767
47,032
47,317
47,566
47,576
Peak Day Design Day
Sendout
Sendout
(2)
(5) 762
(5) 706
699
795
718
820
739
850
760
880
781
910
802
935
823
965
843
995
864
1,025
885
1,055
906
1,085
Low Case
Total
Firm
Interruptible Delivery Peak Day Design Day
Year
Volume
Volume
Volume
Service
Sendout
Sendout
(1), (2)
(1)
(1)
(2)
1994
108,728
75,418
33,309
40,327 (5) 762
(4) 1995
108,596
71,627
36,969
41,222 (5) 706
1996
106,659
74,122
32,537
36,248
687
780
1997
107,510
74,864
32,646
36,861
694
790
1998
108,220
75,566
32,654
37,169
701
805
1999
109,022
76,252
32,770
37,294
709
815
2000
109,655
76,913
32,741
37,297
716
825
2001
110,314
77,516
32,799
37,369
723
840
2002
110,980
78,117
32,862
37,445
729
850
2003
111,580
78,653
32,927
37,518
735
860
2004
112,083
79,085
32,998
37,594
741
870
2005
112,565
79,509
33,056
37,658
746
880
2006
113,007
79,887
33,121
37,506
751
890
Notes: (1) Includes delivery service volumes.
(2) Reflects actual weather and interruptions through June 1995; 30
year normal weather and forecast days of interruption assumed for
the forecast period
(3) All sales prior to 1991 are on a billing month basis; 1991 and
subsequent years are on a calendar month basis.
(4) Actual data through June 1995.
(5) Includes interruptible volumes.
Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
5
Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department
Confidential
customers. By 2000, Company sponsored conservation programs are expected to reduce annual
gas use by 1,033 MDth. However, in 2000, this expected reduction in gas demand is partially
offset by a projected 437 MDth net increase in gas demand arising from the implementation of
new technologies including gas air-conditioning and natural gas vehicles.
Design Day firm sendout requirements are derived from projected firm customer counts and a
statistical relationship between daily use per customer by tariff class and daily weather
conditions. Projected Design Day sendout requirements assume average daily weather
conditions of 2.7 oF and 15 m.p.h. wind speed. In addition, Design Day sendout requirements
include the projected impacts of gas conservation programs and new technologies.
C. HIGH AND LOW CASE OVERVIEW
For the 1996-2000 period discussed in the Gas Purchase and Conservation Plan, the gas forecast
range bounds are as follows:
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Total gas sales and delivery service volumes' growth of 0.7% (Low Case) to 1.9% (High
Case) or approximately 751 to 2,313 MDth annually;
Residential gas sales growth of 0.9% in the Low Case to 2.7% in the High Case or
approximately 366 to 1,229 MDth annually;
Growth in commercial and industrial volumes including Bethlehem Steel (both firm
and interruptible sales and delivery service volumes) of 0.6% in the Low Case
to 1.4% in the High Case or approximately 385 to 1,083 MDth annually;
Interruptible sales and delivery service volumes excluding Bethlehem Steel growth of
0.2% in the Low Case to 0.8% in the High Case or approximately 47 to 202 MDth
annually;
Annual Bethlehem Steel volumes increasing 0.0% or 4 MDth annually in the Low Case
and 0.2% or 45 MDth annually in the High Case. Steel production is assumed to
be 3.2 million tons in the Low Case and 3.9 million tons in the High Case;
Total Customers served increases by approximately 9,100 annually in the Low Case and
19,600 per year in the High Case including average annual residential gas
customer growth of 8,800 to 19,000 households;
A Design Day firm sendout requirement for the winter of 1995-96 ranging from 780 MDth
in the Low Case to 795 MDth in the High Case, increasing over the next four
winters to 825 MDth (Low Case) to 910 MDth (High Case) in the winter of 19992000.
Residential gas customer growth varies between the three cases due to differences in the expected
number of new home completions, the annual volume of residential conversions, and the
assumed gas market penetration ratio. In the High Case, for the period 1996-2000, new home
gas completions average 15,200 versus 6,800 in the Low Case. Similarly, in 2000, residential
conversions range from 6,600 in the High Case to 4,400 in the Low Case. As in the Reference
Case, the development of new gas-using technologies together with efforts to promote gas
conservation will have offsetting effects on the demand for natural gas.
Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
6
Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department
Confidential
This forecast is included as Exhibit A of the 1995 Gas Purchase and Conservation Plan filed
November 1, 1995 with the Maryland Public Service Commission.
Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
7
Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department
Confidential
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Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
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Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department
Confidential
II. REFERENCE CASE
Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
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Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department
Confidential
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Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
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Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department
Confidential
A. REFERENCE FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS
Total Gas Volumes: Reference Case
History and Forecast
140
Millions of Dekatherms
120
100
80
60
40
Actual Volume s
through June 1995
20
0
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
System
1995
Firm
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Interruptible
The following discusses the Reference Case forecast for natural gas sales and delivery service for
the years 1996 through 2006. The Reference Case is the most likely gas demand scenario.
Alternate High and Low Cases are presented in Section III.
Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
11
Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department
Forecast Annual Gas Volumes 1995-2006
Reference Case
(Thousands of Dekatherms)
1995
(1)
39,561
4,571
34,990
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
42,709
4,874
37,835
43,524
4,944
38,580
44,347
4,991
39,356
45,195
5,026
40,170
46,026
5,049
40,976
46,827
5,072
41,755
47,625
5,095
42,530
48,391
5,118
43,273
49,165
5,142
44,024
49,971
5,165
44,805
50,758
5,189
45,569
Small Commercial and
Industrial (2)
w/o Space Heating
With Space Heating
Natural Gas Vehicles
7,033
2,059
4,920
54
7,546
2,149
5,315
82
7,719
2,179
5,393
147
7,919
2,211
5,473
235
8,098
2,243
5,552
304
8,311
2,276
5,631
404
8,506
2,309
5,710
487
8,718
2,344
5,787
587
8,931
2,379
5,864
688
9,043
2,415
5,939
689
9,155
2,453
6,014
689
9,268
2,491
6,088
689
Large Commercial and
Industrial (2)
Schedule C-Large
Schedule ID
Schedule AIS
Schedule IS
Bethlehem Steel
63,856
19,137
31
1,628
24,808
18,251
62,700
20,222
40
1,530
23,458
17,450
63,452
20,656
40
1,557
23,678
17,521
63,955
21,057
40
1,572
23,763
17,523
64,620
21,459
40
1,593
23,966
17,562
65,010
21,864
40
1,588
23,895
17,623
65,389
22,258
40
1,600
24,013
17,477
65,907
22,642
40
1,616
24,131
17,477
66,418
23,018
40
1,632
24,251
17,477
66,943
23,388
40
1,652
24,370
17,493
67,423
23,750
40
1,665
24,491
17,477
67,914
24,104
40
1,682
24,611
17,477
Residential
w/o Space Heating
with Space Heating
Total Sales and Delivery
Service Volumes
110,449 112,955 114,695 116,221 117,914 119,346 120,722 122,250 123,741 125,151 126,548 127,939
Delivery Service
42,871
41,587
42,399
42,819
43,098
43,189
43,214
43,384
43,553
43,738
43,890
43,820
Total Sales
67,578 71,368 72,296
Notes:
(1) Reflects actual volumes through June 1995.
(2) Includes delivery service volumes.
73,402
74,816
76,158
77,508
78,867
80,188
81,413
82,658
84,119
Percent Change in Annual Gas Volumes 1995-2006
Reference Case
Residential
w/o Space Heating
with Space Heating
1995
(1)
-1.8%
-15.7%
0.4%
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
8.0%
6.6%
8.1%
1.9%
1.4%
2.0%
1.9%
1.0%
2.0%
1.9%
0.7%
2.1%
1.8%
0.5%
2.0%
1.7%
0.5%
1.9%
1.7%
0.5%
1.9%
1.6%
0.5%
1.7%
1.6%
0.5%
1.7%
1.6%
0.5%
1.8%
1.6%
0.5%
1.7%
Small Commercial and
Industrial (2)
w/o Space Heating
With Space Heating
Natural Gas Vehicles
-1.6%
-0.9%
-2.5%
90.9%
7.3%
4.4%
8.0%
52.5%
2.3%
1.4%
1.5%
79.1%
2.6%
1.4%
1.5%
60.3%
2.3%
1.4%
1.5%
29.1%
2.6%
1.5%
1.4%
33.0%
2.3%
1.5%
1.4%
20.5%
2.5%
1.5%
1.4%
20.7%
2.4%
1.5%
1.3%
17.1%
1.3%
1.5%
1.3%
0.1%
1.2%
1.5%
1.3%
0.0%
1.2%
1.6%
1.2%
0.0%
Large Commercial and
Industrial (2)
Schedule C-Large
Schedule ID
Schedule AIS
Schedule IS
Bethlehem Steel
4.2%
1.0%
-11.9%
-7.0%
8.9%
2.7%
-1.8%
5.7%
28.0%
-6.0%
-5.4%
-4.4%
1.2%
2.1%
0.0%
1.8%
0.9%
0.4%
0.8%
1.9%
0.0%
1.0%
0.4%
0.0%
1.0%
1.9%
0.0%
1.3%
0.9%
0.2%
0.6%
1.9%
0.0%
-0.3%
-0.3%
0.3%
0.6%
1.8%
0.0%
0.8%
0.5%
-0.8%
0.8%
1.7%
0.0%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
0.8%
1.7%
0.0%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
0.8%
1.6%
0.0%
1.2%
0.5%
0.1%
0.7%
1.5%
0.0%
0.8%
0.5%
-0.1%
0.7%
1.5%
0.0%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Total Sales and Delivery
Service Volumes
1.6%
2.3%
1.5%
1.3%
1.5%
1.2%
1.2%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
Delivery Service
6.3%
-3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.7%
0.2%
0.1%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
-0.2%
Total Sales
-1.2%
5.6%
1.3%
Notes:
(1) Reflects actual volumes through June 1995.
(2) Includes delivery service volumes.
1.5%
1.9%
1.8%
1.8%
1.8%
1.7%
1.5%
1.5%
1.8%
Forecast Gas Customers 1995-2006
Reference Case
1995
Residential
w/o Space Heating
with Space Heating
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
511,002 524,848 539,032 553,355 567,873 582,496 597,009 611,492 625,986 640,489 655,005 669,525
106,459 108,524 109,926 110,664 110,945 111,193 111,441 111,689 111,938 112,186 112,434 112,683
404,543 416,324 429,106 442,691 456,928 471,303 485,568 499,803 514,048 528,303 542,571 556,842
Small Commercial and
Industrial
w/o Space Heating
With Space Heating
33,293
10,401
22,892
33,530
10,297
23,233
33,771
10,194
23,577
34,014
10,092
23,922
34,257
9,991
24,266
34,501
9,891
24,610
34,738
9,792
24,946
34,973
9,694
25,279
35,205
9,597
25,608
35,435
9,501
25,934
35,663
9,406
26,257
35,889
9,312
26,577
Large Commercial and
Industrial
Schedule C-Large
Schedule ID
Schedule AIS
Schedule IS
Bethlehem Steel
6,340
6,115
0
99
125
1
6,529
6,302
0
100
126
1
6,722
6,493
0
101
127
1
6,918
6,687
0
102
128
1
7,118
6,885
0
103
129
1
7,319
7,084
0
104
130
1
7,519
7,282
0
105
131
1
7,720
7,481
0
106
132
1
7,921
7,680
0
107
133
1
8,124
7,881
0
108
134
1
8,326
8,081
0
109
135
1
8,530
8,283
0
110
136
1
Total Customers
Note:
Year-end customers
550,635 564,907 579,525 594,287 609,248 624,316 639,266 654,185 669,112 684,048 698,994 713,944
Annual Change in Customers 1995-2006
Reference Case
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
12,850
2,485
10,365
13,846
2,065
11,781
14,184
1,402
12,782
14,324
739
13,585
14,517
280
14,237
14,623
248
14,375
14,513
248
14,265
14,483
248
14,235
14,493
248
14,245
14,503
248
14,255
14,516
248
14,268
14,519
248
14,271
Small Commercial and
Industrial
w/o Space Heating
With Space Heating
215
-105
320
237
-104
341
241
-103
344
243
-102
345
243
-101
344
244
-100
344
237
-99
336
235
-98
333
232
-97
329
230
-96
326
228
-95
323
226
-94
320
Large Commercial and
Industrial
Schedule C-Large
Schedule ID
Schedule AIS
Schedule IS
Bethlehem Steel
173
172
0
-2
3
0
189
187
0
1
1
0
193
191
0
1
1
0
196
194
0
1
1
0
200
198
0
1
1
0
201
199
0
1
1
0
200
198
0
1
1
0
201
199
0
1
1
0
201
199
0
1
1
0
203
201
0
1
1
0
202
200
0
1
1
0
204
202
0
1
1
0
13,238
14,272
14,618
14,763
14,960
15,068
14,950
14,919
14,926
14,936
14,946
14,949
Residential
w/o Space Heating
with Space Heating
Total Customers
Confidential
1. Residential Analysis
Residential Gas Sales
5 Year Average
Millions of Dekatherms
50
47.6
43.1
38.4
40
30
20
10
0
1990-94
1995-99
Actual Volume s
though June 1995
D Class
2000-04
DH Class
Total residential sales increase over time at an average annual rate of 1.7% from 1996 through
2006. In 1994, the Company's gas marketing program achieved a gas heat penetration rate of
approximately 62% among all newly constructed homes in the Company's electric service
territory. In the past five years, greater gas marketing combined with the relative desirability of
gas heat has resulted in a significant increase in the share of new homes built with gas heat. This
forecast assumes a continuation of the Company's gas marketing efforts. In addition, by 2006,
the 1995 Reference Case forecast assumes that 600 new homes in Mt. Airy and Cecil County
(outside the Company's electric service territory) will install BGE gas service each year.
Year
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Forecast New Home
Gas Market Share*
65%
70%
72%
75%
78%
80%
In addition to gas customer growth from new construction, an aggressive conversion program
targeted at customers without existing gas service or without existing gas heat is expected to
result in 5,500 annual gas conversions in 1996 and beyond.
Schedule DH use-per-customer, adjusted to normal weather, falls over the forecast horizon
reflecting increasing furnace and appliance efficiency as well as increasing sales impacts from
BGE-sponsored conservation programs. In contrast, Schedule D normalized use-per-customer is
assumed to continue the upward trend observed over the past several years.
*
Gas Meter Sets in the electric service territory.
Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department
16
Confidential
New Home Gas Market Share
Percent
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Gas Me te rs in Ele ctric Te rritory
0%
1986
1988
1990
1992
History
Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
1994
1996
1998
2000
Forecast
Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department
17
Confidential
2. Commercial and Industrial Analysis
Commercial & Industrial Volumes
5 Year Average
70
Millions of Dekatherms
57.1
60
50
53.7
50.7
40
30
20
10
0
1990-94
Actual Volumes
through June 1995
1995-99
Firm
2000-04
Interruptible
From 1996 through 2006, commercial/industrial sales and delivery service volumes excluding
Bethlehem Steel increase at a 1.2% average annual rate. Interruptible volumes excluding
Bethlehem Steel comprise 22% of total system gas volumes in 1996 and increase at a 0.5%
average annual rate from 1996 to 2006. Using the Gas Planning Department's estimate of natural
gas available for system supply, BGE projects that, on average, there will be approximately 37
equivalent days per year of Schedule IS service interruption during the forecast period.
Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department
18
Confidential
3. Bethlehem Steel Analysis
Bethlehem Steel Volumes
5 Year Average
Millions of Dekatherms
20
16.8
17.7
17.5
1990-94
1995-99
2000-04
15
10
5
0
Actual Volumes
through June 1995
Firm
Interruptible
Bethlehem Steel uses natural gas for three primary purposes:
(1) As feedstock at the L Blast Furnace;
(2) As fuel for the hot strip mill; and,
(3) As boiler fuel for the electric generators at Pennwood.
Recent modifications at the blast furnace have given Bethlehem Steel a greater amount of
flexibility at the blast furnace. Production trials through the winter 1994-95, suggest that
approximately 80% of the natural gas load at the blast furnace can be replaced with fuel oil.
Natural gas reportedly is preferred for operational ease at the hot strip mill; however, if the price
of fuel oil is favorable relative to natural gas, oil is readily substituted for natural gas at
Pennwood. Virtually all of Bethlehem Steel's natural gas demand is met with delivery service
gas.
This forecast projects annual steel production of 3.6 million tons at the Sparrows Point
throughout the forecast period. Beginning in May 1992 and continuing through April 1995,
Bethlehem Steel's firm monthly gas entitlement increased from 375,000 Dth to 750,000 Dth and,
as a result, Bethlehem Steel’s interruptible volumes fell. When this contract provision expired,
Bethlehem Steel's monthly firm entitlement reverted to 375,000 Dth. Throughout the forecast
period, approximately 37 days of service interruption have been assumed for the interruptible
portion of Bethlehem Steel's gas service.
While the Spring 1995 Long Term Fuel Price Forecast does not suggest that Bethlehem Steel will
find it economical to replace some potential natural gas loads with fuel oil at the Pennwood
generators, plant modifications indicate a potential for fuel switching at the blast furnace. The
Reference Case assumes that BGE’s system charge will be sufficiently low to maintain the entire
blast furnace load on natural gas in all but the core winter months. Fuel switching at the blast
furnace is reflected in the projected interruptible volumes for Bethlehem Steel.
Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department
19
Confidential
4. Interruptible Gas Sales
Interruptible Volumes by Source
Excluding Bethlehem Steel
30.0
25.9
26.3
25.7
1990-94
1995-99
2000-04
20.0
10.0
0.0
Actual Volumes
through June 1995
Company Sales
Delivery Service
The projected Schedule IS interruptible volumes contained in this forecast reflect on average 37
full day equivalents of service interruptions per year. The number of days per year on which
interruptible customers will experience curtailments, and the volumes of interruptible sales gas
curtailed are outputs of the Gas Dispatch and Cost Model used by the Company's Gas Planning
Department. Given projected monthly firm and interruptible sales and firm delivery service
volumes, this model schedules least cost supply sources considering contract commitments and
load priorities, and predicts the number of days and quantity of supply interruption for a given
winter season. Currently, Schedule AIS customers are projected to be interrupted on average
35.5 days and Schedule IS customers are estimated to be interrupted on average 37 days in a
winter season.
Annual interruptible volumes excluding Bethlehem Steel average 25.7 million dekatherms over
the forecast period with an average annual growth rate of 0.5%.
Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department
20
Confidential
5. Design Day and Peak Day Analyses
Gas Peak Day Sendout
1000
T housands of Dekatherms
950
900
850
800
750
700
Pe ak day history may
include inte rruptible load.
650
600
1985
1987
1989
History
1991
1993
1995
1997
Design Day Forecast
1999
2001
2003
2005
Peak Day Forecast
Expected Peak Day and Design Day sendout levels increase over time reflecting anticipated
growth in firm demand. The Company defines Design Day weather as any combination of daily
weather conditions generating an expected daily firm sendout equivalent to that occurring at
2.7oF average daily temperature and 15 miles per hour average daily wind speed. Estimated
Design Day sendout includes all firm sales and delivery service loads with standby service. On
Design Day, the Company serves no interruptible loads.
Compared to the 1994 forecast, projected Design Day loads for the 1995-96 winter season have
increased by 10 MDth to 790 MDth. This change is largely due to the impact of the gas
marketing effort on projected customer counts. Projected Design Day loads grow from 790
MDth in 1995-96 to 995 MDth in 2005-06 -- an average annual rate of 2.3% or 20,500 Dth
annually.
Projected Peak Day loads include firm customers' loads as well as interruptible customers' critical
use gas when the average daily temperature is 10oF -- the mean average daily temperature for the
30 coldest January days from 1961 to 1990. Historical Peak Day sendouts reflect actual Peak
Day weather and include several where at least some non-critical interruptible loads were served.
Service to interruptible customers occurred on these days due to relatively warm Peak Day
weather or because adequate gas existed for (partial) interruptible supply.
Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department
21
Confidential
Peak Day History
Date
1/16/65
1/30/66
2/25/67
1/8/68
1/1/69
1/8/70
2/1/71
1/16/72
2/16/73
2/11/74
1/14/75
2/2/76
1/17/77
1/10/78
2/18/79
2/6/80
1/12/81
1/17/82
12/25/83
1/17/84
1/20/85
1/15/86
1/26/87
1/5/88
2/9/89
2/25/90
2/15/91
2/9/92
2/2/93
1/19/94
2/5/95
Day
Saturday
Sunday
Saturday
Monday
Wednesday
Saturday
Monday
Sunday
Friday
Monday
Tuesday
Monday
Monday
Tuesday
Sunday
Wednesday
Monday
Sunday
Sunday
Thursday
Sunday
Wednesday
Monday
Tuesday
Thursday
Sunday
Friday
Sunday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Sunday
Temperature
14
11
18
14
19
7
14
13
19
28
21
16
9
17
14
26
10
0
7
14
1
20
17
15
21
19
26
13
23
3
13
Wind Speed
14
23
22
11
17
14
10
11
20
12
11
13
11
20
12
12
8
8
17
10
20
6
12
12
10
17
20
10
14
8
19
Sendout
308,081
363,966
383,767
394,884
379,563
475,731
484,612
485,328
483,378
488,164
466,344
499,602
551,779
523,752
516,677
534,219
575,068
678,788
637,003
596,594
665,626
624,696
636,040
669,478
663,200
653,886
610,177
609,197
657,691
761,902
706,287
Mcf
Dth, Wet
Dth, Dry
Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department
22
Confidential
6. Gas Conservation and New Gas Technologies
The Company considers the impact of demand side management and new gas and electrotechnologies on the gas system forecast. The following programs are included in the current
forecast:
(1) Gas conservation programs including:
.
.
.
.
Energy Wi$e New Home Program encouraging the construction of energy
efficient homes;
Residential High Efficiency HVAC Program, promoting the purchase of high
efficiency replacement boilers and furnaces;
Conservation Home Improvement Program encouraging customers to make
cost-effective, energy saving improvements to building shells, water
heaters and other equipment;
Conservation Home Improvement Program targeting low-income customers
and aimed at improving building shell characteristics;
(2) Electric programs affecting gas loads including:
.
.
Commercial gas air conditioning;
An Industrial Competitive Program placeholder;
(3) Marketing initiatives aimed at identifying applications for new gas-using
technologies within the Company's service territory including natural gas vehicles.
The overall effect of the gas conservation programs plus the new gas using technologies is to
decrease gas sales by 1,559 MDth by 2006.
Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department
23
Confidential
Gas Conservation Programs
(Thousands of Dekatherms)
Year
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Energy
Residential
Wi$e
Residential Residential Low Income
New Home HVAC
CHIP
CHIP
-7
-88
-3
-41
-38
-102
-31
-92
-100
-116
-44
-164
-185
-134
-44
-244
-289
-152
-44
-325
-412
-172
-44
-405
-545
-194
-44
-485
-675
-215
-44
-566
-810
-236
-44
-646
-952
-259
-44
-693
-1,092
-284
-44
-693
-1,233
-312
-44
-693
Total
Gas
DSM
-140
-262
-425
-607
-810
-1,033
-1,268
-1,499
-1,736
-1,948
-2,114
-2,281
New Gas and Electro-Technologies
(Thousands of Dekatherms
Year
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Gas
Industrial
Air
Competitive
Conditioning Program
79
0
149
-50
183
-100
183
-150
183
-150
183
-150
183
-150
183
-150
183
-150
183
-150
183
-150
183
-150
Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
Natural
Gas
Vehicles
54
82
147
235
304
404
487
587
688
689
689
689
Total
New
Technologies
133
181
230
268
337
437
520
621
721
722
722
722
Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department
24
Confidential
B. REFERENCE CASE METHODOLOGY
1. Firm Sales
Future sales to each firm service class are the product of projected values for two variables: the
"number of customers" and weather normalized "sales per customer". The projected number of
customers in each firm class is based on customer projections for the Company's electric service
territory adjusted for the geographic availability of gas.
The estimation of future sales per customer under normal weather involves a series of analyses of
historical firm sales and weather data:
.
.
.
.
.
Weather-normalized monthly sales for all firm classes are derived from actual data on daily
system gas sendout and daily heating degree hours.
The resulting weather adjustment is then allocated to the firm classes to obtain weathernormalized monthly sales by class.
Weather-normalized monthly sales for each class are divided by the number of customers to
derive use per customer.
The resulting use per customer figures are divided into two components: base or non-weather
sensitive use per customer and weather-sensitive use per customer.
Finally, assumed growth rates are applied to recent historical base and weather-sensitive use
per customer to derive estimates of future use per customer for each class.
Normal weather for each day of the month is established by first distributing or ranking the days
of each month from coldest to warmest. For the coldest day of the month, normal weather is the
average number of heating degree days associated with the thirty coldest days for that month
from 1961-1990. Normal weather for the second coldest day is determined in a similar manner,
and so on.
For the winter season (October through June), a statistical relationship between daily sendout to
all firm customers and daily heating degrees is estimated and used to determine the magnitude of
the weather adjustment for each day's sendout. This weather adjustment is the difference
between estimated daily sendout corresponding to actual weather and the estimated sendout
associated with normal weather. The weather adjustment for a given day is added to the actual
sendout for that day to derive weather normalized sendout.
Each day's actual firm sendout, weather-normalized sendout, and daily weather adjustment are
converted to a billing month basis to determine monthly losses and daily sales. The Company
reads each of the 21 billing sections meters on a different day of the month. Consequently, the
sales billed to customers in a particular month differ from the sales actually made during that
month. Sales billed to customers in a given month include gas consumed in the prior calendar
month and exclude some gas volumes consumed in that month for which the customer is billed
in the following month(s).
In order to calculate billing month sendout, each calendar day is treated as 21 billing days, one
billing day for each billing section. The meter-reading schedule then determines how many
billing days in each calendar day are billed in the current month and how many will be billed in
the following month(s). The total firm sendout for each calendar day is assumed to be distributed
Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department
25
Confidential
evenly among the 21 billing sections and is then multiplied by the number of "current-month"
billing days in that calendar day divided by 21 to obtain the fraction of each day's sendout that
will be billed in the current month. The remaining sendout will be reflected in the following
month's bills. The difference between billing month sendout and actual sales for a given month
are losses and unaccounted for gas. This loss factor is used to determine daily losses which are
used to convert daily sendout, weather normalized daily sendout, and daily weather adjustments
to sales to a billing month basis.
Weather-adjusted sales volumes are allocated among the firm classes according to the relative
weather sensitivity of each class. The relative weather sensitivity of a firm class during the
winter season (October through June) is determined by first performing a linear regression of
monthly sales per customer on monthly heating degree days. The estimated slopes of these
seasonal regressions and the number of customers in each class during a particular month are
used to calculate monthly sales per degree day for each class. For each month, the estimated
monthly sales per degree day for a class divided by the sum of monthly sales per degree day for
all firm classes represents the relative weather sensitivity of that class. When this fraction
multiplied by the aggregate monthly sales weather adjustment for all firm classes, the result is the
class sales weather adjustment used to calculate weather normalized monthly class sales.
Weather normalized monthly sales are divided by the number of customers in each class to
obtain weather normalized monthly sales per customer, and these use-per-customer figures are
adjusted to a fixed-length billing month basis eliminating the month-to-month variation in use
per customer due to differences in billing month length. To convert to a fixed billing month
length, the monthly use per customer is multiplied by a factor equal to the number of billing days
in the average billing month (i.e., 639.1875) divided by the number of actual billing days in the
month.
Next, for each customer class, the historical series of weather-normalized, monthly use-percustomer data is divided into base or non-weather sensitive use per customer and weathersensitive use per customer. All of the use per customer during August is assumed to be the base
usage. A trend line is established between the use-per-customer levels for successive Augusts
and the height of the trend line in each intermediate month becomes the base use-per-customer
for that month. The weather-sensitive use for the month is the difference between base use and
total (weather-normalized) use-per-customer.
For residential non-heating sales and non-residential sales, year-to-year percent changes in the
base and weather-sensitive usage components for a specified month or season are calculated.
These can be used to examine historical trends in base and weather-sensitive use. The assumed
annual growth rates are applied to the most recent base and weather-sensitive usage figures to
arrive at future base and weather-sensitive usage per customer estimates.
For residential customers with gas heat (Schedule DH), the historical trend was used to develop
base use per customer. Weather sensitive use per customer was developed using a simple model
of the gas furnace and boiler stock. Initially, the "historical" weather sensitive use per customer
was determined by examining recent trends in weather sensitive use per customer. Given this
starting point, an assumed annual gas furnace replacement pattern, and an assumed annual level
of demolitions, abandonments and vacancies among the Company's residential customers with
gas heat, changes in the Schedule DH furnace stock and the resulting changes in weather
sensitive use per customer were modeled. As expected, the resulting weather-sensitive, Schedule
DH use per customer is declining over the forecast period.
Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department
26
Confidential
Firm Gas Forecast
History and Forecast
Millions of Dekatherms
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
1985
1987
Actuals through
June 1995
1989
1991
Residential
1993
1995
1997
Small Comm./Ind.
1999
2001
2003
2005
Large Comm./Ind
The annual per-customer base and weather-sensitive usage levels and associated annual growth
rates underlying the 1995 Forecast are shown below for each firm service class. Also listed are
the corresponding average annual historical values for the five-year period of 1990-1994.
1995 Forecast
1990-1994 Average
Volumes*
Percent Change**
Volumes
Percent Change
Weather
Weather
Weather
Weather
Class
Base
Sensitive
Base
Sensitive
Base
Sensitive
Base
Sensitive
D
23.0
23.4
0.0%
1.0%
23.4
24.3
-0.7%
3.8%
DH
29.0
64.5
0.0%
-0.9%
29.9
63.6
-2.0%
0.6%
C
127.0
75.6
1.5%
4.0%
122.7
65.6
1.4%
3.9%
CH
62.5
168.0
0.0%
0.0%
60.1
164.1
0.3%
-0.3%
CL
1550.0
1720.0
-1.0%
-1.0%
1593.3
1792.4
-1.9%
-3.2%
* Starting Point, developed by examination of historical tariff class data.
** Average before load management growth rate for 10 years of forecast.
The historical average use per customer volumes and historical rates of change shown above are
calculated on a fixed billing month basis. In order to develop a calendar month forecast of sales
by tariff class it was assumed that the annual rate of change in use per customer for any tariff
class was the same whether measured on a fixed billing month basis or on a calendar month
basis. Similarly, the annual base and weather sensitive usage (in dekatherms) developed by
applying these growth rates to the historical starting point, are assumed to be the same whether
measured on a fixed billing month basis or on a calendar month basis. Moreover, the base and
weather-sensitive growth rates appearing in the third and fourth columns are not strictly related to
their historic 5-year average counterparts; while the historical averages do convey some
information about recent changes in various use per customer measures, they are not the sole
basis for establishing projected trends in use per customer.
Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department
27
Confidential
2. Automatic Interruptible Gas Service (Schedule AIS)
Automatic Interruptible Service (Schedule AIS) volumes are forecast as a class using the
previous year as a base. For Schedule AIS, growth is assumed at 1.0% annually, about one
average size customer per year. Customers receiving gas service on Schedule AIS are interrupted
by meter control devices installed by the Company. Currently, Schedule AIS customers are
estimated to be interrupted on average 35.5 days in a winter season.
3. Interruptible Gas Service (Schedule IS)
Interruptible Service (Schedule IS) volumes are forecast as a class using the previous year as a
base. For Schedule IS, growth is assumed at 0.5% annually, about one average size customer per
year. Under the requirements of the tariff, all Schedule IS customers have dual fuel capability.
As a result, the potential for fuel switching exists if the price of natural gas is greater than the
price of the customers' alternate fuel(s). The Company's Spring 1995 Long Term Fuel Price
Forecast suggests that low natural gas prices (as compared to residual fuel oil) will discourage
price driven fuel switching throughout the 1995 gas forecast horizon.
The Gas Dispatch and Cost model used by the Gas Planning Department to model gas system
capacity generates projected interruptions based on gas system supply constraints. The projected
volumes interrupted are converted to full day equivalents for the months of November through
April and the Schedule IS forecast is adjusted for the forecast number of days of interruption.
The average number of days of interruption projected for the period covered by this forecast is 37
days.
4. Bethlehem Steel
Bethlehem Steel gas requirements are based on the level of steel production and the amount of
electricity generated at Pennwood. With annual steel production estimated at 3.6 million tons in
1995 and beyond, potential gas needed for this activity is forecast by multiplying projected tons
of steel produced by an estimate of gas use per ton of steel output. Similarly, the gas
requirements for electric generation are developed using estimates of megaWatt-hours generated
on non-by-product fuel. The sum of the projected gas use for steel production and projected gas
used in electric generation equals the projected uninterrupted gas load at Bethlehem Steel in the
absence of fuel switching.
Bethlehem Steel's primary, non-by-product, alternate fuel is residual (No. 6) fuel oil. Bethlehem
Steel is very sensitive to relative fuel prices in several end-uses, including electric generation at
the Sparrows Point plant and gas used in production at the L-blast furnace. For these end-uses,
Bethlehem Steel is assumed to switch from natural gas to fuel oil when gas prices exceed oil
prices. The current forecast assumes that, except during the core winter months, BGE will retain
the full blast furnace natural gas load. In addition, gas prices are projected to be sufficiently low
to retain the Pennwood generators on natural gas throughout the year.
Under the provisions of the Company's current contract, Bethlehem Steel's firm natural gas
entitlement is 375,000 Dth per month for the rest of the forecast period. The remainder of
Bethlehem Steel's gas demand is served on an interruptible basis and, on average, is projected to
be interrupted 37 days annually.
Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department
28
Confidential
5. Design Day Requirements
Design Day firm sendout requirements reflect expected daily firm gas demand given a projected
firm customer count and specific Design Day weather conditions. Gas Planning Department uses
this sendout requirement to determine the total daily gas supply capacity needed to provide firm
gas service with the desired degree of reliability. All else equal, as assumed Design Day weather
conditions become more severe, service reliability increases; that is, more severe Design Day
weather conditions increase the expected Design Day firm load requirement and the associated
planned total daily supply capacity. However, as the severity of Design Day conditions
increases, the likelihood of actually experiencing these conditions decreases.
a. Design Day Weather Criteria
The current Design Day weather conditions (2.7oF average daily temperature and 15 m.p.h.
average daily wind speed) were derived in the Spring 1991 forecast via a two stage process
which first averaged the weather conditions on the three most extreme days in the prior thirty
years and then estimated the period of recurrence of those weather conditions using all available
winter weather data from the Baltimore-Washington International Airport weather station. The
period of recurrence for the 2.7 oF and 15 m.p.h. weather conditions was estimated to be once in
25 to 40 years. However, the weather conditions occurring on January 19, 1994 were more
severe than those on the third coldest day used in the earlier analysis. Maintaining the
methodology of averaging the three coldest days in the prior thirty years resulted in a candidate
Design Day* with a 1.3 oF average daily temperature and 12 m.p.h. average daily wind speed.
All else equal, these more severe candidate Design Day weather conditions would have yielded
higher projected sendout requirements than those associated with the existing Design Day
weather definition. However, in the second stage of the analysis, the period of recurrence of the
candidate Design Day was evaluated using the Winter 1993-94 firm load weather relationship (tstatistics in parentheses)**:
Firm Sendout = 688037 - 9982 * Temperature + 24427 * ln(Wind speed)
(37.412) (-46.528)
(3.572)
R2 = .9406
and historical weather data for the months of November through March, 1950-1994. To proxy
firm sendout for the Company's gas system with the current number and mix of customers under
a wide range of weather conditions, 45 years of historical daily winter weather conditions were
input to the equation above, and the resulting firm sendout series was used to evaluate the period
of recurrence of the current Design Day weather conditions (2.7 oF average daily temperature and
15 m.p.h. average daily wind speed) and the candidate Design Day weather conditions (1.3 oF
*
This weather condition is developed by averaging the weather conditions on the following days:
Temperature
Wind Speed
January 17, 1982
0
8
January 20, 1985
1
20
January 19, 1994
3
8
Average
1.3
12
**
This equation was estimated using weather and sendout data for the months of November 1993 through March
1994. Consistent with pipeline practice, both daily firm sendout and average daily temperature were reported for a
24 hour period beginning at 8 a.m. each day. Hourly wind speed data was not available so the natural log of the
average daily wind speed was calculated for the related calendar day. All weather data is from the United States
Weather Service's Baltimore-Washington International Airport weather station.
Gas Sales, Peak, and
Planning Unit
Customer Forecast: 1995
Gas Planning Department
29
Confidential
average daily temperature and 12 m.p.h. average daily wind speed). The period of recurrence
analysis assumed that the daily sendout series generated by the estimated equation shown above
and the entire history of daily winter weather data is normally distributed. This assumption
follows logically if, as it appears, both temperature and ln(wind speed) are normally distributed.
This analysis indicated that the period of recurrence of the current Design Day weather
conditions was within the previously specified band while the period of recurrence of the
candidate Design Day weather conditions appeared to be somewhat longer. Therefore, it was
decided to maintain the current 2.7 oF temperature and 15 m.p.h. wind speed Design Day weather
definition.
b. Design Day Sendout Methodology
In the previous long-term forecasts, Design Day load projections were developed by evaluating
an econometrically estimated equation using the projected number of firm gas customers. This
yielded the "daily firm sendout" as a function of the projected number and mix of firm gas
customers on the Company's gas system on a day whose weather conditions were equivalent to
the Company's Design Day definition of 2.7 oF average daily temperature and 15 m.p.h. average
wind speed. The "mix" of customers was represented by the broad customer categories "heating"
and "non-heating" customers each of which included customers from several tariff sub-classes*.
Sendout equations were then constructed using these broad customer categories as input
variables. By using these categories to project Design Day gas loads, an implicit assumption is
made that the relative mix of customers within each category is the same in the forecast period as
in the historical period used to estimate the sendout equation. However, the Company's gas
marketing initiatives have targeted the number of residential heating customers as a large
potential source of gas market expansion resulting in an increasing relative share of residential
heating customers within the "heating" customer category. If the Company were to maintain the
broad categories, "heating" and "non-heating" customers, implausibly high Design Day loads will
result unless a certain portion of the residential heating customer growth were excluded from the
base calculation of gas system sendout and then added back into the forecast using an assumed
use per customer on Design Day.
With this forecast, BGE adopts a Design Day methodology focusing on use per customer in each
of the firm tariff sub-classes. Use per customer was chosen as the dependent variable because it
is expected to be relatively stable despite rapid customer growth. Daily Load Research data from
the prior three winter seasons was used to econometrically estimate use per customer as a
function of daily weather conditions. The table below presents the results of this study:
*
Heating customers were defined as those in Schedules DH, CH and CL, while non-heating customers were those in
Schedules D and C.
Gas Sales, Peak, and
Planning Unit
Customer Forecast: 1995
Gas Planning Department
30
Confidential
Se ndout Equations
Daily Use pe r Custome r
By Tariff Class
Tariff
Class
D
Independent Variables
Constant
HDH
0.01432
0.00572
(2.220)
(20.093)
DH
-0.00281
0.01279
(-0.190)
(19.590)
C
0.37762
0.01101
(17.410)
(11.504)
CH
0.08115
0.02807
(1.798)
(14.092)
CL
3.39034
0.34758
(5.202)
(12.082)
t-statistics in parentheses
2
HDH
ln(Wind speed)
0.00001
0.01521
(2.115)
(5.791)
0.00006
0.02635
(4.468)
(4.378)
-0.00001
0.01624
(-0.307)
(1.840)
0.00024
0.04513
(5.984)
(2.458)
0.00016
0.32365
(0.276)
(1.220)
Adjusted
R2
0.9035
0.9154
0.7031
0.8816
0.7404
Projected gas loads for each tariff sub-class are calculated by multiplying the use per customer
projected at the Design Day weather conditions by the forecast number of customer in that class.
Total firm load is then calculated by summing the projected gas system loads for each tariff subclass and calibrating the equation to the gas system loads observed during the "near-design"
weather conditions of January 19, 1994. In addition, the initial results yielded by this procedure
were adjusted to obtain Design Day requirements that appropriately reflect Company sponsored
initiatives including:
.
.
The implementation of Company sponsored conservation programs encouraging more
efficient natural gas use.
The introduction of new gas and electro-technologies including natural gas vehicles.
that are projected to significantly influence gas system load growth. The projected Design Day
load requirements were then rounded to the nearest 5000 Dth.
Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department
31
Confidential
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Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department
32
Confidential
III. FORECAST RANGE
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Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department
33
Confidential
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Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department
34
Confidential
A. OVERVIEW
Total Gas Volumes
History and Forecast
Millions of Dekatherms
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
Actual Volumes
through June 1995
100
95
1985
1987
1989
1991
High
1993
1995
1997
Reference
1999
2001
2003
2005
Low
The 1995 long term gas forecast presents three future gas demand scenarios--Reference, High
and Low Cases. This range is intended to delineate a wide variety of possible future gas demand
scenarios reflecting differing assumptions about demand-influencing factors such as: the rate of
household growth, the adoption of new gas using technologies and the quantity of fuel switching
by dual-fuel, interruptible customers.
Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department
35
Forecast Annual Gas Volumes 1995-2006
High Case
(Thousands of Dekatherms)
1995
(1)
39,630
4,571
35,059
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
43,160
4,879
38,281
44,346
4,958
39,388
45,563
5,010
40,553
46,828
5,046
41,782
48,078
5,070
43,008
49,293
5,092
44,201
50,515
5,114
45,401
51,719
5,137
46,582
52,948
5,160
47,789
54,223
5,183
49,041
55,494
5,206
50,288
Small Commercial and
Industrial (2)
w/o Space Heating
With Space Heating
Natural Gas Vehicles
7,035
2,057
4,924
54
7,589
2,142
5,348
98
7,797
2,168
5,452
176
8,035
2,195
5,557
283
8,249
2,223
5,662
365
8,502
2,251
5,766
485
8,732
2,280
5,868
584
8,983
2,309
5,970
705
9,234
2,339
6,070
826
9,365
2,370
6,170
826
9,497
2,401
6,270
826
9,629
2,434
6,369
826
Large Commercial and
Industrial (2)
Schedule C-Large
Schedule ID
Schedule AIS
Schedule IS
Bethlehem Steel
65,469
19,171
31
1,645
25,291
19,330
65,885
20,481
40
1,542
24,404
19,419
66,912
21,102
40
1,574
24,696
19,500
67,694
21,707
40
1,597
24,847
19,503
68,648
22,313
40
1,626
25,120
19,548
69,306
22,914
40
1,646
25,108
19,598
69,959
23,509
40
1,666
25,294
19,450
70,752
24,090
40
1,691
25,481
19,450
71,546
24,670
40
1,716
25,670
19,450
72,356
25,242
40
1,747
25,859
19,468
73,128
25,818
40
1,769
26,051
19,450
73,911
26,382
40
1,795
26,244
19,450
Residential
w/o Space Heating
with Space Heating
Total Sales and Delivery
Service Volumes
112,134 116,634 119,055 121,292 123,724 125,885 127,983 130,251 132,499 134,670 136,849 139,033
Delivery Service
44,371
44,405
45,321
45,834
46,216
46,386
46,503
46,767
47,032
47,317
47,566
47,576
Total Sales
67,763 72,229 73,734
Notes:
(1) Reflects actual volumes through June 1995.
(2) Includes delivery service volumes.
75,458
77,508
79,499
81,481
83,484
85,466
87,352
89,282
91,457
Percent Change in Annual Gas Volumes 1995-2006
High Case
Residential
w/o Space Heating
with Space Heating
1995
(1)
-1.6%
-15.7%
0.6%
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
8.9%
6.7%
9.2%
2.7%
1.6%
2.9%
2.7%
1.0%
3.0%
2.8%
0.7%
3.0%
2.7%
0.5%
2.9%
2.5%
0.4%
2.8%
2.5%
0.4%
2.7%
2.4%
0.4%
2.6%
2.4%
0.4%
2.6%
2.4%
0.4%
2.6%
2.3%
0.4%
2.5%
Small Commercial and
Industrial (2)
w/o Space Heating
With Space Heating
Natural Gas Vehicles
-1.6%
-1.0%
-2.4%
90.9%
7.9%
4.1%
8.6%
82.6%
2.7%
1.2%
1.9%
79.8%
3.1%
1.2%
1.9%
60.2%
2.7%
1.2%
1.9%
29.0%
3.1%
1.3%
1.8%
33.0%
2.7%
1.3%
1.8%
20.4%
2.9%
1.3%
1.7%
20.8%
2.8%
1.3%
1.7%
17.1%
1.4%
1.3%
1.7%
0.0%
1.4%
1.3%
1.6%
0.0%
1.4%
1.3%
1.6%
0.0%
Large Commercial and
Industrial (2)
Schedule C-Large
Schedule ID
Schedule AIS
Schedule IS
Bethlehem Steel
6.8%
1.1%
-11.9%
-6.0%
11.0%
8.7%
0.6%
6.8%
28.0%
-6.3%
-3.5%
0.5%
1.6%
3.0%
0.0%
2.1%
1.2%
0.4%
1.2%
2.9%
0.0%
1.5%
0.6%
0.0%
1.4%
2.8%
0.0%
1.8%
1.1%
0.2%
1.0%
2.7%
0.0%
1.2%
-0.1%
0.3%
0.9%
2.6%
0.0%
1.2%
0.7%
-0.8%
1.1%
2.5%
0.0%
1.5%
0.7%
0.0%
1.1%
2.4%
0.0%
1.5%
0.7%
0.0%
1.1%
2.3%
0.0%
1.8%
0.7%
0.1%
1.1%
2.3%
0.0%
1.3%
0.7%
-0.1%
1.1%
2.2%
0.0%
1.5%
0.7%
0.0%
3.1%
4.0%
2.1%
1.9%
2.0%
1.7%
1.7%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.6%
1.6%
10.0%
0.1%
2.1%
1.1%
0.8%
0.4%
0.3%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.0%
Total Sales
-0.9%
6.6%
2.1%
Notes:
(1) Reflects actual volumes through June 1995.
(2) Includes delivery service volumes.
2.3%
2.7%
2.6%
2.5%
2.5%
2.4%
2.2%
2.2%
2.4%
Total Sales and Delivery
Service Volumes
Delivery Service
Forecast Gas Customers 1995-2006
High Case
1995
Residential
w/o Space Heating
with Space Heating
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
514,755 533,033 551,852 570,964 590,445 609,833 629,217 648,710 668,391 688,300 708,346 728,578
106,956 109,434 111,116 112,002 112,339 112,637 112,935 113,232 113,530 113,828 114,126 114,424
407,799 423,599 440,736 458,962 478,106 497,196 516,282 535,478 554,861 574,472 594,220 614,154
Small Commercial and
Industrial
w/o Space Heating
With Space Heating
33,365
10,380
22,985
33,689
10,255
23,434
34,020
10,132
23,888
34,354
10,011
24,343
34,690
9,891
24,799
35,018
9,772
25,246
35,342
9,655
25,687
35,663
9,539
26,124
35,983
9,424
26,559
36,305
9,311
26,994
36,625
9,199
27,426
36,945
9,089
27,856
Large Commercial and
Industrial
Schedule C-Large
Schedule ID
Schedule AIS
Schedule IS
Bethlehem Steel
6,391
6,166
0
99
125
1
6,639
6,412
0
100
126
1
6,896
6,667
0
101
127
1
7,157
6,926
0
102
128
1
7,425
7,192
0
103
129
1
7,692
7,457
0
104
130
1
7,961
7,724
0
105
131
1
8,232
7,993
0
106
132
1
8,507
8,266
0
107
133
1
8,786
8,543
0
108
134
1
9,067
8,822
0
109
135
1
9,353
9,106
0
110
136
1
Total Customers
Note:
Year-end customers
554,511 573,361 592,768 612,475 632,560 652,543 672,520 692,605 712,881 733,391 754,038 774,876
Annual Change in Customers 1995-2006
High Case
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
16,603
2,982
13,621
18,278
2,478
15,800
18,819
1,682
17,137
19,112
886
18,226
19,480
336
19,144
19,388
298
19,090
19,384
298
19,086
19,494
298
19,196
19,681
298
19,383
19,909
298
19,611
20,046
298
19,748
20,232
298
19,934
Small Commercial and
Industrial
w/o Space Heating
With Space Heating
287
-126
413
324
-125
449
331
-123
454
334
-121
455
336
-120
456
328
-119
447
324
-117
441
321
-116
437
320
-115
435
322
-113
435
320
-112
432
320
-110
430
Large Commercial and
Industrial
Schedule C-Large
Schedule ID
Schedule AIS
Schedule IS
Bethlehem Steel
224
223
0
-2
3
0
248
246
0
1
1
0
257
255
0
1
1
0
261
259
0
1
1
0
268
266
0
1
1
0
267
265
0
1
1
0
269
267
0
1
1
0
271
269
0
1
1
0
275
273
0
1
1
0
279
277
0
1
1
0
281
279
0
1
1
0
286
284
0
1
1
0
17,114
18,850
19,407
19,707
20,084
19,983
19,977
20,086
20,276
20,510
20,647
20,838
Residential
w/o Space Heating
with Space Heating
Total Customers
Forecast Annual Gas Volumes 1995-2006
Low Case
(Thousands of Dekatherms)
1995
(1)
39,475
4,570
34,905
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
42,166
4,869
37,297
42,555
4,930
37,625
42,926
4,972
37,953
43,298
5,005
38,293
43,629
5,029
38,600
43,921
5,053
38,869
44,206
5,076
39,130
44,441
5,100
39,341
44,664
5,124
39,540
44,897
5,148
39,749
45,095
5,172
39,922
Small Commercial and
Industrial (2)
w/o Space Heating
With Space Heating
Natural Gas Vehicles
7,023
2,060
4,916
47
7,495
2,155
5,275
65
7,633
2,190
5,325
118
7,789
2,226
5,375
188
7,931
2,263
5,425
243
8,097
2,301
5,473
323
8,249
2,340
5,521
389
8,417
2,379
5,568
470
8,584
2,420
5,613
551
8,669
2,462
5,656
551
8,754
2,505
5,699
551
8,840
2,549
5,740
551
Large Commercial and
Industrial (2)
Schedule C-Large
Schedule ID
Schedule AIS
Schedule IS
Bethlehem Steel
62,097
19,098
31
1,609
24,355
17,004
56,998
19,921
40
1,495
22,700
12,842
57,322
20,136
40
1,506
22,771
12,869
57,505
20,311
40
1,513
22,776
12,865
57,794
20,484
40
1,524
22,868
12,878
57,929
20,648
40
1,529
22,855
12,858
58,144
20,805
40
1,533
22,911
12,854
58,357
20,955
40
1,541
22,968
12,854
58,555
21,088
40
1,548
23,025
12,854
58,750
21,212
40
1,559
23,081
12,858
58,914
21,318
40
1,564
23,138
12,854
59,073
21,412
40
1,572
23,195
12,854
Residential
w/o Space Heating
with Space Heating
Total Sales and Delivery
Service Volumes
108,596 106,659 107,510 108,220 109,022 109,655 110,314 110,980 111,580 112,083 112,565 113,007
Delivery Service
41,222
36,248
36,861
37,169
37,294
37,297
37,369
37,445
37,518
37,594
37,658
37,506
Total Sales
84,286 83,253 83,518
Notes:
(1) Reflects actual volumes through June 1995.
(2) Includes delivery service volumes.
83,917
84,606
85,215
85,799
86,389
86,916
87,347
87,761
88,355
Percent Change in Annual Gas Volumes 1995-2006
Low Case
Residential
w/o Space Heating
with Space Heating
1995
(1)
-2.0%
-15.7%
0.1%
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
6.8%
6.5%
6.9%
0.9%
1.3%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.7%
0.9%
0.8%
0.5%
0.8%
0.7%
0.5%
0.7%
0.6%
0.5%
0.7%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.5%
0.4%
6.7%
4.6%
7.3%
37.9%
1.8%
1.6%
1.0%
79.8%
2.0%
1.6%
0.9%
59.9%
1.8%
1.7%
0.9%
29.2%
2.1%
1.7%
0.9%
33.0%
1.9%
1.7%
0.9%
20.3%
2.0%
1.7%
0.8%
20.8%
2.0%
1.7%
0.8%
17.2%
1.0%
1.7%
0.8%
0.0%
1.0%
1.8%
0.7%
0.0%
1.0%
1.8%
0.7%
0.0%
1.3% -8.2%
0.8%
4.3%
-11.9% 28.0%
-8.1% -7.1%
6.9% -6.8%
-4.3% -24.5%
0.6%
1.1%
0.0%
0.8%
0.3%
0.2%
0.3%
0.9%
0.0%
0.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.5%
0.8%
0.0%
0.7%
0.4%
0.1%
0.2%
0.8%
0.0%
0.3%
-0.1%
-0.2%
0.4%
0.8%
0.0%
0.3%
0.2%
0.0%
0.4%
0.7%
0.0%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
0.3%
0.6%
0.0%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
0.3%
0.6%
0.0%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
0.3%
0.5%
0.0%
0.3%
0.2%
0.0%
0.3%
0.4%
0.0%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
-1.8%
0.8%
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
2.2% -12.1%
1.7%
0.8%
0.3%
0.0%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
-0.4%
Total Sales
-1.8% -1.2%
0.3%
Notes:
(1) Reflects actual volumes through June 1995.
(2) Includes delivery service volumes.
0.5%
0.8%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.7%
Small Commercial and
Industrial (2)
w/o Space Heating
With Space Heating
Natural Gas Vehicles
Large Commercial and
Industrial (2)
Schedule C-Large
Schedule ID
Schedule AIS
Schedule IS
Bethlehem Steel
-1.8%
-0.9%
-2.5%
68.5%
Total Sales and Delivery
Service Volumes
-0.1%
Delivery Service
Forecast Gas Customers 1995-2006
Low Case
1995
Residential
w/o Space Heating
with Space Heating
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
506,490 515,294 524,191 533,043 541,874 550,580 559,214 567,642 575,862 583,822 591,591 599,170
105,962 107,614 108,735 109,326 109,550 109,749 109,948 110,146 110,345 110,544 110,742 110,941
400,528 407,680 415,456 423,717 432,324 440,831 449,266 457,496 465,517 473,278 480,849 488,229
Small Commercial and
Industrial
w/o Space Heating
With Space Heating
33,202
10,422
22,780
33,336
10,339
22,997
33,471
10,256
23,215
33,605
10,174
23,431
33,736
10,092
23,644
33,864
10,012
23,852
33,990
9,932
24,058
34,109
9,852
24,257
34,223
9,773
24,450
34,331
9,695
24,636
34,434
9,618
24,816
34,531
9,541
24,990
Large Commercial and
Industrial
Schedule C-Large
Schedule ID
Schedule AIS
Schedule IS
Bethlehem Steel
6,280
6,055
0
99
125
1
6,400
6,173
0
100
126
1
6,522
6,293
0
101
127
1
6,644
6,413
0
102
128
1
6,765
6,532
0
103
129
1
6,885
6,650
0
104
130
1
7,004
6,767
0
105
131
1
7,121
6,882
0
106
132
1
7,235
6,994
0
107
133
1
7,346
7,103
0
108
134
1
7,454
7,209
0
109
135
1
7,560
7,313
0
110
136
1
Total Customers
Note:
Year-end customers
545,972 555,030 564,184 573,292 582,375 591,329 600,208 608,872 617,320 625,499 633,479 641,261
Annual Change in Customers 1995-2006
Low Case
1995
Residential
w/o Space Heating
with Space Heating
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
8,338
1,988
6,350
8,804
1,652
7,152
8,897
1,121
7,776
8,852
591
8,261
8,831
224
8,607
8,706
199
8,507
8,634
199
8,435
8,429
199
8,230
8,220
199
8,021
7,960
199
7,761
7,770
199
7,571
7,579
199
7,380
Small Commercial and
Industrial
w/o Space Heating
With Space Heating
124
-84
208
134
-83
217
135
-83
218
134
-82
216
131
-82
213
128
-80
208
126
-80
206
119
-80
199
114
-79
193
108
-78
186
103
-77
180
97
-77
174
Large Commercial and
Industrial
Schedule C-Large
Schedule ID
Schedule AIS
Schedule IS
Bethlehem Steel
113
112
0
-2
3
0
120
118
0
1
1
0
122
120
0
1
1
0
122
120
0
1
1
0
121
119
0
1
1
0
120
118
0
1
1
0
119
117
0
1
1
0
117
115
0
1
1
0
114
112
0
1
1
0
111
109
0
1
1
0
108
106
0
1
1
0
106
104
0
1
1
0
8,575
9,058
9,154
9,108
9,083
8,954
8,879
8,665
8,448
8,179
7,981
7,782
Total Customers
Confidential
B. FORECAST METHODOLOGY
1. Residential Forecast
Residential Forecast Range
(Schedules D and DH)
60 Millions of Dekatherms
55
50
45
40
Actual Volume s
through June 1995
35
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
High
Reference
Low
The High, Reference and Low Case residential gas sales projection vary primarily due to
differing population growth assumptions and differing assumptions about the gas heat
penetration ratio in new construction, and the number of existing homes converting to gas
service. As the Baltimore MSA's population grows, new households are formed and the
residential housing stock increases. A proportion (depending on the location of new housing
construction relative to the existing gas service territory) of all new home completions are
assumed to install gas heat (become new Schedule DH customers). Residential housing
completions were varied based on differing assumptions about population growth in the
Baltimore MSA. The Reference Case long term gas forecast is based on an average annual
(1995-2009) population growth rate of 0.6%. The High Case population forecast projects annual
average population growth of 1.0% for the same period, while the Low Case forecast projects an
average annual rate of population growth of 0.2%.
In the High Case, the new home gas heat penetration ratio is assumed to be 2% greater than that
in the Reference Case increasing to 80% of all new homes built in the Company's electric service
territory; while in the Low Case, the gas heat penetration ratio is 2% less than that in the
Reference Case also increasing to 80% of the new homes completed in the electric service
territory. The number of additional customers due to conversions -- both customers with existing
gas service converting form oil to gas heat and new gas services to existing houses -- were
assumed to be 120% and 80% of the Reference Case forecast in the High and Low Cases.
For Schedule DH, the variation in the number of residential gas heat completions among the
three cases results in differing use per customer projections for any given year. Use-percustomer for Schedule DH was modeled as a function of changes in the gas heat housing stock.
As new gas furnaces are installed either in new construction or as replacements for old furnaces,
the average efficiency of the furnace stock in the residential gas heating tariff class
44
Gas Sales, Peak, and
Planning Unit
Customer Forecast: 1995
Gas Planning Department
Confidential
increases. Therefore, because both residential new gas completions and conversions furnaces are
greater in the High Case than in the Reference Case, the use per customer for Schedule DH is
lower in the High Case than in the Reference Case. Similarly, the use per customer in the
Reference Case is less than that in the Low Case.
Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
45
Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department
Confidential
2. Firm Commercial and Industrial Forecast
Firm Comm./Indust'l Forecast Range
40
Millions of Dekatherms
35
30
25
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
High
Reference
Low
Commercial customer growth is largely tied to the growth in and location of new residential
construction. As residential communities expand, new shopping centers, restaurants, and
business facilities are developed to serve the new markets. In a given area, more rapid residential
construction results in a more rapid rate of commercial development in that area. To reflect this,
the ratio of total firm commercial customers to total residential customers in the Reference Case
was applied to the residential customer forecasts in both the High and Low Cases to develop the
firm commercial customer projections in those cases.
Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
46
Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department
Confidential
3. Interruptible Forecast
Interruptible Forecast Range
(Schedules AIS and IS)
30
Millions of Dekatherms
28
26
24
22
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
High
Reference
Low
Projected annual gas use by interruptible Schedule IS and AIS customer is derived by subtracting
an estimate of the gas use interrupted during the winter season due to capacity constraints from a
projected volume of "base" gas use. In this context, "base" gas use represents the projected
amount of natural gas that interruptible customers would use if the price of natural gas relative to
fuel oil was low enough to discourage substitution of oil for gas, and if there were no service
interruptions. Under the provisions of their tariff, Schedule IS and AIS customers must maintain
dual fuel capability enabling them to switch to their alternate fuel in the event of service
interruption. However, this dual fuel capability also enables them to switch to their alternate fuel
in order to reduce their energy costs.
Compared to the Reference Case, the High Case interruptible gas projection reflects a higher
base demand and a higher rate of growth of base demand. Similarly, the Low Case interruptible
gas projection reflects a lower base demand and a lower rate of growth of base demand. The
forecast ranges for the Schedule IS and AIS base gas loads were developed by first examining
their historical gas usage and judgmentally establishing a range around the currently expected
1995 Reference Case base gas usage. For Schedule IS, the range for 1995 base gas usage is one
million dekatherms around the Reference Case 1995 value. The corresponding range for
Schedule AIS is 50,000 dekatherms. For both interruptible classes, future High Case base gas
loads were obtained by increasing the High Case base gas value over time at a rate equal to 150%
of the rate assumed in the Reference Case. The Low Case projections apply annual growth rates
equal to 50% of the Reference Case growth rate to the Low Case 1995 base usage.
No price-driven fuel switching is assumed in this forecast. In BGE's Spring 1995 Long Term
Fuel Price Forecast the price of natural gas is low relative to the price of fuel oil. Therefore, it is
projected to be uneconomic for dual-fuel gas system customers to switch from low-cost natural
gas to higher cost fuel oil.
Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
47
Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department
Confidential
The number of service interruptions and corresponding volumes of Schedule IS and AIS gas
sales demand interrupted annually are estimated using the Gas Planning Department's Gas
Dispatch and Cost model. This model dispatches available gas supply sources to meet projected
firm gas load plus the projected demand of Schedule IS and AIS CCA customers. This latter
demand is interrupted as needed to maintain reliable service to firm customers. On average, for
Schedule IS, 43 days of interruption are projected in the High Case and 35 days of interruption in
the Low Case.
Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
48
Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department
Confidential
4. Bethlehem Steel Forecast
Bethlehem Steel Forecast Range
20
Millions of Dekatherms
18
16
14
12
Actual Volumes
through June 1995
10
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
High
Reference
Low
The gas load at the Sparrows Point Bethlehem Steel plant are based on differing assumptions
about the levels of steel production and electric generation on non-by-product fuel at Pennwood.
The projected level of steel production was assumed to be 3.9 million tons in the High Case and
3.2 million tons in the Low Case. Similarly, High and Low Case estimates of the projected level
of generation on non-by-product fuel were based on the projected plant electric load at in the
High and Low Case electric forecasts as well as estimates of the quantity of blast furnace gas
available for generation at Pennwood given the steel production projections. Using historical
usage factors relating steel production and megaWatt hours generated to natural gas
consumption, a base load forecast of natural gas consumption by Bethlehem Steel was
developed.
The natural gas demand at Bethlehem Steel is highly price sensitive particularly for the natural
gas used in at the L-Blast furnace and natural gas used in electric generation. The natural gas
price projected in BGE's Spring 1995 Long Term Fuel Price Forecast suggests that it will be
uneconomic for Bethlehem Steel to use fuel oil at the Pennwood generators in either the High or
the Low Case. However, recent plant modifications at the blast furnace may make fuel oil an
economic alternative to natural gas. The ability to flex the BGE system charge downwards is
assumed to prevent the loss of the blast furnace natural gas load in the High Case. However, in
the Low Case, a downward flex in the system charge is assumed to be insufficient to maintain
this load on natural gas.
Under the terms of the Company's contract with Bethlehem Steel, all gas service over a given
level (750 MDth per month from May 1992 through April 1995 and 375 MDth per month
thereafter) is provided on an interruptible basis. The projected annual level of service
interruptions for the High and Low Case Schedule IS demands were applied to the Bethlehem
Steel interruptible loads.
Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
49
Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department
Confidential
5. Design Day Forecast
Design Day Forecast
1,100
1,050
1,000
950
900
850
800
750
1996
1998
2000
High
2002
Reference
2004
2006
Low
The Design Day forecast for the High and Low Cases are developed using the same methodology
as in the Reference Case and the firm customer forecasts for the High and Low Cases. Then the
Load Management, and New Gas Technology Factors for the High and Low Cases were applied
to the Calculated High and Low Case Firm Sendout from the Design Day equation.
Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
50
Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department
Confidential
IV. GAS APPENDICES
Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
51
Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department
Confidential
This page intentionally left blank.
Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
52
Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department
Annual Gas Volumes
(Thousands of Dekatherms)
1985
Residential
With Space Heating
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
36,381 38,630 38,142 40,141 39,806 36,032 36,519 39,042 40,029 40,279
30,713 32,928 32,629 34,425 34,165 30,595 31,050 33,312 34,244 34,856
Small Commercial and
Industrial
With Space Heating
6,255
4,007
5,960
3,960
6,336
4,344
6,792
4,747
6,889
4,858
6,349
4,388
6,154
4,241
6,622
4,631
6,838
4,795
7,150
5,044
Large Commercial and
Industrial (1)
Schedule C-Large
Schedule LA
Schedule ID
Schedule AIS
Schedule IS
Bethlehem Steel
54,245
17,313
602
40
1,430
24,024
10,836
52,785
17,801
270
39
1,531
21,464
11,680
58,462
17,156
194
40
1,589
22,959
16,524
62,597
17,678
62
42
1,708
23,802
19,305
64,003
17,337
69
37
1,814
23,727
21,019
60,249
16,795
1
37
1,765
24,484
17,167
58,811
16,993
0
42
1,847
23,818
16,111
62,910
18,928
0
45
1,817
24,923
17,197
61,109
18,821
0
39
1,748
24,759
15,742
61,298
18,954
0
35
1,751
22,782
17,776
Total Sales and Delivery
Service Volumes
96,882 97,376 102,941 109,529 110,697 102,630 101,484 108,574 107,975 108,728
Delivery Service
30,592 31,552 40,118 40,827 45,230 40,239 40,673 40,741 38,818 40,327
Total Sales
66,287 65,824 62,823 62,700 65,458 62,392 60,811 67,833 69,157 68,400
Total Sendout
101,230 99,233 105,653 113,667 116,044 103,573 104,127 111,932 110,914 111,300
Notes:
(1) Includes Delivery Service Volumes
Total Customers
1985
Residential
With Space Heating
Small Commercial and
Industrial
With Space Heating
Large Commercial and
Industrial
Schedule C-Large
Schedule LA
Schedule ID
Schedule AIS
Schedule IS
Bethlehem Steel
Total Customers
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
481,188 482,394 482,023 482,011 482,538 482,680 482,085 486,863 491,165 498,152
347,196 351,124 352,640 354,688 357,418 359,448 360,793 366,822 373,676 394,178
29,449 30,820 31,108 31,582 31,881 31,981 32,336 32,596 32,877 33,078
17,742 19,279 19,731 20,331 20,801 21,030 21,494 21,863 22,216 22,572
5,728
5,519
6
0
106
96
1
4,873
4,658
5
0
110
99
1
5,001
4,791
4
0
106
99
1
5,160
4,946
3
0
105
105
1
5,307
5,086
2
0
110
108
1
5,373
5,151
0
0
109
112
1
5,610
5,381
0
0
110
118
1
5,816
5,590
0
0
105
120
1
5,994
5,768
0
0
102
123
1
6,167
5,943
0
0
101
122
1
516,365 518,087 518,132 518,753 519,726 515,307 520,031 525,275 530,036 537,397
Winter Gas Volumes(1)
(Thousands of Dekatherms)
85-86
Residential
With Space Heating
Small Commercial and
Industrial
With Space Heating
86-87
87-88
88-89
89-90
90-91
91-92
92-93
93-94
94-95
22,556 25,657 26,599 26,065 25,605 22,815 26,442 27,774 29,724 25,446
22,256 22,416 23,295 22,818 22,358 19,833 22,907 24,121 25,886 22,860
3,749
2,714
4,128
3,087
4,411
3,349
4,413
3,360
4,429
3,386
3,811
2,841
4,448
3,353
4,821
3,604
5,186
3,999
4,422
3,340
Large Commercial and
Industrial (2)
Schedule C-Large
Schedule LA
Schedule ID
Schedule AIS
Schedule IS
Bethlehem Steel
28,035 27,921 29,264 30,670 29,322 29,712 31,107 31,355 30,007 30,033
11,322 10,727 11,002 10,663 10,573 10,155 11,830 12,066 13,107 11,252
269
93
69
68
17
0
0
0
0
0
28
30
30
29
28
28
31
30
30
19
841
788
864
860
846
883
975
933
960
905
10,804
9,880 10,426 10,720 10,964 11,464 11,464 12,400
9,706 11,515
4,759
6,394
6,863
8,317
6,785
7,173
6,806
5,926
6,204
6,342
Total Sales and Delivery
Service Volumes
57,337 57,697 60,263 61,135 59,347 56,328 61,997 63,851 64,917 59,901
Delivery Service
13,486 16,581 14,892 18,605 15,513 17,908 20,122 16,713 13,964 16,588
Total Sales
43,851 41,116 45,371 42,530 43,834 38,420 41,875 47,138 50,953 43,313
Notes:
(1) Winter includes the months of November through March.
(2) Includes Delivery Service Volumes
Confidential
Appendix C: Historical Winter Heating Degree Hours, 1984-1995
Actual Heating Degree Hours
(Winter)
Calendar Month
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
84-85
625
659
1,106
755
591
85-86
405
962
992
891
626
86-87
602
826
1,001
585
584
87-88 88-89 89-90
528
509
586
774
879
1,217
1,116 845
730
839
909
625
610
579
581
90-91 91-92 92-93 93-94 94-95 Normal
476
583
544
566
419
549
709
815
804
884
700
873
906
935
831 1,180 814
1,026
670
890
939
876
885
846
582
750
794
697
542
660
Billing Month Actuals
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
84-85
304
701
824
1,069
654
85-86
290
698
1,016
960
820
86-87
406
749
927
982
760
87-88 88-89 89-90
458
467
377
701
747
952
1,023
915 1,037
933
794
634
744
810
636
90-91
371
625
850
767
644
Billing Month Normals
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
84-85
408
716
983
993
779
85-86
418
750
984
958
771
86-87
408
765
1,000
962
764
87-88 88-89 89-90
418
414
419
774
761
768
996
996
992
958
945
945
762
758
758
90-91
428
759
996
951
758
Note: All normal HDH figures are based on weather data for the 30-year period 1961-1990.
Calendar-month actual and normal HDH measures correspond to the time period delineated by
the calendar month. Billing-month actuals and normals are determined by the meter-reading
schedule which varies from year to year. Prior to 1991, all sales figures are reported on a billingmonth basis and include gas consumption from two (or more) adjacent calendar months. For
1991 and all forecast years, sales are reported on a calendar month basis.
Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
57
Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department
Confidential
Appendix D: Distributed Normal Temperatures
Day
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
October
0.6
0.0
1.2
1.9
2.5
3.8
5.5
7.9
3.1
9.1
8.5
6.2
4.3
4.8
7.2
6.8
10.1
9.6
13.5
11.9
12.7
11.2
10.7
16.0
15.1
16.9
18.0
14.3
21.5
24.8
19.4
November
6.5
1.7
4.4
8.4
9.7
14.0
13.2
12.2
10.6
11.4
14.8
15.5
18.6
16.1
20.5
16.8
19.7
17.6
23.1
24.3
27.1
31.2
28.4
25.2
26.1
23.7
21.2
22.3
29.6
35.0
December
23.8
18.6
15.4
7.2
17.2
12.4
22.9
19.9
21.1
25.3
26.1
24.6
22.1
26.7
27.5
28.2
29.6
33.2
39.5
32.2
44.2
41.6
30.1
30.8
31.5
35.0
49.2
29.0
34.1
36.5
37.8
January
12.1
24.5
28.2
29.6
34.0
28.9
23.4
37.8
41.8
34.9
30.4
31.8
40.6
35.9
38.7
44.8
39.6
31.2
32.6
33.3
36.8
27.4
22.2
25.6
18.0
20.5
26.6
49.7
54.9
47.1
42.9
February
32.5
30.2
34.3
39.6
38.1
36.7
42.6
41.3
49.5
44.6
33.4
35.0
35.8
31.5
27.9
26.8
30.7
29.0
17.2
24.8
23.8
21.3
13.0
8.2
22.8
29.7
25.9
19.6
March
39.7
32.3
34.4
30.1
23.8
27.9
29.0
31.3
27.3
25.8
26.6
24.4
19.0
22.4
17.3
20.5
23.1
25.0
18.2
21.0
19.8
21.6
16.5
15.2
14.0
11.9
13.0
10.7
2.6
7.0
9.0
April
21.1
16.9
13.5
17.9
14.8
27.4
23.5
19.9
22.4
18.9
16.4
15.6
14.2
12.6
13.0
12.0
11.4
2.0
9.3
10.1
7.1
6.4
5.8
4.3
10.8
8.0
8.6
5.1
3.2
0.7
The heating degree hours in the table above are ordered distributed normal HDH for the winter
months. Distributed normal heating degree hours are based on thirty years of actual daily
weather data for each month distributed from coldest to warmest. A set of distributed normals
for a month consists of the average of the thirty coldest days for the month, the average of the
second thirty coldest days, and so on.
Gas Sales, Peak, and
Customer Forecast: 1995
58
Planning Unit
Gas Planning Department