Paper presented at the British Educational Research Association New Researchers/Student Conference, Institute of Education, University of London, 5 September 2007 Career Choice and Possible Selves in the Midlands: A comparison of Year 11 pupils’ education and employment aspirations to their wider world of hopes and fears, pre-GCSE examination By Jenny Symonds PhD Researcher Faculty of Education University of Cambridge Abstract The psychological construct of possible selves was used in a survey of 200 Year 11 pupils in an English Midlands’ city to determine pupils’ types and evaluations of future job choices in comparison to their general hopes and fears for after Year 11. The survey found that patterns of job choices differed with gender and that the range of choices became more restricted with lower levels of achievement and socioeconomic status, fitting with traditional theories in occupational psychology. The majority of pupils’ hopes and fears were centred on education and employment, with pupils most hoping to achieve their future careers and to avoid educational failure. Pupils highly valued their future career aspirations yet believed that their educational fears were most likely to occur out of all three generated possible selves. Pupils were more motivated towards avoiding educational failure than they were towards achieving employment related success, perhaps as their impending GCSE examinations were likely to determine their choices of education, employment or training for after Year 11. Interestingly, pupils of mid achievement were less likely than high or low achievers to have employment hopes or fears. Mid achievers valued their choice of future employment less, thought it less likely to occur and were less motivated by it. This finding has implications for careers education and guidance practitioners who may find that pupils of mid achievement ‘slip through the net’ and are prone to disengaging from their choices of post-compulsory education destinations. Research Scenario In Britain, many young people are required to choose between continuing in education, and entering employment or training, in advance of finishing their last year of compulsory schooling in Year 11 (age 15-16) at secondary school or high school. This choice is often an initial step into a future career trajectory, where ‘career’ can be described as a general ‘life process’ (Chen 1998, p.437) or a person’s ‘course through life’ (Bloomer and Hodkinson 2000, p.590). During adolescence, changes in the individual’s physiology and social environment can prompt rapid psychological growth, where, as Eccles puts it, “adult roles are still being chosen and one’s future life is still flexible” (1987 p.256). During this time individuals begin to crystallize their career choices through matching observed roles to self (Super 1957, Holland, 1985) and their aptitudes and abilities or ‘skill sets’ to career (Ginzberg et al. 1951). This process is often influenced by their social surroundings (Marcia, 1989) and their degree of self knowledge (Baker 2002). As Vondracek and Porfeli (2006) state, preparation for the world of work is often a central part of adolescent development, entailing movement towards autonomy and adulthood. Consequentially as the end of compulsory schooling approaches, choosing a career which enables this progression becomes paramount to many adolescents (Kniveton 2004), a task which may be confounded by the fluidity of adolescent identity and the burgeoning career opportunities existing in contemporary society. Global influence and population growth have influenced the range of vocational and professional choices available to young people in England. Industries have altered in form (Russell 2001) and new ones are continuously created to address consumer demands. The English Government’s drive to widen access to higher education and to improve the population’s skill level has broadened the options for people of all ages to extend their education or enter training. This may stem from reported Governmental anxiety about England’s low retention rates in post-16 education where among 28 organisation for economic co-operation and development (OECD) countries (2003), the UK is the fifth lowest at 76% (Crewe 2005). Although career choices are increasing, traditional worker roles are rapidly disappearing (Russell 2001, Chen 1998) as is the notion of a ‘job for life’ (Sanderson 2004 p.6) which describes the likelihood for people to spend their working years in a single occupation. Contemporary career paths are prone to encompassing multiple forms of employment (Worth 2002), increasing ‘career choice chaos’ for individuals whose decisions are influenced by a multitude of factors, many of which are unpredictable, such as unplanned occurrences and chance events (Pryor and Bright 2003). The resulting scenario creates a ‘world of work’ (Super 1984) whose form is constantly changing, providing more choices and more opportunities for young people than ever before. To assist young people in choosing a career during the potentially vulnerable time period of adolescence, the English Government has instigated ‘careers education and guidance’ (CEG) in all schools, run by the Connexions counselling service. Connexions careers counsellors, or ‘Personal Advisors’ (PAs), administer CEG in a variety of ways. Some PAs deliver CEG presentations to whole year groups then host individual careers education and guidance ‘drop in’ sessions throughout the school week. CEG can also be given as part of the curriculum during personal hygiene and social education lessons (PHSE) when PHSE teachers are qualified CEG practitioners. PAs help pupils to identify areas of occupational interest and match these to their skill sets. Pupils are assisted in decision-making, an ability which may be in the developmental stages during adolescence. PAs advise pupils on choosing subjects and achieving the necessary grades in their General Certificate in Secondary Education (GCSE) examinations so that they might secure a position in a course of education, employment or training for after Year 11. They guide pupils through the emotional and intellectual demands of making applications and accommodating rejections for these post-16 destinations1, then track all young people after Year 11, to review their progress in their options or in their status as NEET (not in education, employment or training), (DFES 2005). CEG may help alleviate career choice confusion for Year 11 pupils. However, the psychological pressures of their GCSE examinations (as documented by Ramon and Frydenberg 2004, Denscombe 2000, Bishop 1997) when combined with choosing a career might result in increased anxiety and a loss of affective wellbeing, especially when the results from those examinations determine the success of pupils’ career choices. It remains then to ask to what extent are pupils focused on their career choices and their future examinations at this time, compared to their general hopes and fears for after Year 11? Possible Selves Pupils’ career choices and general hopes and fears were determined by using the psychological construct of ‘possible selves’ (Markus and Nurius, 1987) or who we might be in the future. Possible selves are prospective self conceptions such as those of ‘me finding a job next June’ or ‘me achieving five A*-C GCSE grades in a 1 A course of education, employment or training for after Year 11 (DFES 2005) 2 month from now’. These imaginings are part of the self concept which is a dynamic collection of “images, schemas, conceptions, prototypes, theories, goals, or tasks” (Markus and Wurf, 1986, p.301). Markus and Nurius (1987) distinguished between hoped for (positive) and feared for (negative) possible selves, a division which has been used in investigations of adolescent behaviour, for example delinquency (Oyserman and Saltz 1993, Oyserman and Markus 1990), academic achievement and engagement (Oyserman et al., in press; 2002), self-regulation (Oyserman et al., 2004) and career choice (Packard and Nguyen 2003, Kerpelman et al. 2002, Meara et al. 1995). Possible selves have been identified in various domains, exemplified in the exhaustive coding system developed by Oyserman and colleagues, as published in Unemori et al. (2004) and tested in relation to English students in the current study by Symonds (2007). This contains the categories of ‘intrapersonal, interpersonal, career, education, acquiring material goods, extracurricular activities and health fears’ Figure 1) Content of possible selves (Unemori et al., 2004) Positive Possible Self Intrapersonal Interpersonal Negative Possible Self ‘Fears’ Material Goods Career Education Health Extra Curricular Prior coding of negative and positive possible selves into ‘life domains’ and their application in research on adolescence made them an appropriate choice in studying pupils’ general hopes and fears and their choices of future employment. Multiple possible selves are thought to exist at any one time within the self concept (Markus and Nurius, 1987) and accordingly, most surveys of possible selves ask for two or three examples. The resulting selves may be hierarchical, as indicated by William James’ (1890) theory that self conceptions have differing degrees of saliency and that one is usually dominant. In relation to this, possible selves have been evaluated for their importance (Unemori et al. 2004), their likelihood to occur and for the time that participants spend thinking about them (Dunkel, 2000). Their perceived accessibility and availability has been correlated to participants’ motivation towards achieving or avoiding them (Norman and Aron 2003). Positive academic possible selves have been linked to self-regulation at school (Oyserman et al. 2004) and interventions with minority early adolescents have used possible selves theory to assist school engagement and the development of constructive life pathways (Oyserman et al. 2002). By seeking Year 11 pupils’ evaluations of their possible selves, the current study should be able to estimate not only the frequency but also the significance of pupils’ future career choices in comparison to their wider world of hopes and fears. 3 Method Sample The research was conducted in a city in the Midlands of England. Two state comprehensive schools were chosen for study, one from the middle and one from the top of the BBC education league tables for the city’s Local Authority. 90 pupils in school A (Female n. 53, Male n. 55) and 109 pupils in school A (Female n. 44, Male n. 46) volunteered to participate (total 199 pupils). Measures The questionnaire asked participants to report their most likely choice of future employment, their most hoped for possible self and their most feared for possible self for after Year 11. Employment possible selves. The employment self was gathered to produce data that was comparable to that from Connexions who assisted the project. An occupational coding frame was developed from 14 proposed specialised diplomas (to be introduced into the English education system after 2008). Some diplomas such as ‘creative arts and media’ were split into two items to allow a more refined response. The additional categories of ‘police and armed forces’ and ‘administrative’ were included. The occupational coding frame received an inter-rater coder reliability rating of 100% from two coders using 25% of responses. Positive and Negative Possible Selves. Pupils were asked ‘What job do you realistically think you will go into after education?’ to secure their employment possible self. Their hopes were gathered by asking ‘What positive or happy thing that might happen after Year 11, do you honestly daydream or think about the most?’ This question was transposed into negative terms for their fears. Responses were classified into the codes from Oyserman and colleagues (as published in Unemori et al. 2004). Prior to coding, the categories were tested in relation to an inductive coding frame developed from 25% of responses, to establish their suitability for use with English adolescents. The inductive categories were considered to be either the same or similar to those from Oyserman and colleagues hence the established coding scheme was used to improve comparability with international studies, in an effort to achieve an ‘agreed objective standard’ (Coolican, 2004). Two coders using 25% of responses gave this coding frame a high inter-rater coder agreement of 97%. Intrinsic coding frame 1) Recognition Established coding frame (Unemori et al., 2004) 1) Intrapersonal: anxious, happy, rich, excited about the future 2) Partner/sex/love 2) Family/children 2) Interpersonal: keep in touch with friends, strengthen relationships 3) Employment/job 3) Employment: worried about future job 4) Education 4) Education: applying for education 5,6 and 7) Lifestyle quality 5) Extracurricular: involved in club activities, swim more (Ordered to show fit to established coding 6) Attainment of material goods: have a frame categories) regular income, buy car, buy new clothes 7) Health-related: in shape, less tired all the time, recover from surgery 4 Several responses were double barrelled, such as “doing my A levels and going to university so that I can get a good job”. Any hope or fear that included education as a means to employment was coded as ‘employment’, based on the aforementioned perspective of career as a life pathway that encompasses both employment and education. Evaluations of possible selves were discerned by using a six item scale divided into the variables of value, likelihood and self-regulation. Value. A 2-item measure of ‘how important is this’ (1 = very important, 5 = not important) and ‘how often do you think about this’ (1 = all of the time, 5 = no time at all) gathered information on the perceived value of a possible self. Likelihood. Likelihood was operationalised with a 2-item measure where pupils responded to ‘how sure are you that this thing will happen’ (1 = completely sure, 5 = completely unsure) and ‘what risk is there of this thing not happening’ (1 = no risk, 5 = a lot of risk). Self-Regulation. Pupils responded to a 2-item measure for ‘things that you are doing’, (1 = all things possible, 5 = nothing), and ‘how much effort are you making’ (1 = all your effort, 5 = no effort at all) towards achieving a possible self. Gender. Pupils circled the appropriate response (male = 54% and female = 45%). Achievement. Pupils responded to which class or ‘set achievement group’ they were in for the three core subjects of English, maths and science. (1 = top set, 2 = middle set, 3 = lower set). Between the three subjects there was high correlation in levels of achievement (Pearson’s R = p.<0.000). Therefore, each pupil’s reports of achievement were condensed into one of three categories (111, 112 = top, 122, 222, 223 = middle, 233, 333 = lower), to give three main achievement groupings (high = 38%, middle = 42%, low = 18%). Socio-Economic Status. A measure from Hoinville (1977) was extended to include salaries estimated from the Labour Force Survey (DFES 20052). Pupils reported on their parents’ occupations which were then classified in relation to expected income by using national estimates. Upper-professional Mid-professional, Managerial Service, Skilled Labour, Administrative Unskilled Labour, Pension, Casual Workers Government Benefits or not working £50,000 or above £20,000 to £49,999 £12,000 to £19,999 £8,000 to £11,999 £0 to £7999 The socio-economic status (SES) of fathers’ occupations were taken to indicate pupils’ SES as fathers were more likely to be in employment and earned on average higher incomes than mothers. The sample followed an expected pattern where most pupils were of mid-range (2-3) SES (1 = 3.5%, 2 = 45%, 3 = 30%, 4 = 6%, 5 = 4.5%). As the top and two bottom categories contained under 10% of the sample, the five categories were collapsed into three (1and2 = 1, 3 = 2, 4and5 = 3), as recommended by Oppenheim (2004). This enabled a more statistically robust analysis of group differences. The high SES category is therefore representative of mid to high SES, whereas the middle category represents pupils of mid to low SES. The majority of pupils were of high SES (55%), followed by mid SES (34%) then low SES (12%). 2 http://www.statistics.gov.uk/ 5 Validity. To reduce item bias following the request for pupils’ employment possible selves, the wording for pupils’ hopes and fears included the phrase ‘This does not have to have anything to do with a job, although it can do’. To address the potential reflexivity of the questionnaire on the production of pupils’ possible selves, yes/no tick boxes discerned whether pupils had thought about each possible self before filling in the survey. The majority of pupils reported that they had previously considered their employment choice (94%), their positive possible self (92%) and their negative possible self (80%). Pupils may have spent less time thinking about their negative possible self as the self concept tends to be positively biased (Markus and Wurf 1986). A further test of this occurred through triangulating pupils’ yes/no responses with the ‘time spent thinking about this possible self’ item (part of the value variable). This item revealed that pupils were less likely to think about their negative possible selves than any other reported self (m. 15.654, df 4, F=3.379 p <0.011). Non response. Out of 199 pupils, 23 (11.5%) did not complete the final section of the questionnaire hence they did not report any positive or negative possible selves. These pupils were most likely to be male (n. 18) and from the lower achieving school (n. 19). Results Employment Possible Selves. Pupils chose a wide range of future employment, where education (13%), business and finance (10%) and engineering (9%) were the most popular choices. Females chose education (25%), health (13%) and business and finance (11%) as their top three choices. Males chose engineering (16%), ICT (14%) and business and finance (12%). The range of choice of jobs decreased with achievement (A1 = 16, A2 = 15, A3 = 10). A similar pattern was observed where pupils of high SES chose 17 domains of job, those of mid SES chose thirteen and low SES pupils chose eight. SES and achievement are positively correlated at 0.355, (p. <0.000), indicating that the range of options which pupils identified were likely to decrease with achievement and socio-economic status. Positive and Negative Possible Selves Amounts and types of generated possible selves were analysed as frequency data. Pupils’ hopes surrounded their future employment (50%) whereas their fears centred on education (48%). Negative education possible selves were the most reported possible selves in the sample. Pupils in the current sample generated less educational hopes than in Oyserman and colleagues’ US studies of 12-13 year olds (2004), (82% negative education possible selves). As reported in Symonds (2007), this may relate to Year 11 pupils’ impending GCSE examinations, as Oyserman et al.’s younger sample had a further three years of compulsory schooling within which to situate their educational hopes compared to the current sample of school leaving age. There were no differences in the types of positive and negative possible selves reported between genders, socioeconomic statuses or levels of achievement. 6 Percentage of Possible Selves Table 1. Positive and Negative Possible Selves Across the Sample 60 50 48 50 Positive Possible Selves 40 30 20 20 9 9 10 12 9 7 7 Negative Possible Selves 10 2 2 1 1 0 n so In r pe a tr al In n so al r pe r te r ee r Ca io Ed at uc Ex n u ric ur ac tr M r la ia er lG d oo s a He lth at Almost half of the sample (47%) were focused on education and employment for both their positive and negative possible selves. 33% of pupils had only one hope or one fear focused on education or employment, whereas 20% of the sample were not focused on education or employment for either. High achievers were less likely (13%) than mid (23%) or low achievers (22) to have no education and employment possible selves (X 2 = 11.780, df 3, p. <0.008). Low achievers and high achievers generated a similar amount of possible selves that both focused on education and employment, whereas middle achieving pupils were less likely to have either two (23%), (X 2 = 11.677, df 2, p. <0.003) or one possible self (27%), (X 2 = 29.394, df 3, p. <0.000) focused on education and employment than low or high achievers. Evaluation of Possible Selves Table 2. Evaluation of Content Variables by Gender, Achievement and Socioeconomic Status Mean m. Gender M F Achievement A1 A2 A3 Socioeconomic Status S1 S2 S3 6.7 7.2 7.1 6.5 6.6*** 6.6* 7.1 8.2*** 7.8* 7.3 7.7*** 7.6*** 6.3 7.5*** 7.1*** 6.9 6.4*** 6.8*** 6.8 7.8 7.6 7.0 7.4 7.0 6.9 6.5 7.3 5.8 5.7 6.2 5.7 5.1** 6.1 6.1 6.4** 6.5 6.4* 6.1** 6.9*** 5.5* 5.8** 6.1*** 5.8* 5.0** 5.6*** 5.8 5.9 6.7 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 5.0 5.3 6.1 6.1 6.9 6.0 5.7* 6.7 6.3 6.7* 7.0 6.5 6.5** 7.5*** 5.7 6.4** 6.6*** 6.4 5.3** 6.5*** 6.2 6.8* 7.1 6.5 6.2* 7.0 5.8 5.0* 6.4 Value Employment Hopes Fears Likelihood Employment Hopes Fears Motivation Employment Hopes Fears Method of analysis: ANOVA Shaded values = highest value Bold values = lowest value Significant differences within groups: * = p. <0.05, ** = p. <0.005, *** = p. <0.000 7 Across the Sample. Pupils were most likely to value their hopes (m. 7.2), yet believed their fears as most likely to come true (m. 6.2) and perhaps accordingly were most motivated by them (m. 6.9). Pupils choices of future employment were less valued (m. 6.7) than their hopes (m. 7.2) or fears (m. 7.1). Gender. Girls valued their hopes more than boys (F = m. 8.2, M = m. 6.6) gave them higher ratings for likelihood (F = m. 6.4, M = m. 5.1), and reported being more motivated by them (F = m. 6.7, M = m. 5.7). Achievement. The value of hopes decreased with achievement (A1 = m. 7.7, A2= m. 7.5, A3 = m. 6.4) as did the value of fears (A1 = m. 7.6, A2 = m. 7.1, A3 = m. 6.8), signifying that higher achievers were more concerned about their fears and hopes than those of lesser achievement. Low achievers most valued their job choice (m. 6.9) and thought this as most likely to come true (m. 5.8) compared to their hopes (value = m. 6.4, likelihood = m. 5.0) and fears (value = m. 6.8, likelihood = m. 5.6), displaying a different pattern to high and middle achievers. All pupils were most motivated by their negative possible selves, a pattern that decreased in strength with achievement. Interestingly when compared to high and low achievers, middle achievers valued their choice of job less (A1 = m. 7.3, A2 = m. 6.3, A3 = m. 6.9), thought it was less likely to come true (A1 = m. 6.4, A2 = m. 5.5, A3 = m. 5.8) and were less motivated by it (A1 = m. 6.5, A2 = m. 5.7, A3 = m. 6.4). Socioeconomic Status. There were no significant differences among socioeconomic statuses except for pupils’ evaluation of hopes which decreased as socioeconomic status fell (S1 = m. 6.8, S1 = m. 6.2, S1 = m. 5.0). Discussion and Recommendations Pupils’ choices of future employment differed by gender, level of achievement and socioeconomic status. Males were most likely to choose jobs in engineering, followed by ICT, whereas females were likely to choose jobs in education then in health. Business and finance was the third most popular choice for both genders. The prevalence of engineering as top job choice for males may relate to the presence of a major national aircraft manufacturer and regional automobile manufacturer in the Midland’s city. In accordance with this, manufacturing is the main form of occupation in the city, employing 24.9 per cent of the working population. Young males might visualise themselves in this industry as it may form part of their local or group identities. The popularity of business and finance may correlate with its prevalence in the city, as statistics from the city census statistics (2004) show that banking and finance is the fourth most common occupation, employing 16% of its economically active inhabitants. The most common job choice for females was education, where 26% of females wanted to become nursery nurses or teachers. This was a popular choice among all girls, however it was especially common for girls from low socioeconomic backgrounds (46%) or of low achievement (53%). Bloomer and Hodkinson (2000) also perceive nursery nursing to be a common choice of occupation for females of low socio-economic status. These findings show that gender-based occupational stereotypes are prevalent in the sample. The range of future employment choices decreased with academic achievement and SES. The tendency for pupils of low academic achievement and low SES to limit their choice of realistic job has several potential explanations. Oyserman and Fryberg (2006) note that in environments of low SES there are restricted occupational and educational role models for pupils, hence limiting the possible selves that pupils create. This perspective is linked to those of careers theorists Super (1957) and Holland (1985) who propose that individuals choose a career by essentially ‘imagining’ themselves into the role of others. Therefore in some cases, pupils’ job choices may be confined to their observations of job roles in their immediate social environments. The reduction of occupational roles also 8 adheres to Ginzberg’s vocational psychology model (1951), where individuals are seen to match their skill sets to career choice. Low achieving pupils and pupils of low socio-economic status may be less likely to recognise potential matches between their abilities and aptitudes and a wide range of jobs, thereby limiting their choices of employment. Pupils’ more general hopes and fears were spread over the seven life domains of ‘employment, education, health, material goods, relationships, personal achievement and extracurricular activities’. However, education and employment featured to a far greater extent than pupils’ other hopes and fears for after Year 11. When combined, the domains of education and employment featured in 67% of all hopes and fears across the sample and made up 70% of pupils’ hopes and 57% of pupils’ fears. The majority of pupils (47%) had both hopes and fears focused on education and employment. This suggests that their forthcoming GCSE examinations and choice of post-16 destinations were impacting heavily on their self-concepts at the time of the survey. Pupils most hoped for success in their future careers (50%) and valued these above their fears or initial choices of future employment. As mentioned, the high focus on employment may align with pupils’ forthcoming school leaving examinations, that for many necessitate a career choice. The second largest similarity across groups was the prevalence of education related fears (48%), a possible scenario which pupils attached more realism to than their hopes or future job choices. Pupils were most motivated by these fears and reported doing more towards avoiding them than they did towards achieving their employment choices or hopes. Although highly valuing their hopes, pupils’ self concepts may have been more effected by their fears of “failing my GCSEs”, as in many cases these are the ‘gatekeepers’ to their future choices of education, employment or training. Girls were more likely than boys to value their hopes, to think of these as likely to come true and to be motivated by them. A suggestion is that in highly valuing their positive possible selves and believing that they can occur, girls may be more likely to formulate behaviours towards achieving them than boys. This subject would be an interesting line of research into boys’ underachievement. Low achievers were much more likely to focus their hopes on employment (66%) than mid (50%) or high achievers (45%), indicating that they may be more directed towards finding a job for after Year 11 instead of continuing with education. Accordingly, they valued their choice of future job more than high or mid achievers who may postpone their employment realities by staying at school. Low achievers had a smaller range of future job choices than mid or high achievers, perhaps due to their lower success rates across a range of subjects, a feature that may limit their skill sets and accordingly reduce their job options. Interestingly, pupils of middle achievement were far less likely to have employment hopes or fears (23%) than high (47%) or low (44%) achievers. Compared to the top and bottom levels of achievement, they valued their choice of future job less, thought it was less likely to come true and were less motivated by it. When considering Ginzberg et al.’s (1951) model of matching skill sets to career choice, it may be that this process is more difficult for mid achievers whose skill sets may not be clearly defined due to having broader or less acute experiences of successes and failures than high or low achievers. The recommendations from this paper are directed towards educational practitioners and careers counsellors. Firstly it is suggested that any person working with Year 11 pupils should acknowledge the prevalence of education and employment in their future hopes and fears, and consider that thoughts of educational failure are likely to have a strong impact on the self concept of this year group. A second recommendation is that high achieving pupils of low socio-economic status may need counselling that focuses on helping them broaden their job choices in accordance with their skill sets. 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