Canweevergettoazero-emissionworld?
iSEECongress2016
UIUC,09/12/16
StevenE.Koonin,PhD
FoundingDirector,NYU’sCenterforUrbanScienceandProgress(CUSP)
ProfessorofInformaNon,OperaNons&ManagementSciences,NYUSternSchoolofBusiness
ProfessorofCivilandUrbanEngineering,NYUTandonSchoolofEngineering
ProfessorofPhysics,NYUFacultyofArtsandSciences
Climate/Energyisacomplexand
nuancedsubject
CertainNes,uncertainNes
ScienceofNaturalSystems
SocietalResponse
Climatescience
•  Howhastheclimatechanged?
•  Whydoesitchange?Roleofhuman
influences(GHGs,Aerosols)?
•  Howwillitchangeinthefuture?
Ecosystemimpacts
•  Temperature,extremeweather,sea
levelrise,migraNonofspecies,ocean
acidificaNon
Societalimpacts(nega7veandposi7ve)
•  Agriculture,migraNon,disease,flood,…
Requiredoutput:understanding,confident
projecNons(models)overdecades
Challenges:incompleteobservaNons;small
changesinacomplexchaoNcsystem;
PossibleResponses
1.  Adapt
2.  ReduceGHGemissions
–  Reduceenergydemand,emissionslitesupply
–  Technology,economics,behavior,
percepNons,poliNcs
3.  Geoengineer
Considera7ons
•  Efficacy(Nme,scale),costs(directand
opportunity),collateralbenefits,
unintendedconsequences,public
acceptability
Values
•  Environmentvsdevelopment,
intergeneraNonal/internaNonalequity,
risktolerance
2
Climate/Energyisacomplexand
nuancedsubject
CertainNes,uncertainNes
ScienceofNaturalSystems
SocietalResponse
Climatescience
•  Howhastheclimatechanged?
•  Whydoesitchange?Roleofhuman
influences(GHGs,Aerosols)?
•  Howwillitchangeinthefuture?
Ecosystemimpacts
•  Temperature,extremeweather,sea
levelrise,migraNonofspecies,ocean
acidificaNon
Societalimpacts(nega7veandposi7ve)
•  Agriculture,migraNon,disease,flood,…
Requiredoutput:understanding,confident
projecNons(models)overdecades
Challenges:incompleteobservaNons;small
changesinacomplexchaoNcsystem;
PossibleResponses
1.  Adapt
2.  ReduceGHGemissions
–  Reduceenergydemand,emissionslitesupply
–  Technology,economics,behavior,
percepNons,poliNcs
3.  Geoengineer
Considera7ons
•  Efficacy(Nme,scale),costs(directand
opportunity),collateralbenefits,
unintendedconsequences,public
acceptability
Values
•  Environmentvsdevelopment,
intergeneraNonal/internaNonalequity,
risktolerance
3
HalfoftheCO2weemit
staysintheatmosphereforcenturies
Fossil Fuel
Burning
30
ATMOSPHERE
billion
tons go in
15 billion tons added
every year
800
3000
billion tons CO
carbon
2
Ocean
≈8
Land Biosphere (net)
+
≈7 =
15 billion tons go out
4
CumulaNveglobalCO2emissions
5
hep://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/images/ocp2007/gallery-large/thumbnails/OCP07-Fig-28.jpg
The long CO2 lifetime is highly problematic
6
Sciencedimensionsofreducinghumaninfluences
RCPs=UNIPCCemissions/concentraNonscenarios
Human
influence
Influence
at2100
7
Severeemissionconstraintsmerelyto
stabilizehumaninfluencesat“safe”levels
Alleged“safe”
NOoil,NOgas,NOcoalpost-2075(absentsequestraNonorbiologicaloffsets)
Whatarethesocio-technicalpathways/barrierstothatgoal?
8
EffectoftheCOP21INDCs*
*IntendedNaNonallyDeterminedContribuNons
Parisagreement:has5-yearreviewswithself-reporNng;non=binding,noenforcement
9
Globalcontextsto2050
•  Demographic
–  GrowingpopulaNon(7.3Bto~9.7B)
–  “Older”DevelopedWorld,“Younger”DevelopingWorld
–  UrbanizaNon(50Mperyear;50%→70%urban)
•  Economic
–  DevelopmentofMostOftheWorld
–  Growingdemandforresources(energydemand+50-60%)
–  Levelingoftheplayingfield(USout-of-wackbyfactorof4)
10
EnergyUsevs.GDP,bothpercapita(1980-2010)
450
Canada
PrimaryEnergypercapita(millionBTU)
400
350
USA
300
Australia
250
NewZealand
Russia
200
France
Germany
150
SouthKorea
Japan
100
China
50
Malaysia
Mexico
Brazil
Greece
India
0
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
GDPpercapita(PPP,$2005)
11
Ireland
Source:EIA
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Globalcontextsto2050
•  Demographic
–  GrowingpopulaNon(7.3Bto~9.7B)
–  “Older”DevelopedWorld,“Younger”DevelopingWorld
–  UrbanizaNon(50Mperyear;50%to70%urban)
•  Economic
–  DevelopmentofMOW
–  Growingdemandforresources(energydemand+50-60%)
–  Levelingoftheplayingfield(USout-of-wackbyfactorof4)
•  Energy
–  Fossilfuelsaremostcommon(80%),mostreliable,cheapestformofenergy
–  Theywon’tbe“runningout”foralongNme
12
Global context – energy demand is rising
*
Non-OECD
Non-OECD
Non-OECD
OECD
OECD
OECD
13
Long-termoilsupplycurve
14
Globalcontextsto2050
•  Demographic
–  GrowingpopulaNon(7.3Bto~9.7B)
–  “Older”DevelopedWorld,“Younger”DevelopingWorld
–  UrbanizaNon(50Mperyear;50%to70%urban)
•  Economic
–  DevelopmentofMOW
–  Growingdemandforresources(energydemand+50-60%)
–  Levelingoftheplayingfield(USout-of-wackbyfactorof4)
•  Energy
–  Fossilfuelsaremostcommon(80%),mostreliable,cheapestformofenergy
–  Theywon’tbe“runningout”foralongNme
•  Environmental
–  Growingenvironmentalimpacts(“Theonlyhumanswhodon’tpollute…”)
–  Pushtoreducehumaninfluencesonclimate(GHGemissions)
•  Technologyprogress
–  informaNcs,roboNcs,materials/manufacturing,biological
•  GreaterregulaNon,globalizaNonofpeople,goods,ideas,capital
15
Energy
US2014
~18t
•  Thereisplenty,butGHGs
–  Thechallengesaresevere
•  Itwillchangeslowly
•  InaNOfossil-fuelworld(NOcoal,oil,gas)
–  Efficiencyintransport,staNonary
–  Decarbonizeelectricity
•  wind/solar(intermieency,cost)
•  Nuclear(waste,scale)
•  CCS(cost,integrity)
– 
– 
– 
– 
– 
– 
– 
Decarbonizetransport(electrifyLDVsvehicles,biofuels/hydrogenforHDVs)
Whattodoaboutspaceandprocessheat?
Nuclearwastestorage,seismichazardassessment,U/Thresources
WeathercorrelaNonsforwind/solar
Geothermal(deep,resource,drilling,…)
Newresourcebusinesses(rareearths,butearthabundantrequirement)
Severecutbackingeosciencesresearch,demandforstudents
16
17
ProjecNngenergyisperilous,
buttherearesomegivens
•  Azero-emissionsworlddoesn’tviolatephysicallaws
–  ButitlikelyviolateseconomicandpoliNcallaws
•  Cost,scale,andcarbonconstraintarethemost
important(butnottheonly)consideraNons
–  e.g.,lowtoleranceforelectricityoutages
•  Energysystemwillchangeslowly
–  Largecapitalinvestments,longlifeNmes,commodiNes
producedbyprivatesector,interoperability
•  It’salocaldiscussion
–  Resourceendowment,exisNnginfrastructure,climate,
mixofacNviNes
WhatworksinNYCwon’tworkinNiger
18
EvoluNonoftheUSenergysupply
U.S.
U.S.Primary
PrimaryEnergy
EnergyConsumption
ConsumptionEstimates
Estimatesby
bySource,
Source,
1850-2010
1850-2010
100%
100
USWindCapacity2015–69GW;1999-2.5GW
9090%
USWindGenera7on–2014-~5%
8080%
USSolarCapacity2014–22.7GW
7070%
Quadrillion Btu
USSolarGenera7on2015–0.6%
6060%
5050%
4040%
3030%
2020%
1010%
1850 1860
1860 1870
1870 1880
1880 1890
1890 1900
1900 1910
1910 1920
1920 1930
1930 1940
1940 1950
1950 1960
1960 1970
1970 1980
1980 1990
1990 2000
2000 2010
2010
1850
Wood
Wood
Coal
Coal
Petroleum
Petroleum
Natural Gas
Hydroelectric Power
Nuclear
Nuclear Electric
Electric Power
Power
0 0%
Other
OtherRenewable
RenewableEnergy
Energy
Source:U.S.EnergyInformaNonAdministraNonAnnualEnergyReview,Tables1.3,10.1,andE1 19
AnnualNYCenergyconsumpNon
PJ=1015J(USannualis100,000PJ)
•  Transport(total=158PJ)
–  LDVsare125PJ(gasoline,ethanol)
–  HDVsare23PJ(21.6diesel,1.4CNGinbuses/trucks/rail)
•  30%ofbusesin2013weredieselhybrids
–  Subway+commuterrail=9.9PJelectricity
•  Sta7onaryElectricity=181PJ
–  5.8GWavg,13GWpeak
–  Street+trafficlights=0.8PJ
•  Hea7ng(oil,gas,steamforwater/space)=304PJ
20
DecarbonizaNonstrategy
•  CosteffecNveefficiencyisgoodforallseasons,and
becomesincreasinglyfeasiblewithtechnology
improvements,but…
–  Lackofcapitalfunds;principal-agentdisconnects;rebound
•  Decarbonizetransport
–  Light-dutyvehicles(LDVs)
–  Heavy-dutyvehicles(HDVs)
•  Decarbonizeelectricity(baseload,peak)
•  Decarbonizeheat(space,water,industry)
21
Decarbonizingtransport
•  VehicleefficiencythroughmassreducNon,autonomy,connecNvity
•  Fuelchoicesareelectricity,cellulosicbiofuels,hydrogen
•  LDVswilllikelygoelectric
–  GradualtransiNonfromICEtoHEVtoPHEVtoBEV
•  stockof240M;14Msold/yr;120kPHEV+BEVsoldin2014
–  Baeeriesare(marginally)goodenoughnow;CharginginfrastructureparNallyin
place
–  SmallincreaseingeneraNonrequired,mostlyatnight
•  ICE:30mpg=¼mile/MJ;BEV:4miles/kWh;allNYCLDVsrequire31PJofelectricity,or
+16%
22
ProjectedReduc7onsintheFuelConsump7onof
LargeCarsandSmallTrucksthroughTechnology
Source: National Research Council with data adapted by a National Petroleum Council study
committee; joint study by the Environmental Protection Agency and National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration (EPA/NHTSA).
23
Es7matedSupplyImpactsofMee7ng50%ofToday’s
LDVDemandbyVariousAlterna7veFuels
24
Rela7onofFuelPricestoCrudeOilPrice,
2000–2011
DatafromEIAandNebraskaEnergyOffice
25
Decarbonizingtransport
•  VehicleefficiencythroughmassreducNon,autonomy,connecNvity
•  Vehiclechoicesareelectricity,cellulosicbiofuels,hydrogen
•  LDVswilllikelygoelectric
–  GradualtransiNonfromICEtoHEVtoPHEVtoBEV
•  stockof240M;14Msold/yr;120kPHEV+BEVsoldin2014
–  Baeeriesare(marginally)goodenoughnow;CharginginfrastructureparNallyin
place
–  SmallincreaseingeneraNonrequired,mostlyatnight
•  ICE:30mpg=¼mile/MJ;BEV:4miles/kWh;allNYCLDVsrequire31PJofelectricity,or
+16%
•  HDVscouldgobiodiesel,electricity,hydrogen
–  Fleetnaturemakesfuelinginfrastructurelessofanissue
26
Biomasscanprovidesignificantcarbon
Fuel
AnnualUSCarbon(MtC)
700
Fossil
↑1000
Agriculture
Biomass
600
500
400
300
200
15%ofTransportaNonFuels
100
0
27
Decarbonizingtransport
•  VehicleefficiencythroughmassreducNon,autonomy,connecNvity
•  Fuelchoicesareelectricity,cellulosicbiofuels,hydrogen
•  LDVswilllikelygoelectric
–  GradualtransiNonfromICEtoHEVtoPHEVtoBEV
•  stockof240M;14Msold/yr;120kPHEV+BEVsoldin2014
–  Baeeriesare(marginally)goodenoughnow;CharginginfrastructureparNallyin
place
–  SmallincreaseingeneraNonrequired,mostlyatnight
•  ICE:30mpg=¼mile/MJ;BEV:4miles/kWh;allNYCLDVsrequire31PJofelectricity,or+16%
•  HDVscouldgobiodiesel,electricity,hydrogen
–  Fleetnaturemakesfuelinginfrastructurelessofanissue
•  SomeconsequencesofdoingthisnaNonallyorglobally
– 
– 
– 
– 
– 
Lowoildemandcreateslowerprices,extendingdecarbonizaNontransiNon
Highervehiclecosts,lowerfuelcosts
Stabilityoftransportfuelcosts
Isthereenoughbiomassforbiodieselwithgrowingglobaltransport?
OilreserveassetsbecomeessenNallyworthless
28
Decarbonizingelectricity
•  It’smuchmorethancostofelectricityandemissions
–  Intermieency,dispatchability,land,water,localenvironment,…
29
Powerdemandishighlyvariableand
there’snopracNcalstorage
30
U.S. Department of Energy
3
31
AddiNonstoU.S.ElectricityGeneraNonCapacity,1985–2035
(totalUScapacity~1.1TW,so100-yearturnoverNme)
Source:EIA
32
Decarbonizingelectricity
•  It’smuchmorethancostofelectricityandemissions
–  Intermieency,dispatchability,land,water,localenvironment,…
•  MethanehalvesCO2relaNvetocoal,butlikelyclimateneutral
33
CheapgasischangingtheUSenergysystem
•  On9/6/16,gaswas$2.88
•  Gas<$8beatsfission
•  Gas<~$3beatsrenewables
(withoutbackupcosts)
•  CheapgasintheUShasbrought
backmanufacturing,converted
gasimportstoexports
•  Bankruptciesincoal(Peabody,
Arch,…),renewables(Abengoa,
SunEdison,…)
A“gasworld”haslowerCO2,butCH4
leaksandlossofaerosolcooling
resultinessenNallynoreducNonin
radiaNveforcing
34
Decarbonizingelectricity
•  It’smuchmorethancostofelectricityandemissions
–  Intermieency,dispatchability,land,water,localenvironment,…
•  MethanehalvesCO2relaNvetocoal,butlikelyclimateneutral
•  Baseload
–  Nuclear
•  Uresource;Repositoryintegrity;Seismichazard;Wateravailability?Acceptance?SMRs?
–  CarbonCaptureandStoragefueledbycoal/gas
•  Costs?Reservoirintegrity(<0.3%/yrleakrateforhundredsofyears)
–  Biomass
•  Ifweuseitforpower,can’tuseifforfuel;BioCCSnetcarbonnegaNve
•  Renewables
–  HydroessenNallytappedoutnaNonally
–  Solar/windhavelimitedpotenNal(20%-30%ofgeneraNon)
• 
• 
• 
• 
Weatherstats(variability,covariability)
Landuse;localenvironmentalimpacts
NeedmassivestorageandextrageneraNonintheabsenceoffossilbackup
Transmissioninfrastructure;frequencyregulaNon
–  Geothermal
•  DeepresourcecharacterizaNon/access;cost?
–  Storageakeyenablingtechnology
35
Wind/solarelectricityiscurrentlymorecostly
US
Solarcostsdroppingrapidly,but
deployments7lldrivenby
•  FinancialincenNves
•  Taxcredits
•  Feed-intariffs
•  Loanguarantees
•  Por|oliostandards
Fossilbackuprequirementhas
unintendedGHGconsequences
36
AddiNonaltransmissiontomakewindviable
Source: http://www.npr.org/series/103281114/power-hungryreinventing-the-u-s-electric-grid?ps=rs
37
Solartakesland
•  LongIslandSolarFarm
–  200acres(81ha)for5
MWaverage(37MW
peak)
•  IndianPoint2GW
averagepower
–  Equivalentto32000ha,
ora5.5milecircle
–  Ecological,logisNcal
impacts?
–  Need3oftheseforNYC
baseload
38
Decarbonizingheat
•  ResidenNal
–  Solarforhotwater,spaceheaNngbybuildingdesign
–  Carbon-freeelectricitytoheatisinefficient
•  NYCelectricitygoesto+1.5Xto15GWaverage!
–  Heatpumpsareinappropriateincoldclimate,urban
areas
–  Carbon-freedistrictheaNnginurbanareas
•  SMRs,biomass
•  Industrial
–  Biomass?
–  ????
39
U.S.EnergyUseinResiden7alandCommercial
Buildingsin2008
Source:DOEBuildings Energy Data Book
40
BuildingEnergyEfficiency
Source Energy Use Intensity, Office Buildings, New York City
Source Energy Use Intensity, Multi-Family Buildings, New York City
N = 1,150
Mean = 219.5
N = 7,505
Mean = 137.9
s.d. = 46.8
400
200
40
Frequency
600
60
s.d. = 101.7
0
0
20
Frequency
Source: Local Law 84 Energy Disclosure Data, Kontokosta 2013
800
80
Source: Local Law 84 Disclosure Data, Kontokosta 2013
0
200
400
600
Weather Normalized Source EUI (kBtu/sq.ft./yr.)
800
0
100
200
300
Weather Normalized Source EUI (kBtu/sq.ft./yr.)
400
Kontokosta2013
41
Andintherestoftheworld…
Energyiscentraltonearlyeverymajorchallenge,
andopportunitytheworldfacestoday.Beitjobs,
security,climatechange,foodproducNonor
increasingincomes,accesstosustainableenergy
forallisessenNalforstrengtheningeconomies,
protecNngecosystemsandachievingequity.
Worldwide,about1.2billionpeople
havenoaccesstoelectricityandthe
developmentbenefitsitbrings,and1billionmore
haveaccessonlytounreliableelectricity
networks.Nearly3billionpeoplerelyon
tradiNonalbiomass(suchaswoodand
charcoal)forcookingandheaNng.
-UNFounda*on
42
Informalpoll
Withwhichofthefollowing
doyouagree?
•  CO2levelswillexceed450
ppmduringthe21stcentury
•  CO2levelswillexceed550
ppmduringthe21stcentury
•  CO2levelswillexceed650
ppmduringthe21stcentury
MaunaLoaCO2inAugust2016=402.25ppm
•  CO2levelswillexceed750
ppmduringthe21stcentury
43
• 
Koonin’s“notsofast”strategy
Clarifythepolicydiscussionandthesciencethatunderpinsit
–  SustainandbolsterclimateobservaNons
–  AscienNfic“redteam”exercisetoaccuratelyportrayuncertainNes
–  Reframethediscussionto“values”;don’tuseallegedcertaintyasaclub
44
45
• 
• 
• 
Koonin’s“notsofast”strategy
Clarifythepolicydiscussionandthesciencethatunderpinsit
–  SustainandbolsterclimateobservaNons
–  Reframethediscussionto“values”;don’tuseallegedcertaintyasaclub
–  AscienNfic“redteam”exercisetoaccuratelyportrayuncertainNes
Pursue“easy”emissionsreduc7ons
–  Cost-effecNveefficiencies;Leveragecrediblesidebenefits(local
environment,energysecurity)
–  RD&Dforlow-cost,emissions-freetechnologies
•  Fission,solar,storage/gridmanagement,biofuels,CCS,fusion,…
Reduceemissionsfurtherif/when
–  thesciencebecomesmorecertainor
–  avaluesconsensusemergesor
–  zero-emissionstechnologiesbecomemorefeasible
46
47
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
Koonin’s“notsofast”strategy
Clarifythepolicydiscussionandthesciencethatunderpinsit
–  SustainandbolsterclimateobservaNons
–  Reframethediscussionto“values”;don’tuseallegedcertaintyasaclub
–  AscienNfic“redteam”exercisetoaccuratelyportrayuncertainNes
Pursue“easy”emissionsreduc7ons
–  Cost-effecNveefficiencies;Leveragecrediblesidebenefits(local
environment,energysecurity)
–  RD&Dforlow-cost,emissions-freetechnologies
•  Fission,solar,storage/gridmanagement,biofuels,CCS,fusion,…
Reduceemissionsfurtherif/when
–  thesciencebecomemorecertainor
–  avaluesconsensusemergesor
–  zero-emissionstechnologiesbecomemorefeasible
Pursueadapta7onvigorously
–  ItiseffecNve(wemanagetomuddlethrough)
–  ItisagnosNc(indifferenttonaturalvshuman-caused)
–  ItisproporNonal(adaptmoreifthechangeisgreater)
–  Itislocal(poliNcallypalatable;doesnotrequireglobalconsensus)
–  Itisautonomous(itwillhappen/ishappeningonitsown)
–  ModesofadaptaNon(“wedges”)?WhatareweadapNngto?
Developgeoengineeringasalast-resortop7on
– 
Researchprogram?Feasibilitytests?Governance?
48
49
Boeomlinethoughts
•  Itisunlikelythatwecangettoazero-emission
world(by2100)
–  HumaninfluencesontheclimatewillconNnueto
growthroughthiscentury
–  IfhumaninfluencesarealreadydeterioraNngthe
climate,we’reinforatleastanothercentury
•  R&DessenNaltoprepareforaconNngentfuture
•  Societywilladapttoaclimatechangingunder
humanandnaturalinfluences
•  Itwouldbegoodtoknowifwecanhave
geoengineeringopNons“ontheshelf”
50
COMMENTS/QUESTIONS??
51
52
53
54
PoliNcalclimate-speak
TheAgreementsetsagoalofkeepingwarmingwellbelow2degreesCelsiusandforthefirst
Nmeagreestopursueeffortstolimittheincreaseintemperaturesto1.5degreesCelsius.It
also acknowledges that in order to meet that target, countries should aim to peak
greenhousegasemissionsassoonaspossible.–WhiteHouseFactSheetonParisAgreement
Implicitassump7ons
1.  There is an agreed-upon baseline [± <0.5C] against which to judge
warming
2.  GHGemissionsarethesolecontrolknobforwarming
3.  WeknowhowtheclimatewillrespondtoGHGstowithin25%
4.  Warmingof2C(1.5C)willbenetdetrimental
55
Asaresult,wesee
•  “Certainty”statementsbypoliNcalfigures
andscienceadministrators
−  Kerry:Thescienceofclimatechangeisleapingoutatuslikeascenefroma3Dmovie.It’swarning
us;it’scompellingustoact.Andlettherebenodoubtinanybody’smindthatthescienceis
absolutelycertain.It’ssomethingthatweunderstandwithabsoluteassuranceoftheveracityof
thatscience.
−  McNu>:The7mefordebatehasended.
•  MostextremeIPCCscenariomorphedby
mediainto“businessasusual”toexaggerate
impacts
•  AlarmistpredicNonsthatnevermaterialize
andaresoonforgoeen
•  MinimizaNonofuncertainNes
− TheIPCCAR5SummaryforPolicyMakersis
discordantwiththescienNficreport
56
Whyaredteam?
"Ontheonehand,asscienNstsweareethicallyboundto
the scienNfic method, in effect promising to tell the
truth, the whole truth, and nothing but - which means
thatwemustincludeallthedoubts,thecaveats,theifs,
ands, and buts. On the other hand, we are not just
scienNsts but human beings as well. And like most
peoplewe'dliketoseetheworldabeeerplace,whichin
this context translates into our working to reduce the
riskofpoten7allydisastrousclima7cchange.Todothat
we need to get some broad-based support, to capture
thepublic'simagina7on.That,ofcourse,entailsgemng
loadsofmediacoverage.Sowehavetoofferupscary
scenarios, make simplified, drama7c statements, and
makeliolemen7onofanydoubtswemighthave.This
'double ethical bind' we frequently find ourselves in
cannot be solved by any formula. Each of us has to
decidewhattherightbalanceisbetweenbeingeffecNve
andbeinghonest.Ihopethatmeansbeingboth."
–S.Schneider,Stanford,1996
58
Whyaredteam?(II)
The central problem of climate science is to ask
what you do and say when your data are, by almost
any standard, inadequate? If I spend three years
analyzing my data, and the only defensible
inference is that “the data are inadequate to answer
the question,” how do you publish? How do you get
your grant renewed? A common answer is to
distort the calculation of the uncertainty, or
ignore it all together, and proclaim an exciting
story that the New York Times will pick up…How
many such stories have been withdrawn years later
when enough adequate data became available?”
- C. Wunsch, MIT
Lack of transparency is a huge political
advantage. It was really, really critical to getting the
[ACA] passed. [At least one key provision was a]
very clever basic exploitation of the lack of
economic understanding of the American voter.
- J. Gruber. MIT
59
Globalsurfacetemperatureanomaly
Stasis
Warming
Warming
Cooling
IPCC AR5: It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed
increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was
caused by [humans]. The best estimate of the human induced
contribution is similar to the observed warming over this period.
60
Modelsfailtoproducehistorical
variaNon
Forcing ~ 2.0 W/m2
Forcing ~ 0.4 W/m2
Figure TS.9, pg TS-93
61
ManhaeanBaeerysea-levelrecord
62
Noincreaseintropicalcyclone
acNvity
63
Comments?/Questions?
Small satellites for earth observations:
http://fas.org/irp/agency/dod/jason/smallsats-full.pdf
High Performance Computing for climate models:
http://fas.org/irp/agency/dod/jason/chammp.pdf
Atmospheric Radiation Measurements:
http://fas.org/irp/agency/dod/jason/arm.pdf
Earthshine observations of the global albedo:
http://www.iac.es/proyecto/earthshine/media/publications/Palle_etal_GRL_2005.pdf
Science biofuels editorial:
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/311/5760/435
GHG Treaty Monitoring study:
http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/1033495/
Energy Innovation:
Accelerating the Pace of Energy Change, with A.M. Gopstein, Issues in Science and Technology, Winter 2011
DOE Quadrennial Technology Review:
http://cms.doe.gov/sites/prod/files/ReportOnTheFirstQTR.pdf
American Physical Society Climate Statement Review:
http://www.aps.org/policy/statements/climate/index.cfm
WSJ OpEd on climate science uncertainties:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/climate-science-is-not-settled-1411143565
NYT OpEd on achieving a zero-emissions world:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/04/opinion/the-tough-realities-of-the-paris-climate-talks.html?ref=opinion
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