Schools Forum Agenda Item 2 Date: 3 December 2014 REPORT TITLE: EARLY YEARS AND CHILDCARE UPDATE Report by: Early Years & Childcare Contact details: [email protected] 1. Purpose of report 1.1. To update the Forum on the budget position regarding Free Early Education Entitlement (FEEE) funding for 2, 3&4 year olds and pre-school children with SEN for 2014/15 and the forecast budget requirement for 2015/16 1.2. To update on capital planning and strategy development for extending the early education entitlement for 2 year olds 1.3 To update on the review of Nursery Schools funding arrangements for 2015/16 1.4 To update the Forum on progress of ECCs proposed Capital Investment in Nursery Education Provision. 2. Recommendations 2.1. That the Forum notes the change in the forecast for 3&4 year old FEEE for 2014/15 2.2. That the Forum notes the change in the forecast for the FEEE for 2 years olds for 2014/15 2.3. That the Forum notes the 2015/16 budget requirement at 5.2 2.4. That the Forum approves new funding arrangements for Nursery Schools from 2015/16 2.5. That the Forum considers offering nursery schools sustainability funding, should occupancy levels fall below 80%. 2.6. The Forum notes the proposal for ECC officers to carry out a feasibility detailing the opportunities and risks of relocating the Woodcroft nursery school to an area of need to improve outcomes for young children 3. Relevance to Strategic Plans 3.1. Early Years & Childcare are committed to ensuring ‘Children in Essex get the best start in life’. Our vision is underpinned by Essex County Council’s (ECC) Corporate Outcomes April 2014 - 2018: Objective 1: Children in Essex get the best start in life: o children ready for school o children achieving a good level of development 1 Objective 3: People in Essex have aspirations and achieve their ambitions through education and lifelong learning o children attending a good school o children achieving at school (measured at Foundation stage, KS2 and KS4) 3.2 These outcomes are where we want to get to and although our focus is without a doubt to ensure that children in Essex get the best start in life, we believe that by doing this we contribute and invest in the success of other ECC outcomes. 3.3 FEEE supports Essex County Councils priority of ‘enabling every individual to achieve their ambitions by supporting a world-class education and skills offer in the county’ and the current Children’s Partnership Commissioning Plan. 3.4 In addition FEEE also supports Essex County Council’s, Lifelong Learning Strategy 2013 – 18 Priority 1 of ‘every child achieves a good level of development in the early years’. 4. Background 4.1. The FEEE funding supports the statutory offer to all three and four year olds. In September 2014 the FEEE funding was extended to 40% of the least advantaged two year olds, these are children who meet predetermined eligibility criteria. 4.2. ECC was tasked to ensure there were sufficient Good or Outstanding places for up to 5,318 eligible two year olds by September 2014. During the summer term 2,797 eligible two year olds accessed FEEE places an increase of 1,227 children from summer 2013. Annex B, the FEEE for two year olds forecast data indicates the expected rate of increase in take up of the offer. By the end of the autumn term 2014 it is envisaged that there will be up to 3,702 eligible two year olds in a funded place. Applications will be accepted for funding this term up to the end of November, so far this term there are 3478 two year olds accessing the FEEE. 5. Financial Implications 5.1 Update 2014/15 forecast budget requirement The forecast for the 3&4 year olds entitlement has been revised following the receipt of the headcount data for the autumn term (Appendix A). For the revised forecast EYCC have used the actual data for the autumn term, but the figures for the spring term are based on the same methodology used to produce forecast figures for 2013/14: (i.e. number of places accessed at each setting; average number of hours accessed by each place broken down by provider type; and the number of weeks in the term, all based on actual data from previous financial years). The revised forecast indicates a full year outturn of £47.491m split between £40.057m in the PVI sector and £7.435m in the maintained sector. The large increase in the anticipated spend is due in part to the redirection of funds, after the budgets were set in November 2013, from the 3&4 year old FEEE allocation within the Early Years Block to support costs not previously accounted for in this funding envelope. The other significant contributory factor is that there has been an unprecedented increase in the number of children accessing the FEEE across the PVI sector, 853 more children 2 than the same term last year. This is unlikely to be attributed to an increase in population of three year olds as GP birth data from April 2013 indicates a slight decrease in the population. An analysis of the headcount data shows that there are 75 more providers offering the FEEE and of those 73 are childminders providing places to 149 children. Another factor to note is that the increase in numbers accessing the FEEE is almost entirely in the PVI sector, with numbers attending day nurseries increasing by 358 and preschools by 393 in the same term last year. In addition to this the providers, childminders, day nurseries and preschools, showing the greatest increase in numbers are in areas where the take-up of the two year old FEEE is prevalent. There are currently no infant/primary schools offering the FEEE to two year olds and this part of the sector has not seen a significant increase in numbers accessing the 3&4 year old FEEE. An initial analysis of the data suggests that there appears to be an increase in the number of two year olds in receipt of the FEEE that go on to access their full entitlement at the same provider when they turn three. Following on from this initial analysis EYCC will be commissioning a full review of all the data to support future forecasting. The anticipated spend is against a total budget allocation of £46.543m split between £39.029m for the PVI sector and £7.514m for the maintained sector. The potential shortfall of £0.948m will be mitigated by redirected funds from the two year old trajectory allocation and underspend on the FEEE 2 year old and QI team cost centres. 5.2 Assumptions of FEEE take up and budget requirement 2015/16 The expected numbers in 2015/16 with regard to three and four year olds are likely to be similar to those in 2014/15. The trend across the last three financial years shows an increase in the number of children accessing FEEE places plus a gradual increase in the number of hours accessed. A detailed breakdown of estimated hours accessed and cost can be found in Annex A. With regards to the two year old FEEE September 2014 target, the numbers accessing funding has increased each term and it is likely that by autumn 2015 the September 2014 target of 5318 will have been reached. A detailed breakdown of estimated hours accessed and cost can be found in Annex B. In April 2015 the Government are introducing an Early Years Pupil Premium (EYPP) set at a national rate of £0.53 per child per hour for 2015/16 which local authorities must pay to providers. Providers will get an extra £300 premium per eligible child taking up the full 570 hours entitlement per year, in addition to the 3&4 year old FEEE. The initial allocation for Essex for 2015/16 is £955,837, this has been included in the forecast and Table 1. The DfE will conduct a mandatory mid-year survey in the autumn to check take-up of the EYPP, and make adjustments to allocations in light of that. There will be more detail with regard to the implementation of the EYPP in the Early Years and Childcare update to the Forum in February. The table below gives an indication of the expected budget needed for two, three and four year old FEEE. 3 Table 1 – 2015/16 expected budgets required 2014/15 total hours accessed 000’s 2014/15 budget requirement £000's 2015/16 est. hours accessed 000’s 2015/16 forecast requirement £000's 1,637 8,402 2,212 11,060 n/a 3,451 n/a 2,516 FEEE 3 and 4 Year olds 11,690 46,543 11,689 48,318 Pre-school SEN support n/a 636 n/a 800 FEEE 2 Year olds - direct provision FEEE Support, QI Team and Area SENCOs Early Years Pupil Premium 956 Total 59,032 63,650 5.3 Update on enhanced funding for pre-school children with SEN to access the free nursery entitlement The level of funding was reviewed for 2013-14 and the budget allocation increased to £652k of which £23k remained unspent. The allocation for 2014/15 was set at £636k and based on the current forecast requirements of £722k there is the potential to over spend by £86k. The funding entitlement is completely incorporated with the allocation for FEEE within the DSG budget and the potential overspend will be met by the two year old trajectory allocation. Table 2 2014-15 Projections Summer 2014 Autumn 2014 Spring 2015 Total No of children 389 212 264 865 Average weekly cost per child £61.16 £71.73 £71.73 Number of weeks in term 12 15 11 38 Totals £285,493 £228,115 £208,316 £721,924 See table above for a revised projection of the 2014/15 spend. There is an assumption that this will reflect needs for the next financial year because: SEN/AEN are aware of significant numbers of children not yet notified to them (see Fig 2 below), and the new SEND Code of Practice has created a more ‘open’ process for notification to the Local Authority so there is expected to be an increase in ‘referrals’ 4 A further analysis has been undertaken to better understand the reasons for the over spend and two main reasons for the increase have emerged: earlier identification of SEND has increased numbers of children notified to the Local authority (Fig 1) - there has been a steady rise (since July 2012) in the number of children being supported as a result of a Section 332 notification (criterion for SEN premium) increased parental confidence in preschool nursery provision for children with SEND has increased the number who are now taking their full 15 hour entitlement from the point of eligibility (Fig 2) Fig 1 July 2014 Grand Total % Split % Increase Summer 12 Autumn 12 Spring 13 Summer 13 Autumn 13 Spring 14 Summer 14 With Section 332 referrals 944 39% 9% Fig 2 15 hour take up 185 119 148 218 142 213 293 Without Section 332 referrals 1491 61% 24% July 2013 With Section 332 referrals 867 42% 35% Without Section 332 referrals 1207 58% 18% July 2012 With Section 332 referrals 639 38% Without Section 332 referrals 1023 62% 63.57% 62.30% 66.07% 67.28% 70.29% 76.07% 76.10% 5.4 Update on the 2 year old Free Entitlement The take up of the two year old entitlement has increased in line with the forecast tabled in the July 2014 report. The total value of payments made in the summer term was £1.941m and the expected value of payments for the autumn term is £3.395m. A detailed breakdown of the forecast of the anticipated FEEE2 payments to settings for the financial year is in Annex B. 5.5 Update on the FEEE2 Capital allocation The table below sets out the amount of FEEE2 Capital funding committed at each Grants panel. There will be one more event in January for providers to apply for the remaining uncommitted funding. A total of 10 schools are set to benefit from over £1m of funding and 5 are in total increasing the number of two year old places by 300. A range of other providers are benefitting from the funding and creating 350 new places for eligible two year olds. Between September 2014 and March 2015 EYCC will be making a proportion of FEEE2 trajectory funding available to providers that were successful in their Capital applications, to support with purchasing resources for their projects. Table 3 6. PANEL DATE Approved Agreed in Principle Total committed Balance March 2014 £ 457,790.00 £ 122,723.40 £ 580,513.40 £ 2,019,486.60 April 2014 £ 230,360.00 £ 230,360.00 £ 1,789,126.60 May 2014 £ 517,421.91 £ 517,421.91 £ 1,271,704.69 July 2014 Sept 2014 £ 100,000.00 £ 100,000.00 £ £ 100,000.00 100,000.00 £ 1,171,704.69 £ 1,071,704.69 Nov 2014 £ 252,217.00 £ 252,217.00 £ 819,487.69 Nursery schools’ funding arrangements 6.1 At the time the SFF formula was devised (2009) a lump sum went to all schools, including Tanglewood and Woodcroft nursery schools, for core costs from Standard Funds. Subsequently there were national changes on how maintained schools were funded and the lump sum was absorbed into the schools funding formula and not given separately. These changes did not take account of nursery schools. As a result of this it was agreed that for the two nursery schools the same logic ought to be applied and that they would continue to receive the lump sum subject to work being undertaken to reflect this in the FEEE formula. 6.2 At the Schools Forum in July 2014, it was noted that if the lump sum continued to be paid to nursery schools annually there was a greater risk that this could be reduced or declined in future years, as the pressure on the DSG grows. The Forum therefore agreed that ECC officers should work on developing a funding formula for nursery schools by amalgamating the lump sum into the FEEE, securing longer term funding for the nursery schools. Work has been undertaken to devise a new formula that would ensure neither school would be disadvantaged by the changes. The head teachers of the two schools were consulted on the proposals on 2nd July and both agreed in principle. 6.3 Early Years were asked to consider consulting on the changes with all providers of the FEEE. The advice from Legal was that as the providers would not be affected by these changes it would not be necessary to consult with them. 6.4 Schools Forum approval is now being sought to add the lump sum paid to the two nursery schools into the FEEE, increasing the funding rate for Tanglewood and Woodcroft nursery school to £6.19 per hour from April 2015. Annex A provides a full breakdown of the forecast spend on the 3&4 year old FEEE, this includes the payments to the two nursery schools calculated at the new rate. Please note, there are no proposals to increase hourly rates of other provisions in 2015/16. 6 6.5 Woodcroft nursery school has never achieved 100% occupancy, although they have maintained steady 85-95% occupancy across the year. This was consistent until autumn 2013, but since then the nursery school occupancy levels have fallen to below 80%. The lump sum that has been paid to them annually has enabled the nursery school to bridge the funding shortfall due to low numbers. 6.6 There is a risk that the proposed new funding formula will create ongoing sustainability pressures for Woodcroft nursery school. Although the hourly rate is proposed is higher, it will only be paid on take up of places, therefore without the lump sum and 80% attendance Woodcroft would become unsustainable. One solution to the issue the forum may wish consider is offering nursery schools sustainability funding should occupancy levels fall below 80%. 6.7 The headteacher at Woodcroft is constantly exploring opportunities for income generation and has introduced places for FEEE2 children. The school are now considering additional places for FEEE2 children and wrap around childcare. However sufficiency data indicates that there are limited growth opportunities available due to the number of early year’s providers in the area. Therefore, ECC officers are seeking agreement to carry out a feasibility of the opportunities and risks of relocating the nursery school to improve outcomes for young children in an area where there are insufficient good or outstanding providers. 7. Nursery Unit Expansion 7.1 On the 5 June 2014 ECC’s Capital programme Board (CPB) agreed, in principal, to invest £5m capital in 2015/16 for the development of early year’s provision in schools. The proposal was subject to Schools Forum approval and recognition that new provision will have incremental occupancy which may require revenue costs to be subsided by the Schools Forum. Without this initial subsidy this expansion project may be at risk. 7.2 On the 9 July 2014 the Schools Forum, welcomed the capital investment into early years provision in schools, but felt unable to agree to subsidize revenue costs due to the unprecedented financial pressure on the DSG. 7.3 On 24 July 2014, Capital Programmes Board noted Schools Forum decision and agreed that the proposal be developed further. It was agreed that the capital investment for nursery education provision for Primary and Infant schools be run alongside Free Early Education Entitlement for 2 year olds (FEEE). This will enable ECC to carry on with the investment in hotspot areas and in local high quality provision started by the FEEE2 capital scheme and support the development of places in geographical areas of need, to enable three and four year olds to take up their FEEE. 7.8 A Strategic business case is being presented to the to the Capital Programmes Board on the 27 November 2014. 8. Supporting papers 8.1 Annex A - FEEE for three and four year olds forecast data Annex B - FEEE for two year olds forecast data 7 Annex A - FEEE for three and four year olds forecast data 2011/12 Actual data Places 2012/13 Actual data Hours SUM 2011 12 wk term, max 180 hrs per child 336 54,972 Nursery Schools 3,024 495,498 Sch Nursery Classes 550,470 Total Payments Places Hours 2013/14 Actual data Total Payments SUM 2012 13 wk term, max 195 hrs Places Hours 2014/15 Forecast Total Payments %Places SUM 2013 12 wk term, max 180 hrs Hours 2015/16 Forecast Total Payments Actual SUM 2014 12 wk term, max 180 %Rate Places Hours Total Payments Est SUM 2015 13 wk term, max 195 hrs £286,404 342 64,983 £353,725 330 58,212 £317,025 295 52,272 £285,179 £6.19 342 64,983 £410,693 £2,061,272 £2,521,152 3,066 3,408 566,344 631,327 £2,527,432 £2,881,157 2,996 3,326 514,840 573,052 £2,296,180 £2,613,205 3,008 3,303 524,220 576,492 £2,340,196 £2,621,574 £4.27 3,066 3,408 566,344 631,327 £2,525,894 £2,936,587 Maintained sub total 3,360 Childminders Day Nurseries Independent Schools Pre-Schools 251 30,546 £137,457 318 41,204 £193,101 346 46,650 £218,098 505 64,065 £301,223 £4.61 556 72,042 £396,951 8,917 1,377,824 £5,373,514 9,262 1,581,782 £6,489,619 8,454 1,380,277 £5,668,666 9,046 1,503,996 £6,182,783 £4.01 9,262 1,581,782 £6,501,124 969 151,321 £590,152 954 145,965 £590,268 1,088 174,271 £705,175 1,093 169,940 £687,805 £4.01 1,108 169,527 £747,614 13,450 1,871,244 £6,942,315 13,166 2,035,507 £7,961,048 14,172 2,093,544 £8,183,487 13,864 2,089,114 £8,168,306 £3.82 13,524 2,090,854 £8,175,239 3,430,935 £13,381,035 23,700 3,804,458 £15,234,036 24,060 3,694,742 £14,775,426 24,508 3,827,115 £14,999,681 24,450 3,914,205 £15,820,929 PVI sub total 23,587 Totals 26,947 3,981,405 £15,902,187 AUT 2011 14 wk term, max 210 hrs per child 263 54,719 Nursery Schools 2,421 472,573 Sch Nursery Classes Maintained sub total Childminders Day Nurseries Independent Schools Pre-Schools 27,108 4,435,785 £18,115,193 AUT2012 14 wk term, max 210 hrs 27,386 4,267,794 £17,388,631 AUT 2013 14 wk term, max 210 hrs 27,811 4,403,607 £17,621,255 Actual AUT 2014 15 wk term, max 225 27,858 4,545,532 £18,757,515 Est. AUT 2015 14 wk term, max 210 hrs £285,086 276 57,078 £311,093 219 45,294 £246,972 226 50,310 £273,675 £6.19 276 57,344 £362,414 £1,965,904 2,278 450,510 £2,043,855 2,260 449,984 £2,006,011 2,252 483,298 £2,156,046 £4.27 2,321 464,899 £2,073,450 2,684 198 527,292 24,974 £2,369,899 £112,383 2,554 223 507,588 33,186 £2,354,948 £157,382 2,479 273 495,278 34,923 £2,252,983 £164,268 2,478 422 533,608 64,791 £2,429,721 £304,632 £4.61 2,597 422 522,243 60,472 £2,435,864 £333,201 5,775 1,053,228 £4,107,589 6,077 1,141,283 £4,683,570 5,604 1,065,033 £4,376,086 5,962 1,210,426 £4,948,757 £4.01 5,975 1,132,194 £4,653,317 1,090 8,645 199,581 1,460,501 £778,366 £5,418,459 1,159 8,224 213,565 1,439,004 £864,149 £5,626,385 1,256 8,497 239,471 1,498,517 £968,386 £5,858,297 1,210 8,890 229,295 1,690,051 £927,134 £6,612,985 £4.01 £3.82 1,159 8,945 204,988 1,587,140 £903,997 £6,205,717 2,738,284 £11,197,858 15,683 2,827,038 £11,331,486 15,630 2,837,944 £11,367,037 16,484 3,194,563 £12,793,507 16,501 2,984,794 £12,096,233 PVI sub total 15,708 Totals 18,392 3,265,576 £13,567,757 SPR 2012 12 wk term, max 180 hours per child 325 57,708 Nursery Schools 2,891 494,280 Sch Nursery Classes 18,237 3,334,626 £13,686,434 SPR 2013 11 wk term, max 165 hrs 18,109 3,333,222 £13,620,020 SPR 2014 12 wk term, max 180 hrs 18,962 3,728,171 £15,223,228 Est. SPR 2015 11 wk term, max 165 hrs 19,098 3,507,037 £14,532,096 Est. SPR 2016 11 wk term, max 165 hrs 326,730 304 49,125 £267,805 275 48,924 £267,130 315 51,370 £280,486 £6.19 325 52,975 £334,802 2,168,770 2,734 429,422 £1,913,988 2,757 477,492 £2,129,998 2,812 446,433 £1,991,449 £4.27 2,891 459,669 £2,050,124 £2,384,926 Maintained sub total 3,216 551,988 2,476,317 3,038 478,547 £2,181,793 3,032 526,416 £2,397,128 3,127 497,803 £2,271,935 3,216 512,644 Childminders Day Nurseries Independent Schools Pre-Schools 238 27,807 115,097 278 34,977 £161,616 358 46,313 £218,005 478 56,882 £262,226 £4.61 491 57,938 £319,238 7,708 1,219,135 4,664,314 8,071 1,205,064 £4,945,089 7,611 1,269,209 £5,212,377 7,708 1,178,269 £4,838,907 £4.01 8,071 1,234,863 £5,075,287 1,008 164,001 636,843 1,129 174,476 £706,103 1,178 194,272 £785,608 1,218 184,130 £744,594 £4.01 1,178 177,878 £784,442 11,248 1,617,843 5,908,091 10,905 1,494,005 £6,053,399 11,776 1,800,483 £7,037,357 11,716 1,642,034 £6,418,042 £3.82 11,809 1,653,260 £6,464,247 3,028,786 11,357,908 20,383 20,923 21,120 21,549 PVI sub total 20,202 Totals 23,418 Maintained PVI 9,260 59,497 Annual Totals 3,056,593 £13,834,225 1,629,750 £7,367,368 9,198,005 £35,936,801 68,757 10,827,755 43,451,723 2,908,522 £11,866,207 3,310,277 £13,253,347 3,061,315 £12,263,769 3,123,939 £12,643,214 23,421 3,387,069 NS Lump sum 9,000 1,617,462 59,766 9,540,018 £14,048,000 £111,472 £7,417,898 £38,431,729 23,955 3,836,693 NS Lump sum 8,837 1,594,746 60,613 9,842,963 £15,650,475 £111,472 £7,374,788 £39,395,810 24,247 3,559,118 NS Lump sum 8,908 1,607,903 62,112 10,082,993 £14,535,704 £111,472 £7,434,702 £40,056,957 24,765 3,636,583 EY Pupil Premium 9,221 1,666,214 62,500 10,022,938 £15,028,140 £955,837 £7,757,376 £40,560,375 68,766 11,157,480 £45,849,627 69,450 11,437,709 £46,770,598 71,020 11,690,896 £47,491,659 71,721 11,689,152 £48,317,751 8 Annex B – FEEE for two year olds forecast data 2012/13 Actual data Rate No of Children in places 2013/14 Actual Data Total Payments Hours SUM 2012 13 wk term, max 195 hrs No of Children in places Rate Hours 2014/15 Forecast Total Payments SUM 2013 12 wk term, max 180 hrs Rate No of Children in places Hours 2015/16 Forecast Total Payments SUM 2014 12 wk term, max 180 hrs Rate No of Children in places Hours Total Payments SUM 2015 13 wk term, max 195 hrs Maintained Providers £5.00 0 0 £0 £5.00 20 1,520 £7,600 £5.00 36 3,201 £16,005 £5.00 123 11,847 £59,235 PVI Providers £5.00 852 136,315 £681,572 £5.00 1,550 212,350 £1,030,602 £5.00 2,761 384,970 £1,924,850 £5.00 4,375 660,846 £3,304,230 852 136,315 £681,572 1,570 213,870 £1,038,202 2,797 388,171 £1,940,855 4,498 672,693 £3,363,465 Totals AUT2012 14 wk term, max 210 hrs Maintained Providers £5.00 0 PVI Providers £5.00 Totals 0 AUT 2013 14 wk term, max 210 hrs AUT 2014 15 wk term, max 225 hrs AUT 2015 14 wk term, max 210 hrs £0 £5.00 31 2,625 £13,125 £5.00 62 5,642 £28,210 £5.00 153 12,956 £64,780 1,243 213,936 £1,069,951 £5.00 2,211 381,016 £1,866,173 £5.00 3,640 673,400 £3,367,000 £5.00 4,895 843,543 £4,217,715 1,243 213,936 2,242 383,641 1,879,298 3,702 679,042 3,395,210 5,048 856,499 4,282,495 1,069,951 SPR 2013 11 wk term, max 165 hrs SPR 2014 12 wk term, max 180 hrs SPR 2015 11 wk term, max 165 hrs SPR 2016 11 wk term, max 165 hrs Maintained Providers £5.00 0 0 £0 £5.00 28 2,040 £10,200 £5.00 93 6,185 £30,923 £5.00 183 12,222 £61,110 PVI Providers £5.00 1,397 189,320 £945,773 £5.00 2,408 350,711 £1,823,352 £5.00 4,160 563,680 £2,818,400 £5.00 5,023 670,606 £3,353,030 Totals 1,397 189,320 945,773 2,436 352,751 1,833,552 4,253 569,865 2,849,323 5,206 682,828 3,414,140 Maintained Providers 0 0 0 79 6,185 30,925 191 15,028 75,138 459 37,025 185,125 PVI Providers 3,492 539,571 2,697,296 6,169 944,077 4,720,127 10,561 1,622,050 8,110,250 14,293 2,174,995 10,874,975 Annual Totals 3,492 539,571 £2,697,296 6,248 950,262 £4,751,052 10,752 1,637,078 £8,185,388 14,752 2,212,020 £11,060,100 9
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