Cross-Flagship Project:
Alpine Fault
Flagship 5 – Pathways to Resilience
www.resorgs.org.nz
What is MERIT?
Computer simulation model for assessing the economic impacts of
disruption events
• Based on general equilibrium theory adapted for business disruption
response and equilibrium-seeking dynamics
• Multi-agent including 70+ businesses/industries, households,
government, investors, trade by 70+ commodities
• Multi-regional covering 16 regions
• Daily time steps over 20 years
• Reports direct, flow-on/cascading impacts (value added, income,
employment and other indicators)
• 3 versions: inoperability (<1 wk), dynamic two-region (>1 wk), Auckland
spatially explicit model (50m resolution)
www.resorgs.org.nz
Outage maps
Direct impacts e.g. operability
&
Impacted business
Reporting
MERIT flow-on impacts
Sector Output - Auckland
200,000
NZ$2007m pa
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
8
Manufacturing
Services
8.25
8.50
Time
Primary
8.75
9
How is MERIT being applied
• Single infrastructure disruptions
• Electricity (Vector, Transpower),
• Port (Lyttelton), Road (MoT, NZTA ‘Transport MERIT Online’)
• Water (WaterCare, Wellington Water)
• Natural hazard event disruptions
•
•
•
•
Alpine Fault (MCDEM)
Auckland Volcanic Field (AC, AELG)
Kaikōura (MoT/MBIE/NZTA)
Wellington Fault (GW, WELG, etc)
www.resorgs.org.nz
Cross-Flagship Project Options
Ideas
Comments/Risks
Update economic impact estimate based on
revised infrastructure damage
Shows integration of flagship work
Industry specific analysis - dairy
May depend on willingness of
industry to engage
Assessment of tipping points and demand /
population impacts
Population tip-out may not be
achieved
Tourism module creation
Depends on timing and personnel
availability
Focused assessment on economic impacts in
Wellington
Depends on availability of disruption
data in Wellington for scenario
Reconstruction module creation
Depends on timing and personnel
availability
Other?
www.resorgs.org.nz