ESPON Internal Seminar 2012
“Territorial Development Opportunities in Europe and its
Neighbourhood Fostering Global Competitiveness”
Parallel Workshop Session: Workshop 1.2
Demographic Change
Stimulus map
Population in EU and its neighborhood in 2030
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The European population is
increasing slowly over time.
A trend of East-West polarisation of
the pattern of demographic
development is visible, mostly due to
negative migration balance in
Eastern Europe.
Migration plays a key role for
population growth in Europe.
Europe is getting older. In 2030, the
median age in some regions will
exceed 50 years.
Towards 2030, population growth will
be significantly higher in countries
neighbouring Europe to the South
which may sustain a particular
migratory pressure on Europe.
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Workshop 1.2 – key questions for ESPON projects
1.
What are the main territorial trends or observations from your project - for Europe,
its regions and cities - in relation to “population development, migration flows,
labour market and social inclusion”?
Please select maximum 2 maps from your project and include maximum 5 bullet points that could illustrate
and synthesize this question.
Maximum use 3-4 slides for showing ESPON evidence on this question.
2. How do developments in Europe´s neighborhood influence the territorial
development in Europe and vice-versa (according to your mind / your ESPON
findings)?
Please include maximum 3 bullet points that could illustrate and synthesize this question, as much as
possible based on your project results and on the case studies developed.
Please use 1 slide to answer to this question.
3. What opportunities and challenges exists for Europe and its neighbourhood for
increasing competitiveness through further cooperation and integration?
(according to your mind / your ESPON findings)?
Please include maximum 3 bullet points that could illustrate and synthesize this question.
Please use 1 slide to answer to this question.
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Trends in Europe
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Analysis of population variation
2000-2010 better described in a
functional neighborhood of 1 hour
by car (eliminate MAUP effect).
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Population decline in eastern
Germany, Danubian countries, Baltic
countries, northern Europe …
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Population increase but in area that
are strongly affected by economic
crisis (Spain, Ireland, Italy, …)
=> What are the respective role of
migratory and natural balances?
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Trends in Europe
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Trends in Europe
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Combination of natural and migratory
decline (blue) is characteristic from
eastern Europe
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Combination of natural and migratory
increase (red) is characteristic from
western Europe
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Increase related to migration (dark
orange) is vulnerable to economic crisis.
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Increase related to natural increase
(light orange) is more resilient to crisis.
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Europe´s neighborhood influence
• The global trends of population
variation in EU + neighborhood
(1990-2010) is a crucial driver for
the future (2010-2030).
• Western part is characterized by
equivalent amount of population
growth on both shore of
Mediterranean sea.
• Eastern part is characterized by
very strong disparities of
population decline (north) and
population growth (south).
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Europe´s neighborhood influence
3D- view provides a
better appreciation of
the
intensity
of
demographic contrasts.
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Opportunities for Europe
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Potential of population in a gaussian
neighborhood of 80 km reveals strong
peaks inside and outside EU.
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Opportunities for Europe
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Potential of population in a gaussian
neighborhood of 80 km reveals strong
peaks inside and outside EU.
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But what is the influence of external
population on EU potential (and vice
versa) ?
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Opportunities for Europe
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Potential of population in a gaussian
neighborhood of 50-150 km reveals
strong peaks inside and outside EU.
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But what is the influence of external
population on EU potential (and vice
versa) ?
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Potential of population in a gaussian
neighborhood of 200-500 km reveals
the existence of a wide area of potential
contact between EU and neighb.
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Opportunities for Europe
•
Potential of population in a gaussian
neighborhood of 50-150 km reveals
strong peaks inside and outside EU.
•
But what is the influence of external
population on EU potential (and vice
versa) ?
•
Potential of population in a gaussian
neighborhood of 200-500 km reveals
the existence of a wide area of potential
contact between EU and neighb.
Which strategy can be developed by EU
for the development of this potential ?
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