2017_78: Socio-economic opportunities for habitat
restoration in the Atlantic Forest of Brazil with cobenefits for local livelihoods
Supervisors: Dr Piero Visconti ([email protected]), Dr Morena Mills (Life
Science), Imperial College, Dr Noelle Kuempel (ZSL)
Department: Zoological Society London / Life Sciences
The Atlantic Forest of Brazil has lost 85% of its native forest and with this several
species endemic to this region. Because of unpaid extinction debt in the forest,
safeguarding its flora and fauna requires restoring native forest to reach at least 30%
of its original extent (1). This is challenged by increasing pressures on the forest
through population growth in urban and suburban areas, and increased demand for
land for timber and agricultural products. In the Atlantic Forest, some of the
mechanisms through which opportunities for restoration are created include reduction
in rural population, adoption of sustainable practices for timber extraction, cropland
and livestock production intensification, or changes in food consumption patterns.
Creating opportunities for restoration may require socio-economic changes that can
positively contribute to sustainable development goals.
We seek a student interested in using existing empirical data, scenario back-cast
processes and diffusion of innovation theory to identify alternative future socioeconomic pathways for restoration of the Atlantic Forest in Brazil that achieve cobenefits for local development, including reducing hunger and poverty, and provide
safe and healthy housing for people. We seek to answer: Given existing socioeconomic conditions, how likely is it that existing initiatives and processes driving
restoration will achieve the sustainable development goals? And, what socioeconomic changes are needed to allow the implementation of the required restoration?
To answer the first question we will use the diffusion of innovation theory, a theory that
seeks to explain how, why, and at what rate new ideas and actions spread (2)
combined with network modelling (3). To answer the second question we will use back
casting techniques, which approach this problem from the opposite angle by
identifying what socio-economic conditions must be in place to facilitate a desired
outcome. Pathways that lead to a desirable level of each of these drivers of
opportunities for restoration can be obtained through back-casting general or partial
equilibrium economic models. The process starts with defining a desirable end-point,
For more information on how to apply visit us at www.imperial.ac.uk/changingplanet
Science and Solutions for a Changing Planet
the socio-economic pathway is then developed by working backwards from then to the
present via a series of demographic, technological, cultural and economic changes
obtained by back-solving the economic models (4). Thus, during the course of this
project the student will combine theory of innovation with back-casting techniques of
economic equilibrium models, with the training and support of the supervisory team.
We seek an enthusiastic student interested in combining methods from social science,
economics and ecology to answer practical conservation questions. The student will
develop interdisciplinary skills including extensive expertise in modelling, decision
science for conservation and understanding of sociological theory.
1. Banks-Leite, C., R. Pardini, L. R. Tambosi, W. D. Pearse, A. A. Bueno, R. T.
Bruscagin, T. H. Condez, M. Dixo, A. T. Igari, and A. C. Martensen. 2014. Science
345:1041-1045
2. Rogers, E. M. 2010. Diffusion of innovations. Simon and Schuster
3. Valente TWTW. Network models of the diffusion of innovations 1995
4. PBL Nederland Environmental Assessment Agency. Roads from Rio+20 Pathways
to achieve global sustainability goals by 2050. The Hague, The Nederlands2012.
For more information on how to apply visit us at www.imperial.ac.uk/changingplanet