What does complexity theory
teach us about innovation,
diffusion and transitions?
Koen Frenken
Lorentz Center
Leiden, 23 March 2015
Background reading
Definitions
• Innovation is the introduction
of a new item in a population
• Diffusion is the spreading of a
new item throughout a
population
• Transition is the replacement
of an existing item by a new
item in a population
Complexity theory
• Innovation as search on a
fitness landscape (biology)
• Diffusion as a percolation
process (physics)
• Transition as escaping from
lock-in caused by positive
externalities (economics)
Plan
• Part 1: Innovation as a
complex design problem
• Part 2: Diffusion as a complex
network problem
• Part 3: Transition as a complex
coordination problem
Part 1:
Innovation
NK-model
Kauffman
The Northrop anomaly
Vincenti
Decentralisation
Rivkin/Siggelkow
Constructional selection
Altenberg
Modularity
Simon
The pros of complexity
• Mean fitness of local optima K
but fitness of global optimum K
• For a firm, complex technology is
less likely to be improved but
more likely to be protected from
competitors
Part 2:
Diffusion
Percolation
Solomon
Welfare loss
Zeppini
Small worlds
Part 3:
Transition
Positive externalities
Tipping point
Implications
“Two's Company, Three is Complexity”
Discussion
• What is the most important
research question in the field?
– Diffusion in networks
– Sustainability transitions
• From which interactions with
other fields would your field
benefit?
– Network sociology
– Institutional sociology
– Big data
[email protected]
Twitter: @kfrenken