Allianz Global Investors Options: A Compelling Opportunity to Enhance Equity May 2017 Jeff Sheran, CFA Managing Director +1 (212) 739-3034 For Institutional Use in One on One Presentations Only. STR.SA250.CM.IMF.PBK.NY.1703 | 151406 Options: A Compelling Opportunity to Enhance Equity The efficiency of US large-cap equity is driving a massive shift to passive investing But equity is too big an allocation in which to ‘punt’ on outperformance Look to options 2 Benefits of Enhancing Equity via Options Low correlation profile – Outperformance potential independent of market movements – Asymmetric ability to outperform in both up and down markets Non-directionality – No need to correctly forecast the market Both return potential and risk management – Options’ versatility enables portfolios to optimize the balance between return and risk 3 Option Characteristics The right to buy or sell an underlying asset at a specific price on a certain date – Can be traded on a stock, an index, or other types of assets – Insurance analogy Multiple pricing factors – Terrific opportunity for mathematical innovation Exchange-traded instruments – Liquidity, transparency, daily pricing – Sophisticated but easy to implement 4 Option Building Blocks Expected Payoff Examples Put options Put Option (S&P 500 Index options) - Holder can sell the underlying to the writer at a given price at expiration Seller 1,405 Put $600 Buyer $400 Payoff $200 - Holder is expecting the underlying to decline in value -$200 -$400 - Writer (seller) collects ‘premium’ in exchange for downside risk Call options -$600 -10 - Writer (seller) collects ‘premium’ in exchange for upside risk -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 S&P 500 Index Level (%) Call Option (S&P 500 Index options) Seller 1,405 Call $600 - Holder can buy the underlying from the writer at a given price at expiration Buyer $400 $200 Payoff - Holder is expecting the underlying to increase in value $0 $0 -$200 -$400 -$600 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 S&P 500 Index Level (%) The above information is intended for general educational purposes only and illustrates limited examples of certain characteristics and/or of behavior patterns for particular types of options and/or markets. See additional disclosure at the end of this presentation. 5 Observations About Options Puts are typically overpriced – The world is long equity – Excess demand for hedging Calls are typically underpriced – Call writing is a widely used strategy – Sellers may not be compensated enough for the risk of forgoing equity appreciation Implied volatility typically exceeds realized volatility – VIX Index (‘Investor Fear Gauge’) overstates risk of a market decline… – …But not always OCFPOI4 6 ‘Long Volatility’ Strategies PROS Designed to generate profits in highly volatile markets Provides tail-risk protection against market shocks CONS Very costly due to time-premium erosion and implied-over-realized spread Often relies on uncommonly large market move for strategy to pay off 7 ‘Short Volatility’ Strategies PROS CONS Designed for consistent profits in normal markets Tail risk exposure: Can the strategy survive a market shock? Time is on your side, as is implied-over-realized spread Rely on history repeating itself 8 Combination ‘Long-Short’ Strategies Extract positive features from both exposures Less dependent on direction of volatility Challenge is to avoid a zero-sum game 9 You Don’t Have to Index Unlike large-cap equity, options provide sustainable excess return potential Potential for much higher information ratio than passive or traditional active equity Pursue alpha where otherwise resigned to just index-like results
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