2016 AFRICA MEETING OF THE
ECONOMETRIC SOCIETY
Protea Hotel Kruger Gate, Mpumalanga, South Africa
26-28 July 2016
Quantec Research (Pty) Ltd
Department of Economics
Department of Economics
University of Cape Town
2016 Africa Meeting of the Econometric Society
Protea Hotel Kruger Gate, Mpumalanga, South Africa, 25-28 July 2016
TUESDAY, 26 JULY
Breakfast (served from 06:30 - Kudyela Restaurant)
08:30 (1.1) Financial Markets & Crises
(1.2) Market Structure
(1.3) Sector Mobility
Construction of a Leading Economic Index for
Recession Prediction using Vine Copulas - Kajal Lahiri,
State University New York, Albany, USA & Liu Yang,
Nanjing University, China.
Buyer Power and Dependency in a Model of
Eating Up Productivity: Social Insurance Barriers to
Negotiations - Roman Inderst, University of Frankfurt, Structural Change - Leandro Magalhaes, University of
Germany & Joao Montez, London Business School, UK. Bristol, UK, Raul Santaeulalia, Washington University
St. Louis, USA, Dongya Koh, University of Arkansas,
USA & Yu Zheng, City University of Hong Kong, China.
Transmission channels of international financial crises
to African stock markets: The case of the euro
sovereign debt crisis - Sandrine Kablan, ERUDITE,
Université de Paris Est Créteil, IPAG-Lab, Paris France
& Olfa Kaabia, INSEEC Lab, INSEEC Business School,
Paris, France.
Forecasting Oil and Stock Returns with a Qual VAR
using over 150 Years of Data - Rangan Gupta,
University of Pretoria & Mark Wohar, University of
Nebraska-Omaha, USA.
Segmentation versus Agglomeration: Competition
between Platforms with Competitive Sellers - Heiko
Karle, ETH Zurich, Martin Peitz, University of
Mannheim & Markus Reisinger, Frankfurt School of
Finance & Management, Germany.
A tale of two sectors: why is misallocation higher in
services than in manufacturing? - Daniel A. Dias, Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and
CEMAPRE, Carlos Robalo Marques, Banco de Portugal
& Christine Richmond, IMF, Washington, USA.
Endogenous market transparency and prduct
Public R&D investment policies and recent trends in
differentiation - Witness Simbanegavi, AERC, Nairobi, inequality and growth - Yoseph Getachew, University
Kenya.
of Pretoria, SA.
Break
10:00
10:30
Presidential Address
Hard evidence in games and in mechanism design - Eddie Dekel, Northwestern University and Tel Aviv University.
Annual General Meeting
11:30
12:00
Lunch
13:00 (1.4) Panel Models
(1.5) Peer Effects
(1.6) Institutions and Stability
Corruption and growth in Africa - Giorgio D'Agostino,
University Ca' Foscari, Venice, Paul Dunne, University
of Cape Town & Luca Pieroni, University of Perugia.
The Importance of Informal Intellectual Collaboration
with Central Colleagues - Co-Pierre Georg, University
of Cape Town and Deutche Bundesbank & Michael E.
Rose, University fo Cape Town, SA.
Economic Development and Democracy: The
modernisation hypothesis in sub-Saharan Africa Carolyn Chisadza & Manoel Bittencourt, University of
Pretoria, SA.
Asymptotic Expansions and Approximate Moments for
Non-Linear Panel Data Models with Separable Errors,
Gubhinder Kundhi, Memorial University of
Newfoundland, Canada & Paul Rilstone, York
University, Toronto, Canada.
Military Expenditure, Endogeneity and Economic
Growth - Luca Pieroni, University of Perugia, Italy &
Paul Dunne, University of Cape Town, SA.
Peer Effects on Locus of Control - Mauricio Chikitani, Socio-Political Instability and Inflationary Dynamics Vladimir Ponczek & Cristine Pinto, São Paulo School of Lardo Stander, Manoel Bittencourt & Rangan Gupta,
Economics, Brazil.
University of Pretoria, SA.
14:30
15:00 (1.7) Applied Finance
Capital, risk, profitability of WAEMU banks: Do foreign
ownership and cross-border banking matters? - Désiré
Kanga, ENSEA, Abidjan, Ivory Coast, Victor Murinde,
University of Burmingham & Issouff Soumare, Laval
University, Quebec, Canada.
The Liquid Hand-to-Mouth: Evidence from a Personal
Finance Management Software - Michaela Pagel,
Columbia Business School, New York, USA & Arna
Olafsson, Copenhagen Business School, Denmark.
Estimation of social interaction models using
regularization - Guy Tchuente, University of Kent, UK.
Break
(1.8) Human Capital & Education
Asymptotic Normality of the Pseudo Maximum
Likelihood Estimation in ARCH(1) under Dependent
Innovations - Eugene Kouassi, West Virginia
University, USA, Patrice Soh Takam, University of
Yaoundé, Cameroon, Jean Marcelin B. Brou, University
FHB, Abidjan-Cocody, Ivory Coast & Kodje M. Djiffa,
Univerity of Lomé, Togo.
The Association of Parental Education with Childhood An Evaluation of the impact of Monetary Policy
Undernutrition in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Announcements and Political Events on the Exchange
Comparing the Role of Paternal and Maternal
Rate: The Case of South Africa - Trust R. Mpofu &
Education - Christian Bommer, Sebastian Vollmer &
Amos Peters, University of Cape Town, SA.
Vera Sagalova, University of Goettingen, Germany.
Financial Inclusion and Welfare in Post-Apartheid
Human Capital and Economic Growth in Uganda South Africa - Elizabeth Lwangan Nanziri, University of Jimmy Alani, Makerere University, Uganda.
Cape Town, SA.
17:00
20:00
(1.9) ARCH & GARCH
School Quality is a Premium – Quantifying the
Advantage in Literacy Skills from Higher-Quality
Schools in South Africa - Annika B. Bergbauer, Ifo
Institute for Economic Research, Munich, Germany.
Game Drive (17:00 to 20:00)
Dinner (served from 18:30 - Kudyela Restaurant)
Consistency of the Pseudo Maximum Likelihood
Estimation in ARCH (1) under Dependent Innovations Eugene Kouassi, West Virginia University, USA, Patrice
Soh Takam, University of Yaoundé, Cameroon, Jean
Marcelin B. Brou, University FHB, Abidjan-Cocody,
Ivory Coast & Kodje M. Djiffa, Univerity of Lomé, Togo.
WEDNESDAY, 27 JULY
Breakfast (served from 06:30 - Kudyela Restaurant)
08:30 (2.1) Pricing and Equilibrium
When Borch's Theorem does not apply: some key
implications of market incompleteness, with policy
relevance today - Jacques Drèze, CORE, Université
catholique de Louvain, Belgium.
(2.2) Models of Risk & Uncertainty
(2.3) Macro Development
GMM estimation of the Long Run Risks model - Nour
Meddahi, Toulouse School of Economics, France.
The Heterogeneous Effects of Transportation
Investments: Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa 19602010 , Rémi Jedwab, George Washington University,
Adam Storeygard, Tufts University, Medford, USA.
Profitability of Pricing Menu - Babu Nahata, University Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Economic
Minorities and Long-run Development: Persistence of
of Louisville & Sergey Kokovin, Novosibirsk State
Fluctuations - Drew Dennis Creal & Jing Cynthia Wu, Armenian and Greek Influence in Turkey - Cemal E.
University, USA.
University of Chicago Booth School of Bussiness, USA. Arbath, National Research University Higher School of
Economics, Moscow & Gunes Gokmen, New Economic
School, Moscow, Russia.
The Style of Colonial Rule and Economic Growth in subDoes Regret Explain Why People Search too little? A
Simple moment-based tests for value-at-risk models
Saharan Africa: A Long-run Perspective - Clinton Joel &
model of Sequential Search with Anticipated Regret
and discrete distributions - Christian Bontemps,
and Rejoicing - Zhiquan (Darren) Weng, Beijing Normal Toulouse School of Economics, France.
Reneé van Eyden, University of Pretoria, SA.
U-Hong-King Baptist University, China.
Market Foreclosure and Welfare Under Monopolistic
Second-degree Price Discrimination - Yong Chao &
Babu Nhata, University of Louisville, USA.
10:30
11:00
Bond Risk Premia in Consumption-Based Models Drew Dennis Creal & Jing Cynthia Wu, University of
Chicago, USA.
Education and Fertility: Panel Time-Series Evidence
from Southern Africa - Manoel Bittencourt, University
of Pretoria, SA.
Break
Invited Lecture
Human Capital, Earnings and Taxation - Richard Blundell, University College London and Institute for Fiscal Studies, London.
12:30
Lunch
13:30 (2.4) Health & Social Security
(2.5) Models of Learning
(2.6) Aid & Agriculture
Retirement and memory performance among older
citizens in European Countries - Gulnara Huseynli,
University Ca Foscari of Venice, Italy.
Top Trading Cycles in Endogenous Information
Acquisition - Annika Johnson, Royal Holloway,
University of London, UK.
Does Foreign Aid Play a Role in the Maintenance of
Economic Growth? A Non-Linear Analysis - Nermeen
Harb, Stephen G. Hall, University fo Leichester, UK.
The Global Economic Burden of Diabetes: A Cost-ofIllness Study - Christian Bommer, Esther Heeseman,
Vera Sagalova, Jennifer Manne, Rifat Atun, Till
Bärnighausen, & Sebastian Vollmer, University of
Goettingen, Germany.
Learning in Network Games - Jaromir Kovarik,
University of the Basque Country & Bridge, Friederike
Mengel, University of Essex & Gabriel Romero,
Universidad de Santiago de Chile.
Does Foreign Aid Reduce Poverty? A Panel Data
Analysis for Sub-Saharan African Countries - Edmore
Mahembe, University of South Africa & MM
Odhiambo, University of South Africa.
A Flow Measure of Missing Women by Age and
Disease - Stephen Klassen, Sebastian Vollmer & Vera
Sagalova, University of Goettingen, Germany.
Bayesian learning with multiple priors and nonReturn to investment in agricultural cooperatives:
vanishing ambiguity - Alexander Zimper, University of Evidence from natural experiment - Dambala Gelo,
Pretoria, SA.
University of Cape Town, SA.
15:00
15:30 (2.7) Macroeconomics & Financial Markets
Break
(2.8) Market Equilibrium
(2.9) Labour Market Dynamics
Adverse selection in OTC derivative clearing collateral:
Should government intervention tightly constrain
collateral quality? - Norris L. Larrymore, New York
University, USA.
Welfare cost of bank capital requirements with
endogenous default - Fernando Garcia-Barragan &
Guangling Liu, Stellenbosch University, SA.
To Share or Not to Share: Adjustment Dynamics in
Sharing Markets - Maryam Razeghian & Thomas
Weber, Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne,
Switzerland.
Multiple Lenders, Strategic Default and Covenants Andrea Attar, Toulouse School of Economics and
University of Roma Tor Vergata, Catherine Casamatta,
University of Toulouse 1, Arnold Chassagnon,
University of Tours & Jean Paul Decamps, Toulouse
School of Economics, France.
Local labour markets and migration in South Africa Dieter von Fintel & Eldridge Moses, Stellenbosch
University, SA.
Two-Block World Economy, Banking and Financial
Crisis - Ruthira Naraidoo, University of Pretoria, SA.
Public information from a private entity: the case of
credit rating agencies - Julien Trouillet, Université
Paris Dauphine, France.
Cyclicality of Wages and Union Power - Annaig Morin,
Copenhagen Business School, Denmark.
Dynamic Inconsistency, falling cost of capital
relocation and preferential taxation of foreign capital Kaushal Kishore, University of Pretoria, SA.
19:00
Dinner (Lapa)
Assessing Solutions Towards The Unemployment
Volatility Puzzle: The Role of Labor Market
Participation - Christian Haefke, New York University,
Abu Dhabi, UAE & Michael Reiter, Institute for
Advanced Studies, Vienna, Italy.
THURSDAY, 28 JULY
05:00
Game Drive (05:00 to 08:00)
Breakfast (served from 06:30 - Kudyela Restaurant)
09:00 (3.1) African Economic Research Consortium
Do governance institutions matter for trade flows
between sub-Saharan Africa and its trading partners? Adeolu Adeuyi, University of Ibadan, Nigeria &
Ebenezer Olubiyi, Ibadan, Nigeria.
(3.2) Treatment Effects Estimation
(3.3) Wealth Measures & Methods
Inference in Differences-in-Differences with Few
Treated Groups and Heteroskedasticity - Bruno
Ferman & Christine Pinto, São Paulo School of
Economics, Brazil.
The Consumption, Income, and Wealth of the Poorest:
Cross-Sectional Facts of Rural and Urban Sub-Saharan
Africa for Macroeconomists - Leandro Machado De
Magalhaes, University of Bristol, UK & Raul
Santaeulalia, Washington University St. Louis, USA.
Do Domestic Firms Learn to Export from Foreign
Quantifying Violation of Common Support in
owned firms? Evidence from Kenya - Bethuel Kinuthia, Programme Evaluation - Adeola Oyenubi & Martin
University of Nairobi, Kenya.
Wittenberg, University of Cape Town, SA.
How Facilitating Trade Would Benefit Trade in SubSaharan Africa - Abdoulaye Seck, Cheikh Anta Diop
University, Dakar, Senegal.
10:30
11:00
Specification-Search Possibilities with Synthetic
The resilience of the poor: A Markov chain analysis of
Controls - Vitor Augusto Possebom, Bruno Ferman & subjective poverty dynamics and heterogeneity Christine Pinto, São Paulo School of Economics, Brazil. Theophile T. Azomahou & Eleni A. Yitbarek, Maastricht
University And UNU-Merit.
Break
Invited Lecture
Closing the Small Open Economy Model: A Demographic Approach - Stephen Turnovsky, University of Washington, Seatle and Victoria University of Wellington, New
Zealand.
Lunch
12:30
13:30 (3.4) Macroeconomics & Policy
(3.5) International Economics
How to Design Prudent Debt Targets and Fiscal Rules - Banking Crisis and the Heterogeneous Impact on
Falilou Fall & Jean-Marc Fournier, Economics
Bilateral Trade - Matthew Clance, University of
Department, OECD, Paris, France.
Pretoria, SA.
The effects of the supply of credit on real estate prices:
Venezuela as policy laboratory - Claire Boeing-Reicher
& David Pinto, Kiel Institute for the Workd Economy,
Kiel, Germany.
The Wrong Policy at the Right Time - Joachem
Jungherr, Institut d' Anàlisi Econòmica - CSIC and
Barcelona GSE & David Strauss, Centro de
Investigación y Docencia Económicas (CIDE), Mexico
City, Mexico.
Estimating a Phillips Curve for South Africa: A
Bounded Random Walk Approach - Alain Kabundi,
South African Reserve Bank and University of
Johannesburg, SA & Eric Schaling. Wits Business
School, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam & Modetse
Some, University of Johannesburg, SA.
15:30
16:00
Subjective well-being and reference groups in postapartheid South Africa - Marisa von Fintel & Rulof
Burger, Stellenbosch University, SA.
A test of the market potential hypothesis: A case for
South Africa - Gibson Mudiriza & Lawrence Edwards,
Univeristy of Cape Town, SA.
(3.6) Count & Duration Models
Smoothed Maximum Score Estimation of Discrete
Duration Models - Sadat Reza, Singapore University &
Paul Rilstone, York University, Toronto, Canada.
Dynamic conditional score patent count panel data
models - Szabolcs Blazsek, Universidad Francisco
Marroquin & Alvaro Escribano, Universidad Carlos III
de Madrid, Spain.
Fiscal Policy and Adjustment in a Foreign Exchange
Contraceptive Use and Birth Intervals - Gauthier
Constrained Economy: Evidence from Malawi - Bertha Tshiswaka-Kashalala & Steve Koch, University of
C. Bangara & Amos C. Peters, University of Cape Town, Pretoria, SA.
SA.
A New Measure of Economic Distance - Eric O'N.
Fisher, California Polytechnic State University, John
Gilbert, Utah State University, Kathryn G. Marshall &
Reza Oladi, Utah State University, USA.
Break
Plenerary Session Panel Discussion:
Research that resonates with policy and practice
18:00
19:00
Gala Dinner (African Conference Centre)