1
SeforALL Knowledge Hub (I)
SEforALL KNOWLEDGE HUB
POLICIES
OUTCOMES
GTF
MTF
RISE
SEAR
SeforALL Knowledge Hub (II)
GTF
SEAR 2017 2017
RISE 2017
MTF 2015
GTF 2015
describes how to close
the energy access gap
by integrating lessons
learned with best
practice delivery models
RISE 2014
(pilot)
GTF 2013
2018
2019
2020
SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FOR ALL
GLOBAL TRACKING
FRAMEWORK
Progress Toward
Sustainable Energy
Vienna, May 9
Elisa Portale
3
Extensive partnership co-led by WB and IEA, recent
addition of UN Regional Commissions
4
5
Where do we stand on Sustainable Energy for All objectives?
Progress fell short of what is needed to meet 2030 targets
0
0
0
6
If the current pace of progress continues, electrification is
projected to reach just 91% by 2030
7
The 20 high-impact countries account for 80% of global
electricity access deficit in 2014
• About 80% of the
people without
electricity live in
just 20 countries
• Sudan, Kenya and
Rwanda made >2%
progress 2012-2014
• Angola, DRC, Niger
saw access rates fall
from 2012-2014
8
All regions except Africa showed clear convergence toward
universal access
100
Share of population with access to electricity (%)
90
80
99.5
98.8
91.7
85.5
100.0
96.0
100.0
96.6
88.3
89.1
100.0
97.0
90.4
88.0
89.9
90.3
45.1
46.9
81.7
76.2
78.7
70
70.2
• Africa’s
electrification
rate climbing
slowly towards
50%
60
50
40
42.6
38.1
38.1
30
20
10
• All other
regions had
achieved
electrification
above 90% by
2014
0
Latin America and Caribbean
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
Europe, North America, and Central Asia
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
Asia–Pacific
1999
1998
1997
1996
Arab region
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
Africa
• Gap between
Africa and
other regions
widened since
1990
9
Sharp increase in electrification across regions between $500$1000 GDP per capita, except Africa
2012
1995
1991
2000
2005
1999
1996
2011
2004
1994
1992
1990
2001
2014
2007
1997
1993
1998
2003
2002
2006
2010
2009
2008
2013
2030 Goal
South Africa
Nigeria
Botswana
Namibia
Congo, Rep. of.
Zimbabwe
Ethiopia
Tanzania
Dem. Rep. of Congo
$500-1000
GDP per
capita
Angola
• Electrification
rates rise over
time very steeply
at the income
bracket of $500–
1,000 per capita
GDP
• African middle
income countries
stand out as
under-performing
on access relative
to their income
levels
10
Global electrification deficit fell only slightly to 1.06 billion
people in 2014
• Some 85% of global
electrification deficit is
to be found in rural
areas of Asia and SubSaharan Africa
• But since most future
population growth will
be urban, electrification
challenge remains both
urban and rural
• Current urban access
rate at 96% well above
rural access rate of 73%
11
If the current pace of progress continues, access to clean
cooking is projected to reach a mere 72% by 2030
12
The 20 clean cooking access high-impact countries account
for 85% of global access deficit in 2014
• Among the 20 high-impact
countries, only four—
China, Indonesia, Viet Nam,
and Pakistan increased
access to clean cooking
faster than growth in
population
• For the other 16, the
progress made was not
enough to catch up with
demographic growth in
2012–14.
• Afghanistan, Bangladesh,
and Nigeria: their access
rates fall in 2012–14.
13
Africa and Asia–Pacific lagged behind on access to clean
cooking
Share of population with access to clean cooking (%)
100
95.3
90
97.5
97.8
98.0
86.7
87.5
88.0
84.3
85.4
86.5
47.9
49.6
51.2
79.2
80
70
78.1
60
50
39.8
40
30
26.0
25.8
25.7
24.6
20
10
• Both Africa and
Asia Pacific lag
substantially
behind other
regions on access
to clean cooking
• Latin America and
the Arab Region
have followed a
very similar
trajectory
0
2014
2013
2012
Europe, North America, and Central Asia
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
Asia–Pacific
2005
2004
Arab region
2003
2002
2001
2000
Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
• Only one region
has already
achieved universal
access to clean
cooking
14
Most countries lag far behind on access to clean cooking as
compared to electricity access at same income level
2009
2003
2004
2008
2007
2002
2001
2005
2000
2010
2012
2014
2006
2011
2013
Egypt
Armenia Tunisia
Algeria
Jordan
2030 Goal
• Universal access
to clean cooking
typically takes
much longer
than electricity,
all the way to
income levels of
$12,000 per
capita
• A handful of
Arab countries
have managed
to reach
universal access
at lower income
levels
15
The clean cooking access deficit rose slightly to 3.04 billion
people, with a strong geographic concentration in Asia
• Urban–rural gap for clean
cooking at close to 60
percentage points
• Even in urban areas, only
78% of the population
had access in 2014
• This raises a serious
concern, given the poor
air quality and fire
hazards associated with
using traditional biomass
cook stoves in crowded
urban settings.
16
Energy efficiency closest of all pillars to pace required to
achieve 2030 objective
17
Energy savings achieved from 2012–14, are equivalent to
energy consumption of both Brazil and Pakistan in 2014
• About 75% of the
world’s energy
supply is
concentrated in
20 high impact
countries
• 7 out of these 20
countries reduced
energy intensity
at a rate faster
than the global
target of -2.6% pa.
• 4 out of these 20
countries saw
their energy
intensity increase
18
Most regions converged toward an energy intensity of 5-6
MJ/2011 PPP $
10
Energy intensity (MJ/2011 PPP $)
9
9.1
8.0
7.6
8
7
7.5
6
5
4.5
4
4.4
7.3
6.6
6.7
6.2
5.6
4.9
4.6
4.3
6.4
6.1
5.3
4.0
3
6.0
4.9
6.0
5.1
4.9
4.0
4.0
2
1
0
Latin America and Caribbean
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
Europe, North America, and Central Asia
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
Asia–Pacific
1999
1998
1997
1996
Arab region
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
Africa
• Africa and
Asia are the
world’s most
energy
intensive
regions
• Latin
America and
Arab region
are least
energy
intensive but
have made
little
progress
over time
19
Industry sector a large contributor to global decline in
energy intensity
• Policies for industry, transport,
and buildings have been key
drivers of reductions in energy
intensity
• Progress in transport is
encouraging as fuel efficiency
standards helps to drive down
energy intensity for passenger
transportation
• An important exception,
however, is the residential sector
that is getting more energy
intensive over time.
20
If the current pace of progress continues, the share of
renewable energy consumption will reach only 21% by 2030
21
Only a handful of countries were able to increase their
renewable energy shares by more than 1% annually
• In 2012-2014, only 13 of 20
high impact countries
succeeded in increasing their
modern renewable energy
share to some degree
• Of these 20, only Italy and the
United Kingdom increased
their renewable energy share
significantly by more than 1
percentage point in that
period.
• A number of large energy
consumers saw their
renewable energy shares fall
22
Most of the growth in renewable energy consumption comes
disproportionately from electricity and transport
• Electricity and transport represented
relatively small shares of total renewable
energy consumption in 2012, but the
penetration of renewable energy in these
applications has been growing relatively
rapidly
• Heat sector accounted for bulk of renewable
energy consumption, in 2012, but contributed
only 42% of progress in 2012–14 reflecting
less policy focus and greater technological
challenges
23
Modern renewables outweigh traditional uses of biomass but
those remain significant
• Modern renewables outweigh
traditional uses of biomass but those
remain significant
• Among the different renewable
energy technologies, solar
photovoltaics (PV) and wind for
electricity generation experienced by
far the most rapid growth rates, but
starting from a very small base
• The largest absolute increase in
modern renewable energy sources
came from hydropower.
24
Share of modern renewable energy consumption in TFEC (%)
The share of modern renewable energy consumption
increased in three regions
30
25
24.5
23.7
23.0
23.1
22.9
20
15
9.6
10
8.5
7.0
5
4.9
5.3
5.8
2.7
2.4
2.0
0
6.2
1.8
6.8
1.8
Latin America and Caribbean
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
Europe, North America, and Central Asia
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
Asia–Pacific
2000
1999
1998
1997
Arab region
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
Africa
8.1
8.4
7.1
6.9
5.6
11.1
10.5
• Latin America has
by far the largest
share of modern
renewable energy
due to hydro and
biomass resources
• Arab region stands
out as having by far
the lowest
renewable energy
share
• Other regions have
made notable
efforts to increase
modern
renewables
25
For more details and interactive data, visit gtf.esmap.org