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ERCE Oil Price Review
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EXAMPLE PLOTS ONLY
Not Meant for Consumer Use
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This document reports and summarises the findings of a review and assessment of recent historical and
future oil prices based upon literature published in the public domain.
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Disclaimer
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ERC Equipoise Ltd (“ERCE”) has compiled the following Oil Price Review for general guidance
purposes only. In order to compile the following report, a comprehensive review of information
was undertaken with the enclosed data being obtained from sources within public domain,
including energy agencies, industry publications and market data.
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ERCE has made every effort to ensure that the information and data presented herein are
accurate and reliable. ERCE does not, however, guarantee the correctness of any such
information and data and shall not be liable or responsible for any loss, costs, damages or
expenses incurred or sustained by anyone resulting from any recommendation made by any of
its officers, agents or employee.
In the absence of guidance from a client in relation to oil price assumptions, ERCE would
assume the oil price scenarios presented in this slide pack. These oil price scenarios are derived
in context of the information available in the public domain and should not be construed as oil
price forecasts, predictions or projections by ERCE.
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Clients should be aware that any final assumptions represented herein are based on currently
available data, which, however, due to the highly volatile characteristic of the oil market, are only
temporary and subject to change. ERCE reserves the right to modify this Oil Price Review at any
time, and revised values may differ significantly from previous estimates.
In the case that material is delivered in digital format, ERCE does not accept any responsibility
for edits carried out after the product has left the Company’s premises.
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Review of Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices
All prices as at 14 July 2015
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All dollar amounts are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise indicated
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Brent and WTI Crude Spot Price Review
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Crude oil prices have trended lower in recent weeks as markets focused on Tehran’s nuclear deal and the potential impact
of higher oil exports, worries of a slowdown in China impacting global oil demand growth, concerns of a Greek Euro exit
sparking risk aversion across all asset classes, the resilience of US shale oil production, continued surge in oil
inventories and strong production growth from OPEC.
$/stb
58.5
‐
53.0
‐
63.9
‐8%
60.0
‐2%
0%
53.3
10%
20%
48.5
21%
‐45%
100.9
‐42%
29%
42.1
39%
‐16%
60.5
‐3%
‐1%
53.4
10%
58.4
6M Ago
48.7
1Yr Ago
107.0
YTD Low
45.2
YTD High
69.6
2015 YTD Average
59.3
Brent Crude Daily Spot Price: 6M Candlestick Chart
110
(2)
100
(4)
90
(6)
80
(8)
70
(10)
60
(12)
50
(14)
40
(16)
WTI Crude Daily Spot Price: 6M Candlestick Chart
65
55
50
Feb‐15
Mar‐15
Apr‐15
Source: Intercontinental Exchange, ERC Estimates
May‐15
Jun‐15
Jul‐15
60
55
50
45
40
Jan‐15
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60
Brent Crude Spot Price ($/stb)
65
45
Jan‐15
‐
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Brent Crude Spot Price ($/stb)
70
Brent Spot
WTI‐Brent Spread ‐ $/stb
$/stb
WTI Spot
120
J‐15
3M Ago
WTI‐Brent Spread
%Chg vs Current
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1M Ago
WTI
%Chg vs Current
J‐14
14‐Jul‐15
Brent
Brent and WTI Spot ‐ $/stb
Brent and WTI Crude Oil Spot Price: Current Vs. Historical
Brent/WTI Crude Spot Price and Spread (Jan 2014+)
Feb‐15
Mar‐15
Apr‐15
May‐15
Jun‐15
4
Jul‐15
Brent Crude Oil Futures Curve Review
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The Brent futures curve remains in Contango. The front month contract for Brent has experienced volatility in recent
weeks with near-term prices decreasing compared to longer-dated contracts. Long-term price has settled at between
$70/stb and $75/stb since the beginning of the year.
Brent Crude Futures Curve: April 2014 to April 2015
36M‐48M
5
100
24M‐36M
0
90
‐5
80
40
12M‐24M
6M‐12M
0M‐6M
Jul‐15
Jun‐15
‐25
May‐15
50
Apr‐15
‐20
Mar‐15
60
Feb‐15
‐15
Jan‐15
70
Dec‐14
‐10
Nov‐14
M25
M1
M13
40
$/stb
110
Sep‐14
50
$/stb
10
Aug‐14
60
M73
70
M61
80
14‐Jul‐14
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$/stb
90
14‐Jan‐15
M49
100
14‐Apr‐15
Oct‐14
14‐Jun‐15
M37
14‐Jul‐15
110
Brent Futures Curve Spread (12M Ago to Current)
Brent Spot
(RHS)
Brent Crude Futures Contracts: Annual Averages 14‐Jul‐15
14‐Jun‐15
110
14‐Jan‐15
14‐Jul‐14
Annual Averages of Brent Futures Contracts
$/stb
90
70
60
50
2015
2016
2017
2018
Source: Intercontinental Exchange, ERC Estimates
2019
2020
2021
2016
2017
2018
2019
2022
2020
2021
2022
14‐Jul‐15
59
62
66
69
70
71
72
73
14‐Jun‐15
65
68
70
72
73
74
75
75
14‐Apr‐15
61
66
69
71
72
73
74
75
14‐Jan‐15
54
62
67
70
72
74
75
‐
14‐Jul‐14
107
104
101
100
99
99
99
‐
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80
2015
PL
100
$/stb
14‐Apr‐15
5
UK NBP Natural Gas Futures Contracts
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UK NBP natural gas prices have drifted lower in 2Q15 as supply in LNG shipments from the Middle East increased,
Asian gas prices collapsed, coupled with strong gas flows from Russia and Norway in to Europe.
UK Natural Gas NBP Daily Spot Price: 6 Month Candlestick Chart
52
50
48
46
44
42
40
Jan‐15
Feb‐15
Apr‐15
14‐Jan‐15
14‐Oct‐14
55
50
45
40
Sep‐15
Jun‐15
UK NBP Gas Spot Price (Annual Average) (2000‐2015YTD)
Sep‐16
Sep‐17
Sep‐18
Sep‐19
Sep‐20
Sep‐21
UK NBP Natural Gas Futures Curve Annual Averages
14‐Jul‐15
UK NBP Gas Price (p/therm)
14‐Apr‐15
14‐Jan‐15
14‐Oct‐14
14‐Jul‐14
65
50
40
20
10
‐
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Source: Intercontinental Exchange, IMF, EIA, ERC Estimates
60
55
50
45
40
2012
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
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30
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60
UK NBP Gas Price (p/therm)
70
UK NBP Gas Spot Price (p/therm)
14‐Apr‐15
60
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UK NBP Natural Gas Price (p/therm)
54
14‐Jul‐15
65
UK NBP Gas Price (p/therm)
56
UK Natural Gas NBP Futures Curve
6
2022
A Review of Global Natural Gas Spot Prices
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Strong supply coming in to Europe from Russia competing with cheaper LNG shipments (as low as <$8/MMbtu) drove
European gas prices lower during 2Q 2015. Appetite for spot LNG in northeast Asia remained weak through 1H15
keeping prices low.
Global Gas Prices (Jan 2013‐2015YTD) Monthly Average Prices
15
US Henry Hub
120
90
60
10
5
30
Jun‐15
Jan to May 2015
($/MMbtu)
($/MMbtu)
% Chg
7.02
6.67
‐5%
German Import
9.50
7.30
‐23%
US Henry Hub
2.97
2.77
‐7%
Japan LNG
10.20
7.60
‐25%
Brent Crude ($/stb)
48.42
62.35
29%
UK NBP
‐
J‐14
J‐15
Global Gas Prices (1992‐2015YTD) Monthly Average Prices
20
Japan Spot LNG
Brent Crude Spot
120
80
5
40
‐
J‐00
J‐02
J‐04
J‐06
J‐08
J‐10
J‐12
Source: Intercontinental Exchange, IMF, EIA, METI, ERC Estimates
‐
J‐14
German Import
Brent/Forties (RHS)
UK NBP
120
15
90
10
60
5
30
‐
‐
1984
1988
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10
20
160
Japan Spot LNG
US Henry Hub
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15
Global Gas Prices (1984‐2015YTD) Annual Average Prices ($/MMbtu)
US Henry Hub
Brent Crude Spot Price ($/stb)
German Import
UK NBP
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
7
Brent/Forties Crude ($/stb)
J‐13
Global Gas Prices ($/MMbtu)
‐
Global Gas Prices ($/MMbtu)
Jan‐15
Monthly Average Spot Prices
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Global Gas Prices ($/MMbtu)
20
Japan Spot LNG
Brent Crude Spot
Brent Crude Spot Price ($/stb)
German Import
UK NBP
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Brent Pricing Based on SEC Regulations
8
Brent Pricing Based on SEC Regulations
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01‐Jul‐15
01‐Jun‐15
01‐May‐15
01‐Apr‐15
01‐Mar‐15
01‐Feb‐15
01‐Jan‐15
01‐Dec‐14
01‐Nov‐14
01‐Oct‐14
01‐Sep‐14
01‐Aug‐14
62
65
66
57
63
53
57
73
86
94
103
105
12M Arith. Avg
Brent Pricing ‐ SEC Regulations
$/stb
Brent Spot @1st of Month
($/stb)
Brent Spot
@1st of Month
110
74
Pricing Based on SEC Rules
100
90
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Rolling 12M
Date
80
74
70
60
50
Aug‐14
Oct‐14
Dec‐14
Feb‐15
Apr‐15
Jun‐15
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• Shown for reference purposes only, the data above indicates the current Brent price as Defined by SEC
Regulations.
• This is calculated by taking the 12-month unweighted arithmetic average of 1st-day-of-the-month Brent prices.
Source: Intercontinental Exchange, SEC, ERCE Estimates
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• Definition 22.V (31 December 2009): "Existing economic conditions include prices and costs at which economic
producibility from a reservoir is to be determined. The price shall be the average price during the 12-month
period prior to the ending date of the period covered by the report, determined as an unweighted arithmetic
average of the first-day-of-the-month price for each month within such period, unless prices are defined by
contractual arrangements, excluding escalations based upon future conditions."
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Global Oil Macro:
Demand and Supply
10
Global Oil Demand Growth Expectations Rebound
94
92
88
Global Oil Demand YoY Chg
4
12 MMA ‐ Demand
3
2
1
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90
Global Oil Demand: YoY Change
Demand 12 MMA
MMstb/d
Global Oil Demand
96
MMstb/d
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Global Oil Demand
0
‐1
‐2
86
‐3
84
‐4
82
‐5
J‐08
J‐09
J‐10
J‐11
J‐12
J‐13
J‐14
J‐15
J‐07
IEA Expected 2014 Global Oil Demand Growth
Estimated 2014 World Oil Demand (LHS)
Estimated 2014 Global Oil Demand YoY Chg (RHS)
J‐14
J‐15
Estimated 2015 Global Oil Demand YoY Chg (RHS)
1.4
1.2
94.0
1.0
0.8
93.5
0.8
0.6
93.0
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Agency, ERCE Estimates
MMstb/d
MMstb/d
EX
MMstb/d
J‐13
0.6
J‐14 A‐14 S‐14 O‐14 N‐14 D‐14 J‐15 F‐15 M‐15 A‐15 M‐15 J‐15
Month of IEA OMR Publication
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Month of IEA OMR Publication
J‐12
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J‐14
J‐11
94.5
1.0
92.0
J‐10
Estimated 2015 Global Oil Demand (LHS)
95.0
1.2
92.5
J‐09
IEA Expected 2015 Global Oil Demand Growth
1.4
93.0
J‐08
11
MMstb/d
J‐07
Global Oil Demand: OECD Vs Non-OECD
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OECD Oil Demand
52
48
OECD Oil Demand YoY Chg
2
12 MMA
1
0
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MMstb/d
50
OECD Oil Demand: YoY Change
12 MMA
MMstb/d
OECD Oil Demand
‐1
‐2
46
‐3
44
‐4
J‐07
J‐08
J‐09
Non‐OECD Oil Demand
J‐10
J‐11
J‐12
J‐13
J‐08
J‐09
J‐10
J‐11
J‐12
J‐13
J‐14
J‐15
12 MMA
4
Non‐OECD Oil Demand YoY Chg
12 MMA
PL
3
48
42
‐2
38
‐3
36
J‐08
J‐09
J‐10
J‐11
J‐12
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, ERCE Estimates
J‐13
0
‐1
40
J‐07
1
J‐14
J‐15
J‐07
J‐08
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44
MMstb/d
2
46
MMstb/d
J‐07
J‐15
Non‐OECD Oil Demand: YoY Change
Non‐OECD Oil Demand
50
J‐14
J‐09
J‐10
J‐11
J‐12
J‐13
J‐14
12
J‐15
Global Oil Supply Continues to Exceed Demand
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Global Oil Supply
96
94
90
88
86
Supply 12 MMA
Global Oil Supply YoY Chg
12 MMA ‐ Supply
4
3
2
1
AM
MMstb/d
92
Global Oil Suppl: YoY Change
MMstb/d
Global Oil Supply
0
‐1
84
‐2
82
‐3
J‐07
J‐08
J‐09
J‐10
J‐11
J‐12
J‐13
J‐14
J‐15
J‐07
J‐08
J‐09
J‐10
J‐11
J‐12
J‐13
J‐14
Global Oil Demand Growth Vs. Global Oil Supply Growth
3.5
Global Oil Demand YoY Chg
12 MMA ‐ Demand
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
Jan‐14
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, ERCE Estimates
Apr‐14
Jul‐14
Oct‐14
Jan‐15
Apr‐15
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MMstb/d
2.5
PL
3.0
Global Oil Supply YoY Chg
12 MMA ‐ Supply
13
J‐15
OPEC Official Target Maintained at 30 MMstb/d
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OPEC Crude Oil Production
34
33
MMstb/d
32
31
30
12 MMA
OPEC Crude Oil Production YoY Chg
12 MMA
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
‐1.0
AM
29
OPEC Crude Oil Supply: YoY Change
MMstb/d
OPEC Crude Oil Supply
‐2.0
28
‐3.0
J‐08
J‐09
J‐10
J‐11
J‐12
J‐13
J‐15
J‐07
J‐08
J‐09
J‐10
J‐11
J‐12
J‐13
J‐14
E
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, ERCE Estimates
J‐14
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J‐07
14
J‐15
Non-OPEC and U.S. Oil Supply
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Non‐OPEC Oil Supply
60
56
54
52
12 MMA
Non‐OPEC Oil Supply YoY Chg
12 MMA
3.0
2.0
1.0
AM
MMstb/d
58
Non‐OPEC Oil Supply: YoY Change
MMstb/d
Non‐OPEC Oil Supply
0.0
‐1.0
50
48
‐2.0
J‐07
J‐08
J‐09
J‐10
U.S. Crude Oil and Liquids Supply
J‐11
J‐12
J‐13
J‐15
J‐07
J‐08
J‐09
J‐10
J‐11
J‐12
J‐13
J‐14
J‐15
U.S. Crude Oil and Liquids Supply: YoY Change
United States Oil Supply
16
J‐14
12 MMA
United States Oil Supply YoY Chg
12 MMA
2.5
PL
2.0
14
MMstb/d
12
10
‐0.5
‐1.0
6
J‐08
J‐09
J‐10
J‐11
J‐12
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, ERCE Estimates
J‐13
0.5
0.0
8
J‐07
1.0
‐1.5
J‐14
J‐15
J‐07
J‐08
J‐09
J‐10
J‐11
J‐12
J‐13
J‐14
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MMstb/d
1.5
15
J‐15
Growth in Non-OPEC Supply Driven by U.S. Production
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U.S. Onshore Active Oil Rigs
Oil Rig Count
1,200
800
Permian
5.0
Niobrara
4.0
June 2015: 578
600
Utica
Marcellus
Haynesville
3.0
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Rig Count
1,000
6.0
Oct 2014: 1,308
MMstb/d
1,400
U.S. Onshore Oil Production by Region
Eagleford
2.0
400
Bakken
1.0
200
‐
J‐07
J‐08
J‐09
J‐10
U.S. Crude Oil and Liquids Supply
J‐11
J‐12
J‐13
‐
J‐15
J‐07
J‐08
J‐09
J‐10
J‐11
J‐12
J‐13
J‐14
J‐15
U.S. Crude Oil and Liquids Supply: YoY Change
United States Oil Supply
16
J‐14
12 MMA
United States Oil Supply YoY Chg
12 MMA
2.5
PL
2.0
14
MMstb/d
12
10
‐0.5
‐1.0
6
J‐08
J‐09
J‐10
J‐11
J‐12
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, ERCE Estimates
J‐13
0.5
0.0
8
J‐07
1.0
‐1.5
J‐14
J‐15
J‐07
J‐08
J‐09
J‐10
J‐11
J‐12
J‐13
J‐14
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MMstb/d
1.5
16
J‐15
OECD and U.S. Commercial Oil Inventories
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2015
2,750
2,700
2,650
2,600
2,550
OECD Oil Demand Cover (RHS)
2,900
64
2,850
62
2,800
60
2,750
58
2,700
56
2,650
54
2,600
52
2,550
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M
Total U.S. Commercial Oil Stocks
5yr range
J
J
1,200
2014
N
2013
1,050
M
A
J‐09
J‐10
J‐11
J‐12
J‐13
J‐14
50
J‐15
M
J
J
A
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, ERCE Estimates
S
U.S. Oil Demand Cover (RHS)
1,300
70
1,250
65
1,200
60
1,150
55
1,100
50
1,050
45
1,000
950
1,000
F
J‐08
U.S. Comm. Oil Stocks (LHS)
2012
1,100
J
J‐07
D
O
N
D
J‐07
J‐08
J‐09
J‐10
J‐11
J‐12
J‐13
40
J‐14
J‐15
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1,150
O
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1,250
S
Total U.S. Commercial Oil Stocks and Demand Cover
2015
1,300
A
Total Oil Stocks ‐ MMstb
2,500
MMstb
OECD Comm. Oil Stocks (LHS)
2012
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MMstb
2,800
2013
17
Days of Demand Cover
2,850
2014
Total Oil Stocks ‐ MMstb
5yr range
2,900
Total OECD Commercial Oil Stocks and Demand Cover
Days of Demand Cover
Total OECD Commercial Oil Stocks
Unplanned Outages and Production Spare Capacity
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Unplanned Crude Oil Production Outages
3.5
3.0
2.0
1.5
Saudi Arabia
3.5
Kuwait
3.0
Iraq
2.5
Nigeria
2.0
Libya
AM
MMstb/d
2.5
Unplanned OPEC Crude Oil Production Outages
OPEC
MMstb/d
Non‐OPEC
Iran
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
Jan‐12
Jan‐13
Jan‐14
Jan‐15
Jan‐12
Jan‐13
Jan‐14
Jan‐15
OPEC Crude Oil Production Spare Capacity
OPEC Crude Oil Production Spare Capacity
5
4%
2
1
Jan‐11
3%
2%
1%
Jan‐12
Jan‐13
Jan‐14
Jan‐15
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MMstb/d
5%
3
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, ERCE Estimates
PL
4
0
Jan‐10
6%
OPEC Spare Production as % of Global Demand
18
Sanctions on Iran Keep Production Low; Libyan Crude Production
Struggling to Recover
AM
PL
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Iran Crude Oil Supply
4.0
3.8
MMstb/d
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0
12 MMA
Iran Crude Oil Supply YoY Chg
12 MMA
0.4
0.2
0.0
‐0.2
‐0.4
‐0.6
‐0.8
AM
2.8
Oil Supply YoY Change: Iran
MMstb/d
Oil Supply: Iran
‐1.0
2.6
‐1.2
J‐08
J‐09
J‐10
J‐11
J‐12
J‐13
J‐15
J‐07
J‐08
J‐09
J‐10
J‐11
J‐12
J‐13
J‐14
E
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, ERCE Estimates
J‐14
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J‐07
19
J‐15
Libyan Crude Production Struggling to Recover
1.5
1.0
Libya Crude Oil Supply YoY Chg
12 MMA
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
‐0.5
AM
0.5
Oil Supply YoY Change: Libya
12 MMA
MMstb/d
Libya Crude Oil Supply
2.0
MMstb/d
AM
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Oil Supply: Libya
‐1.0
‐1.5
0.0
‐2.0
J‐08
J‐09
J‐10
J‐11
J‐12
J‐13
J‐15
J‐07
J‐08
J‐09
J‐10
J‐11
J‐12
J‐13
J‐14
J‐15
E
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, ERCE Estimates
J‐14
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J‐07
20
AM
AM
PL
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E
PL
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Long Term Oil Price (1970 – 2015 YTD)
21
Long Term Crude Oil Price - Annual Average (1970 – 2015YTD)
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Oil Price History: Long‐Term Crude Oil Price (Real Vs. Nominal)
$ Nominal (money of the day)
120
1979: Iranian Revolution
100
$ Real (March 2015)
1980‐1986: Non‐OPEC production increased 6 MMb/d
and OPEC attempted to set production quotas
1985: Saudis abandon swing producer role
1999 ‐ 2008: Strong demand growth from Non‐OECD Countries and low
OPEC spare capacity
1973: Arab oil embargo
60
40
20
AM
$/stb
80
1998: Asian Financial
Crisis
1990: Iraq invades
Kuwait
1998‐1999: OPEC production
decreased ~3 MMb/d
Nominal - economic value expressed in historical nominal monetary terms, also known as “money-of-the-day”.
Real - Economic value that has been adjusted from a nominal value to remove the effects of general price level changes over time (using
the CPI from US Bureau of Labour Statistics) and is thus measured in terms of the general price level in some reference year (the base year
e.g. 2015).
1945-1983 Arabian Light posted at Ras Tanura.
1984-2013 Brent dated.
2014 Brent spot.
Source: Intercontinental Exchange, U.S. Energy Information Administration, BP, ERCE Estimates
E
•
•
•
2014 ‐ 2015: Strong supply, weak demand, Saudis look to
maintaining market share instea
of acting as swing producer
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015…
EX
•
•
2009: OPEC cuts targets 4.2 MMb/d
PL
‐
2008: Global Financial Crisis
22
ERCE Oil Price Review: Glossary
AM
PL
E
EX
All dollar amounts are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise
indicated.
btu
British thermal unit
Chg
Change.
ERCE
ERC Equipoise Ltd.
IEA
International Energy Agency
M
Month (e.g. 1M Ago = one month ago).
MMstb
million stock tank barrels.
OPEC
Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Its
mandate is to "coordinate and unify the petroleum policies"
of its members and to "ensure the stabilization of oil markets
in order to secure an efficient, economic and regular supply
of petroleum to consumers, a steady income to producers,
and a fair return on capital for those investing in the
petroleum industry."
Real
Economic value that has been adjusted from a nominal
value to remove the effects of general price level
changes over time and is thus measured in terms of
the general price level in some reference year (the base
year e.g. 2013).
AM
$
MMstb/d Million stock tank barrels per day.
MMA
MoM
stb
stock tank barrels.
Month Moving average (12MMA = twelve month moving
average).
YoY
Year-on-year (e.g. YoY Chg = year-on-year percentage
change).
Month-on-month
change).
YTD
Year-to-date.
(e.g.
MoM
Chg
=
month-on-month
a unit of heat equal to 100,000 British thermal units and
approximately the energy equivalent of burning 100 cubic
feet of natural gas.
OECD
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development - an international economic organisation of 34
countries and include many of the world’s most advanced
countries but also emerging countries like Mexico, Chile and
Turkey.
E
EX
Therm
PL
Nominal Economic value expressed in historical nominal monetary
terms, also known as “money-of-the-day”.
23