Türkiye’de iş yaratma ve
girişim dinamikleri
İzak Atiyas, Ozan Bakış ve Yusuf
Kenan Orhan
1
Kullanılan mikro veriler
• Yıllık Sanayi ve Hizmet İstatistikleri
– 20 veya daha fazla çalışanı olan tüm işyerleri
– 20’den az çalışanı olan işyerleri arasından temsili bir
örneklem
– Çalışan sayısı, katma değer, satışlar, faaliyet
– 2005-2011
– 2009’da Faaliyet kodlama sistemi NACE Rev 1.1’den
NACE Rev. 2.2’ye dönüştü
– Sermaye stoku yok. Amortisman verileri kullanılarak
yaratıldı.
– Yerel birimler hakkında satış ve istihdam payı bilgileri
2
• 2010 yılında girişim sayısında yüksek artış
– Vergi affı ile ilişkili olabilir
3
• Çerçeve
– Türkiye’de tarım hariç (aşağı yukarı) tüm
girişimler
– Yaş, istihdam, sektör bilgileri
4
Bazı temel göstergeler
# of workers % of firms
% of sales
% of emp.
% of value
added
average
labor
productivity average age % of firms
% of sales
% of emp.
% of value
added
average
labor
productivity average age
s1-19
98.13
40.02
56.93
32.24
9485
8.41
97.45
29.41
47.57
21.30
7468
10.10
s20-49
1.30
14.54
10.91
11.13
17092
10.03
1.68
14.61
12.06
11.90
16464
11.53
s50-99
0.29
6.65
5.41
6.15
19041
12.15
0.44
8.51
6.95
7.88
18883
12.77
s100-249
0.19
9.14
7.78
9.42
20265
13.78
0.29
11.67
10.05
12.55
20804
14.23
s250-500
0.06
7.07
5.49
8.40
25603
15.56
0.08
7.99
6.59
10.30
26034
16.76
s500+
0.04
22.58
13.49
32.66
40658
20.79
0.06
27.82
16.78
36.07
35806
20.11
16769
8.46
16664
10.16
total
5
Küçük girişimlerin istihdam payı
azalıyor
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
emp_sh 2005
20.00
emp_sh 2010
10.00
s5
00
+
50
0
s2
50
-
24
9
s1
00
-
9
s5
09
9
s2
04
s1
-1
9
0.00
6
Yerel birimlere göre dağılım
size
1-19
20-49
50-99
100-249
250-499
500+
total
# estab.
2468949
32652
7146
4773
1375
808
2,515,703
2005
2010
% estab. % of sales % of emp. # estab.
% estab. % of sales % of emp.
98.14
46.78
60.21 2420603
97.37
37.44
52.14
1.30
15.30
11.20
44881
1.81
17.89
13.62
0.28
6.92
5.56
10809
0.43
8.94
7.30
0.19
11.74
8.17
6835
0.27
12.35
10.17
0.05
6.58
5.35
1837
0.07
9.06
6.22
0.03
12.68
9.52
1015
0.04
14.32
10.55
2,485,980
7
İstihdamın yaş ve büyüklüğe göre
dağılımı (2010)
12
0
1
2
10
3
4
5
6
8
7
8
9
10-14
6
15-19
20-29
40+
4
20-29
30-39
40+
10-14
8
2
6
4
2
0
s1-19 s20-49
s50-99 s100s250s500+
249
500
0
8
Giriş çıkış oranları
Overall
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
mean1
mean2
er
28.0
55.3
19.1
8.4
9.9
9.2
71.0
28.7
11.7
xr
8.7
13.3
14.5
11.3
14.0
18.9
14.4
13.6
14.7
9
Devam eden, giren ve çıkan girişimlerin özellikleri
(2006-2009 ortalaması)
Survivors
mean
Entrants
sd
mean
Exitors
sd
mean
sd
employee
120.07
2.69
51.7
3.6
49.7
2.8
LP
20926
160
15294
343
15748
312
lnLP
9.56
0.01
9.3
0.0
9.3
0.0
lnSales
15.30
0.01
14.3
0.0
14.4
0.0
lnVA
13.67
0.01
12.8
0.0
12.8
0.0
ln_KBC_pw
2.43
0.02
2.8
0.1
2.4
0.0
kbc_int
9.06
0.12
8.2
0.3
7.2
0.3
profit
9.11
0.09
8.6
0.4
8.2
0.3
age
13.70
0.07
6.9
0.2
10.2
0.2
Source: Authors' calculations using AISS, 20+ firms. employee: number of total employees in the
firm, LP: labor productiviy defined as value added per employee, lnLP: log(LP+1), lnSales:
log(sales +1), lnVA: log(value added +1), ln_KBC_pw : log(knowledge based capital investment per
worker +1), kbc_int: the ratio of knowledge based capital investment to total investment multiplied
by 100, profit: the ratio of value added minus wage compensation to sales multiplied by 100, age:
current year minus birth year.
10
Devam eden, giren ve çıkan girişimlerin
pazar payları (2006-2009 ortalaması)
Survivors Entrants
sal_sh
95.9
4.1
va_sh
96.5
3.5
emp_sh
94.1
5.9
Exitors
5.6
4.3
7.6
11
Yeni girişim yaşama oranları (2006
yılında giren girişimler)
Active firms as % of total entrants
in 2006
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
12
Relative productivity and size
Yen, giren girişimlerin İV ve büyüklükleri
2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0
1
2
Years after entry
Productivity
3
4
Size
Notes: For each year after entry, the figure shows the ratio of the (unweighted) mean productivity
(size) of the surviving firms that entered the data set in 2006, to the mean productivity (size) of the
cohort in 2006. Productivity is defined as value added divided by the number of employees. Size is
the number of employees.
13
Verimlilik dönüşüm tabloları
Panel A: 4 Year Transitions
Productivity at entry - 2006
Exit
Productivity 4 years after entry - 2010
q1
q2
q3
q4
q5
q1
q2
60.21
53.16
18.58
14.41
8.71
17.35
5.15
8.89
4.11
4.17
3.25
2.02
q3
51.41
7.18
13.44
15.4
9.26
3.31
q4
47.33
5.09
7.11
13.98
17.41
9.07
q5
42.52
3.87
2.45
5.64
14.11
31.41
Panel B: 4 Year Transitions
Productivity 4 years later - 2010
Productivity - 2006
Exit
q1
q2
q3
q4
q5
q1
q2
54.04
45.65
14.63
10.48
10.9
15.04
8.46
15.54
7.23
9.02
4.74
4.27
q3
39.64
5.74
10.69
17.64
17.11
9.19
q4
37.21
4.05
5.21
12.02
22.03
19.49
q5
30.17
3.45
2.5
5.32
13.82
44.74
14
Büyüklük dönüşüm tabloları
Panel A: 4 Year Transitions
Size 4 years after entry - 2010
20-49
Exit
Size at entry - 2006
50-99
100-249
250-499
500+
20-49
52.6
34.26
9.27
3.17
0.56
0.14
50-99
43.33
17.82
16.41
16.28
4.36
1.79
100-249
39.32
7.12
7.43
29.41
11.76
4.95
250-499
36.84
1.32
2.63
11.84
31.58
15.79
500+
25.71
0
2.86
2.86
5.71
62.86
Panel B: 4 Year Transitions
Size 4 years later - 2010
Exit
Size - 2006
20-49
50-99
100-249
250-499
500+
20-49
50-99
47.43
32.69
37.88
17.34
10.72
27.79
3.45
18.93
0.4
2.5
0.13
0.76
100-249
26.3
5.34
11.77
42.21
11.35
3.04
250-499
22.55
2.67
2.88
16.21
37.46
18.23
500+
16.01
1.23
1.23
3.36
10.86
67.3
15
Yaşa göre göreli istihdam (2009)
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0-4
5-9
10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39
Manufacturing
40+
All economy
Notes: Authors’ calculations based on the 2009 cross-section. Size is measured as total number of
employees. The figure displays 4-digit industry-weighted (weights are equal to the employment
share of industry in total employment – or total manufacturing) average employment as a ratio of
employment in 2006.
16
Yaşa göre göreli istihdam ABD, Hindistan ve
Meksika
Yaşa göre göreli İV (2009)
Notes: Authors’ calculations based on the 2009 cross-section. Productivity is measured as value added
divided by the number of employees. The figure displays 4-digit industry-weighted (weights are equal to
the employment share of industry in total employment – or total manufacturing employment) mean of
productivity as a ratio of the industry-weighted productivity of the base age group of 0-4.
18
İş yaratma 2006
19
İş yaratma (2006 ve 2010)
Net JC - 2010
Net JC - 2006
WRT
MAN
CON
FIRE
CSPS
TSC
MIN
PU
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
Source: Authors' calculations using AISS, 20+ firms. Job creation for 2006 is defined over years 2005 and 2006. For
a firm appearing in both years net job creation is the difference between employment levels. For entering firms we
assume that all employment is net job creation. Similarly, for exiting firms we assume that all employment is
destructed (net job creation is negative). The same applies to 2010. MIN: Mining and quarrying, MAN:
Manufacturing, PU: Electricity, gas and water supply, CON: Construction, WRT: Wholesale and retail trade , hotels
and restaurants, TSC: Transportation, communication and storage, FIRE: Financial intermediation; real estate,
rental and business services, CSPS: Education; health; community services, social and personal activities .
20
İş yaratma 2010
21
Girişim büyüme regresyonları
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
-0.02
20-49
50-99
100-249
150-499
-0.04
size(average)
size (average) + age
Notes: 20+ firms over the period 2006-2010. The figure displays the regression coefficients of net job
creation, measured by the Davis-Haltiwanger-Shuh growth rate, on firm size (dashed line) and size
and age (solid line) dummies, controlling for industry (single digit NACE Rev. 1.1) and year. Size in
year t is measured as average size between year t and t-1. The regressions include a constant term.
The omitted categories are the largest size (500+) and oldest age (40+) group and the year the year
2006.
22
Girişim büyüme regresyonları
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14
age
Notes: 20+ firms over the period 2006-2010. The figure displays regression
coefficients of net job creation, measured by the Davis-Haltiwanger-Shuh growth
rate, on firm age dummies, controlling for industry (single digit NACE Rev. 1.1) and
year. The regression includes a constant term. The omitted categories are the
oldest age (40+) group and the year the year 2006. Adding size dummies has very
little effect on the estimated coefficients of age dummies.
23
Girişim istihdam büyüme oranı
regresyonları
Productivity
1
0.007***
(0.001)
Profitability
2
3
4
5
0.007***
0.010***
0.013***
(0.001)
(0.001)
(0.001)
0.00061*** 0.00054*** 0.00051*** 0.00038***
(0.00004)
(0.00005)
(0.00005)
(0.00006)
size dummies
age dummies
year dummies
activity dummies
region dummies
no
no
yes
1 digit
no
no
no
yes
1 digit
no
yes
yes
yes
1 digit
no
yes
yes
yes
1 digit
yes
yes
yes
yes
2digit
yes
No. of observations
R-squared
176665
0.027
178191
0.028
176006
0.056
174402
0.0578
143178
0.0644
Notes: The dependent variable is job growth rate, as defined by Davis-Haltiwanger and Shuh. All
regressions cover the period 2006-2010, except for that reported in the last column, which covers
the period 2006-2009. Productivity is defined as value added divided by the number of employees.
Profitability is measured as value added minus wage payments divided by total sales. Both are
measured as averages over the period for which growth is measured, except for new entrants
24
(exitors), in which case contemporaneous (last period) values are used. Size in time t is measured
as average of size between t and t-1. Standard errors are in parentheses.
Yaratılan iş sayısı: Ceylan vs
ceylan olmayan girişimler
Source: Authors' calculations using AISS, 20+ firms. Gazelles are firms increasing their
employment more than two fold in a time span of 3 years. Non-gazelles are then
continuing firms between t and t+3 that do not double their employment and new entries.
25
Yaratılan ortalama iş sayısı: Ceylan vs.
ceylan olmayan girişimler
26
Ceylan vs. ceylan olmayan girişimlerin
dönem başı İV
Source: Authors' calculations using AISS, 20+ firms. First, we compute aggregate labor productivity
of gazelles and non-gazelles at the beginning of the period. For instance, we compute labor
productivity using 2005 values for 2005-2008 period. Then, we take their ratio to get the above
figure. Note that some of non-gazelles entering into the relative labor productivity computation, will
27
not survive due to exit.
Ceylanların sektörel dağılımı (20052010)
sector
CON
CPGS
FIRE
MAN
MIN
PU
TSC
WRT
gazelle share
8.76
5.38
5.90
4.77
9.71
2.69
3.88
5.36
Source: Authors' calculations using AISS, 20+ firms. Gazelles are firms increasing their employment
two fold or more in a time span of 3 years. Non-gazelles are then continuing firms between t and
t+3 that do not double their employment and new entries. The values in the table refer to the
arithmetic average of 2005-2008, 2006-2009 and 2007-2010
28
Ceylan vs. ceylan olmayan girişimlerin
ortalama yaş ve büyüklüğü
period
Ave. empl.
Ave. age
2005-2008
non-gazelle
26.68
13.16
2005-2008
gazelle
93.58
10.83
2006-2009
non-gazelle
130.41
13.54
2006-2009
gazelle
77.63
10.86
2007-2010
non-gazelle
139.96
14.33
2007-2010
gazelle
100.55
12.21
29
Teşekkürler