The Risky Nature of the MLB Draft
In 1965 Rick Monday made MLB history. Before he even got his first hit, his career was
already significant. Rick Monday was the first overall pick in the first official MLB Rule 4 FirstYear Player Draft.
Although Monday never made it to the Baseball Hall of Fame, he did have a long and
successful career. The Athletics drafted a player who they would later develop into an All
Star. There was no guarantee though Monday would become a great player. Every player
drafted has a varying level of risk behind him.
In baseball, the risk is greater than most sports. A first round pick becoming an All Star
is rare. A first round selection comes with the risk of the selected player not even making it to
the Major Leagues. This is one of the biggest differences that separate the MLB Amateur Draft
from other professional North American sport drafts.
In both the NBA and NFL drafts, nearly all first round selections make their respective
professional teams within the next season. The MLB is quite different. From 1996 to 2000, only
63.5% of players drafted in the first round ever made it to the MLB. Even with all of the
scouting and analytics baseball has developed over the years, the odds are still only a little better
than predicting a coin flip.
By separating these selections into High School and College players, the small odds of
fully becoming a MLB player become even clearer. Between 1996 and 2000, 77.1% of college
players drafted made it to the MLB. On the other hand only 51.9% of high school players
drafted ever reached the Major Leagues.
Using the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) metric calculated by baseballreference.com, within the first six years (the average player reaches free agency between six and
seven years after making a major league roster) of a player’s MLB debut, a college player gives
an average value of 4.6 WAR. High school players only averaged accruing 2.9 WAR. From the
same sample of players drafted between 1996 and 2000, five of the top six players of total WAR
over the course of their first six seasons were drafted out of college.
Despite the lower odds, there are plenty of reasons that a player could be drafted out of
high school. One is the player is younger and that comes with more potential. Another team
may also select a player before they go to college, so a team must decide whether or not the risk
of the unknown is worth it when scouting a high school player.
In sports it is widely assumed that earlier selections in any draft are more valuable. It
simply gives the team the ability to select better players before the other teams can. With the
valuable first overall selection, it is even more important that a team makes the correct selection.
So while the college players statistically have greater odds to make it to the MLB and provide
more value, ironically the only first overall pick to ever make it to the MLB Hall of Fame was
selected out of high school: Ken Griffey Jr.
How much value is there selecting there earlier in the first round? Over the sample, the
first three picks in the draft always made it to the MLB (a trend that has not nearly always held
true). Throughout the sample there is a trend that players selected earlier have a better
probability to make it to the MLB and provide more value. Although the model build to predict
value by selection has some anomalies and noise (likely due to the sample size), there is
statistical significance that backs the theory that earlier selections are more valuable.
All years in the draft do not have equally talented players. Only one year in history
contained a consensus number one overall selection that made it to the Hall of Fame. Some
years it is very possible that no franchise player will be drafted. The wave of incoming talent
can fluctuate greatly from year to year.
The average WAR ranged from 2.42 (2000) to 4.89 (1998) in this sample. The draft of
2000 also had the lowest percentage of players who made the MLB at 50%, while 1998 had 73%
make the MLB. When teams evaluate which players to select, knowing how greatly the talent
ranges from year to year is just another factor to consider.
With all of the factors to consider, it makes sense that MLB teams have a lot of difficult
decisions to make when selecting a player. Some teams have the strategy to select a player with
the greatest potential. Other teams select players who they believe is the safest bet to make an
impact. The correlation between average WAR and the percentage that made it to the Major
Leagues (aggregated by year) was very low at 0.399. This just reinforces even more the fact
teams must decide how much risk they are willing to take, and even more it shows how much
risk and unknowns there are with every selection.
Every selection has risk, but even more important every selection has potential. All
teams know that every player will not be a Hall of Famer like Ken Griffey Jr. or maybe not even
an All Star like Rick Monday. World Series winning teams are never completely made of All
Stars or Hall of Famers though. At the end of the draft the teams can only hope they can select
as many players as possible who are able to make an impact on the team. Every selection has
risks and unknowns. The best teams simply balance those and win.
Average War Per Pick
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
Year Average WAR
Percentage who made MLB
1996
2.89
0.7
1997
3.8
0.71
1998
4.89
0.73
1999
4.36
0.53
2000
2.42
0.5
Average WAR Value Over First Six MLB Seasons
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
4.621428571
2.85308642
Average of WAR
College
High School
Average WAR Over First Six MLB Seasons
Average of WAR
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
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Pick in First Round