Syst. Biol. 51(3):450–477, 2002 DOI: 10.1080/10635150290069896 Robustness of Ancestral State Estimates: Evolution of Life History Strategy in Ichneumonoid Parasitoids R OBERT B ELS HAW1 AND D ONALD L. J. Q UICKE2 1 Department of Biological Sciences, Imperial College at Silwood Park, Ascot, Berkshire SL5 7PY, UK; E-mail: [email protected] 2 Department of Biological Sciences and Centre for Population Biology, Imperial College at Silwood Park, and Department of Entomology, The Natural History Museum, London SW7 5BD, UK; E-mail: [email protected] Abstract.— We test hypotheses for the evolution of a life history trait among a group of parasitoid wasps (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonoidea), namely, the transition among koinobiont parasitoids (parasitoids whose hosts continue development after oviposition) between attacking exposed hosts and attacking hosts that are concealed within plant tissue. Using a range of phylogeny estimates based on 28S rDNA sequences, we use maximum parsimony (MP) and maximum likelihood (ML) methods to estimate the ancestral life history traits for the main clades in which both traits occur (using the programs MacClade and Discrete, respectively). We also assess the robustness of these estimates; for MP, we use step matrices in PAUP¤ to nd the minimum weight necessary to reverse estimates or make them ambiguous, and for ML, we measure the differences in likelihood after xing the ancestral nodes at the alternative states. We also measure the robustness of the MP ancestral state estimate against uncertainties in the phylogeny estimate, manipulating the most-parsimonious tree in MacClade to nd the shortest suboptimal tree in which the ancestral state estimate is reversed or made ambiguous. Using these methods, we nd strong evidence supporting two transitions among koinobiont Ichneumonoidea: (1) to attacking exposed hosts in a clade consisting of the Helconinae and related subfamilies, and (2) the reverse transition in a clade consisting of the Euphorinae and related subfamilies. In exploring different methods of analyzing variable-length DNA sequences, we found that direct optimizatio n with POY gave some clearly erroneous results that had a profound effect on the overall phylogeny estimate. We also discuss relationships within the superfamily and expand the Mesostoinae to include all the gall-associated braconids that form the sister group of the Aphidiinae. Estimates of ancestral states are subject to two sources of error: uncertainties in estimating the ancestral state given a phylogeny estimate, and uncertainties in the phylogeny estimate itself. Considering the rst source of uncertainty, for a given estimate of phylogeny, we can use maximum parsimony (MP) or maximum likelihood (ML) to estimate any ancestral character state. Cunningham et al. (1998) compare these two methods and show that simple MP estimates may be misleading if rates of change are high or transition rates are asymmetric. Particularly valuable for molecular phylogenetics is the ability of ML-based ancestral state estimates to take into account branch lengths (changes are more likely to occur on long branches if branch length is proportional to time). The robustness of a ML ancestral state estimate can be assessed by comparing the likelihoods of models of trait change in which the trait is xed at the alternative states (Pagel, 1999a). As currently implemented in available software, estimating ancestral states by using MP is a simple optimization and assumes that, for a binary character, transitions in either direction are equally probable (but see Maddison (1995) and Salisbury and Kim (2001) for discussions of the probability of MP-based ancestral state estimations). We can measure the robustness of a MP estimate to this assumption by using asymmetric step matrices (Ree and Donoghue, 1998; Omland, 1999). By applying increasing weights to one of the two transformations, we can nd the minimum additional weight necessary to change the observed result. Several authors (Sperling and Feeny, 1996; Omland, 1997) have used this method, generally because they suspect that gains and losses of complex traits are not equally probable. The importance of the second source of uncertainty for comparative methods has been recognized for some time (Harvey and Pagel, 1991:203). We can gain a crude measure of the robustness of an ancestral state estimate by repeating it on estimates of phylogeny that use different methods and parameters. However, for a more rigorous examination, we need to test whether trees supporting the alternative ancestral state estimate are 450 2002 BELSHAW AND QUICKE—ROBUSTNESS OF ANCESTRAL S TATE ESTIMATES signicantly worse. This general approach is used for testing a wide range of evolutionary hypotheses that use phylogeny estimates (Huelsenbeck and Rannala, 1997). For example, to assess the support for different numbers of independent domestications of fungi by fungus-growing ants, Mueller et al. (1998) compared optimal trees with trees found by searches that were constrained to recover certain fungus cultivars as monophyletic. Applied to ancestral state estimates, this approach is used by Dumbacher and Fleischer (2001) to assess the support for a proposed convergence in bird plumage. Other studies compare the results obtained by using optimal trees with those from suboptimal trees, for example, Donoghue and Ackerly (1996) examining the evolution of branching architecture in Acer plants and Hibbett and Donoghue (2001) studying correlations between life history traits of homobasidiomycete fungi. Although most studies, including the one we present here, pursue this only within a MP framework, the approach is applicable to other methods, for example, Bayesian inference (Huelsenbeck et al., 2000). In this paper we use the above methods to analyze the evolution of a particular life history trait among a group of parasitoid wasps. To summarize, our procedure involves (1) estimating phylogeny, (2) estimating ancestral states by MP and ML, (3) measuring the robustness of these ancestral states estimates by using step matrices (for MP) and differences in likelihood (for ML), and (4) measuring the robustness of the ancestral state estimates to uncertainties in the phylogeny (MP only). Insect parasitoids oviposit onto, or into, their host, which typically is the immature stage of another insect. The parasitoid larva feeds on the host and eventually kills it (Eggleton and Belshaw, 1992). Perhaps the most striking feature of life history evolution among parasitoids has been that from idiobiosis to koinobiosis (Askew and Shaw, 1986), the distinction being that koinobionts allow the host to continue development after oviposition, whereas idiobionts do not. Commonly, koinobiont species oviposit in immature hosts, which the parasitoid larva kills only after the host has nished growing. In contrast, the ovipositing idiobiont female usually permanently paralyzes or kills the host before laying an egg or eggs on it. Many other life history traits appear to 451 be correlated with this apparently fundamental dichotomy (Sheehan and Hawkins, 1991; Belshaw, 1994; Quicke, 1997; Mayhew and Blackburn, 1999). In this paper we examine one group of parasitoids, the Ichneumonoidea (Hymenoptera), to nd the direction of the evolutionary transition between koinobiont parasitoids whose hosts feed concealed in plant tissue, and koinobiont parasitoids whose hosts feed exposed on plants. Evidence is strong that the common ancestor of the Ichneumonoidea was an idiobiont parasitoid of concealed hosts. On the basis of morphological characters, this is estimated to be the ancestral biology of the sister group of the Ichneumonoidea, the Aculeata (Hanson and Gauld, 1995), and it is the biology of most taxa phylogenetically close to the (Ichneumonoidea C Aculeata) clade (Ronquist, 1999). Dowton and Austin (2001), using molecular data, also estimate this to be the ancestral biology of the Ichneumonoidea (although they do not recover the Aculeata as the sister group). Within the Ichneumonoidea transitions to koinobiosis apparently have occurred multiple times (Whiteld, 1998; Belshaw et al., 1998). Commonly, ichneumonoid koinobiont species oviposit in young hosts that feed exposed on the surface of plants and kill them only after the host has nished its larval growth and moved to its pupation site (Shaw, 1983; Gauld, 1988). Many ichneumonoid koinobionts, however, attack hosts that are concealed in plant tissue. Quicke et al. (1999) suggested that this latter trait is more likely to have evolved through an intermediate stage of being a koinobiont parasitoid of exposed hosts, rather than directly from the concealed idiobiont ancestor. They argued that, despite the selective advantages proposed for koinobiosis in parasitoids attacking exposed hosts (for example, in killing the host only after it has moved to a more protected site for pupation), such selective advantages are difcult to attribute to koinobiosis when the host is already concealed. Hence, among koinobionts, attacking concealed hosts is more likely to be a reversal to the ancestral habit. Conversely, several authors have suggested that—at least in certain ichneumonoid clades—koinobiosis in parasitoids attacking concealed hosts arose directly from the ancestral idiobiont biology without an intermediate stage of attacking exposed hosts 452 S YSTEMATIC BIOLOGY (Shaw, 1983; Gauld, 1988; Wharton, 1993). In the present study we attempt to resolve this debate by using 28S rDNA sequence data, having previously shown that many morphological characters are related to the life history trait investigated here (Quicke and Belshaw, 1999). M ETHODS The Taxa Categorization of and Their Life History Our previous molecular phylogenetic studies of this superfamily showed basal relationships to be poorly resolved (Belshaw et al., 1998, 2000; Quicke et al., 2000). Therefore, rather than attempting to determine all ancestral states in the superfamily, we focus on the ancestral states of well-supported koinobiont clades that display both life history traits: species attacking concealed hosts and species attacking exposed hosts. Five of these koinobiont clades are within the noncyclostome Braconidae, and the sixth is within the ophioniform clade of the Ichneumonidae (the two families together form the Ichneumonoidea). With one exception, the noncyclostome braconids and ophioniform ichneumonids are also exclusively endoparasitoid (eggs are laid within the hosts, and the larva develops internally—at least for the rst part of its life). The exception is the tryphonine ichneumonids, which are a clade of ectoparasitoid koinobionts. The other ichneumonoid taxa are in clades dominated by the ancestral idiobiont biology and are not examined here, namely, the cyclostome clade in the Braconidae and the (pimpliformes C ichneumoniformes) clade in the Ichneumonidae. Gauld (1988) provides an overview of the diversity of life history strategies within the entire Ichneumonoidea. We categorize taxa according to whether the host is concealed at the stage at which it is attacked and we use the term concealed to include hosts in all degrees of concealment: from within wood to inside leaf mines or leaf rolls. The depth of concealment of the host may not automatically reect how difcult it is to parasitize: Parasitoids attacking hosts deeply concealed in wood often simply thread their ovipositors through cracks, whereas those attacking miners may have to penetrate plant tissue. Nonkoinobionts, and taxa whose biology is unknown or difcult to code, were treated as uncertain for MP estimates and pruned VOL. 51 from the tree for ML estimates (see below). Taxa whose biology was difcult to code include the tryphonines mentioned above and species such as the ichneutine Paroligoneurus Muesebeck, which attacks the eggs of leaf-mining hosts (eggs of leaf-miners can be pushed into plant tissue to various degrees). Taxa in which the female enters the chamber of concealed hosts to attack them were coded as exposed. The ancestral node of a clade was treated as the rst bifurcation within that clade, rather than the node linking the clade to its sister group. The taxa analyzed are listed in the Appendix with their EMBL/GenBank accession numbers. Our taxon coverage is very good at the subfamily level: Among the noncyclostome Braconidae we lack representatives only of the Amicrocentrinae, which attack lepidopteran stalk borers and have long ovipositors (van Achterberg, 1979a); the Ecnomiinae, of which the biology is unknown and the afnities are unclear (Park and van Achterberg, 1994); and a few small microgastroid subfamilies, namely, the Dirrhopinae, Khoikhoiinae, and Mendesellinae. We lack representatives for only four ichneumonid subfamilies, and three of these probably belong in the (pimpliformes C ichneumoniformes) clade: the Agrioptypinae, Pedunculinae, and Claseinae. The only omission from the ophioniformes clade is the Tatogastrinae; the Townesioninae has recently been shown to belong to the Banchinae (Gauld and Wahl, 2000a). More detail of the life history of the noncyclostome Braconidae is given in Table 1; the composition of the six analyzed clades is summarized below. The sigalphoid clade.—This contains the Sigalphinae and the Disophrini (Agathidinae) braconids, which attack exposed hosts, and the remaining Agathidinae, all of which attack concealed hosts. The macrocentroid clade.—Two macrocentrine genera (Austrozele Roman and Dolichozele Viereck) attack exposed hosts, whereas the remaining genera attack concealed hosts. The helconoid clade.—The Xiphozelinae and some Homolobinae attack exposed hosts, whereas the Helconinae (as previously constituted), Microtypinae, and Charmontinae attack concealed hosts exclusively. Two genera currently placed in the Helconinae, Canalicephalus Gibson and 2002 BELSHAW AND QUICKE—ROBUSTNESS OF ANCESTRAL S TATE ESTIMATES 453 TABLE 1. Categorization of life history for noncyclostome braconid taxa. “Semiconcealed” refers to hosts such as leaf miners and leaf rollers, which are treated as concealed in our analyses; “other” is used for all life histories that do not t our categorization (discussed further in text). Life history category Taxon Sigalphoid Clade Agathidinae Sigalphinae Helconoid Clade Helconinae (part) Agathidini, Earinini, and Microdini Concealed Disophrini Exposed Concealed Semiconcealed Lepidoptera larvaea Lepidoptera larvaea Semiconcealed Lepidoptera larvaea Brachistini and Diospilini Concealed Eadyiini Exposed Helconini Concealed Seed-feeding Coleopterab, c except for Brulleia, which has one record from cerambycid larvaed . Egg-larval where known Eadya attacks exposed chrysomelid larvae h Cerambycid and other wood-boring Coleoptera larvaec One record from an exposed Lepidoptera larva; both genera have short ovipositorse Sequenced species have short ovipositors and attack caterpillars that feed exposed at night; other species have a long ovipositor Xiphozelinae Exposed Homolobinae Exposed Macrocentroid Clade Macrocentrinae Macrocentrus, Hymenochaonia, and Aulacocentrum Austrozele Dolichozele Microtypinae Charmontinae Euphoroid Clade Euphorinae Neoneurinae Meteorinae Microgastroid Clade Cardiochilinae, Microgastrinae, and Miracinae Cheloninae Concealed Semiconcealed Lepidoptera larvaeb Exposed Host feeds exposed nocturnallyb . Short ovipositor One record from an exposed hosta . Short ovipositor Semiconcealed Lepidoptera larvaea Semiconcealed Lepidoptera larvaeb Exposed Concealed Concealed Exposed Meteorus Exposed Exposed or concealed Zele Exposed Adult insects in at least six ordersb ; Rhopalophorus and Cosmophorini attack scolytid beetles, but at least in Cosmophorus the female goes into the host burrow and holds the host with its mandiblesb Ants Lepidoptera and Coleoptera larvae; exposed and concealed to various degrees, including leaf miners and bark borersb Nocturnal Lepidoptera larvaeb Exposed, Wide range of Lepidoptera larvae, concealed, both exposed and semiconcealeda ; or other some Microgastrinae are egg-larvali Other Egg-larval parasitoids of Lepidoptera (chiey semiconcealed). Degree of exposure of eggs, and length of ovipositor, varya Other Leaf-mining Lepidoptera larvae, especially Nepticulidae; assumed to be egg-larvalb Adelius Other taxa Orgilinae Further details Mimagathidini Concealed Orgilini Concealed Leaf-mining Lepidoptera larvae, but probe the workings rather than piercing the plant tissueb Leaf-mining Lepidoptera larvae Sources: a D Wharton et al. (1997) , b D Shaw and Huddleston (1991), c D Hanson and Gauld (1995), d D Chen and van Achterberg (1993), e D van Achterberg (1979b), f D Belshaw et al. (2000) , g D Gibson (1972), h D Huddleston and Short (1978), i D Ruberson and Whiteld (1996) , and j D Oda et al. (2001). 454 VOL. 51 S YSTEMATIC BIOLOGY TABLE 1. Continued. Life history category Taxon Ichneutinae Helconinae (part) Cenocoeliinae Aphidiinae Mesostoinae Other Canalicephalus and Urosigalphus Concealed Concealed Exposed Other Urosigalphus Huddleston, were rarely recovered in this clade. Eadya, previously placed in the Euphorinae, clearly appears to belong in the Helconinae and attacks exposed hosts. The euphoroid clade.—This contains the Euphorinae and Neoneurinae, all of which attack exposed (adult) hosts, plus the Meteorinae, some of which attack concealed hosts. In some analyses the Cenocoeliinae, which attack concealed hosts, are also recovered among this clade. The microgastroid clade.—This contains many genera that attack exposed hosts and others that attack concealed hosts. Unlike in the above clades, many genera in this clade, representing both life history states, are not represented in our data set. The Campopleginae clade.—This clade consists of the taxa currently placed in the Campopleginae but excluding Chriodes Förster, Hellwigia Svépligeti, and Nonnus Cresson, which are misplaced within this subfamily. Not all of the variation in the Ichneumonidae is represented by the taxa sequenced here, and we assumed that life histories are constant within genera. In some cases (Chriodes, Hellwigia, Nonnus, Oxytorus Förster, tersilochine sp.) the host is unknown, and we have inferred life history from the length of the ovipositor and, in the case of Nonnus, the swollen foretibia often associated with locating concealed hosts (Broad and Quicke, Further details Egg-larval parasitoids of sawy larvaea, b except for Oligoneurus and Paroligoneurus, which attack leaf-mining Lepidoptera and Diptera but probably also egg-larvala, b Urosigalphus attacks seed-feeding Coleopterag ; assume the same for Canalicephalus Coleoptera larvae with various degrees of concealmentb Aphids Phytophagous, idiobiont, or unknownf, j 2000); Panteles Förster is treated as missing data, although its host is a gall former, because of its putative close relationship to Stilbops Förster, which oviposits into the host egg. Laboratory Protocols DNA was extracted from single specimens (or parts of specimens weighing no more than »30 mg) by using the DNeasy kit (Qiagen) with nal elution into 100 ¹l of water. All polymerase chain reactions were carried out in ABI 2400 or 9600 thermal cyclers in 50 ¹l reaction solutions containing 1.0 ¹l of DNA extract, 20 pmol of primers, 10 nmol of dNTPs (Amersham Pharmacia Biotech; APB), 1.5 units of Taq polymerase (Roche), 5.0 ¹l of Taq buffer (containing 1.5 mM MgCl2 ). Cycling conditions (35 cycles, plus an initial denaturation for 2 min and a nal extension for 7 min) were 94± C for 30 sec, 50± C for 30 sec, and 72± C for 1 min. Products were cleaned by using the GFX band purication kit (APB) and were sequenced directly with dye terminators on ABI 373 and 3700 automated sequencers (using one-half and one-fourth the recommended volumes, respectively). The D2–D3 28S rDNA region was amplied as a single fragment, and D4–D10 28S rDNA was amplied in a further three fragments. All primer sequences are given in Table 2. TABLE 2. Primer sequences. All sequences are written 5’ to 3’. Variable regions in 28S rDNA match those in Drosophila melanogaster (Hancock et al., 1988). 18S rDNA primers are from Sanchis et al. (2000): forward is V4.up1, reverse is 18S.lo1. In a few taxa these were used in combination with one of two internal primers (forward is NS58 C 2; reverse is NS58 ¡ 3) to amplify the gene in two contiguous fragments. Region Forward primer 18S 18S internal 28S D2-3 28S D4-5 28S D6-7 28S D8-10 CAG CCG CGG TAA TTC CAG C TCC GAT AAC GAA CGA GAC TC GCG AAC AAG TAC CGT GAG GG CCC GTC TTG AAA CAC GGA CCA AGG GGA GTG TGT AAC AAC TCA CCT GCC G CCC ATA TCC GCA GCA GGT CTC C Reverse primer CTT CYG CAG GTT CAC CTA C GAG TCT CGT TCG TTA TCG GA TAG TTC ACC ATC TTT CGG GTC GTT ACA CAC TCC TTA GCG GA GAC TTC CCT TAC CTA CAT AGT CAA ACT CCC TAC CTG GC 2002 BELSHAW AND QUICKE—ROBUSTNESS OF ANCESTRAL S TATE ESTIMATES Phylogeny Estimation Our phylogeny estimates are based on an approximately threefold expansion of the D2 28S rDNA molecular data set used in previous studies (Belshaw et al., 1998, 2000; Dowton et al., 2002). Because this region is difcult to align across the entire superfamily, we therefore analyze the Ichneumonidae and Braconidae separately and root them by using the results of a third (“rooting”) phylogenetic analysis. This rooting analysis is based on a data set comprising representative braconid and ichneumonid taxa plus several aculeates (the putative sister group of the Ichneumonoidea; a total of 32 taxa). We sequenced these for a much larger region of the 28S gene (spanning the D2–D10 regions; length 2643–3260 bp), which includes more conserved regions that are alignable between more distantly related taxa, plus a 1177–1223 bp region of the 18S rDNA gene. We also included in this rooting analysis the braconid Megalohelcon Turner, which we excluded from our analysis of the Braconidae because of its unknown life history and highly divergent (both in length and base composition) D2–D3 28S sequence (Belshaw et al., 1998). The data sets for the Braconidae and Ichneumonidae consist of 121 and 114 species, respectively, sequenced for the D2–D3 regions of 28S rDNA; sequence lengths were 593–716 bp (Braconidae; both extremes were found within the aberrant subfamily Aphidiinae, discussed below) and 625–664 bp (Ichneumonidae). The small D3 region was not sequenced in 45% of the genera, which are from earlier studies, mostly our own. In addition, we repeated some of the analysis with an additional 21 braconid species (total 142); these species were additional Aphidiinae, which we included to help overcome phylogenetic artifacts caused by the group (see below), plus representatives of novel taxa obtained near the end of the project. The Braconidae analysis consisted of noncyclostomes plus six representatives of the well-supported cyclostome clade. For the Ichneumonidae, where fewer assumptions about relationships can be made, we included representatives of all available subfamilies. Several phylogenetic methods are available for analyzing DNA sequences of such variable lengths, and the main problem is 455 in choosing between them (Morrison and Ellis, 1997; Sanchis et al., 2001). One approach is to use congruence as a measure, preferring alignment methods or alignment parameters that maximize congruence. This congruence can be with a taxonomic classication, morphological data, other genes, or even different regions of the same gene (Wheeler, 1995; Giribet and Wheeler, 1999; Cognato and Vogler, 2001; Giribet, 2001). However, in the absence of independent data, the approach we chose was to use a wide range of methods and compare the results. Representative DNA alignments are available in Nexus format at http://www.bio.ic.ac.uk/research/data/ Ichneumonoid. The traditional method for analyzing variable length sequences is to produce a multiple alignment, from which a tree is subsequently built. An appealing recent alternative is the program POY by D. Gladstein and W. Wheeler (Wheeler, 1996), which implements a direct optimization, nding the most-parsimonious tree (MPT) for variable length sequences, given the cost of inserting a single gap relative to a substitution. We discuss POY below among the alignment methods. Alignment by using POY.—We analyzed our sequences with POY version 2.6 (obtained from ftp://ftp.amnh.org/pub/ molecular/poy), running in parallel on a cluster of ve 486 MHz processors. In addition to the directly optimized phylogeny estimates, POY can also generate a multiple alignment (using the command, impliedalignment), which we used for subsequent tree-building, treating the gaps as missing data. The original tree found by POY can be recovered from this multiple alignment by searching with a step matrix that gives gaps the same weight as in the original POY search. POY was the only method we used with the D2–D10 28S and 18S rDNA rooting data set. To speed computation with the 28S data, and hence to nd shorter trees in heuristic searches, we made initial alignments of the original four amplied fragments, which we then subdivided to give a total of 31 homologous regions. These 31 regions were aligned independently in POY, using 20 random additions with SPR (subtree pruning and regrafting) and TBR (tree bisection and 456 VOL. 51 S YSTEMATIC BIOLOGY reconnection) branch swapping on a maximum of 10 trees in each case. The 18S rDNA sequences were much less variable in length and so were aligned as single fragments, using the same search protocol (except for Homolobus Foerster and Masona van Achterberg, which we were unable to amplify for this gene). Although the braconid D2–D3 region was amplied as a single fragment, we aligned it in four data les simultaneously. We did this to avoid obvious alignment artifacts caused by a deletion of »50 bp found in one genus, Ephedrus, and because we lacked the D3 region for many of the taxa. Large gaps appear to cause problems for all of the alignment programs we have come across, such that obviously homologous regions at the beginning and ends of gaps are not being aligned together. This problem can be overcome by creating multiple data sets so that the regions homologous to large gaps are aligned separately. In addition to the default gap:substitution cost in POY of 2:1, we also explored the robustness of results to the alignment protocol by repeating analyses with two additional gap: substitution cost ratios, 1:1, and 3:1. Each search consisted of 20 random additions followed by branch swapping by SPR and TBR on a maximum of two trees (we used only the rst multiple alignment where two were found). To align the ichneumonid D2–D3 region in two data les (D2 and D3), we used the default gap cost only and 50 random additions. Alignment by using ClustalX.—We also used the distance-based program ClustalX (Thompson et al., 1997), again using a range of gap costs: We used gap opening costs of 20, 10, 5, and 2.5 with gap extension costs of 10, 5, 1, and 0.5, respectively (contrary to the default setting, we gave transitions the same weight as transversions). The D2–D3 sequences were subdivided as for the POY analysis, but each was aligned individually and then pasted together into a Nexus le for tree building. Alignment by using secondary structure.— The use of the secondary structure of RNA molecules can improve phylogeny inference, although the preferred methods are difcult to implement (Page, 2000). Here, we used Page’s alignment editor SSE (obtained from http://darwin.zoology.gla.ac.uk/ »rpage/sse/) to align sequences manually with reference to the secondary structure according to Kjer (1995). The initial alignment was by Clustal as implemented in SSE. The initial folding estimates for all sequences were the single optimum folding structure obtained from the program mfold version 3.0 (Zuker et al., 1999; Mathews et al., 1999) as implemented at http://bioinfo.math.rpi. edu/»mfold/rna with default settings. We did not include the smaller D3 region in the secondary structure–based analyses. Alignment “by eye”.—We also aligned the sequences “by eye,” using the primary structure only. This method can give defensible results (Belshaw and Quicke, 1997; Belshaw et al., 2000; Sanchis et al., 2001) but is hindered by subjectivity, especially in the order in which taxa are aligned to each other, and by not being replicable. It is a useful adjunct to alignment programs, especially in helping to spot artifacts. Tree-Building Methods Unfortunately, ML searches were not possible, given the computational demands of our large data set. Using Modeltest version 3.0 (Posada and Crandall, 1998), we found that incorporating rate heterogeneity into a model improved the t of that model to the data much more than did incorporating any other parameter. For example, the difference in log likelihoods between a Jukes–Cantor (1969) model (JC) and JC plus a shape parameter (0) was more than twice that between JC and general time reversible (GTR) models. However, even after setting JC C 0 parameters from the MPT, heuristic searches consisting of a single random addition without branch swapping took »1 week on a 250 MHz G3 Powermac and failed to nd more likely trees. We therefore used two methods: unweighted MP, and minimum evolution (ME). We built MP trees using the above multiple alignments using PAUP¤ (Swofford, 1998) and found the MPT by using 1,000 random additions with the TBR method of branch swapping with TBR on a single tree, followed by an additional round of branch swapping on the resulting trees with no restriction on the number of trees held. Searches were made with gaps treated as missing data. Within the 28S sequences of our taxa is a range of compositional biases. In addition to the general reduction in GC content in Braconidae compared with the Ichneumonidae 2002 BELSHAW AND QUICKE—ROBUSTNESS OF ANCESTRAL S TATE ESTIMATES and other Hymenoptera (Belshaw et al., 1998), further marked reductions are evident within the family. Therefore, because of this potential problem of convergent base composition, we also built ME trees by using LogDet/Paralinear distances in PAUP¤ . The use of LogDet/Paralinear distances can make phylogenetic estimates more robust to changes in base composition (Swofford et al., 1996) and has reduced this problem in other studies (Chang and Campbell, 2000). In addition to the problem of compositional biases, a moderate degree of among-site rate heterogeneity (Yang, 1996) is apparent among our sequences; for example, the POY alignment of braconid sequences with gap cost of 2 has a shape parameter ® of 0.70 (obtained from MPT with the JC C 0 model; gaps treated as missing data). The presence of invariable sites can mislead model-based phylogeny estimation (Lockhart et al., 1996) unless they are accommodated by the model (Swofford et al., 1996), so we incorporated an invariable sites model into our ME search in PAUP¤ . The proportion of invariable sites (I) was calculated from a MPT and a simple ML model (JC C I; use of alternative trees and more complex models changed the estimates of I by <1%). Because of the variation in base composition, sites were removed in proportion to base frequencies, which were estimated from constant sites only (Swofford et al., 1996). We assessed the robustness of branches by using bootstrapping (Felsenstein, 1985), with 1,000 pseudoreplicates for ME phylogeny estimates; for MP phylogeny estimates, we used 100 pseudoreplicates each of 100 random additions with branch swapping on a single tree. Some preliminary phylogeny estimates of the Braconidae recovered the aphidiine tribe Aphidiini together with two of the ichneutines: Masonbeckia Sharkey and Wharton plus Proterops Wesmael. This result is clearly an artifact because, in addition to the morphological evidence (Quicke and Belshaw, 1999), several studies using a range of genes have shown the Aphidiini to be a derived clade within the Aphidiinae (Belshaw and Quicke, 1997; Smith et al., 1999; Sanchis et al., 2000). This problem may be caused by convergent GC content, with Masonbeckia having the lowest CG content in our data set (0.31), outside of the Aphidiinae (where CG content decreases to 0.25). To alleviate this problem, we 457 included more aphidiine sequences in our expanded data set (142 taxa) to reduce branch lengths among the Aphidiinae. As a measure of the accuracy of the different methods of phylogeny estimation, we noted which analyses failed to recover the Aphidiinae as monophyletic. We also scored the Aphidiinae as monophyletic when they were (occasionally) recovered as paraphyletic with respect to their sister group, which we refer to in this study as the Mesostoinae. Ancestral State Estimation Using the phylogeny estimates obtained as explained above, we estimated the ancestral states of the main koinobiont clades by both MP and ML and assessed the robustness of these estimates by using step matrices and differences in likelihood, respectively. First, we estimated ancestral life history states by using unweighted MP as implemented in MacClade version 4.0 (Maddison and Maddison, 1992). The character was treated as binary: either koinobionts with host concealed (D 0) or host exposed (D 1). As discussed above, other life history states were treated as missing data. In analyses of the main braconid data set (D 121 taxa) we deliberately miscoded the life history of one member of the genus Meteorus Haliday so as to represent the range of life history states known to occur within this morphologically well-supported genus. Late in the project we obtained a member of this genus with the relevant life history, so we could avoid this articiality in the analyses of the expanded data set (D 142 taxa). To assess the robustness of these MP estimates, we used step matrices as follows. We rst created a data set consisting only of the life history character repeated many times plus a corresponding number of step matrices with the 0 to 1 transformation increasing in increments of 0.1, holding constant the weight of the reverse transformation. Using this le, we estimated the state of an internal node of interest under each step matrix in a single PAUP¤ execution, repeating the procedure for each phylogeny estimate (with both ACCTRAN and DELTRAN transformations). We found the weight at which the estimate of a specic internal node became either ambiguous or reversed by logging the output to a le and using a program written in Python 458 S YSTEMATIC BIOLOGY VOL. 51 2.1. (PAUP¤ and Python les are available at http://www.bio.ic.ac.uk/research/data/ Ichneumonoid.) Second, we estimated ancestral life history states by using ML as implemented in Discrete 4.0 (Pagel, 1994). Rates of transitions between the two states were not restricted (estimated values of the transition from concealed to exposed were between 1.1 and 2.7 times greater than the reverse on different phylogeny estimates). Discrete accepts only binary data, and taxa coded as missing data for the MP ancestral state estimates were pruned from the trees by MacClade. Trees were then converted to the format required for Discrete by using the program Moreways (written by R. Freckleton, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford). This format includes a basal node with two branches, so one outgroup taxon was left in; after conversion, the branch of the outgroup taxon was deleted, together with the branch leading to the ingroup. Repeated analyses gave identical results for all data sets, with no evidence of local optima. To assess the robustness of these ML estimates, we calculated the likelihood with the node of interest successively set to state 0 and then to state 1, following Pagel (1999a) in using “local” estimates. We interpreted differences between the log likelihood values of 2.0 and above as showing signicant support for the ancestral state with the greatest likelihood (Schluter et al., 1997; Pagel, 1999b). All ML ancestral state estimations were carried out on ME C I trees, which should provide more accurate branch lengths. 2. Give the life history character a weight of 0, so the tree length displayed comes from the DNA characters only. 3. Move branches to make the estimated ancestral state ambiguous or reversed while adding the least to the tree length. Although one cannot possibly check all topologies, which even in smaller trees would be astronomically high, the range of candidate topologies is actually manageable and can be compared in this way. We found that only two or three changes were required, moving taxa with the alternative life history nearer to the base of the clade, or joining basal clades together. 4. After each change, use the search option in MacClade to try to nd moreparsimonious rearrangements both above and below the altered region of the tree. 5. Save the new suboptimal tree. 6. Repeat for each node of interest. 7. Repeat, using other alignments. 8. Compare the suboptimal trees with the original MPT from which they were derived. Several tests are available for assessing the signicance of differences between two trees. We used the Shimodaira– Hasegawa (Shimodaira and Hasegawa, 1999) as implemented in PAUP¤ . This test compares the likelihoods of the two trees and is more appropriate to the a posteriori hypothesis testing here (Goldman et al., 2000; Buckley et al., 2001). However, for consistency of approach with the MP manipulations, we also present the results of the parsimony-based Kishino–Hasegawa test (Kishino and Hasegawa, 1989), also implemented in PAUP¤ . Robustness of MP Estimate to Uncertainties in Phylogeny The above manipulations in MacClade are very laborious, so here we present the results of manipulating only a single MPT from each alignment. Only minor differences were found when other different MPT were analyzed; for example, in preliminary analyses (not shown) we compared 10 MPT with their individual suboptimal trees. In 12 of 13 comparisons, the length differences between the optimal and suboptimal trees were all within 20% of the minimum difference observed. When this method found trees that were not signicantly longer, in which the ancestral state estimate had been reversed or ambiguous, then clearly the null hypothesis cannot be rejected. When the differences are As mentioned above, the consistency of ancestral state estimates on different estimates of phylogeny gives us a crude measure of their robustness. In addition, we manipulated MP trees to nd the shortest tree in which the ancestral state estimate for a specic mode was reversed or rendered ambiguous. We could then test whether this suboptimal tree was signicantly worse. As illustrated in Figure 1, our procedure was as follows: 1. Map unambiguous changes in life history onto a single MPT in MacClade. 2002 BELSHAW AND QUICKE—ROBUSTNESS OF ANCESTRAL S TATE ESTIMATES 459 FIGURE 1. Method of assessing robustness of MP ancestral state estimate to uncertainties in phylogeny estimation. (a) Optimal tree: one MPT from the expanded noncyclostome data set aligned “by eye” (length 5,683). For clarity, this tree has been pruned of additional branches within clades of uniform life history. Note that the estimated ancestral state of the helconoid clade is unambiguously concealed. (b) Shortest suboptimal tree found by branch manipulatio n in MacClade in which the estimated ancestral state of the helconoid clade was not unambiguously concealed (length 5,704). Two branches were moved to nd this suboptimal tree: First, outside the helconoid clade, the Canalicephalus branch was moved one node nearer to the base of tree; second, inside the helconoid clade, the Homolobinae branch was moved one node nearer to the base of the clade. These two changes lengthen the tree by 23 steps; use of the searching tool in MacClade then found a tree only 21 steps longer (length 5,704). (Note: The branch labeled Canalicephalus includes Urosigalphus.) 460 S YSTEMATIC BIOLOGY signicant, however, the possibility still remains that better suboptimal solutions exist that have been missed by our manual searching strategy. One approach is to search through many sub-optimal trees to nd such trees. We explored this approach, but the large numbers of trees involved make this a problematic procedure. By keeping a single tree from each random addition in PAUP¤ and restricting the branch swapping, we obtained a wide distribution of tree lengths (using TBR, SPR, nearest neighbor interchange, or no branch swapping progressively lengthens the mean lengths of the trees found). We then, using a Python 2.1 program (mentioned above), found the shortest of these on which the ancestral state estimation at a specic node was reversed or made ambiguous. In the example illustrated in Figure 1, by manipulation in MacClade we found a tree only 21 steps longer in which the ancestral state estimate for the helconoid clade was ambiguous. In an examination of 30,000 suboptimal trees, the shortest we found by using the automated method was 102 steps longer! Although we can focus the search by excluding large regions of tree space through the use of constraint commands, the automated method then starts to resemble the manual one. R ES ULTS Phylogeny Estimation The lengths of the aligned data sets were 3,463, 1,302, and 971 bp for the D2–D10 28S rDNA, Braconidae D2–D3 (121 taxa), and VOL. 51 Ichneumonidae D2–D3, respectively (all from POY multiple alignments with gap cost of 2). The braconid D2–D3 sequences were highly variable, with 39% of characters being parsimony-informative, but perhaps surprisingly homoplasy was not high: data decisiveness (DD; Goloboff, 1991) D 0.61 (with 10,000 random trees; RI D 0.67). The ichneumonid D2–D3 sequences were more conserved, with 30% of characters parsimony-informative, but homoplasy was greater (DD D 0.54; RI D 0.60). The data sets used for the rooting were more conserved but at the same time more homoplastic: The complete D2–D10 28S alignment had 23% of characters parsimony-informative with DD D 0.35 (RI D 0.45), and the 1,302 bp POY (gap cost 2) alignment of 18S sequences had only 8.1% of characters parsimonyinformative and DD D 0.49 (RI D 0.55). Note that gaps were treated as missing data for all the above measurements. Direct optimization of the rooting data set by using POY gave some clearly erroneous results. Both Megalohelcon and Ussurohelcon Belokobylskij have long insertions into a similar region of the 28S gene (Fig. 2). These insertions lack the sequence similarity that would indicate they were homologous, and the repeated simple motifs suggest a series of unrelated slippage events in DNA replication (Hancock and Dover, 1988); nevertheless, presumably because of the length similarity, POY always recovers these two taxa together (Fig. 3). This greatly affects the overall phylogeny estimate because Megalohelcon is a basal braconid (Belshaw et al., 1998, 2000) and this erroneous linkage causes FIGURE 2. Part of the D7 region of the 28S subunit in selected species showing apparently homoplastic insertions into Megalohelcon and Ussurohelcon. Sequences aligned by POY (see text). Positions relative to start of aligned D2–D10 region are shown. 2002 BELSHAW AND QUICKE—ROBUSTNESS OF ANCESTRAL S TATE ESTIMATES FIGURE 3. Estimated phylogeny in Ichneumonoidea using direct optimization of D2–D10 28S rDNA sequences in POY (length 8,141). Searching protocol: 100 random additions with SPR and TBR swapping on 10 trees, and gap:substitution cost of 2:1 (default). Branches are thickened if they are also recovered with gap:substitution costs of 1:1, 3:2, and 3:1; robustness of these branches is shown by jackboot values obtained from POY (the four estimates show gap:substitution costs increasing from 1:1 to 3:1, each calculated by using 100 random additions with SPR and TBR swapping on 10 trees). 461 Ussurohelcon and other helconoids to be pulled to the base of the tree, forming a grade. Another artifact shown in Figure 3 is that the agathidine Braunsia Kriechbaumer and the aphidiine Lysiphlebus Foerster were always recovered together—despite the presence of another aphidiine Ephedrus Haliday and the related Mesostoa van Achterberg in the data set. We suspect this result is caused by localized convergence in length and base composition (discussed further below). Our preferred rooting analysis is shown in Figure 4, obtained by using the POY multiple alignment of the D2–D10 28S sequences followed by ME C I tree building (note that gaps are treated as missing data in such distance-based tree building). Addition of the 18S gene had little effect: All branches with bootstrap values >60% in the preferred analysis of the 28S gene alone were also recovered when this gene was included. All analyses of the complete D2–D10 28S region found Megalohelcon to be the most basal Braconidae (although sometimes as the sister taxon to a helconoid), but as discussed above, we did not include this species in subsequent analyses of the Braconidae. Instead, we placed the root of the Braconidae between the cyclostomes and the noncyclostomes. FIGURE 4. Estimated phylogeny in Ichneumonoidea used for rooting the separate Braconidae and Ichneumonidae phylogenetic estimates. ME (LogDet) C I tree from POY multiple alignment of D2–D10 28S rDNA sequences (gap cost, 2). Bootstrap values >50% shown. 462 S YSTEMATIC BIOLOGY VOL. 51 FIGURE 5. Estimated phylogeny in the noncyclostome Braconidae. ME (LogDet) C I tree from ClustalX multiple alignment of D2–D3 28S rDNA sequences (gap opening and extension costs of 5 and 1, respectively). Ancestral MP life history estimates are shown for main clades. See Figures 6 and 7 for species names. Extended dataset (142 taxa). 2002 BELSHAW AND QUICKE—ROBUSTNESS OF ANCESTRAL S TATE ESTIMATES In the Ichneumonidae, the root appears between the ophioniformes and the (pimpliformes C icheumoniformes) clade. The only other taxa for which placement was uncertain with respect to these rootings were the Xoridinae, Labeninae, and Hybrizon in the Ichneumonidae and Masona in the Braconidae. However, these uncertainties do not affect our later analyses because xoridines and labenines are idiobionts, and the life histories of Hybrizon and Masona are unknown. In Figures 5–7 we present the estimated phylogenetic relationships within the Braconidae, and Figure 8 illustrates the relationships within the Ichneumoninae, both rooted as described above. Differences in the 463 recovery of the clades of interest caused by different alignment and tree-building methods are summarized in Table 3. Regarding the recovery of the Aphidiinae test clade, we nd reasons to suspect only those alignments obtained when using POY with default and higher gap costs. This increases our concern over this method. Failure to recover the Aphidiinae as monophyletic in one of the analyses with the “by eye” alignment was rectied when more aphidiine sequences were included. The only other problem was with the ClustalX alignment with very low gap costs. We also found some striking branch length differences, for example, at the base of sigalphoid clade (Fig. 5). Some of this may result from the greater lineage FIGURE 6. Expansion of Figure 5 to show composition of helconoid and euphoroid clades in the noncyclostome Braconidae. Bootstrap values >50% are shown. For MP ancestral life history codings, see Figure 5. 464 S YSTEMATIC BIOLOGY VOL. 51 FIGURE 7. Expansion of Figure 5 to show composition of macrocentroid, microgastroid, and sigalphoid clades in the noncyclostome Braconidae. Bootstrap values >50% are shown. For MP ancestral life history codings, see Figure 5. sampling involved (more sequence variation will be represented in better-sampled clades; Page and Holmes, 1998), but this clade also apparently has an increased rate of molecular evolution (the base composition in this clade is similar to that in, for example, the microgastroid and ichneutine clades). Similar changes have been observed in this gene in other insect lineages (Friedrich and Tautz, 1997). Differences in the recovery of taxa of uncertain afnities are summarized in Table 4. We commonly recover Masona close to the sigalphoid clade and the Ichneutinae close to the microgastroid clade, whereas the afnities of the Orgilinae and Cenocoeliinae remain unresolved. Also, in all analyses, Proavga Belokobylskij, currently placed in the outgroup (Hormiinae), is recovered in the sister clade to the Aphidiinae (Fig. 5). The placement of the clade consisting of the Aphidiinae plus its sister group is sensitive to the method of phylogeny estimation, although it is always recovered near the base of the Braconidae. Ancestral State Estimates and Their Robustness In Table 3 we present the MP estimates of ancestral life history under all our 2002 BELSHAW AND QUICKE—ROBUSTNESS OF ANCESTRAL S TATE ESTIMATES 465 FIGURE 8. Estimated phylogeny in the Ichneumonidae, showing Campopleginae clade. Single MPT length 3,590 (gap D 2) from POY alignment of D2–D3 28S rDNA sequences. For MP ancestral life history coding, see Figure 5. Bootstrap values >50% are shown. phylogenetic estimates. We nd no clear difference in the ancestral state estimates based on the different methods of phylogeny estimation, even including those that failed to recover the test clade as monophyletic. We consistently nd that the estimate for the ancestral node of the helconoid clade is to attack concealed hosts and for the ancestral node of the euphoroid clade is to attack exposed hosts. Results are ambiguous for the other four clades, with weak tendencies towards attacking concealed hosts in the macrocentroid clade (although usually this was because it was recovered within the 466 NA Secondary structure p 3 2 ME C I ME C I ext MP MP ext ME C I MP MP ME C I ME C I ME C I ext ME C I ME C I MP MP ME C I MP MP ME C I MP MP ME C I Tree building method 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 0 Gap cost No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No No No No No Aphidiinae monophyletic 1 ? 1 1 1 ? 1 1 1 1 ? ? ? ? ? 1 ? 1 1 ? 1 Sigalphoid recovered as paraphyletic; c clade recovered excluding Charmon; m clade recovered excluding Mirax. POY 2.5 (0.5) 5 (1) 5 (1) 10 (5) 20 (5) 1 NA “By eye” Clustal Gap cost (extension) Alignment method Method of phylogeny estimation 0 ?/? 0p /? 0p /? 0p 0p 0p 0p 0p 0 0 0 0p 0p /? 0p 0p 0p 0 0p 0p 0p Helconoid 1 1 1p 1 1 1p 1 1 1 1 1 1 1p 1p 1 1p 1 1p 1p 1 1 Euphoroid 0 ? 0 0 1c 0 0 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 0 0 0 ? 0 0 ? Macrocentroid Clade ? ? 0 ? 1 0 ? ? ? ? ? ? 0 ? ? 1 1 ? 1m ? ? Microgastroid ? NA 1 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA ? 1 1 NA NA NA Campopleginae TABLE 3. Maximum parsimony estimates of ancestral life history states in the six clades of interest. States: 0 D Host concealed. 1 D Host exposed. Tree building methods: MP D maximum parsimony; ME C I D minimum evolution with invariable sites; all analyses of the Braconidae were with the 121 taxa data set except those marked “ext,” in which the extended (142 taxa) data set was used. In some analyses the Diospilini was recovered separate from the main helconoid clade, and in those cases the ancestral state of the Diospilini is shown after a forward slash. NA D not applicable (analysis not performed). 2002 467 BELSHAW AND QUICKE—ROBUSTNESS OF ANCESTRAL S TATE ESTIMATES TABLE 4. Afnities of taxa for which placement is sensitive to method of phylogeny estimation. Shown are the clades or taxa the phylogeny-sensitive taxa are recovered within, or as sister groups to. See Table 3 for explanation of abbrevations of tree building methods. Other abbreviations: Cen D Cenocoeliinae, eph D euphoroid clade, helc D helconoid clade, Ich D Ichneutinae, Org D Orgilinae, mac D macrocentroid clade, mic D microgastroid clade, out D outgroup, sig D sigalphoid clade. Method of phylogeny estimation Alignment method Gap cost (extension) “By eye” NA Secondary structure NA Clustal POY 2.5 (0.5) 5 (1) 5 (1) 10 (5) 20(5) 1 2 3 Tree building method ME C I ME C I ext MP MP ext ME C I MP MP ME C I ME C I ME C I ext ME C I ME C I MP MP ME C I MP MP ME C I MP MP ME C I Recovery of taxa Gap cost Cenocoeliinae 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 0 mic Org euph euph euph euph — mic mac mac Org mic euph euph mic euph — euph euph — — helconoid clade) and towards attacking exposed hosts in the sigalphoid and Campopleginae clades. The ML ancestral state estimates are consistent with the above MP estimates (Table 5): We nd conict only where the MP estimate is also sensitive to the method of phylogeny estimation; hence, we have little condence in it anyway. There is also a strong (and expected) correlation between the measures of robustness used with the two types of estimates: step matrices (MP) and likelihood differences (ML) shown in Figure 9. Only in two clades, therefore, the helconoid and euphoroid, do we have a signicant level of support for their ancestral state estimate, given our phylogeny estimates. In Table 6 we show the robustness of the ancestral state estimates in these two clades to the uncertainties in the phylogeny estimate. All trees on which the MP-based ancestral state estimate was either reversed or ambiguous were signicantly longer—or almost so (both Shimodaira–Hasegawa and Kishino–Hasegawa tests). Furthermore, as expected, performing the same analyses on less well supported ancestral state estimates found insignicant amounts of difference Orgilinae — Ich C mic Ich C mic Ich C mic helc none none Cen C mic Ich C mic Ich C mic Cen Cen C mic Ich C mic Ich C mic Ich C mic — — mic helc C mac — Ich C mic Ichneutinae Masona mic mic mic mic mic mic mic mic mic mic mic mic mic mic mic mic mic mic mic sig mic sig sig sig sig sig sig sig sig out sig sig sig out out out out out — out out — (not shown). For example, the ancestral state of the Campopleginae (Ichneumonidae) was either exposed or ambiguous (Table 3), but in none of the three analyses where it was exposed was the suboptimal tree on which it was ambiguous >3 steps longer than the MPT (not signicant). D ISCUSS ION AND CONCLUSIONS Within this group of parasitoid wasps, we are able to estimate with condence the ancestral life history for two clades. These estimates, however, support life history transitions in different directions. First, the robust estimate of the ancestral life history of the helconoid clade as a koinobiont attacking concealed hosts means there have been one or more transitions to attacking exposed hosts within this clade. This supports the more traditional view that koinobiosis in the Helconinae evolved directly from the ancestral idiobiont biology without an intermediate stage of attacking exposed hosts (Gauld, 1988; Wharton, 1993) rather than the hypothesis of Quicke et al. (1999). We are surprised by this because helconoids lack the drilling ovipositors used 468 5 (1) NA Clustal “By eye” 1 5 (1) Clustal POY NA Alignment gap cost (extension) Secondary structure Alignment method ME C I ME C I ME C I ME C I ME C I Tree building method 142 142 121 121 121 Number of taxa MP ML MP ML MP ML MP ML MP ML Method of estimating ancestral state 1 0 1 1 ? 1 1 0 ? 1 Sigalphoid 0 0¤ 0 0¤ 0 0¤ 0 0 ? 0 Helconoid 1 1¤ 1 1¤ 1 1¤ 1 1¤ 1 1¤ Euphoroid Clade 1 0 ? 0 ? 0 ? 0 ? 1 Macrocentroid 1 0 ? 1 ? 0 ? 0 ? 0 Microgastroid TABLE 5. Comparison of MP and ML ancestral state estimates for the ve main clades in the noncyclostome braconids. See Table 3 for explanation of abbrevations of tree building methods. ML estimate treated as binary, showing state with highest likelihood. 0 D host concealed, 1 D host exposed. ML estimates are marked with an asterisk where the differences are signicant (difference between the log. likelihoods for the alternative states is ¸2.0). 2002 BELSHAW AND QUICKE—ROBUSTNESS OF ANCESTRAL S TATE ESTIMATES 469 TABLE 6. Comparisons between MPT and shortest trees found by manipulation in MacClade on which the ancestral state estimation is ambiguous or reversed. The ancestral state estimates based on the MPT are for the helconoid clade to attack concealed hosts and for the euphoroid clade to attack exposed hosts. The results of two tests for comparing trees are shown: Shimodaira– Hasegawa (SH) test (JC C0 model), indicating difference in log likelihood, and the Kishino–Hasegawa (KH) test, showing difference in tree length. (Note: KH test is twotailed). All tree building was with gaps treated as missing data. FIGURE 9. Relationship between robustness of MP and ML ancestral state estimates. Data points are from Table 5, with clade names abbreviated. The x-axis shows the weight given to the transition necessary to make the MP estimate either ambiguous or reversed (weight of reverse transition held at 1.0); the y-axis shows the difference in log likelihoods when the ancestral nodes are xed sequentially at one of the alternative states. Tree-building method Test Helconoid clade Euphoroid clade “By eye” (142 taxa) Secondary structure POY (gap cost 1:1) POY (gap cost 2:1) POY (gap cost 3:1) SH KH SH KH SH KH SH KH SH KH 37 ¤ 21¤ ¤ ¤ 25 (P D 0:065) 19¤ ¤ ¤ 51 ¤ 18 ¤ 41 ¤¤ 24¤ ¤ ¤ 44 ¤ 15 ¤¤ 43¤ 14¤ 31¤ 15¤ ¤ 50¤ 22 ¤ ¤ ¤ 41¤ ¤ 20 ¤ ¤ ¤ 44¤ 10 (P D 0:059) ¤P by most idiobionts to gain access to their hosts; instead, they have a morphologically different ovipositor with an elaborate steering mechanism, which enables them to follow natural cracks or host-made openings in the plant tissue (Quicke et al., 1995; Edwards and Hopper, 1999). Second, the robust estimate of the ancestral life history of the euphoroid clade as a koinobiont attacking exposed hosts means that there have been one or more transitions to attacking concealed hosts within this clade. This supports the hypothesis of Quicke et al. (1999). It may be important that in this clade the concealed hosts tend to be less concealed than in the helconoids—leaf miners rather than seed, stem, and bark borers—and hence the reversal from attacking exposed hosts may be easier to make (requiring fewer adaptations). Considering the superfamily as a whole, although analysis of related taxa strongly indicates a concealed idiobiont ancestral state for the superfamily Ichneumonoidea, it does not allow us to infer more about the degree of concealment. Many of the taxa related to the Ichneumonoidea attack hosts that are only weakly concealed, and Gauld and Wahl (2000b) suggest that drilling into solid wood, as opposed to dead wood or bark, is a derived trait within at least some ichneumonoid lineages. Another potential transi- < 0:05, ¤ ¤ P < 0:01, ¤¤ ¤ P < 0:001. tion that emerges from our analyses is that among the orgilines, to attack less concealed hosts. The tribe Orgilini, whose ovipositors are as long as the metasoma, is commonly recovered as paraphyletic with respect to the single other traditionally recognized tribe, the Mimagathidini, whose ovipositors are no longer than the height of the metasoma. For several other groups of koinobionts in the Ichneumonoidea we cannot estimate their ancestral state because of the lack of the necessary phylogenetic data. In the Ichneumonidae, the (plimpliformes C ichneumoniformes) clade has some endoparasitoid koinobionts of exposed hosts: Diplazon Nees attacks aphidophagous syrphid eggs or larvae, and Euceros Grav. has planidial larvae. The other endoparasitoid koinobionts of exposed hosts occur within subfamilies (Ichneumoninae and Cryptinae) that typically attack weakly concealed hosts, including pupae, and our analyses contain insufcient examples to allow us to infer transitions in these cases. Similarly, within the cyclostome Braconidae is one major clade of koinobiont parasitoids of exposed hosts (Rogadinae: Rogadini). Shaw (1983) argued that these koinobiont parasitoids of exposed hosts evolved via koinobiont parasitoids of concealed hosts, but phylogenetic 470 S YSTEMATIC BIOLOGY relationships to the latter group have yet to be resolved. We are also unable to test Gauld’s (1988) hypothesis that the transition to koinobiont parasitoids of exposed hosts in the ophioniform ichneumonids was by way of ectoparasitic koinobiosis; in this clade, the latter biology is today found only in the Tryphoninae, the placement of which is poorly resolved by our analyses and which are commonly recovered as monophyletic (although often at the base of the ophioniform clade). Proposed Taxonomic Change Proavga clearly does not belong in the Hormiinae but rather in the Aphidiinae’s sister group: a gall-associated Southern Hemisphere clade, the members of which have previously been scattered taxonomically through the Braconidae (Belshaw et al., 2000; Oda et al., 2001). We also anticipate that further DNA sequencing will reveal more morphologically aberrant braconids to belong in this clade. To raise each of them to subfamily status would be unsatisfactory; therefore, we formally synonymize the group name Hydrangeocolinae Whiteld with Mesostoinae Achterberg, and transfer Camberriini Belokobylskij to it (Wharton and van Achterberg, 2000). All species found to belong in this clade should now be placed in the Mesostoinae (unless an older available family-level name is involved). ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This work was funded by the NERC. We thank Rob Freckleton, Rod Page, Mark Pagel, and Ward Wheeler for their programs Moreways, SSE, Discrete, and POY, respectively (and for help in running them). Richard Grenyer and Adam Lewin installed and have valiantly maintained our POY cluster. We are also grateful to Gavin Broad, Konrad Dolphin, and Andrea Webster for advice, and to the editors and reviewers of Systematic Biology for very helpful comments on an earlier draft of the manuscript. For specimens we thank C. van Achterberg, Y. Braet, G. Broad, C. Lopez-Vaamonde, M. Macedo, P. 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First submitted: 2 March 2001; Revision submitted: 21 November 2001; Final acceptance: 21 January 2002 Associate Editor: Ted Schultz 2002 BELSHAW AND QUICKE—ROBUSTNESS OF ANCESTRAL S TATE ESTIMATES 473 APPENDIX. S PECIES US ED IN THE ANALYSES Subfamily classication follows Quicke and van Achterberg (1990). Tribal classication, given only where relevant to biology, follows Austin et al. (1993) and Sharkey (1992). One Chelonus sequence is courtesy of Jim Whiteld. Accession numbers refer to D2–D3 28S rDNA sequences unless otherwise indicated: a D D2 28S region only, b D D2–D10 28S region, c D 18S rDNA, d D taxa used in expanded data set only. Silwood D Silwood Park, Ascot, Berkshire, UK. Classication Braconidae (noncyclostomes) Adeliinae Agathidinae Microdini Cremnoptini Disophrini Earinini Aphidiinae Species Adelius sp., Silwood Z97961 a Aerophilus sp. Agathiella sp., Mt. Barker, Australia Agathis montana Shestakov, Turkey Alabagrus haenschi (Enderlein), Colombia A. pachamama Sharkey, Colombia A. parvifaciatus (Cameron), Colombia A. stigma Brullé, Colombia A. sp., Surinam Bassus sp. 1, Silwood B. sp. 2, Mt. Barker, Australia B. sp. 3, Sarawak, Malaysia Braunsia sp. 1, Sabah, Malaysia AJ302785 a AJ245682 a AJ302786 AJ302787 AJ302788 a AJ302789 a AJ245683 a AJ302790 a Z97943 AF173217 AJ302793 AJ302919 b AJ307449 c AJ302797 AJ302804 AJ302805 AJ302802 a AJ302806 AJ302826 AJ302810 AJ302811 AJ302826 Z97944 a AJ245684 Z83587 a,d AJ245689 AJ245690 Z83594 AJ302938 b AJ009329 c Z83598 a,d AJ245693 AJ302910 b AJ009332 c Z83589 a,d AJ245694 a, d Z83585 a,d AJ245696 a, d AJ245697 a Z83593 a,d Z83588 a,d Z97950 a AJ302796 a AF029120 a AF029118 a Z83605 a Z97945 a AJ245687 a Z97949 a B. sp. 2, Sao Tome, Africa Cremnops sp. 1, Sulawesi, Indonesia C. sp. 2. Seram, Indonesia Coccygidium sp. Dichelosus sp., French Guyana Zelomorpha sp., Peru Euagathis sp. 1 E. sp. 2 Pseudocremnops sp., Sulawesi, Indonesia Earinus elator (Fabricius), Silwood Archaphidius sp., Bangladesh Binodoxys acalephae (Marshall), Silwood Choreopraon totarae ms name, New Zealand Diaeretus leucopterus Haliday, Germany Dyscritulus planiceps (Marshall), Silwood Ephedrus californicus Baker, USA Ephedrus persicae Froggatt, Silwood Lipolexis gracilis Foerster, Germany Lysiphlebus fabarum (Marshall), Silwood Blacinae Cardiochilinae Cenocoeliinae Charmontinae EMBL/GenBank accession number Monoctonus pseudoplatani (Marshall), Silwood Paralipsis inervis Nees, Germany Pauesia juniperorum Stary, CABI culture Praon pequodorum Baker, USA Pseudephedrus chilensis Stary, Chile Pseudopraon mindariphagum Stary, USA Trioxys pallidus (Halliday), Silwood Blacus sp. 1, Silwood B. sp. 2 Toxoneuron nigriceps (Viereck), culture Cardiochiles fuscipennis Szepligeti Cenocoelius analis (Nees), Silwood C. artseni, Silwood Capitonius sp., Colombia Charmon sp., Silwood 474 S YSTEMATIC BIOLOGY VOL. 51 APPENDIX . Continued Classication Species Cheloninae Ascogaster sp. Queensland, Australia Chelonus sp.1, Silwood C. sp. 2, Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA C. sp. 3, Lenswood, Australia Phanerotoma sp., Kakadu, N. Territory, Australia Phanerotomella sp., Java Euphorinae Chrysopophthorus sp. Cosmophorus cembrae Ruschka, Switzerland Centistes gasseni Shaw, Brazil C. sp., Costa Rica Dinocampus coccinellae (Schrank) Falcosyntretus sp., USA Lecythodella sp., Costa Rica Leiophron uniformis (Gahan) Mannokeraia gibsoni MS name, Australia Microctonus aethiopiodes Loan Orionis eximius Shaw Peristenus sp., Silwood Pygostolus sp., Silwood Rhopalophorus sp., Canada Helconinae Eadyini Brachistini Streblocera (Eutanycerus) sp. S. (Asiastreblocera) olivera Quicke and Purvis, Thailand Wesmaelia lizanoi Shaw Eadya sp. (or new genus near Eadya), Australia Brulleia sp., Sarawak, Malaysia Canalicephalus sp., Sabah, Malaysia Eubazus semirugosus (Nees), Switzerland Foersteria sp. Schizoprymnus sp., Silwood and Israel Triaspis sp., Turkey Urosigalphus sp., Texas A&M culture Diospilini Helconini Homolobinae Ichneutinae Macrocentrinae Diospilus sp. 1, Costa Rica D. sp. 2, Brazil D. sp. 3, South Africa Taphaeus sp., Turkey Vadum sp., Brazil Austrohelcon sp. 1, Australia A. sp. 2, Australia Helcon sp. 1, Ardenne, France, and Bola, Turkey H. sp. 2, Sabah, Malaysia Ussurohelcon nigricornis van Achterberg, Sabah, Malaysia Wroughtonia sp., Canada Homolobus australiensis (Nixon), Australia H. truncator (Say), Ankara, Turkey Ichneutes bicolor Cresson I. sp., Ascot, UK Masonbeckia sp., French Guyana Oligoneurus sp., Cameroun Paroligoneurus sp., Costa Rica Proterops sp., Belize Aulacocentrum sp. Austrozele sp. Dolichozele sp. Hymenochaonia sp., Costa Rica Macrocentrus sp. 1, Mt. Barker, Australia M. sp. 2, New Zealand EMBL/GenBank accession number AF029121 Z83607 a See legenda AF029123 a Z97960 a AJ302933 b AJ307462 c AJ302801 AJ302803 AJ245688 AJ302800 a AJ302807 AJ302812 AJ302818 AJ245692 AJ416968 d AJ302821 AJ302824 Z97952 a AJ302828 AJ302922 b AJ307453 c AJ302830 AJ302831 AJ302835 AJ302814 AJ302798 AJ302799 Z83608 a AJ302813 AJ302934 b AJ307463 c AJ302833 AJ302923 b AJ307454 c AF029134 AJ302808 AJ416973 d AJ302832 AJ302834 AJ416970 d AJ416971 d Z97946 AJ302815 AJ302912 b AJ307445 c AJ416972 d AJ302915 b AJ302816 Z97956 a AF173223 a AJ302819 Z97962 a AJ245695 a AJ302825 AJ302791 a AJ302792 a AJ302809 AJ302817 AF029135 AJ416969 d 2002 BELSHAW AND QUICKE—ROBUSTNESS OF ANCESTRAL S TATE ESTIMATES 475 APPEND IX. Continued Classication Masoninae Mesostoinae Meteorideinae Meteorinae Microgastrinae Microtypinae Miracinae Neoneurinae Orgilinae Mimagathidini Species Masona sp., Australia Aspilodemon sp., Brazil Mesostoa kerri Austin and Wharton, Australia Proavga sp., Australia Meteoridea sp. 1, Thailand M. sp. 2, Thailand M. sp. 3, Thailand Meteorus rogerblancoi Zitani, Costa Rica M. sp. 1, Silwood M. sp. 2, Taiwan Zele albiditarsis Curtis, Silwood Apanteles subandinus Blanchard Cotesia glomerata (L.) Diolcogaster schizurae (Muesebeck) Fornicia sp., Uganda Microplitis demolitor Wilkinson Sathon falcatus (Nees) Microtypus wesmaelii Ratzeburg Mirax lithocolletidis Ashmead Elasmosoma sp., USA Neoneurus mantis Shaw Bentonia sp. 1 B. sp. 2 Trachypetinae B. sp. 3 Stantonia sp., Sumatra Orgilonia sp., Malaysia Orgilus lepidus Muesebeck O. sp.1, Silwood O. sp.2, Sulawesi, Indonesia Acampsis alternipes (Nees), Silwood Sigalphus irrorator (Fabricius), Dordogne, France S. gyrodontus He and Chen, Vietnam Megalohelcon ichneumonoides Tobias, Australia Xiphozelinae Xiphozele sp., Java, Indonesia Braconidae (cyclostomes) Acanthormiinae Braconinae Acanthormius sp. Syntomernus sp., Sabah, Malaysia Orgilini Sigalphinae Doryctinae Syngaster lepidus Brullé Jarra maculipennis Marsh and Austin Gnamptodontinae Histeromerinae Pseudognamptodon sp. Thoracoplites sp. Rogadinae Ichneumonidae Acaenitinae Adelognathinae Alomyinae Anomaloninae Rogas sp. Banchinae Atrophini Phaenolobus sp., Dordogne, France Adelognathus sp., Silwood Alomya debellator (Fabricius), Silwood Agrypon varitarsum (Wesmael), Silwood A. sp., Silwood Anomalon sp., Sabah, Malaysia Brachynervus sp., Sabah, Malaysia Trichomma sp., Sabah, Malaysia Diradops sp., Peru Leptobatopsis sp., Sabah, Malaysia EMBL/GenBank accession number AJ302914 b AJ245685 AJ302930 b AJ307460 c AJ416977 d AJ416974 d AJ416975 d AJ416976 d AJ302820 Z97953 a AJ416967 Z97954 a AF029126 a AF029127 a AF102741 a Z97959 a AF029129 AF029130 AJ302822 a AF029131 a AJ302929 b AJ307444 c AF029133 AJ302794 AJ302935 b AJ307464 c AJ302795 AJ302829 a AJ416965 d AF173221 a Z97951 a AJ302823 Z83609 a Z97942 a AJ416966 d AJ302911 b AJ307443 c AJ302931 b AJ307461 AJ302883 AJ296042 b AJ307456 c AJ245698 b AJ302928 b AJ307459 c AJ296059 AJ302920 b AJ307450 c AJ296058 Z97928 a Z97918 a Z83645 a AJ302927 b AJ307458 c Z97896 AJ302838 AJ302843 AJ302878 AJ302860 AJ302918 b AJ307448 c 476 S YSTEMATIC BIOLOGY VOL. 51 APPENDIX . Continued Classication Banchini Glyptini Brachycyrtinae Campopleginae Collyriinae Cremastinae Cryptinae Ctenopelmatinae Cylloceriinae Diacritinae Diplazontinae Eucerotinae Ichneumoninae Labeninae Species Lissonota sp. 1, Turkey L. sp. 2, Silwood Banchus volutatorius (L.) Hilbre Island, UK Exetastes sp., Silwood Apophua bipunctoria (Thunberg), Silwood Brachycyrtus sp. Charops sp., Sabah, Malaysia Chriodes sp. Diadegma mollipla (Holmgren) D. sp., Brazil Dusona sp., Silwood Hellwigia obscura Gravenhorst, France Lathrostizus sp., Silwood Nonnus sp., Costa Rica Rhimphoctona sp., Turkey Venturia canescens (Gravenhorst), Texas A&M Culture Xanthocampoplex sp., Australia Collyria coxator (Villers), Silwood gen. sp. indeterminate , Kenya Pristomerus vulnerator (Panzer), Silwood Arthula sp., Australia Ateleute sp., Sabah, Malaysia Cisaris sp., Sabah, Malaysia Demopheles corruptor (Taschenberg), Silwood Dichrogaster sp., Silwood Hadrocryptus sp., Silwood Nematopodius debilis (Ratzeberg), Silwood Paraphylax sp., Sabah, Malaysia Phygadeuon sp., Silwood Xanthocryptus sp., Sabah, Malaysia Absyrtus sp., Silwood Alexeter sp., Silwood Pion sp., Dordogne, France Perilissus sp., Silwood Xenoschesis sp., Silwood Cylloceria sp., Silwood Diacritus aciculatus (Voll.), Chippenham Fen, UK Diplazon laetatorius (Fabricius), Silwood Euceros sp., Silwood Cryptefgies albilarvatus (Gravenhorst), Silwood Lusius sp., Sabah, Malaysia Apechoneura sp., Belize Grotea sp., Belize Labena sp.1, Costa Rica L. sp. 2, Belize Poecilocryptus nigromaculatus Cameron, Australia Lycorinae Mesochorinae Metopiinae Microleptinae Neorhacodinae Lycorina sp. (apicalis gp) Mesochorus sp., Silwood Colpotrochia cincta (Scopoli), Silwood Exochus sp., Silwood Hypsicera sp., Silwood Microleptes aquisgranensis (Först.), Chippenham Fen, UK Neorhacodes enslini (Ruschka), Chippenham Fen, UK EMBL/GenBank accession number AJ302859 Z97906 a AJ302842 Z97907 a AJ302840 Y18585 a AJ302844 AJ302845 AJ302851 AJ302852 Z97891 a AJ302858 Z97892 a Z97893 a AJ302872 AJ245958 a AJ302917 b AJ307447 c Z97923 a Z97895 a Z97894 a AJ302841 AJ302926 b AJ307457 c AJ302846 AJ302850 Z97920 a AJ302857 a Z97921 a AJ302867 AJ292080 AJ302880 Z97901 a Z97902 a Z97904 a Z97903 a Z97905 a AJ302847 Z97929 a Z97925 a Z97917 a Z97919 a AJ302913 b AJ307446 c AJ302839 AJ302856 Y18583 a AJ302932 b AJ307467 c AJ302921 b AJ307452 c AJ302861 a Z97900 a Z97897 a Z97898 a Z97899 a Z97924 a Z97910 a 2002 BELSHAW AND QUICKE—ROBUSTNESS OF ANCESTRAL S TATE ESTIMATES 477 APPENDIX . Continued Classication Ophioninae Orthocentrinae Orthopelmatinae Oxytorinae Paxylommatinae Phrudinae Pimplinae Poemeniinae Rhyssinae Stilbopinae Tersilochinae Tryphoninae Xoridinae Species Enicospilus ramidulus (L.), Silwood Eremotylus sp., Dordogne, France Euryophion latipennis (Kirby), Togo, Africa Ophion ventricosus Gravenhorst, Silwood O. obscuratus Fabricius Thyreodon laticinctus Cresson, Belize Proclitus sp., Silwood Orthocentrus sp., Silwood Megastylus sp., Belize Picrostigeus recticauda (Thomson), Silwood Orthopelma mediator (Thunberg), Chippenham Fen, UK Oxytorus sp., Silwood Hybrizon buccatus Brebisson, Silwood Phrudus badensis Hilpert, Silwood Acropimpla sp., Sabah, Malaysia Apechthis sp., Silwood Delomerista mandibularis (Gravenhorst), Silwood Dolichomitus imperator (Kriechbaumer), Silwood Ephialtes manifestator (L.), Silwood Exeristes sp., Turkey Itoplectis sp., Silwood Nomosphecia melanosoma (Morley), Australia Parema sp., Sabah, Malaysia Schizopyga sp., Silwood Tromatobia oculatoria (Fabricius), Silwood Zaglyptus sp., Florida, USA Neoxorides nitens (Gravenhorst), Dordogne, France Poemenia hectica (Gravenhorst), Silwood Pseudorhyssa alpestris (Holmgren), Henley, UK Cyrtorhyssa sp., Sabah, Malaysia Epirhyssa sp., Sabah, Malaysia Megarhyssa sp., Canada Myllenyxis sp., Sabah, Malaysia Rhyssella approximato r (Fabricius), Chippenham Fen, UK Triancyra sp., Sabah, Malaysia Panteles schnetzeanus (Roman), Ascot, UK Stilbops vetula (Gravenhorst), Dordogne, France gen. sp. indeterminate, UK Probles sp. Stethantyx sp., Belize Cosmoconus sp., Silwood Dyspetes praerogator (Thomson), Silwood Grypocentrus sp., Silwood Monoblastus sp., Silwood Netelia sp., Silwood Oedemopsis scabricula (Gravenhorst), Silwood Polyblastus sp., Silwood Ischnoceros caligatus (Gravenhorst), Silwood Odontocolon dentipes (Gmelin), Silwood Aculeata Dryinidae Xorides praecatorius (Fabricius), Silwood Xorides (Cyanoxorides) sp., Sabah, Malaysia Lonchodryinus rucornis (Dalman) Bethylidae Cephalonomia stephanoderis Betrem Apidae Apis mellifera L. EMBL/GenBank accession number Z97887 a Z97886 a AJ302854 Z97888 a Z97889 a AJ302876 Z97926 a Z97927 a AJ302862 AJ302870 Z97922 a AJ302865 a AJ302908 b AJ307441 c Z97908 a AJ302837 Z97934 a AJ302849 Z97935 a AJ302909 b AJ307442 c AJ302855 Z97937 a AJ302864 AJ302868 Z97938 a Z97939 a AJ302882 Z97930 a Z97931 a Z97932 a AJ302848 AJ302875 Z97933 a AJ302863 AJ302873 AJ302877 AJ302866 Z97909 a Z97890 a AJ302871 AJ302874 Z97911 a AJ302853 Z97912 a Z97913 a Z97914 a Z97915 a Z97916 a AJ302916 b AJ307451 c AJ302924 b AJ307455 c Z83612 a AJ302881 AJ302907 b AJ307440 c AJ302937 b AJ307466 c AJ302936 AJ307465 c
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