Managing
Conflicts in
Water Resources
Allocation
A sustainable water allocation for Urumia Lake
Basin in Iran
Shohreh Oloumi Zad
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
A sustainable water allocation for Urumia lake Basin in Iran
Master Thesis
Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in
Management of Technology at Delft University of Technology
By
Shohreh Oloumi Zad
4037235
Graduation committee:
Chairman: Dr. W. Ravesteijn
Head of Section Technology Dynamics & Sustainable Development
First supervisor: Dr. J.O. Kroesen
Assistant professor, Section Technology Dynamics & Sustainable Development
Second supervisor: Dr. L. Hermans
Assistant professor, Section Policy Analysis
External supervisor: Prof. E. van Beek
Water Resources Specialist at Deltares
Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management
Section of Technology Dynamics & Sustainable Development
Delft University of Technology
June 2012
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The need for water allocation is growing because of increase in water demand on the one side
and decrease in water availability on the other side. As a consequence managing conflicts
becomes important because of participation of the stakeholders with different interests in the
process of water allocation. This research aims to contribute to the development of a roadmap
towards a sustainable water allocation for Urumia Lake Basin in Iran with focus on managing
conflicts. To achieve the objective, the following research question is formulated:
How to create a sustainable water resources allocation situation for Lake Urumia?
Large Technical Systems approach, a system approach, has been used to structure data gained
from different sources including previous researches, PhD dissertations, interviews and field
visit. The aim of using this approach is to clarify the problem at first, to provide a clear
picture from the region at second and finally to identify the conflicting claims.
The problem in the region is that the water demand is not in balance with water supply. The
increase in water use without considering the need of the lake and its wetlands and decrease
in precipitation due to prolonged droughts resulted in drop in the lake water level. This has
negatively affected the ecological values of the lake and its wetlands.
The region is divided between three provinces of East Azarbaijan, West Azarbaijan, and
Kurdistan. Agriculture is the main water user in this basin. The suitability of the region for
farming and the governmental support after the Iraq-Iran war to be self-sufficient in strategic
crops have led to extensive development in East and West Azarbaijan. Kurdistan, however,
has started its development more recently. The provinces consider the environmental
conservation incompatible with economic growth. But if the current condition continues, it
will result in further social, economic, and environmental problems. Therefore, the provinces
need to reduce their water uses in order to provide the adequate water to the lake and its
wetlands.
An integrated water management plan has been developed and approved in 2008.
Furthermore, water has been allocated based on a potential runoff of 6.9 billion cubic meters
between three provinces in the basin and the lake. A minimum amount of 3.17 billion cubic
meters has also been formalized as water rights of the lake. Considering the potential runoff,
water rights of the lake and the current consumption there is no shortage of water. But, there
is not enough water for a further increase in water demand.
However, the drop in water level indicates that the lake did not get enough water for several
years. This means that the surface runoff was much less than what has been considered. A
more realistic runoff in the region has been calculated to be 5 billion cubic meters. In this
case, West Azarbaijan has to decrease its water consumption and cancel its further
development as well. East Azarbaijan has to also cancel its further development. But,
Kurdistan can still continue its development. So, conflicting claims remain on who reduces
its consumption and how much. 24 executive plans have been developed to provide part of
the water for the lake. There are also some projects for transferring about 0.9 billion cubic
i
meters water from other regions. Currently, a negotiation process is taking place to allocate
water during droughts.
A graph model for conflict resolution has been selected in this stage to study the behavior of
actors involved in order to find out the possible outcome of the process. For verification, the
model has been applied to two previous negotiation processes. The results gained from the
model were the same as what happened in reality. The case to which model has been applied
was the implementation of the 24 executive plans.
The result from application of the model for the executive plans indicates that provinces of
East and West Azarbaijan will start with bringing water from another region and managing
their water inflow. Kurdistan, however, will use the water saved from implementation of the
executive plans for its further development. To motivate the provinces for taking actions for
reducing their usage, three strategies were proposed.
First, the department of environment can prohibit the industries that have high impact either
on quality or quantity of water if they do not take any action for reducing their consumption.
Second, the ministry of agriculture can influence the preferences of farmers for cultivating
crops that need less water. This can be done by: a. participation of farmers in the process of
decision making for modifying the pattern of crops, b. guarantee the sale of those farmers
who change to a crop that requires less water, and c. advertise for crops which need less
water through media and supermarkets. Third, ministry of energy can motivate industries or
farmers to reduce their water by changing regulations due to the current problem. For
example, different water tariff rates for users because of the critical situation will motivate
them to take some actions for using water more efficiently.
Finally, to develop a roadmap, the current strains on the water allocation situation have been
identified. Then, the ideal situations are defined and finally actions for achieving the
objectives have been described. The main limitation of this work is its focus in general level
and therefore it has been recommended to apply the graph model for conflict in one of the
provinces, one river, or one sector.
Keywords: LTS approach, graph model for conflict resolution, sustainable water resources
allocation, Lake Urumia
ii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
First, I would like to express my gratitude to Dr. W. Ravesteijn for his guidance. His constant
support and patience helped me to find my way through the difficulties at the beginning of
my thesis. His comprehensive attitude on my work helped me to obtain the required skills for
doing a research.
Special thanks to prof. E. van Beek for helping me to choose my topic and bringing me in
contact with Mahab Ghoddss, the company gave me the case study, and many more contacts
to get information and conduct interviews. He also helped me to understand the case and
technical concepts in water management as it was a new field for me. Without his help it was
impossible to get the appropriate information.
I would like to extend my gratitude to Dr. L. Hermans, who supported me during my thesis.
His critical point of view regarding the choices of my methods and his guidance on defining
and analyzing conflicts provided valuable contributions to my project.
Also thanks to Dr. O. Kroesen, for his feedbacks which helped me to think out of box in
order to find the solution especially when I was puzzled before going for my second field
visit to Iran.
Many thanks to all the people in Iran, who gave me information, helped me to conduct
interviews or participated in my interviews. Special thanks to Dr. Salavitabr, Dr. Hashemi,
Mr Arabour, Dr. Nazaridoust, and Dr. Morid. It would be impossible to conduct the
interviews without help and support of them.
At last, but not least, my very special thanks goes to my husband, Onno, who not only
supported me achieving the dream of studying master, but also inspired me to do my thesis in
water management by continuously talking about water. Without his support I could not
organize my second field visit in Iran; and thanks to my family, family in law, and friends for
keeping me motivated and calming down me in stressful times.
iii
iv
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1.
2.
3.
Introduction ................................................................................................................... 1
1.1.
Problem statement ................................................................................................... 2
1.2.
Research objective and research question ................................................................ 6
1.3.
Methodology........................................................................................................... 6
1.4.
Relevance ............................................................................................................... 8
1.5.
Structure ................................................................................................................. 8
A Sustainable Water Allocation Regime for ULB ........................................................ 11
2.1.
The critical situation of Urumia Lake .................................................................... 12
2.2.
Increasing demand for water ................................................................................. 14
2.3.
Decreasing water availability ................................................................................ 15
2.4.
Towards a sustainable water allocation regime in ULB ......................................... 16
Scientific Background and Methodology ..................................................................... 21
3.1.
Socio-technical systems approach ......................................................................... 21
3.2.
Review on conflict analysis methods ..................................................................... 23
3.2.1.
3.3.
4.
Methodology......................................................................................................... 29
3.3.1.
Research approach and strategy...................................................................... 29
3.3.2.
Data collection methods and sources .............................................................. 30
Urumia Lake Basin ...................................................................................................... 37
4.1.
5.
Criteria for choosing the graph model for conflict resolution .......................... 28
System’s components ............................................................................................ 37
4.1.1.
Nature ............................................................................................................ 37
4.1.2.
Hardware ....................................................................................................... 40
4.1.3.
Orgware ......................................................................................................... 44
4.1.4.
Software ........................................................................................................ 50
4.2.
Interaction between system components ................................................................ 51
4.3.
System’s environment ........................................................................................... 53
4.3.1.
Social environment ........................................................................................ 54
4.3.2.
Natural environment ...................................................................................... 57
Graph Model for Conflict Resolution........................................................................... 59
5.1.
First phase_ an integrated water management plan ................................................ 59
5.2.
Second phase_ water allocation for the lake .......................................................... 63
5.3.
Third phase_ providing water for the lake ............................................................. 65
v
6.
Conclusions and recommendations .............................................................................. 71
6.1.
Scientific contribution ........................................................................................... 76
6.2.
Recommendations for practitioners ....................................................................... 77
6.3.
Limitations ............................................................................................................ 78
6.4.
Future research...................................................................................................... 79
References .......................................................................................................................... 81
Appendices ......................................................................................................................... 87
Appendix A: CIWP Management Plan-version 2010 ....................................................... 87
Appendix B: Interview protocol and summary of interviews ........................................... 97
Interview part 1 ............................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined.
Interview part 2 ............................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined.
vi
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1- Lake Urumia basin with the border of provinces .................................................... 3
Figure 2- Thesis outline regarding the research questions ...................................................... 9
Figure 3- Golmankhaneh Port-WA ...................................................................................... 13
Figure 4- The structure of national and regional committees ................................................ 18
Figure 5- The LTS approach used in the research ................................................................ 23
Figure 6- Application of graph model for conflict resolution ............................................... 27
Figure 7- Classification of research strategies ...................................................................... 30
Figure 8- Sub-basins and main rivers of the ULB ................................................................ 39
Figure 9- Distribution of mines in Lake Urumia Basin ........................................................ 42
Figure 10- Shahid Kalantari highway .................................................................................. 43
Figure 11- The location of some of the railroad stations and ports ....................................... 44
Figure 12- The components’ interaction .............................................................................. 52
Figure 13- Roadmap towards a sustainable water allocation for ULB .................................. 74
Figure 14- Plans that save water for different organizations ... Error! Bookmark not defined.
Figure 15- Categorization of the executive plans ................... Error! Bookmark not defined.
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1- The average of annual water inflow to the lake ...................................................... 14
Table 2- The population and growth rate in the ULB between 1986 and 2006 ..................... 14
Table 3- Water demand in the ULB after exploitation of developement plans in year 2021.. 15
Table 4- Solution concepts and human behavior .................................................................. 26
Table 5- Search terms .......................................................................................................... 30
Table 6- Methodology used to answer the research questions .............................................. 34
Table 7- The amount of dams for three provinces in ULB based.......................................... 40
Table 8- Distribution of regulated water between different sectors ...................................... 41
Table 9- Industrial units' share in the Basin 2007 ................................................................. 41
Table 10- The executive plans regarding the provincial DOEs ............................................. 45
Table 11- The executive plans regarding the provincial Department of Jihad-e- Agriculture 46
Table 12- Executive plans regarding the provincial water boards......................................... 47
Table 13- Distribution of age in the rural areas of the basin ................................................. 54
Table 14- Distribution of employed people in rural and urban areas in 1986 and 2006......... 55
Table 15- decision makers and their actions for the first phase ............................................ 60
Table 16- The feasible states for the first phase ................................................................... 60
Table 17- Weighing option from each decision maker point of view for the first phase ....... 61
Table 18- Preferences of each decision maker towards the possible outcomes for the first
phase ................................................................................................................................... 61
Table 19- decision makers and their actions for the second phase ........................................ 63
Table 20- Feasible states for the second phase ..................................................................... 64
Table 21- Preferences of each decision maker towards the possible outcomes for the second
phase ................................................................................................................................... 64
vii
Table 22- An overview on the existing withdrawals and water allocated to three provinces in
ULB .................................................................................................................................... 65
Table 23- decision makers and their possible actions ........................................................... 67
Table 24- Feasible states for the third phase ........................................................................ 67
Table 25- Preferences of each decision maker towards the possible outcomes for the third
phase ................................................................................................................................... 68
Table 26- Allocated water between provinces and the lake in 2011 ..................................... 73
Table 27- Actions for building a sustainable water allocation for ULB ................................ 76
Table 28- List of respondents for part 1 ................................. Error! Bookmark not defined.
Table 29- List of respondents for part 2 ................................. Error! Bookmark not defined.
Table 30- Importance of the executive plans proposed by water boards Error! Bookmark not
defined.
Table 31- Importance of the executive plans proposed by DOEs ......... Error! Bookmark not
defined.
Table 32- Importance of the executive plans proposed by departments of Jihad-e- agriculture
............................................................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined.
Table 33- Requirements for implementation of executive plans ........... Error! Bookmark not
defined.
viii
LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
BCM
C
CIWP
DOE
EA
EIA
g/l
LTS
MCM
mm
m/s
STS
ULB
WA
WWF
Billion Cubic Meters
Centigrade
Conservation of Iranian Wetlands Project
Department of Environment
East Azarbaijan
Environmental Impact Assessment
Gram per liter
Large Technical Systems
Million Cubic Meters
Millimeter
Meter per second
Socio-technical Systems
Urumia Lake Basin
West Azarbaijan
World Wildlife Fund
ix
x
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
INTRODUCTION
1. INTRODUCTION
Increasing pressure on freshwater is affected by two factors: increasing demand for water and
changes in the timing and intensity of precipitation as a result of climate change. Population
growth is one of the key factors affecting water demand through increased consumption of
water for domestic purposes, such as drinking, bathing, washing clothes, or preparing food.
The development of water supply, such as using pipes instead of wells has led to increased
consumption. Higher living standards have also resulted in increased demand of water per
person. Furthermore, water consumption in the agricultural sector has risen to match food
requirements of a growing population. Lastly, the development of industrial cities and towns
puts a further strain on water supplies (United Nations, 2000; Anisfeld, 2010).
There is demand for lakes, rivers, and underground reservoirs to be filled with water so
society could benefit from tourism, fishing, navigation, and for environmental values. The
requirement for reserving water for these purposes becomes more important especially when
local economies count on these activities. Defining environmental objectives and making
rules for environmental flow have become more necessary as the water behavior, its
interactions and the environment and its needs are understood. There are finite amounts of
renewable freshwater resources available in each region. The continued withdrawal from
these resources will damage the ecosystem of the region at first, but finally the whole
resource may become depleted which leads to social tension. If we do not manage our water
usage in more efficient and environmental ways we will face a water crisis (United Nations,
2000; Lenton & Muller, 2009).
A considerable volume of water that is used to meet agricultural, urban, and industrial needs
returns to water bodies through drainage and/or infiltration. However, its quality is
significantly affected. The water bodies comprise saline or fresh lakes, wetlands, rivers,
groundwater, and estuaries. Pollution from diffuse and point sources is reducing the access to
freshwater. Diffuse pollution occurs when potentially polluting substances leak into surface
waters and groundwater because of rainfall, surface runoff, and soil infiltration, for example,
nutrients and pesticides in run-off from agricultural land. Point source pollution refers to the
discharge of wastewater, drainage outflows and storm water from agricultural, industrial and
urban sources. The World Water Commission (2000) identified fresh water as “a scarce
commodity” and “a basic need” and therefore the sustainable supply and control of
freshwater as one of the major challenges of the century (Anisfeld, 2010; Lenton & Muller,
2009; United Nations, 2000).
So due to the above discussion, development of an effective water allocation scheme
becomes critical as competition and eventual conflict for fresh water arises as a response to
the increase in water demand and decrease in water availability. In general, the objective of
water allocation is to maximize the benefits of water use for society and protect water
resources and the environment.
The first three sections of this chapter present the research problem, the objective and the
research questions. In the fourth section, the methodologies used to answer the research
1
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
INTRODUCTION
questions are described. The scientific and managerial relevance of the work are explained in
the fifth section. Finally, section six presents the structure of this report regarding the
research questions and the chapters in which they are addressed.
1.1. Problem statement
Lake Urumia is a hypersaline lake that lies in the center of a closed drainage basin between
provinces of East Azarbaijan (EA) and West Azarbaijan (WA) in the northwest of Iran.
Figure 1 shows the location of the lake indicating the borders of the provinces. There are
around 561, mostly small, islands in the lake which are well-known as breeding grounds for
water birds such as white pelican and flamingo. Furthermore, two species of threatened
mammals, the “Armenian Wild Sheep” and “Persian Fallow Deer”, have been introduced to
some of the islands within the lake in different periods between 1895 and 1989. The lake
including five islands (Kaboodan, Arezu, Ashk, Espir and Doghuzlar) has been designated as
a National Park since 19752 because of its unique natural and ecological features (Yekom1,
2002; Yekom3, 2002; Yekom2, 2002).
Lake Urumia has also been selected as one of the 50 international biosphere reserves by
UNESCO in 19773. In addition, the lake is surrounded by about 30 wetlands, mainly located
on the southern part of the lake. The wetlands recharge the aquifers and prevent salt-water
intrusion from the lake into those aquifers. The entire lake plus the satellite wetlands and
other habitats form an ecological zone in the basin. Moreover, the lake including its satellite
wetlands support biodiversity because brine shrimp, Artemia serve as food for many water
birds which use the wetlands and islands as their breeding ground (Yekom3, 2002; CIWP1,
2008; Pandam1, 2005).
The lake and its wetlands have several important characteristics. One of the most significant
characteristics of the lake and its satellite wetlands is to trap and store sediments, nutrients
and pollutants from river inflows and prevent them from spreading into the wider
environment. The water flowing into the lake and the wetlands contains a considerable
amount of nutrients, sediments and residues of toxic chemicals from agricultural and
industrial activities in upstream and surrounding areas. The dense communities of green and
blue-green algae in the lake and the wetland plants absorb the nutrients. The sediments that
are deposited on the bottom of the lake trap part of the chemicals and therefore the lake and
wetlands act as an important sink for pollutants. The lake including wetlands also contributes
in regulating temperature and humidity of the surrounding area, thereby making it suitable for
agriculture. Finally, the beautiful landscape of the lake can be considered as one of the main
attractions of the two adjoining provinces for tourism (CIWP1, 2008; Yekom1, 2002; CIWP,
2010).
1
Based on Yekom1, 2005 there are 102 islands inside the lake.
Yekom1, 2005 indicates that the lake was designated in 1963.
3
Yekom1, 2005 mentions that the lake was selected in 1972.
2
2
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
INTRODUCTION
Figure 1- Lake Urumia basin with the border of provinces
Source 1: (CIWP, 2010)
Unfortunately, the water level in Lake Urumia started falling because of a severe drought
during 1999-2001, but its decline has continued after that period. The lake’s water level
dropped to 1271.6m in 2009 whereas its long term annual average is 1275.86m. In addition,
an ecological water level of 1274.1m is estimated in which the lake can sustain its ecological
and hydrological functioning. This means that the water level was more than 4m below its
long term annual average and 2.5m below its ecological level. It indicates that the lake is in a
critical condition. The salinity of the lake has increased a lot, leading to a decrease in the
amount of Artemia and as a consequence also decreases in the number of migratory birds.
Besides the ecological challenges that will be described in section 2.1, there are other
concerns regarding the inhabitants. As an example, farmers in the villages nearby the lake
had to cease planting since the water had become too salty for their crops. Also, parts of the
lake have dried up and if this situation continues, wind will disperse the salt particles, which
is a potential threat to human health. Finally, the climate of the area will become less suitable
for agriculture because the lake and wetlands can no longer support it (Hashemi, 2008;
CIWP, 2010).
3
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
INTRODUCTION
The preliminary studies pointed to the drought as the major reason (67%) in creating the
situation explained above. But further studies indicated the contribution of drought to be
50%. Increasing water use as a result of population growth and execution of the national
development plans in the region is identified as the second reason. The national development
plans are the national policies and strategies defined in a five year plan. The development
plans have been started from 1989, after Iraq-Iran war (Respondent9, 2011; Respondent5,
2011; Yekom3, 2002).
The main objectives of the first development plan were to reconstruct war damages and
economic growth with emphasis on increasing self-sufficiency in the strategic crops.
Governmental support because of a good potential for farming in the Urumia Lake Basin
(ULB) led to extensive developments in the region especially in the agricultural sector. Thus,
WA has become one of the main centers for agriculture, Kurdistan in animal husbandry and
agriculture, and EA in industry (Yekom3, 2002; GOK, 2007; Jame-jam, 2012).
Environmental issues were part of the main policies in the second development plan, but the
main objective was still focused on economic growth. Many regulations and policies were
developed for protection and conservation of the environment in this period. Although,
according to the report by Yekom (2002), both provinces of EA and WA gave priority to
economic growth in industry, agriculture, and hydrology over the environment. The reason
was that they believed economic growth and environmental preservation are incompatible.
Increase in the lake water level between 1988 and 1998 could be considered as an incentive
for the provincial water boards to enhance their investments on water development plans. The
author found little information regarding that period, but she saw the enforcement of dike,
part of the causeway, from that period during visiting the lake (Yekom2, 2002; Yekom3,
2002).
The economic growth in EA and WA has improved living conditions of locals through
increase in their income, reduced unemployment rate, and better organized cities and
transportation systems. However, it had a negative impact on ecology of the system such as
change in land use in the wetlands as a result of increase in lands under cultivation.
Moreover, the quality of water has decreased due to release of wastewater from industries
and agriculture into the rivers. The construction of some roads, ports, and railroads in the
basin is regarded as a disturbance for the wildlife and natural beauty. There are also some
discussions regarding the effect of causeway, Kalantary Highway on the ecosystem of the
lake as the amount of water exchange between the north and south part of the lake has been
reduced. Furthermore, operation of the fish ponds in the basin uses scarce water and reduces
its quality. In addition, the non-native fish species may escape and endanger the native fish
communities (Yekom2, 2002).
Some policies in the third development plan were directly related to the management of Lake
Urumia. Many researches were performed in this period to study the ecological condition of
the lake or to develop an integrated water management plan for the ULB. Although, it should
be noticed that severe drought along with the fall in the lake water level occurred in this
4
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
INTRODUCTION
period as well. Besides many studies and researches that took place in this period, no action
was taken to resolve the critical situation of the lake. One of the main reasons might be the
uncertainty about the validity of data from the actors’ perspective.
Finally, the fourth development plan specified explicitly development and implementation of
an ecosystem management plan for the ULB. The development of an integrated water
management plan by Conservation of Iranian Wetlands Project (CIWP) was the initiative
towards the realization of the national development plan. The project has succeeded to
manage a participatory decision making process to get a minimum water requirement of 3.1
BCM for the lake as water rights, allocate the runoff for normal years between three
provinces and the lake and satellite wetlands, and achieve an approved management plan. At
the moment, there is a negotiation process deciding on water rights of three provinces and the
lake for droughts. Furthermore, the 24 executive plans aim to provide some part of the water
rights to the lake, further information for decision makers, and an appropriate monitoring
system within 5 years. The implementation of these plans has started since 2011-20124.
EA and WA need to reduce their water use to be within their water rights, but the water
allocated to Kurdistan province5 is larger than their current water consumption. The author
did not find any information regarding how Kurdistan will plan its extra water right. It seems
that water trading is not a common concept in Iran and people are reluctant to do it. It is
worth to mention that Kurdistan is still involved in the 24 executive plans for saving water.
Besides the executive plans, EA and WA have an extra plan for bringing water from other
regions. The water will be sent either directly to the lake or will be used in other sectors such
as agriculture and industry. This has caused controversy because transferring water from
another region to the lake may have negative consequences on ecology. Moreover, both
provinces have to stop their projects for dams under study and those under construction, for
which less than 50% of the project is completed, since October 2010. The Department of
Environment (DOE) also has prohibited the construction of any new industry that consumes a
lot of water in the basin (Respondent8, 2011).
So due to the above discussion, the conflicting claims remain on reducing water consumption
in the provinces and how this reduction can be implemented. The availability of budget is
identified as the main criteria for implementation of executive plans which aim to provide the
water rights of the lake and satellite wetlands. Furthermore, it should be reminded that actors
gave priority to the economic growth over the environmental conservation. However, it has
become clearer for them that if the situation continues the consequences will not only be
ecological damage. Therefore, introduction of a method which can study the behavior of the
actors/decision makers and their preferences over the possible outcomes of the process might
help the mediators to identify the necessary strategies toward a resolution. Chapter five will
focus on this issue.
4
Iranian year usually begins on 21 March of the Gregorian calendar.
ULB is shared between three provinces of EA, WA and Kurdistan while LU is only shared between EA and
WA.
5
5
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
INTRODUCTION
1.2. Research objective and research question
The main objective of the research is to contribute to the development of a roadmap towards
a sustainable water resources allocation situation for ULB. To achieve the objective, the
following main research question and its corresponding sub-questions will be addressed.
How to create a sustainable water resource allocation situation for Lake Urumia?
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
What are the problems with Lake Urumia?
What is the problem with water resources allocation situation in the region?
What are the conflicting claims amongst the actors involved?
What are the possible strategies to handle the conflicting claims?
What is a feasible method for this type of research and policy questions?
The main research question refers to development of a roadmap by identifying the steps that
have to be taken to achieve a sustainable water allocation situation for the ULB. To answer
the main research question, five sub-questions are formulated. The first sub-question
investigates the negative impacts from reduced water supply to the lake. The rationale for a
sustainable water resource allocation in the basin will be studied by means of second subquestion. The third sub-question addresses the interests and possible actions of the actors
involved in the process of water allocation. Furthermore, the fourth sub-question aims to
analyze the conflict in order to identify the necessary strategies which help to get a more
preferable outcome. Finally, the last sub-question evaluates the sufficiency of methods used
to answer the research questions.
1.3. Methodology
A system approach and a conflict analysis method have been used in order to provide
answers to the sub-questions. As it was mentioned in section1.1, to identify the necessary
steps toward a sustainable water allocation for the ULB, there is need for providing a clear
problem statement. Enhancing the basic understanding of the ULB would help to define the
problem in the region. Since ULB is a complex system including economic, technical, social,
and ecological issues, application of a system approach seemed to be an appropriate method
for gaining insight about the problem in ULB. Generally, a system approach helps to describe
a multi-disciplinary problem/situation in a structured way. It does not focus on problems and
solutions, but on the system in which interactions take place. The application of a system
approach will not only enhance the understanding of a problem, but it also may result in
identifying the conflicting claims amongst the stakeholders involved and possible options to
resolve the conflicts (Olsson & Sjostedt, 2004).
A Socio-technical systems (STS) or Large-technical systems (LTS) approach has been
developed based on the existing concepts in the definition of LTS presented by Hughes
(1989). The actor perspective of the LTS approach is recommended as a concept that can
provide insight into the new challenges posed by actors in water management. Participation
of stakeholders/actors has become a key factor in managing water resources allocation, but
6
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
INTRODUCTION
involving them in the decision making process requires new theoretical concepts and
frameworks. However, the STS/LTS approach has hardly been applied to water management
and has mostly been focused on infrastructure such as railroad systems (Ravesteijn, Hermans,
& van der Vleuten, 2002).
The following questions were formulated, based on the system approached used, in order to
provide answers to the sub-questions 1 and 3.
A. What are the components of the system?
B. How do the components interact?
C. Which environmental factors influence the system?
Moreover, the graph model for conflict resolution as a conflict analysis method has been
applied to model and analyze the identified disputes among the stakeholders involved. The
aim of using this method is to provide an answer to the sub-question 4. The method was
selected after a literature survey on the game theories and conflict analysis methods. The
criteria for choosing the method are provided in section 3.2.1.
The final report from CIWP shows that a system approach has been used in that work as well
because a multi-disciplinary approach has been taken into account. Moreover, process of
decision making includes the participation of stakeholders involved which is one of the
requirements of a system approach (Olsson & Sjostedt, 2004). One of the first questions that
came up for the author was ‘how to shorten the process of decision making?’. However, it
should be noted that the CIWP project is within its plan. The author sought for a way to
shorten the process of achieving consensus about conflicting interests. Conflict analysis
methods focus on studying the behavior of actors involved in a conflict including their
possible options and preferences. Thus, the application of them will result in determining the
possible outcome of a process and consequently identifying the necessary strategies for
gaining a more preferable outcome.
However, the problem had to be defined more clearly before the graph model for conflict can
be applied. To use the graph model for conflict resolution, three following components are
required: decision makers, the possible actions for each decision maker, and preferences of
each decision maker. This helps to simplify a conflict and therefore make it easier for
understanding. It has been assumed that the graph model will be used by a representative of a
group involved in the conflict. A person who is concerned about the conflict may also use
this model. This means that the developer will be quite familiar with the conflict. The LTS
approach may aid a person with limited understanding of the conflict to gain the required
input information for the graph model for conflict in a structured way (Fang, Hipel, &
Kilgour, 1993)6.
6
The assumption is mentioned on page 5.
7
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
INTRODUCTION
1.4. Relevance
So due to above discussion, from a scientific perspective, the research is investigating the
effectiveness of the STS/LTS approach in providing a clear problem statement for Lake
Urumia. The approach may help to define the conflicting claims and identify the interests and
attitudes of the stakeholders involved which consequently lead to identification of their
preferences regarding the possible outcomes of the dispute. Therefore, the result of the work
will show if the application of the STS approach can contribute to both modeling and
analyzing part of the graph model for conflict.
From a managerial perspective, the research may provide a new insight into the problem
statement related to the lake basin. Furthermore, it will introduce the graph model for conflict
to the mediators involved in the process that helps to identify the necessary trade-offs to
achieve a more preferred outcome from the process. Finally, the research may highlight new
strategies for achieving a sustainable water allocation for the ULB.
1.5. Structure
The structure of the research is explained below:
 Chapter 2 clarifies the urgency of a sustainable water resource allocation situation for
the ULB. The factors, which put the current water allocation in the basin under
pressure, will be studied. This leads to identify the necessary steps for achieving a
sustainable water allocation in the basin.
 Chapter 3 covers the relevant scientific background found in the literature search
regarding the existing conflict resolution methods and socio-technical systems. In
addition, it explains the research methodology used to answer research questions and
sub-questions including data collection and analysis with the description of its
sources.
 Chapter 4 describes the current situation of Lake Urumia. The LTS approach is used
in this chapter to structure the current situation.
 Chapter 5 shows the application of the graph model for conflict resolution to the case
and results which are achieved from its analysis. To model the conflict in this chapter,
information presented in the previous chapter are used.
 Chapter 6 presents the answers to the main research question and sub-questions by
summarizing important points based on the results of the previous chapters. It also
includes limitations of the work and recommendations for future research.
8
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
INTRODUCTION
Chapter 2
A sustainable water
allocation for ULB
SQ 2
Chapter 4
Urumia Lake Basin
Chapter 1
Introduction
Main RQ
SQ 1 & 3
Question A
Chapter 4.1
Question B
Chapter 4.2
Question C
Chapter 6
Conclusion
Chapter 4.3
Chapter 3
Scientific Background
& Methodology
Chapter 5
A Graph Model For
Conflict
SQ 4
SQ 5
Main RQ: Main Research Question: “ How to create a sustainable water resources allocation situation for Lake
Urumia?”
SQ: Sub-question
SQ 1: What are the problems with Lake Urumia?
SQ 2: What is the problem with water resources allocation situation in the region?
SQ 3: What are the conflicting claims amongst the actors involved?
SQ 4: What are the possible strategies to handle the conflicting claims?
SQ 5: What is a feasible method for this type of research and policy questions?
Question A: What are the components of the system?
Question B: How do the components interact?
Question C: Which environment factors influence the system?
Figure 2- Thesis outline regarding the research questions
Figure 2 demonstrates the order research questions are addressed in chapters/sections. The
main research question and sub-questions are derived from the problem statement described
in chapter 1 and are answered in chapter 6 through the application of the LTS approach and
graph model for conflict resolution methods introduced in chapter 3. The first 4 sub-questions
are addressed in chapter 2, 4, and 5 while sub-question 5 is derived from chapter 3 and will
be answered by the results of chapter 4 and 5. Finally, chapter six provides the answers to the
main research question and sub-questions.
9
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
10
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
A SUSTAINABLE WATER ALLOCATION REGIME FOR ULB
2. A SUSTAINABLE WATER ALLOCATION REGIME FOR ULB
Sharing water between users is the simplest definition for water allocation. It is important to
allocate water because quantity and quality of water resources are affected by human
activities. In general, water allocation aims to maximize the benefits of water to society.
These benefits can be classified into the three following categories: social, economic, and
environmental. Moreover, it is important that water will be allocated in an equitable,
efficient, and sustainable manner among the users (United Nations, 2000).
Social benefits are associated with availability of water for the whole population of a region
for drinking and domestic uses. For this purpose, not only the quantity but also the quality of
the water has to be taken into account. Allocating water equitably refers to providing water to
all sectors of the society, existing and potential users, as well as the environment.
Furthermore, it indicates the access of water to the poorest sector of society in a reasonable
price (United Nations, 2000).
Besides that, social benefits are also connected to the access of water for producing food
including irrigation. As irrigation plays an important role in providing food for the growing
population, allocating enough water for irrigation becomes an important objective in many
countries. It should be noted that water has also a key role in aquaculture (United Nations,
2000).
Economic benefits refer to the importance of water for economic developments in regional
and local levels including food production, industrial output, and mining. Water allocation
aims to balance the requirements of new users, often in large scale, and traditional users in
the same region. Efficiency is associated to this category which indicates that water should be
allocated to uses with higher value of production. However, it might be in conflict with social
benefits in some cases, for example with allocating water to locals with traditional agriculture
(United Nations, 2000).
Efficiency may also refer to the way that water transfer from its source to the users. In this
case, water allocation aims to enhance the efficiency of the equipments or routes used for
transporting water from its source to the location of use. Finally, efficiency may refer to the
location of use and the way that water is consumed by the user (United Nations, 2000).
Environmental benefits indicate the need of ecosystems for water to maintain their values and
diversities. So, the objective of water allocation for this category is to maintain the water
quality, ecosystem values provided by water, and to support in-stream habitat for aquatic
animals and fish. Sustainability is linked with this category with focus on environmental
sustainability with the intention of ensuring that water resources will remain usable for the
need of future generations (United Nations, 2000).
The chapter provides insight on the urgency for a sustainable water allocation in the ULB by
describing the increasing strain on the current water allocation. The pressure is driven by
three factors: the critical situation of Lake Urumia and its satellite wetlands, increasing water
11
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
A SUSTAINABLE WATER ALLOCATION REGIME FOR ULB
demand, and decreasing water supply. At last, an overview is provided on the actions taken
into account toward a sustainable water allocation regime for the basin.
2.1. The critical situation of Urumia Lake
As mentioned in the introduction part, Lake Urumia is facing severe threats to its ecosystem.
The drop in Lake water level resulted in increased salinity. The high salinity led to a sharp
decrease in the population of Artemia in the lake. One of the respondents mentioned that
there used to be 25 to 30 Artemia in one liter of water, but now there is not even one per liter.
As a result, migratory water birds do not come anymore to the lake because food is scarce. In
addition, the lake is too salty now for the birds and salt crystals will form on their feathers
rendering them unable to fly. Some of them fly to fish ponds to find food, where fish farmers
shoot them to prevent the killing and wounding of their fishes (Yekom1, 2002).
As migratory birds especially flamingos are part of the beautiful and unique ecosystem of the
basin which attract tourists, it has negatively influenced the tourism industry as well. Besides
the loss of some part of the unique ecosystem, there is much less active mud, another
attraction for tourists who visited the lake in past. They used to take advantages of its
therapeutic properties while enjoying of the beautiful view of the lake and its surroundings.
The color of water in the lake has changed to red. There is no known reason for changing the
color of the water (Respondent1, 2011; Respondent2, 2011; Yekom2, 2002).
The water has receded back 20 km in the south part of the lake. Consequently, the small
islands below Ashk Island have joined the main land. Furthermore, some of the wildlife
living on those islands dies because they lost their way in the dried up part of the lake and
could not survive without food and water. Some other islands are facing water shortage and
therefore the provincial DOE of WA has to provide water for the wildlife on those islands
(Respondent12, 2011).
The ports located around the lake lost their functionality due to drop in the lake water level.
Many people lost their jobs, further development had to be canceled and tourist facilities at
these ports have often been abandoned (Yekom2, 2002). Figure 3 shows a part of
Golmankhaneh Port in West Azarbaijan in November 2011 with a coastal village for tourists.
Farming lands close to the lake have also been negatively influenced because the
groundwater, which is the only source of water for agriculture, became salty leading to lower
crop yield and therefore many farmers ceased to plans their crops. Moreover, if the lake dries
up, wind will blow the salt particles to the surrounding urban areas which can cause lung
diseases. One of the reasons that this has not happened in the dried up parts yet is because the
remaining salt is hard, but the hard salt will crumble over time. The remaining salt layer on
the surface of the lake may increase the effect of ultraviolet light that is harmful for human
skin as well (Respondent1, 2011; Respondent12, 2011; Respondent9, 2011).
12
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
A SUSTAINABLE WATER ALLOCATION REGIME FOR ULB
Figure 3- Golmankhaneh Port-WA
Source 2: Author, Dec 2011
Theoretically, a lake with this area can affect the climate condition of its surrounding with a
radius of 50km by moderating the temperature. This functionality will disappear if the lake
continues to become smaller. If the lake gets smaller, the humidity in the surrounding area
will decrease, leading to less precipitation (Respondent12, 2011; Respondent9, 2011;
Respondent5, 2011).
The sediments and residues of toxic chemicals from agricultural and industrial activities wash
into the lake have accumulated and locked into the lake. Any disturbance caused by dredging
or mining, or if the sediments are picked up by the wind when the lake dries out, could have
major consequences on human health and the environment (CIWP1, 2008; Yekom1, 2002)
A minimum amount of 3100 MCM water inflow to the lake has been estimated to be required
in order to ensure the ecological and hydrological functioning of the lake. The water inflow to
the lake is provided by surface water from 17 permanent rivers, 12 seasonal rivers and 39
floodways, groundwater, and direct precipitation. Different amounts have been reported as an
average of water inflow into the lake by the surface and ground water. Table 1 illustrates a
summary of different reports (CIWP, 2010; Hashemi, 2008).
Hashemi (2008) indicates the result of the report by Yekom in 2005 as the most accurate
estimation of the long term average annual inflow to the lake. According to his paper, an
updated figure of annually 4578.69 MCM has been chosen considering the statistics of recent
years (1966-2004). It should be noted that there are some years such as 2000-2001 where an
average inflow of 341.20 MCM to the lake has been recorded.
The critical situation of the lake indicates the lake did not receive the average amount of
inflow for some years due to the severe droughts and increase in water consumption in the
basin. Hashemi (2012) mentions in his PhD an estimation of about 6927 MCM as the annual
average of surface runoff, but later on explains that the annual average of natural runoff over
the period 1969-2010 has been calculated to be about 5000 MCM.
13
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
A SUSTAINABLE WATER ALLOCATION REGIME FOR ULB
Table 1- The average of annual water inflow to the lake
Source 3: (Yekom 2, 2005)
Reports
Water consultants of Ministry of Energy
1994
Water research center 1996
Iranian water resources management 1998
Jamab Consulting Company 1998
Yekom 2002
Yekom 2005
The
statistical
period
Surface
water
(MCM)
Groundwater
(MCM)
Total
1966-1992
5300
N/A7
5300
1966-1992
1964-1994
1963-1992
1966-1992
1966-2002
4948
4816
6900
5316
4643.83
500
226
210.7
500
210.7
5448
5042.87
7110.7
5816
4854.53
2.2. Increasing demand for water
The increase of water demand in the basin is due to population, industry, and agriculture
growth. The population of the ULB has grown from 3.6 to 4.9 million people between 1986
and 2006 while the rate of growth has decreased from 1.8 to 1.1 percent. The population is
estimated to grow to 5.8 million people in 2021 and 7.5 million people in 2041 (Water and
Wastewater Macro Planning Bureau, 2010). The report by Mahab Ghodss Consulting
Company estimates the water demand for domestic use will rise from 290 MCM in 2006 to
549 MCM in 2041. Table 2 shows the population and the growth rate in the ULB between
1986 and 2006.
Table 2- The population and growth rate in the ULB between 1986 and 2006
Source 4: (Water and Wastewater Macro Planning Bureau, 2010)
Population
1986
1996
2006
Urumia 3658534 4390984 4911280
Growth rate
1986-1996
total urban rural
1.8
2.7
0.5
1996-2006
total urban rural
1.1
1.7
-0.1
However, the report By Yekom (2005) indicates a total amount of 314.2 million cubic meters
(MCM) for the domestic water use based on a population of 4.8 million people in 2002. The
report estimates a population growth to more than 7 million in 2021 and consequently an
increase in water demand for domestic use up to 587.7 MCM of which 415.7 MCM of that
will be provided by the surface water and the rest by the groundwater. Although the reports
predict different amounts, both indicate an increase in population growth and consequently an
increase in the water demand for domestic use.
Industry is mainly established around the cities especially Urumia and Tabriz. The water
consumption of this section was reported to be 37.5 MCM in 2002. However, within a few
years nine more industrial cities will be added to the existing ones. It is estimated that water
7
The report only calculates the surface water inflow to the lake.
14
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
A SUSTAINABLE WATER ALLOCATION REGIME FOR ULB
demand for the industry section will rise to 98.23 MCM in 2021 of which 93.9 MCM will be
provided by surface water and the rest by groundwater (Yekom9, 2005).
Agriculture is one of the main activities in the ULB especially in the villages due to its
climatic and social conditions. Around 94% of water consumption in the basin results from
agriculture sector in which more than 64% is provided by surface water and the rest by
groundwater. The agriculture sector is the biggest user of groundwater within the basin. The
amount of water withdrawal has been increased from 1046 MCM in 1986 to 2060 MCM in
2006 (Mahab-Ghodss1, 2011; CIWP1, 2008; Pandam2, 2005).
There are 335.5 thousand hectares used by agriculture requiring 3.35 BCM water in 2002.
More than fifty percent which is 1.88 BCM of this water is provided by surface water and the
rest (1.47 BCM) by underground water. It is estimated that by exploitation of, total area under
cultivation will increase to 534.8 thousands of hectares and consequently the demand for
water will increase to 5.03 BCM. About 3.65 BCM of this demand will be provided by the
surface water and about 1.37 BCM by the groundwater (Yekom9, 2005).
Aquaculture is one of the activities in the agriculture sector, but the water consumption for
this activity has been calculated separately in the report by Yekom Consulting Company
(2005). The water consumption has been reported 5.06 MCM in 2002 of which the most of
this amount has been provided by the surface water. It is estimated that the demand will
increase to 33.13 MCM in 2021whereas all of the amount will be provided by the surface
water.
Table 3 presents a summary of the demand for water consumption in the three sections of
agriculture, drinking, and industry for years 2002 and 2021.
Table 3- Water demand in the ULB after exploitation of developement plans in year 2021
Sector
Agriculture
Aquaculture
Drinking
Industry
Total
2002 (MCM)
Surface
Groundwater
water
1880
1470
9
NA
115.2
199
32.1
5.4
2027.3
1674.4
Total
3350
5.06
314.2
37.5
3706.76
2021 (MCM)
Surface
Groundwater
water
3650
1370
33.13
0
415.7
172
93.9
4.33
4192.73
1546.33
Total
50278
33.13
587.7
98.23
5746.06
2.3. Decreasing water availability
More frequent and severe droughts as a result of climate change had a major role in
decreasing water availability in the basin. Moreover, factors such as higher temperature and
lower humidity increase the effect of drought. The ninth volume of the report by Yekom
8
The total is more than the sum of two columns, but author has decided to use the figure given in the report.
The report does not specify the contribution of surface water and groundwater in providing the water demand
in 2002.
9
15
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
A SUSTAINABLE WATER ALLOCATION REGIME FOR ULB
(2005) specifies an average of 455.84 MCM water flow into the lake between 1998 and 2001
whereas the long term average of 4643.83 has been reported in the report. Moreover, the forth
volume of the report explains that drought has happened between 6 and 8 years in different
parts of the lake in the study of a period of 30 years. In addition, the report estimates that
drought will occur every 6 years.
Besides drought, polluted water is another factor affecting the availability of water in this
area. As mentioned in the introduction part, the lake’s shrinking has resulted in higher
salinity. Moreover, there is less water entering the lake and its wetlands which indicates less
recharge of aquifers while people are discharging from aquifers at the same rate as in the
past. This results in salt intrusion to the groundwater and that further decreases the
availability of the water in the region. Since groundwater is the water resource for farming in
the villages close to the lake, farmers could not continue farming anymore (EA-Waterboard,
2011).
Furthermore, the untreated wastewater from the large number of food processing factories,
leather factories, and other industries along with effluent from agricultural lands cause
pollution to the receiving water bodies in the basin and negatively affect the water availability
in the basin. Agriculture has been mainly based on traditional methods using organic
fertilizers. Some modernization took place such as the introduction of artificial fertilizer from
1960. But irrigation systems are often based on tradition for instance they lack a drainage
system in the basin to collect irrigation return flows (Pandam2, 2005; Yekom2, 2002). The
second volume of the report by Yekom (2002) points to 6 MCM untreated waste produced by
industrial units within the basin which reaches the lake at the end.
2.4. Towards a sustainable water allocation regime in ULB
Reviewing the three factors mentioned above, the surface water used in the basin based on
the information presented in table 3 is 3706.76 MCM in 2002. Moreover, the ecological
water requirement for the lake is equal to 3100 MCM while the total surface water available
in the basin is between 5000 and 6927 MCM. So, considering a normal year by an
availability of 6927 MCM, there is no problem. However, if we take the other number there
would be a shortage of 1806.76 MCM water per year which means that the lake cannot get
even its minimum water requirement. It should be noted by execution of all the, the water
consumption in the basin will increase to 5746.06 MCM. In both cases either higher or lower
amount of the available water there would a shortage between 1919.06 to 3846.06 MCM
water in the basin.
Therefore, it can be concluded that the current water allocation regime in Urumia Lake Basin
is under strain because on the one hand, it needs to reduce the water consumption to let more
water enter the lake. On the other hand it needs to provide more water due to growth in the
population and agriculture and its development plans whereas droughts and polluted water
are decreasing water availability.
16
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
A SUSTAINABLE WATER ALLOCATION REGIME FOR ULB
The first step toward a sustainable water allocation for the ULB has been identified as the
creation of an integrated water resources management in the basin because there are three
provinces sharing the existing water resources in the basin. The development and
implementation of a management plan with a focus on ecology and environment for Urumia
Lake was mentioned in the fourth national development plan released on September 2004.
Therefore, CWIP as the representative of DOE has started its work since 2005 to develop an
integrated water management for the ULB in a participatory process including the
stakeholders involved.
The starting point toward a sustainable water allocation is defining a set of objectives to be
able to evaluate the current situation and identify the necessary actions. The management
plan consists of a high-level strategy and an action plan. The strategy consists of a 25 year
vision for Lake Urumia, a goal to achieve the vision and three objectives to be implemented
by the main stakeholders (CIWP, 2010).
25 year vision for Lake Urumia
“Lake Urumia will receive adequate water to sustain an attractive landscape and rich
biodiversity where people and local communities can make wise use of its resources and will
enhance cooperation between the involved provincial organizations.”
Goal
“To establish an ecosystem based management for the lake and its satellite wetlands within
the context of sustainable development with effective involvement of all stakeholders
including local communities.”
Objectives:
1. “To raise awareness of the values of the lake and the satellite wetlands and to enhance
public participation in their management.”
2. “Sustainable management of water resources and land use.”
3. “Conservation of biodiversity and sustainable use of the wetland resources.”
For each objective some key issues were identified. For each issue, targets in short-term
(5year) and long-term (25 year) were determined including the actions that have to be taken.
The list of issues, targets and related activities are shown in appendix A.
The CIWP management plan has been adopted on October 2008 under a Memorandum of
Understanding by the Head of the DOE, the Ministries of Energy and Jidad-e-Agriculture and
the Governors of three provinces and will be implemented from this date. The Memorandum
of Understanding is valid from October 2008 for 25 years unless one of the parties withdraws
formally. Moreover, the management plan has been introduced as the basis of activities
within Lake Urumia basin by the Cabinet on April 2010.
A committee consisting of national committee and regional council was established to
implement the plan. The head of the national committee is the deputy head of the president.
The committee focuses on defining development capacities and coordinating development
activities in the ULB while ensuring sustainability of the lake and its satellite wetlands. The
17
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
A SUSTAINABLE WATER ALLOCATION REGIME FOR ULB
central secretariat of the regional council in WA is accountable for implementation,
evaluation and revision of the management plan at the end of the 5th year10. Moreover, the
council has to report its activities annually. Figure 4 illustrates the structure of national
committee and the regional council.
Figure 4- The structure of national and regional committees
Source: (CIWP, 2010)
The second objective addresses the quantity and quality of water resources in the basin area
while the first objective focuses on increasing the public awareness to enhance their
cooperation for a sustainable water allocation. Finally the third objective aims to develop
plans to sustain the ecological values of the lake and its satellite wetlands. The current water
allocation regime does not specify any rights for the lake which means that in period of
drought the main stakeholder affected by water shortage is the lake. Therefore, the second
step toward a sustainable water allocation in the ULB has been recognized the definition of
water rights of the lake.
The salinity of the lake was chosen as the indicator to calculate a minimum ecological water
requirement for the lake because the Artemia is sensitive to the level of salinity. An optimal
salinity of 240 gram per liter has been calculated for the normal reproduction of Artemia.
10
The chair of the council for the first two years is WA and after that the members will decide who will chair
the council (CIWP, 2010).
18
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
A SUSTAINABLE WATER ALLOCATION REGIME FOR ULB
This means that the lake requires a water level of 1274.1 m above sea level and consequently
an amount of 3086 MCM water inflow. The stakeholders agreed initially with this amount,
but the Ministry of Energy opposed this amount and indicated that based on their calculation
a minimum amount of 3900 MCM water was required to sustain the ecological values of the
lake. However, the stakeholders involved did not agree with the amount proposed by
Ministry of Energy because they were not included in the process of calculation and data
selection (Hashemi, 2012).
Therefore, DOE and CIWP took action for obtaining formal water rights for the Lake Urumia
to initiate the process of water allocation. They presented the minimum water requirement for
the Lake Urumia to the High Water Council. The High Water Council recommended the
figure to the Council of Ministers who approved it as a By-law in 2010. Furthermore, an
average surface runoff of 6927 MCM was agreed to be used for the water allocation process.
However, Ministry of Energy’s calculations showed an amount of 7400 MCM surface runoff
in the basin. Finally, considering an average of 6920 MCM potential water surface and 3100
MCM water rights of the lake, 3700 MCM water was available to be allocated between three
provinces (Hashemi, 2012).
Six criteria were used for allocating water including potential available surface water,
potential area for irrigation, regional domestic product per capita, population, per capita
investment in water, and consumption per capita. The result was indicated 585.1 MCM water
to Kurdistan, 1079.2 MCM to EA, and 2035.6 MCM water to WA (Hashemi, 2012). To
provide an overview on the potential surface water of each province for the readers, we look
at the only data available for the author by Mahab Ghodss Consulting Company (2011) which
presents 1580 MCM water for Kurdistan, 3252 MCM for WA, and 1287 MCM water for EA.
Based on the results of interviews done by the author in 2011, the current water use of
Kurdistan is between 200 and 220 MCM which means that this province have 385 MCM
water left for further allocation. But WA should cut 400 to 500 MCM from its current water
consumption and EA about 200 to 300 MCM. However, it should be noted that the interviews
from different respondents show different amount of water cut for EA. It is mentioned that
EA has released 170 MCM water annually to the lake during the last ten years whereas this
province should provide annually about 210 MCM water to the lake based on its potential
surface water calculated by Mahab Ghodss.
It should be noted that this water allocation has been determined for normal years and a
similar process is taking place to determine the water allocation in the basin for drought. So,
to achieve a sustainable water allocation in the basin, the provinces of WA and EA need to
implement a similar process in their provinces to allocate the water between different sectors
including agriculture, industry, and domestic use. Moreover, these two provinces have to
cancel their development plans that have been completed less than 50%11. Therefore, DOE
has forbidden building industries that consume a lot of water in the basin since 2011. EA and
WA also had to stop their development plans (Respondent12, 2011; Respondent6, 2011).
11
More information about the development plans will be provided in the chapter four.
19
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
20
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
SCIENTIFIC BACKGROUND AND METHODOLOGY
3. SCIENTIFIC BACKGROUND AND METHODOLOGY
The first section of this chapter introduces a socio-technical systems or social construction of
technological systems approach. The second section summarizes the existing conflict analysis
methods used in water allocation with a focus on Graph model for conflict resolution as it
will be used in this research. Moreover, the criteria for selection of graph model for conflict
resolution will be presented at the end of this section.
3.1. Socio-technical systems approach
The LTS or STS approach was mainly developed for studying infrastructural technologies by
Thomas Hughes, well-known as “a founding father” of system approach, in the 1980s. He
used a system perspective in his book Networks of Power: Electrification in Western Society
1880-1930 (1983). Before that, the historical and sociological technology studies mainly
focused on individual inventors and/or isolated technical applications (Joerges, 1988;
Ravesteijn, Hermans, & van der Vleuten, 2002; Van der Vleuten, 2009).
It was believed for many years that technical developments were determined by scientific
knowledge and they determine the organization of social life. However, research done by
Hughes showed that a system is composed of networks of system builders, and system
components working together like the parts of a single huge machine. Components of
technological systems are physical or non-physical artifacts which function as a part of that
system. They can be physical artifacts such as turbo generators, organizations such as
manufacturing firms or investment banks, scientists such as university teachers, legislative
artifacts, such as regulatory laws, and natural resources such as coal mines (Hughes, 1989;
van der Vleuten, 2009).
Each component interacts either direct or indirect with other components in a system in order
to achieve goals of the system. Therefore, if the characteristics of a component change or the
component is removed from the system, it will influence the characteristics of other
components. There can be a systematic relationship between two artifacts if there is
coordination between their activities. This means that actors form two different artifacts have
systematic interaction to reach better results (Hughes, 1989; van der Vleuten, 2009).
The inventers or developers of system components called “System builders”, “inventorentrepreneurs” or “independent professional inventors” of a technological system. They have
the ability to construct unity from diversity, coherence from chaos, and centralization in the
face of pluralism. Furthermore, a technological system usually has an environment consisting
of intractable factors that are not under control of the system. However, a sector of the
environment can be incorporated into a system when it is under control of the system. An
open technological system refers to a system influenced by its environment whereas a closed
system, a system without influence from its environment, indicates that managers could
eliminate the uncertainty by using bureaucracy and routinization and bringing the
environment under the system control. There are two types of environmental factors: the ones
that affect the system and the ones that are dependent on the system (Joerges, 1988; Hughes,
1989).
21
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
SCIENTIFIC BACKGROUND AND METHODOLOGY
Hughes identified the following pattern of evolution in development of large technological
systems: invention, development, innovation, transfer, and growth, competition, and
consolidation, and momentum. Radical inventions occur the first phase of this pattern which
result in emergence of new systems. Conservative inventions happen later on to improve or
expand the existing systems. Inventor-entrepreneurs, who are responsible for most or all of
the inventions which cause the emergence of new technological systems, play a predominant
role in the development phase. In this phase the social construction of technology becomes
clear. System builders try to increase the size of the system under their control and reduce the
size of the environment that is not under their control in the innovation phase. Technology
transfer can happen at any period during the history of a technological system which transfers
the system from one region and society to another. However, if transfer occurs not after the
innovation phase or to a different environment, the system should adopt to the characteristics
of a different time or place (van der Vleuten, 2009; Hughes, 1989).
Reverse salient can be defined as critical problems that when will be solved can lead to the
growth of the system. A reverse salient occurs when some components of a system fall
behind or out of line during the expansion of the system. This will hamper or thwart the
growth of the entire system and therefore a corrective action is required. The reverse salient
can appear as a result of accidents and confluences that managers of a system do not foresee
or foresee but are unable to counter effectively. If a reverse salient cannot be corrected within
the context of an existing system, the problem becomes a radical one, and the solution may
bring a new and competing system (Hughes, 1983; Hughes, 1989).
As technological systems grow, they acquire momentum which has mass, velocity, and
direction. The mass for a technological system consists of machines, structures, and other
physical artifacts with a considerable capital investment. Momentum can also arise from the
involvement of professionals and organizations belonging to a system such as government
agencies or educational institutes. A system with mass has a rate of growth or velocity which
often accelerates. This means that once the basic decisions have been made and implemented,
the goal and direction of the system has emerged, and the system transfers and grows, it is
impossible to return or change the direction or goal (Hughes, 1989; Joerges, 1988).
As mentioned in the introduction, the LTS approach has hardly been applied to water
management. It has been argued that application of the LTS approach can clarify challenges
of stakeholders/actors in hydraulic system building. The approach has been used by Disco
and van der Vleuten (2002) to study the history of water system building in the Netherlands.
However, the research aims to arrive at a more clarified problem statement for the ULB and
not to study the historical development of the hydraulic systems related to the case. The
concepts used by Hughes to define a technological system inspired the author to investigate
whether or not application of a LTS approach is helpful to arrive at a clear problem
description. Therefore, considering the ULB as a system, the system components and their
interactions will be studied. Actors or system builders in the research will also be considered
as system components.
22
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
SCIENTIFIC BACKGROUND AND METHODOLOGY
Components will be presented in four categories of nature, hardware, orgware, and software.
Natural features such as rivers, wetlands, islands, animal, and plants will be described in the
nature category. Hardware refers to the dams, airports, railroads, roads, industries and mines,
and ports. Orgware indicates the actors or system builders of the system. Finally, software
points to the organizations and existing regulations in the system. However, some of
organizations allocated in the ULB are the main actors as well and therefore the main focus in
this part will be given to the regulations and laws.
Environment of the system will be described in two categories of social and physical. The
social environment refers to the living and working conditions of people who live in the ULB
including their culture, occupation, and economic situations. The physical environment refers
to the climate of the ULB defined by temperature, precipitation, humidity, and evaporation in
the region. Figure 5 illustrates the LTS approach that will be used in the research.
Wetlands
Islands
Nature
Rivers
Reed beds
Animals
Plants
System
components
Dams
Airports
Railroads
Mines
Hardware
Industries
Roads
Ports
Orgware
Actors (system
builders)
Software
Regulations and
laws
Components
interaction
Culture
Economical
issues
Religion
Social
Population
Environment
Temperature
Precipitation
Physical
Humidity
Evaporation
Figure 5- The LTS approach used in the research
3.2. Review on conflict analysis methods
To begin a review on the existing conflict analysis method, it is necessary to have a definition
for conflict. In general, a conflict rises in a situation that there are different groups or
23
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
SCIENTIFIC BACKGROUND AND METHODOLOGY
individuals involved that influence each other with opposing interests (Fraser & Hipel, 1984).
Conflict is a common fact in all interactions and therefore from long time ago, researchers
and mediators try to develop a methodology to understand and encourage positive resolutions
of conflicts.
Game theory is one of the well-known methods developed to model and analyze conflicts.
The theory was developed by Johan von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern (1944) which
addressed the individuals’ rational choices in situations that their interests are different.
Rationality in the choices means that a player chooses an option that is the most preferred to
him/her. The expression of ‘game’ used in game theory refers to a situation in which there are
at least two players. Each player has at least two strategies and each player has an influence
on the final result of the game (Howard, 1971; Chatterjee, 2010).
Game theory has been divided into cooperative and non-cooperative games. A difference
between these two branches is that a cooperative game focuses on principles such as equality
and fairness whereas players in a non-cooperative one intend to maximize their own utility
functions. Further, players have the possibility to make binding commitments before a
cooperative game begins. But players in a non-cooperative do not make binding and
communicate independently to obtain their objectives. Almost all of conflict analysis
methods fall in the category of non-cooperative game theory.
However, it was noticed that in the study of the actual situations, the sort of information that
is required for a game theory model is not generally available. Usually there is none or little
quantitative information available in an actual problem. There is often some non-quantitative
information involved in a real conflict as well. Further, in a strategic conflict, the order of
actions may not be known in advance, however, this is required for a game model. In a game
model the preferences of players must be presented by the real-value and this is not possible
for strategic conflicts.
A strategic conflict is defined as an interaction between two or more decision makers who are
independent of each other. They make choices that determine the final state or resolution of a
system whereas each of these decision makers has a preference over the final state. Therefore,
application of a non-cooperative model for analysis of a strategic conflict may limit the
verisimilitude of the model and therefore the usefulness of the model. Since then, other
models were developed to overcome the shortcomings of the classic game theory.
Metagame is the first model that allows an analyst to use relative preferences of the decisionmakers whereas in the classic game models cardinal preferences were required. Modeling a
conflict and analyzing it with this method is straightforward and furthermore, it permits
decision makers to move at any time and in any order (Kilgour & Hipel, 2010; Howard,
1971). It should be mentioned that the main idea for development of Metagame was taken
from the game theory. The idea of modeling a game in the terms of players, strategies and
outcomes has been a great contribution to formalizing conflicts for modeling. These concepts
allowed researchers/decision makers to think about a complex situation in a natural and
intuitively reasonable manner (Fraser & Hipel, 1984).
24
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
SCIENTIFIC BACKGROUND AND METHODOLOGY
Conflict analysis by Fraser and Hipel is an advanced version of Metagame. The modeling
part follows the same structure whereas new stability analysis has been added. Finally, the
graph model for conflict resolution is the latest version of conflict analysis that will be used
in this research. It is applicable to a current, historical or hypothetical dispute whereas a
decision maker, as a participant in a conflict or as a third party, analyzes the conflict.
Moreover, a consultant can apply the model for advising one of the decision makers involved
the conflict. Furthermore, it can be used as a mediation tool to facilitate communication
among decision makers (Fang, Hipel, & Kilgour, 1993).
The graph model for conflict resolution consists of two phases: modeling and analyzing. The
analyst structures the main characteristics of a conflict in the modeling part which are
decision makers, options and preferences. Decision maker can be an individual or a group of
individuals such as a governmental agent or private organization. Actors, stakeholders,
participants and players are the other terms that can be used instead of decision-maker.
Options refer to the actions that a decision maker can or cannot take in a conflict. ‘Strategy’
is one of the options that a decision maker is selected to take. A combination of strategies
forms a state, outcome or scenario. As there are two choices for each option: to be selected or
not selected, therefore there are 2n possible states for a model, whereas ‘n’ indicates the
number of options.
Some of these states are infeasible as they cannot take place in a real conflict. The infeasible
states will be removed or ignored from the conflict model. Each decision maker has
preferences among the feasible states that should be relatively understood. It means that the
analyst need to know a decision maker prefers a state more or less than the others or even
his/her preference is equal. In the case that only part of preferences of a decision maker is
known, the analyst can use equally preferences. Ordinal preferences refer to the ranked states.
It is assumed that preferences in a conflict model are transitivity which means if state ‘a’ is
preferred to state ‘b’ and ‘b’ to ‘c’, then state ‘a’ must be preferred to state ‘c’. But
intransitive preferences can occur in a real conflict therefore, most of conflict analysis
methods such as Graph model for conflict resolution can handle both situations.
Based on the obtained model, the possible interactions among decision makers will be studied
in the second phase of Graph model for conflict resolution which is called stability analysis.
In this stage, all the possible unilateral movement of decision makerS to a more preferred
state will be investigated to predict what can happen. The result of this investigation is a
stable state for a particular decision maker which means that there is no advantage for the
decision maker to take a unilaterally movement toward another state. Unilateral movement
indicates the situation whereas a decision maker changes his/her strategy to achieve a more
preferred state.
A range of solution concepts are used to calculate stability of states. Table 4 lists solution
concepts that have been used in the graph model for conflict resolution with a short
description about the solution concepts and four criteria that help to characterize each
concept. Foresight indicates the ability of the decision maker to consider in advance possible
movements. Disimprovements points to the willingness of decision maker to move to a worse
25
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
SCIENTIFIC BACKGROUND AND METHODOLOGY
situation. A strategic Disimprovement occurs when a decision maker moves temporarily to
reach eventually a more preferred state. Disimprovement by opponents refers to movement of
decision makers in worse situations to block unilateral improvements by a particular decision
maker. Own knowledge of preferences is when only the ability of other decision makers to
move to other states has been taken into account but their preferences were not used. A
decision maker can use it when there is uncertainty about the preferences of other decision
makers. The stability of all states for every decision maker will be examined. The state that is
stable for all the decision-makers is called equilibrium (Fang, Hipel, & Kilgour, 1993;
Kilgour & Hipel, 2010).
Table 4- Solution concepts and human behavior
Source: (Fang, Hipel, & Kilgour, 1993)
Solution concepts
Stability descriptions
decision
maker
unilaterally
Nash stability cannot
move to a more
(R)
preferred state
All
of
decision
maker’s
unilateral
General
improvements
are
metarationality
sanctioned
by
(GMR)
subsequent unilateral
moves by others
All
of
decision
maker’s
unilateral
improvements
are
Symmetric
still sanctioned even
metarationality
after
a
possible
(SMR)
response
by
the
original
decision
maker to sanctioning
All of Dm’s unilateral
improvements
are
sanctioned
by
Sequential
stability (SEQ) subsequent unilateral
improvements
by
others
Each decision maker
is assumed to act
Limited- move
optimally within a
stability (Lh)
specified number (h)
of state transitions
Foresight
Disimprovements
Knowledge
of
preferences
Strategic risk
Low
Never
Own
Ignores risk
Medium
By opponents
Own
Avoids risk;
Conservative
Medium
By opponents
Own
Medium
Never
All
Takes some
risks;
satisfies
Variable
Strategic
All
Accepts risk;
strategizes
26
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
SCIENTIFIC BACKGROUND AND METHODOLOGY
Non-myopic
stability (NM)
Limiting case of
limited-move stability
as the number of state
transitions increases
to infinity
High
strategic
All
The modeling part of a conflict that was described is almost the same for other conflict
models such as Metagame and conflict analysis. In the stability analysis part, the graph model
for conflict resolution adds limited-move and non-myopic concepts to the existing solution
concepts from other methods. The graph model for conflict resolution aims to provide advice
about how a suitable compromise resolution can be achieved to decision makers. Application
of this model in a conflict is shown in figure 6.
Conflict
Decision-makers
Outcomes
Modeling
Options
Preferences
Equilibrium
Analysis
Individual stabilities
Interpretation and sensitivity analysis
Information to assist decision makers
Figure 6- Application of graph model for conflict resolution
Source: (Fang, Hipel, & Kilgour, 1993)
In a stability analysis, parameters of a model will be changed in a systematic manner to
assess the robustness of the stability results. What-if questions can help to identify the
specific type of parameter change for further analysis in the sensitivity analysis. For example,
when there is uncertainty about the preferences of the decision makers. In this can a
reasonable range of possible preferences can be analyzed to see how the equilibria are
affected. If the equilibria change by small change in the preferences, then further study is
required to obtain more reliable preference information. This stage is useful, when an existing
conflict is studying, to avoid unforeseen results as one can never be sure about information
that is used in the modeling part. It can also be used to provide information on how the
27
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
SCIENTIFIC BACKGROUND AND METHODOLOGY
preferences of a decision maker have to change to produce more desirable outcome for
another decision maker.
3.2.1. Criteria for choosing the graph model for conflict resolution
The selection of the graph model for conflict resolution was based the following criteria that
game theories have been classified in comparison with characteristics of the dispute in the
ULB.
1. Number of players
The game theory techniques are often developed for two players, but the graph model can be
used for any infinite number of players. As a four decision makers were identified for the
dispute at the beginning of the research, the ULB is surrounded by three provinces and it was
assumed that the lake would be considered as a separate player/decision maker, the graph
model for conflict resolution was more appropriate.
2. Number of options
As mentioned in this section, for each game there are at least two players and each one has at
least two options. Most conflict analysis methods deal with finite number of players and
options, but there are infinite games, in which at least one player has an infinite number of
options. This criterion did not influence the selection of the graph model for conflicts
because it was assumed that the decision makers involved in the basin have a finite number of
options.
3. Type of preferences
The information regarding the preferences of a decision maker for a state in reality is often
relative which means that we can say a decision maker prefers state c more than state a.
Usually we cannot determine that how much a decision maker prefers one state over another
which is named cardinal preference. The graph model for conflict resolution is designed for
the cases with relative preference information, but it can deal with cardinal preferences as
well. Obtaining the cardinal preferences of feasible states from the viewpoint of each decision
maker would be impossible for the ULB and therefore the graph model for conflict resolution
is an appropriate choice.
4. Solution concepts
Table 4 presents a variety of solution concepts used to describe the “potential social
interactions in a conflict”. The graph model for conflicts adds the concepts NM and Lh to the
existing solution concepts used in the conflict analysis methods and game theories. It was not
clear beforehand whether or not decision makers involved in the ULB have a high or low
foresight. Furthermore, the graph model for conflict resolution uses the solution concept of
the previous models as well. So, the selection of this model may have added value to the
analysis part compared to other methods.
5. State of information
It is usually assumed that there is complete information in a game which means that all
decision makers understand the conflict and therefore know correctly each other’s options,
28
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
SCIENTIFIC BACKGROUND AND METHODOLOGY
preferences, and behavior. However, there are other states of information such as partial
information whereas at least one decision maker does not possess all the information about
one or more of the other decision makers. The graph model for conflict resolution can handle
different situations. As the decision makers involved in the ULB have participated in the
process of CIWP for development of a management plan, it is assumed that they understood
the conflict correctly and are aware of the other participants’ possible actions and their
preferences. So, this criterion did not influence the selection of the model for the research.
6. Cooperative and non-cooperative
As mentioned in section 3.2, graph model for conflict resolution is also rooted in the noncooperative game theory. However, it can also be extended to handle some types of
cooperative games. According to chapter two, the conflict in water allocation for the ULB is
cooperative because CIWP has focused on equality and fairness in the process of allocating
water and the executive plans among decision makers and therefore this criterion was not
considered in the selection of the method.
7. Time
The certain parameters of a model such as decision makers, their options, and preferences can
change over time. So, a new model can be developed each time that a parameter changes or
time can used as a variable into the modeling part which leads to a rather complex model.
This criterion was also not considered in the selection of the model as it was assumed that a
set of static models can be developed to present the possible changes in a conflict if
necessary.
3.3. Methodology
At first, a general overview of the research approach and research strategy is provided. The
main information sources and data collection methods used to answer the research question
and sub-questions are explained after that.
3.3.1. Research approach and strategy
To answer the main research question which is explorative, a qualitative research approach
has been selected. Qualitative research is more appropriate when the researcher has little
information beforehand. Generally, research can be classified into two categories:
unstructured and structured. Qualitative research is mainly unstructured and takes more cost
and time to be completed compared to quantitative research which is more structured.
However, one of the advantages of qualitative research is that it provides a lot of information
indicating that the researcher has to deal with a large amount of information (van der Velde,
Jansen, & Anderson, 2004).
A case study has been selected as a means to gather the qualitative information (Verschuren
and Doorewaard, 2010). Two dimensions are defined to categorize the research strategies:
“the degree to which the researcher intervenes” and “the degree to which the researcher wants
to make generally valid conclusions”. Figure 7 illustrates the quadrant in which a case study
can be categorized. A case study mainly observes the real situations and therefore it involves
29
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
SCIENTIFIC BACKGROUND AND METHODOLOGY
less intervention compared to research strategies such as experiment. In addition, a case study
is less generally applicable compared to a survey because it does not use sampling from a
population, especially in this research that focuses only on a single case (van der Velde,
Jansen, & Anderson, 2004).
Intervention
Laboratory
experiment
Experimental
simulation
Evaluation tasks
Field
test
General
Survey
Specific
Case study
Theoretical
research
Computer
simulations
No Intervention
Figure 7- Classification of research strategies
Source 5: (van der Velde, Jansen, & Anderson, 2004)
The case study in this research is conducted in three phases. In the first phase, an overview of
water allocation and its objectives are investigated, as well as the importance of change in the
current water allocation regime in the ULB. In the second phase, the developed STS approach
is applied to provide a systematic description of the ULB. Verschuren and Doorewaard
(2010) mention providing a systematic description of a case as the most important
characteristics of a case study. The objective of the second phase is to arrive at a clear
problem statement and to identify the conflicting claims for achieving a sustainable water
allocation. Finally, in the third phase, a graph model for conflict resolution has been applied
to evaluate the possible approaches that can be taken by the stakeholders, supplemented with
their preferences, to be able to determine the most appropriate strategy for arriving at a
resolution.
3.3.2. Data collection methods and sources
Literature study was done using the facilities provided by TU Delft. The following resources
were used to find articles, books and journals: Scopus, JSTOR, and Google Scholar. The
keywords used to search for articles and books are listed in table 5.
Table 5- Search terms
Keywords and terms used regarding sustainable water allocation:
“Water allocation”, “sustainable water resources allocation”.
Keywords and terms used regarding socio-technical systems:
“Socio- technical systems”, “Socio-technical systems + Hughes”, “STS approach”, “Sociotechnical systems AND Water resources management”, “Large technical systems”,
30
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
SCIENTIFIC BACKGROUND AND METHODOLOGY
“application of socio-technical systems in water management”
Keywords and terms used regarding Conflict analysis methods:
“Conflict resolution methods”, “Conflict analysis methods in water resource management”,
“Graph model”, “Conflict resolution AND Water resources allocation”, “ Graph model
AND Water resources management”
Furthermore a rich collection of articles, PhD dissertations, and reports were provided by
Prof van Beek, Dr Hashemi, Dr Salavitabar and others. Moreover, official documents as well
as reliable governmental information were extracted from the official Iranian websites. The
main sources of data used in the research are listed below:
-
-
-
Four reports by Yekom Consulting Engineers (2002) in English: Management Plan
for the Lake Uromiyeh12 Ecosystem.
Nine reports by Yekom Consulting Engineers (2005) in Farsi: Study of environmental
impacts (quality and quantity impacts) of Urumia Lake’s water resource development
projects on the lake
Nine reports by Pandam Consulting Engineers (2005) in English: Integrated water
resources management for the Lake Uromiyeh Basin
Report by Ministry of Energy (2010) in Farsi: A report of current environmental
situation of Urumia Lake Basin
Seven reports by Water & Wastewater Macro Planning Bureau in Farsi: Upgrading
comprehensive water plan of the country in basin Aras, Sefidrud, between Sefidrud
and Haraz, Atrak, Uromiyeh (the report mostly has been performed by Mahab Ghodss
Consulting Engineering Company)
PhD thesis by Dr. Hashemi (2012)
PhD thesis by Dr. Nazaridoust (2006)
A Memorandum of Understanding For Conservation and Sustainable Management of
Lake Urumia Basin by CIWP ( both editions of 2008 and 2010)
It should be noted that the volume of each report is used after the name of the company like
“Yekom1, 2002” which indicates the first volume of the report by Yekom Consulting
Engineers published in 2002.
Desk research, a literature survey, was used to map out the latest methods developed for
conflict analysis. Desk research is a research strategy where the researcher uses material
produced by others and therefore does not gather empirical data herself/himself. Desk
research can be distinguished into literature survey and secondary research. “The literature
survey aims to review the critical points of current knowledge including substantive findings
as well as theoretical and methodological contributions to a particular topic”. However,
secondary research refers to the researcher who reorganizes existing data, analyzes, and
interprets them from a different perspective. A main requirement for desk research is reliable
scientific data because the researcher is completely dependent on existing literature. A
12
Uromiyeh is another spelling for Urumia which has been used for some of the reports. In this thesis Uromiyeh
is used for referring to the capital of WA. The city name and the lake name is the same.
31
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
SCIENTIFIC BACKGROUND AND METHODOLOGY
secondary research was used to provide information required for presenting the pressure on
the current water allocation regime in the ULB and to develop and implement an approach
for analyzing the situation in ULB in a systematic way (Verschuren & Doorewaard, 2010).
Furthermore, the two common methods of interviews and observation for collecting data in a
case study mentioned by Van Der Velde (2004) have been used in the research. The
unstructured and semi-structured interviews were used for obtaining information sources,
gaining the opinions and attitudes of stakeholders involved regarding the situation of the
ULB and the possible actions to maintain the lake. An unstructured interview uses openended questions which allow the researcher to collect more information compared to a
structured interview with closed questions and fixed answer options. In a semi-structured
interview, the researcher formulates the questionnaire but will go into more detail for some
important issues during the interview as well (van der Velde, Jansen, & Anderson, 2004).
Free-form interview is a type of unstructured interview that is often used in an explorative
research. The aim of this interview is to provide more insight into an issue which in this
research is the critical situation in the ULB and the perspective of stakeholders involved. To
perform free-form interview, it is only required to fix the topic and the initial question
beforehand. Chat interview can be categorized in unstructured interview which were
employed due to the long distance of the interviewer from respondents and to avoid the high
costs of telephone interview. The advantage of chat interview is that it provides both
interviewer and respondent a record of their conversation. (van der Velde, Jansen, &
Anderson, 2004).
Interviews have been conducted in two parts: free-form interview was performed at the first
part on July-August 2011 to gain access to reports of other researches that have been carried
out on the ULB and to get an overview on the perspectives of the respondents regarding the
lake’s situation. A variety group of stakeholders from the governmental and nongovernmental
organizations were selected to be interviewed. The interview’s questions were tested in order
to maximize the cooperation of respondents and minimize their resistance. So, the draft
version of questions was checked with three individuals, Dr Morid from Tarbiat Modares
University, Dr Salavitabar from Mahab Ghodss, and Mr Arabpour from CIWP, who did not
belong to the actual sample of respondents but know the interviewees and were working on
the case.
However, there was no success for conducting interviews with nongovernmental
organizations because of a strong tension for Lake Urumia at that time which made the
stakeholders and mediators reluctant to do interviews. Only two interviews were conducted
with two governmental organizations, but both respondents answered based on the process of
CIWP and therefore no further interviews were performed, because Van der Velde (2004)
mentions in his book to continue the interviews until you no longer hear any new
information. The main success of the first part of interviews was in terms of getting a large
number of reports. Furthermore, one of respondents gave the access to a series of interviews
performed by other researchers. This along with two chat interviews helped to get an
32
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
SCIENTIFIC BACKGROUND AND METHODOLOGY
overview about the perspective of the stakeholders involved regarding the critical situation of
the lake.
The semi-structured interview was used for the second part to obtain some missing
information related to chapter two and four. However, the main aim was to find out the
preferences of the stakeholders involved regarding the executive plans for providing water to
the lake. The criterion for the selection of the respondents in this phase was those
organizations that could take action which was mainly the governmental organization in three
provinces. Thirteen interviews were performed in this phase with provincial water boards,
DOEs, Departments of Jihad-e- Agriculture, and some experts.
An interview protocol was developed and sent to the respondents in advance including a short
introduction about the researcher and the objective of the thesis, the aim of interview, and the
related questions. The interviews lasted between 45 minutes to 3 hours and some of them
were recorded. It was assured that the interviews’ result would be processed anonymously
and therefore the names of the respondents are not mentioned in the text. They are referred in
the text with a random number, for example “Respondent1”. The list of numbers and names
are only available for the graduation committee. To prevent identifying the respondents,
references are inserted at the end of each paragraph and not after the specific sentence.
Furthermore, a transcription of each interview was written and sent to the related respondent
for validation. The transcriptions were sent to the respondents with an explanation as follows:
“a reminder will be sent after two weeks in the case that I do not receive any respond from
you. I will consider the transcription confirmed in the case that I do not get a feedback two
weeks after the reminder”. The interview protocol and a summary of the interviews are
provided in appendix B.
Finally, field visit was used to collect data not on the behavior of stakeholders involved, but
on the physical situation of the lake and social-economic conditions of the three provinces.
The capitals of three provinces, some villages in EA and Kurdistan, the lake, the causeway,
and Golmankhaneh port were visited providing a more realistic overview of the current
situation in the basin. Finally, some of the pictures including the picture used in the cover
page were taken during the visit to be used in the text.
The information source and data collection methods used to answer each sub-research
question is described briefly below.
Sub-question2
The second sub-question is descriptive and therefore providing answer to it requires no
theory. To provide a precise inventory of the water allocation problem in the basin, a brief
literature study based on TU Delft library and search engine “Google scholar” was used to
provide a better understanding on the concept of water allocation and its objectives at first.
After that, a secondary research has been performed. The information was obtained mainly
through secondary data including the reports and PhD theses mentioned in the list of data
sources. Next to that, the literature study and interviews were used to fill the gaps in
information (van der Velde, Jansen, & Anderson, 2004).
33
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
SCIENTIFIC BACKGROUND AND METHODOLOGY
Sub-question 1 & 3
A literature study on STS/LTS was conducted to develop an approach for analyzing the
situation of ULB. The main aim was to apply the LTS approach in order to gain a more
clarified problem statement. Three questions were formulated based on the LTS approach to
provide the answer to the sub-questions. To answer the three questions, a secondary research
was used in which data was collected from the list described in the Data collection methods
and sources. Furthermore, semi-structured interviews conducted in the second part used to fill
the missing parts of the information. The insight obtained from the field visit is also used in
answering the sub-questions.
Question 4
A literature survey was carried out for mapping out the latest conflict analysis method
applicable to water resources allocation. Search engines such as Scopus and JSTOR, and TU
Delft library was used to find the relevant articles, books, and journals. A graph model for
conflict resolution was selected and in order to get access to the software developed for the
method, the author contacted the Canadian developers. They gave permission for using the
software free of charge for the research. Moreover, the findings from question one and two
were used to answer this question.
Question 5
The answer to this theoretical research question is provided by evaluating the application of
the approach in providing data for the graph model for conflict resolution.
Table 6 presents the theories/methods, the research strategies and data collection methods
used to answer each research question and corresponding outputs of each question.
Table 6- Methodology used to answer the research questions
Questio
n
Theories/Methods
Research
strategies
Data collection
methods
Outputs
1
STS approach*
LS, SR
SD, IP1, IP2,FV
Clarified problem
statement
2
None
LS, SR
SD,I2
Steps toward a SWAR
3
STS approach*
LS, SR
SD, IP1, IP2,FV
Clarified problem
statement/ Conflicting
claims
4
Graph model for
conflict
resolution**
LS
SD, IP2
A DSS for Managing
conflicts
5
STS approach& the
graph model
SD
Evaluation of the
combined method and
approach
LS: Literature survey
SR: Secondary research
SD: Secondary data
IP1: Interview part 1
SR
IP2: Interview part 2
FV: Field visit
SWAR: Sustainable water allocation regime
DSS: Decision support system
34
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
SCIENTIFIC BACKGROUND AND METHODOLOGY
*It should be noted that a STS approach may also be used instead of the graph model for
conflict resolution in order to find a resolution for the conflicting claims. However, the author
aimed to introduce a DSS, in the selected model GMCR II, to the mediators related to the
ULB. This may help them to predict the behavior of the main stakeholders involved in
advanced and take the necessary actions to change the possible actions by the main
stakeholders or their preferences to choose among their possible actions.
**The same trend could be used for the Graph model for conflict resolution which means that
it could be applied to model and analyze the conflicting claims. However, the problem
statement given to the author at the beginning was very global and therefore she decided to
develop a STS approach to arrive at a more clarified problem statement. She realized that the
steps taken into account for the modeling the conflict applying only the graph model for
conflict resolution is not enough for the ULB case.
35
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
36
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
URUMIA LAKE BASIN
4. URUMIA LAKE BASIN
The LTS approach has been applied to analyze the current situation of Lake Urumia.
Considering the ULB as a system, its components are specified at first. The interactions
between components of the system are illustrated after that. Furthermore, the social and
physical environment of the system is introduced. At last, a problem statement is developed
to help identify the conflicting claims.
4.1. System’s components
The system components are presented in the four categories nature, hardware, orgware, and
software. To avoid overlapping, the system builders or actors are considered as part of the
system component because they fit to the orgware category. This section provides a short
description about the characteristics of each element in the four categories.
4.1.1. Nature
The nature of the ULB system consists of the lake itself, the islands inside the lake, the
surrounding wetlands, reed beds, rivers, animals, plants, and mountains.
Lake
Lake Urumia as the largest lake in Iran has a surface area between 4500 and 6000 km2, a
depth of 5.4 m, the length of 130 to 146 km, and a maximum width of 58 km in the south.
The Lake water level varies between 1274 and 1277.5 meters above sea level. The lake forms
about nine percent of the ULB (Yekom1, 2002; Hashemi, 2008; Water research institute,
ITC, Wetlands International, Yekom, Pandam, 2006).
The water inflow into the lake has beed recognized as the source of salt in the lake. Lake
Urumia is a closed basin so the only exit for water is by evaporation and therefore minerals
entering the lake stay there. This means that the salt concentration is depended to the amount
of water inflow, the water level of the lake, and direct precipitation. It has been determinded
that the salt deposited by Lake Urumia has good quality with a reserve of 3.2 million tons of
commercial salt (Pandam3, 2005; Yekom2, 2002).
Artemia is an aquatic invertebrate that can survive in a temperature between 18 and 25
degrees centigrade and salinity of 60 to 70 gram salt per liter. Artemia is the main source of
food for migratory birds especially flamingos while algae is the food for Artemia. If the
salinity goes above 250 13 g/l, the Artemia eggs do not hatch. This condition has occurred in
Urumia Lake due to the severe drought during the last 12 years and therefore the amount of
Artemia has dropped. Artemia eggs are called cysts that are valuable for aquaculture and
aquaria since they are well-known as a good source of food for fishes and shrimps (Yekom1,
2002; Yekom2, 2002).
The rich mud and water of the lake are useful for health and have been used in traditional and
modern medicine. People believe that the mud and water can treat some diseases such as skin
13
The volume fourth of report by Yekom 2002 indicates a long term average of the lake salinity to be 253 g/l.
37
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
URUMIA LAKE BASIN
and rheumatic problems (Yekom2, 2002). The benefits that the lake provides for the people
living around it have been discussed in the section 1.1.
Islands and wetlands
As mentioned in chapter one, there are around 56 islands in the lake and a number of
wetlands around the lake. Both islands and wetlands are well-known as breeding grounds for
water birds mainly flamingo and white pelican. Islands such as Kaboodan and Ashk host two
species of threatened mammals for many years. However, some of the islands have joined the
land mass as a result of drop in the lake water level.
The wetlands are located close to or at the point where rivers enter the lake. Beside the values
mentioned in the section 1.1 for the wetlands, they are sources of natural products such as
vegetation for grazing, hay and water for domestic animals, water birds for hunting, and fish
and reeds for locals (Pandam1, 2005).
From the seven wetlands studied by Pandam Consulting Engineers (2005), two wetlands have
lost their original ecological values and characters entirely. One has been transformed to a
permanent fresh water reservoir, but another wetland has been created as compensation. The
other one is drained unintentionally and there are still possibilities to restore it.
Reed beds
Reed beds grow in the area of confluence between fresh and salt water. They are renewable
components of the wetlands and therefore exploitation of them by locals is in equilibrium
with the wetlands ecosystem. Reeds can also be found often around irrigation and drainage
networks. There are no reeds in the lake and rivers do not have that much reeds. Reed beds
are not only habitats of wildlife, but also an important source of material for construction
(roof) in the villages. Some of reed beds are dead due to increase in the lake water level
between 1988 and 1998 which caused that reed beds were covered by salt water for some
years (Yekom2, 2002; Respondent15, 2011; Respondent10, 2011).
Mountains and rivers
In general, the ULB covers the northern slopes of mountain Zagros and the eastern slopes of
the mountain ranges between Iran and Turkey. It constitutes the western slopes of mountain
Sahand (volcano) as well. Mountainous area forms a large part of the basin by 38%. The rest
covers by hills (%21), plateau (11.2 %), Lake Urumia (9%), and complex and miscellaneous
land. Most of the mineral and hot waters in the region are located in the mountainous areas
and the resources are situated in rocks. Most of the water resources (like those surrounding
the Sabalan and Sahand mount) are around young volcanic passages (Yekom1, 2002;
Hashemi, 2008).
The basin consists of 11 sub-basins where 14 permanent rivers, 7 seasonal rivers, and 39
floodways run toward the Lake Urumia. Most of the surface water is situated in the western
part of the basin (Hashemi, 2008). Figure 8 shows the sub-basins and main rivers of the ULB.
38
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
URUMIA LAKE BASIN
Figure 8- Sub-basins and main rivers of the ULB
Source 6: (Hashemi, The status of water resources in the Lake Uromiyeh Basin , 2008)
Plants
There are about 1500 recorded species of plants within the ULB. The mountain areas have
the most diversity whereas salt marshes and salt semi-deserts have the lowest diversity of
flora in the basin. WWF14 and IUCN15 identified the meadow and grassland as a “Centre of
Plant Diversity16” in the mountainous areas. The green and blue-green algae are the only
plants that survive in the high salinity of the lake. Some islands are covered by oak and
pistachio trees (Yekom1, 2002).
Animals
In general, 27 species of mammals, 212 species of birds, 41 species of reptiles, 7 species of
amphibians and 26 species of fish species have been recorded within the basin. The
significant species of birds in the basin are Greater Flamingos, white pelicans, and water
birds such as ducks and waders. The most important mammals within the ecological zone are
the “Armenian Wild Sheep” and “Persian Fallow Deer” (Yekom1, 2002).
14
World Wildlife Fund
International Union for the Conservation of Nature
16
An initiative by WWF and IUCN to identify the areas in the world with the highest conservation values in
terms of protecting the highest number of plant species.
15
39
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
URUMIA LAKE BASIN
There is no fish in the lake, but the satellite wetlands and rivers have important fish
populations. Fish is a main source of food for birds living in the wetlands and islands. Small
fishing is practiced by people from the local communities. Fishing is not allowed in any of
the satellite wetlands. There are some rivers and lakes behind dams that have fish (Yekom1,
2002).
There are species of amphibians and reptiles in the basin that will not be discussed here
because there was no information in the documents that were studied about the areas that they
live and their characteristics (Yekom1, 2002; Yekom2, 2002).
4.1.2. Hardware
The hardware of the systems includes the dams, airports, railroads, roads, ports, industries
and mines located in the ULB.
Dams
Water utilities in the basin such as storage dams, diversion dams, and pumping stations
provide surface water withdrawal by regulating the flow of rivers. There are 63 big and small
storage dams and 41 diversion dams built on the existing rivers. The storage dams aim to
provide water for drinking, industry, agriculture, power generation, and control flooding. The
existing water utilities in the basin can regulate an annual amount of about 1762 MCM of
surface water of which 1315 MCM belongs to WA and 447 MCM to EA. However, due to
drought, it is only possible to regulate around 1500 MCM in a year. After implementation of
the existing development plans, the capacity will reach 4581 MCM per year in 2011-2012 of
which 3816.5 MCM belongs to WA and 764.5 belongs to EA (Yekom7, 2005).
The report of Mahab Ghodss3 (2011) shows that dams are constructed either by the
provincial agriculture departments to provide some part of water required for agriculture or
by the provincial water boards to supply water for drinking, agriculture, industry, and power
generation. The total amount of water regulated annually by dams in this report is 3985 MCM
where 1856.61 MCM of this amount is from dams in operation, 1627.6 MCM by dams under
construction, and 500.8 MCM through dams under study. Table 7 shows the number of dams
in operation, under construction, and under study for each province while table 8
demonstrates the distribution of regulated water by these dams between different sectors.
Table 7- The amount of dams for three provinces in ULB based
Source 7: (MahabGhodss4, 2011)
Province
EA
WA
Kurdistan
Total
In operation
Under construction
Under study
Total
Agriculture
department
Water
authority
total
Agriculture
department
Water
authority
total
Agriculture
department
Water
authority
total
12
2
0
14
20
9
0
29
32
11
0
43
0
0
0
0
3
11
1
15
3
11
1
15
3
1
0
4
6
17
3
26
9
18
3
30
40
44
40
4
88
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
URUMIA LAKE BASIN
Table 8- Distribution of regulated water between different sectors
Source 8: (MahabGhodss4, 2011)
1255.9
389.1
Power
generation
(MCM)
74
1238.6
144.5
87.4
35
430.8
0.1
6.7
10
Agriculture Drinking
(MCM)
(MCM)
Dams/Sectors
In operation
Under
construction
Under study
Industry
(MCM)
0
Industries
Industry is mainly located around the cities especially Tabriz (capital of EA) and Uromiyeh
(capital of WA). Tabriz has become one of the industrial poles in the country as a result of
large investments especially by the government. It has some industries over 50 years old in
making matches. Moreover, Tabriz is famous for its machine building industry like Tractor
(Yekom7, 2005).
According another report, there are 8088 industrial units in the basin in which around 14% of
that (1101 units) is located within industrial cities. It is mentioned that Kurdistan does not
have any industrial units in the basin. Table 9 shows the amount of different industries in the
industrial cities and in total (Iranian Water Resources Management Company, 2009).
Table 9- Industrial units' share in the Basin 2007
Source 9: (Iranian Water Resources Management Company, 2009)
Number of
industrial
units located
in the
industrial
city
Number of
industrial
units
Food
Textile
Leather
Cellulose
Metal
Nonmetallic
minerals
Chemical
Electricity
&
Electrolytic
Machinery
manufacturing
Total
193
77
19
88
143
69
256
45
211
1101
387
645
841
907
1337
256
1298
8088
999 1418
Mines
The only available information regarding mines within the ULB is that there are 305 mines
comprising 165 quarries, 139 non-metal mines and one metal mine (Iranian Water Resources
Management Company, 2009). Figure 9 illustrates the distribution of them in the basin.
41
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
URUMIA LAKE BASIN
Figure 9- Distribution of mines in Lake Urumia Basin
Source 10: (Iranian Water Resources Management Company, 2009)
Roads
The roads around the lake have been present since long time and many of them have been
widened or paved in recent years. A causeway named Shahid Kalantari Highway has been
constructed in the middle of the lake since 1979 to create a shorter route between the east
(Tabriz) and the west (Uromiyeh). The causeway reduces the distance between two cities of
Tabriz and Uromiyeh by half. Since construction of the causeway, the lake has been divided
into a north and south section. The causeway is currently used for only cars, but in future it
will be used for train as well. The construction of the causeway took several years since the
project faced some problems due to high salinity of the water. Therefore, the causeway was
intersected by a 15 km wide channel. Until a few years ago, ferries transferred vehicles and
passengers across the channel. But, recently, a dual bridge has being constructed across the
channel of which one side of the bridge was finished on November 2008. Figure 10 shows
the layout of this causeway in Lake Urumia (Yekom2, 2002; Civil affairs deputy(West
Azarbaijan), 2011; Bardestani, 2008).
42
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
URUMIA LAKE BASIN
Shahid kalantari highway
Figure 10- Shahid Kalantari highway
Source 11: Google maps
Ports
There are some ports around the lake that were used to transport passengers and cargo
between Tabriz and Uromiyeh. Sharafkhaneh and Rahmanlu Ports are located in EA whereas
Rashkan and Golmankhaneh Ports are in WA. The use of these ports changed to tourism and
seasonal recreation due to development of the causeway. Sharafkhaneh, located in the
northeast, and Golmankhaneh, located in the southeast, are the oldest ports of the lake. They
were used to transfer passengers and cargo between the lake and the railroad connecting
Sharafkhaneh to Tabriz. Nowadays, these ports no longer operate because of the drop in lake
water level. ‘Aq Gonbad’ Port, located in Islami Island is the only port still in operation. The
municipality of WA or/and EA had some new plans for redevelopment of the ports to attract
tourism, but DOE does not give permission for any new construction especially in
Golmankhaneh Port (Yekom2, 2002; CIWP2, 2008; Respondent15, 2011).
Railroad
Close to the east part of Lake Urumia, the main railroad between Tehran and Tabriz was built
in 1957. There are also some minor railroads which connect Jolfa (border of Russia) to Tabriz
and Sofian (a city in EA) to Sharafkhaneh Port. These railroads were constructed in 19191920 to facilitate transportation across the border to Russia and Turkey. Figure 11 indicates
the location of some of the railroad stations close to the ports (IYP, 2012; Yekom2, 2002;
MPTC, 2012).
Air ports
There are two airports located within the basin one in Tabriz and the other one in Urumia.
Tabriz airport is an international airport with flights to Turkey, Iraq, Jeddah, Medina, and
Adana and domestic flights to Shiraz, Tehran, Kish, and Mashhad. Uromiyeh airport mainly
offers flights to Tehran, but the number of domestic destinations is expected to increase.
Moreover, an international terminal is nearly completed and a few international flights have
been taken place (Yekom2, 2002; Borna, 2011).
43
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
URUMIA LAKE BASIN
Figure 11- The location of some of the railroad stations and ports
Source 12: google maps
4.1.3. Orgware
The main focus is on actors that have most influence in the system such as the provincial
water boards, Department of Jihad-e- Agricultures, and DOEs. However, other actors are
described briefly as well.
Department of Environment
The Hunting Center of Iran was the first organization to take care of environmental issues on
a national level and was established in 1956. Later on, the center was replaced by the Game
and Fish Organization in 1967 when the Urumia Lake was declared as a protected area. The
organization was replaced by formation of the DOE in 1972. The current framework to
manage environmental issues in Urumia Lake has been defined in EA, WA, and Kurdistan
since 1974. The lake has been designated as National Park (Urumia Lake including
terrestrial habitats of Kaboodan, Arezu, Ashk, Espir and Doghuzlar islands) from 1975 and
the provincial DOE in West Azarbaijan is responsible for it. The satellite wetlands are
managed based on their location by the provincial DOE in WA or EA.
In chapter two it was explained that the national committee became responsible for defining
the development capacities with considering ecosystem in the ULB. The regional council at
44
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
URUMIA LAKE BASIN
the basin level is responsible for implementing, evaluating, and revising the management plan
at the end of the fifth17 year.
Besides determining water rights of three provinces and the lake, 24 plans were selected out
of 39 proposed plans by the actors in a participatory process to ensure the water right of the
lake. The plans are related to the main actors consisting of the provincial water boards,
DOEs, and Department of Jihad-e- Agricultures. The proposed plans were evaluated by a
specialized committee at the national level in collaboration with the provincial experts. The
technical issues, period of plans, and the budget required for their implementation were used
as the criteria for selection of the proposed plans. However, the main criterion for the
selection of plans was saving the lake. The selected plans named executives plans shown in
table 10 have to be implemented within 5 years. The budget of most of these plans will be
provided separate from the provincial funding. The plans do not contribute in saving water
(Respondent8, 2011; Respondent2, 2011).
Table 10- The executive plans regarding the provincial DOEs
Source 13: (Respondent8, 2011)
Plan/Project
Launch two fixed stations to measure climatic and
1 hydrological parameters and set up hydrometer
stations in estuary of rivers
Set up the ULB’s environmental laboratory in the
2 National Park and activate the permanent secretariat
of the Regional Council
Quick water transfer to the islands for supply of
needed water ne to wildlife and study and
3
implementation of a permanent irrigation to the
island outside of the ULB
4 Hydrographic and determination of wetlands border
Priority
Province
Realization
year
1
WA
2015
1
WA
2014
1
WA
2012
WA
EA
WA
EA
DOE
2014
2014
2014
2014
2012
2
5
Study feasibility of reducing evaporation from the
lake surface, and study to restore satellite wetlands
2
6
Qualitative and quantitative monitoring of Lake
Urumia and satellite wetlands’ polluting sources
2
WA
2014
2
WA
EA
K
2014
2014
2014
Increasing public awareness and public participation
7
in protecting Lake Urumia and wetlands
17
“The Memorandum of Understanding is valid from October 2008 for five years and would be valid for an
additional 20 years unless one of the Parties withdraws formally” (CIWP, 2010).
45
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
URUMIA LAKE BASIN
Comprehensive studies of the drought risk
management of the ULB
Development and establishment of Decision support
9
system (DSS) for the ULB
8
2
EA
2014
2
WA
2014
Department of Jihad-e- Agriculture
The Ministry of Jihad-e- Agriculture is a merger of ministries Agriculture and Jihad of
Construction in 2001. Construction Jihad started its work as a volunteer’s movement to help
harvest in 1979, but soon took a broader role by initiating projects such as building of roads,
schools, irrigation canals, water pipes, clinics, and electricity networks (FAO, 2003; Keddie,
2003). The responsibility of Ministry of Jihad-e- Agriculture is to manage lands, land use,
and land tenure. The ministry aims to increase the quality and quantity of agricultural
products, enhance investments in agricultural developments, facilitate sustainable agricultural
development, and develop villages in nomadic regions. In addition, the Forest and Range
Organization that is affiliated with the ministry is responsible for licensing wood collection
from forests/lands, felling trees, and animal grazing in range-lands like the lake basin. The
activities of this ministry have a great impact on water consumption, water quality, and
ecosystem of the basin (Yekom3, 2002; Pandam1, 2005).
Five executive plans are related to the provincial Department of Jihad-e- Agriculture which is
presented in table 11.
Table 11- The executive plans regarding the provincial Department of Jihad-e- Agriculture
Source 14: (Respondent8, 2011)
priority
Plan/Project
1
Implementation of modern
irrigation methods
2
Update national document
efficiency of water use
agriculture sector
3
Empowerment of the exploiters and
exploiting water organizations
4
Study modification of cultivated
plants’ pattern
2
5
Implementation of watershed
Management projects
2
1
in
in
1
2
province
WA
EA
K
WA
EA
K
WA
EA
K
WA
EA
K
WA
EA
K
Realization
year
First year
Total
2016
40
38
12
187
105
60
2016
-
-
2016
-
-
2016
-
735
945
105
2016
-
-
90
35218
Total
18
The water will be save by implementation of plan 4 has not been calculated in the total.
46
Water saved (MCM)
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
URUMIA LAKE BASIN
The farmer’s house is one of the NGOs that have been established for the welfare of farmers
all over the country for 11 years. This nongovernmental organization deals with cultural,
social, economic, and political issues related to farmers. The structure of the farmer’s house
is as follows: in each district, there are 5-6 representatives that will be selected by farmers.
From each district one representative will be chosen to go to the city and from each city one
representative will be sent to the province. The representatives regularly keep in touch with
the farmer’s house to transfer any problem regarding to the farmers. The problems will be
investigated by the scientific committee in the farmer’s house to propose the best solution.
Then, the representative of the farmer’s house in the commission submits the solution for
approval.
Water board
The responsibility of water, energy, and electricity is with the Ministry of Energy. Urumia
Lake is under supervision of the provincial DOE in West Azarbaijan since it is a National
Park. However, the provincial water boards control water resource and consequently the
amount of water inflow to the lake. The Ministry of Energy and DOE have different opinions
regarding water allocation to the lake and construction of dams on rivers flowing into the
lake. Almost all of the surface water is controlled and distributed by the water boards in the
basin (Yekom3, 2002; Respondent9, 2011).
Table 12 describes ten executive plans that have to be implemented by the provincial water
boards to ensure the water allocation for the lake.
Table 12- Executive plans regarding the provincial water boards
Source 15: (Respondent8, 2011)
priority
Plan/Project
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Dredging rivers leading to the lake to
reduce evaporation
Regulation implementing the efficiency of
agricultural water and bulk water delivery
Hydrographic and determination of the
Lake Basin border
Study and implementation of reproductive
Clouds
Study the effect of non-conventional
sources caused by sewage transmission
Study development and improvement of
irrigation
networks
and
drainage
downstream from dams and its effects on
the Lake
Expanding public awareness on the use of
basin water resources
Study and implementation of surface water
measurement network complementary plan
47
province
Realization
year
WA
EA
WA
EA
2012
2013
2
WA
2
Water saved
(MCM)
First year Total
50
35
20
150
50
50
2012
-
-
EA
2012
-
350
2
WA
EA
2012
-
After
study
2
WA
2012
72.5
290
2
WA
2014
-
-
2
WA
EA
2013
-
-
1
1
2014
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
URUMIA LAKE BASIN
9
Identification and prevention of illegal use
of groundwater and surface water resources
Study and implementation of irrigation
channels’ improvement to Ghuri Guri
wetland
Total
2
2
10
K
WA
EA
K
2016
EA
2012
-
200
25
40
-
-
177.5
1155
2012
There are three plans to transfer water from other regions that have not been mentioned in the
executive plans because they have separate funding. The first plan belongs to WA and aims
to transfer about 600 MCM water from the Kelas River to the lake. It has been approved and
implementation has started. The second plan is under study and aims to transfer 300 MCM
water from the Aras River to the basin. This water will to be used for domestic usage and
industrial towns in EA. The third plan is in its preliminary stage to investigate the
possibilities of transferring water from the Caspian Sea (Respondent16, 2011; Respondent5,
2011).
Ministry of Industry, Mine, and Trade
The Ministry of Industry and Mine has merged with Ministry of Commerce in 2011 and
formed the Ministry of Industry, Mine, and Trade. The provincial office located in EA
unilaterally gave several permissions for harvesting salt from the lake. The DOE objected to
this and as a result the permissions were revoked. It has been agreed that DOE will grant
licenses for individuals or groups who have a letter from the provincial offices of Industry,
Mine, and trade for salt harvesting in 2012 (Respondent15, 2011; Respondent12, 2011;
Radmanesh, 2011).
Ministry of Transportation and Housing
The Ministry of Transportation and Housing was formed by a merger of the two ministries of
‘Housing and Urban Development’ and ‘Roads and Transportation’ in June 2011. The
Ministry of Road and Transportation was mainly responsible for providing the country’s
transportation include road, rail, air, and water. The construction of infrastructure will have
an impact on the ecology of the lake basin. Therefore, infrastructure development should be
accompanied by an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). In some cases roads, highways,
and bridges were built in the region without a proper EIA. The Ministry of Housing and
Urban Development prepares comprehensive plans for urban, rural, and land use
developments. The ministry has to consider constrains like availability of water resources and
suitability of lands for different uses. (Ministry of Roads & Urban Development, 2012;
Yekom3, 2002).
The ports and Shipping Organization has also integrated into the Ministry of Transportation
and Housing in past. This organ had the responsibility of harbor affairs and shipping
including the related pollution matters (Yekom3, 2002).
48
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
URUMIA LAKE BASIN
Salt harvesters
There was little information available related to the salt harvesters. The provincial office of
Industrial and Mines in WA has three industrial saltpans that harvest about 20 thousand tons
salt per year whereas the permission of one of them has expired. Furthermore, local villagers
have been harvesting the salt traditionally for many centuries without a need to get
permission. The amount of salt that is harvested by them is estimated to be 1000 tons per
year. The amount of harvest has decreased because of the low income of this job compared to
other sectors such as agriculture and services. However, there are new requests to get
permission from DOE to harvest salt from the lake due to the low water level. Therefore, the
provincial DOE in EA and WA will grant permission to individuals or companies within
some conditions for harvesting salt starting the next year 19 (Yekom2, 2002; Respondent12,
2011; Respondent15, 2011).
Fisheries Company
Shilat (Fisheries Company of Iran) is a governmental company that manages, conserves, and
exploits the aquatic resources. Some intensive studies had been under taken by Shilat based
on a contract with the Artemia Reference center (Belgium) between 1995 and 1996. Shilat
got the first license to harvest about six thousand in three years between 1999 and 2002 to
evaluate and estimate Artemia resources. As the lake has been designated a National Park
from 1997 onward and DOE is responsible for the management of the National Park, the
permission had to be granted by this department. The north part of the lake, above the Shahid
Kalantari Highway, has been seen as the most important place to harvest Artemia. Later on,
70% of fishing rights was given to German, Canadian, and Chinese companies due to the lack
of facilities of Shilat for harvesting the cysts. DOE cancelled the permission after two years
because a sharp decline in the Artemia population was observed. Until then about 200 tons of
Artemia was harvested. Moreover, Shilat had developed several fish farms including eight
reservoirs and diversion dams and five ponds to foster both species of warm and cold water
fishes. These farms produce about 300-400 tons of fish each year. The company grants
licenses for fishing to cooperative companies /individuals (Yekom2, 2002; Yekom3, 2002;
Yekom1, 2002).
Locals and tourists
Locals and tourists can also be considered as system builders as they play a role in creating
and developing the system. They can be divided to different groups who harvest reeds, use
therapeutic mud for health, vegetation as food for their livestock, and waterbirds as source of
food for themselves or sell to the others.
The local people have been using reeds for more than 18 years to graze their livestock and as
roofing material for their houses. Natural Resources Office had leased these reed beds to the
local villagers in the past. The amount of harvesting has been declined due to dead of reed
beds after 1999. The DOE does not permit reed harvesting in the breeding places for
migratory birds. Moreover, giving permission for harvesting is restricted between May and
August (Yekom2, 2002; Respondent15, 2011).
19
New Year in Iran starts at 20 March 2012.
49
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
URUMIA LAKE BASIN
There are about 730 thousand tourists who visit the lake each year to take the advantages of
therapeutic water and the mud besides spending their leisure time along the lake. The mud of
the lake has not been used for economical purposes. There are few facilities to provide the
visitors with a place to stay, rest, and use medicinal baths (Yekom2, 2002).
Some of locals have used the grasslands and prairies along the shore of the lake and islands
as a place for livestock grazing. People get permission from the DOE for using the land
(Yekom2, 2002).
DOE gave permission to at least 7 people in each village near the lake to hunt the permitted
species of bird during a specific period of time. In a study conducted in 2001, 160 hunters
were identified from 53 villages who hunted about 7.6 thousand birds annually. However, the
number of permission was reduced to 3 in each village to protect the lake and its water birds.
DOE has licensed hunting in some cases for the ecological need to balance the population of
some animals/birds in the basin like Ovis in Kabudan Islands (Yekom2, 2002).
Provincial governors
The provincial governor is as the highest authority in a province. They are responsible for
inter-sectoral coordination of plans and programs on the provincial level. So, all the
organizations and main offices have to report to the provincial governor because of the
provincial policies. However, the general policies of their parent ministries allow these
organizations and offices to act independently of the province (Yekom3, 2002).
Municipality
The only available information about municipality was that this organization is headed by a
mayor. Each mayor is elected by the Islamic Councils of the related city and the Islamic
Councils are elected by the direct votes of citizens of a city.
4.1.4. Software
Software refers to the regulations and law that play an important role in the conservation of
the ULB. The national development plans had a great influence on increasing water
consumption in the region and therefore they will be described in this part. It was noted in
chapter two that a national committee and a regional council were established for sustainable
management of Lake Urumia. Since this new formation has started its activities, the previous
structure and regulations will not be discussed here. Just it should be noted that there was no
integrated management in the region and each province managed its natural resources
separately.
Development plans are national policies and strategies that are defined in a five year plan.
The first development plan (1989-1993) was known as the Construction Plan and therefore
was mainly focused on the reconstruction of war damages after the war between Iraq and Iran
during 1980-1988. Although the environmental goals and policies were considered in the
development plan, economic growth was the major objective. The plan emphasized on selfsufficiency in the strategic crops. There was no provincial DOE to implement the national
policies (Yekom3, 2002; GOK, 2007; Jame-jam, 2012).
50
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
URUMIA LAKE BASIN
In the second development plan (1994-199820) well-known as Economic Stabilization Plan,
environment was one of the main concerns. Restructuring of the DOE, and coordinating the
environmental plans and schemes with international agreements took place in this period.
Implementation of EIA for large-scale projects became compulsory. Moreover, quantitative
objectives for reduction of pollutants, creation of green areas, reduction of ozone depleting
substances and reduction of biochemical oxygen demands in rivers were determined for the
first time in Iran. However, according to the report by Yekom (2002) both provinces of EA
and WA gave priority to the economic growth over the environment regarding their belief
that economic growth and environmental preservation are incompatible (Yekom3, 2002).
Environmental care became mandatory in the third development plan (1999-200321) wellknown as Competitive Economic Development. The policies were divided into sectoral and
intra-sectoral for the first time. The environmental conservation was mentioned in the intrasectoral policies. However, the integration of environmental concerns into the sectoral
policies remained a problem. Yekom 4 (2002) explains that the third plan comprised some
policies regarding the management of the lake such as raising public awareness and public
participation. Furthermore, provincial environmental offices were established and an EIA for
large projects were implemented.
The fourth development plan (2005-2009) was based on a twenty year vision for the country.
Article 67 of the plan explicitly referred to Lake Urumia: “Ecosystem management plan for
sensitive ecosystems e.g. Uromiyeh Lake management shall be prepared and implemented,
the Government assisted by relevant entities shall review legislations contributed to issuance
of hunting and gun bearing permissions” (Gostaresh, 2009; Pandam4, 2005).
The author did not find any specific information regarding Lake Urumia in the fifth
development plan (2010-2015). However, article 107.A emphasizes on development and
implementation of an integrated ecosystem management.
4.2. Interaction between system components
As it was mentioned in the section 3.1, when the characteristic of a system component
changes it will affect the characteristics of other component(s). The interactions between the
components of the system will be described in this part with a focus on those that faced
changes in their characteristics. Actually, hardware, orgware, and software are all related in
many ways and therefore in describing those components many interactions have already
been given. Therefore, this section will only zoom in on a few examples. In addition, the
effects of those components that have been changed on other components will be analyzed.
Figure 12 illustrates the components of the ULB and their interaction.
Artemia is considered as the starting point of the description because of its importance role in
the ecosystem of the ULB. The red connectors in figure 12 show how components depend on
20
Another report mentions the period of the second development plan between 1995 and 1999 (Gostaresh,
2009).
21
Another report mentions the period of the third development plan between 2000 and 2004 (Gostaresh, 2009)
51
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
URUMIA LAKE BASIN
the other components. Artemia uses the algae in the lake as food while the migratory water
birds eat the Artemia and fishes. So, any change in the population of the Artemia and fishes
will negatively affect the number of migratory birds in Lake Urumia. Salinity of the lake is
the main factor influencing the reproduction of Artemia. If the salinity of the lake increases
above 250 g/l, the Artemia cyst cannot hatch. In 1999-2000, salinity level was recorded to be
262.5-303 g/l.
Provincial offices of
Industry, Mine, and
Trade
Provincial
governors
Locals
and
tourists
Salt
DOE
Mines
Algae
Municipalities
Railroad
Industrial
towns
Artemia
Roads
Provincial offices
of Transportation
and Housing
Airports
Shilat
Islands
Universities
& research
centers
Fishes
Ports
Department
of Jihad-eAgriculture
Water
birds
Protected
mammals
Agriculture
Locals
and
tourists
Medical
herbs
Locals and
tourists
Water
Pasture
Dams
System
Component
Water
Boards
Dependent on each other
Reeds
Manage
Have impact
System
Builder
Figure 12- The components’ interaction
52
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
URUMIA LAKE BASIN
Some of birds are attracted to the fish farms. However, fish farmers shoot at them because
they wound many fishes while taking only some of them for eating. Furthermore, salt crystals
make the birds’ feathers sticky due to high salinity of the lake. Besides the crystal salts, the
disturbance by the hunters, boats either for tourism or harvesting Artemia, some of roads, and
railroads close to their breeding area have been identified as disturbance. Therefore, the birds
have hardly visited the lake and its wetlands since few years. This has caused a negative
influence on the tourism of the area. In past, locals got permission for hunting the water birds
either for eating or selling. So, the decrease in the population of the birds visiting the lake has
influenced them as well.
Salinity is dependent on the water inflow to the lake and evaporation from the lake surface.
Decrease in the amount of water flow into the lake and increase in evaporation from the lake
have increased salinity of the lake and have caused drop in the lake water level. The islands
within the lake and ports around the lake are dependent on the lake water level. Therefore,
some of islands have joined the land mass and majority of the ports had to stop their
activities.
Moreover, there is shortage of water in the islands because of prolonging droughts. So, the
mammals on the islands walk out of the islands to search for water and lose their way in the
dried part of the lake. The DOE had tried to provide water for the wildlife in the islands and
proposed some plans in order to solve the problem permanently. Finally, the medical herbs
used by the locals and tourists are not any more active as the result of dropping in the lake
water level. This negatively influenced the tourism in the area.
The two following factors: increase in water consumption and drought have affected
negatively the amount of water inflow to the lake. Drought is categorized in natural
environment which is beyond the control of the actors. However, increase in the water
consumption is associated with the population growth and the development plans. Building
more industrial cities, increasing the land under cultivation, more exploitation of mines
together with larger population has led to consumption of more water. Looking at the figure
12 and considering the category used to describe the system components, it can be concluded
that actors involved facilitate their lifestyle by developing the hardware and software to
enhance the benefits that nature provide them while neglecting the interaction among the
system components and their consequences. This means that they forgot to consider the lake
water rights in droughts and even increasing their water consumption.
4.3. System’s environment
The environment of the system is divided into the social and natural environment. The social
environment provides some information related to the society, religion, economic and
political status of the system whereas the natural environment describes geography,
precipitation, temperature and other physical aspects of the system.
53
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
URUMIA LAKE BASIN
4.3.1. Social environment
The social environment factors that are beyond the control of the actors will be described in
this part. So, a short description of the culture including language, religion, age ratio, gender
ratio, and literacy rate of the inhabitants will be presented at first. Furthermore, population
and its distribution between the urban and rural areas will be described. Later on, an overview
of the role of the three main economic sectors including agriculture, industry, and services in
creating job and income in the ULB will be studied. Finally, an overview of each province
will be provided.
Culture
A large population of the basin (72.5%) speaks Turkish, less than 7% Kurdish, and the rest
speak other languages such as Armenian, Assyrian or a combination. The dominant religion
within the basin is Islam in which about 71% of the inhabitants are Shi'a (Shiite), 7% are
Sunni, and the rest follow Christianity and Shafei (of Sunni). However, within the ecological
zone, more than 90% are Turk and more than 90% are Shi'a. Kurdish people mainly live in
Kurdistan and parts of West Azarbaijan and the majority of them are Sunni (Yekom2, 2002;
Water and Wastewater Macro Planning Bureau, 2010; CIWP, 2010).
The information regarding the age distribution of the inhabitants was only found for the rural
areas shown in table 13 which indicates that more than half on the population are in working
age (Water and Wastewater Macro Planning Bureau, 2010).
Table 13- Distribution of age in the rural areas of the basin
Source 16: (Water and Wastewater Macro Planning Bureau, 2010)
Age
(year)
0-14
15-64
>65
1986 (%) 2006 (%)
41.3
54.1
4.6
24.9
68.9
6.1
The gender ratio recorded in 2006 shows a ratio of 102.7 males to 100 females in both urban
and rural areas. The ratio had a slight decrease compared to the number recorded in 1986
(Water and Wastewater Macro Planning Bureau, 2010)
The literacy rate of urban areas in the basin increased from 64.7% in 1976 to 85.2% in 2006
whereas the rate for rural areas increased from 36.8% in 1976 to 71.9% in 2006 (Water and
Wastewater Macro Planning Bureau, 2010).
Population
As it was mentioned in the introduction the ULB is shared between three provinces of EA,
WA, and Kurdistan. More than 50 percent of its population lives in EA, about 41 percent in
WA, and finally less than 5 percent in Kurdistan (Water and Wastewater Macro Planning
Bureau, 2010).
54
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
URUMIA LAKE BASIN
More than half of the population lives in urban areas according to the statistics of 1986 and
2006, although the number of villages (3027) is much more than the number of cities (57) in
the basin. There are crowded cities in the basin like Tabriz and Uromiyeh with high
population density. Tabriz is the fourth and Uromiyeh is the tenth populated city in Iran.
Moreover, the ecological zone in the ULB shows an opposite trend where about 60% of
inhabitants live in the villages (Water and Wastewater Macro Planning Bureau, 2010; CIWP,
2010).
The role of economic sectors in creating job and income
Table 14 illustrates the distribution of employed people for the three economic sectors
industry, agriculture, and services in urban and rural areas. The agriculture sector comprises
farming, animal husbandry, apiculture, horticulture, and aquaculture (Water and Wastewater
Macro Planning Bureau, 2010).
Table 14- Distribution of employed people in rural and urban areas in 1986 and 2006
Source 17: (Water and Wastewater Macro Planning Bureau, 2010)
Economic sector Agriculture (%)
Year
1986
2006
Urban
6
5.7
Rural
55.2
53.7
Industry (%)
Services (%)
Urban
39.1
37
Urban
54.9
57.3
Rural
26.7
26
Rural
18.1
20.3
It should be noted that the unemployment rate has increased in both urban and rural areas of
the basin within 20 years. In the urban area, the rate has gone up from 8.49% in 1986 to
10.8% in 2006 where in the rural area the rate has increased from 6.54% in 1986 to 8.2% in
2006 (Water and Wastewater Macro Planning Bureau, 2010).
As table 14 showed, the services sector has the largest contribution to urban employment and
consequently to GDP (58%) while the agriculture sector plays the major role in rural
employment. The share of the agriculture sector in GDP is 15% and Industry 27% (Water and
Wastewater Macro Planning Bureau, 2010).
The industry sector share to the economic added value of EA has increased between 2000 and
2006 by 8.1%. However, the services sector still has the highest share and the agriculture
sector has the lowest share in 2006. There is no specific change for the agriculture sector
within the mentioned period, but an increase in industry sector and a slight decrease in
services sector. The services sector has the highest share in the added value of WA, but
agriculture and industry sectors are in the same level at around 20%. The author did not find
information related to the share of important economic sectors in the added value of
Kurdistan. (Mahab-Ghodss, 2010).
In general, East and West Azarbaijan are dependent on agriculture sector. One of the reasons
that this fact has not been shown in their added value is difference between the economic
value of products in industry and agriculture. For example, the prime cost of 1000 kg apple is
55
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
URUMIA LAKE BASIN
3 thousands toman22 where as the prime cost of a tractor is 10 million toman. But 90% of
water consumption in the basin can be contributed to the agriculture sector. Furthermore,
many occupations in the industry and services sectors are dependent on the agriculture sector
such as tractor manufacturing, fruit compote manufactures, and services related to transport
or supply (Respondent9, 2011).
An overview of each province
Tabriz, the capital of EA, has always been one of the important political, economic, and
cultural centers in the history of Iran. There are many industrial units such as oil,
petrochemical, machinery, and cement where some of them work both on a national and
international level. Thriving commercial and industrial activities, availability of
governmental agencies and organizations, and existence of academic and cultural centers has
turned the city to an immigration city. Moreover, the city is the second touristic city of the
country due to its facilities such as an international airport, good railroad and road networks,
and an international exhibition. Despite turning into an industrial city, the city has
modernized its agro system and the fruit gardens are part of its beautiful landscape. The
province’s water consumption is at 95% capacity of its maximum capacity and therefore it
may be concluded that EA has almost reached its saturated point in terms of development.
However, the water consumption in a region should not be more than 60% of its maximum
(Respondent9, 2011; Water and Wastewater Macro Planning Bureau, 2010).
The main occupation in Uromiyeh, the capital of West Azarbaijan, is farming, but industrial
and services activities have also increased significantly in the last five decades. The city is
surrounded by apple and grape gardens on the one hand and many small and big industries on
the other hand. Growth and expansion of the urban areas especially in Uromiyeh city has
decreased the area available to agriculture around the city. Moreover, the villages around the
city have also been embedded in the urban context. Uromiyeh has been well known for the
peaceful coexistence of different ethnic and religious groups in the city since long time ago.
The main population of the city (86%) is Turk, about 11% of the population Kurd and the rest
are Persian, Assyrian, and Armenian (Water and Wastewater Macro Planning Bureau, 2010).
A small part of Kurdistan is located within the basin. Only city called Saghez and a few
villages lie within this area. In this region, one third of the people work in agriculture. There
is a tobacco factory in Saghez founded in 1960 and therefore influenced the pattern of
cultivation in the city. However, the company is not doing well because there are not many
customers for its product. Aquaculture also has become more common in recent years. The
province has not been developed in most aspects including agriculture. There are 5 major
basins in the province that leads to Persian Gulf, UL, Caspian Sea, and Iraq, but the province
uses only a small part of its water resources. Per capita income of the province is one of the
lowest in the country. After the Iraq-Iran war, Kurdistan could not benefit from the regional
development like EA and WA. Since the water management was regional and water
resources of this province were divided between three provinces of Kermanshah, Zanjan, and
22
Rial is the official unit of currency in Iran, but nowadays toman, which is the super unit equal to 10 rials, is
more common among people.
56
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
URUMIA LAKE BASIN
Azarbaijan, the water resources development projects were registered in the name of the other
provinces (Water and Wastewater Macro Planning Bureau, 2010; Respondent9, 2011;
Respondent2, 2011; Respondent13, 2011; Hashemi 2, 2009).
4.3.2. Natural environment
The natural environment factors that are out of the control of the actors involved including
temperature, precipitation, humidity, and evaporation will be described in this part. Besides
the factors mentioned above, the geology of the basin and water resources availability are
other factors out of the control of system builders which were described in chapter two and
four.
The long term average for precipitation in the basin has been recorded to be 345.523 mm over
a period of 21 years (1978-1998). During the drought between 1998 and 2001, the amount of
precipitation was reduced by 38% compared to the long term average. In general, the average
annual precipitation in the basin varies between 203 and 688 mm. The maximum
precipitation takes place in spring whereas the minimum precipitation occurs in summer
(Water research institute, ITC, Wetlands International, Yekom, Pandam, 2006; Dinpashoha,
Fakheri-Farda, Moghaddamb, Jahanbakhshc, & Mirnia, 2004).
The average annual temperature in the basin varies between 6.4 °C and 13.2°C. The hottest
months occur between 23 July and 22 August while the coldest period is between 22
December and 20 January. The difference between the hottest and coldest temperature has
been recorded 22.3°C and 28.3°C in two different meteorological stations in the basin. The
hottest and coldest temperature were recorded -7.6˚ C and 26.4˚C (Yekom1, 2002).
The average annual evaporation in the basin is reported 1499mm by Yekom (2002) with a
variation between 1000 mm and 2100 mm. Moreover, the report indicates that the annual
evaporation form the lake surface is between 894 mm and 1172 mm. In 2005, Dutch experts
have calculated the evaporation in the basin for a wet year (1993-1994) 1173 mm and for a
dry year (1999-2000) 1193 mm. The measured annual evaporation from the lake surface
varies between 894 mm and 1172 mm (Hashemi, 2008; Water research institute, ITC,
Wetlands International, Yekom, Pandam, 2006).
The average annual relative humidity of the basin is reported to be 65% where monthly
information shows a variation between 44% and 90% relative humidity. The average wind
speed across the lake has been measured 3.2 m/s in the direction of southwest. In general, the
strongest winds in the region come from the west and southwest (Yekom1, 2002).
To conclude, the lake and its wetlands have unique ecological characteristics and act as an
important sink for sediments, nutrients, and pollutants from river inflows. Moreover, the
wetlands recharge the aquifers and therefore prevent salt water intrusion from the lake to the
23
To provide better insight, the average annual precipitation in the Netherlands between 1928 and 2008 was
calculated 765 mm, but the average annual precipitation in Iran was reported about 241 mm between 1956 and
1998 (Dinpashoha, Fakheri-Farda, Moghaddamb, Jahanbakhshc, & Mirnia, 2004; Jacobs, Heusinkveld, & and
Holtslag, 2009).
57
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
URUMIA LAKE BASIN
groundwater close to the lake. They also play a role in moderating temperature and humidity
of the surrounding area.
Water demand has increased as a result of population growth and development plans in the
region, especially in EA and WA. These developments were initiated by government to make
Iran more self-sufficient in its food supply after the Iraq-Iran war 1980-1988. Controlling
water supply by building dams in almost all of the rivers in the region has provided the
opportunity for further development not only in the agricultural sector, but also in industry
sector especially in EA.
Despite bringing the environmental care in the second national development plan, allocating
water to the lake and its wetlands has not been a high priority for the provinces. They have
focused on development to become independent for strategic crops. Preserving natural
resources seemed to be incompatible with economic growth. Therefore, during droughts
water consumption did not decrease in order to compensate for limited supply. So, the lake
was the last in line to receive water.
Moreover, the large part of the population is in the working age between 15 and 64 which
requires creating job opportunities by the provincial governors. Agriculture is one of the main
activities in the basin area with the highest share in water demand. East and West Azarbaijan
are dependent on agriculture as many of their activities in the industry and services sector are
also related to the agricultural crops. Kurdistan, however, has a small share of the basin while
providing a big part of water supply to the lake and its wetlands. Kurdistan did not start its
development with the other two provinces in the basin and therefore is less wealthy.
Management of water resources and the environment were divided amongst provincial
governmental departments, however, the responsibility of Lake Urumia as National Park was
with the provincial DOE in WA. Finally, an integrated water management plan was
developed in 2008. Furthermore, the lake and its wetlands’ right for water, in the process of
water allocation for the basin, were formalized in 2010. Further water developments have
been prohibited, building new industries that requires a lot of water is forbidden, and for
major developments an EIA is required. In addition, 24 executive plans have been proposed
to reduce water consumption; however, the lake is still in critical situation.
Based on the allocated water in 2010, EA and WA have to decrease their water consumptions
while Kurdistan can continue its development. The provinces faced difficulties for decreasing
their consumption as they have to decrease the amount of water that has been allocated to
people. Therefore, they used the extra option of transferring about 900 MCM water from
another region. The current conflicting claims are related to implementation of the executive
plans. However, the main conflict remains on reducing water use.
58
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
GRAPH MODEL FOR CONFLICT RESOLUTION
5. GRAPH MODEL FOR CONFLICT RESOLUTION
This chapter intends to introduce a graph model for conflict resolution as an appropriate
method to study the behavior of the actors involved in the process of water allocation. The
application of the model helps to find out what is most likely to happen at the end of the
process and how the conflict may evolve to a final resolution. Chapters two and four have
provided a better understanding about the ecological problems facing the lake. It has also
been clarified that continuing the current situation not only has environmental consequences
for the future of the basin but also major social and economic consequences for the
inhabitants living around the lake and wetlands. Despite the effect of drought in creating the
problem, human activities have been detected as the second reason.
Calculation and acceptance of allocating water among the stakeholders including the lake and
three provinces of WA, EA, and Kurdistan has been recognized as one of the main steps
toward maintaining the lake. The next step is allocating water in each province among
different sectors including industry, agriculture, and domestic users. To show how the model
can be applied in this stage, a Graph model for conflict resolution will be applied to three
phases consisting of the development of an integrated water management plan, water
allocation to the lake and wetlands, and the implementation of the executive plans for
supplying the water allocated to the lake by three provinces. The application of a graph
model for conflict resolution to the first two phases aims to study the history of the decision
making process in order to provide a better understanding about the dispute. Moreover, the
study of the last phase will help to identify the possible outcome of the process and
suggestions for a better outcome if necessary.
5.1. First phase_ an integrated water management plan
The CIWP regarding Lake Urumia has started its work since 2005. The development and
implementation of a management plan considering ecology and environment for the critical
ecosystems especially Lake Urumia was mentioned in the fourth development plan released
on September 2004. There have been other projects conducted before 2005 considering
ecological threats to the lake and its satellite wetlands and presenting possible actions to
maintain the ecological values of the lake basin or even preparing an integrated water
resources management for the lake basin. Some of these projects had at least one workshop
where actors participated in the process to be informed about the situations and requirements
for maintaining the lake, but none of them were executed. It can be explained that the former
projects highlighted mainly ecological threats to the basin and decision makers in the basin
area gave priority to economic growth as it was mentioned in the section 4.4. Specifying the
development of a management plan for the lake in the fourth national development plan has
seen as the main incentive for the start of CIWP in 2005.
The Graph model for conflict resolution describes the situation in October 2008 with two
main decision makers in the first phase: DOE and Governmental Organizations. The CIWP as
the representative of DOE aims to develop an integrated management plan for Lake Urumia
in a participatory process with actors including provincial governmental and
nongovernmental organizations in WA, EA, and Kurdistan and based on international best
59
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
GRAPH MODEL FOR CONFLICT RESOLUTION
practices. The Governmental Organizations represent the provincial water boards, DOEs, and
Departments of Jihad-e- Agriculture. The main reason to consider them as one decision
maker is that their interests are more or less the same. Moreover, they have similar strategies
toward the CIWP and finally, to simplify the model by limiting the number of decision
makers and their possible actions. According to the long term provincial development
strategies, Governmental Organizations aim to continue their growth especially in the
agriculture sector and control their surface water. It should be noted that preservation,
restoration and development of natural resources and environment are mentioned in the long
term objectives of Governmental Organizations as well (Water and Wastewater Macro
Planning Bureau, 2010). The decision makers and their corresponding actions are listed in
table 15.
Table 15- decision makers and their actions for the first phase
Decision
makers
Options
CIWP
Governmental
Organizations
1. Support: develop an Integrated Management Plan for Lake Urumia
with financial support24 for actions to maintain the lake and wetlands
2. Develop: develop an integrated management plan without financial
support
3. Accept: accept and implement the integrated management plan
4. Postpone: accept and postpone the implementation of the integrated
management plan
5. Not accept: not accept the integrated management plan
There are 5 options and therefore 25=32 possible states for this model. The following
techniques in GMCR II have been used to generate the feasible states shown in the table 16:
“Mutually Exclusive options” and “At least one options”. Mutually Executive Option
indicates that each decision maker can only choose one option among his/her possible actions
where “At Least one options” points that each decision maker has to choose at least one of
his/her options. In this model, CIWP has to choose one option between its two options while
the same situation is valid for Governmental Organizations.
Table 16- The feasible states for the first phase
Decision
makers
CIWP
Governmental
Organizations
24
Actions
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Support
Develop
Accept
Postpone
Not accept
Feasible states
1
Y
N
Y
N
N
2
N
Y
Y
N
N
3
Y
N
N
Y
N
The financial support would be provided by the government at the national level
60
4
N
Y
N
Y
N
5
Y
N
N
N
Y
6
N
Y
N
N
Y
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
GRAPH MODEL FOR CONFLICT RESOLUTION
The feasible states will be ranked according to the relative preference of each decision maker.
There are two methods available in GMCR II to rank the states: “Option Weighting” and
“Option Prioritizing”. Table 17 presents the weights given to each option from view point of
each decision maker.
Table 17- Weighing option from each decision maker point of view for the first phase
Decision
makers
CIWP
Governmental
Organizations
Options
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Support
Develop
Accept
Postpone
Not accept
Option weight
Governmental
CIWP
Organizations
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
-1
-1
CIWP rank action 1 higher than action 2 because it intends to find a way for maintaining the
lake and the previous experiences have shown that actors are reluctant to take action for
maintaining the lake because their main interest is economic. Therefore financial support can
be seen as an incentive for actors to accept and implement the integrated management plan.
However, Governmental Organizations have to develop and implement a management plan
for Lake Urumia as it was mentioned in the fourth development plan. It is clear that CIWP
would like that Governmental Organizations accept the integrated management plan and
implement rather than accept and postpone the implementation of the integrated management
plan. Not accepting the integrated management plan is the least preferred option as the aim of
project is to develop a plan to be implemented.
Governmental Organizations prefer that CIWP supports financially the implementation of
integrated management plan as they have to develop and execute a management plan anyway
because it has mentioned in the fourth development plan. However, they prefer to postpone
the execution of the plan because they have to not only cancel their development plans but
also reducing their current water consumption in order to maintain the lake. Option five has
become the least option for the Governmental Organizations since they got familiar with
economic and social consequences if the lake continues to become smaller during the process
of developing the plan. Table 18 demonstrates the preference of each decision maker for
possible outcomes.
Table 18- Preferences of each decision maker towards the possible outcomes for the first phase
Decision makers
CIWP
Governmental
Organizations
1
Feasible states
3
2
5
4
6
3
4
6
61
1
2
5
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
GRAPH MODEL FOR CONFLICT RESOLUTION
The next step is the stability analysis in GMCR II with four criteria including “Foresight”,
“Disimprovement”, “Knowledge of preferences”, and “Strategic risk” from the view point of
one of the decision makers. It is assumed that CIWP foresees variable steps movement when
evaluating the consequences of its initial move. This decision maker considers strategic
Disimprovement which means that he will consider the preference of all actors in deciding
his initial move, and finally he accepts risk. The calculated equilibria by GMCR II is the state
3 and 425 that indicates whether CIWP develop an integrated management plan or develop
and support financially its execution phase, Governmental Organizations will accept but
postpone the implementation of the integrated management plan.
What happens in reality is more likely to the state 3 where CIWP declares the financial
support of the implementation and Governmental Organizations accept the integrated
management plan but postpone the implementation of the plan. The integrated management
plan developed by CIWP for the lake in a participatory process with stakeholders and actors
involved was signed on October 2008 by Head of DOE, Ministries of Energy and Agriculture
and Governors of three provinces under a Memorandum of Understanding. The plan was
introduced as the basis of activities in the ULB by the Cabinet in April 2010 which can be
seen as a political and managerial support from high-level authorities of the country. Later
on, the deputy head of president was selected as the head of national committee in 2010. At
last, a final version of the Memorandum of Understanding was published on May 2010
indicated that actors participated in the meetings on July and November of 2007 had agreed
that the lake is challenging serious environmental problems and all actors should put effort to
save the lake (CIWP, 2010; Hashemi, 2008).
The actual behavior of the decision makers in this phase is the same as the graph model for
conflict resolution has showed. However, implementation of the model by one of the decision
makers (CIWP in this case) in an early stage could help to arrive to another outcome such as
state 1. This could be done by influencing the preferences of the Governmental Organizations
or bringing another actor or option in the process of decision making. For example,
legalizations by the national government could influence the preferences of the decision
makers as it did in past. In normal situation, Governmental Organizations would prefer option
3(not accept the integrated management plan) but bringing development of a management
plan for Lake Urumia in the fourth national development plans influenced the Governmental
Organizations’ preferences. Moreover, the introduction of integrated management plan as a
basis of activities at Urumia Lake can be considered as an action that had influenced the
preferences of the Governmental Organizations to form the executive committee. To sum up,
the application of the model might help the CIWP to bring an extra option for execution of
priority actions along with the development of an integrated management plan. The option
could be added to the process through an extra legalization by the national government which
that also becomes a decision maker in the process.
25
Other solution concepts have also been applied, but the result is the same.
62
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
GRAPH MODEL FOR CONFLICT RESOLUTION
5.2. Second phase_ water allocation for the lake
As it was mentioned in the chapter two, the integrated management plan signed by the actors
in 2008 comprises a 25 year vision, goal, and three objectives. Furthermore, a long term and
short term goal were defined for each objective including some priority actions. Agreement
on a water allocation plan for the basin is one of the main actions in the integrated
management plan. The action aimed to prepare a plan for allocating the water between three
provinces and the lake by considering the ecological water requirement of the lake and its
wetlands. There have been no formal water rights for the lake and wetlands before that. The
lake had received water from direct precipitation over the lake and the water surplus from the
rivers flowing into the lake.
A PhD work done by the project manager of CIWP appointed minimum of 3100 MCM water
required for sustaining the ecological and hydrological functioning of the lake. This amount
was initially accepted by the actors to be used as a constraint in the water allocation model.
The actors wanted to know the water requirement for the lake. A meeting was organized
between DOE and Ministry of Energy to make a decision about the water requirement for the
lake. However, Water Policy Allocation Commission as the representative of the Ministry of
Energy was not satisfied with the minimum amount. A graph model for conflict resolution
will be used to model the dispute for acceptance of water rights for the lake in 2010
(Hashemi, 2012).
The decision makers are the CIWP including the actors involved the project and the Water
Policy Allocation Commission. CIWP aims to start the process of water allocation between
three provinces based on the consensus for a minimum water requirement of 3100 MCM per
year for the lake by the actors involved. The Water Policy Allocation Commission, however,
intends to block the implementation of any further development plans in the basin area. A
simulation has been done by the Water Policy Allocation Commission assumes requirement
of 3900 MCM of water for the lake to maintain its ecological values. Based on the potential
surface water of 6920 MCM and the existing abstraction of 2900 MCM, there is no water
available for further allocation by the Ministry of Energy (Hashemi, 2012).
CIWP will have to defend the 3100 MCM allocated to the lake, since it was agreed upon with
the decision making process. Therefore, it can insist on it or even go to the High Water
Counsel for approval of this amount. If CIWP chooses the first option, the Water Policy
Allocation Commission can either accept or oppose it. However, when the CIWP decides to
request for approval, the Water Policy Allocation Commission has the option to block the
process of approval. Table 19 presents the actors and their possible actions.
Table 19- decision makers and their actions for the second phase
Decision
Options
makers
1. Insist: insist the minimum ecological water requirement for the lake as
CIWP
a constraint for the process of the water allocation
63
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
GRAPH MODEL FOR CONFLICT RESOLUTION
WPAC*
2. Get approval: go to a higher authority to get approval for the minimum
ecological water requirement as a legal requirement for the lake
3. Accept: accept the minimum ecological water requirement for the lake
as a constraint for the process of the water allocation
4. Oppose: oppose to the minimum ecological water requirement for the
lake as a constraint for the process of the water allocation
5. Block: block the process of getting approval for the minimum
ecological water requirement for the lake
* WPAC = Water Policy Allocation Commission
Three following techniques have been used to generate the feasible states shown in table 20:
Mutually Executive Option, At Least One Options, and “Option Dependence”. The first and
second techniques apply to both decision makers. The third technique, the options for which
the occurrence is dependent on the other options will be identified. In this case, WPAC can
only block the process if CIWP decides to go to the Counsel.
Table 20- Feasible states for the second phase
Decision
makers
CIWP
WPAC
Feasible states
Actions
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Insist
Get approval
Accept
Oppose
Block
1
Y
N
Y
N
N
2
N
Y
Y
N
N
3
Y
N
N
Y
N
4
N
Y
N
Y
N
5
N
Y
N
N
Y
CIWP prefers to insist the agreed amount for the process of water allocation and Water
Policy Allocation Commission accept it, otherwise the second option will be selected and it is
preferred if Water Policy Allocation Commission does not block the process. However, the
first preference for the second decision maker is to oppose to the figure calculated by CIWP
whether this decision maker insist or get a legal requirement for the lake. Water Policy
Allocation Commission considers the existing water allocation in the basin and based on his
scenarios intends to allocate the rest of run off for the lake. Therefore, blocking the process of
legalization is not in priority for this decision maker. However, the CIWP intends to
determine a new water allocation for the ULB. Table 21 shows the preferences of each
decision maker regarding the possible outcomes.
Table 21- Preferences of each decision maker towards the possible outcomes for the second phase
Decision
makers
CIWP
WPAC
Feasible states
1
3
2
4
64
3
2
4
1
5
5
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
GRAPH MODEL FOR CONFLICT RESOLUTION
The GMCR II indicates the state 3 and 4 as equilibrium. Actually, state 3 is the first outcome
of the decision making process. However, by opposition of Water Policy Allocation
Commission, CIWP decided to go to the higher authority for making the minimum water
requirement as a legal requirement for the lake. The Water Policy Allocation Commission did
not block the process as he does not see the legalization of the figure in contrast with his
opposition. Therefore, even after approval of the minimum requirement, the Water Policy
Allocation Commission opposed to the legal requirement for being used in the process of
water allocation26. Finally, after long negotiations, an agreement was reached between CIWP
and the Water Policy Allocation Commission.
The application of the model in this stage might be a great help to shorten the process of
decision making. Because from modeling the process we can understand that the Water
Policy Allocation Commission wants to fix current usage and do not allow new
developments. CIWP, however, aims to formulize water rights to the lake and provinces. It is
clear that both of them want to formalize water rights but one based on the current
consumption and the other one want a new allocation. Thus, the process of negotiation could
take place at the first place to clarify that there is not big difference between the interests of
decision makers. The further process of allocating water between three provinces will not be
discussed here as it is beyond the focus of the second phase. Chapter two elaborate in the
criteria used to determine the water allocation between three provinces.
5.3. Third phase_ providing water for the lake
As it is demonstrated in table 22, by considering a normal year and the allocated water to the
three provinces compared to their existing withdrawals, there would be no need for reducing
water consumption. Even, each province has still some water for further development.
However, recalling from chapter two, it was mentioned by the respondents that EA has
released about 170 MCM water annually to the lake during the last ten years. Taking into
account this amount and the existing withdrawal by the province, the potential runoff will be
about 95o MCM instead of 1360 MCM.
Table 22- An overview on the existing withdrawals and water allocated to three provinces in ULB
Source 18: (Hashemi, 2012)27
Province
Potential
runoff
(MCM)
Allocated
(MCM)
Existing
withdrawal
(MCM)
WA
EA
Kurdistan
Total
3980
1360
1580
6920
2040
1080
580
3700
1910
780
220
2910
26
Send to
Lake
Urumia
(MCM)
1940
280
1000
322028
Further
development
(MCM)
130
300
360
790
The CIWP proposal was sent to the Council of Minister by the High Water Council and was approved in
2010.
27
The source has provided the data of the three first columns.
65
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
GRAPH MODEL FOR CONFLICT RESOLUTION
Moreover, Hashemi (2012), after assessing the water availability, points out that the average
of runoff is more likely to be 5000 MCM and not 6900 MCM. With regards to 3200 MCM
water rights of the lake and satellite wetlands and 5000 MCM availability of the water in the
basin, there will be only 1800 MCM water left to be allocated between the three provinces
and not 3700 MCM. All these indicate that the three provinces should decrease their water
consumption.
The third phase will focus on situation in between August and December 2011 when the
author went to Iran for visiting the lake and conducting interviews in the provinces and
Tehran. The 24 executive plans are selected to be implemented by the provincial water
boards, DOEs, and Department of Jihad-e- Agricultures. The plans can be categorized in
three groups: those inform decision makers and public, those reduce demand/improve supply,
and those manage water flows into the lake. The ten plans regarding the provincial DOEs do
not lead to any water saving, but they provide practical information for the decision makers
and the possibility of monitoring the quantity and quality of water inflow to the lake from the
provinces.
The main water saving is related to ten executive plans for the provincial water boards. Four
plans aim to reduce demand or improve supply. The other four plans aim to manage water
flows into the lake. The last two plans aim to provide further information for decision
makers. In total, eight plans from ten plans will result in water saving. However, it should be
noted that most of these plans have been implemented with the annual budget. But they are
repeated in the executive plans because they require more budgets to be implemented in a
large scale (Respondent10, 2011; Respondent16, 2011).
Two plans from five executive plans regarding the provincial Department of Jihad-eAgricultures have high potential for reducing demand. However, one of them,
implementation of modern irrigation methods, is a general plan supported by the national
government in the whole country and therefore there is enough funding for this plan.
Respondents mentioned that the implementation of the other plan, modification of cultivated
plants’ pattern, is possible if it will plan for the whole country and in a national level and
economic factors will be taken into account, otherwise it is impossible to motivate the
farmers to accept the new pattern. The potential water saving from execution of this plans has
been estimated 1800 MCM in the ULB. Moreover, there are two other plans with the aim of
managing inflows to the lake and finally one plan aims to provide further information for
decision makers (Respondent2, 2011; Respondent4, 2011).
As both provinces of EA and WA have to reduce their consumption and both have the extra
option of bringing water from another region 29, we consider them as one decision maker in
this stage named Azarbaijan while Kurdistan is the second decision maker with the
28
It should be noted that 3.1 BCM of the number is allocated to the lake and 0.073 BCM of that to the satellite
wetlands.
29
The plan for transferring water from another region will provide about 600MCM water to WA and 300 MCM
water to EA.
66
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
GRAPH MODEL FOR CONFLICT RESOLUTION
possibility for further development. Table 23 shows the decision makers and their possible
actions.
Table 23- decision makers and their possible actions
Decision
Options
makers
Azarbaijan
1. Reduce: reduce water consumption, manage water inflow to the lake,
and improve the water supply to be within their allocation
2. Bring: bring water from another region, manage water inflow to the
lake, and improve the water supply to the lake to be within their
allocation
Kurdistan
3. Release: release the saved water towards the lake
4. Use: use the saved water for further developments
Mutually Executive Option and At Least One Options are applied to generate the feasible
states shown in table 24. Both decision makers have to choose at least and at most one option
among their possible actions.
Table 24- Feasible states for the third phase
Decision
makers
Azarbaijan
Kurdistan
Actions
1.
2.
3.
4.
Reduce
Bring
Release
Use
Feasible states
1
Y
N
Y
N
2
Y
N
N
Y
3
N
Y
Y
N
4
N
Y
N
Y
Kurdistan intends to use the saved water from the implementation of the plans for its further
development. They give two reasons for their intention: their consumption is much less than
their water rights and the poor economic situation of the province especially in the region
located in the ULB. It should be noted that for withdrawing the water Kurdistan requires a
license issued by the Ministry of Energy. Further developments aim to improve the life style
of the locals by creating jobs and reduce their immigration to cities. However, they would
like to have a sustainable development to prevent facing a similar problem in the future
(Respondent13, 2011; Respondent2, 2011).
Kurdistan would also like to contribute in maintaining the lake and therefore has participated
in the process of developing executive plans. The respondents believe that the province is not
affected negatively or positively from the Lake Urumia. Kurdistan provides the main part of
the water inflow to the lake while is a customer of WA’s agricultural products. Furthermore,
there are many people working in the services sector between WA and Kurdistan which
indicates that any negative economic or social loss to WA will negatively influence Kurdistan
as well. Reducing water consumption by two provinces of EA and WA has been seen as an
incentive for further cooperation such as releasing the saved water to the lake (Respondent4,
2011; Respondent2, 2011; Respondent9, 2011).
67
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
GRAPH MODEL FOR CONFLICT RESOLUTION
Azarbaijan has faced the difficulties for reducing the water consumption as they have to cut
the allocated water to the stakeholders within the province. Therefore, they attempt to provide
the water inflow to the lake by bringing water from another region and managing the water
inflow to the lake such by cloud seeding and prevent illegal water withdrawals. It should be
reminded that both provinces got separate funding for the projects related to transfer water
from another region. However, from ecological point of view, releasing water from another
region to the lake can have some negative consequences on the ecology of the lake and its
wetlands. Ministry of Energy has accepted the option because of the lake’s value and society
demand for saving the lake. EA will use the water transferred from the other region for
drinking and industry sector. Azarbaijan prefers if Kurdistan releases the saved water towards
the lake instead of using it because it means that they can have less reduction in their
consumption (Respondent1, 2011; Respondent8, 2011). Table 25 demonstrates the
preferences of both decision makers regarding the feasible options.
Table 25- Preferences of each decision maker towards the possible outcomes for the third phase
Decision
makers
Kurdistan
Azarbaijan
Feasible states
2
3
4
4
1
1
3
2
It is assumed that both decision makers foresee two steps when evaluating the consequences
of their initial move. Furthermore, they will never consider moving towards a worse state in
response to another decision maker’s move. Decision makers consider their own preferences
in deciding their initial move and finally they ignore risk. The equilibrium after running the
analysis is state four30 which indicate that Kurdistan will use its water saved from
implementation of the plans while both EA and WA will not reduce their consumptions and
will provide water for the lake by bringing water from another region and managing the water
inflow into the lake. However, these actions may not be enough to supply the required water
to the lake and the provinces need to reduce their consumption as well. In this case, bringing
water from another region will only save some time, but the related projects are also
expensive and need several years to be implemented.
The critical situation of the Lake Urumia is a sign of unsustainable water use in the region
and therefore it is vital that the provinces take actions towards more wise use of the water
resources. Recalling back to chapter four, Azarbaijan gives priority to economic growth over
environmental conservation. Considering the decline in the lake water level as an
environmental problem and the lack of an integrated management plan between the provinces
had slowdown them for any action. The work done by CIWP clarified that the ecological
damage is only one side of reality. But mentioning fund as the main criterion for
implementation of the executive plans while having the intention to continue their
development plans may indicates the fact that they still considering the situation as an
30
Other solution concepts have also been applied, but the result of analysis part is the same.
68
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
GRAPH MODEL FOR CONFLICT RESOLUTION
environmental problem or they need further support for finding an appropriate solution for
reducing their consumption.
Reviewing phase one and two, emphasis of the fourth national decision maker for the
developing and implementing an integrated management plan for the ULB and the promised
financial support from the national government through CIWP for maintaining the lake were
the main incentives for the provinces to accept the plan. Moreover, the initiative by DOE and
CIWP to gain formal water rights for the lake helped to negotiate between the Ministry of
Energy and provinces and achieve an agreement.
So, it can be concluded that giving an economic value to the lake by development of a new
regulation will influence the preferences of the decision makers. This can be done by the
National Committee, Ministry of Jihad-e- Agriculture or Ministry of Energy. The decision
makers can enter the process and add new options or change the preferences of the existing
decision makers. For example, the National Committee may be able to use the 50th Principle
of the Constitutional Law to prohibit some of economic activities directly as the committee
prohibit further developments in Azarbaijan as well. The law is as follow: “It shall be
considered a public duty in the Islamic Republic to protect the natural environment in which
the present as well as future generations shall have a developing social life. Therefore,
economic activities or otherwise which cause pollution or an irreparable damage to the
environment shall be prohibited”.
Ministry of Energy is the main authority that issues license the provinces to use from the
water resources. Recalling from phase two, the organization is interested in maintaining Lake
Urumia and therefore intended to bock further developments in the basin. So, the
organization can play a major role in issuing permission for water consumption in the region
according to the new situation. Finally, Ministry of Jihad-e- Agriculture also can influence
the preferences of her provincial departments as the activities in this sector have a great
potential in saving water. Moreover, it was mentioned by the respondents that some executive
plans should be developed at the national level in order to be implemented by the farmers.
Kurdistan has a different situation as the province has more water rights than its
consumption. It was mentioned that it is not clear how the province will use its extra water as
they need time for further developments. It might be possible to trade it with providing the
province with modern technologies for further development. Trading water is not common in
Iran, but it might be an incentive for Kurdistan to increase its water use more slowly.
69
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
70
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
6. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
The research has aimed to contribute to the development of a roadmap towards a sustainable
water resources allocation for ULB. To achieve the objective, a main research question and
five sub-questions were formulated which will be answered in this chapter.
Obtaining a clear problem definition was considered as the first step in this research.
Therefore, the first sub-question, written below, aimed to provide an inventory of problems
related to the lake and its wetlands.
1. What are the problems with Lake Urumia?
The problems regarding the lake and its wetlands can be categorized in four following
categories: environmental, economic, social, and political. The environmental concerns
regarding the lake and its wetlands were identified at first. Some of these problems are
described below.
-
Water birds, part of the unique ecosystem of the basin, have lost their habitat
The life of protected mammals on the islands is in danger because of water shortage
Artemia eggs cannot hatch because of increase in salinity of the lake
Increase in water use and decrease in water supply have led to depletion of aquifers
surrounding the lake
Discharge of agro-chemicals, industrial wastewaters, and residential sewages to
surface water is increasing
The lake is losing its beautiful landscape as some of its islands have joined to the land
mass and because of the construction of the Shahid Kalantary Highway.
Some of the wetlands have lost their functionality because of the construction of
buildings and hydraulic structures such as reservoir
There are also some other environmental concerns when the shrinking of the lake will be
continued including health problems and change in regional climate. Salt particles from dried
up part of the lake can be dispersed by wind which may cause some lung diseases.
Furthermore, the lake and its wetlands play a key role in moderation of weather in their
surroundings areas and therefore any damage in their functionality will negatively influence
the regional climate.
The economic problems are related to two groups of people: the locals who lost their jobs and
the provincial governments. The people who worked in the ports have lost their jobs since the
lake shoreline has receded and boating became impossible. Moreover, farmers had to stop
planting in the farming lands close the lake because the aquifers could not be recharged on
the one side due to decrease in water supply. On the other side, farmers were discharging the
same amount or even more water from the aquifers than before. This has led to salt water
intrusion and consequently decrease in the yield from farming lands. Decrease in the amount
of tourists has negatively affected those who worked in tourism and local governments. Some
projects related to tourism were prohibited around the lake by the DOE. Moreover, the water
resources developments with less than 50% progress have been canceled.
71
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Besides the economic problems, there are social problems including the increase in the
amount of immigration from the villages towards the towns and cities. Moreover, those locals
who used hunting as the source of food for their family are facing problem as the amount of
hunting has been decreased in some areas. In general, increase in the amount of
unemployment can be seen as another social problem.
Finally, the political problems refer to the local and national government. Due to importance
of Lake Urumia as a cultural heritage, the problem has been raised on the national agenda.
The fourth development plan has indicated directly development and implementation of a
management plan for the lake and its wetlands. Furthermore, the deputy head of the president
has been selected as the head of the National Committee.
It has been estimated that a minimum amount of 3100 MCM per year for the lake and 73
MCM for its wetlands in order to maintain their ecological values. This amount has been
officially approved in 2011.
Strains on the current water allocation regime in the region were investigated in order to
answer the second sub-question. The question is as follows:
2. What is the problem with water resources allocation situation in the region?
The answer is that water demand and water supply are not in balance in ULB because water
demand has increased without considering the water availability. Development in the region
is expected to continue based on figures for population growth. Also water demand from
surface water may rise to about 107% of the 2002 level by 2021. At the same time water
supply has fallen from about 6.9 BCM to about 5 BCM.
Neglecting the environmental need along with the prolonged periods of drought, starting in
1999, has amplified the negative effects of decreased water supply on the ecology of the
region. A five-meter drop in the lake water level has been observed over the last 10 years.
Only recently in 2008, an integrated water management plan was approved, but at that time
the lake was already in a bad condition due to several years of drought.
The LTS approach has been used for the basin to answer the third research sub-question as
follow:
3. What are the conflicting claims amongst the actors involved?
The result of water allocation in 2011 is shown in table 26. As you can see, there is no
problem for a normal year with a potential of 6.9 BCM. There is even some water left for
further development. So, the provinces can increase their consumptions up to about 3.7 BCM.
While recalling from chapter 2, it has been estimated that water consumption in the region
will increase to 4.19 BCM. This means that some of development plans have to be canceled.
The question will be who cuts its development and to what degree. Do all three provinces
have to cancel some of their development plans or should only one of them stop its
development and get compensation from the other two provinces.
72
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Table 26- Allocated water between provinces and the lake in 2011
Stakeholders
Water allocated based on 6.9 BCM
Estimated water allocation based on 5 BCM
Current use
The lake
3.17
2.33
N/A
WA
2.03
1.47
1.91
EA
1.07
0.78
0.78
K
0.58
0.42
0.22
Considering the current situation of the lake it can be concluded that the lake did not receive
enough water for several years. This means that the surface runoff was much less than 6.9
BCM. It has been estimated that an amount of 5 BCM seems to be more realistic number for
surface runoff in the basin. New allocations have been calculated based on the relative
relation between the runoff and previous allocations. If we assume that the lake will also get
less of the runoff, WA is consuming more than its allocation. EA is using within its allocated
water while Kurdistan has some surplus for further development. The new situation indicates
that WA needs to reduce its current consumption and stop further development. EA should
also cancel its further development. So, the conflicting claims will remain on who should
reduce its consumption and to what degree. Or how does a mediator come to an agreement
with the stakeholders to take actions for reducing their water use? Answer to sub-question 4
aims to answer this question:
4. What are the possible strategies to handle the conflicting claims?
The graph model for conflict resolution was selected to study the behavior of actors in order
to finds out the possible outcome of the negotiation process. First, the method was applied to
two past disputes for accepting an integrated water management plan and accepting water
allocation. Second, the method was used to determine the possible outcomes of the current
process in the basin. It became clear that besides budget that plays an important role in the
execution of any action, the willingness of the stakeholders will play a key role in the success
of the executive plans. Furthermore, the result of interviews showed that Kurdistan does not
intend to release the saved water from the implementation of its executive plans because the
province is using currently less than the water that was allocated to it. Currently, EA and WA
have started the implementation of the executive plans with those that manage water supply
and water demand and the extra option of bringing water from the other regions.
Statistical data shows that the actors have to decrease their water consumption not only for
providing water rights of the lake and its wetlands, but also for allowing their future demand.
Therefore, some strategies were identified for getting a more preferable outcome which is
presented in the recommendation.
By answering to the research sub-questions, the main research has been answered as follows:
How to create a sustainable water resource allocation situation for Lake Urumia?
In order to create a sustainable water allocation regime, the drawbacks of the current situation
are identified at first. The objectives for a sustainable water allocation are determined after
73
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
that. Thus, the necessary actions for achieving the objectives are formulated as are shown in
figure 13.
1.1. Determine the
potential runoff in
the basin
1. The critical
situation of the
lake and
wetlands
1.2. Allocating
water among the
stakeholders
adequate water
for the lake and
wetlands
1.3. Monitoring the
water inflow into the
lake and wetlands
2.1.1. Public awareness
Current situation
2. Increasing
demand for water
2.1. Increase
efficiency in
water
consumption
2.1.2. Training programs
water for future
need
Ideal situation
2.1.3. Economical incentives
3.1. Reduce discharge of
pollutants into the water
3. decreasing
water availability
Less water
pollution
3.2. Monitoring the quality
of water
Implementing in small scale
Implemented for normal Years
Not Implemented
Figure 13- Roadmap towards a sustainable water allocation for ULB
Three following factors are identified for increasing stress on the current water allocation
situation in the ULB: 1. critical situation of the lake and its wetlands, 2. increasing demand
for water, and 3. decreasing water availability. Consequently, objectives for creating a
sustainable water allocation are determined as follows: 1. adequate water for the lake and
wetlands, 2. water for future need, and 3. less water pollution.
Three actions are formulated for achieving the first objective. To ensure adequate water for
the lake and wetlands, the potential runoff in the basin has to be determined at first. This
action, however, has been carried out by the CIWP for normal years. At the moment, the
potential runoff for drought is under study. However, there is need for further study to get a
more accurate number for potential runoff in the basin. The next action is to allocate the
runoff in the basin amongst the stakeholders including the lake and its wetlands. This action
has also been done by the CIWP and an amount of 3.1 BCM water per year has been
formalized to the lake and 73 MCM to its wetlands. Finally, there is need for a precise
74
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
monitoring system to control the quantity of water inflow from the three provinces to the lake
and its wetlands. One of the executive plans related to the DOE aims to carry out this action.
For realizing the second objective, one main action has been proposed which is increasing
efficiency in water consumption in the basin. The action has to be implemented in the three
categories of industry and mine, agriculture, and domestic usage. Some activities have been
taken along with this action, however, in a small scale. For example, implementation of
modern irrigation systems has been supported by the national government in the agriculture
sector. Moreover, one of the executive plans aims to modify the pattern of crops which will
result in using less water. But, no plan has been defined in the executive plans in order to
increase efficiency of water consumption in the industry and mine, and domestic use. Public
awareness, training programs, and economic incentives are sub-actions that can enhance the
cooperation of stakeholders in using water more efficiently. It should be noted that public
awareness has also been considered in the executive plans.
Finally, two actions have been formulated for realizing the third objective to reduce discharge
of pollutants into water bodies. First, the wastewater and other wastes produced from the
domestic use and industry sector should be treated before being released into rivers or other
water bodies. Increasing the use of agro-chemicals in the agriculture sector will also lead to
improve the quality of water. Second, an appropriate monitoring system along with the subactions including public awareness, training programs, and economic incentives will enhance
the cooperation of stakeholders.
Media are the best means for creating public awareness. Moreover, schools and universities
can play an important role in raising awareness and training programs for using water for
domestic purposes in more efficient way. Customized training programs and workshops
should be provided for different sections of industry, mines, and the agriculture sector.
Furthermore, table 26 demonstrates who takes the identified actions for achieving the
objectives and why.
75
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Table 27- Actions for building a sustainable water allocation for ULB
Objective
1
Current
situation
Actions
Who
The provincial
waterboards
Because they manage the
water resources in the basin
DOE, Department
of Agriculture
1.2. Determine the current
water consumption
The provincial
waterboards
Because they allocate the
water between different
sectors in a province
Each sector
All the
stakeholders in a
participatory
process
To enhance the
implementaion of the
decision
DOE
Because DOE is responsible
for the lake and its wetlands
No need
Critical
situation of the
lake and its 1.3. Allocte water between
wetlands
stakeholders
2.1. Increase efficiency in
water consumption
Increase in
demand for
water
2.2. Public awareness
Because it increase the
cooperation as every body
The provincial
will play a role in increasing water boards
efficiency
Media and all the Media is responcible in
No need
sectors
educating society
All the sectors
Because they have power and Governmental
capital
organizations
3.1. Reduce discharge of
pollutants into the water
All the sectors
Because all of them are
causing pollution
3.2. Monitor the quality of
water
DOE and the
provincial water
boards
DOE is responsible for the
environment while Water
boards are responsible for
water management
Decrease in
water
avaialbilty
Why
There should be
agreement between
them about the current
consumption
To ensure an adequate
amount of water for
the environment
Governmental
organizations
3.2. Economic incentives
3
Monitor
1.1. Determine the potential
runoff
1.4. Monitor the water supply
DOE
to the lake and its wetlands
2
Why
DOE and the
provincial water
boards
Because they are
responsible for
management of water
To be sure that
companies are doing
what they proposed to
do
DOE is responsible for
the environment while
Water boards are
responsible for water
management
No need
6.1. Scientific contribution
The answer to the last sub-question will describe the scientific contribution of the research.
What is a feasible method for this type of research and policy questions?
Application of the LTS approach has facilitated obtaining the necessary information and
structuring them in a systematic way and therefore providing a clear picture of the region.
Using the title of socio-technical network for conducting interviews enhanced the willingness
of respondents to accept the interviews and give information more easily. In addition, the
approach has helped to gain better understanding about the decision makers and their
interests. Therefore, it can be concluded that the approach has also contributed in collecting
some part of the input for the graph model for conflict resolution.
The LTS approach was helpful in organizing structure, but some more detailed analysis were
needed to understand what problems were with water allocation and what conflicting claims
exist between actors. Moreover, it should be noted that the selection of the LTS approach was
not in consideration of other system approaches. Therefore, it might be possible that the use
of other system approaches would provide a similar result.
76
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
The usefulness of the graph model for conflict resolution for this kind of policy questions was
verified in this work through application of the method to previous situations and comparison
of the results with reality. It has been shown that the application of the method may shorten a
negotiation process. This can be done by identifying some strategies to change the
preferences of decision makers. For example, adding or omitting a/an decision maker(s) or
his/their option(s) can change the preferences of one or more decision maker(s). It should
also be noted that the conflicts were modeled in a simple way and with only two decision
makers, so application of other conflict analysis methods for this case could provide a similar
answer.
It can be concluded that the combination of the LTS approach and the graph model for
conflict resolution can be used to study the disputes among the stakeholders for arriving at a
resolution or more preferred outcome. But it does not necessary mean that the other methods
or application of one of them separately will not lead to similar answers. The drawback of the
combination of these two methods might be that it will take longer to carry out the research
compared to using only one of them. Thus, the combination is appropriate for the cases that
the analyst does not have a clear understanding of the dispute and getting input information
through interviews is not possible.
6.2. Recommendations for practitioners
At first, the research has provided a new insight about the problem statement. Investigation
for finding strains on the current water allocation in the basin clarified that considering the
availability of water resources and trend of water consumption, there is not enough water and
therefore provinces need to manage their consumption wisely to provide their future need.
So, the critical situation of the lake and wetlands is more or less a signal to the provinces for
their drastic increase in water consumption.
Second, application of the LTS approach helped to understand that the provinces give priority
to economic growth over the environmental conservation and therefore, loss of ecology in the
basin was an acceptable trade-off for providing better conditions for their inhabitants. The
provinces perceive the water shortage as a problem for improving their economic conditions,
so consider transferring water from another region.
Moreover, using the graph model for conflict resolution to the current dispute signifies that
the provinces will try to solve the problem of water shortage mainly through increasing the
water availability, bringing water from another region, and managing water supply for
example by dredging rivers. Giving economic value to the providing water rights of the lake
and its wetlands is suggested to influence the preferences of the decision makers involved.
For example, DOE can announce to the stakeholders that the economic activities with a high
impact on quantity or quality of water will be forbidden if they do not start actions for
reducing their impacts. This will influence the possible actions and preferences of the
stakeholders. Ministry of Energy and Ministry of Jihad-e- Agriculture can also play an
important role, for example participation of farmers in the process of decision making for
modifying the pattern of crops and providing guarantees for those farmers who change to
77
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
crops with less need of water will enhance the cooperation of farmers. The advertisement
about the crops needing less water through media, by introducing their properties and
recopies, can also increase the willingness of people towards consuming those crops and
consequently increasing market demand for them.
Third, a roadmap has been developed demonstrating the path toward a sustainable water
allocation based on the identified factors increasing strains on the current water allocation
situation in the basin. Furthermore, some actions were formulated for achieving a sustainable
water allocation which has been described in the last part.
Finally, the graph model for conflict resolution is introduced to the mediators or provinces
involved the process to be used for further phases which is allocating water in each province.
The LTS approach aids them for defining a clear problem statement, gaining insight about the
options and preferences of players in a systematic way, and identifying the necessary
strategies to get the best result. The effectiveness of method was discussed for the phases 1
and 2 in chapter 5.
6.3. Limitations
The initial intention of this work was to perform the research for one of the provinces or
stakeholders using the same river. The main reason was due to success of CIWP in allocating
water amongst the stakeholders in the basin which was indicated that more or less the conflict
in the basin level has been resolved. Therefore, it seemed more logical to move to the second
level and see how each province can decrease its water consumption. However, because of
limitation in getting information and willingness of the company, who gave the ULB, the
research has been conducted on the ULB and therefore the work has focused on general level.
Furthermore, the information used in the research has been provided mainly from the
governmental documents. The research initially aimed to conduct interviews with both
governmental and nongovernmental organizations and therefore developed two interview
protocols separately. Unfortunately, it was only possible to conduct interviews mostly with
respondents from the governmental organizations who are in the process of CIWP. The main
reason was that the problem of the lake is a sensitive issue which has also been discussed on
the national level and due to pressures on the actors and mediators involved, the
nongovernmental organizations were somehow reluctant to conduct interviews. The
limitation of time for staying in Iran to conduct interviews may have also negatively
influenced the opportunity of conducting interviews with the nongovernmental organizations.
Therefore, the interviews have been mostly conducted with the governmental respondents
who participated in the process of CIWP. This indicates that there might be bias in the
information used in the research. The strategic answers by the respondents may have also
negatively influenced the result of the interviews.
Another limitation is related to the dynamicity of a conflict which means that the input
components used to model a conflict may change over time. For example, a new
player/stakeholder may enter the process of decision making or the preferences of one player
78
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
may change over time. In this case, the developed model is not valid anymore and the conflict
has to be modeled and analyzed based on the new inputs. Thus, the real outcome from the
application of the graph model for conflict resolution for phase three in chapter five might be
different.
Finally, the research strategy is a case study and therefore the result of the work can be
generalized. However, this is one of the characteristics of case study as it intends to obtain an
in-depth knowledge about a single case, thus generalization is less important (Verschuren &
Doorewaard, 2010).
6.4. Future research
Regarding the first limitation of this work mentioned in section6.4, the LTS approach and
graph model for conflict resolution can be applied to each province, each economic sector
such as industry, or a river. The approach helps to gain better insight about the potential
disputes among the players involved in the process of water allocation, their options and
preferences. Thus, proper strategies can be identified to see how to bring the players in the
process or to arrive at a more preferable outcome. For example, the methods can be used for
stakeholders using water from Simineh River or Zarineh River as these two rivers provide the
highest supply to the lake. They can also be applied to the provinces that have to decrease
their water consumption. They can even be applied for special activity such as agriculture to
see how we can influence the preferences of farmers for reducing their water use.
Further research is necessary on validity of using the LTS approach along with the graph
model for conflict resolution to see if it facilitates the researcher to define a clear problem,
identify the conflicting claims, and provide the input information for the graph model for
conflict resolution. It should be noted that the approach has developed for the cases that the
person is not familiar with the conflict and conducting interview for getting information is not
a feasible option.
There has been an uncertainty about validity of data such as potential runoff and water use in
the basin. Although, the previous research indicated the critical situation of the lake and its
wetlands, no action has been taken until 2011. The main reason was the uncertainty of the
stakeholders involved about the validity of existing data. Hence, more research has been
conducted by different consultancy companies. Looking at the process of CIWP, we can see
that stakeholders spend about four years to develop an integrated water management plan.
Thus, further research on increasing accuracy of data will help the stakeholders to gain a
better understanding about the problem and consequently find more effective solutions in
shorter
time.
79
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
80
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
REFERENCES
REFERENCES
Aldridge, J. W. (2004). Retrieved from www.argospress.com.
Anisfeld, S. (2010). water resources (Foundations of Contemporary Environmental Studies
Series) (1 ed.). (J. Speth, Ed.) Washington: IslandPress.
Bardestani, H. (2008, November 17). Retrieved from www.Aftabir.com.
Bijker, W., Hughes, T., & Pinch, T. (1987). The social construction of technological systems.
The MIT Press.
Borna.
(2011,
December
15).
Retrieved
from
http://www.bornanews.ir/Pages/News-87034.aspx
BornaNews
Agency:
Chatterjee, K. (2010). Non-cooperative bargaining theory. In K. D. M, & C. Eden, Handbook
of group decision and negotiation (pp. 141-150). SpringerLink.
CIWP. (2010). Integrated management plan for Lake Urumia Basin.
CIWP1. (2008, August). Integrated management plan for lake Uromiyeh.
CIWP2. (2008). Report on the workshop: zoning for sustainable management of Lake
Uromiyeh.
CIWP3. (2008, August). Integrated Management Plan for Lake Uromiyeh.
Dinar, A. D., & McKinney, D. (2007). Bridges over water:understanding transboundary
water conflict, negotiation and cooperation (Vol. 3). World Scientific Publishing
Co.Pte.Ltd.
Dinpashoha, Y., Fakheri-Farda, A., Moghaddamb, M., Jahanbakhshc, S., & Mirnia, M.
(2004). Selection of variables for the purpose of regionalization of Iran’s precipitation
climate using multivariate methods. Journal of Hydrology, 297, 109-123. Retrieved
from
http://home.shirazu.ac.ir/~kompani/DryLandHydrology/papers/IransPrecipitationDinpashoh-JOH-2004-297-p109.pdf
EA-Waterboard. (2011). Managing conflcits in water resources. (S. Zad, Interviewer)
Fang, L., Hipel, K., & Kilgour, D. (1993). Interactive decision making-the graph model for
conflict resolution. Wiley.
FAO. (2003). Addressing extension and training needs of farmers with physical disabilities.
Rome.
Fraser, N., & Hipel, W. (1984). Conflict analysis models and resolutions. Elsevier Science
Publishing Co.,Inc.
81
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
REFERENCES
GOK.
(2007, 07 17). Retrieved 02 21, 2012,
http://www.magiran.com/npview.asp?ID=1502510
from
Resalat(magiran):
Gostaresh. (2009, Jan 27). Evaluation of Development Programs: 1st to 4th. Retrieved from
Gostareshonline: http://www.gostareshonline.com/economy/36625-2010-01-27-0844-49
Hashemi 1, M. (2009). Narrative policy analysis for LU:putting more salt in the lake. Tehran:
CIWP.
Hashemi 2, M. (2009). Towards sustainable water resources management in Lake Uromiyeh
Basin:A question of balance.
Hashemi, M. (2008). The status of water resources in the Lake Uromiyeh Basin .
Hashemi, M. (2012, January). A socio-technical assessment framework for integrated water
resources management (IWRM) in lake URmia Basin, Iran.
Hermans, L., El-masry, N., & Sadek, T. M. (2002). Linking actors and models for water
policy development in Egypt; analyzing actors and their options. Knowledge,
technology, & policy, 14(4), 57-74.
Hipel, K., Kilgour, M., & Fang, L. (1993). The graph model for conflict resolution.
Encyclopedia of life support systems.
Hipel, W. K., Pagade, R., & Unny, T. (1976). Metagame Theory and Its Applications to
Water Resources. Water resources research, 12(3), 331-339.
Hoepfl, M. (1997). Choosing qualitative research: a primer for technology education
researchers. Journal of Technology Education, 9(1), 47-63.
Howard, N. (1971). Paradoxes of rationality: theory of metagames and political behavior.
The MIT press.
Hughes, T. (1983). Networks of power- Electrification in western society, 1880-1930.
London: The Johns Hopkins Press Ltd.
Hughes, T. (1989). The Evolution of Large Technological Systems. In W. Bijker, T. Hughes,
& T. Pinch, The social construction of technological systems (First edition ed., pp. 5182). Cambridge, Massachusetts; London: The MIT Press.
Iranian Water Resources Management Company. (2009). Report of the current environmental
situation in Lake Urumia Basin- Upgrading the comprehensive water management
plan in Mazandaran and Lake Urumia Basin.
IYP. (2012). A general view of Iran-Transportation. Retrieved from Iran Yellow Pages:
http://www.iranyellowpages.net/en/about_iran/Economy/view_iran/iran_view3.shtm
82
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
REFERENCES
Jacobs, A. F., Heusinkveld, B. G., & and Holtslag, A. A. (2009). Eighty years of
meteorological observations at Wageningen, the Netherlands: precipitation and
evapotranspiration. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY. Retrieved
from
http://www.maq.wur.nl/NR/rdonlyres/CE35FA1C-1E96-4121-8B2CC0BDB64DDFA6/92294/Eightyyearsofmeteorological.pdf
Jame-jam. (2012). Retrieved 02 21, 2012, from
http://jjtvn.ir/display_full.aspx?data_id=13332
Jaam-e
Jam
TV
Network:
Joerges, B. (1988). Large Technical Systems: Concepts and Issues. In T. &. Hughes, The
Development of Large Technical Systems (pp. 9-36). Westview Press.
Keddie, N. (2003). Modern Iran-Roots and results of revolution. Yale University Press.
Kilgour, D. (n.d.). The graph model for conflict resolution as a tool for negotiators. Waterloo.
Kilgour, M., & Hipel, K. (2010). Conflict analysis methods: the graph model for conflict
resolution. Springer.
Kroes, P., Franssen, M., van de Poel, I., & Ottens, M. (n.d.). Treating socio-technical systems
as engineering systems: some conceptual problems.
Lenton, R., & Muller, M. (2009). Integrated water resources management in practice: better
water management for development. london: Earthscan.
Lotfi, A. (2005). Integrated management plan for Lake Urumia Basin.
Mahab-Ghodss. (2010). Economic studies of Urumia Lake Basin.
Mahab-Ghodss1. (2011). Water balance in Urumia Lake Basin.
Mahab-Ghodss2. (2011). Comprehensive watershed plan for north and noethwest of the
country. Tehran.
MahabGhodss3. (2011, August 13). Presentation on Urumia Lake basin. Tehran, Iran.
MahabGhodss4. (2011). Upgrading comprehensive water plan of the country in basins Aras,
Sefidrud, between Sefidrud and Haraz, Atrak, Uromiyeh- Economic studies of the
basin.
MPTC. (2012). Railroad history. Retrieved from Mahtab Passenger Train Co.:
http://www.mahtab-sj.ir/index.php/fa/2011-05-09-06-03-54/2011-05-09-06-05-13
Obeidi, A., Hipel, K., & Kilgour, D. (2002). Canadian Bulk water exports: analyzing the Sun
Belt conflict using the graph model for conflict resolution. Knowledge, Technical &
Policy, 14(4), 145-163.
83
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
REFERENCES
Okada, N., HipelL, K. W., & Oka, Y. (1985). Hypergame Analysis of the Lake Biwa
Conflict. Water resources research, 21(7), 917-926.
Olsson, M., & Sjostedt, G. (2004). System approaches and their application: examples from
Sweden. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Pandam1. (2005). Integrated water resources management for the Lake Uromiyeh Basin,
Module 3: water for ecosystems.
Pandam2. (2005). Integrated Water Resources Management for Lake Urommiyeh Basin.
Pandam2. (2005). Integrated Water Resources Management for Lake Urommiyeh Basin,
Module 3: water for ecosystems.
Pandam3. (2005). Integrated water resources management for the Uromiyeh Basin, Module
3: water for ecosystems.
Pandam4. (2005). Policies & Management of Wetlands-Annex B.
Radmanesh, S. (2011, Apr 23). JamejamOnline. Retrieved Feb 20, 2012
Ravesteijn, W. (2010). Technolog Dynamic. Delft.
Ravesteijn, W., Hermans, L., & van der Vleuten, E. (2002). Participation and globalization in
water system building. Knowledge, Technology & Policy, 14(4), 4-12.
United Nations. (2000). Principles and practices of water allocation among water-use
sectors. New York: United Nations Publication.
van Beek, E. (2011). (S. OloumiZad, Interviewer)
van der Velde, M., Jansen, P., & Anderson, N. (2004). Guide to management research
methods. Oxford: Blackwell Publishing.
Van der Vleuten, E. (2009). Large Technical Systems. In A. C. Technology, Oslen, J.K.B.;
Pedersen, S.A & Hendricks, V.F. (pp. 218-222). Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Verschuren, P., & Doorewaard, H. (2010). Designing a research project. The Hague: Eleven
International Publishing.
Water and Wastewater Macro Planning Bureau. (2010). Upgrading comprehensive water
plan of the country in basin Aras, Sefidrud, between Sefidrud and Haraz, Atrak,
Uromiyeh.
Water research institute, ITC, Wetlands International, Yekom, Pandam. (2006). Integrated
Water Resources Management-basic studies.
84
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
REFERENCES
WaterandWastewaterMacroPlanningBureau. (2010). Upgrading comprehensive water plan of
the country in basin Aras, Sefidrud, between Sefidrud and Haraz, Atrak, Uromiyeh.
World Water Commision. (2000). A water secure world: vision for water, life, and the
environment. London: Earthscan.
Yekom 2. (2005). Environment impacts of Urumia Lake's water resource development
projects on the lake- Water balance of the lake. Tehran.
Yekom. (2002). Management Plan for the Lake Uromiyeh Ecosystem.
Yekom1. (2002). Management Plan for the Lake Uromiyeh Ecosystem.
Yekom1. (2005). Environment impacts of Urumia Lake's water resources development
projects on the lake- Estimation of water inflow to the lake. Tehran.
Yekom2. (2002). Human activities and their impacts on the lake Uromiyeh ecosystem, Report
2 of teh EC-IIP Environmental Management Project for Lake Uromiyeh, 9 chapters.
Yekom3. (2002). Review of the capacity to manage the lake Uromiyeh ecosystem. Report 3 of
the EC-IIP Environment Management Project for Lake Urumiyeh. 4 chapters.
Yekom4. (2002). Management Plan for the Lake Uromiyeh Ecosystem. Report 4 of the ECIIP Environmental managemment Project for Lake Uromiyeh.
Yekom7. (2005). Environment impacts of Urumia Lake's water resource development
projects on the lake.
Yekom9. (2005). Environment impacts of Urumia Lake's water resource development
projects on the lake- the comprehensive plan. Tehran.
Yin, R. (2003). Case Study Research: Design and Method. United States: Sage Publications
Inc.
85
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
86
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
APPENDIX A: CIWP MANAGEMENT PLAN-VERSION 2010
APPENDICES
Appendix A: CIWP Management Plan-version 2010
Objective 1: To raise awareness of the values of and threats to the lake and satellite wetlands,
and to enhance public participation in their management
Priority Issues
Targets
Priority actions
R/P31
1. Awareness
of high level
policy
makers and
decision
makers
Long term: high
level
policy/decision
makers are
actively
supporting the
vision for the lake
by their words and
actions
Short term: high
level policy
/decision makers
are aware of the
values and threats
of the lake and
required actions
1- Establish a campaign supported by
experts from water, agriculture and
DOE to directly raise awareness of top
policy/decision-makers
2- Connect the project to the elected
representatives of the provinces (MPs)
and environment section at the
Parliament
3- Organize local, national and
international study tours/seminars for
top policy/decision-makers
4- Organize mass awareness-raising
activities, such as a human ring around
the lake during President’s visit
5- Prepare policy-maker briefing
materials (high level summaries) of
key issues
1- Concerted campaign of awareness
through the mass media, including
films, news bulletins, radio broadcasts,
TV advertisements and speeches
2- Include necessary training about
Importance, value, threats and
protection of Lake Urumia and its
satellite wetlands in high school
courses
3- Arrange visits and scientific tours
for students
4- Development of a visitor centre for
environmental awareness in both EA
and WA, including good information
materials
5- Signboards for the Lake and
satellite wetlands
6- Website about the lake
7- Training programs and resource
materials for teachers
1. Establish 2 pilot wetland
management or restoration projects in
R:DOE
2. Public
awareness
about the
values and
threats of
the Lake
Long term: People
of the basin are
actively
supporting the
vision for the Lake
by their behavior
and actions
Short term: People
of the basin are
aware of the
values and threats
of the lake and
required actions
3. Participatory
wetlands
31
Long term: Local
communities
R: responsible agent, P: partner agent
87
P: Governor,
Main
organizations,
NGOs,
Media
R: DOE
P: NGOs,
DOE,
Media,
Religious
bodies,
Ministry of
Education
& Training,
Water
Authorities,
Ministry of
Jihad-eAgriculture
R: DOE,
Ministry of
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
APPENDIX A: CIWP MANAGEMENT PLAN-VERSION 2010
Objective 1: To raise awareness of the values of and threats to the lake and satellite wetlands,
and to enhance public participation in their management
Priority Issues
Targets
Priority actions
management
and restoration
projects
with strong
engagement
of local
communities
closely involved in
management/
restoration of Lake
and all satellite
wetlands
4. Livelihood
development
in wetland
related
communities
Long term:
community
livelihood
strategies
and environmental
management plans
being
implemented
for all wetlands
related villages
each province involving and
empowering CBOs/NGOs and local
communities
2. Organize training for CBOs/NGOs
at the pilot sites
3. Organize local community
participation training workshops for
DOE staff
4. Support extension activities by 3
main organizations (DOE, Water,
Agriculture), and examine options to
establish a participatory watershed
management agency/unit
5. Use and empower university
educated people from villages to
participate in awareness and extension
process
1.Undertake PRA studies for villages
associated with pilot sites described
above
2. Prepare and implement local
community livelihood strategies for
selected villages including options for
establishing cooperatives
3. Prepare and implement
environmental management plans for
selected villages
4.Explore and develop alternative
livelihood development options for
wetland-related villages
Short term: Two
pilot projects
in each province
Short term:
community
livelihood
strategies
and environmental
management plans
for 4 villages: at
least one
alternative
livelihood
mechanism piloted
88
R/P31
Jihad-eAgriculture
P: NGOs,
Local
communities,
Agricultural
extension,
Water
Authorities
R: Local
Governors, 3
main
organizations,
Local
communities’
Leaders,
NGOs
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
APPENDIX A: CIWP MANAGEMENT PLAN-VERSION 2010
Objective 1: To raise awareness of the values of and threats to the lake and satellite wetlands,
and to enhance public participation in their management
Priority Issues
Targets
Priority actions
5. Ecotourism
Long term:
Increased number
of tourists and
managing the
number of tourists
based on capacity
of wetlands
1. Hold workshop with international
support to launch the preparation of an
ecotourism plan. Identify pilot sites
and carry out the following activities:
2. Provide facilities and support
research (particularly on marketing,
visitor potential)
3. Map and zone pilot wetlands in
relation to ecotourism activities
4. Prepare a map and show high
priority wetlands for ecotourism
5. Investigate possibility of developing
bird watching sites
6. Develop codes of practice for
tourism regarding the status of each
satellite wetland
7. Raise public awareness on Natural
tourism attractions and tourism
regulations
8. Invite local communities and
provide technical and financial support
for development and designing
tourism plans
9. Revise regulations for visiting
National Park
10. Review pilot projects and publish
results
11. Provide financial and technical
support for related research activities
before the implementation phase
12. Support local communities
(technically and financially) for
development of ecotourism, including
training youths in local communities
for leading eco-tourists
Short term: carry
out 2 pilot projects
R/P31
R: Cultural
Heritage and
Tourism
Department
P: DOE,
Local
communities,
NGOs,
Ministry of
Road and
Transportation
Objective 2: sustainable management of water resources and land use
Priority Issues
Targets
Priority actions
R/P
1. Water
supply to the
Lake and
satellite
wetlands
Long term:
Inflows meet the
requirement of the
Lake to maintain
water level above
1. Prepare an agreed integrated
management plan for water resources
of the basin on the basis of all existing
studies (including dam management
strategies)
2. Prepare an agreed Master
R:
Water
Authorities,
DOE,
Ministry of
Jihad-e-
89
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
APPENDIX A: CIWP MANAGEMENT PLAN-VERSION 2010
Objective 2: sustainable management of water resources and land use
Priority Issues
Targets
Priority actions
1274 m. amsl
2. Water
quality
3. Water use
Development Plan for water and land
resources of the catchment based on
Short term: During ecosystem approach
the coming 5 years 3. Determine an agreed range of Lake
agricultural water
water level fluctuation
uses do not
4. Planning to maintain the least water
increase and
need for the lake, to maintain its’
facilities would be ecological functions
arranged to reduce 5. Investigate feasibility for water
water uses by 3%
diversion from neighboring catchments
each year through and evaluate environmental impacts
improving
6. Support and follow up Lake Urumia
efficiencies
hydrographical studies
7. Investigate feasibility of measures to
reduce excess evaporation from the
Lake (i.e. segregation of the very
shallow parts of the Lake in dry years),
and evaluate environmental impacts
Long term:
1. Investigate the annual volume (and
Pollutant levels at sources) of inflow of chemicals,
inflows to the
nutrients, heavy metals and other
Lake meet national pollutants into the Lake and satellite
thresholds
wetlands
2. Prepare and implement plans for
Short term:
optimization of the use of agroMain sources of
chemicals in the farms
pollutants are
3. Prepare plans for, and introduce
identified and
monitoring the water quality of Lake,
quantified and a
wetlands and the main rivers within the
strategy is in place catchment area
to reduce them
4. Prepare and implement plans for
control of discharge of industrial
sewage into the water resources of the
basin.
5. Support and follow-up
implementation of Watershed Plans
and stop degradation
6. Investigate and support ecologically
feasible methods of salt harvesting
from the Lake
Long term:
1. Prepare and implement plans for
Efficiency of
improving on farm water management
irrigation
(Increase farm irrigation efficiency)
water use is
2. Support development of more
increased by
efficient water application system (drip,
sprinkler, etc)
90
R/P
Agriculture
R:
Water
Authorities,
DOE,
Ministry of
Jihad-eAgriculture,
Ministry of
Industries
and Mines
R:
Ministry of
Jihad-eAgriculture
Water
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
APPENDIX A: CIWP MANAGEMENT PLAN-VERSION 2010
Objective 2: sustainable management of water resources and land use
Priority Issues
Targets
Priority actions
R/P
15 percent
3. Support implementation of
volumetric water delivery to farms
4. Support rationalization of water
prices for agriculture
5. Prevent illegal exploitation from
ground and surface water resources
6. Introduce less-water-demanding
crops
Authority
1. Prepare an agreed land use plan in
the context of integrated management
plan of catchment area (Master
Development Plan)
2. Prepare the boundary maps of the
Lake and the satellite wetlands and
mark the boundaries
3. Identify important buffer areas
around the wetlands and
develop/implement codes of practice
(for agriculture) within them
4. Prevent illegal conversion of land
uses of natural resources (particularly
wetlands)
5. Support preparation and
implementation of watershed
management and restoration projects
R:
Ministry of
Jihad-eAgriculture,
DOE,
Water
Authorities,
Housing
and Town
Development
Government
Offices
Short term:
Efficiency of
irrigation water
use is increased by
3 percent
4. Land use
Long term:
-Land use
developments
in the catchment
area follow the
agreed plans
- All the wetlands
around the Lake
are mapped and
marked
Short term:
- An agreed plan
for land use within
the catchment is
developed
- The main
wetlands are
mapped
- 50% of the main
wetlands are
marked
91
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
APPENDIX A: CIWP MANAGEMENT PLAN-VERSION 2010
Objective 3: conservation of biodiversity, and sustainable use of the wetland resources
Priority Issues
Targets
Priority actions
R/P
1. Important
satellite
wetlands
Long term:
- Increase the
areas of sat.
wetland to
25000 ha, or;
Double the areas
of southern
wetlands
1. Develop maps and prioritize
wetlands according to Biodiversity &
Analyze the threats to the biodiversity
of important wetlands
2. Define the minimum water need of
important wetlands to maintain its’
ecological functions
3. Investigate measures and restore the
desiccated wetlands (ie..Yadegarlou,
Guerde Gheet..)
4. Improve the traditional systems of
water supply to wetlands
5. Investigate the levels of pesticide
contamination and diseases in birds
and fishes
6. Investigate measures and control
exotic fish species at satellite wetlands
7. Investigate measures and restore
Ghara Gheshlagh wetland and Otis
tarda. Population
8. Investigate measures and improve
Ghori Gol wetland and population of
white headed duckPrepare
management plans for important
satellite wetlands
9. Strengthen the management system
of the wetlands, including local
communities
1. Prepare/publish a status report on
Flamingos, with management
recommendations (including adequacy
of
breeding site/alternatives, and location
of main feeding sites)
2. Prepare and disseminate public
awareness materials on flamingos
(poster, films, car stickers etc)
3. Provide strict protection to the
breeding colony, and develop clear
codes of practice for access by
researchers in cooperation with
international experts (including for
counting, ringing and emergency
rescue of salt-affected birds).
4. Prepare a summary report on
Evaluation of the Artemia reserves,
R: DOE
P: Fisheries,
Local
Communities,
NGOs,
Natural Res.
Dept,
Water
Authority,
Ministry of
Jihad-eAgriculture,
Governor
office,
veterinary
organization,
Cultural
Heritage
Office,
Universities
Short term:
- No further
decrease in
wetland areas,
or;
- Increase wetland
areas to 2500 ha
2. Breeding
population
of Flamingo
(Phoenicopt
e-rus ruber)
Long term:
4000 pairs will
be breeding in the
Lake and Satellite
wetlands
Short term:
1000 pairs will be
breeding in the
Lake
and satellite
wetlands
92
R: DOE
P: Fisheries,
Local
Communities,
NGOs,
Universities,
Artemia Res.
Center,
Ministry of
Jihad-eAgriculture,
Governor
office,
Veterinary –
Organizations,
Universities
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
APPENDIX A: CIWP MANAGEMENT PLAN-VERSION 2010
Objective 3: conservation of biodiversity, and sustainable use of the wetland resources
Priority Issues
3. Breeding
population
of White
Pelicans
(Pelecanus
onocrotalus)
Targets
Long term:
1000 pairs will be
breeding in the
Lake
and satellite
wetlands
Short term:
750 pairs will be
breeding in the
Lake
and satellite
wetlands
4. Population
of Yellow
Deer and
Armenian
Sheep on the
islands of
the Lake
Long term:
Maintain
population in
balance with
the capacity of the
natural rangelands
Priority actions
particularly in relation to salinity, and
investigate measures for increasing the
capacities for
production
5. Prepare a summary report on
Donaliella reserves, particularly in
relation to salinity, and investigate
measures for increasing the capacities
for production
6. Investigate Flamingo samples for
pollutants and/or diseases.
7. Support scientific studies such as
PHD and M.S.Thesis
1- Prepare/publish a status report on
White
Pelicans, with management
recommendations (including adequacy
of breeding site/alternatives, and
identification of main feeding sites,
habitats and prey species, and any
conflicts with fisheries/aquaculture)
2- Protect and restore habitats and stop
degradation
3- Prepare and disseminate public
awareness materials on pelicans
(poster, films, car stickers etc)
4- Reduce disturbance at breeding and
feeding times, and particularly at the
breeding site
5- Prepare/publish a plan for
emergency rescue of the populations
6- Investigate possibility of
establishing an artificial breeding site
in safe areas of satellite wetlands
7- Investigate Pelican samples for
pollution and/or diseases impacts
(including eggshell thinning)
8- Support scientific studies such as
PHD and M.S.Thesis
1- Publish report on the present status
and
ecological requirements and provide
Short-term and Long-term
management suggestions ( develop
management plan for species)
2- Determine the natural grazing
93
R/P
R: DOE
P: Shilat,
Local
communities,
NGOs,
Universities
R: DOE
P: Natural
Resource
Dept.,
Veterinary
Office,
NGOs,
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
APPENDIX A: CIWP MANAGEMENT PLAN-VERSION 2010
Objective 3: conservation of biodiversity, and sustainable use of the wetland resources
Priority Issues
Targets
Priority actions
R/P
(to be determined)
capacity of the rangelands in the
islands and publish the results
3- Planning for management and
protection of these species
4- Construct appropriate facilities for
drinking water (transfer of water from
Ghobadlou)
5- Assess the condition of health and
diseases of populations and necessary
actions for solving the problems
6- Investigate possibilities for genetic
improvement of the species and
publish the results
7- Prepare/publish a plan for
emergency rescue of the populations
8- Identify alternative abandonment
places
9- Support scientific studies such as
PHD and M.S. Thesis
1- Evaluate the Artemia resources and
prepare a map of dispersal and
abundance.
2- Undertake necessary studies on
possibility of restoring the Artemia
resources and increasing the
production capacity.
3- Evaluate the population of
unicellular algae and prepare a map of
dispersal and abundance.
4- Carry out necessary studies on
possibility of increasing the population
of Donaliella Algae and increasing the
production capacity.
5- Assess the Physicochemical
characteristics and pollutants in water
and its impact on Artemia population
6- Develop methodologies for
sustainable harvest of Artemia
resources (Traditional and industrial
harvests)
7- Management the traditional harvest
of Artemia by local communities.
8- Raising Public awareness (produce
and distribute educational and
awareness raising materials)
9- Support scientific studies such as
Water
authority
Short term:
- Determine the
safe capacity of
natural
rangelands
- Maintain the
present population
in
the islands
5. Population
of Artemia
in Lake
Urumia
Long term: 40
cysts
per liter
Short term: 25
cysts per liter
94
R:Fisheries,
Artemia
Research
Centre
P:DOE
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
APPENDIX A: CIWP MANAGEMENT PLAN-VERSION 2010
Objective 3: conservation of biodiversity, and sustainable use of the wetland resources
Priority Issues
Targets
6. Biodiversity
in river
systems
within the
Urumia
basin
Lon term: All the
main rivers in the
catchment
investigated and
management
measures
identified
and being
implemented
ST:
Reconnaissance
survey of all main
rivers 2 important
rivers investigated
and management
measures
identified
and being
implemented
Priority actions
PHD and M.S. Thesis
1- Undertake reconnaissance survey of
all main rivers (and deltaic sections) to
identify and map management status
(naturalness), main threats and
sections of rivers with significant
biodiversity importance. Publish the
results.
2- Carry out study to determine the
minimum environmental flows of the
important rivers, and publish the
results.
3- Hold workshop on river
biodiversity and
management
4- Special focus on deltas as high
priority areas for Biodiversity
5- Launch demonstration project for
two rivers to manage and restore
important biodiversity features.
95
R/P
R: DOE and
Natural
Resources
P:
Shilat,
LC
(Fishermen,
Hunters,
Reed
harvesters,
etc),
NGOs,
Universities
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
96
MANAGING CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES ALLOCATION
APPENDIX B: INTERVIEW PROTOCOL AND SUMMARY OF INTERVIEWS
Appendix B: Interview protocol and summary of interviews
This part is removed due to confidentiality
97