International ODA: Evolution and Direction Lee, Kye Woo Hankook University of Foreign Studies Sept. 30, 2010 Table of Contents • • • • Why Discussion of ODA? Concepts of ODA Origin and Evolution of DAC-ODA Direction of Korean ODA I. Why A Discussion of ODA? • World Expectations and Pressures on Korea as an effective donor rise: - DAC New member (2010); G-20 Summit in Seoul (2010); HLF-4 on Aid Effectiveness in Seoul (2011) • DAC New member - DAC norms and recommendations - DAC periodic peer reviews • ODA as a Source for Growth (S, I) - Mutual exchange and benefits (N, I, T, NR…) - Enhance Soft Power and Brand Name (knowledge sharing, cultural exchange). • Humanitarian and National Brand Motives - A Former aid recipient turned into a donor; k-s responsibility - ODA enhances national brand II. Concepts of ODA Financial Flows to Developing Countries Official Flows Private Flows -Official Development Assistance (ODA) -Other Official Flows -Capital Market Flows - Private Grants Official Development Assistance Donor: Gov’t + Gov’t agencies (incl. local gov’t, excl. private sector) Recipient (partner): OECD/DAC designated developing countries (152 in 2009-10)+IGOs (201) +NGOs , etc.(67) Aim: Promote Economic development and welfare (excl. military, religious, cultural aid) Condition: grant elements >25%; money or in kind Classification of Aid Grant Repay Loan/Credit Bilateral Agent Multilateral Type (Means) Fund Redemption required Negotiations done directly b/t recipient and donor Aid via international /regional organizations(IBRD, IDA, ADB, UNDP, EU, etc.) Providing capitals (Grant, loan, credit) Technology Providing technologies(Transfer of intellectual assets such as technologies or know-hows) Project Providing funds and technologies to specific investment /TA projects(Increment of tangible assets) Modality Program Procure ment Redemption not required Tied Untied Financial support for sector-wide investment or policy-based program which is larger than a project Aid fund can be used to purchase goods and services produced by donor nationals Aid fund can be used to purchase goods and II. Origin and Evolution of ODA Origin: • Multilateral aid- IBRD (1945) • Bilateral Aid-Marshall Plan (1948-51) - recovery of economy w/ democratic system ($16.4b)in 17 European countries (policy+mart+ humanitarian aid) - Joint committee to plan the use of aidOEEC (1948) • OECD(1960):OEEC+ U.S., Canada, Finland, Austr. N.Z, - Japan (21 states + EEC) economic cooperation among advanced economies assist developing countries(mart + humanitarian aid) DAC (Development assistance committee): aim Korea joined OECD (1996) Korea joined DAC (2010) (23 states + EU) Evolution of ODA • 1945-1950s: Cold war + aid to LDCs develop (growth) - IO: Recovery of Europe + Japan (macro growth through investment in Infrastructure: Harrod-Domar growth theory) - US: Ideological fight with Soviet block - EU: Maintain influence to their former colonies - USSR: solidarity w/ communist block • 1960s : North-South conflict +BODA org. for LDCs growth – Infrastructure development on the basis of Europe success – OECD trade expansion – North-South gap in economic development (primary vs. mfg deterioration of TOT in South) – USAID, CIDA, BMZ(GTZ+KfW), OECF, ODM Evolution of ODA (2) • 1970s: Deepening N vs.S gap + Welfare (basic needs) Aid - micro welfare improvement thru investment in rural development + human capital poverty alleviation • Deepening North- South gap – Oil crisis (1973) and deteriorating TOT in South – South demand new economic order in UN (1974) – Investment in infrastructure results in weak Economic growth – Infra- investment needs Human capital, Technology, Institutions for construction and maintenance – Trickle down theory didn’t work poverty, inequity – New economic growth theory: Human capital theory (Schultz, Becker: 1960s) – Pearson Report: Aid should be 0.7% of donors’ GDP – McNamara’s speech in Kenya (1972) Evolution of ODA (3) • 1980s: Debt Crisis and Structural Adjustment Aid: induce changes in government economic policy reform (public finances, trade, private finances, public enterprises) - Debt crisis in LA, Asia, and Africa - MODA increased for Structural adjustment - BODA joined MODA for SAL - South and UN criticized Multilateral banks for their assistance without human face: the poorer group took the brunt of the adjustment costs(e.g. reduction of subsidies) Evolution of ODA (4) • 1990s: Deepening poverty gap + Sharp BODA Reduction; Governance changes, institutional changes - Sharp BODA reduction (e.g. U.S. ODA/GNI rate: 1970-80: 0.35%- mid-1990: 0.23% ) • End of Cold War(collapse of E. Germany, USSR in 1989, 1991) • OECDs in recession; sought recovery thru trade • Globalization, economic liberalization (U-round 1994), (trade, not aid); economics of trade and growth; neoclassical economics • private K moved to South (FDI); demand for ODA declined – MODA increased for debt reductions and ↓in BODA – Aid for transitional economies (to market economies) (governance, privatization, social security system reform) – Financial crisis and aid for Asia, Russia, LA – Debt forgiveness for HIPC – Aid for Poverty Reduction: • PRSP (1999): Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper by recipients Evolution of ODA (5) 2000s: Aid for Poverty Reduction - Attain Millennium Development Goals (2000 at UN Summit) by 2015 - Inter-state, intra-state poverty gap rose • • • • • 1970s oil crisis 1980s debt crisis 1990s ODA reduction, financial crisis, globalization Social Development Summit in Sweden (1995) DAC declared IMG (1996): Halve poverty by 2015 Evolution of ODA (6) • 2000s: Aid for Poverty Reduction (1) -Millennium Development Goals Goal Goal Goal Goal Goal Goal 1: Eradicate Extreme Poverty (halve the poorer -2015) 2: Achieve Primary Education (basic ed. For all-2015) 3: Promote Gender Equality and Empower Women(2015) 4: Reduce Child Mortality (by 2/3 by 2015) 5: Improve Maternal Health (by ¾ by 2015) 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, Malaria & Other Diseases (current level or reduce by 2015) Goal 7: Ensure Environmental Sustainability Goal 8: Develop a Global Partnership for Development Evolution of ODA (7) • 2000s: Aid for Poverty Reduction (2) -Broadening the concept of ODA to include human security, conflict preventions, reconstruction after civil conflicts - Expansion of ODA • Monterrey Consensus on Financing for Development (2002): 0.7% of GNI by 2015 (0.51% by 2009) • 2006 target of 0.33% was attained in 2005 • But Debt forgiveness was 20% of ODA (2005); programmable aid was reduced (2006) Net ODA: Volume and GNI Share Evolution of ODA (8) • 2000s: Aid for Poverty Reduction(3) - Emphasis on Aid Effectiveness • Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness (2005): 5 principles 12 Monitoring Indicators of Paris Declaration 1. Ownership 1. Operational Development Strategy 2a. Reliable System for Public Finances 2b. Reliable procurement system 3. Aid flows are aligned on National Priorities 4. Strengthen capacities by coordinated support 2. Alignment 5a. Use of Country Public Financial Management System 5b. Use of Country Procurement System 6.Avoiding Parallel Implementation Structures 7. Aid is more Predictable 8. Aid is Untied 9. Use of common Arrangements or Procedures 3. Harmony 10a. Encourage Shared Field Missions 10b. Encourage Joint Country Analytic work 4. Results-Oriented Management 11.Transparent +monitorable Performance Assessment framework 5. Mutual Accountability 12. All partner countries have mutual Assessment system in place Evolution of ODA (9) • 2000s: Aid for Poverty Reduction(4) - Reinforce Untied Aid • Tied aid means that aid recipients can use the aid fund only for goods/works/services produced by the nationals of the donor • DAC Recommendations on Totally Untied Aid for Least Developing Countries (2001, 2006) (except TA, food aid, debt reductions) • Tied aid is inefficient (costs higher) by 15-40% (DAC Studies) and hurts ownership of aid recipients • Progress to date: to LDCs -- 82% (2006) : to all DCs-- 79% (2007) □ Award of Contracts in ODA Procurement Share of Developing Partners declining Donors want to secure their share in ODA Procurement 100% 32.3 26.4 15.6 17.7 50% 11.4 36.3 46.7 0% 60.7 10.0 2003 2004 2005 LDCs DCs Non-DAC Donors OECD/WB Mid-Term Review (2006) of Paris Declaration -Delays in untying aid -Weak in using partners’ Financial management + Procurement systems -Negligible in donor’s use of local offices Evolution of ODA (10) • 2000s: Aid for Poverty Reduction(5) - Relative Increases in Bilateral Grants (net) (unit: %) Net Official Development Assistance 1. Bilateral grants and grant-like flows 2. Bilateral loans 3. Contributions to multilateral institutions Source:DAC 1995-96 average 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 63 69 75 72 80 76 73 72 6 1 -2 -4 -3 -3 -3 -1 31 30 27 32 23 27 30 29 Evolution of ODA (10) • 2000s: Aid for Poverty Reduction(5) - Increases in Private Flows • Rates of increases in Grants by NGOs were greater than ODA’s (USD million) 1995-96 average (A).ODA (B). Net grants by NGOs (B) as % of (A ) (NGO's Share) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 57,277 58,297 69,065 79,432 107,099 104,368 103,485 121,483 5,871 8,768 10,239 11,320 14,712 14,648 17,866 23,655 10% 15% 15% 14% 14% 14% 17% 19% Evolution of ODA (11) • 2000s: Aid for Poverty Reduction(6) - Increases in Private Flows • Rates of Increases in Workers’ Remittances to developing states were greater than ODA’s (USD million; %) States 2001 2002 2003 2004 upper middle income 22 23 30 lower middle income 48 61 75 86 95 101 110% low income 26 32 40 4 1 46 47 81% Total 96 117 145 188 199 107% 37 163 2005 2006 47 52 ↑↓2001~6 (%) 128% Evolution of ODA (12) • 2000s: Aid for Poverty Reduction(7) - Increases in Private capital market flows were greater than ODA’s (unit: %) 1995-96 AVG. 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 32 80 55 50 35 34 24 46 4 0 0 -3 0 -4 -2 -1 60 8 37 47 59 64 73 46 1. FDI 31 49 39 48 33 42 42 67 2. Bilateral Securities 28 -37 -5 -2 24 20 30 -20 3. Multilateral Securities 0 -4 1 -3 0 1 -2 -4 4. Export Finances 2 0 2 4 2 1 3 2 3 12 8 7 5 5 4 9 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 I. ODA II. Other Official Flows III. Private Markets IV. NGOs’ Grants Total (net flows) Increases in NON-DAC ODA Evolution of ODA (12) • 2000s: Aid for Poverty Reduction(7) - Allocation of Aid Funds • By Region RegionLatin 1995/96 2000/01 2005/06 2008 33.9 33.4 42.8 33.0 12.0 11.2 17.5 15.5 Central-South Asia 11.6 12.6 10.0 16.0 Other Asia + Oceania 15.4 10.5 6.6 21.4 Latin America 12.6 12.8 7.1 9.9 Eastern Europe 5.3 10.9 6.3 4.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East + N. Africa (MENA) Total Evolution of ODA (12) • 2000s: Aid for Poverty Reduction(7) - Allocation of Aid Funds • By Income level Low Income (Lowest + Lower Middle Upper Middle Income other low Income) States Income States States 1971 57 26 17 1981 55 19 25 1990 71 21 8 2000 62 34 4 2006/7 63 32 5 Year • Allocation of Aid By Type • 1995~96 Avg. 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 1. Bilateral Grants 63 69 75 72 80 76 73 72 -Tech Assistance 35 38 34 33 25 27 14 14 -Food Aid 5 2 2 3 0 0 1 1 -Humanitarian Aid 5 7 7 8 7 8 6 7 -Debt Reduction 10 11 17 11 29 23 9 9 -Administration 10 7 7 8 4 4 4 4 2. Bilateral Loans/Credits 6 1 -2 -4 -3 -3 -3 -1 3. Contributions to IGOs 31 30 27 32 23 27 30 29 -UN 22 29 27 19 25 22 6 5 -EC 33 33 40 38 38 33 11 11 -IDA 33 20 13 25 25 22 5 7 -Regional MDBs 12 28 7 6 12 0 2 3 ODA (net) •Evolution of ODA (12) 2000s: Aid for Poverty Reduction(7) - Allocation of Aid Funds By Sector (unit:%) Sector 1985/6 2005/6 2008 Social + Adm Infra 25 32 40 Economic Infra 17 11 21 Agriculture 12 3 5 Industry + other Production 7 2 22 3 6 2 8 8 Other 14 41 20 Total 100 100 100 (Support for or through NGOs) (--) 5 Goods+Program Humanitarian Support Questions Raised (1) 1. Humanitarian Aid vs. Economic Development vs. Mutual Benefits? -What should be the main objectives of our government’s official development assistance? 2.Tied or Untied Aid? -To what extent should we untie ODA? How we should untie our ODA 3. Appraisal vs. Evaluation? -On which part of the project cycle should our government place emphasis in the allocation of aid-resource for effective aid? 4. Grants vs. Loans? -On the basis of Korea’s experience with greater amount of loans than grants, should Korea offer more loans than grants to its partners? Or should it follow the world trend of more grants? 5. By Sector vs. by type of aid? -How our grant agencies like MOFAT/KOICA and lending agency like MOSF/EDCF, should coordinate (or specialize)their activities in terms of their aims, recipient countries, sectors, and type of aid activities? How Questions Raised (2) 6. Bilateral vs. Multilateral for North Korea? -Should Korea convert South-North Economic Cooperation Fund operations to ODA? Why and How? Should we do it? Through BODA or MODA? 7. Partner’s System vs. Donor’s system for financial management and Procurement of goods and services with the ODA funds? -Should we use recipient government’s financial management and procurement systems for our ODA? Or we should use donor’s systems? 8. Conditional vs. Non-Conditional ODA? -Should we use conditional ODA, such conditions as governance reform (market system, democracy), corruption reduction, gender equality or environmental preservation, trade opening, fiscal balance, etc.? 9. Global Crisis vs. Development for G-20 agenda? -Should ODA be on the agenda of the G-20 Seoul Summit? Or should it focus on the recovery from and prevention of the Global economic crisis? 10. Korean ODA Model or Universal Model for ODA? -Should there be a Korean ODA Model? Or should we just follow DACmember countries’ models and practices?
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