Assessment of externalities from major accidents
in non-nuclear fuel chains
(Work Package 5)
S. Hirschberg & P. Burgherr
Paul Scherrer Institute, Switzerland
EESD Energy Project NewExt: first progress meeting
Bath (UK), 13 and 14 September 2001
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK)
Content
• Summary of work progress
- Current status of PSI database ENSAD
- Extension needs
• Issues
- Importance of smaller accidents
- Probabilistic analysis for hydropower
- Economic valuation
• Tasks for next 6 months (+)
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK)
Risk assessment – scope and goals
• Assessment of major accidents in non-nuclear fuel chains with
focus on the severe ones. The basis for this work is PSI’s database
ENSAD.
• In addition, an extension of the database including identification
and acquisition of new sources will be performed.
• Specific survey of historical data considering smaller accidents.
• Development of a concept for experience- and prediction-based
dam risk assessment.
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK)
Severe Accident Definition
(as used in ENSAD)
One or several of the following consequences:
• At least 5 fatalities
• At least 10 injured
• At least 200 evacuees
• Extensive ban on consumption of food
• Release of hydrocarbons exceeding 10000 tonnes
• Enforced clean-up of land and water over an area of at least 25 km2
• Economic loss of at least 5 million USD
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK)
Some methodological issues
•
Definition of a severe accident that could be consistently applied to various
energy chains.
•
Distinction between the estimates based on actual experience and on
predictions utilizing logical system models.
•
Treatment of source data and the rational for screening.
•
Accounting for contributions from all stages of fuel cycles.
•
Role of risk perception/risk aversion.
•
Presentation of results.
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK)
Major accident Databases Used by ENSAD
Code
Name
Country of
Origin
Time
Geographical
Area
Type of Accidents
Covered
OFDA
USA
1900-1995
Worldwide
Man-made and
Natural Catastrophes
MHIDAS
UK
1900-1995
Worldwide
Industry
FACTS
Netherlands
1920-1995
Worldwide
Industry
RfF
USA
1945-1991
Worldwide
Man-made and
Natural Catastrophes
ICOLD
France
1850-1992
Worldwide
Dam Accidents
SIGMA
Switzerland
1969-1995
Worldwide
Man-made and
Natural Catastrophes
WOAD
Norway
1970-1995
Worldwide
Offshore
HSUB
Germany
1900-1983
Worldwide
Industry
SONATA
Italy
--
Worldwide
Industry
MARS
European
Community
1980-1991
Europe
Industry
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK)
The most important information sources for
PSI's Energy-related Severe Accidents Database (ENSAD)
•
•
•
Major commercial and non-commercial accident databases
•
•
National and international newspapers
•
•
•
•
•
Plant operators
Journals, periodicals and books on specific energy systems
Technical reports issued by manufacturing and insurance companies, or by
research institutes
Other publications, e.g. Conference Proceedings, Encyclopaedias, Annual
Reports etc.
Consular authorities
International organisations (UN, OECD, European Community, etc.)
Organisations providing emergency services (Red Cross, UN, etc.)
Governmental organisations having an internal reporting system, such as
police, fire brigades, labour and environmental inspectorates
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK)
Implementation
•
•
•
•
Acquisition of relevant databases.
•
Identification of energy-related accidents and among them of accidents
considered as severe.
•
Allocation of energy-related accidents to specific fuel cycles and subsequently
to specific stages within each fuel cycle.
•
•
•
•
Searches utilising supplementary sources.
Implementation of the acquired databases on a personal computer.
Merging of the contents of the various databases within Microsoft’s Access.
Elimination of overlapping events and harmonisation of non-consistent
information.
Application of PSA.
Implementation of the additional evidence into the database.
Evaluation.
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK)
PSI's Energy-related Severe Accidents Database (ENSAD) and its Merits
• 13914 accidents, of which
10064 (72.3%) man-made
3850 (27.7%) as natural
• 4290 energy-related accidents, corresponding to:
30.8% of all accidents
42.6% of man-made accidents
• Among the energy-related accidents 1943 (45.3%) are severe, of which 846 have 5 or more fatalities
• In the period 1975-1996 typically about 30 energy-related accidents with at least five fatalities
occurred each year; among them 1-5 had consequences exceeding 100 fatalities.
• Nearly 93% of the energy-related accidents occurred in the time period 1945-1996
• 62% of all energy-related severe accidents with at least 5 fatalities occurred in the western world
• Much improved coverage and balance between reporting levels for individual countries
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK)
Energy-related Severe Accidents (1945-1996)
40
35
more than 100
51-100 Fatalities
Number of Accidents
30
21-50 Fatalities
25
5-20 Fatalities
20
15
10
5
Year
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
0
Source: Hirschberg et al., 1998
NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK)
ENSAD
Number of Accidents by Type and Damage Category
14000
12000
Number of
Accidents
10000
8000
6000
All Accidents
Accident Type
Natural
Man-made
Man-made Energy-related
Man-made Non-energy-related
4000
2000
0
A B
C
D
E
F
G
H
Damage Category
A: No threshold
B: C or D or E or F or G or H
C:at least 5 fatalities, D: at least 10 injuries, E: at least 200 evacuees
F: at least 10,000 t of pollutives releases of hydrocarbons and chemicals
G: at least 25 km2 area of enforced clean up of land+water
H: at least 5 Million US$ of economic loss
Source: Hirschberg et al., 1998
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK)
Number of fatalities in severe accidents
by oil chain step (1969-1996)
Refinery
2.1%
Transport to
Refinery
28.9%
Regional
Distribution
50.7%
Extraction
12.5%
Exploration
5.5%
Heating
0.4%
Source: Hirschberg et al., 1998
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK)
Number of Affected Persons per GW e*a
Severe Accidents Indicators for OECD and Non-OECD Countries
1000
Immediate Fatalities
Injured
Evacuees
100
10
1
0.1
0.01
0.001
OECD
NonOECD
Coal
OECD
NonOECD
Oil
OECD
NonOECD
Nat. Gas
OECD
NonOECD
LPG
OECD
NonOECD
Hydro
OECD
NonOECD
Nuclear
Source: Hirschberg et al., 1998
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK)
Energy-related Severe Accidents (1969-1996)
Economic Losses
Monetary Damage per produced Energy
(Million 1996 US$/GWe*a)
1.E+2
Max. Damage/GWe*a (1969-1996)
Min. Damage/GWe*a (1969-1996)
1.E+1
1.E+0
1.E-1
1.E-2
1.E-3
World-wide
Coal
Oil
Nat. Gas
LPG
Hydro
OECD
World-wide
OECD
Nuclear
Source: Hirschberg et al., 1998
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK)
Frequency of Events causing
X or more Fatalities per GWe*a
Severe Accidents in the Electricity Sector World-wide 1969-96 (ENSAD)
1.E-2
1.E-3
Nuclear (Chernobyl,
immediate fatalities)
1.E-4
Nuclear
(Chernobyl, range of
estimated latent
fatalities)
1.E-5
Coal
1.E-6
Oil
1.E-7
Nuclear
(Mühleberg,
PSA-based
latent fatalities)
Natural Gas
1.E-8
Hydro
1.E-9
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
Number of Fatalities, X
Source: Hirschberg et al., 1998
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK)
Extension needs
OSH-ROM (Health & Safety Publishing)
2000 CHF per year
ICOLD world register of dams
Free year 2000 update
Bibliography of the history of dam failures
369 EUR
PC Facts (1996-2000)
n.a.
WOAD (Worldwide Offshore Accident Database)
305 USD
Lloyd‘s casualty archive(online database since Jan 1991) 1135 USD
Oil spills:
CONCAWE (oil companies' European organisation for
environment, health and safety)
ITOPF (Int. Tanker Owners Pollution Federation)
International oil spill statistics (Cutter Information Corp.)
IEA world energy statistics update 2000
(data normalization)
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
Free
Free
205 USD
1200 USD
NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK)
Severe vs smaller accidents
• A severe accident should have one or several of the following consequences:
- At least 5 fatalities
- At least 10 injured
- At least 200 evacuees
- Extensive ban on consumption of food
- Release of hydrocarbons exceeding 10000 tonnes
- Enforced clean-up of land and water over an area of at least 25 km2
- Economic loss of at least 5 million USD
 A smaller accident does not match any of the above criteria
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK)
Smaller vs severe accidents in ENSAD (1969-1996)
10000
Smaller Accidents
Severe Accidents
1122
Number of accidents
1000
334
187
77
100
70
86
47
15
9
10
3
1
Coal
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
Oil
LPG
Natural Gas
Hydro
NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK)
Smaller vs severe accidents in ENSAD (1969-1996)
100000
Smaller Accidents
15623
Severe Accidents
8272
10000
5140
Number of fatalities
3175
1482
1000
295
100
50
31
26
14
10
2
1
Coal
Oil
LPG
Natural Gas
Hydro
Nuclear
Source: Hirschberg et al., 1998
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK)
Smaller accidents 1996-2000
35
32
Number of accidents or fatalities
30
25
21
20
15
10
8
8
5
5
2
0
Coal
Oil
Accidents
Natural Gas
Fatalities
• Initial survey of OSH-ROM (MHIDAS, CISDOC, HSELINE etc) yielded a total of 28
fatalities and 48 fatalities.
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK)
Smaller accidents in China‘s coal chain 1994-1999
100
80
2772
4190
Fatalities (%)
3985
60
4662
5551
4360
4998
40
3254
20
2197
1510
1613
1346
1887
1401
0
1994
1995
1996
1997
Severe Accidents
1998
1999
Mean
Smaller Accidents
Source: CETP-Project
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK)
Smaller accidents in coal mining in the USA (1995-2000)
50
Accidents
Fatalities
Number of accidents or fatalities
40
30
20
10
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Analysis based on MSHA statistics
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK)
Treatment of smaller accidents
• Use of extended ENSAD database as a starting point
• Use of additional sources:
- Occupational Health & Safety statistics
- NEWCRONOS database by EUROSTAT
- International Labour Organization statistics
- etc
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK)
Economic valuation
• To what extent are non-nuclear accidents already internalized?
- Differences between specific energy chains
- Occupational vs public accidents
- Small vs large accidents
• Basis for monetisation
- Value of statistical life
- Damages other than loss of life
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK)
Tasks for next 6 months (+)
1. Implementation of database extension up to year 2000
2. First evaluations based on extended database
3. Data acquisition for smaller accidents
4. Initialization of hydropower analysis
5. Partner contributions to monetisation
Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI
NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK)