TWO STATISTICAL MODELS ON EUROPEAN
AND CROATIAN INFORMATION SOCIETY
Prof. Božidar Tepeš
Faculty of Teacher Education, University of Zagreb
Mr. Ivan Mijić
Diplomatic Academy, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and
European Integration, Croatia
Krunoslav Tepeš
Prof. Božidar Tepeš
Office
for Transport Planning, City of Zagreb
Faculty of Teacher Education, City
University
of Zagreb
Mr. Ivan Mijić
Diplomatic Academy, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and European Integration, Croatia
Krunoslav Tepeš
City Office for Transport Planning, City of Zagreb
1
Two statistical models on European and
Croatian information society
 Information society
 Benchmark indicators
 Factor analysis
 Causal model
 Some new results
 Conclusion
2
Information society
 From statistical point of view, Information society (IS) is
connected with Information and communication
technology (ICT).
 Organisation for economic and co-operation and
development (OECD) presented conceptual model of IS
with elements:
 ICT supply (producers and production ICT goods and services)
 ICT demand (users and uses, households, individuals and
businesses)
 ICT infrastructure (investments and services)
 ICT products and content (price, quality and flows of information)
 ICT demand and ICT infrastructure as part of IS are
electronic commerce (e-commerce)
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Benchmark indicators
 EU Commission (2002) presented the eEurope 2005 Action Plan. This
provides policy actions for European institutions and member states to
accelerate the development of the IS in Europe.
 Commission proposes fourteen policy indicators and twenty two
supplementary indicators.
 For candidate countries indicators are benchmarks indicators.
 Eight basic benchmarks were used in this article:








Percentage of households or individuals having access to the Internet at home (A1)
Percentage of individuals regularly using the Internet (A2)
Percentage of persons employed using computers connected to the Internet (B1)
Number of basic public services fully available6 on-line (D1)
Percentage of population using Internet to seek health (F1)
Percentage of enterprises total turnover from e-commerce (G1)
Percentage of enterprises with broadband access (J1)
Percentage of households or individuals with broadband access (J2)
 Eurostat has benchmarks data for EU countries.
 Central bureau of statistics of Croatia and IDC Adriatics have
benchmarks data for Croatia.
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Factor analysis
 From Eurostat statistics, we are using eight measured
variables (benchmarks indicators) for twenty seven EU
countries for six years.
 Using statistical software Statistica first factor or principle
component describe 75%¸of total variance of all measured
variables.
 We named this first factor Intensity of IS (Y). The relation
between first factor and measured variables is:
Y  0,947 A1  0,933 A2  0,886 B1  0,756 D1
 0,871F1  0,879G1  0,834 J 1  0,916 J 2
5
Intensity of IS
Development of IS
(Factor analysis)
Intensity of IS
(First factor)
2
1
United Kingdom
0
France
-1
Germany
-2
Croatia
-3
Romania
-4
Bulgaria
-5
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Year
6
Causal structure
A
1
 We are looking for partial
correlation coefficients
between two measured
variables and all others.
 Six partial coefficients in
Table 1. are absolutely
greater than 0.3
 Causal structure are in
Picture 1.
A1
A2
B1
D1
F1
0.5
1
G1
J1
J2
- 0.80
A2
0.3
1
0.3
5
B1
D1
0.40
F1
G1
J1
0.47
J2
B1
A2
F1
A1
J1
J2
D1
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Causal model
 For causal model we are looking for causal V-structure
ACB when partial correlation coefficients are
|AB.C|>0.3.
 V-structure, representing two causes A and B have a
common effect C, act the opposite way.
B1
A2
F1
A1
J1
J2
D1
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Some new results
Intensity of IS
Development of IS (FA and CM)
2
1
UK
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
2003
F
D
H-FA
R
B
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
H-CM
Yare
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Conclusion
 Our research of IS form statistical point of view is statistical


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modeling of IS.
Model show causal structure of IS and the most important
goals for development of IS.
We can see position of Croatia in development of IS or
knowledge society.
Our model have only eight measured variables, and more
realistic model of IS must have more variables. At the same
time, period of research was only four year for Croatia.
Development of IS is connected with globalization and model
of IS must include more countries than EU countries.
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Thank you for your attention!
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