BRIDGEND COUNTY BOROUGH COUNCIL
REPORT TO COUNCIL
23 JUNE 2010
REPORT OF THE LDP STEERING GROUP
BRIDGEND LOCAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (LDP) EVIDENCE BASE:
EXAMINING ALTERNATIVE DEMOGRAPHIC AND LABOUR MARKET PROJECTIONS
April 2010
1.
Purpose of Report.
1.1
On the 3rd June 2010 the Development Control Committee in their role as the “LDP
Steering Group” considered a report on the examination of alternative demographic
and labour market projections for Bridgend County Borough. The report sought to
inform members of evidence which has implications for the deposit Bridgend Local
Development Plan which is due to be published later this year.
1.2
The LDP Steering Group recommends that Council:

notes the production the Cambridge Econometrics report Examining Alternative
Demographic and Labour Market Projections attached as Appendix 1.

endorses the use of the Cambridge Econometrics Population and Employment
Projections as the basis of the Deposit LDP.
2.
Connection to Corporate Improvement Plan / Other Corporate Priority.
2.1
The Bridgend Local Development Plan (LDP) is one of the four ‘high level’
strategies which, under the Assembly Government’s Plan rationalisation, must be
prepared and approved for the County Borough.
2.2
The LDP should express, in appropriate land use planning terms, those elements of
the Community Strategy that relate to the development and use of land provided
they are in conformity with national and international policy and obligations.
3.
Background.
3.1
The Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act 2004 requires the Council to prepare a
Local Development Plan (LDP) setting out its objectives for the development and
use of land in Bridgend County Borough over the plan period to 2021, and its
policies to implement them.
3.2
The Bridgend Local Development Plan (LDP) will set out the Council’s land use
strategy for the County Borough for the period 2006 – 2021. The purpose of the
LDP is to identify the anticipated level of future development, the types of
development that should take place, and where that development will take place
during the life of the Plan.
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3.3
Section 61 of the Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act 2004 requires local
planning authorities to keep all matters under review which are expected to have an
affect on development in their area. Local Development Plans Wales, the Assembly
Government’s guidance on producing LDPs, states that:
“An authority’s policies and proposals should be founded on a thorough
understanding of an area’s needs, opportunities and constraints. This requires
authorities to prepare, maintain or have access to an up-to-date information base
on sufficient aspects of the economic, environmental and social characteristics of
their area to enable the preparation of a ‘sound’ development plan” (Paragraph 4.3
refers).
3.4
Local Development Plan Regulations require that, before finally determining the
content of its Local Development Plan (LDP) for deposit, the Council must publish
its Pre-Deposit Proposals for public inspection and comment.
3.5
The Pre-Deposit Proposals identify the issues facing the County Borough leading to
the development of the LDP Vision and associated Objectives. They also consider
various growth options and spatial strategies, which are assessed to determine the
most appropriate and sustainable way of achieving the Vision and Objectives. A key
aspect of this is estimating the future levels of population and growth. Future levels
of anticipated growth can raise some very significant issues which may have a
major influence on all land requirements such as housing, employment and retail.
3.6
The culmination of this process is the Preferred Strategy and Strategic Policies
which form the development framework and basis for meeting the key economic,
social and environmental needs of the County Borough over the Plan period up to
2021. The Preferred Strategy consists of the following 3 elements:
Regeneration Led Spatial Strategy will require the Council to focus development
across the County Borough in accordance with its Regeneration priorities. This will
necessitate directing development to those areas currently subject to area based
Regeneration Strategies and other priority areas where regeneration and
investment is needed to address an identified and acknowledged decline in the
social, economic and physical environment and provide much needed new
development and facilities.
Trend-Based Growth Option is based on the average long-term annual dwelling
completion rate in the County Borough from 1991-2006 which was 540 dwellings
per annum. The Growth Option would result in an overall dwelling requirement
between 2006 and 2021 of 8,100 dwellings, with a corresponding population at
2021 of 141,378, an increase of 9,774 above the 2006 level. That part of the
population in economic activity would increase by 1,283 by 2021.
Medium Employment Growth Option retains 160-170 hectares of the “committed”
employment land primarily for B class and sui-generis employment uses and waste
facilities. It re-assesses the remaining 40-50 hectares of UDP employment
allocations for alternative and/or mixed use developments. There is also a
requirement to investigate the possibility of allocating additional employment land to
better serve those parts of the County Borough currently not provided for.
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3.7
The Bridgend LDP: Pre-Deposit Proposals were approved for Public Consultation at
the meeting of Council held on the 11th December 2008 and published for public
consultation for six weeks from 12th February 2009 until 31st March 2009.
3.8
The results of the consultation exercise were subsequently reported to the LDP
Steering Group on the 24th September 2009 and Council on the 9th October 2009.
In response to the representations received a number of Actions were identified
which required further development of the evidence base underpinning the plan.
These were set out in the Regulation 15 (Pre-Deposit Proposals) Initial Consultation
Report.
3.9
In respect of population, housing and employment the following specific actions
were identified:
Reference to, and the implications of, the new 2006-based household projections
will be included in the Deposit LDP; and
The Council acknowledges that there is currently an apparent incompatibility
between the employment forecasts in the LDP Trend Based Growth option
(produced by the Chelmer Population & Housing Model) , and the employment
forecasts undertaken by Cambridge Econometrics for Bridgend County Borough
Regeneration Strategy “Fit for the Future” detailed in table 7.1 of the Pre-Deposit
Proposals (PDP). Further work is being undertaken to examine these relationships.
Details of the outcome of this work will be included in the Deposit LDP.
3.10
As noted, during the consultation exercise, the Welsh Assembly Government
(WAG) released its own population and household projections for Bridgend County
Borough, which show stronger population and household growth than was
proposed in the LDP Pre-Deposit Proposals. In this respect WAG planning policy,
as set out in paragraph 9.2.2 Housing Ministerial Interim Policy Statement 01/2006
Housing, states that national household projections form the starting point for
assessing housing requirements. It is for local planning authorities to consider the
appropriateness of the projections for their area, based upon all sources of local
evidence, including the need for affordable housing indentified by the Local Housing
Market Assessment (LHMA). In this regard the need for affordable housing in
Bridgend County Borough as expressed in the LHMA, which was presented to
Cabinet on the 12th January 2010, came to the conclusion that affordable housing
need in the County Borough has substantially increased from 636 to 1514 units per
annum.
3.11
Local planning authorities are advised that they have the ability to deviate from the
Assembly Government’s household projections if they have robust evidence and
policy context. They can also undertake their own policy-based projections, but they
must justify their reasons for doing so and explain the rationale behind their own
projections.
3.12
In addition the general economic environment has worsened since the projections
were prepared. Therefore the link between housing provision, population and
employment needs to be considered and reassessed to respond to issues raised by
the consultation exercise and the change to the national, regional and local context.
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4.
Current Situation
4.1
In response to the significant changes to the national, regional and local context
Bridgend County Borough Council (BCBC) commissioned Cambridge Econometrics
(CE) to further strengthen and develop the evidence base underpinning the LDP.
The particular focus of the study has been to reassess the link between planned
dwellings provision, population and employment targets.
Scope of Study
4.2
The Examining Alternative Demographic and Labour Market Projections Study,
attached at Appendix 1, was tasked with providing BCBC with a deeper
understanding of the underlying trends for population and employment in the
County Borough. The study initially reviews the alternative demographic projections
for Bridgend and the assumptions underpinning them. It then considers the
implications of the housing numbers proposed on the LDP Pre-Deposit Proposals
for population in Bridgend given the latest demographic trends and reviews them
alongside current projections for employment in the Borough. It also considers the
population and employment trends in neighbouring local authorities and the
possible impact of these upon Bridgend. Finally, it draws together the implications
of these analyses for housing and employment related policy in Bridgend.
4.3
This has required
 assessing the sources of variation in the various population, household
and labour force projections that exist for BCBC;
 understanding the impact that incorporating the 2006-based projections of
trends in average household size have on the dwellings-led scenarios
produced by Chelmer;
 re-assessing the prospects for underlying employment growth locally
given current views on the nature of the recession and subsequent
recovery; and
 examining the labour market prospects in neighbouring economies.
Alternative Population Projections for Bridgend County Borough
4.4
The projections represent the range that was available both around the time of the
LDP’s Pre-Deposit Proposal and when this study was undertaken. The projections
that were examined are:
 BCBC Chelmer-based projections used in the LDP Pre-Deposit Proposals
 Welsh Assembly Government (WAG) 2006-based population/household
projections
 CE population projections for Bridgend and for Wales (prepared in July 2009)
 Latest Chelmer Model standard short-term migration projection for Bridgend
 Bridgend BCBC Chelmer-based projections used in the LDP Pre-Deposit
Proposals using updated model;
4.5
The differences in resulting population levels, that the projections produce, are
illustrated in Table 1 below, whilst Table 2 illustrates the number of dwellings
implied by the projections examined.
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Table 1: ALTERNATIVE POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR BRIDGEND
Thousands
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
BCBC ‘trend-based’ projections
131.6
134.6
137.7
141.4
WAG 2006-based projections
132.6
136.8
141.4
146.0
150.1
Chelmer (current short-term migration)
132.6
137.7
142.7
147.5
152.0
CE (July 2009)
132.6
137.0
140.6
144.6
148.4
132.6
135.5
142.4
146.6
BCBC ‘trend-based’ projections (using
updated model)
138.6
TABLE 2: COMPARISON OF ALTERNATIVE DWELLINGS PROJECTIONS FOR
BRIDGEND
Total for
Annual
2006-
2011-
2016-
2006-
Requirement
2011
2016
2021
2021
(whole units)
BCBC ‘trend-based’ projections
2,700
2,700
2,700
8100
540
WAG 2006-based projections
3,709
3,950
3,725
11384
759
Chelmer (current short-term migration)
3,387
3,341
3,006
9734
649
CE (July 2009)
1,939
2,681
4,379
8999
600
2,700
2,700
2,700
8100
540
Additional dwellings requirement
BCBC ‘trend-based’ projections (using
updated model)
Prospects for Employment in Bridgend County Borough
4.6
The Bridgend LDP Pre-Deposit Proposals include projections of employment
produced by Cambridge Econometrics (CE). These economic projections were
produced as an input to the work undertaken by SQW Consulting for BCBC on a
regeneration strategy for the Borough. The projections were prepared in the first
half of 2007 although the study reported in June 2008. The projections were
therefore prepared at around what has turned out to be the peak in the economy,
before the onset of the credit crisis and ensuing global recession.
4.7
The impact of the recession means the number of jobs now predicted for 2021 is
some way below that projected in 2007, although the long-term growth prospects
are little-changed. The current projections predict an overall fall of 600 jobs over
2006-21 compared to an increase of 3,850 additional jobs indicated in the 2007based projections. The principle reason for the lower net additional jobs is the
impact of the recent recession and the weak recovery that is now projected.
Employment in Bridgend is now projected to have fallen in 2008 and further yearon-year falls are expected to 2011. However, in the 2015-21 period, the underlying
rate of employment growth projected now is not very much different from that in the
2007-based projections (0.3% pa compared to 0.4% pa now).
4.8
The pattern of employment change over 2006-21 as a whole differs from that of the
earlier projections, though again it is informative to consider the period 2006-12
separately from 2012 onwards, when the economy is likely to have adjusted
towards its long term prospects. The pattern of growth in the long term is similar to
that projected in the 2007-based projections, with strong growth in financial &
business services and distribution, hotels & catering, and further falls in
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manufacturing employment. The main difference between the two sets of long-term
projections is that the underlying growth in employment in government & other
services has been greatly revised downwards.
EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS FOR BRIDGEND
Thousands
Agriculture etc
Mining & quarrying
Growth, 2006-21
2000
2006
2012
2021
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.3
(Thousands)
-0.1
(% pa)
-1.9
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
-0.1
-4.5
12.4
10.1
9.3
8.5
-1.6
-1.2
water
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-100.0
Construction
2.7
5.7
3.6
3.9
-1.8
-2.4
12.5
13.6
12.5
13.6
0.0
0.0
1.8
1.8
2.0
2.1
0.3
1.0
5.4
7.9
9.6
11.1
3.2
2.3
services
19.8
23.3
22.4
22.9
-0.4
-0.1
Total
55.1
63.0
60.0
62.4
-0.6
-0.1
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas &
Distrib, hotels &
catering
Transport & comms
Financial & bus.
services
Government & other
Key Findings
4.9
Cambridge Econometrics has drawn out the following key points from the analysis.

The alternative demographic projections reviewed vary in vintage and in
methodology, covering both trend-based projections and dwelling-led projections. It
is not the case that one approach is inherently ‘better’ or ‘worse’ than the other.

The trend-based projections and dwelling-led projections are two different ways of
thinking about future developments, and each assumes different responses that
need to be tested locally. Dwellings-led projections assume that all housing
constructed will be occupied, while trend-based projections assume that the
associated housing demand will be met.

Comparing the previous preferred dwellings allocation of 540 new dwellings pa with
the implications from the WAG 2006-based projections of 780 new dwellings per
annum is not a direct ‘like for like’ comparison.

Cambridge Econometrics considers the CE projections to be the more robust trendbased projections. The approach used by CE to produce its district projections
seeks to take the strengths of the pure trend-based projections developed in a
detailed demographic model and to refine them through a link to economic activity.
In this case through population projections for Wales that are informed by relative
economic prospects. To this extent they consider the CE projections to be more
robustly based than the Chelmer/WAG trend projections.

The population outcome of the CE (July 2009) projection would result in 9,000
additional households between 2006-21. Equating increases in households to
dwellings, this equates to an annual increase in dwellings of 600 pa over the period.
The projection indicates the largest number of additional dwellings would be
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required over 2016-21 at around 880 pa, with much lower numbers required in the
preceding period.

Employment in Bridgend in 2021 is projected to be below that in 2006, and there is
a realistic risk that the gap will be lower than indicated. Demographic projections
using latest underlying trends and employing the assumptions for additional housing
set out in the LDP’s preferred growth option (net annual increase of 540 dwelling
over 2006-21) indicate little change in the size of the labour force in Bridgend to
2021, and so are broadly in line with the employment prospects.

The changing industrial structure of employment in Bridgend will result in fewer
manufacturing-related jobs and more managerial, professional and associateprofessional-type jobs. The likely increase in local opportunities of higher value
jobs may mean Bridgend is able to retain more of those who currently commute out
of the district, thereby further increasing its ability to meet its employment growth.
Implications for the Deposit LDP
4.10
In terms of housing and employment, the key findings from the study have the
following land-use policy implications for the LDP’s Preferred Strategy and the
forthcoming Deposit LDP, which in order to be ‘sound’ should be founded on an upto-date information base and accommodate the anticipated level of future
development.
1.
CE’s projected population up to 2021 of 144,600, implies an average housebuilding requirement between 2006 and 2021 of 9,000 or 600 dwellings per
annum. An LDP housing requirement based on this projection is considered
robust as it takes the strengths of the trend-based projections and refines
them through a link to economic activity. Such an increase would also be
justified on the basis that there would be an opportunity to provide more
affordable housing, as evidenced by the requirement of 1514 affordable
dwellings per annum in the recently completed LHMA.
2.
The future economic context of the LDP is very different to that envisaged at
the time of the Pre-Deposit Proposals, with employment growth overall not
expected to be as strong as previously projected. This will impact on the
scale, character and timing of future employment land provision and
allocations in the LDP. The Deposit LDP should reflect this change in
economic context, including the sectoral changes to the economy which are
predicted.
3.
There is an opportunity in terms of future housing and employment
allocations in the Deposit LDP to re-balance the downward trend in
employment need with the upward requirements in terms of population and
housing by further reassessment of the level of employment land provision.
4.
It is anticipated that the LDP’s Regeneration-Led Spatial Strategy which
advocates a number of mixed-use developments can broadly accommodate
these adjustments.
5.
In terms of it’s sustainably credentials, the level and change of growth
proposed, will continue to deliver the LDP vision and objectives, In terms of
the independent Sustainability Appraisal, undertaken at the Pre-Deposit
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Stage, a level of housing growth of 600 falls within the ‘medium’ to ‘high’
range assessed which in broad terms did not anticipate any significant
negative outcomes.
4.11
The work undertaken by Cambridge Econometrics represents a ‘snapshot’ in time
of where we are in terms of projections, as statistics are constantly being revised
and new projections published. As such, there maybe a need for minor refinements
to reflect this before the Deposit Plan is published. However the principle of using
the Cambridge Econometrics Projections is robust.
5.
Effect upon Policy Framework & Procedure Rules.
5.1
The Bridgend Local Development Plan Delivery Agreement (Revised October 2008)
is in place and has been approved by the Welsh Assembly Government.
6.
Legal Implications.
6.1
The requirements of the Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act 2004 and the
Town and Country Planning (Local Development Plan) (Wales) Regulations 2005
are being met in the preparation of the Bridgend LDP.
7.
Financial Implications.
7.1
None.
8.
Recommendation.
8.1
That Council:

Note the production the Cambridge Econometrics report Examining Alternative
Demographic and Labour Market Projections attached as Appendix 1.

Endorses the use of the Cambridge Econometrics Population and Employment
Projections as the basis of the Deposit LDP.
LOUISE FRADD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR - COMMUNITIES
23rd JUNE 2010
Contact Officer:
Susan Jones
Development Planning Manager
Telephone Number: (01656) 643162,
e-mail: susan.jones.bridgend.gov.uk
Background documents
None
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APPENDIX 1
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