January 11, 2013
Performance Update
26 February 2016
Franklin India Fund Strategy Update:
2015 Performance Drivers and 2016 Outlook
PERSPECTIVE FROM FRANKLIN LOCAL ASSET MANAGEMENT
Sukumar Rajah
Managing Director,
Chief Investment Officer
Asian Equity
Franklin Local Asset Management
Despite short-term volatility, we maintain our positive view on
India’s macroeconomic and corporate prospects in the long
run, and remain confident in our portfolio’s positioning to
benefit from economic recovery and generate sustainable
returns in the long term.
Market Review
Summary
After a strong first quarter, Indian equities started correcting in
March 2015 due to domestic and external economic headwinds.
Domestically, muted corporate earnings, a disappointing
monsoon season for India’s large agricultural industry and
gaining momentum for opposition parties in state elections in
the fourth quarter were obstacles to equity performance,
despite the positive effect of several rate cuts by the central
bank, the decline in commodity prices and an improvement in
macroeconomic data. Externally, concerns about global
commodity prices, global economic growth (particularly as it
relates to China) and the timing of the US Federal Reserve’s
(Fed’s) interest-rate hike also weighed on Indian markets.
Despite strong volatility witnessed in 2015 and
underperformance compared with developed markets, Indian
equities proved more resilient than other emerging markets,
which suffered double-digit losses and higher volatility levels.
Economy
As India is a net commodity importer, the low global commodity
prices that grabbed headlines in 2015 helped reduce the
country’s fiscal deficit and lower wholesale inflation, which gave
a boost to the Indian economy. Gross domestic product (GDP)
growth expanded by more than 7%, turning India into the
fastest-growing emerging market in 2015. However, growth has
been uneven, and largely driven by public investment and a
pickup in urban consumption, while private sector capital
expenditure has remained sluggish.
Fitch forecasts India’s GDP growth will potentially accelerate to
7.5% in the current fiscal year (which runs from 1 April 2015 to
31 March 2016) and 8% in fiscal year 2016–2017, supported by
increased government capital spending and gradual
implementation of a broad-based reform agenda. In its latest
outlook, the World Bank called India one of the “notable
exceptions in an otherwise gloomy outlook for developing
countries.” The organization also predicted that the country will
be the fastest-growing economy in the world over the next three
years, outpacing China.
Policy and Government
The policy of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) turned more
accommodative and supportive of growth in 2015, with four rate
cuts allowed by the sharp decline in CPI inflation to 5.6% (in
December 2015) from the ~11% levels seen in November 2013.
The RBI has also displayed willingness to accelerate the
transmission of rate cuts to banks and provide greater policy
certainty to help revive private investment.
Meanwhile, despite delays in a few high-profile reforms (such as
the Goods and Services Tax and land reforms), India’s
government has focused on improving the business
environment, as reflected by measures it has undertaken,
including boosting foreign direct investment, ending diesel
subsidies and promoting financial inclusion. The government is
also continuing to push its agenda of infrastructure spending,
having spent 64.3% of the total budgeted expenditure for fiscal
year 2016 in the first eight months of the fiscal year. The
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downstream effect of government spending on infrastructure
may kick in and translate into demand for labor, construction
equipment and cement.
Ease of doing business and competitiveness have already
improved, as reflected by the World Bank’s Doing Business
2016 ranking, with India moving up by 12 places, and by the
World Economic Forum’s recently published global
competitiveness analysis, in which India jumped 16 ranks, to
55th out of 140 countries in 2015.
Fund Performance
While Indian equities had disappointing performance in absolute
terms in 2015, after a strong 2014, Franklin India Fund1 fared
better than the MSCI India Index, which represented one of the
better-performing emerging markets in 2015. However, the
market correction was a challenge for Franklin India Fund’s
performance in the second half of the year, along with certain
stock-specific events and an uneven economic recovery that
undermined the portfolio’s positioning toward a domestic
cyclical recovery that did not materialize as initially expected.
Performance was also hurt by one-off adverse developments
affecting a few stocks in the automobiles and health care
industries. However, we see such events as temporary
setbacks, and remain confident in the long-term fundamentals
of these stocks.
The deterioration of performance relative to some peers was
also partially driven by divergences in market capitalization
allocation, with strong outperformance by funds with a large
exposure to smaller companies; small- and mid-cap stocks
outperformed large caps by over 10% in local currency terms in
2015 (as represented by Nifty Midcap vs. Nifty, respectively).
Competitor funds with 2015 returns in the top quartile had an
average allocation to small- and mid-cap securities approaching
40%. In comparison, Franklin India Fund had about 14% of its
portfolio invested in this segment. However, we believe the
higher valuations of mid-cap stocks were driven by large
domestic flows into mid-cap funds and expectations of higher
earnings growth. While the illiquid nature of small- and mid-cap
stocks helps to mark up prices during a bullish market, it could
lead to substantial mark-downs during more challenging
markets. We expect there will be price readjustments for certain
overvalued stocks in the small- and mid-cap segment.
The Fund was helped by stock selection, which was the main
contributor to the Fund’s 2015 relative performance overall.
Most sectors added to relative performance. However, our
positioning in financials, our largest sector overweighting, was
the main detractor from relative performance, and weighed on
the Fund’s overall results. 2015 also marked the Fund’s 10-year
anniversary. Over this decade, our process has demonstrated
its ability to generate consistent outperformance relative to its
benchmark and peers over longer time horizons.
Chart 1: A Decade of Consistent Outperformance
Strong Performance against Benchmark and Peer Group
3-Year Monthly Rolling Average Annual Total Returns
31 October 2005–31 December 2015
Monthly Rolling 3-Year Returns of Franklin India Fund
35%
Franklin India Fund
Outperformed:
30%
25%
20%
MSCI India Index
15%
98%
10%
of the time
5%
0%
Peer Group
-5%
97%
-10%
-15%
-15%
of the time
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Monthly Rolling 3-Year Returns of Benchmark and Peer Group
Benchmark
Morningstar Peer Group
Franklin India Fund A(acc) USD – Net of Fees, Benchmark is MSCI India Index and Peer Group is Morningstar EAA OE India Equity.
Source: © 2016 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or
distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use
of this information. Past performance is not an indicator or a guaranteed of future performance.
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Franklin India Fund Strategy Update
2
Chart 2: Alpha Driven by Stock Selection
A Diverse Portfolio Built through Active Stock Selection
Franklin India Fund 10-Year Total Effect (%)
31 December 2009–31 December 2015
12%
76%
10%
8%
of Total Alpha Generated
over 10 Years Came from
Selection Effect
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
12/09
6/10
12/10
6/11
12/11
6/12
12/12
Selection Effect
6/13
12/13
6/14
12/14
6/15
12/15
Allocation Effect
Source: FactSet. Data is calculated as a percentage of total including cash and cash equivalents, but excluding fixed income. Past performance is not an indicator or a
guarantee of future performance.
Top Contributors
The industrials sector in the MSCI India Index ended 2015 in
negative territory; however, the sector contributed to the Fund’s
performance in both absolute and relative terms. Stock
selection proved positive for relative results, in particular within
the electrical equipment and construction and engineering
industries.
While materials was the worst-performing sector within the
benchmark, our stock selection within the sector contributed to
relative Fund performance. Most notably, an underweight
allocation to the metals and mining industry helped, as the
industry suffered from falling commodity prices and a slowdown
in global demand. Stock selection within the construction
materials industry also proved favorable.
In the consumer discretionary sector, passenger vehicle sales
growth in 2015 boosted several of the Fund’s holdings in the
automobiles and auto components industries. In particular, an
overweight position in Eicher Motors helped results, although
we exited the position in the third quarter, as we felt valuations
had become stretched relative to anticipated long-term growth
rates.
Elsewhere, while the financials sector was an overall detractor
from relative performance, stock selection among banks
contributed to relative returns. In fact, HDFC Bank and
IndusInd Bank were the top two individual Fund contributors in
2015. We continue to favor private sector banks, as we believe
they tend to be better capitalized and managed than stateowned banks, and are well-positioned to benefit from the likely
reacceleration of growth in the Indian economy.
Top Detractors
Stock selection within the financials sector was the largest
detractor from the Fund’s 2015 relative performance; however,
this was largely driven by an underweight position in mortgage
finance company Housing Development Finance
Corporation (HDFC), which has the largest weighting in the
benchmark within financials and outperformed the rest of the
sector in 2015. However, according to our estimates, about half
of HDFC’s interest income comes from non-retail loan books, a
segment where competitive intensity is increasing, in our view.
Accordingly, we continue to favor private sector banks, which
we believe will grow faster and gain market share from HDFC,
given their lower funding costs.
An underweight allocation to the consumer staples sector, and
to consumer goods company Hindustan Unilever in particular,
detracted from relative performance. However, we have
gradually increased our exposure to the company, as we expect
Hindustan Unilever to benefit from growing demand for personal
care products, a category in which competition is limited, and
also to benefit from falling commodity prices and the positive
effect they may have on discretionary spending. However, we
maintain an underweighted allocation to the sector, due to
valuations and the availability of what we believe to be more
attractive opportunities in other segments of the market.
To a lesser extent, our underweight allocation to the information
technology sector also detracted from relative fund returns. The
underperformance in the sector was largely driven by an
underweighted position in Infosys, which reported solid results
and outperformed the market. In general, information
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Franklin India Fund Strategy Update
3
technology was among the best-performing sectors in the
market, as rupee weakness was a key tailwind for earnings in
the sector. However, we remain underweighted in the sector for
the reasons described in the positioning section below.
Apart from these sector detractors, the portfolio’s absolute
returns were limited by several individual pharmaceutical
industry holdings, in particular Sun Pharma, Dr. Reddy’s
Laboratories and Cadila Healthcare, which received warning
letters from the US Food and Drug Administration regarding
some of their manufacturing facilities in India. As a result, they
are unable to obtain any new approvals for drugs manufactured
in such facilities until the issues are resolved. This, in turn, had
an impact on earnings in the short term; however, pharma
stocks have corrected significantly, and the impact on earnings
of such non-recurring events is more than factored in, in our
view. We remain positive on these names and maintain our
positioning, as such companies have a strong portfolio, with a
mix of branded and generic drugs with strong growth prospects
in the medium to long term.
2016 Strategy and Positioning
The Fund’s positioning, which remained broadly unchanged in
2015, reflects our preference for companies with strong longterm fundamentals that are potentially poised to benefit from a
domestic cyclical recovery and a pickup in domestic demand,
rather than global cyclicals that derive a major part of their
revenues or profitability from overseas and are more exposed to
external headwinds.
Chart 3: Consensus Earnings Growth Expectations for Franklin India
Fund’s Holdings Exceed Those of Benchmark
As at 31 December 2015
25%
20%
We also remain underweight in housing finance companies, and
Housing Development Finance Corporation in particular (by
far the largest weighting in financials in the benchmark), as we
expect banks to outperform instead, due to an anticipated
improvement in asset quality in the banking sector. In addition,
we are concerned about the slowdown in real estate due to high
prices and increased tax compliance.
Private sector banks had a rough start of the year 2016, in
particular those with large corporate exposure, as they reported
worsening trends in asset quality, due to the Reserve Bank of
India’s push for faster uniform recognition of non-performing
assets (NPAs), particularly in stressed sectors such as oil and
gas or metals and mining. Overall, we believe banking stock
fundamentals remain strong and that the stocks are currently
trading at a significant discount to fair value.
Information Technology
Our next-largest sector exposure is to information technology,
although we maintain an underweight allocation relative to the
benchmark, due to the intensifying competitive landscape and
slowing growth that is pressuring revenues and margins across
the industry, as well as headwinds from a slowdown in global
demand. We are, however, overweight HCL Technologies, as
we believe the company’s healthy deal pipeline, along with its
focus on investments, is likely to bode well for the stock in the
longer term.
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
Financials
Our largest sector exposure remains to financials (in absolute
terms and relative to the index). We are particularly positive on
private sector retail-oriented banks, as they still have only 20%–
25% market share in India, and we expect market share gains
to accelerate due to the scarcity of capital in state-owned banks.
We consider private sector banks to have stronger liability
franchises, a higher retail loan mix and, more importantly,
competent and stable management teams. Additionally, banking
products penetration is still quite low in India, and we believe
that retail-oriented private banks have excellent opportunities
over the next decade. Furthermore, private sector banks, in
general, have enjoyed higher levels of profitability and have
tended to maintain better-quality balance sheets. Among private
sector banks, we highlight HDFC Bank, which we regard as the
gold standard of consistency and profitability, with dominance in
retail assets and fees, as well as the requisite infrastructure to
remain competitive in the digital era. Conversely, we have
limited exposure to state-owned banks, primarily due to asset
quality concerns.
FY15 (Actual)
FY16
(Consensus
Projections)
Franklin India Fund
Q1FY16
(Actual)
MSCI India Index
Q2FY16
(Actual)
FY17
(Consensus
Projections)
S&P BSE Sensex Index
Source: Morgan Stanley Research, RIMES, MSCI, IBES Estimates, company data from
each underlying company included in the universe. There is no assurance that any
estimate or projection will be realized.
Consumer Discretionary and Health Care
At the end of 2015, the Fund was about evenly weighted in both
consumer discretionary and health care and overweight relative
to the benchmark’s exposure to these sectors. We believe the
consumer discretionary sector is likely to benefit from a cyclical
recovery, led by urban as well as rural demand. Within the
sector, we like select auto manufacturers and auto components
businesses, as well as consumer durables companies.
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In the health care sector, we maintain an overweight position in
pharmaceutical companies, favoring those with strong pipelines
of branded and generic drugs, as well as companies that
demonstrate medium- to long-term growth prospects. In
particular, we are positive on Sun Pharmaceuticals, which is a
long-term play on a shift to specialty pharmaceuticals in the
United States, with a focus on new generic opportunities in the
Unites States and increasing penetration in emerging markets.
In addition, the company currently has a rapidly growing
domestic business and should benefit from the acquisition of
Ranbaxy in March 2015, which has a strong penetration in
emerging markets.
Industrials
We believe a number of select stocks in the industrials sector
may be well positioned for any recovery or improvement in the
economic growth rate, and we see some interesting potential
opportunities in this sector. We are, therefore, positioned
broadly across engineering, electrical equipment, industrial
machinery and industrial conglomerates.
Positioning in Other Sectors
The Fund maintains smaller exposures to the materials, energy,
consumer staples and telecommunication services sectors.
While rising capital expenditure is likely to drive demand for
cement, paints, construction materials and other raw materials,
we reduced our exposure to the materials sector, as we felt
some valuations had become stretched, although we remain
overweight relative to the index. Within the sector, we also
maintain an underweighting in metals names, which are likely to
continue to suffer from low commodity prices and weak global
demand, in our view.
We remain largely underweight in the energy sector. We
currently are not finding many opportunities in the energy
upstream segment (exploration and production). We favor
downstream companies, such as Bharat Petroleum, which we
believe are likely to benefit from recent fuel price deregulation.
We also increased our investment in Coal India in anticipation
of a hike in coal prices for the power sector.
We maintain an underweight positioning toward the broad
consumer staples sector due to high valuations, especially
relative to other pockets of the market where we are finding
more attractive opportunities. That said, we have increased our
position in Hindustan Unilever, as we believe the company is
well positioned to benefit from a growth in demand for personal
care products.
We also maintain underweight exposure to the
telecommunication services sector. Within the sector, the Fund
has an overweight position in Bharti Airtel, as we believe the
stock could perform well over the medium and long term on
expectations of higher revenue and market share driven by the
faster rollout of a 3G/LTE network, deleveraging of its Africa
operations and increasing data usage with more localized
online content.
2016 Macroeconomic, Corporate and
Policy Outlook
Despite the uneven economic recovery in India, due to both
internal and external headwinds, we believe that with
accelerating consumption and public investment, combined with
benign inflation, a reform-oriented government and robust
external balances, India could be among the fastest-growing
economies in the world in 2016.
In 2016, we anticipate urban consumption to accelerate due to
wage revisions for government employees, lower inflation due
to weak commodity prices and 4%–5% real wage growth in the
private sector. Rural consumption, which was subdued in 2015
due to a second successive disappointing monsoon season and
weak agricultural commodity prices, is expected to stabilize and
improve marginally.
We also expect government-driven capex to gain further
momentum, with more projects moving to the implementation
stage. The current outlook for lower oil prices and a more
targeted subsidy mechanism could provide the government with
extra funds that might accelerate investments further. However,
we think that new private capex may continue to be a drag on
the economy, as capacity utilization remains low and
infrastructure projects require new sponsors.
On the corporate front, while there have been interest-rate cuts
by the Reserve Bank of India (cumulatively 125 basis points in
2015), the effect of these rate cuts has yet to be seen. With the
evolution of lending rate calculation, the economy and,
subsequently, corporations are likely to benefit from lower
interest rates. Corporate earnings downgrades could continue
for a few more quarters; however, given the base effect and
indications of economic recovery, the pace of these
downgrades could be relatively lower. We believe the base
effect could lead to better year-on-year corporate performance
in the second half of 2016 and, therefore, a pickup in earnings
growth may be visible starting in fiscal year 2016–2017. The
corporate profit cycle is close to all-time lows, and valuations
appear reasonable at the current stage. We expect Indian
companies’ earnings growth rate to accelerate into the midteens for fiscal full-year 2017 (which starts in April 2016),
compared with mid-single-digits in full-year 2016. We believe
this will be due, in part, to wholesale price index (WPI) inflation
that should be less of a drag on corporate revenues, and a
pickup in consumption (primarily urban, but to a lesser extent
rural) that is likely to lead to accelerated earnings growth for
consumer discretionary and consumer staples companies, as
well as to sustain momentum for retail-oriented private sector
banks, although fundamentals for companies in these segments
are not as strong as for other companies in the broader market
from a medium- to long-term perspective.
Also, we do not expect the small- and mid-cap segment to
sustain its outperformance, given current valuations. Even
though market valuations are near historical long-term
averages, mid-cap stocks are trading at a premium to large
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Chart 4: Indian Valuations Now Around Long-Term Average and
Well Below Peak of Previous Rally
caps, leading to an overvaluation of some mid-cap stocks, in
our view. We believe disproportionate flows into mid-cap funds
and expectations of higher earnings growth are the primary
reasons for the higher mid-cap valuations. We expect price
readjustments for certain overvalued stocks, and therefore we
reiterate the importance of stock selection based on growth,
profitability and sustainability.
Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E x)
31 December 2005–31 December 2015
25
Peak from Previous Rally 23.0x
20
On the policy front, the state election calendar this year is
benign and should not be a significant distraction for the
government. We believe this could allow the government to
place more focus on legislative and administrative action on key
policies, such as the further expansion of the direct benefit
transfer (DBT) plan, which is an anti-poverty subsidy program,
and progress on power distribution and public sector bank
reforms.
15
10
5
12/05
Conclusion
5/07
10/08
3/10
9/11
2/13
S&P BSE Sensex Index P/E Ratio (x)
7/14
12/15
10-Year Average (x)
x = multiple
Source: FactSet. Past performance is not an indicator or a guarantee of
future performance.
Chart 5: India Mid-Cap Valuations Relative to Large-Caps Are at
Levels Unseen in Almost a Decade, Reducing the Potential for
Further Outperformance
Mid-Caps P/E Premium/Discount to Large-Caps P/E
31 December 2005–31 December 2015
Active management at Franklin Templeton will continue to play
an important role in ensuring investors receive potentially
attractive returns from Indian equities, not only through
exploiting opportunities in companies with strong fundamentals
and reasonable valuations but also by avoiding stocks of
companies that may drag on performance. While further
volatility cannot be ruled out, we believe that India’s structural
growth story will continue to play out, as its long-term drivers
remain intact. Accordingly, we feel Indian equities continue to
offer attractive long-term investment opportunities.
In the near term, market risks lie mainly in China’s weakness
and its impact on the global macro environment, a delay in
corporate profitability recovery that may weigh on earnings
expectations, a delay in the pace of reforms and government
inaction and a delay in progress with the recognition and
resolution of non-performing assets for state-owned banks.
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13 12/14 12/15
Overall, while we may not be able to avoid market volatility in
the near term, we are maintaining our positioning toward a
cyclical recovery in the medium term, and remain confident that
Franklin India Fund remains well-positioned to capture the longterm growth potential in India. Given the pickup in volatility and
relatively higher valuations compared with last year, we would
reiterate that stock picking using in-depth company analysis
remains critical as we navigate the current environment.
Nifty MidCap Index P/E Premium/Discount to Nifty Index P/E
Source: Bloomberg, based on consensus estimates. Past performance is not an
indicator or a guarantee of future performance.
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IMPORTANT LEGAL INFORMATION
Franklin India Fund is a sub-fund of the Luxembourg-domiciled
SICAV Franklin Templeton Investment Funds. This document is
intended to be of general interest only and does not constitute
legal or tax advice nor is it an offer for shares or invitation to
apply for shares of the Luxembourg-domiciled SICAV Franklin
Templeton Investment Funds (“FTIF”). Nothing in this document
should be construed as investment advice. Opinions expressed
are the author’s at publication date and they are subject to
change without prior notice.
Subscriptions to shares of the FTIF can only be made on the
basis of the current prospectus of the FTIF and, where
available, the relevant Key Investor Information Document,
accompanied by the latest available audited annual report and
the latest semi-annual report if published thereafter.
The value of shares in the FTIF and income received from it can
go down as well as up, and investors may not get back the full
amount invested. Past performance is not an indicator or a
guarantee of future performance. Currency fluctuations may
affect the value of overseas investments. When investing in a
fund denominated in a foreign currency, your performance may
also be affected by currency fluctuations.
An investment in the FTIF entails risks which are described in
the FTIF’s prospectus and, where available, the relevant Key
Investor Information Document. In emerging markets, the risks
can be greater than in developed markets. Investments in
derivative instruments entail specific risks that may increase the
risk profile of the FTIF and are more fully described in the
FTIF’s prospectus and, where available, the relevant Key
Investor Information Document.
No shares of the FTIF may be directly or indirectly offered or
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prospective investors should confirm availability with their local
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Any research and analysis contained in this document has been
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particular industries, sectors or companies are for general
information and are not necessarily indicative of a FTIF’s
holding at any one time. Given the rapidly changing market
environment, we disclaim responsibility for updating this
document.
References to indices are made for comparative purposes only
and are provided to represent the investment environment
existing during the time periods shown. Indexes are
unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. They do
not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges.
Please consult your financial advisor before deciding to invest.
A copy of the latest prospectus, and if available for this product
the Key Investor Information Document, the annual report and
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1. Franklin India Fund is a sub-fund of the Luxembourg-domiciled SICAV Franklin Templeton Investment Funds.
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