Workshop of the EAPS Health, Morbidity and Mortality Working Group
“Changing patterns of mortality and morbidity:
age-, time-, cause- and cohort-perspectives”
Prague, 16.–18. September 2015
How Long Will Japan Stand as the World Best
Performer in Life Expectancy?
Jacques Vallin and France Meslé
* Institut national d’études démographiques (INED), Paris, France
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
45
50
55
Life expectancy in years
Australia
Iceland
Japan
The Netherlands
New Zealand non-Maori
Norway
Sweden
Switzerland
1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
Oeppen Jim and Vaupel James W., 2002. – Broken limits to life expectancy, Science, vol. 296, n° 10, p. 1029-1031.
Life expectancy at birth
CVR
85
Pasteur
Since 1960
y = 0.2269x - 369.42
2
R = 0.9877
Jenner
75
1886-1960
y = 0.324x - 558.77
R2 = 0.9845
65
1790-1885
55
y = 0.1172x - 169.52
R2 = 0.7751
Before 1790
45
y = 0.005x + 29.956
R2 = 0.0014
35
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
VALLIN Jacques, MESLÉ France, 2009. – The Segmented Trend Line of Highest Life Expectancies, Population and
Development Review, 35(1), p. 159-187.
A complementary objection to
Oeppen-Vaupel conclusions
• If Japan slows down : a new best performer
will take the lead
• Is there any candidate to do it?
• Will it be able to sustain the same pace for
long?
Candidates to catch up Japan
• The « second best » since Japan took the lead
• Some former leaders
• New emergent countries
Second best since Japan took the lead
Post 1980 Second Best since 1970
Former leaders
New comers
When 2013 Japanese
level could be reached?
2025 Australia, Estonia, Italy
2024 Taiwan
2023 Malta, Portugal
2
2022 Switzerland
2021 Slovenia
2020 France,
Singapore
2019 Spain
2017 Korea,
Luxembourg
2027 Canada, Finland
2028 England and Wales
2029 Netherlands,
Norway, New Zealand
2030 Ireland
2031 Denmark
2032 Germany, Iceland
2033 Romania, Sweden
2034 Belgium
2037 Czech Rep., Poland
2041 Latvia
2042 USA
2043 Croatia,
Russia
2046 Belarus,
Hungaria,
Slovakia
1
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
When Japan could be caught up?
After 2100
2110
Iceland, Germany,
Slovakia
Italy Sweden, Belgium USA
Bulgaria
Ukraine
Hungari
a
Croatia
Norway
New Zealand
Australia
Belarus
Poland
Austria CzechLatvia
2070
Canada
Finland
Ireland
Netherlands
Denmark Russia
Switzerland
2050
England & W
France
Portugal Taiwan Romania
Malta
Estonia
Spain
2030
Singapore Slovenia
Luxembour
Korea
g
2090
2010
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
Year when reaching 2013 Japanese level
South Korea, increasing life expectancy at old age
Contributions to the increase of life expectancy at age 60, since 2000
Ten groups of causes, including senility
Nine groups of causes, after redistributing senility
Trends in standardized
mortality rates by cause of
death, at ages 60+
After
redistributing
senility
Conclusion
• Japan slowed down since 2009
• Other countries will catch it up very probably
• Hong Kong already done, but it is a special
case (just a large city)
• Very likely, South Korea will do it very soon
• Is it enough to sustain the pace of progress
observed since the 1970s? The question has no
clear answer yet.
Thank you!
Age and cause specific contributions to life expectancy increase 1985-98
Ten groups of causes, including senility
Nine groups of causes, after redistribution of senility
Age and cause specific contributions to life expectancy increase 1998-13
Ten groups of causes, including senility
Nine groups of causes, after redistribution of senility
Age and cause specific contributions to life expectancy increase 1998-13
Ten groups of causes, including senility
Nine groups of causes, after redistribution of senility
Trends in
standardized
mortality rates
by cause of
death
a) Before
redistributing
senility
Trends in standardized
mortality rates by cause of
death
b) After
redistributing
senility